MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 40

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Nov 3rd, 2016

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Note: Price movements reflect posted NM prices, and may not represent prices players have paid.

Pact of the Titan (Future Sight, Rare)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $6.00
Gain: +$5.00 (+480%)

Leovold, Emissary of Trest (CSP2, Foil Mythic)
Start: $135.00
Finish: $325.00
Gain: +$190.00 (+141%)

Memory Jar (Foil, Eventide, Uncommon )
Start: $41.00
Finish: $62.00
Gain: +$21.00 (+51%)


Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

    1. Mirrorpool (Oath, Mythic), Confidence Level 7: $1.50 to $6.00 (+300%, 12+ months)
    2. Linvala, the Preserver (Oath, Mythic), Confidence Level 7: $2 to $6 (+200%, 12+ months)
    3. Kozilek, the Great Distortion (Oath, Mythic), Confidence Level 6: $2.50 to $8.00 (+220%, 12+ months)

Travis Picks:

  1. Chromatic Lantern, (C16), Confidence Level 7: $3.00 to $6.00 (+100%, 12+ months)
  2. Eldrazi Displacer, (Oath, Foil Rare), Confidence Level 7: $10.00 to $25.00 (+150%, 12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.


Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The guys talked over the plethora of interesting decks coming out of Japan related to the new Frontier format.

Segment 4: Metagame Week in Review

In a lengthy analysis segment Travis and James talk over the new SpecScore method for evaluating Magic: The Gathering speculative targets.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

The Return of the Curve

Oh, what a good day this is. We’ve had a few weeks since the announcement that Standard is back to one rotation per year, and I couldn’t be more excited.

It’s not exactly the same as it was, and that’s going to be an issue going forward. Shadows over Innistrad and Eldritch Moon are going to rotate at the same time as Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch. My tendency is to assume that things are the same as they were, and that’s not the case. Rotation is not equal, some are 18 months and some are 24 months.

When the change was announced, there was a big winner: Gideon, Ally of Zendikar.

gideon

Gideon’s gained more than $10 since then, and I love seeing this curve come back. About a year after a card came out, there would be something to happen to trigger demand on the card, and here we are, seeing that increase in demand.

The increase in time really benefits Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch, which gained six months. So today I want to look at some cards from those sets which have some potential and can give us some strong gains. One of the things I really look for is a low buy-in price. If I’m not spending much, that means I’m at a low risk of losing value if these speculative picks don’t pay off.

Regrettably, some of these won’t pay but the ones that do are really going to make me look good and make my wallet happy.

Part the Waterveil – $3.64 – Every kooky blue deck tends to play this as a finisher. Chaining them together is generally good enough, but I think there’s going to be a Metallurgic Summoning deck eventually, and this is going to be the top end of that deck. If nothing else, it’s an extra turns card, and those have proven to have some long-term casual appeal. With the exception of Temporal Trespass, at least.

Ob Nixilis, Reignited – $4.58 – I don’t care that it’s a Duel Deck card. It’s got room to grow. It’s incredibly effective at any point in the game, it’s powerful, and it’s still got nearly a year to make a splash. People are resisting it, but remember how well it did at the Pro Tour.

Ruinous Path – $1.74 – Black decks have all the removal. Being able to spend mana and solve a problem on the board is incredibly powerful. I’ve touted this card before and while it’s not as good as Hero’s Downfall, it’s one of the best solutions to problems on the board. To the Slaughter has popped up in decks, and this is better by far.

Linvala, the Preserver – $2.42 – This small-set mythic isn’t going to be a four-of, but if Panharmonicon decks really take off, this would be a super fun addition, capable of three creatures and ten life! It’s good in control decks, as a top end and a card that can take a game you’re losing and turn it into a game you win.

Thought-Knot Seer – $5.85 – We haven’t been lacking for colorless lands, and with Aether Hub being one of the most popular lands around, colorless mana is going to remain a useful thing. Thought-Knot is one of the most powerful things you can do with this mana, and as a popular card in Modern, there’s a lot of value to be had still.

Chandra, Flamecaller – $7.04 – Don’t forget, there was a time that she was $35! She’s got the perfect first curve, as she was adopted initially. She has a problem where she doesn’t play well with the newer Chandra, Torch of Defiance, but that card is dropping fast and I think there’s good room for growth with the big-sister version. Imagine that at Pro Tour Aether Revolt, there’s a red deck that tops out at three of these. A double-up to $15 is the low end.

Eldrazi Mimic – $.91 – I have some high, high hopes for this card in the Metalwork Colossus decks. Barring that, as I’ve written before, I am optimistic about the Eternal potential of this card.

PROTRADER: Technically Commander 16 Part 2

Okay, so this is going to TECHNICALLY be the second half of my CMDR review, but instead of just mercilessly roasting the remaining terrible cards, I want to do something productive with (most of) my time. So instead of saying what these cards AREN’T, we are going to go into the lab and talk about what we were looking for in the first place. Then we’ll do some quick hits or whatever.

So there is this feature in sports video games where you can create your own player. This is either an opportunity for you to insert yourself into the action, carefully calibrating your own strengths and weaknesses to get a true-to-life experience, or you can BECOME A LIVING GOD. It’s really got a lot to do with personal projection, I suppose. Anyways, we are going to take that concept and apply it to these supplementary products. Because Commander products (henceforth including things like Planechase, Archenemy, Conspiracy, etc) don’t allow new cards to enter Standard or Modern, their only real tournament constructed outlet is Legacy1. Now, even though Legacy is a very deep format, it’s possible to set some basic benchmarks. These were the things I was looking for, but we will mention a few other elements as well:

A very serious feature.
A very serious feature.
       

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PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 11/3/16

So Commander 2016 lands in a week, and maybe some of you are checking your big box stores early. It’s not unheard of for them to stock these a day or two ahead of schedule.

This week I want to look at the listed prices and see where I can either buy low or sell high, even though you can’t quite get your hands on these yet, I like to plan ahead.

I want to be clear that if you can buy the decks on the first day, and then move out the singles, I don’t think that’s a winning play…mostly. The postage rate is going to be pretty high, unless you’ve got a great source for stamps, or you know someone who wants most of a deck.

That being said, these decks have a ton of value, and a lot of potential. Some people, who get stamps through work or some such, are going to really turn their $30 msrp into an easy 6000 points, but I just don’t have the time for that. If you do, more power to you. I’m properly envious of those who have the stamps and the spare time.

On to the cards!

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.