Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: (Somewhat) Baseless Speculation

Readers!

You know how I am always talking about how my data-driven approach has caused my confidence in my specs to increase as well as my hit rate? You’re getting better advice and making more money, I look smart, people go to EDHREC, etc? This is the week every 6 months we forget all of that.

Well this card is pretty stupid and ignoring the cards that could go up as a result seems stupid, also.

This is the biggest winner in terms of playability because you can force two players at once to hand over their decks (hopefully not on webcam) and you can take anything you want. Normally you’d target yourself and someone you kind of like, but Agent changes the whole game. I already liked this card, for the record.

Being the 9th-most-played card in a frankly STACKED set like Core 2020 is a good indicator that Schemy boi had some upside already. I also think Schemes Supremes over here is sort of tough to reprint per se in the kinds of products where they historically have printed Commander cards so it could be fairly insulated against a reprinting. Sure, you’ll make a ton buying Vampiric Tutor when it bottoms out and then goes back up because it’s Vampiric Tutor, but you didn’t need me to tell you to do that.

Fantastic Voyage over here was already in the midst of shaking off a reprint. It’s curious that it bottomed out 2 years after it was reprinted and not right in 2016 when the Commander deck containing it came out but you can see that the ceiling on the card is about $13 when its supply was half of what it currently is. EDH took it from $2 to $6 as a matter of course, I think its synergy with Opposition Agent makes it a card to *watch* if nothing else.

The internet works fast and this card is drying up faster than it already was. It’s been increasing the whole last year despite being a profoundly boring card to build around. Buying these now will be risky but if you have these, sell into the hype imo.

Any card that spent the year growing in price by 50% on Card Kingdom and stayed flat everywhere else is worth looking at in my opinion, as Card Kingdom is the canary in the coalmine for prices on EDH-only cards. If you can get this for half of what CK is charging now and it goes up, you can probably just turn around and buylist these to Card Kingdom for like $10 in store credit if it spikes. It was climbing anyway, so you actually can’t really lose, here.

This is a trap.

I mean, I think. The *second* time someone did OK at an SCG event with that stupid Food Chain, Misthollow Griffin deck, I really didn’t expect that to be the reason Food Chain went from $10 to $50 considering the initial print hype only made the card go from like $2 to $10 and EDH demand didn’t change at all over that time period. So when I say “this is a trap” I am basing this off of the fact that a deck built around Krark will be terrible and worse than Zndrsplt and Okaun decks already are, which is bad and mostly a novelty. If you have the cards, and you should know what the cards are without my help, sell into the hype. Here’s what I think moves but not sustainably.

This is mostly sold out, but what’s actually curious here is the price trajectory on Card Kingdom specifically.

It is obvious where Battlebond came out, but the price started ticking back up over time after the initial feeding frenzy ended. The deck isn’t built a ton and it’s sort of clunky and all of the stuff that was bulk before went right back down to bulk, but the iconic card stayed high on Card Kingdom specifically. It went back to $4 on TCG Player and up to $20 this week (second spikes will do that) and I still have a bunch of mine from last time because I couldn’t sell them and didn’t want to out them for CK store credit (they’re paying $9 now). Iconic cards don’t plummet like cards like Game of Chaos and Squee’s Revenge are going to. It’s likely too late to make nay money here unless you still had copies from last time, but I think that’s probably fine. The deck sucks without access to Blue, anyway. Also, I think it kind of sucks with access to Blue.

Legendary Creature – Spirit
Reach

Whenever another permanent enters the battlefield under your control, if it wasn’t put onto the battlefield with this ability, you may put a permanent card with an equal or lesser converted mana cost from your hand onto the battlefield.

Partner

So this card is actually incredibly busted AND it has partner so you can add another color (Blue) or other colors (Blue and Red or Black or Black and Red) and did they test this card? It generates a ton of value.

The good news is this is incredibly powerful and will cause a lot of decks to be built. The bad news is that anything this enables is already expensive and probably won’t go up much. I think it’s worth looking at every landfall token producer in this context, every Karoo all the way back to literal Karoo and that cycle and what this gets partnered with. Omnath, Locus of Rage, Emeria Angel, Scute Swarm – there’s no wrong way to generate infinite tokens with this stupid card that, I would like to remind you, can be your commander.

Here is what I think this card is most nutty paired with.

Once flirted with $30, now gettable under $15? Okey dokey. The Mystery Boosters didn’t add as much supply or as cleanly as people think and this is a card that is worth $30 because every set has one or two cards that as good with it. Purphoros and Impact Tremors will always be good in a certain kind of deck.

This is stupid. You make infinite clues with a Karoo. I don’t understand the rationale behind Kodama.

Now, I don’t speak German and some people are alleging that it’s been mistranslated and should read “nontoken permanent” which would still be quite good, but I haven’t seen anyone from Wizards verify that so I’ll assume the translation is correct. Insanity.

Karoos are back on the menu, boys. Yank these out of bulk – CK was getting nearly a buck apiece on these recently.

I’m sure there is stuff that I should have talked about, like the fact that pirates are a huge theme in the set, but since we don’t have any data and anything we’re baking on as a result of these particular cards is a gamble, I’ll save data for when we can afford to wait. For now, sell into hype, buy at your own risk and don’t take any wooden nickels. Until next time!

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Watchtower

The Watchtower 10/26/20 – Do I Feel Lucky?

Okay, so uh, I got my dates wrong re: Commander Legends preview season in my article two weeks ago BUT it turned out I was actually kind of right by accident due to the leaks we saw. I’m not discussing the leaks but it seems like I was thrown off by the set release date being moved back, meaning that preview season got moved too. Nevertheless, I like playing with fire and so I’m back today with some more great cards that I’m confident won’t be reprinted in Commander Legends, so buckle in and don’t forget your wallet. You’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do you, punk?

Stoneforge Mystic (Box Topper Foil)

Price today: $40
Possible price: $70

Remember a few weeks back when I raved about Skyclave Apparition for way too long? Well, turns out I was right the best deck playing it in Modern at the moment is Death & Taxes, featuring – surprise surprise – four copies of Stoneforge Mystic. This is a card that was banned in Modern for a long time, and since its release from jail has shown up consistently in a wide variety of decks, without being so dominant that it could see another ban. As well as being in D&T, Stoneforge shows up in various Stoneblade decks, and can also be found in some of the midrange “Uro Piles” decks.

Stoneforge Mystic shows up in a touch over 8000 EDH decks recorded on EDHREC, and has actually seen an uptick in play with Zendikar Rising, being included in almost half of all Akiri, Fearless Voyager decks. It’s not as prolific as it perhaps could be, but 8000 is a solid number and this box topper is by far the best art the card has ever had so I would not be at all surprised if a large proportion of people wanted to upgrade theirs. I certainly know that I’m going to do so!

The Modern play that Stoneforge sees coupled with moderate EDH demand means that these box toppers aren’t going to hang around forever. Across the board, Double Masters box toppers and regular cards have mostly seen downwards pressure since the set’s release – this is due to a mixture of very little paper play happening, the hype cycle moving on and people saving money for the approaching holiday season. That makes for a perfect little storm, so it’s an ideal time to pick up undervalued cards from Double Masters – and that includes Stoneforge Mystic. This won’t be a quick flip like some things, but I think it’ll be a heck of a long time before we see this art plus borderless treatment on Stoneforge again, so this is a good one to store away for  18-24 months and be pleasantly surprised down the road.

Shalai, Voice of Plenty (Foil)

Price today: $12
Possible price: $25

I’m flying a little closer to the sun here, picking a good Legendary creature that hasn’t been printed in a couple of years. I’m still pretty confident in it though, because it’s still not exactly a high priority reprint and should give us plenty of breathing room.

Shalai is in a surprising 14k EDH decks listed on EDHREC, with another 415 playing her as the commander – and provides multiple powerful effects on one body. Giving hexproof not only to your creatures, but to you and planeswalkers you control as well is a huge boon, meaning that if someone wants to touch you or your boardstate they have to go through Shalai first. If you can’t suit her up with something to give her hexproof or indestructible then you’re really rolling. On top of all that, her second ability can either act as a nice buff for your team, or play part to an infinite mana combo making your creatures arbitrarily large and swinging for lethal in one go.

Shalai also sees a smattering of play in Modern and Pioneer, often being used as a one or two-of in Collected Company / Devoted Devastation decks, both to protect the combo pieces as well as being one in and of itself. There aren’t a lot of foils left, with just 16 listings on TCGPlayer with some promo copies also available. This was before the increased foil drop rate and the card doesn’t have any more fancy versions, so pack foils are a good bet here to head up towards $25 before too long.

Ancient Tomb (ZNR Expedition Foil)

Price today: $46
Possible price: $80

Ok, this is a pretty simple one so I won’t waste too much of your time with it. Ancient Tomb original expedition – $145. Box topper – $95. New expedition – $46. See where this is going? Ancient Tomb is an incredibly popular EDH card, registered in almost fifty thousand decks. We’ve got three premium versions of the card now (the FTV version doesn’t count, despite good art the foiling sucks), and peoples’ choices as to which version they want for their EDH decks will be a combination of budget and aesthetic considerations.

Being able to save $50 by playing the newest expedition as opposed to the box topper will be a big draw for some people, and so it’ll be a popular buy for quite a while as the price moves closer towards the UMA copies. In the meantime, I don’t doubt that the original expedition and box topper prices will also drift upwards a bit, making the window for saving money on the ZNR version wider. Basically, this is good to hit $70-80 in 12-24 months.

Is Ancient Tomb going to be in Commander Legends? I highly doubt it. There is a very slight possibility that it’s included, but if it is I’m sure we won’t get a fancy version and I honestly don’t think we’ll see it at all. I think we’re close to being at lows for Zendikar Rising expeditions, so the next couple of weeks are when you probably want to be picking these cards up, whether it be for personal use, collection or spec purposes. Over time we’ll most likely see the same sort of trend that the Box Topper Ancient Tomb took, not getting up to the dizzy heights of the original expedition but certainly moving a decent chunk.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK and a new writer for MTGPrice in 2020, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

The Reprint Sprint

So we’ve gotten some cards from Commander Legends revealed via some random person who got their hands on some packs and tried to sell stolen goods on eBay, and we’re getting the official previews starting Monday. 

If you want to avoid knowledge of the leaked/stolen cards, I’ll respect that. I’m not going to say what’s in them, except to say that the cards I’m talking about today are not yet known to be reprinted in Commander Legends. What I am doing this week is building my shopping list. So many casual and Commander cards are deliciously valued right now, but one more reprint would mean agonizingly slow growth.

This is a list of cards that I want to buy as soon as the full list of Commander Legends is out, so I can feel that I’m in a pretty good position. Reprints are an ongoing issue (especially with The List’s existence) but I’m choosing casual-focused cards that should swing back up within a year, barring the unforeseen reprint. There’s always the chance of a Secret Lair or some other product popping up, and there’s no way to prepare for that these days except to have a diverse selection of cards in your possession.

Cyclonic Rift (Regular Nonfoil $16) – I think we about at the bottom on Double Masters, as I wrote about a couple weeks ago. Now the only question is which cards needed to be printed back-to-back this way. (Some cards did get this amount of reprinting, and we’ve got the leaks to prove it.) Rift is very attractively priced as a rare in 2XM, and a card poised to jump if it’s not reprinted. It was nearly $30 this past summer, before the reprint, and if it dodges being in Commander Legends I’d expect it to immediately jump a couple of dollars. I’m quoting the price and graph of regular versions, but if you want to get in on the more unique Box Topper, that’s a respectable choice too. We saw with Fabled Passage that Wizards isn’t going to flinch at reprinting Extended Art, and that risk is present with Box Toppers too.

Still, being in 40% of blue decks online, an amazing 83,000 decks, means this is a super-staple and if it is reprinted, I’d be happy to buy in at $10, or even more so at $7 or lower. 

Faeburrow Elder (Regular and Foil – $2.50, EA – $6, EA Foil – $27) – For a card that came out just over a year ago, it’s rapidly become popular. I understand that, as it’s a tremendously awesome accelerator for multicolored decks, and can attack for significant damage. On its own it’s three mana and taps for two, and in a five-color deck can really get out of control. If it’s not printed in Commander Legends, there would be no obvious place to reprint this, and that’s a delightful recipe. 

I think you should definitely grab your personal EA foils now, because there’s only a handful of NM foils on TCGPlayer before you’re in the $50 range. If it isn’t reprinted, then I’m grabbing as many sub-$3 copies as I can before it breaks $5, and then I’m settling in for the ride.

Golos, Tireless Pilgrim ($5/$30) – Core 2020 was the last set to not have a special foil version, but it did have an increased foil drop rate. Even with that increase in foils, Golos has been built 5000 times on EDHREC and played a whole bunch as well. Banning from Constructed play doesn’t mean a thing when I’m focused on Commander, and I imagine that the five-color slot for Commander Legends is a hot one. 

A card this new and this popular, with only regular and nonfoil versions, definitely has my attention if there’s no clear reprint route. It was a rare, not a mythic, and it’s ready to pop. If it’s not reprinted here, I wouldn’t be shocked if nonfoils started to climb, and I’d be expecting it to double. 

Ramos, Dragon Engine ($20 foil from Commander 2017) – This has never been a nonfoil card, but it’s a popular and dangerous Commander card. It’s not in a huge number of decks, but I think that’s more reflective of the short supply rather than the lack of demand. The only way to get one of these was to buy the Dragon-themed Commander deck back in 2016. (Full disclosure: I did and I still have The Ur-Dragon as a commander.) So you needed to buy Dragons, want Dragons, but trade/sell away this super-sweet card that allows you to accelerate and fix and do busted things. There’s only 47 vendors of NM foils on TCG, and of those only four vendors have four or more copies. 

A caveat: I think this is going to get reprinted eventually, that’s a given. But I can’t forecast when! Commander Legends is the prime vehicle for that, or some other five-color Secret Lair. It will happen, but there’s a lot of growth that can happen in the meantime.

Sword of the Animist ($8/$24) – Only ten vendors with NM foil copies, a steep ramp up to $40 for the last one, 24k decks and only the one foil version? This is ripe as can be for a reprint or a spike. Equipment is usually a popular subtheme, and those decks are among the most mana-hungry ones. The graph tells a tale that will merit its own article soon:

This was in Mystery Booster as a nonfoil, and that doesn’t seem to have affected the price at all. Most likely, it’s because the people who opened it (drafters at GPs) are among the most likely to open this and have a Commander deck that could use a copy. If this isn’t reprinted this winter, i’ll be diving in on assorted copies and just waiting for the windfall.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, ProTrader

Pro Trader: Double Masters. THat’s It. THat’s the Title

2 Comments

Readers!

I was stumped for a long time tonight. I had some serious writer’s block, which is not ideal but which sometimes happens. I’m going to level with you, this is going to feel less like an article and more like a list of cards I feel compelled to justify but not much else. If you’re cool with that, thanks. If you’re ecstatic that I’m not trying to frame it as an actual piece and just wanted a list of cards every week, sorry, I don’t plan to make this a habit. If you’re sad, remember this preamble paragraph that I wrote just to build up kind of a running start so I could fling myself headlong into the body of it where I’ll literally just be discussing cards from Double Masters that are underpriced and get played in EDH a lot. Sorry if you wanted more, I wanted more, too, but Commander Legends spoiler season starts in a week (kicked off by two weeks of Commander Legends some piece of garbage leaks everyone’s preview cards season) so we’ll have plenty of inspiration for next time. OK, that’s enough ramp time, let’s dive right into the thick of it, no transition just

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