Category Archives: ProTrader

Danny Brown, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: PucaPro

May 19, 2015 Danny Brown 3 Comments

In just a few days, it will have been four months since I started using PucaTrade. Since then, I have more or less optimized my cube (which was no small task), gotten rid of a lot of junk I didn’t want weighing down my collection, and have spent zero dollars on Magic, aside from shipping, I suppose. It’s hard for me to overstate just how much use I have gotten out of this service in such a short time. If you’re not on board yet, you’re making a serious misplay.

This isn’t going to be a basics-of-PucaTrade style article. There have been plenty of those written, and the site is easy enough to use without me explaining it. Instead, I’ll be discussing some more specific strategies for using the platform to your advantage, as well as anticipating the best ways to adapt to several known updates that are already in the works.

PucaSavings

If you only see my summary on the site, then it looks like I haven’t done too well using PucaTrade:

“You have sent 200 cards with a total value of $903.68 and you have received 115 cards from other members with a total value of $699.31.”‘

Of course, that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Now things are looking much better. In my opinion, there is little point to being on PucaTrade if you aren’t able to request cards at a moment’s notice. For this reason, I never like to dip below 10,000 points, and in practice, I haven’t been under 20,000 points often at all.

In many ways, PucaTrade has become my primary way to attain cards, and I don’t want to miss out on good opportunities because I’ve spent all my points. If you’re a player needing to build decks at a moment’s notice, keeping a healthy supply of PucaPoints on hand is a great way to get the cards you need.

Another great benefit here is that I’ve shipped many cards that I expected were going down in value. In my article last week, many of the “sales” I discussed in anticipation of Modern Masters 2015 were, in fact, PucaTrade sends. If I had been trading these out at my LGS or a big event, I would have needed to find cards to receive in return, many of which would be less than ideal and not much better than what I was trading out. With PucaTrade, I was able to lock in value while I could, and have been storing that value for use at a later time. It’s glorious.

The Rhino in the Room

Of course, I’m well aware that letting this currency sit without gaining interest is inefficient. I could pick up over 50 Siege Rhinos with my current bankroll, and unless it gets included in a Duel Deck or something (what a gross thought), by the fall, I will almost certainly have made a hefty profit in either PucaPoints or cash—my choice. I am certainly picking up a dozen copies of a card here and a playset of a fringe spec there, but I still like to keep a good amount of points on hand. Besides, liquidating a huge pile of the same card through PucaTrade is not exactly easy, and things have to line up a lot better to make a profit buylisting.

The thing is, despite using PucaTrade as my primary MTG bankroll for the last few months, I have another reason to accrue points, and it relates to PucaTrade’s IndieGoGo campaign from a couple month’s back. Here’s the relevant section:

I’ve been a #mtgdad for almost a year now, and I’ve learned two things about it during that time:

Even with a supportive wife, getting out to play Magic is about ten times harder than it was pre-baby, and nowhere close to as attractive as kicking it at home with my son after a long day at work.
Drafting on Magic Online isn’t much better, given that I have to dedicate two to three hours and there’s no guarantee that the baby’s mood won’t change like sixteen times during that period. I’ve lost more than one game due to fussy-baby-caused misclicks or timeouts.

This means that I haven’t been playing nearly enough Magic in the last several months, and I don’t see my situation changing anytime soon. I continue to insist that Draft is the epitome of Fine Gaming™ (like fine arts, fine wines, fine cheeses, etc.), but because MTGO offers no way to play meaningful Limited games quickly, I think I’m going to have start looking into Constructed if I want to play more Magic within my current constraints.

I’ve messed with Standard, Block Constructed, and Pauper on MTGO in the past, but have not enjoyed them enough to do more than dabble and then taper off. What really catches my attention is Vintage.

Conveniently, MTG Goldfish’s metagame page lists the exact online prices for the top decks in the format. Ignoring Dredge and Workshop—because when I say I’m interested in Vintage, what I really mean is that I’m interested in playing Ancestral Recall and Time Walk—I can see that I will need roughly 700 tickets. This isn’t so bad when you consider these same decks are listing at around $15,000 in paper!

Still, this means that I’ve got some catch-up to do if I want to be on top of a Vintage deck when these PucaTrade updates go live. I’m also looking into the Facebook group dedicated for PucaPoint/ticket exchanges that Douglas Johnson mentioned in his article last week, as this was not a group of which I was previously aware. Maybe I won’t have to wait for PucaTrade’s updates, after all.

In my first article for MTGPrice, I pointed out that once you have a decent collection of cards together, you have a very liquid asset that you can use for any of your MTG needs, making playing for free—or at least not spending additional money—quite attainable for the average player. In this case, my goal is to play Vintage without spending any additional money (again, disregarding stamps and envelopes), and I’m sure I can do it. One of the greatest benefits to PucaTrade, especially once MTGO trading is added, is that you can turn your collection into anything you want it to be.

Perfect for Those Cards

I’ve touched on this before, but I feel like it’s important to point it out again because it’s such a crucial aspect to PucaTrade. I have speculated on many a card that has panned out, but only just.

For example, I’m pretty deep on Steam Vents, but unfortunately, got most of my copies for $8 each (in store credit) before the Dragon’s Maze reprint was announced. I traded for plenty more copies at $6 or $7, but I generally don’t like the idea of selling them for less than $8.

Currently, the best buylist price is at $7.40, but the retail price is closer to $13. The eBay average is $8, which means I would be losing money after fees. Without PucaTrade, this would just be a spec I had to sit on and hope would eventually pan out a little better, or occasionally find someone at my LGS who wanted to trade for a set. Instead, I’m shipping these out for more than 1300 points each at a slow but steady rate, storing that value for other speculation targets, cards for my collection, or eventual online Vintage.

Dealing with a card’s spread (the difference between buylist prices and retail prices) is one of the biggest obstacles to profit for a non-store-owning financier, but PucaTrade gives a new and very important out for specs that are mild successes or even failures. Previously, the choice was largely between selling at a loss or continuing to hold and hoping for further increases, but with PucaTrade allowing you to get what essentially amounts to the card’s full value in store credit, a whole new world opens up for outing these types of specs.

Know the News

Following along with PucaTrade’s blog is a great way to keep up with what updates are coming up. You also get great MTG market theory, like this gem from a recent update:

PucaTrade has taught me that Magic is fundamentally a game of excess supply. Whether you participate in a draft or buy a booster box to crack open, Magic cards enter your collection as random assortments that you may or may not want.

Part two of this article discusses PucaTrade’s approach to solving one of the service’s biggest problems: the difficulty of sending out popular cards, especially from Standard-legal sets. I won’t rehash it, but basically, they’re testing a “dibs” system this summer. It’s definitely worth a read.

By knowing that the dibs system is coming, you may decide that you are more comfortable committing some capital to Standard cards. Or maybe the fact that it may prove temporary will make you want to move into cards that not everyone will be looking to send. When I see an announcement that MTGO trading is coming up soon, that will give me a little extra time to have the points ready to get those Vintage cards I’m coveting. Paying attention can help you be ahead of the curve in many ways.

Closing Up Shop

I’m really proud of the section header above, because I’m using it both to indicate that we’re approaching the end of this article, and also to reference a frequent criticism I hear about PucaTrade. That’s efficiency right there, folks.

Invariably, any time someone writes an article about PucaTrade, someone will comment saying something like, “I would never put my cards into something like this. They could just pull the plug any day and then everyone would just lose all their points. This is obviously a scam.”

Look, I’m all about being risk-averse. And you’re right, PucaTrade could close down. But considering more than one million trades have been completed and there’s apparently more users active than ever, I don’t imagine a world where PucaTrade will close down, at least any time soon. Frankly, the service has already proven more reliable and personally valuable to me than MTGO, and now I’m on record as being willing to put in several hundred tickets towards a Vintage deck on that unreliable, bug-ridden joke of a client. If you have any kind of collection at all on Magic Online, any criticism of PucaTrade as a risky proposition is willful obfuscation of your true concerns, whatever they may be.

If you want to use all the tools in the financier’s toolkit, you’ve already taken the right step by signing up as a ProTrader here at MTGPrice. We can provide the data and the community you need to make the correct decisions in your Magic finance pursuits.

But if you haven’t signed up for PucaTrade yet, you are missing out on what is in my opinion the finest medium for exchanging Magic cards for other Magic cards that is available. That’s just my opinion, though. You should check it out for yourself to know for sure.

ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Take Advantage of Modern Masters 2015 Emotions

May 17, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 3 Comments

Emotions can frequently fog one’s judgment in MTG finance. In fact, the same is true for stock market investing. Emotions explain why stocks and Magic cards can be over-valued and under-valued in the short term.

However I am in the camp that the Invisible Hand finds the correct price…eventually. It may take months or even years – but I firmly believe that over a long enough time horizon, fundamentals outweigh emotions. The true value of a stock or a Magic card will be reflected in its price over enough time.

Take for example the recent Twitter drama I caused by pointing out the low stock of Promo Command Tower on TCG Player. At the time, there were approximately seven copies in stock across five sellers. I purchased three copies and highlighted to the community how few remained.

In rapid fashion, the remaining copies were bought out, sending this card’s market “value” much higher. Disgruntled players criticized me for pointing out this shortage of stock, wrongly accusing me of a pump and dump or at the very least, market manipulation. I tried to explain that the true value would be identified given enough time, and that any short term spike was artificial.

Well, here we are a month or two later and Judge Promo Command Towers are back down to $28, only about 15% above where I bought my copies. It took a while, but the Invisible Hand eventually did take action to regulate the market and help identify the right price.

Applying This to Modern Masters 2105

The above example to me is a classic case study showcasing how markets can overreact due to emotions. The result is a brief moment in time where market inefficiency could be exploited for profits. While I did not make such a greedy move with Command Tower (I still own the same three copies), there are other short term opportunities that are worth considering.

With Modern Masters 2015 on everybody’s mind I thought I would take a look at some reactions to being either included or excluded from the set. In certain cases, we will be able to identify emotionally driven price changes. Perhaps there will be some situations where rampant sell-off could soon generate a buy opportunity. Conversely, cards dodging reprint may have overreacted to the upside creating a chance to sell into hype.

Over-sold?

Let’s start with a couple cards that have sold off dramatically since being spoiled in MM2015. The first card that comes to my mind almost immediately is Leyline of Sanctity. The Core Set rare has dropped nearly 40% since being spoiled in the reprint set.

This reprint was a major hit to the white enchantment. But my outlook isn’t such extreme doom and gloom. The card is still a clutch sideboard player in a metagame where Burn is relevant and even dodging Thoughtseizes and Inquisition of Kozileks (two excellent pickups, by the way) is quite handy. That being said, the card went from very low supply to…marginally higher supply? Think about it: will Modern Masters 2015 have a long-term impact on the supply of this card? Could an increase in Modern interest help drive demand, supporting this card’s price in the future? It’s certainly possible. My advice: keep an eye on this one – it’s selling off now and for good reason, but activity over the last day or two may suggest there are buyers at this lower price point. Once it stabilizes, Leyline can be a solid target.

Spellskite is another such example.

Like Leyline of Sanctity, this is another highly relevant sideboard card in Modern. After peaking over $30, the card rapidly sold off and crashed down to around $15, only to recently rebound back over $18. This is another example where the market is emotionally over-reacting to news. Will Spellskite’s price continue to drop? Possibly. But much of the drop is likely already priced in at this point. I’d keep a close eye on this one as well because as long as Splinter Twin remains dominant in Modern, this will be a highly in-demand card with plenty of fundamental strength. Don’t give in to short term panic selling if you can avoid it.

At this point you may be thinking only sideboard rares are experiencing this emotional sell-off. Guess again.

The most valuable card in Modern, Tarmogoyf himself, is also selling off in light of Modern Masters 2015. While his pullback has not been as drastic, a move from $220 to $171 is nothing to sneeze at. In this case, I suspect the selling may not be over just yet. But the bottom will arrive swiftly. And when it does, it will likely last for only a brief moment. If history is any indicator, we may see Goyf’s price recover almost as quickly as it drops. Let’s zoom in on June 2013, when the first Modern Masters was released.

We can see in the chart above that Tarmogoyf peaked at $180 in 2013, only to drop down to around $110 in light of Modern Masters. Less than a month later, however, the card recovered nearly 100% of its drop. By early 2014, Goyf recovered the full price drop and started to set new all time highs.

Using this data, I suspect we haven’t hit the short-term bottom on Tarmogoyf just yet. But we need to remain extremely vigilant. A major price drop out of fearful selling could generate the best opportunity to make short-term profits. The same theory will apply to other reprinted cards like Noble Hierarch and Mox Opal. These two cards have also sold off dramatically since being spoiled in MM2015. A short-term selloff will again be a terrific time to obtain copies. We just need to be very careful with our timing – when the panic selling is over we need to be prepared to acquire quickly. The window of opportunity may be very small.

Over-bought?

It’s no secret a few obvious exclusions were made from Modern Masters 2015. Cards dodging reprint in this set are bound to move higher in price. However in some cases emotions took cards into overbought territory, meriting a short term pullback.

Inkmoth Nexus is the poster child for such overly enthusiastic buying.

The nonbasic land skyrocketed 100% after we confirmed it would not be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. I suspect this is driven highly by speculators, although it’s possible that some players held off on acquiring copies they needed in the hopes of a reprint. But you can see how the card over-shot to the high side in recent price action, and since the peak at $25 it has actually dropped 20% back down to under $20. The euphoric buying has subsided for now, but I’d watch this one closely. Another surge back to $25 is not out of the question, especially since the top buy list price hasn’t budged from $15. If we get back to $25 again I’d advocate moving extra copies to take advantage of everyone’s bullishness on the card.

Goblin Guide is another card worth a closer look after dodging reprint.

I want to highlight how much more subtle the price jump is in Goblin Guide. He went from $18ish to around $24, only to sell back down to $21. While less drastic, the trend matches that of Inkmoth Nexus. Emotionally driven buying by speculators and players who recognized cheaper copies won’t be entering the market any time soon, followed by an ensuing sell-off. If there’s another surge in the coming months, make sure you’re ready to pounce. Selling into emotional hype is the best way to maximize value from your cards when looking at a short-term time horizon.

The last example I want to cover is Serum Visions.

When news broke that the blue sorcery dodged reprint it shot up to $11.66. Euphoria was short lived however, as the card quickly pulled back to $9.45, not even $1 above its pre-hyped price. Yet again we see this same trend – overextended buying followed by an immediate pullback.

Should this price behavior happen again in the coming months, I’d be ready to cash out of excess copies. Not only does this net you higher gains, but it also ensures you dodge future reprint risk, such as an FNM Promo in the case of Serum Visions or perhaps a Battle for Zendikar appearance (Goblin Guide? Inquisition of Kozilek?).

Wrapping it Up

In the three examples I shared of cards overextending to the high side, I want to point out one important consistency. In each case, the card value jumped on emotional excitement only to pull back immediately thereafter. However in all three cases, the top dealer buy price did not drop alongside the value. They all jumped up and have so far been able to stick.

If this trend continues and buy prices remain elevated, it will provide very strong support for these cards. Therefore, before cashing out in future price jumps, I’d highly encourage you to inspect buy price trends first. It’s one thing if speculators are getting a little too enthusiastic about a card’s absence from MM2015. It’s a completely different story if dealers also join the fray. In cases where buy prices jump and remain higher, you may be best served by holding for a longer time horizon.

Either way, one must be very observant of trends over the next couple months. There will continue to be rapid price fluctuations as people overreact to market changes. Should prices seem to overextend either to the upside or downside, we need to remain vigilant and prepared to act. If a sell-off becomes overdone, the window to acquire cheaper copies may only be open for a couple weeks. In the case of rampant buying the window to capitalize is even smaller, lasting only a few days.

We’re entering a highly volatile time period in MTG finance. This isn’t the time to sit on inventory complacently. We need to be acting if we wish to maximize value from our collections, adding positions where appropriate and cashing out of others after a spike higher. Perhaps the best strategy shortly after Vegas is to move spiked cards into reprinted cards – selling high and buying low. It may be challenging to move cards that everyone is euphoric about into cards that everyone is dumping. But if you time things correctly you’ll be selling into hype and buying into fear, the perfect trading strategy if you ask me.

Lastly, if you’re truly too afraid of how low prices can go on reprinted Modern staples I urge you to at least consider moving overbought cards into more stable holdings. Cashing out of overpriced Inkmoth Nexus at a dealer, taking trade credit, and acquiring that Dual Land you’ve needed for your EDH deck could be one of the best decisions you’ll ever make. This is especially sound advice if you don’t want to actively manage your MTG portfolio throughout Modern season.

No matter what you do, keep your emotions in check. We should use historical data from the first Modern Masters to try and anticipate where prices may go from here. With a little planning, we just may add incremental value to our collections simply by timing things right. Good luck to everyone!

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

While everyone knows about Inkmoth Nexus and Serum Visions, a few cards that dodged MM2015 reprint have remained under the radar this past week. Here are some cards worth keeping an eye on and possibly acquiring before the hype train leaves the station.

While it was printed in the first Modern Masters, there’s no Rift Bolt in MM2015. The result: this $2 common is poised to rise in value as long as Burn remains relevant in Modern. Star City Games has a dozen or so copies in stock across Time Spiral and Modern Masters, but keep an eye on dealer stock going forward. We could see some gradual, more sustaining price increases this summer.
There will be no Spell Snare in MM2015. I suspect this will mean stock of this card will be dropping in the next few months. Star City Games currently has just one Dissension copy in stock at $5.59, though they have 17 MMA copies at $5.65. Picking up these – perhaps even in foil – could lead to some gradual price gains throughout 2015.
Another solid target due for gradual price increase is Hive Mind. The blue enchantment has seen only one printing, back in Magic 2010. The card is relevant in Modern, and may see some casual demand as well. SCG has 11 total copies in stock, with NM pricing at $4.89. This seems very low for a card played in Modern as a 3-of or 4-of. If Scapeshift can be a $24.15 card on SCG, I don’t see why Hive Mind couldn’t move higher from here.

ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: The Meta Report 9 – 14 May

May 17, 2015 Guo Heng Chin 2 Comments

By: Guo Heng

Welcome back to another instalment of The Meta Report, where we track the evolution of the metagame week-by-week and its financial implications. This week we would only be taking a look at the Magic Online metagame as we’ve already had a look at last week’s sole paper event, Grand Prix Paris in the previous instalment of The Meta Report.

Without further ado, here’s the table for the most popular decks on Magic Online daily events over the past week.

The Magic Online Metagame for 9 May to 14 May

Deck	Total
Abzan Aggro	38
Mono Red	38
Esper Dragons	34
GW Collected Company Megamorph	27
Abzan Control	24
Mardu Dragons	23
Atarka Red	20
Abzan Megamorph	13
Jeskai Tokens	12
GR Dragons	8
GR Devotion	8
GW Devotion	7
UW Heroic	6
Ojutai Bant Megamorph	5
Temur Superfriends	5
Abzan Reanimator	4
Jeskai Aggro	4
Grixis Dragons	3
Mono Green Collected Company	3
UB Control	3
UW Control	3
Abzan Rally	2
GB Megamorph	2
Mardu Midrange	2
Mardu Aggro	2
BR Dragons	2
GW Megamorph	2
Temur Midrange	2
Sidisi Whip	2
4 Color Collected Company	2
RW Heroic	2
Mono Black Aggro	2
Abzan Warrior w/ Collected Company	1
Sultai Rally with Purphoros	1
Jund Dragons	1
4 Color Dragons	1
Mono Green Aggro	1
GR Aggro	1
BR Aggro	1
Jeskai Tokens w/ Monastery Mentor	1
UR Control	1
GB Sacrifice	1
Temur Aggro	1
Jund Midrange	1
Jund Whip	1
UG Collected Company	1
Bant Heroic	1
RG Bees	1
Caleb 4 Color Good Stuff	1
BW Warriors	0

The top dogs remained mostly unchanged from last week’s meta, with Abzan Aggro, Mono Red and Esper Dragons retaining their spot as the three most popular decks. However, this week saw Green White Collected Company Megamorph (a rather inelegant name for the Green White Aggro deck which utilizes the megamorph synergy in Den Protector and Deathmist Raptor and runs four copies of Collected Company) and Mardu Dragons gaining traction. As last week’s article pointed out, Mardu Dragons was well-positioned in the metagame and it is no surprise to see the deck nabbing a larger portion of the metagame last week. Mardu Dragon’s rise could also be attributed to it being one of the few tier one decks that is cheaper than the rest: you do not need Dragonlord Ojutai or Deathmist Raptor – two of the most expensive Dragons of Tarkir cards online (and on paper too) for Mardu Dragons.

Unfortunately the rise of Mardu Dragons has little financial implications as the components of the deck are either cheap or stagnating in price. Soulfire Grand Master experienced a slight bump over the last couple of days but her buylist price remained the same, pushing her spread to 56%. Nothing to see there.

On the other hand, Collected Company is solidifying its presence in Modern. The ongoing Magic Online Championships featured a Modern portion and Collected Company was the only Dragons card to make a splash in the 16-player Modern metagame. Twelve copies of Collected Company were found in three decks comprising of two archetypes:

Jasper De Jong Melira Not So Super Friends

Olle Rade's Elf Company — Olle Rade’s Elf Company

My call on Collected Company is still a sell call. I expect its price to remain at its current price of $9.65 or slightly dip in the face of Dragons of Tarkir redemptions hitting the market in a few days. Even if you decide to hold it, I don’t think you would stand to lose much if its price does not grow. I suspect Collected Company would retain a price of $8 – $10 for the next few months, especially with the swap to Modern PPTQs in June.

An old mythic that is seeing a bit of a resurgence in the metagame is Perilous Vault. The online meta last week saw Esper Dragons adopting a few copies of Perilous Vault to combat the persistent Deathmist Raptor and Den Protector synergy. With just a few months left in the meta, I am not expecting Perilous Vault to spike again, but it may be worth holding on to your copies to see if its adoption translates into paper, which could bump its price up by a few bucks as it is a core set mythic.

The Rise of Sarkhan?

Temur Ramp surfaced a couple of weeks when Andrew Cuneo brought the list to the Standard Super League. The deck appeared once or twice in the daily events in the two weeks following it. However, last week saw five copies of Temur Superfriends finish in the money in the daily events. Below is a list from Magic Online streamer Bahra.

Temur Ramp features a suite of nine Planeswalkers including a playset of Sarkhan Unbroken. Living up to his name, the new iteration of Sarkhan has yet to be broken. While Sarkhan Unbroken’s abilities will always be a two-for-one, his tricolor casting cost significantly restricted the type of decks that could run him. Temur Ramp, a midrangey Superfriends deck with ramp capabilities, seems to be the shell that fits Sarkhan Unbroken best in the current Standard metagame. The only qualms I have with the deck is its flavor fail: Ugin would kill Sarkhan with his -X ability.

On a downward trajectory since the release of Dragons, Sarkhan Unbroken dipped below $10 briefly and is starting to climb although his buylist remained the same (spread of 38%). However, at $12.76, Sarkhan Unbroken looks to be a superb buy right now. Dragons of Tarkir drafts are going to be drastically reduced in a few weeks’ time and if Temur Ramp ramps up to tier one, Sarkhan could easily be a $20 card. I am putting a strong buy call on Sarkhan Unbroken.

The Last of the Dragonlords (To See Play)

While the most popular decks in the Magic Online metagame remained roughly the same as the previous week, a couple of decks featured a spicy new addition.

Dragonlord Dromoka in Abzan Megamorph — Vitorlima’s Abzan Megamorph

Dragonlord Dromoka in GW Devotion — Manwithplane251’s Green-White Devotion

Can you spot the new tech in those decks? Here’s one more list:

Dragonlord Dromoka in GW Devotion 2 — Pokerswizard’s Green-White Devotion

Can you see it yet? I guess the picture gave it away. Dragonlord Dromoka is finally seeing some mainboard action. Up till last week, the only time she saw action was as a singleton in a sideboard of Robert Vaughn’s Abzan Megamorph deck which went 9-0 at Grand Prix Toronto.

Dragonlord Dromoka’s price has been on the uptick for a couple of weeks. If Dragonlord Dromoka’s promotion from a sideboard singleton to two-to-three copies in the mainboard of Abzan Megamorph and Green-White Devotion translates into paper, she could very well demand a price tag of $15. While I am confident about Dromoka hitting $15 if the tech above does well on paper this weekend, I am not sure if she could hit $20, with the other Dragonlords, Deathmist Raptor, Collected Company and Narset Transcendent (whose price is also experiencing an uptick) soaking up the bulk of Dragons of Tarkir‘s set value.

Grand Prix Shanghai is going on as of writing and Japanese brewmaster, Makahito Mihara brought a sweet Dragon Megamorph brew that featured the megamorph synergy and a host of Dragonlords including two Dragonlord Dromoka in the mainboard. Mihara piloted that deck to 9-0 on day one but unfortunately, he fell short of top 8 by one or two wins (annoyingly while the top 8 has been announced, the results page has yet to show round 15).

I have been bullish on Dragonlord Dromoka’s ability to make her mark in Standard, and I remain so. She has a throng of useful abilities for just six mana. She is a card you would want to see in your hand against every single deck in the current metagame. Her lifelink and seven toughness makes her exceptional against the aggro decks, and makes her exceptionally difficult for decks without access to Valorous Stance, Abzan Charm or Hero’s Downfall to handle without losing card advantage. Her uncounterable clause and Grand Abolisher clause are useful against Esper Dragons, plus she blocks Dragonlord Ojutai favorably.

I am putting a trade for call for Dragonlord Dromoka. I tend to err on the conservative side in making calls in this column. While I am tempted to put a buy call on her due to her highly favorable position in the metagame right now (and a good chance of exploding into the metagame), $10 is a steep buy-in for a card whose most probably short-term ceiling is $15. Then again, there is a real possibility for Dromoka to hit $20 if she becomes prevalent in the metagame after the supply of Dragons dries up to a trickle in a few weeks’ time. She has a high spread of 50% at the moment, there is time to secure your spec copies in trade.

Oh and secure your own playset now if you plan on playing with Dragonlord Dromoka. Gone are her time below $10.

That is all for this week. Join me again next weekend for another instalment of The Meta Report. Do share your thoughts and questions in the comments section below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.

Danny Brown, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Decision-Making Strategies for When You Know Reprints Are Coming

May 16, 2015 Danny Brown

After Birthing Pod was banned, I sold most of my Modern collection. I wasn’t even a Pod player, but I lost a lot of confidence in putting resources into the format, especially since I don’t play a lot of paper Magic these days, meaning my cards weren’t even being used.

It wasn’t just the banning, though. By that time, Modern Masters 2015 had been announced, and it was clear to me that if I wasn’t using these cards and they were likely to be reprinted soon, I should probably get what I could for them while I could.

I didn’t sell everything, though, and I’d like to go over my thought process with some examples of cards that fit four different categories:

1. Did get reprinted, but I didn’t sell.

2. Did not get reprinted, and I didn’t sell.

3. Did get reprinted, and I did sell.

4. Did not get reprinted, but I did sell.

As I often do, I’m drawing some examples from personal experience, but am also looking for overarching themes and lessons we can all learn from moving forward.

1. Did Get Reprinted, but I Didn’t Sell

There are a few cards in this category, but the two I want to talk about are these:

The main reason I didn’t sell these cards is because I got in cheap, but there are other factors, too.

When Karn rotated from Standard, I traded for three copies at $15 each (how I wish I could say it was 30 copies…). One of those has since been traded out, but the other two reside in my cube and my Maelstrom Wanderer Commander deck.

When considering whether to sell these Karns, I considered it like this:

Is the retail price of Karn likely to drop below the $15 point where I previously acquired these?
If I buylist these out for $35 right now, that represents $20 profit. Am I likely to be able to purchase reprinted Karns for $20 or less?
Do I want to go through the effort of trading these away and then trading back for them after a reprint?
Do I want to play with a cube or a Maelstrom Wanderer deck that lacks Karn?

The answer to each of these questions is a solid no in my mind, so I kept my Karns.

I employed the same logic to my playset of Cryptic Command, which I acquired (shortly after Modern Masters was released) in slightly played condition for $70 and a Deathrite Shaman. In Cryptic’s case, I was not as sure that it would see another reprint, but I figured that even if it did, I probably would not be able to beat that deal (they are Lorwyn version, too). Since I’m not currently using the full playset, though, I mitigated my risk by trading out one copy at its peak. As of now, I don’t really have any regrets about trading that one or not trading the others. We’ll see if some other factor changes that.

Overarching Strategy: Consider the price you got in at, the profit you could make, what you expect the post-reprint price to be, how much you risk you’re willing to take, how much use the cards are currently getting, and any other relevant factors to determine if you should sell a card you anticipate is getting a reprint soon.

2. Did Not Get Reprinted, and I Didn’t Sell

I admit, I was skeptical of everybody immediately assuming that Innistrad was not included in Modern Masters 2015. The text in the original announcement was vague, stating, “Modern Masters 2015 Edition takes players back to some of the most remarkable planes from recent history, including Zendikar, Mirrodin, Ravnica, Lorwyn, Kamigawa, and Alara.” By contrast, the first Modern Masters announcement set a very specific range: “Cards are reprints from Eighth Edition through Alara Reborn.” I don’t think I was wrong to think Innistrad cards might be included, but luckily for me, I eventually got on board with what the community at large.

As a result, I didn’t sell my Snapcaster Mages (thank heaven, it’s nearly doubled in the last six months) or Geists of Saint Traft (I don’t own Lilianas). But Innistrad cards were easy.

Other than Innistrad cards, the main category of cards I held onto were lands. The first Modern Masters didn’t have a cycle of rare duals, and while it was certainly possible for Modern Masters 2015, seeing fetches in Khans made me feel basically safe holding everything I owned. So I did, and none of it got reprinted. Phew.

Overarching Strategy: Consider the information that is official, compare it to past situations that are similar, listen to trusted community members, and draw your conclusions.

Just like you shouldn’t marry the first pick of your draft, though, you shouldn’t cling to your early conclusions just because. If I had stuck with my immediate thoughts regarding Innistrad‘s inclusion, I would have sold off my Snapcasters and Geists for a (relative) pittance and would now be looking at sharply increased prices should I be wanting to reacquire.

3. Did Get Reprinted, and I Did Sell

This is, of course, where I was hoping to be most successful, and I did okay.

I sold my Emrakul, I believe before it was officially spoiled, but not because I necessarily thought its price would crash—more just because I wasn’t using it. There are three big cards that I sold or traded specifically because I wanted to avoid a big crash:

Each of these cards was pretty obviously going to be targeted for reprint, and although I could see a world where Wizards would print these at mythic, their earlier rare printings suggested otherwise.

The nice thing is that I got great deals on each of these cards, too: each was acquired at 10 to 25 percent of its current retail price. However, Cryptic Command aside, a reprint at rare does a lot more to crash a card’s value than a reprint at mythic, and I wanted to make sure I locked in profit on these while I could. I did keep a single Splinter Twin and a single Spellskite for my cube, but Noble Hierarch got proxied—I’m not playing a $70 mana elf in a casual format when I could triple up instead. Good thing, too, because it’s already down to $50. Expect it to drop more.

Then we have commons, uncommons, and casual rares, which I anticipated would just get wrecked, even compared to the above three cards. In this case, I sold off my Smash to Smithereens (reprinted at common and has already dipped from $5 below $3), Remands (keeping a couple for Cube and Tiny Leaders, because this is honestly one of my favorite cards), and Mirran Crusaders (which I still had around from Standard rotation and clearly weren’t going anywhere). I feel quite good about selling these. Remember what happened to Spell Snare after the first Modern Masters?

Overarching Strategy: Of the cards you most expect to get reprinted, consider which ones are most likely to get hit hardest. Those are the ones you should most prioritize trading or selling, as you want to lock in any profits (or minimize any losses) as soon as possible.

It’s important to note that if I had been actively playing Splinter Twin in Modern tournaments, I would have eaten the anticipated loss and kept them. It really all comes down to how much use the cards are seeing versus how much money you expect to lose based on the reprint.

4. Cards I Did Sell, but Didn’t Get Reprinted

I always knew this would be the most painful category, once I could identify the cards that were in it. I traded out my last set of Serum Visions, and I’m still having a hard time believing it’s not in the set. Again, though, I’m not playing Modern right now, and Visions is only good in that format, so I’m not feeling too much regret. The best part? I pulled three or four sets out of five-cent bulk bins back in the Avacyn Restored days, so I made plenty of profit off of this card. I can always rebuy for the stupid $10 price if I feel the need.

Inkmoth Nexus is where most of my regret lies. I got in on about 10 or 15 copies of this at $5 or $6 each a while back, and had been anxiously watching for it to go up ever since. This seemed like a likely include for this set, given Infect’s perpetual-if-not-dominating presence in the Modern metagame, but a reprint was not to be. Now Inkmoth is sitting at a retail price of $20, while I’ve sent all my copies out on PucaTrade for 1000 to 1200 points. If Infect wins an event or two in the next year, I expect it to go up even more.

Overarching Strategy: Considering this is the “screw-up” category, maybe it’s not wise to recommend anything here? Then again, it’s not like I lost money on my Inkmoths or Visions. I don’t mind a cautious approach, and I don’t think you should, either.

Too Few To Mention

You know what? I feel like I made a lot of good calls in anticipation of Modern Masters 2015, and even if my decisions regarding Serum Visions and Inkmoth Nexus were ultimately incorrect (and disappointing in hindsight), I don’t think my thought processes were wrong, nor do I regret taking a cautious approach.

I locked in value on all kinds of cards that got reprinted, successfully managed to not fire-sell cards that I want to own and don’t believe will lose anything on, and correctly identified cards that were not at all likely to be reprinted. There are too many variables to say how much money I “made” or “saved,” but I know that it’s more than what I “lost” by selling my Inkmoths and Visions for a smaller profit than I might have otherwise gotten.

So what are the big lessons here?

1. Think things through critically.

2. Have a reason for each of your decisions.

3. Don’t second-guess incorrect decisions that were made for the right reasons.

4. Don’t dwell on decisions that didn’t work out, especially if you made a bunch of decisions that did!

5. I made a lot of presumptions in making these decisions, and you know what happens when you presume, right? It makes a pres(ident) out of (yo)u and me! Yep, I’m pretty sure how that’s how the saying goes. Presume away, folks.

That’s it for this week. Have questions or comments? You know what to do.

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