Editor’s Note: Relevant financial details in blue, folks.

Wow, what a Top 8 to top off the season with. Two Hall of Fame members and a few likely future inductees make for a bracket where anything can happen as a diverse set of new decks make waves and vie for the first place trophy in Australia.

Heading into this Pro Tour many observers seemed convinced that the metagame was likely to revolve around Bant Company. Indeed this is what happened, but not in the way folks expected. With everyone gunning for the same deck, the consensus that coalesced across multiple new decks was to go big or go home.As a result we got an incredibly diverse field and a Top 8 full to the brim with eight distinct decks and a plethora of innovative brewing technology. The Top 8 competition may be the best of all time, with three Hall of Fame members, a former Player of the Year, and the current World Champion.

Our quarter-final match ladder starts as follows this evening:

• Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge) vs. Yuta Takahashi (Bant Company)
• LSV (Bant Company) vs. Reid Duke (GR Ramp)
• Sam Pardee (BG Delirium) vs. Andrew Brown (Temur Emerge)
• Ken Yukihiro (GR Ramp) vs. Lukas Blohon (BW Control)

To recap, here are our Top 8 deck types with their their notable main deck cards:

1. Sam Pardee (BG Delirium): 4x Grim Flayer, 2x Ishkanah, Grafwidow, 3x Tireless Tracker, 4x Traverse the Ulvenwald, 4x Liliana, the Last Hope, 4x Hissing Quagmire
2. LSV (Bant Company): 4x Collected Company, 4x Sylvan Advocate, 4x Reflector Mage, 4x Spell Queller, 2x Archangel Avacyn, 3x Tireless Tracker, 4x Selfless Spirit, 4x Dromoka’s Command, 1x Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
3. Yuta Takahashi (Bant Company): 4x Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, 4x Collected Company, 4x Sylvan Advocate, 4x Reflector Mage, 4x Spell Queller, 2x Archangel Avacyn, 4x Tireless Tracker, 4x Dromoka’s Command
4. Lukas Blohon (BW Control): 3x Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet, 3x Archangel Avacyn, 3x Liliana, the Last Hope, 2x Ob Nixilis, 1x Sorin Grim Nemesis
5. Ken Yukihiro (GR Ramp): 4x Hangarback Walker, 3x Ishkanah, Grafwidow, 3x Emrakul, the Promised End, 4x Traverse the Ulvenwald, 2x Chandra, Flamecaller, 3x Kozilek’s Return
6. Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge): 3x Emrakul, the Promised End, 3x Elder Deep-Fiend, 4x Kozilek’s Return, 1x Chandra, Flamecaller, 2x Ishkanah, Grafwidow
7. Reid Duke (GR Delirium Ramp): 2x World Breaker, 2x Dragonlord Atarka, 2x Ishkanah, Grafwidow, 2x Emrakul, the Promised End, 4x Traverse the Ulvenwald, 3x Kozilek’s Return
8. Andrew Brown (Temur Emerge): 4x Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, 4x Matter Reshaper, 3x Elder Deep-Fiend, 4x Kozilek’s Return, 3x Shaman of the Forgotten Ways

The main deck appearance count on the hottest cards of the weekend ends up looking like this:

• 12x Traverse the Ulvenwald
• 11x Kozilek’s Return
• 9x Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
• 9x Ishkanah, Grafwidow
• 8x Emrakul, the Promised End
• 8x Collected Company
• 8x Spell Queller
• 7x Archangel Avacyn
• 7x Liliana, the Last Hope
•  6x Elder Deep Fiend

Based on this, it’s worth taking a look at Kozilek’s Return near $10, and Liliana looks like a solid sell at current prices. 

Quarterfinals:  Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge) vs. Yuta Takahashi (Bant Company)

Owen and Yuta trade blows, earning a game each, before Owen takes an epic game three after casting Emrakul, the Promised End four times in the same game, and top decks a crucial Elder Deep-Fiend to dodge yet another bullet this weekend. In the final game some familiar back and forth ends in sadness for Takahashi as Emrakul ends up finishing yet another critical game this weekend.

Quarterfinals:  LSV (Bant Company) vs. Reid Duke (GR Ramp) 

LSV is up two games off camera, and seems likely to dash Reid’s hope of a Pro Tour win. Reid rallies in the third game and puts LSV on the ropes with an Emrakul, but LSV manages to beat the biggest threat of the weekend yet again to move ahead into the semi-finals and a chance at a big addition to his resume.

Quarterfinals: Sam Pardee (BG Delirium) vs. Andrew Brown (Temur Emerge)

Sam Pardee took this match while I was at dinner…sorry about that 😉

Quarterfinals: Ken Yukihiro (GR Ramp) vs. Lukas Blohon (BW Control)

The players trade two games a piece, and the players move to a deciding game. Great to see Hangarback Walker making a late mark on the format to punctuate the dominance the card held last fall. After a grindy Game 5, Blohon cleans up the board after some timely discard spells, and is able to drive home the necessary damage to take the match.

Semi-Finals Matches:

LSV (Bant Company) vs. Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge)

LSV is in fine form this evening, and takes Game 1 after a sick Avacyn flip to clear Owen’s board and set up an alpha strike. In Game 2, LSV presents significant early pressure without the help of Collected Company, but Owen is able to go from Elder Deep-Fiend to stabilize on into Emrakul to wreck Luis’ board and take the game. Game 3 is our first sideboarded game and LSV again presents early pressure and has the Dromoka’s Command needed to drive it home to take a 2-1 lead. In Game 4 a timely back to back casting of Kozilek’s Return via Emrakul coming into play, absolutely wrecks LSV’s attack force, and Owen is able to fade a couple of draws from his opponent to force Game 5.

In the final game, LSV stumbles on land for a turn too long, allowing Owen to dictate the tempo of the early game and drop him to just one life in short order. Luis managed to stabilize and started looking for a window to cast Subjugator Angel, tap Owen’s team and swing for a win. Instead Owen is able to force blocks with Ishkanah and the threat of Kozilek’s Return and a timely Elder Deep-Fiend puts Owen into the finals. Hats off to LSV for making his third Pro Tour Top 8 in a row, an accomplishment only matched once in Magic history.

Lukas Blohon (BW Control) vs. Sam Pardee (GB Delirium)

LSV in the booth as we watch the Liliana, the Last Hope show, with a total of seven copies between these two decks. Luis notes that he had to face Emrakul in nine of ten rounds of Standard play. Card is everywhere. In Game 1, Lukas is able to get to the Liliana zombie ultimate first, and a few turns later he claims first blood.

In Game 2, Blohon ends up with three powerful planeswalkers in play and drives home Avacyn to go up two games.

In Game 3, Lukas easily handles the early threat from Pardee, and then gets Kalitas, some zombie minions and an Avacyn onto an empty board to easily dispatch his opponent and move to a final against Owen Turtenwald.

Pro Tour Eldritch Moon Finals: Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge) vs. Lukas Blohon (WB Control)

Owen Turtenwald comes into this finals match an absolute juggernaut, having won Player of the Year, US National Champion and joining the Hall of Fame all in the same weekend. Now he has the chance to be the first ever Hall of Famer to win the Pro Tour where they joined the Hall. Lukas however, has been playing very tightly all weekend and seems reasonably well positioned here if he can get rid of Emrakul and his Eldrazi brethren with early discard spells or timely kill spells. Owen has won many games on the back of Kozilek’s Return flashing back from Elder Deep-Fiend or Emrakul, the Promised Hope, a game plan I’m sure he’ll be looking to lock in for the win.

Financially, we’ve seen movement on Kozilek’s Return over the last few hours up to $13 (from spring lows around $5), and Liliana and Emrakul are both holding solid price points from earlier spikes.

Game 1 sees Lukas get down an early Liliana that ticks up to her emblem unchecked as Owen gets stuck holding a grip of lands and only enough threats to swallow a few kill spells from Lukas. With Avacyn and Linvala also in play from Blohon, Owen goes down without getting a chance to engage in Eldrazi emerge shenanigans.

Game 2 sees the scene set in similar fashion with early plays from Owen, including an Emrakul, being handled efficiently by kill spells and sweepers, only to have Liliana enter play and march up toward the inevitable zombie army. Backing Liliana are once again Avacyn and Kalitas, and once the emblem kicks in, things spiral toward a 2-0 lead for Lukas, with Lukas at thirty-six life. An Emrakul almost gets Owen back in the game, but he ends up needing two strong draw steps in a row to stave off defeat and doesn’t find what he needs.

So far the dark walker looks set to hold her price for the time being, though the BW archetype didn’t do particularly well across the full tournament record.

Game 3 starts no better for Owen, as he misses his third land drop, and Infinite Obliteration hits not one, but two copies of Emrakul in Owen’s hand, along with the third one in the deck. Owen misses the land once again, and Gideon arrives to apply Pro Tour winning pressure.

Lukas Blohon takes down Pro Tour Eldritch Moon and justifies the Liliana, the Last Hope hype, and brings the set narrative to life in fantastic fashion. Emrakul, despite finishing 2nd, has posted up at the $30 plateau, providing a solid shot at $10/copy in gains after fees for those that got in closer to $12.

See you guys next time in Kaladesh!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Down in the golden city of Sydney, Australia the world’s best Magic: The Gathering players are coming together once more to polish off the 2015-2016 Pro Tour season.   Now, after weeks of secretive testing, the top pro teams from around the world have gathered for another epic quest to take home the trophy. With over $250,000 USD on the line, and the winner taking home a hefty $40,000, players will be hard pressed to overcome the deep pool of talent. Coming out of the first couple of weeks on the SCG circuit, the pros are forced to either run Bant Company or find the solution that can beat it consistently enough to Top 8.  Other contenders include the consistently great G/W Tokens, B/W Angel Control and even the surprising G/U Crush of Tentacles deck from last week.

The Pro Tour, of course, requires players to succeed in a mixed schedule of booster draft (EMN – EMN – SOI) and constructed play (Standard in this case) with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning Australia time, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 1am EST, Friday.

For the MTG Finance community, the question of the day is which decks will rise to dominance today in a field that has been largely oriented around Collected Company and the tempo/value combo of Spell Queller and Reflector Mage. Of note, given the unique time zone of this tournament, overnight speculation has the potential to be much more successful than usual.

Will any of the pros find a way to unlock a new archetype with game against the known field? Will an underplayed deck from the previous weeks results suddenly end up perfectly positioned after adding a few new pieces of tech? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

Cards to Watch

With many SOI/EMN cards already commanding high price tags, most of the speculation potential lies this weekend should reside in cards that have yet to make an impact.

Here are a few of the interesting cards on our radar this weekend:

Lilianna, the Last Hope: Ready to Win?

So far several of the Eldritch Moon cards are expensive if they can’t continue to make top tables.  Liliana, the Last Hope is currently priced for success at around $40. Mostly showing up in BW Angel, BG Delerium or BGW control decks Liliana proves yet again that planeswalkers at 3cc are not to be underestimated. Often played as a 4-of, she needs to do well to hold her premium price. If several decks in the Top 8 make prominent use of this powerful lady, the potential for a short term spike over $50 could trigger a good chance to sell. If she fails to make an impact, her price could plummet back toward $25-30 in a hurry.

Current Price: $40
Predicted Price Monday: $50+
Odds to Top 8: 2 to 1

Spell Queller: Too Pricey For A Rare?

There is no doubt at all that Spell Queller is kicking serious ass in Bant Company decks alongside fellow value creatures Reflector Mage and Duskwatch Recruiter. This is however a recently printed rare and holding a price over $10 is a rare event indeed for such a card. The fact that Spell Queller may have a future in Modern certainly helps the prospects, but only the ubiquitous Collected Company has managed to hold a $15 price tag at rare for long as of late. With CoCo due to rotate in October, we are likely to face a major change up in Standard deck types, and who knows if W/U will be good at that point in the season. If you’re holding this card, hope it does very well this weekend and look to get out at the high point closer to $20 because like Hangarback Walker before it, this could easily be a powerhouse that ends up on the sidelines after rotation.

Current Price: $15
Predicted Price Monday: $20
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 2

Gisela, the Broken Blade: Catch a falling star?

B/W Angel control decks look viable, but nowhere dominant coming out of the first few weeks of Standard tournaments including Eldritch Moon. Gisela is often just a 2-of in these decks and the case for needing four copies in a consistently performing deck has yet to develop. In fact, I am hoping that the card is largely absent this weekend, so that we get a chance to get in under $10. In such a scenario, I would be looking to unload in the short to mid term before she rotates out of Standard on the premise that she eventually makes a relevant Top 8 as a 4-of. If that never develops her status as a powerful angel and the small-set, mythic half of an important collectible in the Magic community should make her an easy $20 card a couple of years down the road.

Current Price: $14
Predicted Price Monday: $14
Odds to Top 8: 2 to 3

Ishkanah, Grafwidow: Weaving a Larger Web?

So far, no one seems certain how many copies of this surprisingly powerful mythic rare they should be running. To jump from $7 to say $15, we likely need to see a build that truly optimizes her ability stabalize a board, blunt flying aggression and set up recursive graveyard shenanigans. There may also be long term EDH demand for this eight-legged queen of the webs, but I need to see strong Standard demand to get in on the action.

Current Price: $7
Predicted Price Monday: $10+
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 1

Eldritch Evolution: Did someone find a home?

Despite being one of the most hyped Eldritch Moon cards early on, Eldritch Evolution has largely failed to show up at the top tables in Standard thus far. Oddly enough, Jeff Hoogland had little trouble justifying a full four copies of the card in his 3rd place Modern deck at the SCG Classic in Baltimore last weekend, so the potential for great things is certainly there. If the card shows up in some hot new deck this weekend, a spike over $10 could follow. If it doesn’t make the top tables however, it could easily fall toward $3-4 at which point I’ll start picking these up.

Current Price: $5
Predicted Price Monday: $5

Emrakul, the Promised End: Enough Demand to Pop?

Coming into the Pro Tour Emrakul has already made some waves as a top end finisher in a few different decks, but look out this weekend to see if it can become a ubiquitous finisher in high enough demand to move the price needle. The art is awesome, and the card is powerful, so the long term prospects are good and I’m going to pick a couple of sets up to try and work both the short and long term angles here.

Current Price: $13
Monday Price: $20+

Do you have an outsider pick? Share it in the comments!

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour: Shadows Over Innistrad all weekend!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

The action on the floor at GP Toronto this morning is relatively mellow compared to the frenzy at some events further south. Basically none of the big names from American GPs seem to have made the trip, so the ten or so vendor booths are largely occupied by smaller stores from British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. Dealers on the floor so far include FacetoFace Games, Magic Stronghold, MTG Deals, Mana Toxik, Fusion Gaming, P Market Games, Tome 2, Wizard Tower. Game Keeper Onlineand MTG First.

A quick survey of the vendors on site, confirmed that many of the expected trends for the weekend are in play, with many of the Standard staples from the Pro Tour Top 8 selling briskly.

At MTGFirst, Jason reported that Hissing Quagmire, Declaration in Stone, Archangel Avacyn and Languish were all moving well.

At Fusion Games, word was that Sylvan Advocate and Declaration in Stone were the hottest selling cards of the morning.

MTGDeals called out Duskwatch Recruiter selling briskly at $3 CDN ($2.50 USD) and Tome 2 was sold out of Dark Petition at $12.

At GP Organizer FacetoFace Games Booth, Kalitas was nearly sold out at $35 ($28 USD). The current FacetoFace buylist can be found over here.  (Editor’s Note: We’ll also be adding F2F to our Vendor sell price lists on this site next week.)

F2F was also offering some pretty sweet specials alongside their case of altered and rare cards. Here’s a taste of what was on offer, tax included and in CDN dollars (subtract 25% for USD). I picked up ten copies of Ulamog at $11 USD, confident that the card will top $20 down the road. Abbot is similarly tempting at close to $3 USD.

 

Here are the buy lists that were in play on the floor this morning. Keep in mind that vendor buy prices get significantly worse as the weekend progresses, so hitting up the vendors today is your best bet if you’re looking to go liquid on Standard and Modern staples or get top dollar on a big ticket item.

Here’s a few of the better deals I snapped up on the floor, all in CDN dollars, so discount by 25% for USD. I’ve been moving in aggressively on some of the Eldrazi I expect to regain staple status in Modern, including Reality Smasher, World Breaker and Though-Knot Seer.

Despite their recent spike over $40, I continue to find small pockets of the promo Birds of Paradise for under $20 USD. Might be wise to poke around your local stores for those.

 

Anafenza, the Foremost foils in desireable languages are on my acquisitions target list as part of a powerful Modern combo likely to be part of Tier 1 decks for years. I also picked up some Ancient Stirrings at .75/per, which seemed criminal and snagged 10 copies of Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger at $11 USD targeting a $20+ exit in a few years. Buy-a-box promo copies of Goblin Dark Dwellers were widely available around $3 USD, and I continue to run deeper on that card with expectations of a $10+ exit down the road. Russian copies of Westvale Abbey and Archangel Avacyn found below the average floor prices for English copies, rounded out my first round of purchases.

The prize wall for GP Toronto was looking relatively solid, and included plenty of goodies, including a sealed box of Revised and a ton of juicy foils.

Stay tuned for a mini-update Saturday evening once I get back from my afternoon play sessions.