The Plan for the throne

We are on the cusp of real Theros: Beyond Death previews, to start around the second week of the New Year. It’s the time when we’re mostly done with Throne of Eldraine, but don’t have another set to deal with. 

Our plan, though, is to prepare and stock up on Eldraine cards while they are cheap. Supply is at a maximum for the regular cards and the assorted Showcase cards, we’re not going to see a huge influx of Storybook cards out of nowhere.

There’s a case to be made to buy everything, but that’s for those who have deep pockets and unlimited organization skills. Instead, let’s focus on the cards that could gain quite nicely over the 18 months between now and when Eldraine rotates…

One thing to notice, that I think I’m going to have to research more carefully: The prices aren’t in line with what I expected. Generally speaking, the nonfoil special version (extended art or storybook) is a bit more expensive than the foil version of the regular card. That’s likely the new reality, at least until they change the distribution numbers on us. The prices have had a couple of months to settle out, so I believe these. 

To be fair, I’m not shocked that the prices line up, as having just one or two foils can cause your competitive deck to be called out for warped foils, but the Showcase nonfoils are an upgrade that’s inexpensive and less worrisome.

Realm-Cloaked Giant // Cast Off ($1 regular/$3.50 foil/$6.50 Storybook/$22 foil Storybook)

James and I talked about this card on the most recent MTG Fast Finance, and there’s two cases to be made for this card. First, it’s the only wrath effect that survives Standard rotation next October. We might get more of such effects, but I like this as a spec for just that reason. James pointed out that what we might get in Theros is an influx of playable Giants, which turns this card into an uneven effect. We already have Bonecrusher Giant, it wouldn’t take too many more Giants for me to be all over such an unfair deck.

Even better, it’s a mythic that can be had for a dollar. Yes, there’s a lot of copies out there, but buying for a dollar means that when you buylist them for $4 each in store credit, you just turned $25 into $100.

Bonecrusher Giant //Stomp ($2.50/$3/$4/$7)

As you can see, I’m on board with the ‘Giant deck is good!’ line of thinking. Really, this is an amazing card, as point removal and a very aggressively costed creature. Remember, it’s a 4/3 for 3 mana and its ability is to punish your opponent for spending a spell on it! For those stats, I’d expect a ‘can’t block’ or other drawback.

Murderous Rider // Swift End ($6/$7.50/$8/$15)

Removal is good. This is very good removal with wonderful upside. I’ve written about this before but would have felt silly leaving it out of this list. I especially like the foil Showcase versions for long-term growth, but the play I’m making is trading for every regular nonfoil I can find.

Gilded Goose ($6/$8/$14/$38)

The little goose that could is making waves in most formats. There’s a lot to be said in the older formats for a one-mana creature that comes with a free artifact. Paradoxical Outcome decks that use Urza for mana really love this too, as does a few other strategies. Really, we should have seen this coming. 

The price ramp is real on this, too. I think that the play is in the Showcase nonfoil, but we’re in a Standard that has no other mana accelerant on turn 1. If you’ve ever has the feeling of putting down your three-drop while your opponent simply played a tapped shockland on their first turn, you know the joy of being super far ahead. 

The really lovely thing about Goose as a spec is that no one plays less than four. Or they shouldn’t, at least. So when someone needs to pick these up, they will pick them up four at a time, making this a much more in-demand card when the deck shines. Get your regulars for Standard and fancier ones for long-term holds.

Robber of the Rich ($2.50/$5/$6/$25)

If you’re thinking that it’s a big jump from $6 to $30, you’d be right. TCG has about 15 copies under $25, but 30 more above that, so the price is a bit of a moving target. If you get to play one extra card off of this, it seems amazing, being that it’s likely gotten in for 4-6 points of damage. I’d love to see this in Burn mirrors, but that’s me being greedy.

Rankle, Master of Pranks ($8/$11/$17/$50)

Rankle’s big draw is as a top-end finisher in Pioneer’s version of Mono-Black. That deck lost out on Smuggler’s Copter but has kept on being very very good, and Rankle is a backbreaker as a top-end threat. There’s a few Standard decks that want to play the hasty Faerie, but the main draw is currently in the nonrotating format. 

Fabled Passage ($17/$24/$37/$98)

Fabled Passage is the fourth-most popular land in Standard. It’s ahead of Plains, Mountain, and every shockland. Decks generally aren’t playing the full four, but it’s in all of them for at least 2 copies. It’s also the only fetchland that’s Pioneer-legal, and that’s accounting for a big part of this price. 

I want to reiterate that this is the price when the card is at max supply. There’s a lot of room for it to grow, and if you play Standard at all, I strongly urge you to get your playset now, rather than waiting till it’s $25 or $30 for the nonfoil regular. Remember, this has TWO YEARS to get popular in Standard and it’s already popular in Pioneer.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Unlocked Pro Trader: What to Expect When You’re Expecting Theros

Readers!

I don’t have a ton of price data to look at from the original Theros and it’s possible that such data would be fairly worthless to look at. I’m not going to say mtg Finance was in its infancy, because it wasn’t, but mtg Finance hadn’t figured out who to listen to and people ran out and bought a ton of copies of Mana Bloom because a YouTuber said it was a slam dunk. Those were weird times. I still hadn’t figured out that I only wanted to trade EDH cards with EDH players and I was still binder grinding the GP and SCG Open circuit. We’ve learned a lot since then.

Since mtg Finance was so weird back then, looking at what spiked on the basis of old Theros isn’t that instructive in my view. Unless you want to make money on Didgeridoo again, I don’t know of any lessons from then we can apply to now.

So where does that leave us? Shortest article in history? As much as I’d love to pull the ripcord and say “until next time” I think I’ll give you some value because that’s what I do. Besides, Theros wasn’t the only time Enchantments did stuff.

Image result for estrid mtg

Enter Estrid.

Printed in Commander 2018, Estrid was part of a Bant “Enchantments matter” deck that made a lot of cards pop and some never returned to normal. While new Theros is going to give us Black and Red cards and combinations thereof, we can still look at what happened in 2018 and extrapolate a bit. Is anything that returned to normal due a second spike? Are any of the Legendary creatures going to be any good? Are there current decks about to get a boost? I don’t know, but we do know what Estrid did, so let’s look at what Estrid did.

Enchanted Evening got a huge boost from sub -$5 to the stratosphere as a result of Estrid. A combination of the hype dying down and the printing in Mystery Boosters has attenuated the price a bit. I don’t know that it’s a good buy at its current price since it could still drop some as more Mystery Boosters are opened. It’s metrics aren’t bad, though.

This is mostly in Tuvasa, Hanna and Estrid decks. A card that combos with this, however, didn’t get reprinted and may be due a second spike.

Cleansing Meditation with Enchanted Evening is a global wipe that people have known about for a long time but never really decided to play until Estrid. Meditation was gettable in bulk boxes for a long time and now that every copy is concentrated in the hands of dealers, and the buy price is very close to retail, this is poised to spike again imo. It will only take one commander that lets you play this combo and with Enchanted Evening being more affordable than it has been since 2017, I could see a run on Cleansing Meditation. I’m not buying these now, per se, but I am thinking about how quickly this could hit $5 again under the right conditions.

I don’t have much of an opinion about this card. I don’t like it personally. I will not the 25% price discrepency between TCG Player and Card Kingdom. Why is a market site with competition charging more for a reserved list card than a site where there is no competition? Doesn’t Card Kingdom always charge more? If I had to guess, I would say Card Kingdom is also more nimble when a card is tanking. TCG Player sellers race to the bottom but the market price is the last sold price and if the card isn’t selling well at its current price because that price is too much, it’s harder to move the market price whereas one person at CK can say “Let’s firesale these suckers” which is what I suspect happened here. The crypto money that was injected into Reserved List cards dried up and people realized the good times wouldn’t last forever. I don’t know if the buy-in price is great right now but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the fire sales reverse course at least.

Replenish, on the other hand, fell off a cliff but is already showing signs of life on the basis of Theros coming back. Rector is a slow, hard-to-use tutor but Replenishj dumps 30 Constellation triggers on the stack for 4 mana and is a force to be reckoned with. This may not hit $70 again, but I don’t think it’s going to plummet like it has been, and Card Kingdom doesn’t think so, either.

Get these while they’re still half price on TCG Player. If a card is $10 everywhere but TCG Player, it’s a $10 card that just doesn’t know it yet. TCG Player’s prices are usually the last to know because people leave the 1 copy with $3.99 shipping dregs for last and it looks like the card isn’t sold out when it actually is for all intents and purposes. This is a buy for under $7 right now.

Here’s another pretty significant price discrepancy. I suspect the TCG Player number is on its way up.

This peaked in 2019, well after Estrid’s printing, and I think it could flirt with $20 on CK again, soon. This is not even remotely fair or fun to play against as a Magic card and that’s worth noting.

Everything in the Estrid deck is here and while I think Red and Black getting left out is not ideal, Red and Black was more concerned with Minotaurs than Constellations last time around. We could also see renewed interest in Bruna decks as well as Uril, The Miststalker and maybe even Tuvasa on the basis of good new auras.

Thanks for reading, everyone. I’ll be keeping my finger on the pulse of Theros happenings and letting everyone know what matters to me. Until next time!

The Watchtower 12/16/19 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


We’ve got an entire seven days between us and the latest Pioneer ban announcement, which means we’ve got marginally better data about how the format looks without Once Upon a Time and Smuggler’s Copter. My initial impression, scrolling through a list of league 5-0s, is that despite what I imagine is Wizards’ desperation to not reveal it as such, Oko is setting the tone of the format. Gilded Goose and its keeper are doing a lot of work in Pioneer right now, which puts us all in a tough spot. Do we spec and buy cards presuming that this is how Pioneer will look for several months? Or is WotC going to do what needs to be done, performing a major reset in the process? This weighs heavily on me this week as I dive in.

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  ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2013. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


Hearts of Glass

The Secret Lairs are shipping, and there’s a surprise waiting in there!

Well, it’s not really a surprise anymore, and that’s a HUGE relief. 

Let’s talk about the stained glass planeswalkers, at least the ones we’re getting in the Secret Lair drop…

First of all, it appears that there’s only 15 of the 36 planeswalkers in this drop. An asymmetrical number, to be sure. I don’t think there’s mystical significance, and we are already able to get some prices, thanks to Wizards’ decision to print a bunch ahead of time and then print more to fill the demand. 

Blessedly, everyone who wanted one got one, and a max of ten. The different price points are interesting too–I can’t remember the last time the offered price on these varied, as they know that some of these sets are more valuable than others.

CardStained Glass Market PriceJP Alternate Art in Foil
Teferi, Time Raveler$92$94
Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God$72$80
Jace, Wielder of Mysteries$30$50
Ral, Storm Conduit$15$27
Tamiyo, Collector of Tales$14$45
Gideon Blackblade$14$41
Domri, Anarch of Bolas$13$19
The Wanderer$12$10
Ashiok, Dream Render$10$43
Angrath, Captain of Chaos$10$5
Sorin, Vengeful Bloodlord$9$40
Nahiri, Storm of Stone$8$9
Ajani, the Greathearted$7$13
Teyo, the Shieldmage$7$7
Huatli, the Sun’s Heart$5$8

I put the prices for the alternate-art planeswalkers up because it’s a handy comparison. How far will we go?

Clearly, we won’t go as far. The stained glass is only in the background, making the change minor and the price bump not as significant. I’m a bit surprised by this, because I don’t have any figures on Secret Lair sales, but I’d have to imagine that there’s a larger number of Lair sales than foil JP walkers.

It’s also worth mentioning that we haven’t reached saturation on the Secret Lairs yet either. Lots of copies are still being printed or shipped, and that’s a lot more copies of these stained glass cards coming into the market, lowering the price further.

So where will these settle? Well, that depends on their playability. 

Teferi is clearly going to be the winner in this regard, as he’s super-popular in Legacy and Pioneer, with a healthy dose of Modern and Vintage in there too. His star isn’t shining bright in Standard at the moment, which makes his price that much more likely to stick. If you haven’t embraced the warm, cozy feeling of having Teferi, Time Raveler in play during a Commander game, I strongly urge you to try it out. Feels pretty amazing, knowing you’ll get to do your thing.

Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God is going to fall a bit farther, I think, probably to the $30-$40 range. This is the FIFTH version of this card, as you can get it in original pack art, Mythic Edition, SDCC, Alternate Art, and now Stained Glass. For a mythic, that’s a ton of copies, and it allows people to pick the art they like best and roll with it. I don’t like this card long-term, precisely because of the glut of copies around. If it does go up, it’s going to be after a long, long, long incubation period, and I have other places to put my money.

Fun Fact: NBDG just broke the tie with Liliana Vess and Jace Beleren, as ‘card with most arts’ when all of them were stuck at four. (Do you know of others? Drop a comment or hit me up on Twitter @WordOfCommander)

I think Jace, Wielder of Mysteries can stay at $30, and given the win condition he represents in a lot of combo decks (especially in Commander, where it’s not always easy to make three players draw their decks) this price is likely to be sticky. Just enough people are playing copies and this is a nice upgrade over a regular copy without breaking the bank for the foil JP alternate. 

The rest of the prices, at $15 or less, I’d feel okay about picking up now if you want to collect the first half of the stained glass set. This is the time to buy, as people get their Lairs in the mail and open them, seeking to gain what value they can. Once these are opened, that’s it. 

As I wrote three weeks ago, collecting Magic cards and then hoping for a rise in value just because you picked up special versions is a losing play. You might want to get a stained-glass set of Teferis, and I’d support that because Teferi is a very good card in Eternal formats. The price won’t go up because it’s stained glass, it’ll go up because Teferi is really good.

Rest assured, if you’re collecting the set of Stained Glass (to match your WAR originals and your JP Alternate Art) you’ll have a chance to buy the rest of the planeswalkers that didn’t get the stained glass treatment this time. Maro alluded to it on his blog, and even if it takes a while, they will get to it. 

Might take a while, but I think they are on a shorter timeline than a project like Sword of X and Y completing the cycle. 

There’s some real winners in the 21 left to be printed. Nothing is going to match the prestige of a foil Amano Liliana, but this version of Narset, Parter of Veils will command quite a price, as will the Karn, the Great Creator. When we’ll get these cards is entirely subjective, but I’d be willing to bet that they will be released before War of the Spark rotates out of Standard this coming October of 2020. Just be patient!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

(Yeah, my title is a Blondie reference, and I’m fully aware that the song predates Magic and most of its players. )

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