We’re divvying up the spoiler to make sure we give you a wide variety of opinions about the cards in the last core set for Magic. We all have different opinion,s but we are all experienced Magic financiers and we all strive for excellence. I was assigned “artifacts, multicolors spells, and EDH cards.” Anyway, here’s all the green cards.
By: Houston Whitehead
One evening, after work, I received a text saying, “They’re here. Want to come over?” It was from my future roommate letting me know his dad’s Magic cards from California had arrived. All he told me about was, “They’re f*%&ing old.” That’s more than enough to get me excited to go digging for buried treasure. After picking through the collection I found a few competitive gems, like both Sword of Light and Shadow and Sword of Fire and Ice, but most of the value settles in multiple playsets of Glimpse the Unthinkable and Doubling Season. Keep in mind this was 2013 so Doubling Season was $30+ and Glimpse the Unthinkable was $25 (lower than it is currently).
Stacks of other “casual” cards were quickly turning this collection from hundreds to thousands in less than a half an hour. After we finished he said, “I bet you need a lot of this stuff, don’t you.” I replied, “To be honest, just the two swords.” After a confused expression was thrown my way I tried to explain the best I could. “Card value doesn’t always reflect the tournament playability of a card. Sometimes less competitive formats can have just as much demand.“ I talked more about the limited amount of MTG financial knowledge I had and explained the effects of reprints (or lack of), bannings, unbannings, and the varying stability of different formats. It sounds impressive when I list it like that but I promise it wasn’t. I still had a lot to learn as well.
I didn’t give casual card value anymore thought until I started working at my LGS. Valuable Commander cards and casual cards many times overlap, but the growth of Commander was starting to apply more pressure on our inventory. I made or filled up all the $1, $2, and $3 binders with these styles of cards and had a hard time keeping a few cards in stock. I went even deeper by placing cards like Dream Twist in the case for .50 next to Traumatize and Mind Funeral. This experiment also brought some success.
Last week I thought about what qualifies a casual card. The closest place to find kitchen table decklists is TappedOut but we don’t have a place to see how those players deckbuild. It’s doubtful they have trends and meta changes cause every kitchen table is different. Most of the time you play with what you opened in packs and buy a few more to make it a little sweeter. I wanted to find a way to find those extra cards. Single sales is probably the best way to determine but I don’t have access to online retailer’s sales statistics. Closest thing I thought of was buylists. When I was at GP Nashville I saw “Quicksilver Amulet” for $3 on a buylist. I had a bunch in a box at home but never thought adding them to my backpack for the day would make me money.
Any financier understands the value of a buylist but I doubt that will unlock all the casual desirable since each inventory varies by retailer. So, I attempted to breakdown each theme that qualifies a potential gainer inside the casual market.
*Keep in mind these strategies can overlap but are predominantly satisfy one type of theme*
Committed Themes – Cards that are good at one thing and help achieve a basic/simple goal. These decks are built with cards that revolve around this commitment.
Lifegain – Gain life until to you make a 10 min. game into a 5 hour game.
Synergistic Themes – Cards that require assistance from other cards to achieve a more complex goal.
Tribal – Any card that cares about a creature type. Goblins, merfolk, and elves, Lorwyn Block, slivers, wizards, rebels, etc. Usually involve “lords” that grant abilities or extra power and toughness while they are on the battlefield.
Identifying the most popular archetypes was my first step in identifying the casual cards with the most gain potential. Desired commons and uncommons can hold foil value like the Foil Invasion Heroes’ Reunion ($2.50) or Foil Hedron Crab ($8). These are prices an everyday player or store might not be aware of. Sadly, gaining value on casual cards takes patience but at least they’re the easiest to pick up. Adding potential casual cards to your mental list of cards to pick from collections, might surprise your wallet later. I actually have a thousand count box to place these investments in. My Non-Standard binder isn’t shy of casuals like Isochron Scepter and Browbeat either. I practice what I preach.
In Casual Gains #2: Identify, I’ll talk more about specific cards and prices inside each theme.
As always thanks for reading
By: Houston Whitehead
Though the majority of the MTG community seems to be in an uproar about the amount of value placed in Modern Masters 2015, profit can still be accumulated. As with many sets, cracking cardboard lottery tickets to push out those last few proxies in your Modern deck is not a road worth traveling. In fact, I wouldn’t take a road at all. I want to sit in a lawn chair off the beaten path with sunscreen on my nose and wait for the tidal wave of Modern Masters 2015 singles to wreck the complacent prices that have become accepted as part of a Modern player’s life.
Normally, a Financial Five article will cover five new cards from an upcoming release I deem to possess profitable potential. Since Modern Masters 2015 contains 100% reprints, we already know many of the roles it plays or decks lists play four copies.
We all know…
…reprints bring prices down (unless you’re Tarmogoyf).
…format staple prices will recover over time (proven by the first Modern Masters).
…Modern will never be as cheap as you want it to be.
So this time on Financial Five, we’re going to discuss five cards worth picking up at the bottom of their financial decent that also have the most potential to recover over time.
From four copies in the UWR Control deck down to a double copy in Splinter Twin variants, it’s the Swiss army knife every blue player loves and everyone else hates. The top shelf $60 price tag was simply out of reach for anyone wanting to dip their toes into Modern with being forced to play the handful of budget aggro decks. During the early months of 2014 (six months after the Modern Master release) Cryptic sat at an understandable $25. I think the 2015 print will bring it back to that desirable price and slowly start to creep back up as early as the Origins release. Pick up $25 or under.
Starting at $50, Karn has already taken a couple steps down but I don’t think he’s done yet. Though he honestly only sees competitive play in TRON variants, I think Commander players will have a large influence on recovering his price. Though the recovery will be slower than Modern staples, like Cryptic Command or Noble Hierarch, I think he will land $25 or under and creep up in the long run. Pick up $25 or under.
Love it, hate it, or still want it banned, we have to respect the power of Splinter Twin. Over the last year this card alone has spawned so many variants you’d have to go to college to count that high. It’s the definition of a format staple and a worthy reprint. Twin’s price wasn’t out of control yet but was clearly teetering on the edge. I expect the bottom price to land around $10 and stay close to it for the next year. Pick up $10 or under.
This little 0/4 has been the chief of Splinter Twin’s security detail for close to three years. It’s won over a slot in Modern and Legacy Infect lists and, more importantly, can take a bolt. Though Spellskite’s price has been increasing faster than Meandering Towershell, I still feel a $10 price tag should be the lowest it will go before heading back up. Pick up $25 $10 or under and your future sideboards will thank you.
Let’s be honest, this price was getting WAY out of hand. I doubt Modern Masters 2015 will drop Noble low enough to satisfy every Modern player, but she sees too much competitive play to fall into a $10 range. I honestly feel $30 will be a reasonable price to go in at. You could get greedy and wait for a lower bottom but it won’t take long for the price to ascend quickly after hitting the bottom. Its existence in Infect, Zoo, and a variety of Junk (Abzan) decks will welcome all those looking to investing in Modern therefore keeping her demand high. If supply can’t keep up with all the new Modern players she might be back at $50 before you know it. Pick up $30 or under.
I’m excited for the Modern Masters 2015 Limited format but don’t feel popping open $10 lottery tickets have enough to reward me financially. I think attacking trade binders and single cases is the best way to unlock those decks you have been wanting to pilot. I’m still thankful for the Modern Masters series Wizards of the Coast is printing though. Las Vegas weekend is going to be one for the record books.
If you’re attending Grand Prix Las Vegas and want to meet, hit me up on Twitter.
As always thanks for reading
Usually I write a column called Financial Five on Brainstorm Brewery at each set release. This column highlights my top five cards worth speculating on in the new Standard environment. With MTGPrice now sponsoring BSB, I reached out and was glad to be asked to join this team of knowledgeable MTG finance juggernauts.
With so much going on, my Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) article was caught in limbo during the website transition and couldn’t post until after Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir.
I still see value in my original FF: DTK article and want to find a way to relay that experience to you. The below points aren’t me saying, “I could have told you where ‘X’s’ price was going to land.” Rather, I’m revisiting some of the things I originally thought to help us all understand price changes from a set’s prerelease to after the Pro Tour. I learn something about finance every time a new set comes out. (And for those who dislike staring at graphs, this is a price fluctuation overview of DTK.)
The prices cited below are release-day prices. Here’s what I said about the cards I called:
ndead Vizier – $4 – Finding a creature to extort is not a problem in this metagame. Sidisi helps you break midrange mirrors and blocks well.
Icefall Regent – $2 or less – I was so close to switching this with Hidden Dragonslayer, but ultimately felt it didn’t have as much room to move up.
Am I thinking too far ahead? Maybe. As you’ll find out in my next article, I take some unique or unconventional approaches to trading and finance. It pays to be prepared, though.
I understand this article wasn’t chock-full of financial recommendations, but I do hope it can give you a little insight on how prices behave from a set’s prerelease to after the Pro Tour.
Let my correct predictions excite you for future Financial Five articles and let my screw-ups give you an excuse to send me a tweet saying, “How did you miss that?!?!”
As always, thanks for reading.
