Casual Fridays

The Mythics of Zendikar Rising (so far)

Zendikar Rising previews have started, and goodness me, do we have some cards going on. Landfall is back, we’re now a full D&D adventuring party, and we have modal land/spell cards! Let’s talk about these new cards, any preorder prices I can find, and where these will be good.

Oh yeah, and fetchlands are back, sort of.

First off, let’s talk for a moment about fetchlands. We know that the full ten are in as new Expedition Box Toppers. There’s 30 lands this time around, with no real clunkers like the doublecheck lands from our second trip to Zendikar. However, these are found in nonfoil as a Box Topper in boxes of Set Boosters and Draft Boosters, with a Collector Booster box coming with two Box Toppers. Let’s take a moment and do that math. To get one nonfoil Scalding Tarn, you’ll have to open 30 Set or Draft Booster boxes, or 15 Collector Booster boxes, or some combination thereof.

That’s a lot of boxes to get a Tarn. Foil Expedition Box Toppers have a 1 in 6 chance of appearing in a Collector Booster. So to get a specific one, like a Tarn, you’ll have to open 180 Collector Boosters to get that card, statistically speaking. (If you run the numbers, it’s worse, but I am not statistician enough to explain why it’s worse.) For every foil Tarn that should get opened this way, that’s 15 boxes, and handily that’s 30 nonfoils along the way. Collector Booster boxes should have, on average, the same number of foil and nonfoil Expedition Box Toppers. The nonfoils have the extra juice from Draft and Set booster boxes, which will help subsidize the EV of those boxes and push the price down on everything else in the set. 

What I’m planning on doing is waiting for the initial rush to settle down, and then picking up any fetchland that drifts too far downwards. This is not a full-scale reprint, this is an auxiliary printing in a new frame, with some sort of sweet glossy texture to it. They won’t get as cheap as they did during Khans of Tarkir, we’re not going to see that quantity again, if ever. Plan accordingly, and keep in mind we aren’t done with the reprints either. Modern Horizons 2 is on the, well, horizon for next year and regular-frame fetches would be a nice inclusion.

We also need to talk for a moment about the mythical cycle of spell/lands. We’ve only got one so far, but it’s a sign of what’s to come: 

There’s a rare cycle that is either color of land on each side, and that’s good, but these lands are a really powerful and consistent addition that will have a long time to make an impact in Standard. Cycling and kicker are two mechanics that offer something to do early and something to do late. Morph creatures are like this as well, asking which path you want to take based on your situation. These spell/lands are even more powerful than that, and we’ve yet to see the rest of the mythics, but this one, Emeria’s Call, is even better than the entering-tapped uncommon cycles. If you need it to be your fourth land on curve so you can Shatter the Sky, it’ll do that for you at the cost of 3 life. Planning is key with these lands, it’s a skill tester but it makes your land slots that much better. Remember that this was Tiago Chan’s original Invitational card, a card deemed to be too good and we got Snapcaster Mage instead:

So how much will Emeria’s Call end up costing us, dollar-wise? The initial price is around $8-$10, and that seems about right for me for a card with this level of flexibility. Should it travel down to $5, I’ll be picking up a lot of them. Remember that this set has two years of Standard legality to go, and that seems a reasonable timeframe for in-person events to start again.

Angel of Destiny – Around $5-$7 right now, and that feels high for such an effect. Everyone gains life, and then you’re sad when this dies and they haven’t lost any life for your efforts. It’s a staple for the lifegain Commander decks though, as it’s an attack trigger to win the game, but then the Angel has to survive to your end step. That’s a lot of hoops to jump through.

Ashaya, Soul of the Wild – Currently about $10, and I’m pretty low on this card. It’s a neat effect to build around, and offers a weird form of protection. Suddenly, with all your creatures being lands, they are immune to things like Cyclonic Rift, Oblivion Stone, or Planar Cleansing. I like building around this in Commander, but I’m not preordering any.

Drana, the Last Bloodchief – Also near $10 but offering an intriguing but conditional build-around. A Limited backbreaker but underpowered in Commander, this price is just too high.

Jace, Mirror Mage – You can find this as low as $12 to preorder, and that’s intriguing. I don’t like that he can’t affect the board at all, and the most logical play pattern is to use his scrying/his duplicate to draw lands so as to minimize the loyalty lost. That’s consistency, which control decks love. I have trouble seeing this as a $20 card though.

Nahiri, Heir of the Ancients – In the $8 range because this is too fair a planeswalker. The plus makes a creature, which gets a free equip but it needs to already be in play. Too bad Colossus Hammer is rotating out! I think this price is spot on, as RW equip decks in Commander will keep the demand just high enough.

Nissa of Shadowed Boughs – What’s not clear is where this Nissa fits. Yes, she wants to reanimate something with her minus, but how did the creature get into the yard to begin with? And again, this isn’t global reanimation, but limited to the amount of lands you have in play. Thoroughly deserving of the $10 she’s at, and likely to tumble.

Omnath, Locus of Creation – This is super neat, and capable of some truly nasty turns. Of note, though, is the ‘draw a card’ rider just for playing a 4/4 for WURG. The triple Landfall is great when you resolve it, and resolving the second trigger makes the third a lot easier. Needs a lot of help, though, and while I’m fully expecting this Omnath to cause some spikes in random cards, by itself it won’t be mega-expensive. 

Sea Gate Stormcaller – For about $15, you can preorder a doublecaster mage. This is likely better than Dualcaster Mage, as you have more control and can go double if you’ve got the mana, but the utility of the card is heavily dependent on what your next spell is. Clearly your best-case scenario is Time Walk, but your choices in Standard are going to be difficult. I’m looking forward to seeing what sort of impact this has on other formats, though. Getting a double Thoughtseize seems pretty good, or a double Brainstorm? This doesn’t have flash, which is a drawback, but this is one of the cards I like most in the long term.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Speculating for Speculators

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So I heard you like to speculate. You’re all a bunch of speculators and you love to speculate on Magic cards. You love to play your little games where you speculate on card prices like a bunch of speculators. Well speculate about THIS.

This meaning the information that leaked this week that seems fairly credible, coupled with what Maro said this week. If I can think of anything that could go up as a result, I’ll talk about it here. If you’re not happy with that, go buy basically anything on the Reserved List because enough people are doing it that it will probably work out. Who am I to judge people for doing literally the laziest thing possible?

I’m going to talk about the leaks first and then finish with Maro’s stuff. The leaks are less certain but Maro’s stuff is more vague. I can sense you pulling away. What would you have me talk about this week? Just go with it.

If this is all true, it could be pretty spectacular.

Lotus Cobra being reprinted would be sort of meh, the price wasn’t super high on it but when it bottoms out, it’s a buy-in opportunity. However, if Lotus Cobra is in the set, and it’s looking like it could be since this source is fairly credible, it confirms landfall as a mechanic. Any landfall enabler currently in an Omnath deck is in play. I suspect the new Omnath will be one of the more exciting decks to build since it will likely be 4 colors. Landfall has always been good and now we get to play with cards like Admonition Angel and Ruin Ghost, both of which I like at their current price.

Looks like Card Kingdom got the memo but other sites like CFB seem to be lagging behind a bit.

There were more of these and they were cheaper the first time I wrote about these but you can buy the last few copies under a buck. I think this is quite good in landfall decks and it goes infinite with Retreat to Coralhelm.

When people were playing Knightfall in Modern a million (or 4) years ago, this was the belle of the ball. Now it’s fallen significantly, but a card that flirted with $10 can get above it’s current “not even $2” can’t it? It’s good in landfall decks and we’re likely to get some of those.

Shadowborn Apostle seems like a trap. If it’s reprinted the price tanks and anyone buying Demons to pair with them doesn’t really understand how the deck works. You can look at how the deck is being built right now if you want but I don’t think it suddenly becomes hot again. I could be wrong, so by all means poke around the Athreos, Shirei and Razaketh (my preview card!) lists on EDHREC if you want. If you’re quick, you could end up being able to sell out to people having these same thoughts we’re having now but 2 weeks from now when something is confirmed and not holding the bag even if you’re wrong. You don’t have to be right all the time if you’re quick enough.

The Legendary Demon in the set could be a build-around or it could just make decks like Kaalia and Razaketh better. You could make money on Thrumming Stone again. I’m not personally trifling with any of it but there are plays here if you want.

I have made the mistake of thinking people were going to build tribal clerics but if the demon benefits from people saccing Clerics, they could be in play again. Edgewalker, Starlit Sanctum, all of it.

It’s sort of hard to tell if Apostle is being reprinted or if he’s speculating that they would be good in the set because of the Demon. I am not saying buy them in case they’re not reprinted, because I don’t think he’s saying that. If you had a card like the one he described, and you assumed it was Black, how would you build the deck? What if he was White and Black? I am not sure how tasty any of those pickups are and we’ll likely have some time. A demon like this seems more like a Vannifar than a Teysa, but I hope I’m wrong. I think we can safely wait and see what the deck looks like, but if you want to have the cards to sell to people when that happens, there’s a lot of info about this demon.

I kind of love that the new Avenger of Zendikar thing is Legendary since it will give me something good to write about on Coolstuff Inc. Do you see how I always build crap like that? Cryptolith Rite and Goblin Bombardment and Craterhoof and Purphoros and like, if this description is accurate, I’ve already built the deck. It’s boring how built the deck is. Here is what you probably don’t have enough copies of and I would buy for this deck.

If this is indeed not in the set, it’s going to be in about half of the new decks built with Legendary creatures from the set. I think it’s probably in Commander Legends but I also think sometimes WotC doesn’t know what they’re doing. Training Grounds is like $40, do you think they read my tweets? I don’t think I would do a better job than they are, per se, but when something is obvious to me and all of you and they don’t do it, you have to wonder if it’s because they know way more than us or way less.

$2 on Coolstuff? No way that’s correct.

Finally this popped. I’ve been waiting forever with a box of these. They’re still too cheap.

Look at what goes in Red Omnath decks, while you’re at it. This new Avenger of Zendikar wannabe will be linear and obvious and that means everyone will build the same basic way with the same basic cards. We know what all of the cards that will go in the deck that already exist are because they’re in like a half dozen identical decks. Mina and Denn, Radha, Omnath, Omnath, to an extent, Omnath, etc. Those decks always have Cobra, Avenger, Oracle of Mul Daya, Exploration, Ramunap Excavator, Azusa (cheap as hell right now), Wayward Swordtooth, Tireless Tracker, etc. It’s boring but that kind of deck is fun and I have multiple decks with those exact cards. Why take one apart just to build a new one?

I don’t care about the angel at all, but considering I’ve written like 10,000 words about everything else, who cares?

Maro’s list is way more vague but I think we can still pick out some tidbits.

Let’s go point by point and see if any of it matters in the complete abstract to the extent that we can figure out what to buy.

A white creature that can make an opponent lose the game simply by attacking them no matter how much life they have

I don’t know the victory condition so it’s impossible to say. I think it probably has to do with life totals. Check out decks on EDHREC that play cards like Serra Ascendant and Felidar Sovereign, maybe? I’m guessing.

 A multicolor creature that lets you repeatedly reanimate permanents out of your opponent’s graveyard for no mana

I don’t know what this is, maybe like a reverse Muldrotha? I don’t know, it seems sweet but since I don’t know what you need to do to activate or trigger it, it’s hard to know what to buy. I bet it’s Sultai colors but that’s a guess. Seems awesome, frankly, can’t wait to build the deck. If you read my 75% column on Coolstuff, you know it’s exactly in my wheelhouse.

Three creatures with five creature types

This all but confirms allies. They nerfed Coat of Arms so it would no longer give each of these creatures +5/+5 for each other creature they shared 5 types with. 5 types means they’re probably short so they can fit on one line, so I’m guessing 2 of them are Kor and Ally, but that’s a guess. This sucks, I thought I’d have more hits.

An artifact granting +2/+2 to a subset of creatures that first appeared in Alpha

I assume this is a tribe but I can’t be sure. Alpha’s tribes were pretty boring. I don’t want to devote too much thought to this.

X being used for a variable it’s never been used for before

Neat.

a 6/6 artifact creature that costs 3 and a 7/5 artifact creature that can cost 3

Neat.

The return of four mana symbols that have each only ever been used on two cards before

I assume it’s the 2R on Flame Javelin and Reaper King but I’m guessing.

Lands that come with a choice you’ve never had before

Neat.

Targeted enchantment removal in black

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

A red/white creature with a line of rules text that starts with “Whenever” and ends with “draw a card”

I bet this sees play in EDH unless the condition is silly. Mangara is already making an impact.

A card with three different activated abilities that all copy something

Sweet. I don’t know what to buy but I assume this is Temur colors and Kalamax and Riku players already want this without knowing what it is or what it does. It could be a slightly better Mirrorpool after all.

“don’t lose unspent red mana”

This is the only rules snippet beside “Twice the number of equipment” that caught my eye. I hope it’s not an ability on the Omnath because Red is easily the worst color in the Temur Omnath deck and I generate as little Red as I can get away with. Still, this could make Braid of Fire go nuts.

This is all complete and total speculation, but if you can keep Red mana phase to phase like with Green Omnath, Braid of Fire goes right back t o $30 again. It flirted with $30 already which made all of the $10 copies at every LGS disappear. If it spikes again, it will be harder and faster. If you are feeling ballsy, buy a stack. If you think you will play this ever and don’t want to pay $30, buy 2 copies and when it goes to $30, sell your spare, play with your free copy and pocket $18 for your trouble. Sound good?

Finally, the leaker also said the Legendary crab is a 0/17 that gets +X/-X for each Island you control when you activate it. People are hoping it has Defender because that would be sick in Arcades, but it doesn’t sound like it has Defender, although some crabs do. However, here’s exhibit A in my argument against Defender.

Hedron Crab · Zendikar (ZEN) #47 · Scryfall Magic: The Gathering Search

Hedron Crab has 0 power and can still attack. I think instead of looking at Arcades, there’s another commander we should be looking at.

Phenax, God of Deception

Tap a crab to mill someone for 17, which grows your Wight of Precinct 6 and your Consuming Abberation. It’s stupid and terrible to try and mill people, but doing it for 17 cards at a time in a deck that, if I were building it, runs Intruder Alarm, it seems like it would get there. I think the crab is probably a bad, meme card, but it turns out those sell. They made fake My Little Pony cards and they sold out in minutes.

This is a lot to think about, but I for one think the leaks are credible. I was hoping landfall would be back as a mechanic and I’m glad to see it is. The more we get revealed coming up in the next few weeks, the more we’ll be able to get a bit more granular on our picks but for now, plan for mechanics and decks built around the cards we (assume we) know. That does it for me. Until next time!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 08/31/20 – Infallible Arbitrage

You won’t believe this one simple trick that’s guaranteed to make you money! Vendors hate it!

Clickbait aside, if you’ve been reading my articles for a reasonable length of time, you’ll know that there are always some excellent arbitrage opportunities in flipping cards from Europe to the USA. Sometimes it can be buying cards in bulk at release for longer holds into a buylist, sometimes it can be for quick flips, but either way it tends to work out pretty well. This week I wanted to have a look at a particular set of cards that have consistently been some of the best and safest cards to arbitrage, so read on to find out what I’m talking about…

I’m talking about Judge foils, and the last few years have proven that it’s honestly pretty hard to miss on them. Imperial Seals bought at €85 sold in the US for over $200 within 12 months, and are now closing in on $500. Rhystic Studys and Food Chains bought at €30-40 last year are now selling for $100 in the US, and so on. So what are the best opportunities at the moment?

Elesh Norn (Judge Foil)

Price on MKM: €150 ($180)
Price on TCG: $295

After Elesh Norn was first released as a Judge foil back in 2014, it wasn’t long before the card shot up and got over $700. It was the only card to ever be printed with Phyrexian text on it, meaning that it was hugely sought after, and being in pretty low supply the market drained quickly. It wasn’t until a reissue in 2017 that the price was brought back down to around $250, and then another reissue in the latter half of 2019 brought it right down under $170.

This was a slightly better pickup a month ago when there were still €110 copies on MKM, but even now at €150, I think it’s still a safe bet. The cheapest NM copy on TCGPlayer is $295, so still a very nice margin there, and there are only 9 NM copies total on TCG – not exactly a lot. By the time you get this from Europe to the US I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices well over $300, so don’t hang around if you want to get in on this one.

Demonic Tutor (Judge Foil)

Price on MKM: €90 ($107)
Price on TCG: $160

No matter how many times Demonic Tutor is printed, in whatever form, it always goes back up. Remember when the UMA printing brought it down to $20? And now it’s $32 again. 67k EDH decks is a LOT, and it doesn’t take many of them wanting the new Judge foil version to push the price up. $107 to $160 isn’t as big a gap as it might seem once you factor in fees and shipping, but I like holding onto this one a little while. I can see it pushing $200 and above within the year, which is much tastier.

The one caveat here is that we might see a reissue of Demonic Tutor in the next wave of Judge promos, so a good plan is either to flip this one relatively soon, or just buy more and dollar-cost-average when the next wave hits. It’s often the case that with a second wave, the price ends up lower than it was from the first wave, but then bounces right back up in 12 months or so. This is exactly what happened with Rhystic Study and Food Chain, but there was still plenty of room to make money on both cards, both before and after the second wave.

Sliver Legion (Judge Foil)

Price on MKM: €75 ($90)
Price on TCG: $325

Yep, you read that right. $235 difference here, but copies in Europe are draining hard and the €75 ones won’t be around for long. Only 5 listings on TCG ranging from $325 to $800 shows seriously low supply of this card, and major vendors are all out of stock. It’s not the most popular EDH card compared to some other Judge promos, but if you’re playing a Sliver deck then you’re playing this card, and your only options are this one or the Future Sight version, which I think has inferior art.

This is definitely a quick flip target if you can get it, and even if the US price retraces a bit once some more copies hit the market, I can’t see it sinking back down anywhere close to the $90 range. Again, we might see another wave of these promos sent out, but you should be able to flip this long before that happens.

Lastly, if you’re wondering how to go about getting a foothold in EU arbitrage, you can check out my article on it here, and if you’re a Protrader you can also hop into our Discord server and link up with members on the opposite side of the pond from you. Any questions, hit me up on Twitter or in the Discord!

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK and a new writer for MTGPrice in 2020, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

Core 2020 at Rotation

Next week, we should start seeing official previews for Zendikar Rising. There have been some unofficial leaks, but I’ve never believed in those speculations and if I write something here, I want to be confident in it, not building a whole cart of cards based on one grainy image.

Rotation is upon us, and in recent weeks, I’ve gone over all the rotating sets and tried to help you pick what’s underpriced. The last one I’m getting to is Core 2020, the last set before Collector Boosters entered our awareness and the first set with an enhanced foil drop rate. Consequently, you’re not going to see any Extended Art/Showcase/Borderless picks here, just the last gasp of foil vs. nonfoil. Ah, those simpler times.

To the cards!

First of all, we need to talk about how cheap the cards in this set are. They are definitely feeling a bit underpowered compared to the ban-fest that was Throne of Eldraine, but the #6 and #8 cards on the list of ‘what’s worth the price of a pack’ are both uncommons. 

Granted, Twinblade Paladin was from a Planeswalker deck, but you get the idea…and let’s start there. The Twinblade cannot be had in foil, but it is a $5 card. It comes down as a 3/3 double strike in Commander, given that it says 25 life and not the more recent templating of ‘five more life than your starting total.’ Then it grows with every bit of incidental lifegain you can throw at it, a pretty solid card but the distribution here is key: You’ve got to open a $15-$20 package to get one of these, and that sets a price ceiling. If you can find the deck for $10, it’s hard to lose money, given that you get a booster pack, but the potential is still there.

If you like to play lifegain decks, I’d get your copy now. The ramp to $10 is not a slow one on TCG, and specs like this absolutely depend on never getting reprinted. Most of the Planeswalker deck exclusives are not this good, and are tied to their specific (crappy) planeswalker, so I’d rate the reprint risk as medium to high. It’s been a while since we had a lifegain-focused Commander deck, and this would be a prime candidate for inclusion.

Veil of Summer ($7 nonfoil/$43 foil) – For a card that got banned from Standard in November, the graph looks remarkably healthy, even as the banhammer hit in Pioneer, Historic, and Modern:

I have to say, this is a Commander card with a healthy dose of Legacy love. More than 14,000 decks play this card, including a boatload of competitive EDH builds too. Wizards knows this card was a mistake, and there’s only 12 NM foils on TCG right now. And this is with the increased foil drop rate! As an extra kick, since it’s uncommon, there’s no prerelease foils out there!

I wouldn’t be shocked if one day we got Secret Lair: Banned and this was one of the cards. I also wouldn’t be shocked if this was a $60 foil in three months. Given that the reprint risk has never been higher, I feel like you should at least get foils for the decks you use. This is one of those ‘they can’t reprint everything’ specs because they really don’t want to reprint a card that’s been banned in so many formats.

Vivien, Arkbow Ranger ($5/$11) – Picking up this version of Vivien is basically placing a bet on the future of Pioneer in paper. There’s a mono-green planeswalker-focused deck that loves going big with Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, and assorted delightful Karn, the Great Creator targets in the sideboard. If you think Pioneer is going to come back in a big way, this is a card you want to stock up on. Mythic, summer set, it’s a four-of…it checks all the boxes you’d hope for in a big spec. 

Has to be said, though, that we’re in an uncertain timeline. If the pandemic were not happening, this would be a lock. But if the pandemic wasn’t happening, this wouldn’t have gotten so cheap in paper. One of the indicators I look for in this regard is that online, she’s nearly 9 tickets. That’s a noticeable gap and it means something is happening online that isn’t happening in paper…yet. I do think Pioneer will be back in person eventually, but the uncertain timeframe has me leery on this.

Lotus Field ($6/$12) – There’s a few fun decks in Modern and Pioneer that will tap and untap this a whole bunch, play Omniscience, and then win with Enter the Infinite/Jace, Wielder of Mysteries. That’s awesome. It’s also in 6k Commander decks online, which is a high enough number that I want to have a few foils in reserve for when they hit $20.

Icon of Ancestry ($1.50/$3) – Go look around at what’s in stock on this and you’ll see that a surprising number of places don’t have this in stock. It’s a tribal enabler, which is good, but it’s also quite likely to be reprinted in a future Commander product. Foils are where you want to be here, and won’t take much to hit $10, given how quickly the ramp goes up into the $6 range for foils on TCGPlayer.

Gargos, Vicious Watcher ($1.50/$4) – Gargos caught a minor bump when Zaxara, the Exemplary came along in Commander 2020:

Yes, Hydras just got all the love with this new Commander but this has a clear place and it’s one of the first cards people will reach for on Hydra builds. I love tribal payoffs, and this is clearly one of them. Plus the buylists offer a pretty safe haven: foils are being bought around $2 in store credit, so time your purchases well and you’re insulated from things going wrong.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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