Digging for Dollars, James Chillcott

Black Friday 2018 Magic the Gathering Sales

1 Comment

The 2018 holiday season is posting up to put a dent in our collective wallets, and alongside the inappropriately early Christmas music and the over hyped ginger spice lattes it’s time to take Black Friday head on. Go ahead and cuddle up by the fire with your holiday sweater on, half conscious from turkey coma chemicals, while you chuckle at the fools who don’t know how to use the Internet to buy things on sale.

For Magic: The Gathering speculators and players in need of some savings, the holiday season from mid-November to the new year is often a pretty great hunting ground, with plenty of sales going on and plenty of folks looking to turn cards into cash fast so they can finance presents and travel plans. For the most part you’ll likely want to save your speculation budget to focus on the couple of weeks at the end of December when some pretty significant sales can be had during late night Ebay hunts, but for now let’s see whether the online Magic vendors have any goodies worth considering this year.

Here’s a round up of the Black Friday sales going on at various online vendors that you might be interested in, with some highlights of the sweetest deals as of Thursday afternoon. We’ll update over the weekend if relevant sales appear so check back in:

Aaron Cain Deckboxes

ABUGames

  • 25% off all MTG single cards paid for with credit card, debit, paypal or crypto

CardKingdom

$10% in store credit back on all purchases made Nov 23rd to 26th (excludes purchases made with existing store credit)

ChannelFireball

Here’s the best of what CFB has to offer this year so far, with more deals coming Friday:

  • Save 11% today only on when you use code BLACKFRIDAY at checkout.
  • This insanity right here
  • Black Friday Crate (US only)
    • 10x recent Standard boosters
    • 3x Masters boosters
    • Core Set 2019 Fat Pack
    • CFB dice, score pad, sleeves, deck box

CoolStuffInc.

Black Friday Sale Pt 2 (Thursday deals):

  • Commander 2018 products at various discounts
  • D&D Waterdeep Dragon Heist Booster brick (8 boosters): $79.99
  • Unstable Booster Box: $119.99

FacetoFaceGames (Toronto, Canada Location)

  • Friday Door Crasher:$1 Battlebond booster packs (1 per customer)
  • D&D/Pathfinder minis: Buy 2 get 1 Free
  • 10% off all cards
  • 20% off showcase foils, board games, FFG products
  • 30% off the “hot deals” binder
  • 30% off troves of all kinds
  • 80% off select games
  • Note: prices are in Canadian dollars (roughly 30% off USD equivalent)

Miniature Market

StarCityGames

  • Alpha Llanowar Elves (PL): $206.24 (25% off)
  • Japanese Conspiracy Vedalken Orrery: $10.35 (50% off)
  • Recurring Nightmare (PL): $10.78 (50% off)
  • Stoneforge Mystic GP Promo: $18.74 (30% off)
  • Masters 25 Booster Box: $149.99
  • Guilds of Ravnica Fat Pack: $24.99
  • Mox Diamond (PL): $134.99
  • Gaea’s Cradle (PL): $262.49 (25% off)
  • Ultimate Guard Twin Flip’n’Tray 200+: $22.49 (25% off)

TCGPlayer.com

15% kickback on all MTG singles (best deal I’ve seen on this site ever)

TrollandToad.com

  • Flooded Strand National Foil Promo: $64.99
  • Liliana of the Veil (INN): $59.99
  • Lion’s Eye Diamond: $159.99
  • Magic Game Night Box Set: $22.95
  • Thoughtseize (THS): $7.99
  • Wasteland (TMP): $24.99

WizardTower.com (Canada)

  • Min 20% off everything in the store
  • Prices in Canadian dollars (roughly 30% less than USD equivalent)

So that’s that. If you’d like to share a really sweet deal you found online, or you’re a store we haven’t added to the list yet, hit us up in the comments below!

Hot Spec, James Chillcott, MTG Growth Stocks, What We're Buying

Ultimate Masters Absentees: Targeting Cards That Dodged a Reprint

3 Comments

With the full spoiler for Ultimate Masters now revealed we’ve got everything we need to run a reality check on the estimated value of the booster boxes and to plan out our next few moves. Given how much of a profit seeking dogpile this very sexy set is likely to be over the next few months, it behooves us to consider the cards that didn’t make the set and looks for opportunities to get ahead on some cards that are headed for a supply crunch.

Here are a few of the better options I’ve been looking at this week:

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Take care, and keep an eye out for my forthcoming article on the EV of Ultimate Masters.

James Chillcott (@mtgcritic) is an entrepreneur, investor, designer, collector, gamer and adventurer. Between dolling out good advice and humble bragging on Twitter he can be found playing with his daughter Alara, running a couple of web companies and eating cookies.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Crunch Time

3 Comments

Hello, Readers.

With Ultimate Masters mostly spoiled, people are waiting patiently to see on which cards they’re about to get their pants pulled down (R.I.P. Foil Thespians’ Stage) and which cards could see a surge in price as a result of not being printed. People tend to wait until the set is fully spoiled to make their buys on stuff that’s not in the set but the thing is, we don’t HAVE to wait on everything.

In Which I Introduce a Concept that is Not New

Magic cards are numbered.

Fascinating

Don’t interrupt me. Anyway, Magic cards are numbered. The bottom of the card has two numbers, one is the total cards in the set and the other is the number that card is in the order. Ultimate Masters has 254 cards, the first of which is All is Dust and the 254th of which is Urborg, Tomb Of Yawgmoth. How do we know this? Well, we’ve seen pictures of both of those cards and the number on All is Dust is 1/254 and the number on Urborg is 254/254/. This isn’t a new concept to most of you.

Another thing we know is that the cards are ordered alphabetically, subsected into colors which go Colorless, WUBRG, Gold, Lands. Fauna Shaman is before Snapcaster Mage alphabetically but its number in the set will be higher than Snapcaster Mage’s because Green comes after Blue. Don’t believe me? We can test this – Fauna Shaman is 164 and Snapcaster Mage is 71. Bam. Science.

What can this information tell us? Well, it can’t tell us what’s in the set as often as it can tell us what isn’t in the set, but the good news there is what isn’t in the set is more valuable to know right now than what is. If you get something in the set confirmed, you learn that you should have sold already because the price will tank. But if you learn something that’s ruled out, you can buy before the price goes up. Let’s see if we can figure out some sweet EDH staples that are ruled out.

First up, I pulled up the list of the Top 100 EDH cards in terms of deck inclusion for each color. Not all of them are money because, not surprisingly, a lot of them aren’t rare. However, there are some expensive ones that could go up if they’re not reprinted. I started with colorless/artifacts first. In the set, Eldrazi are up first in the colorless section and artifacts are later so we’re looking at two different spots on the number crunch.

Unfortunately, at the time I wrote this, we didn’t know many artifacts. Card #2 in the set can only be 7 different cards between All is Dust and Eldrazi Conscription and none of them really matter. In the artifacts section, though, we don’t know much.

Colorless/Artifacts

225 Fire//Ice

226 Probably Unknown Artifact

227 Engineered Explosives

228 Unknown Artifact

229 Mana Vault

230 Unknown Artifact

231 Unknown Artifact

232 Phyrexian Altar

233 Platinum Emperion

234 Unknown Artifact

There isn’t much we can come up with, here. I can’t rule out Paradox Engine, Urza’s Incubator, Mox Opal, Hangarback Walker, Sword of anything, Gauntlets of Power, Caged Sun, Darksteel Forge… I feel like this section is a waste of time. Let’s move on to another color.

White

8-10 Unknown White Cards

11 Containment Priest

12-13 Unknown White Cards

14 Daybreak Coronet

15-18 Unknown White Cards

19 Heliod’s Pilgrim

20-24 Unknown White Cards

25 Martyr of Sands

26-29 Unknown White Card

30 Resurrection

31 Reveillark

32-33 Unknown White Card

34 Runed Halo

35 Sigil of the New Dawn

36-37 Unknown White Cards

38 Sublime Archangel

39 Unknown White Card

40 Tethmos High Priest

41 Wall of Reverence

42-45 Unknown White and/or Blue Cards

White has a few big gaps but there are a few cards we can rule out.

Thalia, both Guardian of Thraben and Heretic Cathar can’t be between 40 and 41.

That’s basically it for now. We can’t rule out anything we’d like to – Teferi’s Protection, Worship, Act of Authority, Council’s Judment, any Elspeth, you name it, basically.

Blue

42-45 Unknown White /Blue Cards

46 Back to Basics (!)

47 Circular Logic

48-50 Unknown Blue Cards

51 Disrupting Shoal

52-54 Unknown Blue Cards

55 Foil

56 Unknown Blue Card

57 Frantic Search

58 Glen Elendra Archmage

59-60 Unknown Blue Cards

61 Laboratory Maniac

62 Living Lore

63 Magus of the Bazaar

64-67 Unknown Blue Cards

68 Rune Snag

69-70 Unknown Blue Cards

71 Snapcaster Mage

72-75 Unknown Blue Cards

76 Talrand

77 Temporal Manipulation

78 Unknown Blue Card

79 Treasure Cruise

80 Unknown Blue Card

81 Visions of Beyond

82-84 Unknown Blue/Black Cards

Leyline of Anticipation can’t be between Laboratory Maniac and Magus of the Bazaar, and given the tendency for the set to include cycles, I think that could rule out Leyline of the Void and Leyline of Sanctity, but I’m not betting money on it.

Tamiyo, Moon Sage can’t be between Talrand and Temporal Manipulation.

Bribery can’t be between Back to Basics and Circular Logic.

Time Warp isn’t ruled out per se, but with Temporal Manipulation in the set, it’s unlikely card 78 is Time Warp. I feel the same way about Time Stretch, which needs a reprint badly.

Teferi, Temporal Archmage can’t be between Talrand and Temporal Manipulation.

Baral, Chief of Compliance can’t be between Back to Basics and Circular Logic.

There are a lot of cards we can’t rule out, but there is a lot of value in the ones we can. Blue was a treasure trove of crunched-out cards.

Black

82-84 Unknown Blue/Black Cards

85 Bitterblossom

86-88 Unknown Black Cards

89 Chainer’s Edict

90-92 Unknown Black Cards

93 Demonic Tutor

94 Entomb

95-98 Unknown Black Cards

99 Goryo’s Vengeance

100-101 Unknown Black Cards

102 Gurmag Angler

103 Unknown Black Card

104 Liliana of the Veil

105 Unknown Black Card

106 Mikaeus, the Unhallowed

107-109 Unknown Black Cards

110  Reanimate

111 Unknown Black Card

112 Shirei, Shizo’s Caretaker

113 Unknown Black Card

114 Slum Reaper

115 Unknown Black Card

116 Spoils of the Vault

117 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

118-123 Unknown Black/Red Cards

Liliana of the Veil all but rules out Liliana, Heretical Healer, which is creeping up in value.

Drana, Liberator of Malkir can’t be between Demonic Tutor and Entomb,

We can’t crunch much out of Black, but that’s fine since Black historically doesn’t have expensive EDH cards.

Red

118-123 Unknown Black/Red Cards

124 Balefire Dragon

125-127 Unknown Red Cards

128 Faithless Looting

129 Fiery Temper

130 Firewing Phoenix

131 Unknown Red Card

132 Gamble

133-135 Unknown Red Cards

136 Lava Spike

137 Unknown Red Card

138 Magmaw

139-143 Unknown Red Cards

144 Reckless Wurm

145 Unknown Red Card

146 Seismic Assault

147-149 Unknown Red Cards

150 Squee, Goblin Nabob

151 Unknown Red Card

152 Through the Breach

153 Unknown Red Card

154 Vexing Devil

155-156 Unknown Red/Green Cards

Fiery Confluence can’t be between Faithless Looting and Fiery Temper.

There isn’t much else, here. We can’t rule out anything we want to – Repercussion, Price of Glory, Mana Echoes, Wrath of Goad, Insurrection, Purphoros – the list is long. The important thing is Fiery Confluence is safe for a bit, goes in Legacy where it’s bought 4 copies at a time and is in that Kalemne deck with a bunch of other $20 cards.

Green

155-156 Unknown Red/Green Cards

157 Become Immense

158-162 Unknown Green Card

163 Eternal Witness

164 Fauna Shaman

165 Fecundity

166 Unknown Green Card

167 Golgari Grave-Troll

168 Unknown Green Card

169 Hero of Leina Tower

170-171 Unknown Green Cards

172 Life From The Loam

173 Miming Slime

174 Noble Hierarch

175 Nourishing Shoal

176 Pattern of Rebirth

177-183 Unknown Green Cards

184 Spider Umbra

185-186 Unknown Green Cards

187 Tarmogoyf

188 Travel Preparations

189 Vengevine

190-193 Unknown Green Cards

194 Wild Mongrel

195 Woodfall Primus

196-198 Unknown Green/Gold Cards

Mana Reflection can’t be between Life from the Loam and Miming Slime. That’s a pretty significant one. I would say that all but rules out Wound Reflection, also. It doesn’t exactly rule it out, but with the tendency toward cycles, I am betting my own personal money on it. I think Mana Reflection not being in the set is a gigantic punt and I also think they would have to know that so I could see a creative way to print Reflection in the next 12 months, so get in and get out. They seem too powerful for an EDH precon deck (Mana and Wound do, not so much the other 3 which are dirt cheap, anyway) so who knows what they’ll do? They surprised and delighted me with the Ixalan board game, the Guild Kits and other ways to reprint cards that need it.

Exploration can’t be between Eternal Witness and Fauna Shaman, and that’s very significant as well. Exploration seems to be trading printings off with Burgeoning, but Exploration seems like it’s too good for a set like Conspiracy/Battlebond (but so did Doubling Season) so we’ll see whether we have more than 6 months of growth on that.

Tooth and Nail can’t be between Tarmogoyf and Travel Preparations. Tempt With Discovery is in that same slot. Triumph of the Hordes is in the same 3 card block and is ruled out as well. Guess what else? Tireless Tracker. Guess what else? Titania, Protector of Argoth. Traverse the Outlands. Three Visits.

Mirri’s Guile can’t be between Miming Slime and Noble Hierarch and neither can’t Nature’s Will.

Gold

199 Gaddock Teeg

200-201 Unknown Gold Cards

202 Leovold

203 Lord of Extinction

204 Maelstrom Pulse

205 Unknown Gold Card

206 Sigarda, Host of Herons

207 Sovereigns of Lost Alara

208-212 Unknown Gold Cards

213 Dimir Guildmage

214 Unknown Gold Card

215 Fulminator Mage

216 Kitchen Finks

217-222 Unknown Gold Cards

223 Slippery Bogle

224 Unknown Gold Card

225 Fire//Ice

There isn’t much crunched out here, unfortunately.

Maelstrom Nexus can’t be between Lord of Extinction and Maelstrom Pulse, same with Maelstrom Archangel. I’m not excited.

236 Ancient Tomb

237 Cavern of Souls

238 Celestial Colonnade

239 Creeping Tar Pit

240 Unknown Land Card

241 Dark Depths

242 Unknown Land Card

243 Flagstone of Trokair

244 Karakas

245 Lavaclaw Reaches

246-247 Unknown Land Cards

248 Phyrexian Tower

249 Raging Ravine

250 Unknown Land Card

251 Stirring Wildwood

252-253 Unknown Land Cards

254 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth.

 

A few unexciting cards like Kor Haven are ruled out but for the most part, the value here is in the large number of $10+ blue and green EDH staples that are crunched out. If you’re looking to buy cards bound to go up now that they dodged the reprinter’s metaphorical axe, those are your best bets. I really like Mana Reflection, Wound Reflection, Bribery and Exploration.

That does it for me. We’ll have a full spoiler next week and we can dig down some more. Until then!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 11/19/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

1 Comment

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

Two Grand Prixs hit the books this weekend, with a hometown hero taking one down, but there’s nothing there for us. Down under was sealed, so that’s really dead, and even the Standard one didn’t present anything new in the wake of the Pro Tour. While it appears to be a fun Standard format, I simply don’t think there’s any fertile soil there any longer. With no shakeups on the horizon until the next set in February, there’s no reason to think we’ll see any cards meaningfully change in value.

At the same time, the markets have been awfully quiet lately. We had possibly our fastest @mtgfastfinance ever last week, as there simply wasn’t much going on. Ultimate Masters spoilers are hitting today and tomorrow, with the full list due Wednesday, so we’ll have some brief excitement this week, but after that, it’s going to be all quiet on the western front until January most likely.

The Mirari Conjecture (Foil)

 

Price Today: $1.75
Possible Price: $9

I’m starting this week off with a “feels good” pick. Mirari Conjecture feels good. It’s a cool card. It draws you two cards over two turns, and then sets you up for a bonkers third turn, especially in the mid to late game, where you have a pile of mana.

We haven’t seen it invade EDH yet, though there’s precedent. Take a gander at the top played blue cards on EDHREC and you’ll see that the seventh most popular blue creature is Archaeomancer, a four mana 1/2 that returns an instant or sorcery from the graveyard to your hand. He’s a well known face to anyone that’s been playing awhile. Mirari Conjecture basically does his job twice, then gives you that big payoff on turn three.

I’m not anticipating that Conjecture is going to end up a top ten blue card or anything. It’s a little too narrow, and a little too tough to abuse to get that much out of it. However, it’s certainly able to become a staple. I would imagine someone only has to get this to trigger on the third step once to become a convert. Once we start seeing enough ofo that, those $1.75 foils are going to begin disappearing. Supply is decent, as it’s an in-print Standard rare, but it’s not deep deep. It’s reasonable. Comfortable. Not excessive. Grab a copy of yourself now, and as you hit Black Friday sales this week, keep this one in mind as you’re looking for stuff to throw in the cart at a discount.

Rune-Scarred Demon (Foil)

 

Price Today: $3.75
Possible Price: $12

Occasionally I find a card that makes me do a double take. How is this card so affordable? It’s happened to me many times over the years. A popular card that should have very limited supply is inexplicably bountiful and cheap. I stare at it, wondering if I’m missing something, and don’t bother to buy any, because the supply is too great to bother right now. Sometimes I’ll bump into the same card multiple times over a span of months, each time having the same reaction. Eventually, I find myself looking at it with a price tag several times greater than it has been, and I kick myself for not having bought them. Happens without fail. I’m kind of having that now, with Rune-Scarred Demon.

Rune-Scarred Demon is in 16,000 EDH decks. More than 1 in 10 decks that made black mana play Demon. It’s not hard to imagine why, either. The number one most popular black card in the format is Demonic Tutor. Do you know what Demon does when he enters the battlefield? He Demonic Tutors. And he’s a 6/6. Show up, search for a card, punch people in the face. All good stuff. Especially if you’ve got any blinking going on, then you’re just a jerk.

Still, you can find several foils from both Magic 2012, his original foil printing, and Iconic Masters, his only other foil printing, under $4. And plenty below $6. How? Why? A card this popular should be way harder to find. I could understand if the M12 copies were $17 and the IMA ones were $4, sure. But the M12 ones too? Huh?

There’s nothing deep or clever about this. I look at Demon, and I can’t figure out why it isn’t more expensive. It’s got low supply, it’s quite popular, and it’s flexible. Why aren’t more people buying this card? Whatever. We should buy it, and then wait. Eventually it will catch up. They always do.

Worn Powerstone (Foil)

 

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $12

There are a lot of mana rocks in EDH, some better than others. Like Sol Ring. Mana Crypt is quite good. Mana Vault is solid too, though more “fair.” You’ve got the colorless ones too, like Chromatic Lantern, which don’t produce in volume, but produce in quality. Really though, once you get past the first two or three, you start making choices. What fits my build the best? If you want raw efficiency, there isn’t much better than Worn Powerstone.

Three on the way in and tapping for two is just about the best it gets after Sol Ring. Sure, the “enters tapped” part sucks, no arguing there. It’s not all that bad though. On turn three you probably weren’t using that two colorless mana anyways, so if you’re playing this on curve, it barely matters. And if you’ve got untap mechanics in your deck – e.g. Paradox Engine – it doesn’t even matter.

I don’t need to sell you on Powerstone though. It’s in 25,000 decks. It’s like, the 50th? Most popular card in EDH overall, depending on what metric you use. People play it. Heck, look at the reprint list. It’s been printed nine times. Nine is a lot of times. Five of the places it was reprinted have the word “Commander” in them. It’s popular in EDH, guys.

And it just so happens that out of all nine prints, only a single one is available in foil. Eternal Masters is the only place you can get a foil Worn Powerstone. It’s a bit surprising, but really, if they’re printing it every single year in the Commander precons, then they’re not going to feel the need to find space for it elsewhere. And then you end up with a very popular card only having one foil printing.

Supply is solid right now for sure. Plenty available around $4. But if this trend continues, with only Commander reprints, there’s going to be a lot fewer of these in the future than there are today, and then prices in the $10 to $15 range are going to start looking quite real.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


[/hide]

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY