Tag Archives: Shadows Over Innistrad

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Being Goal Oriented

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This article is going to sound a little more like an MTG Lifestyle article and not so much an MTG Finance article.  Truth be told, there’s not a whole lot to write about until Shadows over Innistrad is released to the wild and we start getting tournament results.

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What do you want to do in Magic?

No, seriously.  What are your goals? How do you enjoy Magic?  The first step to figuring out how to approach Magic (or anything in life really) is to take a step back and analyze why you are doing what you’re doing.  Some people might say “I want to play FNM competitively every Friday.”  Others might have more lofty goals like “I want to play on the Pro Tour” or “I want to travel and play in Grands Prix.”  It’s best to support these larger overarching goals with smaller more manageable goals to keep track of your progress.  You could have some smaller financial goals that will help you support this such as “I want to own an Affinity deck for Modern.”

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Breaking down a goal

Since I’m supposed to write about financial goals, I’ll take the “I want to own Affinity” and explain how I would suggest breaking it down.  Eventually you can get to the micro level of “I want to own 4 Arcbound Ravagers” and that’s probably the best place to start.  The next thing to do is impose some rules on how you will achieve this goal (assuming there aren’t already rules.)  If it’s as easy as going to the store and buying 4 Arcbound Ravagers then you probably didn’t need that as a goal.  There wasn’t any work involved in achieving it.  It could be as simple as “I want to trade for 4 Arcbound Ravagers” or “I want 4 foil Arcbound Ravagers.”  But give yourself something to work toward that you can measure your success with.  It feels lot better.

Good MTG Finance Goals

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If you want to build a deck the best thing to start with is buying local.  Get involved on your local MTG Facebook groups.  Talk to people at your shops and become friends with as many people as possible.  Whenever possible you want to  buy and sell locally.  It removes the extra cost to shipping, fees, and buylists.  Obviously it’s more work but a good network is worth a lot more as you put the work in.  Often you can find people who would have just sold to a local buylist and you can offer them more to buy it from them.  As an example, I bought most of the expeditions for my Modern deck from local players.  I offered them slightly under TCG Low and slightly over local buylist prices so everyone left the table happy.

The next thing is to figure out when you “need” the card and buy it when it is probably at it’s cheapest.  I have good news here.  For 99% of cards there is no guessing as to when it will be the cheapest.  One major and easy to predict factor influences almost all cards.  Time!  If you are eyeing some new standard cards and don’t need them on release day, your best time to buy is around rotation.  Standard cards typically drop from their pre-ordering prices to their near time low the week before spoilers for the next block start (for example, Shadows over Innistrad cards will be the cheapest for Standard players in late August or early September).

Six Months before a card is expected to rotate it begins to decline.  This coincides with the Pro Tour of the second block to be released since it’s release.  For Shadows over Innistrad, this will be the spring Pro Tour of 2017.  If you’re not sure what to do with your Magic Origins and Dragons of Tarkir cards, the best time to look to sell is the weekend after the Shadows over Innistrad Pro Tour.  If you’re having a hard time knowing when to buy or sell a card, put a reminder in Google Calendar or in your phone to remind you.

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The last thing that I don’t think enough people do at their LGS is take prize support in store credit when you can.  While it can be tempting to bust those 15 or so packs you might have won during FNM, it would put you a lot closer to your long term goals to just ask if you can receive an equivalent in store credit.  Long term, your store credit should have the same amount of value and requires a lot less upkeep if you’re trying to save for specific cards to finish your decks.  When you look at booster packs as lottery tickets, it’s a lot less enticing to take your prize support in them.  Basically if you’re offered $50 in lottery tickets or $35 in cash, which would you take?

That’s all I got for you guys this week.  May your pre-releases be filled with many triple rare packs and tons of mythics!

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Occam’s Razor and the Collectible Renaissance

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I have a feeling many MTG finance eyes will be on three unrelated events: Shadows Over Innistrad’s release, banned and restricted updates for Modern specifically, and the gradual spoiling of Eternal Masters.  Each of these separate events will have a very profound impact on card prices, and it’s likely many writers will cover each topic at length.  I will most certainly be chiming in with Modern and Legacy impact once we have more information.

As for Standard – I tried to place a few small bets, picking up a handful of creature lands.  After seeing the new rare land cycle in Shadows Over Innistrad, however, I fear I placed my money on a slower horse.  The Battle Lands have all been rising steadily these last few weeks, and I can only hope the creature lands also find a home in Standard.  Until then I’ll remain comforted by the fact that these remain near their bottom and should not drop lower in price.

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But there’s one trend that is gradually unfolding, which I think will have a profound impact on the MTG market.  Most importantly of all, I believe this trend is occurring so slowly and so out of focus that it’s happening under the radar.  People would only notice this trend if they paid extremely close attention to this market, and not many do.

Interested?  Here’s the good news – I do pay attention.  And this week I’ll share my most recent observations along with some future predictions that can help you make some well-placed and timely investments in MTG.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Accumulated Knowledge

PROTRADER: More Recalibrating or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Goldnight Castigator

AUTHOR’S NOTE: We are really jumping in on the deep end this week. Be ready!

I’m gonna start by stating something that really took me a while to realize that you may or may not have noticed. Magic, just like every other thing involving multiple parts, has a formula. It has since Alpha, and it continues through Shadows over Innistrad. Now, that formula has certainly changed, both in the short and long term sensabilities, and the definitions of what those pieces are have expanded, but that’s just part of organic growth. Before I get too much further, let me show you what I mean:

  • Every large Magic set needs a Wrath of God (“Destroy all Creatures”) effect.
  • Every large Magic set wants between 2 and 4 Planeswalkers.
  • Every large Magic set needs a degree of mana fixing, typically with dual land cycles at more than one rarity.
  • Every large Magic set needs to have some form of the most basic utility spells (Disenchant, Shatter effects) at Common or Uncommon.

Do you see what I’m trying to get at? Even though Alpha iconics like Wrath of God and Birds of Paradise are no longer themselves part of the formula, their legacy is. Now, this is being written before the rest of the set is dumped on Friday, but we’ve already seen some of the new underclassmen for these staple effects.

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Casual Fridays

Mythic Predictions for Shadows over Innistrad

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The full spoiler is (probably) going to land today but since I have to write ahead of time, I always feel a little caught.

I want to go over the previewed mythics and make some predictions, not about how much they are now, but where they will be in about a month.

As always, I don’t think you should pre-order anything, as it’s almost always a better plan to wait a little for the hype to die down. (I’m looking straight at you, $15 Thing in the Ice!)

Sorin, Grim Nemesis

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I like that he lets you draw and punish all at the same time. It’s pretty awesome to boost yourself up and then push others down. However, he can only deal with one problem at a time, as compared to other good six-mana planeswalkers, like Chandra, Flamecaller or Elspeth, Sun’s Champion. I think he’s got really great potential for top-of-the-library shenanigans, like Worldly Tutor for Draco. At his cost, and with these abilities, I wouldn’t expect him to be much more than $15.

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets

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This plus ability is amazingly good. It’s a Scry 1 short of a card too good for Modern! You dig fast and have much more control over getting what you need. This is a pretty mediocre Commander card, until you get to the ultimate, which is the epitome of what every annoying blue deck wants to do. Five mana is not unreasonable, and he does get to come down and bounce a problem away, at which point the control player starts plusing away. I can see this getting some play, though it would be so much better with a four-mana wrath effect to play the turn before playing this. I think his price will bounce between $10 at first and bounce up to $20-$25 when the control deck appears.

Nahiri, the Harbinger 

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Now we are talking. Four mana and can come down, solve a problem, and then start drawing/enabling Madness effects. Plus, it’s totally reasonable to play Nahiri, exile something, let her get attacked, then play another Nahiri. Multiples can also get discarded away easily with the plus ability. Exiling the target is super-relevant as well. I like Nahiri, though her ultimate is pretty uninspiring. It’s kind of a rough time to be enemy-colored, though, and I think that will keep her around $15-$20.

Arlinn Kord 

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Oh the flavor. I love the flavor on this card, and I think she’s much stronger than she appears. You have such flexibility on what you can do with her, and that’s key. You can make a creature big, vigilant, and hasty (so it can defend her) or you can make a token and flip. Then it’s time to be offensive or defensive and as long as you can plan a turn or two ahead, she’s going to dominate. Plus, at four mana in the ramp colors, she’s frequently going to be on the board a turn early. I think she’s going to see a lot of play in decks that want to play a lot of creatures, and likely stabilize in the $10-$15 range.

The Gitrog Monster 

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Conveniently, Groundskeeper is in this set too, and while I love the late game of sacrificing extra lands to draw cards, he’s going to make you jump (hop?) through too many hoops. I don’t think this will stay over $5 for long.

Archangel Avacyn 

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Flash, Flying, Vigilance is already amazing. Transforming her is going to be all up to you and your deck, though, because your opponent is going to kill her first. If your deck is full of cheap, disposable creatures, they will also die when she flips, and she’s got no protection. I love her flavor, and it’s a great story card, but I don’t see right now what she is besides the front side. Casual appeal will keep her foils high, but she won’t break $10.

Behold the Beyond – Bulk mythic. Just look at how much play Diabolic Revelation gets.

Geralf’s Masterpiece – Being able to bring it back might be relevant, but so few decks will want to pay this cost. Bulk.

Mindwrack Demon – Four mana for a 4/5 flying trample would seems to be worth the risk of four life a turn. It’s a risk, but it has potential as a curve-topper in an aggressive deck. I have a hard time believing this stays at more than a buck or two, though.

Seasons Past – We’ve had other mega-Regrowth effects before, like Praetor’s Counsel, and that was never very expensive. This will likely stay just above $2.

Wolf of Devil’s Breach – As a Madness enabler, this is rather outstanding. You can’t pitch the card at your opponent directly, but there are going to be decks that use this to great effect. The Wolf is Fiery Temper‘s best friend, distributing three damage twice for three mana. I don’t think every deck wants this, but I do think enough will to keep it around $3-$5.

Ulvenwald Hydra – A fixed Primeval Titan? Really?? I’m going to have to think about this for Standard but I can tell you that this is going to be a chase Commander card.  Finding one land is unexciting in some decks, and Gaea’s Cradle-broken in others. Nonfoils won’t be more than $5, but I would expect foils to be in the $20 range.

Goldnight Castigator – This is a bad card. This is as all-in as you can get, four hasty power that if you attack, effectively halves your life total. Don’t play this. Ever. Bulk.

Relentless Dead 

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If you need something to sacrifice for value, here you go. It’s efficient, resilient, and entering a phase of Magic where exile spells are incredibly common. No, really, I mean it. We’ve got more exile effects than I ever can recall at once and this poor guy is going to take the brunt of it. I love the art, recalling Endless Ranks of the Dead, and while I want this to be good…he’s going to be steady at about $3.

Olivia, Mobilized for War

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One thing the last round of Madness cards taught us is that you want to have free discard effects, such as Psychatog. Olivia isn’t quite free, as you are playing a creature, but the potential is there. A 3/3 flying for three mana is an excellent starting point too. She will hold at about $5, because extra copies of her just get used as fuel for the next creature you play.

Sigarda, Heron’s Grace – Please don’t play this thinking she has hexproof. She’s got a big target on her, and while I like her ability to play a long game and grow a quick army, I don’t think she will stay at more than a dollar or two.

Descend upon the Sinful – This is a powerful card, but it’s got a high mana cost. The tools are there for a classic control deck, between this and Planar Outburst. Wiping the board and having a creature left behind is pretty amazing, though. I like this a lot as a Commander card too, as it’s a strict upgrade over Final Judgement, a card that doesn’t see enough play. This will not break $5, though.

Startled Awake – How much do we love mill cards! This has its own built-in recursion, but it’s slow and imperfect. Skulk is not unblockability, a 1/1 or any zero-power creature can block it, ruining your nefarious plan. This is going to win a lot of Limited games and not much else, though I can see the foils of this going for a high premium. This will struggle to not be bulk.