Monthly Archives: October 2021

Watchtower

More Modern

It’s been a few weeks since I took a proper look at the Modern format, so here I am back at it again with the Modern content this week. The metagame is still pretty diverse and looks to be healthy, so read on for what I think you should be picking up this week.

Spreading Seas (Foil)

Price in Europe: €12 ($14)
Price in US: $???
Possible price: $50

UW(x) control has been hovering around the top of the Modern metagame for a few weeks now with no sign of dropping, and that’s partly because it’s got some of the best answers in the format right now. With Prismatic Ending, Counterspell and Solitude in its arsenal there isn’t much that the deck can’t deal with, and Spreading Seas has been a consistent tool for the deck to battle against things like Urza’s Saga, Tron decks and greedy 3+ colour manabases.

I was quite surprised when I realised that Spreading Seas has only ever had a single printing, all the way back in original Zendikar (not Battle for Zendikar, Zendikar Rising or the yet-to-come Zendikar Resurrections). That means that, for a relatively popular Modern card that only has one printing 12 years ago, foils are now getting incredibly hard to come by. There aren’t any NM foils on TCGPlayer and the only LP foils are at $70 and $100 – pretty ridiculous prices for this little common.

Europe has a few more than that though, with a few NM foils under €15 and a good handful more under €20. I think that buying these under €15 is an easy flip over to the US to list on TCGPlayer for $40-50. Nobody’s paying $70 for LP foils of this, but if they see NM foils under $50 then they could well be tempted to snap a couple up for their Modern deck.

Lurrus of the Dream Den (EA)

Price today: $15
Possible price: $30

I think it’s time to talk about Lurrus again. I’ll try not to repeat too much of what’s been said before, but Lurrus is still a hugely dominating force in Modern and I don’t think that’s going to change any time soon. Three of the top decks in the format (Burn, Hammer Time and Jund) are playing Lurrus as a companion, and bans have been talked about quite a bit for this card. There’s been some discussion in the ProTrader Discord about it, and I’m of the mind that despite the power level and prevalence of this card, I don’t think that it’s ripe for a ban. It still allows for a variety of decks to be played and can be dealt with fairly handily by sideboard cards, and so isn’t oppressive enough to warrant a ban at the moment.

Despite its continued popularity, there’s been a dip in price over the past few weeks and I think now is a good time to capitalise on that. EA non-foils have dropped down to around $15, having been over $25 earlier in the summer, and I think that hitting that $25+ price point again won’t be any trouble at all for this card. A good data point here is that Lurrus EA non-foil is still around €25 ($29) in Europe, where Modern is possibly the most played format, and so I think that the TCG prices will reflect those in Europe before long.

Munitions Expert (Foil)

Price today: $5
Possible price: $15

Something a little more under the radar for today’s last pick, Goblin tribal has been putting up a decent showing in some Modern results over the past couple of weeks and I think it’s worth taking a look at. It’s utilising Ignoble Hierarch as some extra acceleration alongside the classic Æther Vial, which makes for a slightly trickier manabase but the fact that Hierarch is a Goblin means that cards like Cavern of Souls and Unclaimed Territory are very useful.

Munitions Expert is a consistent four-of in these lists, as it can pick off both creatures and planeswalkers that are getting in the way of pushing damage through, and having Flash for when you don’t have an Æther Vial in play can be huge.

Despite only being an uncommon, there are only seven listings left for NM foils of this on TCGPlayer. If you want foils for personal use then I’d snap them up sharpish, and a playset or two to spec on definitely won’t hurt you. There are a few more around the $4-5 mark in Europe too if you can get those, and if this deck takes off in Modern then I expect this to be $15 before long.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

The World Championship Decks and You

The World Championships are this weekend, and the format is Standard. Given that we don’t really have GP-level events yet (though SCG and CFB are trying!) and the maze to professional play is confusing, I normally wouldn’t be paying attention to Standard.

However, it’s a harbinger. I want to look for two things from these decklists, and from this event: What’s powerful from Standard that’s in Midnight Hunt (because that’s a set that’s legal for the next TWO years!) and what’s underpriced that’s poised to take a jump. Let’s dive in, shall we?

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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Unlocked Pro Trader: Past is Prologue

Readers!

We talk about how there are no “missed” specs, only opportunities to invest money elsewhere, and doesn’t it take a lot of experience and mental discipline to start to feel that way? When you miss the boat on a spec, it feels bad – doubly so if you wanted copies to play with as well. I won’t tell you we didn’t miss some stuff by virtue of ignoring it because it sounds like I’m making excuses for something it was too late to talk about – Wolves and Zombies going nuts. Predictably, very predictably, Wolves and Zombies got some extra attention with A Zombie precon and a Legendary Wolf creature in Innistrad: Team Jacob last week. We could do a post-mortem on what you should have bought so you know for next time, but we likely still would have under-estimated the demand based on how things shook out the last time we traveled to Innistrad. Instead, let’s look to the future and remind ourselves that way more people play EDH now than did 5 years ago and anything we get right here is bound to look even better in a few months.

It may be a bit too late for some Vampires, but not all specs are created equal. Do we expect Stromkirk Captain to be $9 just because Immerwolf went nuts? Not exactly, and any mitigating factors will be discussed here. However, we DO expect some movement, and we expect some reprints, too. So how do we get ahead of the movement and avoid the reprints? By doing what we always do – guessing.

Guessing with data, sure, but still guessing. Ultimately we may be way off-base with some of our guesses, but let’s look at some prices anyway, shall we?

Immerwolf has a very powerful effect, one printing, is the closest thing this tribe has to a Lord and is in the color of every wolf deck.

Stromkirk Captain has 2 printings, including one in a commander precon, is just another Lord in a deck with many and is in colors that aren’t always necessary to play in a Vampires deck considering there are a lot of White and White-Black Vampires in Ixalan. So do we expect this to do nothing? No, not exactly. The foils have only been printed once, can’t be in a precon and are basically gone from the internet. The foil basically went from $2 to $20 overnight, so that tells me the non-foils, preferred by actual EDH players anyway, are in play. At a $0.50 buy-in, these will buylist for a couple of bucks if not reprinted. Is the reprint risk kind of high? Yes, and that’s another reason why Captain can’t go off like Immerwolf did. Let’s look at cards with more potential.

WotC has said about 20 different times 20 different ways that they’re not putting DFCs in the precons. That means Bloodline Keeper has a basically 0% chance of a reprinting next month. This is already on a moonward trajectory, but these will be gone under $25 very soon and you’ll likely be able to get out closer to $40 than $20. This seems like a pretty sexy spec to me and $15 is just the beginning considering it got that high when the Vampire precon came out and more copies are in the hands of dealers than they were 3 years ago. All of this points to a pretty nice payday for people in a position to sell when the precon list is spoiled. Let’s be ahead of the curve instead of cursing ourselves for not predicting Gravecrawler would pop.

Foil Indulgent Aristocrat is a high buy-in at $10, but it also seems like the floor for now. Dealers seems skeptical given the high amount of daylight between retail and buylist.

Nocturnus is affordable and has been stable since the 2018 precon came out. However, it’s somewhat reprintable and while it’s obvious to people who built Vampires back in the day, it might not be obvious to new builders. I still think if you can get in under $10, and you very much can, it seems safe.

This seems like it mitigates reprint risk a bit by being kind of a weird Ixalan specific vampire. It doesn’t have a keyword ability or anything and it’s already gained a lot of value this year, so if you want to skip it, that is probably a decent call. Still, this is a card that doubles in price minimum under the right circumstances, so I would be remiss if I didn’t point out there was a chance for this.

This card is halfway between shrugging off its last reprint and flirting with $3 again. I think it gets there.

There are a few ways the deck can go. So far I’ve been looking at Edgar Markov lists for synergistic cards, but the different vamps have different high synergy cards.

Licia, Sanguine Tribune
Anje Falkenrath
Elenda, the Dusk Rose

I stuck with Edgar Markov because the Midnight Hunt precons were two color and they were the colors of the tribes in original Innistrad. That seems to basically rule out White vampires, but it doesn’t rule out a lifegain synergy rather than a +1/+1 counter one, so you could get ahead of the curve by correctly guessing the subtheme of the deck. You can buy specific cards when the decks are spoiled, but then you’re competing with everyone else and the whole point of thinking about this now is to avoid the rush later.

That does it for me this week, folks. Remember to go to the Vampire tribal page on EDHREC and look at the lists from every Vampire commander before you buy anything. Until next time!

Watchtower

Recycling Ikoria

Along with the not-so-beloved Throne of Eldraine, Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths has just left Standard rotation, and in the 18 months since its release we’ve seen some big ups and downs from a few cards in the set. A lot of the best cards have already been identified, and the time to buy Triomes as specs is long gone – but I think that there are still a few good cards that deserve our attention as Eternal and EDH options.

Shark Typhoon

Price today: $9
Possible price: $20

Remember when Shark Typhoon was a $2 rare, back before people realised that it was actually really good and not just a meme? I remember, and I wish I’d bought a bunch when it was that cheap – but I didn’t, because I too didn’t really think much of it at the time and got caught by surprise when it was suddenly $10 and then even $15 for a brief period. Now that it’s rotated out of Standard, this is an Eternal and EDH-only card, and there’s good reason it hasn’t crashed to bulk prices.

Ever since people realised this card was pretty good, it’s been a staple of control decks in Modern and even Legacy, as well as being included in almost 10,000 decks listed on EDHREC. I think that it’s here to stay as a minor staple in multiple formats, and I doubt that we’ll be seeing a reprint too soon – it’s unlikely we’ll see Cycling again in a Standard set in the near future, and although it’s possible we see it reprinted in a Commander deck, we had a Cycling deck in the 2020 lists so again it might not show up for a while.

I like the look of the regular non-foils here, because although there are around 125 non-foil listings for the card on TCGPlayer, most of those are single copies and will dry up steadily over the next few months or so. If you are worried about a reprint then I think that the EA versions are a great buy too. Currently sitting at around $14 I think that those could easily see a double up to around $30, and if you’re feeling a little splashier then I feel fairly confident calling the FEAs to go from $45 to $60+ as well (although there’s less meat on those bones than I’d really like, so the others are better specs for now).

Reconnaissance Mission

Price today: $0.40
Possible price: $3

Onto more of a bulk pickup now, and I’m really quite happy to have found this one. Reconnaissance Mission is just a strictly better Coastal Piracy, and for one of the top EDH uncommons from Ikoria I think it’s definitely underpriced at the moment. If we compare it to Bastion of Remembrance, another top uncommon from the set that does a similar thing to a fair few other cards, you’d think that Mission would be pretty close to Bastion in price – but it’s not at all. Bastion is in just over 20,000 decks listed on EDHREC and Mission hits 80% of that at nearly 16k, and yet Bastion is already a $3 card.

This is sure to be due for a correction sooner or later, and so I think that now is a great time to be picking some Reconnaissance Missions up. You can currently grab a bunch from TCGPlayer at around $0.40 each, and the fact that CardKingdom is already paying $0.33 credit for them makes me fairly confident about this pick. There are a bunch available even cheaper in Europe too, so if you’ve got access then those are nice pickups as well. I’d be looking to buylist these out in 12 months or so – this isn’t a huge play but it’s something easy to bulk up a buylist nicely.

Mythos of Snapdax (FEA)

Price today: $3.50
Possible price: $10

As the most popular of the Mythos(es?) from Ikoria, Mythos of Snapdax FEAs are starting to run a little thin on the ground. I think that if this were just a white card and not three colours then it would be in a lot more decks than it currently is, but as it stands I think the card is doing just fine. It’s effectively just a Tragic Arrogance at one mana cheaper, and as such has turned out to be a popular choice amongst Mardu enthusiasts.

TCGPlayer is down to around 30 listings for NM FEAs, and I think that this will be a nice steady climber over the $10 mark given 12-18months. It’s a card I want to pick up a playset or two of and forget about for a while – no immediate rush to grab them but I think that they will prove to be good gainers over the next year or so.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.