Ravnica Allegiance at Rotation

We’re one week into Core 2021, and frankly, you should be selling most of what you’re opening. Teferi, Master of Time is down several dollars in the last week and he’s not done falling. This is a great time to be flipping cards/sealed product to the people that have to have things right now, and also a time to be looking at the cheapest cards in Standard as they prepare to rotate into the Eternal arena.

Last week was Guilds of Ravnica, now it’s time for Ravnica Allegiance. Let me tell you, this set has some clunkers, but also some unexpected opportunities.

Let’s start with the biggies: The Shocklands. Breeding Pool is at an all-time high, at $25 for a Standard land. I don’t think any of the fetches were that high during KTK, Cavern of Souls was close to that at one point. What’s really impressive is this price point when it’s got a huge supply from the other trips to Ravnica and also this close to rotation. 

I think you should sell your Pools and your Blood Crypts ($15) right now. Yes, Pioneer adds a layer of demand to the shocks but that’s not going to balance out the lack of demand once Standard changes. If you can get $17 each for your set of Pools (According to our buylist tools, MiniatureMarket is buying them at $18.75 from Ravnica Allegiance) that’s $68, and I’ll be stunned if you have to spend $12 each on them by Christmas. Much more likely is the $8-$9 price they were at before. 

And let’s face it, you’re not going to play a lot of in-person Sanctioned Magic before rotation anyway. GET YOUR VALUE.

Hydroid Krasis ($13/$26 foil) – This has been trending downwards since its glory days, but really, this big flying Jellyfish Hydra Beast will always be besties with Nissa, who Shakes the World. It’s a fantastic payoff for ramp strategies in Commander and Cube, and foils are a solid pickup. Pioneer has a good Simic Ramp deck, and that will likely be enough to keep the price of nonfoils stable around $10 until this is reprinted in the next ‘X spells matter’ Commander set. Even with that deck’s existence, I’d be selling my copies of this and getting what I can. Again, we aren’t going to play in paper until after rotation.

Guardian Project ($5/$13) – The ship has sailed on getting these cheap, and if you have any currently, I’d tell you to sell them, take your profits, and move on. Commander Legends at the end of this year would be the main place I’d look for a reprint, but Green decks in Commander are spoiled for choice when it comes to ‘creatures draw you a card’ effects. This is better than Elemental Bond in most decks, and outclasses Beast Whisperer. Cheaper than Primordial Sage and Soul of the Harvest, too. It’s in a sweet spot and if you’re happening to run Panharmonicon-type effects, it gets doubled up. It’s hard not to like this card long-term, but the reprint risk is very high and cannot be ignored. Even if it dodged a new printing this year, it’s a great candidate for Commander 2021.

Prime Speaker Vannifar ($3/$14) – This is the next-to-last set where the idea of a ‘foil multiplier’ still holds, and portends great things here. I’d expect foils to be in the $10 range, but being higher than that indicates a strong casual demand for the shiny version. It’s a mythic, a combo engine, a ‘fixed’ version of a banned-in-Modern card. I picked foils this week on MTG Fast Finance to double up in the next 18 months, and as an engine card for Modern and Pioneer, I’m pretty confident. Reprints are a risk, and Simic gets all the fun toys lately, so I understand if you’re hesitant, but I promise, this isn’t going to let you down.

Persistent Petitioners ($2/$7) – This went up by a big amount as Jumpstart entered the equation and made Bruvac the Grandiloquent one of the most expensive and sought-after Commanders. Let’s put it this way, even with Petitioners buylisting at $1+, there’s only 112 total copies on TCG right now, of all conditions, foils and non. That’s tiny, and likely a reflection of constrained inventory management due to the coronavirus. Expensive commons are what allows a store to buy bulk collections, and something’s got to give here. The really good news here from a speculative standpoint: Unless this is reprinted in a big Standard set, a reprint doesn’t matter at all. Commander decks are going to play at least 20 copies of this card (Stock up on Thrumming Stone!) and more likely 30+. Being included as a one-of someplace means nothing, and aside from the Rat Colony Secret Lair, I can’t imagine they’d devote a slot of slots to this card. 

I can see this buylisting for $3 once people get their Bruvac copies, so now might be the time to move in.

Rhythm of the Wild ($1.70/$9) – Because this has the Riot keyword, it’s not quite the hammerlock to be reprinted that you might expect…but it will get another nonfoil printing. It’s a golden, wonderful, warm blanket of happiness on turn 3 in a Commander game, and has a foil multiplier to back that up. It gets better, too: There are ten vendors with foils on TCG right now (one has 21 copies!) and it’s in 18,000 EDH decks. I can’t tell you when it’ll get another printing, but it’ll be soon. It’s too good in Commander not to be in the next RGx deck that has a ton of creatures. I can list a lot of cards with similar effects, like Temur Ascendancy or Akroma’s Memorial, but being an enchantment means the ‘can’t be countered’ clause is going to be in effect even after assorted sweepers.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Unlocked Pro Trader: Make Bad Cards Good More

Readers!

One problem I have with Wizards making cards for Commander on purpose instead of accidentally is that bad cards will be phased out by 2023. Rhystic Study used to be trash. Big, dumb, 7-mana creatures used to be pipe dreams and now they’re the first play that isn’t a mana rock or ramp spell that people play. The format is adding more and more “must-play” cards and the days of EDH being a bulk rare format are over.

This is why it’s heartening to see decks that make bad cards relevant. It’s heartening as a player and exciting as a financier because cards going from unplayed to must-include, even in fringe decks, can make you some money. Bottomless Pit’s price shows how inefficient the market is right now and while it likely won’t stick, it’s also taking its sweet time moving because of the inability of sellers to get copies onto the platform. Once a card is $11 on TCG Player, it’s not going to stay cheap everywhere else.

Tinybones was obvious but the second most popular commander from this week’s set drop could make even more obscure cards go up. Let’s look at the second coming of Zedruu.

Inniaz, the Gale Force (Commander / EDH MTG Deck)

Inniaz looks like a lot of fun and, more importantly, could bump up some old, worthless cards. Let’s look at a few, shall we? Like, I can dispense with some of the preamble because you’ve read enough of my articles by now to know my methods and if you haven’t, you can figure out how to read the last few? Plus I forgot. Let’s just do the article.

I’m not sure why this is so cheap but I like this for getting your stuff back and triggering some ETB effect while you’re at it. There’s no reason not to play Cloudblazer and Mulldrifter in a deck like this and both are great to donate then yoink back, then repeat. One Cloudblazer can come in, trigger, participate in combat next turn, trigger Inniaz, go to the opponent, get blinked, trigger again, etc. If you’re getting your fliers back and getting ETB triggers to boot, you can mitigate Inniaz’s parity, and not have to keep running out fliers to replace the ones you lost. This has other opportunities to go up and I’ve wondered why this hasn’t hit $10 yet. It will, I just don’t know when. If you’re not convinced, ask yourself where they could reprint this.

Many printings means lots of copies, but this has also been shrugging those reprints off. I think the fact that the non-foil price is approaching the foil price means something is coming soon. These seem low-risk to me and another reprint just means you have an opportunity to buy in even cheaper until your average cost is so low that you don’t feel bad you paid its current $1 price tag.

This card is perfect for this deck and if it maintains popularity like it should, getting in on the absolute floor for foil copies seems prudent. I don’t know what the foil could go to, but I don’t think it can get any cheaper than like $1.50 on TCG Player. It’s not entirely unplayed now…

…just almost entirely. At dirt cheap, the foils have some upside, provided Inniaz catches on.

One interesting caveat I might as well mention now is that Inniaz is a pain to play on webcam and that’s where a lot of EDH is played these days. Everyone having to have proxies for cards they’re borrowing means you’re making work for everyone with your deck choice and they might not appreciate it after awhile. Some people might decide they don’t want the hassle of playing with this deck and it could hurt its adoption. It wasn’t something they considered when they printed the card but it matters now.

This card is played quite a bit, and it’s absurd in this deck where you either blink it to refresh it and get it back or just let someone else have a 1/1 with no blue mana to activate it.

With 3 printings, there are copies out there, but with copies gettable around $4 or $5, how little people play Modern anymore won’t matter since demand will only increase for this card. It likely doesn’t get reprinted again since the price is way under control and it’s pretty absurd in Inniaz decks.

This is sold out everywhere but TCG Player (and MKM, I guess) because it deals people 20 damage and that’s hilarious because you gain 20 life and then ruin someone’s day. Can’t beat that!

There are a ton of cards like Rust Elemental, Steel Golem, Illusions of Grandeur and Thought Lash that hurt the opponent in obvious ways, but Statecraft is old Zedruu tech that hurts them in a bit more of a subtle way. Their creatures are harder to kill but they can’t hurt anyone with theirs and you can really shut a player down with something like this. Pass this as many times as you have to until the right person is having trouble doing anything. Check out the full Zedruu page for more ideas.

Speaking of Thought Lash…

Looks like people already got the memo. This makes me like Illusions even more.

There are other cards in here that are already expensive, but I think some of the inexpensive cards have the ability to go from unplayed to un-keep-in-stock-able on the basis of a popular new commander. Will it stay popular? Who knows? Kalamax has unseated Xyris as Teysa unseated Vannifar and Core 2020 commanders are being built more than Commander 2020 commanders. Everything is messed up right now, but when I get more data, I’ll have more answers and we have more time than ever before. Thanks for reading, everyone. Stay healthy, stay safe, and wear a mask you bunch of savages. Until next time!

The Watchtower 06/29/20 – Seeing Double

I’m a little pushed for brain space at the moment so today’s article is a little shorter than usual, but to make up for it I’ve got double the picks. That’s right, you’re getting two for the price of one here, so don’t say I never give you anything for free. I’m taking a special focus on some foil extended art cards that are well poised to take a jump up, so read on for a little extra juice than usual.


Eerie & Ruinous Ultimatum (Foil EA)

Price today: $16
Possible price: $30

These are the two most popular of the five Ultimatums from Ikoria, being the most powerful effects out of the lot for EDH play. As I talked a bit about last week, stock of these foil Showcase and EA cards is much lower than we might expect from other sets due to the release of Ikoria during a worldwide pandemic.

This is reflected on TCGPlayer, with only 22 listings of foil EA Eerie Ultimatum and only 9 for Ruinous Ultimatum. Prices on both start around $16 but ramp up pretty sharply, and I don’t think it’ll be too long before we see these cards hit $30+. We’re unlikely to see this treatment on these specific cards again if they get reprinted somewhere, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the foil EA versions of these even hit $40 in a year or two.

Dryad of the Ilysian Grove & Thassa’s Oracle (Foil EA)

Price today: $40
Possible price: $60

Moving over to Theros Beyond Death, the two most popular EDH cards by a country mile are Dryad of the Ilysian Grove and Thassa’s Oracle. This demand for both cards has been further pushed by their competitive constructed applications, with Oracle being a key part of both the Inverter and Underworld Breach decks in Pioneer, and Dryad a new staple for Primeval Titan and Scapeshift decks in Modern.

11 listings for Oracle and 16 for Dryad on TCGPlayer mean that once the few copies around $40 disappear, you’ll want to shop around other retailers, LGSs and other places to source copies of these cards. There’s no fresh supply of them on the horizon and so I don’t think we’re far away from $60+ on either of these cards.

If you’re in, or have contacts in the EU, there are copies around €20 on MKM, so there’s another decent arbitrage opportunity here. 

Ayara, First of Locthwain & Faeburrow Elder (Foil EA)

Price today: $20/30
Possible price: $40/50

Jumping back in time again to Throne of Eldraine, Ayara and Faeburrow Elder are both reasonably popular EDH cards in the 99, with Ayara also being a relatively popular commander too. They’re both pretty close to auto-includes in decks for their colours; Ayara for mono-black and Faeburrow for anything playing 3+ colours.

Whilst the regular versions of both these cards are sitting at around $1, it’s obviously an entirely different story with the foil extended art versions. Stock is getting low, with only 10 copies of Ayara and 25 copies of Faeburrow Elder available on TCGPlayer, and other major retailers out of stock or close to it.

With comparatively such low numbers of these cards around, I think that Ayara could go from $20 to $40 and Faeburrow from $30 to $50 on a 12-18 month timeline.


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK and a new writer for MTGPrice in 2020, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Guilds at Rotation

Quick reminder that Magic Finance 101 calls for you to sell all the cards you may get this weekend the moment you can. Lock in that value, because many of them are going to lose a lot of value. (Yes, Azusa, Lost but Seeking, I’m looking at you and you’re trying to hide in the back.)

More notable, though, is that with the release of the Core Set we are now about three months away from rotation. We’re losing four sets: Guilds of Ravnica, Ravnica Allegiance, War of the Spark, and Core Set 2019. There’s some gems hiding in these sets from more than a year ago, and we’re looking for one of two things: casual appeal and Eternal appeal. 

To clarify, Eternal means all of the nonrotating Constructed formats: Vintage, Legacy, Modern, and Pioneer. (Historic is pretty irrelevant, financially speaking, until the day that Historic lines up with Pioneer, and then it won’t matter.) Casual appeal isn’t just the kitchen table player, it’s also Commander and Cube considerations.

To the cards!

Divine Visitation ($15 nonfoil/$20 foil) – I’ve written about this card before, and right now, there’s 14 vendors with NM copies on TCGPlayer. It’s a mythic, one of the best things a token deck can do, and very likely to get reprinted at some point. This means you should grab foils, which is more protected against losing value when the reprint lands. If you like numbers, this is in about seven thousand decks over on EDHREC, which is respectable for a card nearly two years old. What you’re really hoping for is 1) no reprint and 2) a token-themed Commander next year (or later this year in Commander Legends?) that has white in its color identity. It’s pretty easy to see this hitting $40 in foil.

Thousand-Year Storm ($9/$18) – Another card on the rise, it’s jumped several dollars on the back of Kalamax, the Stormsire. If you bought in earlier this year at $2, you’ve had chances to get out at $7. Again, it’s a mythic that has a lot of casual appeal and there’s been combo decks built around the card, lots to like as long as it’s not reprinted. Only 15 sellers of NM foil copies on TCG here as well, and that’s an easy card to like long-term.

Chromatic Lantern ($8/$12 foil/$95 Masterpiece) – I don’t think this is a good buy. It’s been in a couple of reprints, including the Mystery Booster, and there’s a large supply out there. The price it’s at will be the price for this card for quite a while, and that’s before the inevitable reprints that are coming. I think the Invention version is an excellent investment, though, and you should definitely get your personal copies now while they are under $100.

Arclight Phoenix ($5) – Let’s take a look at the price graph, remembering that Arclight was in the Challenger deck announced in March of 2019:

Arclight was a $25 card before it started sliding, and the slide never really stopped. The deck still exists and is good, if not top-tier at the moment. Here’s why you want to have a stack of Arclights ready to go: At some point, Wizards will screw up and make a free spell in Pioneer that’s worth playing. Modern has a lot of such spells to abuse, and Phoenix is an established deck there. Pioneer is close, there’s a lot of good things to do, but there’s going to be a tipping point card and that’s when you’ll want to buylist a brick of these at $10 or $12 each.

Drowned Secrets ($1.50/$3) – With Mill being a keyword at long last, there will be a lot of interest in cards that mill, and in Commander you need to do a lot of milling…which this can do. One or two reshuffle effects and you’ll really churn through a deck. I’m pretty sure there hasn’t been a strong mill Commander yet…and then Jumpstart brings us Bruvac the Grandiloquent. Doubletime, everyone! (yes, I think this is a good card to end up in Double Masters)

Chance for Glory ($1.50/$5) – Finally, a card I don’t own any of and I keep meaning to buy copies of, this will be used in some sort of crazy combo deck in Modern and Pioneer. You’ve got safer ways to take extra turns in Commander, but if you’re trying to go off in some way, this is the winner on how to wrap it up and finish the game off. I do love picking up lots of foil mythics that are underpriced, and when this hits, it’ll hit big. You can get in for a little less than $5 if you shop around and combine shipping, but the profit will be there when this takes off.

Shocklands (varied) – I don’t think it’s a good idea to try and stock up on shocks. We have had three large printings of shocklands, along with some random extras in Challenger decks and the like. There will 100% be Ravnica 4: Jumping the Sharknado at some point, and it’ll have these again. If the shocks manage to make it to $5 again I’d like buying in, but it took several amazing Simic cards straight for Breeding Pool to be to expensive. Please don’t try to buy these up for future value.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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