By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

5 Winners of the Week

Dragons of Tarkir continues to shake up standard, but the hype is real for Modern Masters 2015 and the upcoming release is moving prices as well. Let’s have a look at what’s up with the Magic cards that are moving and shaking this week:

1. Collected Company Foil (DTK, Rare): $10.00 to $30.00 (+200%)

Collected Company has been getting a lot of press and a reasonable number of results in Standard, and things are also starting to heat up for the card in Modern. Speculation on the Modern hype tripled the cards price in the last ten days or so. I’ll be outing a few copies to cover my costs around $10/copy and then holding the rest for several months to see how things develop in modern. An important win at the top tables could put this card up above $50, especially if it proves to be viable outside of a single deck.

Verdict: Trade/Buy

Format(s): Modern/Standard

2. Heritage Druid (Morningtide, Uncommon): $7.25 to $11.00 (+51%)

This bad boy uncommon has long been a big contributor to the success of Elves comboing off in Legacy, but as of late some Modern success with the deck has thrust up demand for this single printing money maker. The Elves deck is unlikely to take over the format as numerous answers (such as Anger of the Gods) exist to control it, but kudos to anyone who happened to be sitting on a pile of these when the spike hit this week. There might be a few more dollars left in this but it’s time to ship.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Sell

3. Dack Fayden (CSP, Mythic): $25.00 to $35.00  (+40%)

The recent spikes on Dack are more speculative/opportunistic than play driven given that Dack is really only played sparsely in Vintage and Casual formats. As a mythic from a low volume set that didn’t sell well, this could easily top $50 a bit down the road, but there’s always a slight chance of a reprint or a replacement, so I’m going to hedge my bets and sell a few now, and a few more later. I was getting in on these around $17-20 near Xmas 2014, so locking in $50/profit per set seems like a solid move now.

Format(s): Vintage/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Hold/Sell

4. Blood Moon (9th Edition, Rare): $20.99 to $26.79 (+28%)

No reprint in MM2015 has all copies of this card on the rise, and even the white bordered versions are on the spike.  This will likely see another reprint at some point, as it’s handy to have something on deck to keep fancy lands in check in Modern and Legacy, but for now it seems safe for a year or more. I’ve got some Dark NM copies I’ll be ready to move at anything over $40 since they were picked up under $20 last year. If you have extras sitting around, cashing out and pushing into a new spec is a solid plan.

Format(s): Standard/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5. Chord of Calling (M15, Rare): $3.95 to $4.73 (+20%)

The recent Modern Elves and Collected Company decks are driving this card higher. It’s been on my list of “undervalued vs. potential” cards all year, as supported by my 60+ copies. Assuming it finds a permanent home in a consistently performing Modern Deck within the year, this is a future $10+ card, which is still a ways off it’s previous high, but a solid double up for those of us who got in under $4.

Format(s): Modern

Verdict: Buy

3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Daybreak Coronet (Future Sight, Rare): $35.59 to $18.99 (-47%)

Daybreak Coronet is the perfect example of a card whose price was propped up by little more than rarity relative to the current player pool. As a card that is basically only played in the Modern Boggles deck, Daybreak was part of the Future Sight value posse, but is dropping like a stone heading into the triple GP weekend for MM2015. I’d steer clear, but look to pick up a few copies around $10-12 if they show up during desperation sales as folks start to try and recoup travel expenses after Vegas via Ebay and TCGPlayer dumps. I got rid of my copies last November as part of my Black Lotus deal, so I’m out of play on this one.

Format(s): Modern/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Buy (below $15, but there are better targets)

2. Sidisi, Undead Vizier (DTK, Rare): $5.11 to $2.92 (-43%)

This is a great card, with a powerful effect and a strong future in EDH and casual circles, but with all of the high value cards that have emerged for Standard in Dragons of Tarkir, it was inevitable that anything like this that isn’t seeing heavy play was going to drop, especially given the purchasing power being directed towards MM2015 right now. I love this card as a speculative target heading into fall, and a long term middling casual hold, especially if it gets down toward $2. Someday you’ll buylist this around $5 and thank me if you get on the train during summer lows.

Verdict: Buy (Under $3)

3. Narset Transcedant: $29.52 to $18.63 (-37%)

Some day our kung-fu planeswalker will get broken but in the face of limited Standard play, she has rightfully swapped values with Dragonlord Ojutai, and may hit as low as $10-12 heading into summer lows. I’m a buyer at the bottom end of that range, but I’m not in a hurry to pick her up. If foils get equally juicy, I’ll be more motivated on those, since casual and EDH play may help float a potential lack of demand from Eternal formats.  You should have sold your copies when you cracked your box last month, but it’s not too late vs. eventual lows to trade her out for something better.

Verdict: Sell

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:

Buying Period: May 10th – May 23rd, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

• 2x Modern Masters 2015 Booster Box (Japanese): $360 per
• 1x Fate Reforged Booster Box (Russian): $123
• 2x Khans of Tarkir Booster Box (Japanese): $105 per
• 1x Dragons of Tarkir Booster Box (Korean): $95
• 1x LOTV: $72
• 1x Rest in Peace (foil): $9
• 1x Sol Ring (Judge Foil): $115
• 1x Dragonlord Dromoka (foil): $13
• 4x Shorecrasher Elemental (Japanese): $3.25 per
• 1x Shorecrasher Elemental (Korean foil): $15
• 1x Collected Company (Japanese foil): $35
• 1x Humble Defector (foil): $10
• 4x Iroas, God of Victory (Korean): $3.25 per
• 4x Athreos, God of Passage (Korean): $5.25 per
• 4x Keranos, God of Storms (Korean): $5.25 per
• 4x Kruphix, God of Horizons (Korean): $2.75 per
• 4x Pharika, God of Affliction (Korean): $2.25 per
• 2x Pharika, God of Afflication: $3.25 per
• 4x Myth Realized (foil): $4.25 per
• 1x Eidolon of the Great Revel (foil): $21 per

SOLD (Pucatrade):

• 1x Stoneforge Mystic @ $31.98 (pack opened)
• 1x Tarmogoyf @ $188.50 ($135 cost)

The last couple of weeks have been pretty active for me. I’ve moved in a bit on choice foreign KTK block boxes that I think have great long term upside and I even picked up a couple of boxes of Japanese MM2 boxes that I expect to have solid mid-term upside due to their relative rarity and their use of normal tamper-proof, quality controlled, booster wrappers.

I also through some money at some nicely priced Korean Theros block gods since a few of them are likely to show up in Modern sooner or later, and the others have great casual/EDH chops. My other purchases were the usual crop of opportunistic late night Ebay snipes.

Pucatrade helped me out another Tarmogoyf at close to full value. I bought a couple at $135USD at GPToronto, so this was an easy $100 increase in value.

Once my latest trades are confirmed I’ll be holding about $1200 in Pucapoints, and on the hunt for Power 9, dual lands and Judge foils. If you have anything like that you want to send my way let me know.

Note: The rest of the guys were quiet so far this week.

Bonus Tips:

• MM2 is turning out to be a dramatic release indeed. First we had the overreaction to the lack of compelling rares and uncommons and widespread misinformation about the EV of the set (hint: it will turn out fine.) Now, with packs being opened across the planet, we’re seeing plenty of evidence of a highly dubious collation process, packages that can be tampered with easily, damage to cards from the new cardboard packaging and foils being replaced by placeholder cards. As the highest profile release of the year, and with packs at $9.99 MSRP, WOTC really should have put more effort into nailing this down. Shame.
• If the quality control of English boxes proves out to be suspect, the value of Japanese boxes (which use normal booster packaging) should increase, since MM1 was English only and Japanese vendors are technically forbidden from selling their boxes overseas. Picking up a couple of these as close to $300 as possible should serve your MTG portfolio well.
• Pricing on key MM2 cards has already started the predictable downward spiral. I recommend holding off for now, and jumping into the fray coming out of the triple GP weekend as mentioned last week.
• With the Euro at a low point against the USD, CardMarket.eu has some intriguing arbitrage opportunities on older, high value targets. Poke around and you may find some stuff you can buy list for a couple of hundred bucks.

By: Derek Madlem

Last week I might have come across a little hard on the #mtgfinance. Judging by the feedback I received, the zeitgeist was right there with me for most of what I said … and I received A LOT of feedback, more than any article I’ve ever written.

People associate a lot of bad things with #mtgfinance, even the use of the #mtgfinance hashtag has become a punchline to most people. Though to be fair, what hashtag has anyone ever taken seriously? #thanksObama

So now with everyone who tweets about the price of cards being evil we can all just agree that anyone that considers themselves a Magic financier is probably a terrible person right? After all, they’re out there just ripping off orphans, sharking trades from naive single mothers, and stealing Black Lotuses from the elderly using elaborate e-mail scams right?

The Retail Level

In the distant past there was a time when no Standard legal card was ever worth more than $20, it just didn’t happen. When you opened a pack of 4th Edition the best you could hope for was a Shivan Dragon because it was the most valuable card in the set at $20, with Royal Assassin right behind it at $18. Meanwhile, there were no “dollar rares” … even Chaoslace was $3, just go ahead and give that one a read.

Cards were hard to find, there were no internet stores…hell, there wasn’t really even an internet. It was years later when I convinced my mom to order a box of Tempest from an online store … she had to FAX HER CREDIT CARD INFO … things have come a long way since then.

When people began to approach selling cards as a business rather than a hobby, things revolutionized. Most cards got cheaper. As more and more people entered the fray, competition and innovation increased. The Chaoslaces of the world became what they should be – bulk. But some cards crept up in price. I missed the middle years of Magic, I was absent for everything that occurred from Invasion through Time Spiral block, but you know what I saw when I came back to the game?

Cryptic Command – $20
Bitterblossom – $20
Ajani Goldmane – $20

The best rares still didn’t seem to break through that $20 ceiling. But then we were introduced to Mythic Rares and everything was ruined. I mean seriously, it’s a Magic card … who would pay more than $20 for a stupid piece of cardboard?

As it turns out, a lot of people. Around this time there were a lot of people quitting because Magic was “getting too expensive.” At the  same time the game was experiencing a Groundswell of new players.

Did these players come out of the woodwork because they were secretly waiting for a more expensive game to play? Obviously not. I’m going to put this next part in bold letters because it’s really important.

Tying up more of a set’s aggregate value in a few cards made running a game store easier.

Game stores are popping up everywhere and one of the main drivers of their success is selling Magic singles. Higher prices on popular cards creates opportunity for entrepreneurs. Think about this for a second: most stores made more profit selling a playset of Goblin Rabblemasters than they did selling a box of M15 … this is the reality of running a modern game store.

You know what provides you with all those tables at your local game store? I’ll give you a hint, it’s not the dollar rares or booster pack sales; it’s Baneslayer Angel and Bonfire of the Damned and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. It’s players like you buying cards like these that are creating a place for you and your friends a place to meet up and battle with Magic cards.

Supply and Supply

In my last article I drummed up the artificial creation of demand for certain cards. You know what else the Magic finance community does for you? They create supply as well. Whaaaaaaaat?

The “scrappers” of the finance community are out there aggressively digging through 5,000 count boxes pulling out the gems you need and they’re selling them by the fist full to online retailers, vendors at events, and local game stores. These people keep prices down by keeping the supply flowing into the hands of people that need the cards. With cards as mundane as Gitaxian Probe already hovering around $3, you can imagine what the price would be if the supply were cut in half.

It’s not just about picking bulk, these guys are combing the local game stores that lack an online presence and buying up staples and putting them back into circulation so that you can find them. They’re out there flipping through the binders and boxes of the most casual of players to pluck out these diamonds in the rough.

They’re going into places like this to find cards, so you don’t have to. Those binder grinders are providing inventory for local game stores and online retailers alike to sell. You have to keep in mind that when a store runs out of Goblin Rabblemasters they can’t just order more from the distributor, they have to buy them second hand.

News Team Assemble!

“You heard it here first, the #mtgfinance crowd is not all bad … full story at 11”

One of the biggest benefits the #mtgfinance community has brought to the people is a dissemination of information. As more and more people provide regular content about the financial workings of the Magic economy, the average reader becomes more educated. While it sucks for the old-school sharks that made a fortune trading with the blissfully ignorant, the bulk of the Magic population is better served by being well-informed.

A genre that may have begun as articles about value trading has evolved into much much more. We have writers bringing over real-world finance lessons and explaining complicated concepts in simple terms. We have weekly reports on what we’re buying and selling to promote transparency.

We’ve got writers “attacking the format” from a variety of different angles – casual, Standard, Modern, eternal formats, Commander, Tiny Leaders, and the list goes on and on. I know that I sure don’t care to learn the worldwide metagame for EDH, I play against the same four or five people…but if I read what others are saying about popular EDH cards, then I have a more informed perspective.

All of these content creators are providing current and trending news on the cards you want and the cards you own. They’re boiling down complex concepts and interactions into 140 characters. They’re publishing 2,000 word manifestos on the inner workings of Tiny Leaders. They’re putting in the work analyzing and interpreting trends so you can focus your free time on what makes Magic so magical – playing the game.

As the volume of finance content created increases, the public becomes more informed and we have fewer people throwing away hundreds of dollars on sure-to-fail preorders. As the general public becomes more informed buyers we’ll see a decrease in those outrageous preorder prices and we’ll more quickly discover the cards that have real motivators for demand.

Most importantly we’ll hear less of that guy at our local game store making bold predictions on mundane cards because his audience will be informed enough to shut him up.

Technology

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9ERiI1epI4

I agree, I love technology. You know what drives technology and innovation? Money. Take a look at all of the sweet offerings you have at your fingertips because of this whole #mtgfinance thing. Sites like MTGPrice and QuietSpeculation have cobbled together an assortment of tools to make your lives easier.

Buylist automation and collection tracking are just the tip of the iceberg as far as features we have at our disposal for under a few bucks a month.

We have portable access to pricing through apps and there are numerous “fair trade” apps that will make sure that you don’t leave a single penny on the trade table. All of this technology was created because of the #mtgfinance community. You may not think yourself a financier, but if you’ve ever looked up the price of a card then you’re a part of the community as a whole.

Maybe Not So Bad

Magic finance isn’t all about called shots, buyouts, and spec targets, it’s about understanding the underlying principles. We can read articles to find out the “why” instead of just looking up the “what” of a price.

We have access to a variety of resources that all popped up around this little community. Historic pricing data aggregated from dozens of sources? Yeah, we’ve got access to that. Daily gain / loss reports in our e-mail inbox? Yeah, we’ve got access to that. How many of you remember the old days when you had to log into starcitygames.com the night before you went to FNM to look up the prices of all your cards so that you were on point at the trade tables? Now we’ve got access to up to the minute pricing on our phones from a variety of sources.

We’re living in a world with no $3 Chaoslaces, and I have a hard time saying that’s a bad thing. The next time you hear someone mention MTG finance, remember the good things this community does for all of us regardless of our level of participation.

Until next time, you can find me on twitter @GoingMadlem or you can find me at GP Atlantic City working at the Aether Games booth, stop by and say hello.

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