Magic 25: Mythic & Rare Possibilities

February 25, 2018 James Chillcott 4 Comments

It’s hard to believe that I’ve been playing Magic: The Gathering for twenty five years. I still remember my university girlfriend coming home with a small pile of starter decks and the rabbit hole we ended up diving down for the next few months. And while my interest in the game has ebbed and flowed with the years, I’m happy to find myself here on the cusp of this major milestone fully invested in the game we all know and love.

Now coming off the confusing and disappointing reception of the Iconic Masters set just a few months ago, it would seem that WoTC are on the hot seat to deliver an outstanding set as the flagship product for their 25th anniversary.

From a financial perspective it is a useful exercise to try to forecast which cards might be included in this set so that you can decide what you might need to do about it.

Prior Lessons

In terms of the Expected Value of this set, I am using my modeling for Modern Masters 2017 (and to a lesser extent other Masters sets), as I believe it is likely to be the closest in terms of overall value and composition to M25. My previous modeling tracked the value of the $1+ rares and mythics in MM17 set a month or so before the set was released and for several months thereafter. To predict what may happen with the value of cards included in M25, let’s see what happened with MM17.

In early 2017, the fifteen mythics from MM17 had a market value total of around $470 USD, with an average price tag of $30 USD. By late April of 2017, the value of those cards had dropped to just $280, for a localized loss of about 40%. Fast forward to today, and those same mythics are now back up to $390 or so. This is an interesting figure, because while it still represents a drop of 17% from pre-reprint value, it also represents a gain of about 40% from the post-reprint lows a few months after the set dropped.

What does this tell us? Well, for one, it probably didn’t make sense to sell mythics into the reprint, especially if you needed the cards in question in decks. If you had sold a basket of mythics at $470,(and assuming you could have sold all of them quickly enough) you would have netted about 82% of that after fees and shipping, so perhaps $385, which is just about where your cards would be back up to right now, a year later. Now, if you were really on the ball, which would be tough to pull off practically speaking, you could in theory have taken that $385 and bought the same basket three months later at $280, and netted yourself an extra $100 in value or so. That’s a spare Liliana of the Veil if you’re really hustling, but for many players holding through the storm would have been a more reasonable result.

That being said, buying key cards at the bottom was a strong move in isolation, since 14 of 15 mythics have appreciated at least 10% from that point, with eight of those cards appreciating as much as 75% (LOTV, Cavern of Souls, Snapcaster Mage, Craterhoof Behemoth, Temporal Mastery, Olivia Voldaren, Past in Flames). That’s a pretty good result if you can find the bottom this time around and things play out similarly.

Now what about the rares from Modern Masters 2017?

Well, the if we look at the 25 most pricey rares from the set (of 54), we note that the pre-reprint cost of that basket of cards was close to $596, or an average of about $24. By April of 2017, that same basket had declined by a whopping 57%, down to just $256. As of today, that same basket is now worth close to $340. That’s still a 43% decline from pre-reprint price, but a 33% gain from the lows.

This is a pretty similar result as with the mythics, but the higher volume of the rare reprints in the market results in a harder crash that is likely worth getting out in front of for cards with soft demand profiles, as well as a softer recovery than with the mythics.

Sum total, the thesis is pretty clear: look for the lows and acquire the cards with the highest demand, preferably mythics, to ride the recovery over 6-18 months. It is also worth noting that many of the cards in question may have further gains still ahead of them since most cards get a few years between reprints these days and we’re still at the front end of that cycle for most cards in MM17.

Fresh Considerations

There are also a couple of additional factors worth considering. On the one hand, the sweet watermarks they are adding to the cards to signify their set of origin in M25 are likely to be collector bait, especially with foils. On the other hand, if the card quality is similar to the weak card stock of Iconic Masters and the Ixalan sets, that may scare some players off the newer versions of the cards. In cases where the older printings are injured by the reprints in equal measure, this may mean that targeting the older printings is the right move from a speculation perspective. Another factor may be whether WoTC embraced nostalgia to the fullest and used original art for certain cards vs. producing new art in the modern Magic art style. I suspect the latter but we’ll see shortly.

So far, boxes of M25 have sold as low as $155, and are currently available around $180. This represents a 25% discount under MSRP, but we won’t have a good sense of the value until we see how many of the mythics end up looking resilient to their reprint given enough time. It’s also worth noting that this set is being printed in Japanese (as well as Simplified Chinese) but that the distribution of the foreign versions will be largely limited to Japan and China. As such, Japanese boxes may end up as solid specs if you can get a line on them at a solid price. If you can’t pin down a box, perhaps such smart shopping on the Japanese vendor sites once we hit peak supply will do right by your collection.

Finally, remember that anticipated cards that don’t show up here are likely safe from reprint for a while based on what we know about the product schedule for this year. As such, expect some spikes in the next few weeks, especially on key Modern cards that dodge a reprint.

Prediction Logic

So how does one go about predicting what will be included in M25?

Well, so far we know that the set is about the same size as other Masters sets, at 249 cards, and we can reasonably assume that the set will include somewhere close to 15 mythics and 54 rares.

We also know that the Estimated Value of the set is likely to be tightly modeled by WoTC against the MSRP of $240 USD, and will likely shape up similarly to Iconic Masters or MM17, perhaps with a little extra juice (say 10-15%) vs. those sets. This would lead me to believe that the total value of the mythics will be somewhere between $450 and $600, and that the value of the top half of the rares will be between $550 and $650, with the rest being bulk rares under $1.

So far we aren’t sure to what extent the set is built around specific themes, color pairings or mechanics. All we really know about the set composition is that it is designed to offer the nostalgic kick we were all expecting in Iconic Masters, as well as at least one card from every black bordered set in Magic’s history. That leaves us with a lot of ground to cover, but it also means that, for mythics especially, the presence of a mythic from a specific set likely means that it will be the only one, due to overall space constraints.

The Mythics

First off, let’s cover the cards we already know are included.

So right off the bat, that means that mythics from Worldwake and New Phyrexia are taken care of, and almost certainly means that Jace, the Mind Sculptor is the only Jace we’ll see in this set. Asuza is at rare.

In trying to round out the list, I tried to pull together a set of cards that were a) in need of reprint, b) make sense in the EV calculations for the set and c) fulfill the nostalgia/MTG history requirements.

I have further assumed a distribution of 2 slots to artifacts and colorless cards, 2 each for the five colors, 2 gold cards and either a land slot or an extra gold or artifact/colorless card.

Without further ado, here are my picks for the thirteen additional mythics most at risk of reprint in Magic: 25.

COLORLESS/ARTIFACTS
We already saw some cool art for one of the artifact creatures in the set on the revealed booster packaging, and from the spiky armor it seems likely that the card in question is either Platinum Emperion or Blightsteel Colossus. Other options include something from Affinity, but my best guess is Emperion. If we get another Artifact card at Mythic, I’m thinking it will either be the most busted Equipment of all time in Umezawa’s Jitte or perhaps Batterskull, especially if Stoneforge Mystic makes it into the set. Ugin, the Spirit Dragon could also occupy one of these slots, as iconic Planeswalkers have a role to play here. Mox Opal needs a reprint, but it may not be an easy fit in this set and an equipment option seem a better fit to represent that aspect of the game. Finally, Emerakul, the Aeons Torn is about as iconic as it gets, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see her show up again now.

WHITE
As the poster child for Theros block, Elspeth, Sun’s Champion is a strong planeswalker that most players will be happy to own a copy of, leaving the Theros Gods to show up as a larger cycle down the road where the theme of the set allows. Land Tax hasn’t seen a reprint since 4th Edition, isn’t on the Reserved List and fits the bill on the nostalgia front, so it seems like a solid pick for the other white slot as a super powerful card that many players wouldn’t necessarily already own a copy of and services the EDH market. If it’s not these two, other options include Baneslayer Angel, Stoneforge Mystic or Ravages of War.

GREEN
There aren’t a lot of obvious options for the green mythic slots here. My gut says we’ll end up with some combination of a nostalgia/story card and a Modern staple, hence my timid tabling of something like Vengevine + Garruk, Wildspeaker as cards that could use the reprint and fit into the EV modeling. Alternatives might include cards such as Food Chain or Berserk, but the former seems better suited for an Eternal themed set down the road, and latter was just in Conspiracy and doesn’t need the reprint despite qualifying on nostalgia. Garruk could just as easily be a different version or a Nissa.

BLUE
With Jace already a lock, it’s tough to figure that the second slot is also a big money card, but I can’t shake the feeling that the 25th anniversary set is the perfect place to put the most iconic counterspell up beside the most important iconic planeswalker and just own the fact that blue is the best color in the game. Another option is for True-Name Nemesis to show up here as a cheaper mythic that folks are still going to be pleased to open.

RED
Red is a pretty tough slot to fill at mythic generally speaking and the default here is some combination of a planeswalker and a dragon. Koth of the Hammer hasn’t seen a reprint yet outside a duel deck and anchors a low value slot pretty easily here. Alternately, we could get a Chandra, but I had trouble finding one that made sense here. I would expect that we’ll get Shivan Dragon at rare, so perhaps this slot could go in a different direction, but if I had to pick a mythic dragon that hasn’t been reprinted yet, Scourge of the Throne would be a solid candidate from Conspiracy. Through the Breach certainly needs a reprint, but could show up at rare or not at all. Finally, Imperial Recruiter has been floated for this slot, but I’d be surprised to see them throw such a valuable card in here. Recruiter is an odd duck, as it’s value is almost certainly more about supply than demand, but at $240 retail, even if it fell off 70% for the new version, we’re still talking about a $72 mythic that not many people need or want. It does tick the P3K box though, so we’ll see.

BLACK
Since we know we are already getting Phyrexian Obliterator, we likely just have one slot to fill. My guess is Demonic Tutor gets the nod here, as an iconic tutor effect from the early days of the game that has only seen a reprint in a Duel Deck in the modern era. Alternatively, we could see Imperial Seal here, but at $440+ for the original it runs the same risk of destabilizing the set EV unless it crashes utterly on inclusion. A Liliana version is also an option.

MULTI-COLOR
Assuming that the gold cards earn a couple of slots here, options include a multi-color planeswalker or perhaps a key Legendary card. Some version of Nicol Bolas seems likely at either Mythic or Rare given that he is positioned as the key villain in the narrative at present, so we could end up with Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker in this slot or perhaps the original Nicol Bolas at rare. As for legends in need of a reprint, Leovold, Emissary of Trest could end up representing for Conspiracy 2 but their are a plethora of potential alternatives.

LANDS
Rishadan Port is one of the last remaining $100+ cards not on the Reserved List that has never seen a reprint, but it’s relatively modest demand profile leads me to believe that it is going to get hammered like Karakas was should it see a reprint. As such I’m glad to not be holding any of these. It’s also possible that we don’t get a land slot at all at mythic.

Here are the current price tags for these cards, in order of value:

This set of fifteen mythics would give us a grand total of $553, which is about 17% higher than the value of the MM17 mythics heading into spoilers. If they deliberately juiced M25, this is viable. If not, one or two cards over $30 likely need to be swapped for something closer to $10.

In this list, I would be comfortable continuing to hold Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Force of Will, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or Demonic Tutor as cards that are likely to be resistant to permanent value loss. The rest of the mythics would face relatively shallow demand.

The Rares

There are a LOT of ways that the rares can play out in this set, with literally hundreds of viable options on the table. That being the case, we are likely better off just making a list of cards in need of reprint and figuring out whether they are likely to rebound once they crash.

Let’s see what we’re dealing with this time around:

There are several cards on this list that are both important within the history of the game and and are also in need of a reprint. Crucible of Worlds was a fan generated card, and is getting pricey, so I could easily see that here. Dark Confidant, Scapeshift, Through the Breach, Chalice of the Void, Engineered Explosives, Bitterblossom, Meddling Mage, Gaddock Teeg, Collected Company, Kolaghan’s Command, Goryo’s Vengeance, Scapeshift and Glen Elendra Archmage all have a role to play and I would expect at least half of those cards to see inclusion.

Reprints of Chalice, Collected Company, Dark Confidant, Collective Brutality, Thalia and Kolaghan’s Command are likely to slow their growth for a while, and the others have more modest demand overall.

I think we’ll see Birds of Paradise at rare rather than seeing Noble Hierarch again given the all time iconic nature of the card.

My guess for a potential rare land cycle is the Worldwake creature lands, since Celestial Colonnade and Creeping Tar Pit need a reprint and the rest of the cycle is cheap enough to prevent their inclusion from taking up too much EV. Alternatives include the filter lands, the SOM fast lands or even pain lands. Shocks and fetches feel marked for future handling elsewhere since we seem to be returning to Ravnica in the fall and a Modern focused Masters set is likely inevitable in 2019, whether or not they theme it that way.

Finally at common or uncommon I would expect to see Swords to Plowshares, Terror, Lightning Bolt, Giant Growth, Counterspell and a pile of other nostalgia laden minor inclusions.

Stay tuned this week as the spoilers are unveiled, cutting out options and activating fresh specs. Good luck!

Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Rivals of Ixalan Pickups

February 23, 2018 Cliff Daigle

Believe it or not, it’s time for another preview season.

Masters 25 lands in about four weeks, and if that seems like not a lot of time since Rivals of Ixalan was first introduced, you’d be right! We’re at a point where about every two months, there’s a new group of cards for us to deal with and decide on, and I haven’t yet decided if that’s a good thing.

I first got into this game heavily in 1995, and the summer of that year had three major releases in a four-month span: Fourth Edition, Ice Age, and then Chronicles. Needless to say, I didn’t have much spare money that summer.

I used to think we would never return to that point…but really, we aren’t far off. We got Rivals on January 13, Masters 25 prereleases are March 16, Dominaria is April 21, and Core Set 2019 is July 7. That’s four in six months, and the first three are in a four-month span. We are back! RIP wallet.

All of this is a roundabout way of saying that the turnover, the churn of new cards and product, is very real. We’re about done drafting the Rivals/Rivals/Ixalan format, and so it’s time to think about the Rivals of Ixalan cards that are at max supply, and therefore lowest price.

Dire Fleet Daredevil ($4 nonfoil/$12 foil)

I like this card for a lot of reasons. Being able to raid your opponents’ graveyards is an amazing trick, and while Snapcaster is a more reliable play, this Pirate is seeing a bit of Modern play, and it’s a useful card against Blue Commander decks that are going to abuse their graveyard. The foil multiplier is exactly where you’d expect it to be, so the casual demand isn’t there…yet.

All of today’s picks are small-set cards, meaning that the supply is impacted noticeably, and with the added pressure that is Masters 25. We should be opening Rivals until April, but we are going to lose a few weeks of these cards being added to the worldwide supply.

What I really love about this card is how it’s popping up as a fun-of in Vintage lists, since being able to play the other player’s Time Walk and Ancestral Recall is just the nicest spice you ever sampled.

This is unlikely to see play as a four-of in any format, it’s just too inconsistent. But a card making waves across formats and with excellent casual potential…I want a couple copies on hand. It’s not big in EDHREC yet, only 96 decks, but the plethora of great spells makes me want to snag foils for relatively low cost.

Blood Sun ($4/$20)

First off, that’s a heavy foil multiplier, especially for a card not heavy on Commander play. In fact, this isn’t seeing a lot of play in many formats, though Legacy is trying its hardest to break the card by using two-mana lands to cheat it out as early as possible.

This card had a tremendous amount of hype, and caused some other cards to jump very high very quickly, but hasn’t made much impact yet.

I strongly suspect that people who bought this for absurdly high preorder prices are refusing to cut their losses and let go, especially on foils. I feel like the price is low for the power that the card offers, so I’m on board for a few copies and holding patiently. This is probably never going to be a standard player, though the prevalence of utility lands in the current format does make it a tempting sideboard option.

Warkite Marauder ($2/$6)

If it goes further down, I’ll get more copies.

Yes, it’s an aggressive blue card. This is rarely a dominant archetype, but every time I look at the Favorable Winds lists floating around, this is the one that stands out to me. It’s quite powerful, difficult to block, cheap to play, and the best news is that when you want this cart, you’re in for the full four copies. No one is going to play two or three of this, and so when a deck does well, you’ll see the available copes get snagged quite quickly.

Ravenous Chupacabra ($1.50/$7.50)

I know, I know. It’s an uncommon. Hear me out, though. It’s seeing play across a lot of archetypes, just for the sheer value it represents. It’s a fantastic creature even in control decks, because it gets value and then trades or chump blocks. It’s mostly seeing play as two or three copies, which makes sense. We have Vraska’s Contempt at the same mana cost, eclipsing what it’s capable of.

It’s a $1.50 uncommon while the set is still being opened. It’s going to be in Standard for another 18 months, and that’s a long time for this to see a lot of play. I’m not going to be shocked when this is a $3 card, and I won’t hesitate to buy these at $1 right now and trade them away at $3 in a few months.

One thing to add here: this foil price might be confusing you, but you’re underestimating the number of people who play Commander more casually. If you want this effect, you’re spoiled for choices if you poke through Magic’s history. This is the cheapest ‘destroy target creature’ effect, one with no drawbacks, and what I think is happening is that newer players are just not letting the foils get into circulation. Heck, there’s only ~330 total copies on TCG right now, combining foils and nonfoils. That’s less than a lot of the rares, and for comparisons’ sake, there’s 239 listed copies of Azor, the Lawbringer on the site.

Journey to Eternity ($2.50/$10)

I sort of wish there was a promo version of this too, because this is a super-solid pick for long-term casual growth. There isn’t an EDH deck that doesn’t want this effect, and enabling it isn’t hard. You have to dodge the exile effects, or stuff in response, but you’re going to see a lot of Meren decks go turn two Sakura-Tribe Elder, turn-three this, and then that’s all she wrote.

Barring FTV: Ixalan’s Secret Locations or some other type of set, this is going to make you some great money going forward.

Cliff is an avid Cuber and Commander player, and has a deep love for weird ways to play this game. His current project is a light-up sign for attracting Cubers at GPs, so get his attention @wordofcommander on Twitter if you’ve got ideas or designs.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Low Tide

February 20, 2018 Jason Alt

I keep harping on the same concepts in this series and that’s because some methods are tried and true and until something changes substantially, they’re what make me money and I love to pass those ideas on to my readers. I’ll go over this one again because I think it bears repeating so everyone from the long-term reader to the first-time reader knows what I’m talking about. Namely, I want to talk about graph shapes; the U and the reverse-J.

GRAAAAAAPHS

If a card is reprinted and its price never recovers, you’ll see a really sad graph shape. It peaks then declines to a valley and it’s so depressing that I am not even going to try and find an example and post it here. It’s like the stuff in the gore subreddit – no one really wants to see that. Instead, let’s talk about a happier scenario – a price declines after a reprint but Mr. Organic Demand comes along and says “Turn that frown upside down” and you’re on the maglev bullet train to money town, baby, where the money grows on money trees and you can pay someone to harvest the money with all of the money you’re making. That looks like this.

So if you saw the rebound coming and bought in at the floor, you’re feeling good. The rebound was predictable if you look at EDH demand at all and understand which cards are likely to rebound based on the amalgam of all of their factors such as how many decks the card is in, when it was first printed, the likelihood of another reprinting coming along and pantsing it, etc. However, as a financier, telling you that Crypt Ghast must be a good card because it was $3 then it was $1 then it was $3 again is pretty useless information unless I think it will got to $8, which I don’t since it was never $8 when the supply was lower and the demand was the same. U-shaped graphs are neat but they can’t make us much money since the price has already recovered. You want the first half of that U shape. You want what I call the reverse-J shape, because our language doesn’t have a letter that looks like the first half of a U.

I use this graphic every time but it illustrates how much money can be made if the card recovers to its pre-dip price. So why do I bring all of this up? And what does the title of the article refer to?

I’m So Glad I Pretended You Asked

A long time ago when I started writing about EDH finance full-time, I thought about how to make money on EDH cards and I decided that when new cards were printed, trying to guess their price was less relevant than looking at the archetypes they were likely to enable and speculating on those older cards. Supply would be lower, upside would be higher since the demand wouldn’t be as easily back-filled with copies at the same price making it spike quickly before anyone could react and every card in the deck would go up – theoretically, a rising tide would lift all boats. Well, today we’re all about Low Tide – the first half of the U. We’re going reverse-J hunting and there is a set that came out recently that is going to be just lousy with those sexy shapes. I think the cards in a certain set are at their floor and we’re going to look at EDH demand to see how likely a recovery is and how much money I think you can make if you buy now. Forget dinosaurs and pirates, let’s think about Benjamins.

Iconic Recovery

Iconic Masters reprinted a ton of sexy EDH cards and I think a lot of them are going to recover. How do we determine the likelihood of recovery? I’m not going to address every factor, but I will do three things.

I arbitrarily picked Crypt Ghast because that recovered nicely. I’m going to see how many decks on EDHREC have Crypt Ghast in them and then I am going to compare that number to the number of decks the cards in Iconic Masters are in. If it sounds really simple, it’s because it is. Also, almost no one does this sort of analysis so maybe just thank me for doing it for you even though it’s easy and also reminding you to do it because that’s the actual hard part.
I am going to look at how many times the card has been reprinted and which set it was in initially. If it’s older than Crypt Ghast, I’ll say something vague about how the set print runs were smaller back then.
I’m going to pretend I have some insight into what they tend to select to reprint and gauge how likely I think a second reprinting to be. Most people are very bad at this. I include myself in that group. We go with our guts a lot – I certainly didn’t see a second Black Market reprinting coming and I all but applauded the first one. If this were obvious to anyone, speculating would be a lot less risky and everyone would do it.

So with Crypt Ghast as a nice comparison, let’s look at some Iconic Masters cards. For reference,

16,672 is a number. We’ll remember that later.

Austere Command

So this is in fewer decks than Crypt Ghast, but not too many fewer. I don’t think it’s significant. It’s in the Top 50 White cards on EDHREC so if you’re playing White, chances are you will use this. It’s at what I would call its floor. Look at the price graph for Iconic Masters.

Dealers don’t seem to think it’s going to get any cheaper. If it gets any cheaper or if dealers raise their buy price any more, you’re going to be able to arbitrage the stupid things. Why do that when you can just wait for the price to double, which is what I think it will do? That question mark was for the “why do that” part of the sentence, I am not questioning whether I think it will double, I do. That wasn’t, like, a Ron Burgundy question mark. We’re getting off track – Buy Austere Commands, nerds.

Austere Command has one more reprinting than Crypt Ghast but Lorwyn and Commander (1? Do we call it Commander 1? Just Commander? The first one, whatever we call that) had pretty low print runs compared to RTR and Commander 2014. Remember I said this paragraph would be vague? I meant it. I don’t see a reason why Austere Command won’t completely recover, which means we’re at the bottom of that reverse J. You could wait any longer but look at the Iconic Masters graph again. Dealers aren’t waiting. Why would you?

Consecrated Sphinx

We should make like an epileptic in an office supply store and pick up staples all day. This card is in lots of decks and the dealer buy price is converging with the sale price. We’re at peak supply for Inconic Masters and the copies are as cheap as they are going to get. Whether you think the price will fully recover (I don’t see why not) or not, if you want copies, buy them now because they will only get more expensive. If you think it’s a slam dunk to buy at $15 or lower a card that has demonstrated it can be $35, you might want to do that. This didn’t get a ton of new supply being printed at Mythic in Iconic Masters and this is a little more than the price of a booster pack right now. I think this is a good pickup.

Dealers aren’t as keen on the non-foil copies of the Iconic Masters version, but you saw the price convergence for the Mirrodin Besieged copies. Sphinx is like $10 for IM right now. If it hits $8 and you bought in at $10, buy the same amount again. Congrats, you bought in at $9. If it hits $7, buy in more. If it hits $6, I will buy a playset, blend it into a smoothie and drink it. It won’t hit $6, not anywhere it’s currently $10. TCG Player low is already $13, snapple any cheap eBay auctions you can and thank me later. This is a $20+ card in a year.

Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger

This is in half as many decks as Crypt Ghast. Here I am talking about how it’s going to recover as much or nearly as much. Why am I saying that? Don’t I forsee the demand as being half as much as that of Crypt Ghast? Why do I forsee recovery? The answer to that is in a euphemism Wizards of the Coast loves to use and how it’s not always a euphemism.

They don’t bring prices down, they “increase availability” which usually means “bring prices down” but not always. Reprints introduce more copies of a card into the market. That has the effect of lowering prices, generally, since you’re disrupting one half of the supply/demand dichotomy and therefore affecting the other. However, in the case of a card like Vorniclex that was a $30 mythic from a set you can’t buy anymore, people were priced out. People could break off $5 for a Crypt Ghast but $30 for Vorinclex was out of a lot of price ranges. A $13 Vorinclex? Now you’re talking. People who simply didn’t have access before have access now and I think that creates new demand. When a card goes below a certain price threshold, it becomes more available to people and they buy. I think Vorinclex’s price can recover even if it takes longer because when it’s cheap, it stops not being an option for some people. This is almost the same as Sphinx in every way except for number of decks it’s in so I expect it to recover less than Sphinx but I expect it to be in more decks than it used to be in a year. This is a bit more of a casual card than Sphinx so people being priced out is an actual factor. I think this could recover 75-80% of its pre-reprint value in a year or two. If that’s too long to wait, don’t worry because I have other targets.

Rune-Scarred Demon

I don’t feel like I need to say too much about this. It’s practically a bulk rare and this is a card that once flirted with $8. This won’t be $8 again but it’s at its absolute floor and the demand profile is the same as Crypt Ghast, it’s at the same price point, it’s a card that appeals to both casual and competitive EDH players and it’s not super likely to be re-reprinted in the next year or two. I think you can wait and see if this is in Masters 25 before you buy in, but I think you break off $200 or so and you’ll be very happy with how this performs. I could be missing something, but what? This is pretty Crypt Ghasty and unlike Crypt Ghast, this was reprinted in a set with $10 booster packs, not a popular Commander deck series.

I didn’t mean to do one card of each color so far but since I was going to do 5 cards, let’s pick a red one and wrap it up.

Sheoldred, Whispering One

Red sucks in EDH

I didn’t do a red card because they’re all either not in very many decks, almost exclusively used outside of EDH or they’re Kiki-Jiki and liable to get reprinted 3 more times. I’m giving you a good pick instead of arbitrarily completing a cycle I didn’t even know could be a cycle until I was 80% of the way through it. You’re welcome.

And you’re welcome for me reminding you to buy a card that has demonstrated the ability to flirt with $30 for like $10. This hits $20 again and you’ll be all “Wow, when did this get expensive again?” except you won’t because you’re reading this article so you won’t be surprised but other people will. I’m not sure where I’m going with this. Anyway, Sheoldred will recover and it’s at its floor now, so fill a shopping cart with them and windmill slam that “check out” button. You’re welcome.

This turned into a long article. If I were a lesser writer I would have given 3 picks instead of 5 but I am not a lesser writer. I am a man who finds you reverse-J-shaped graphs. You’re swell for reading, thanks for doing that. Until next time!

Watchtower

UNLOCKED: The Watchtower 2/19/18

February 19, 2018 Travis Allen

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.

I’d love to use this past weekend’s results to dive into what a Jace-laden Modern looks like but alas, we’ll have to wait one more week. Wizards made the (wise) decision not to apply the B&R changes to the format a week before both a GP and SCG Open. It’s easy to be annoyed about that on our end, as an audience clamoring to see how this plays out, but when you consider how many people had already spent weeks preparing for those events, it wouldn’t have been terribly polite to upend the entire format five days before they showed up on site. It’s fine; it’s just one more week.

There was a Modern Challenge that fired this weekend with the new list in place, so I ran through that, along with what I’ve been seeing on Twitter and in various articles. Jace was clearly a strong, but not overpowering card in the Challenge, although that comes with a big asterisk. For one, Jace is currently the most expensive card on MODO. One wonders how many people would have liked to use him but were simply priced out. Additionally, looking at the other decks that did well, it’s not exactly heartening. Burn, Tron, and Dredge were many of the non-Jace lists. How’s that for a gauntlet?

Ancestral Vision

Price Today: $20
Possible Price: $40

If there’s one card that I’ve seen more of since the announcement than Jace itself, it’s probably Ancestral Vision. It would seem people really feel this card is going to do a lot of work alongside Jace.

I’d imagine you start with “they’re both good blue cards, so play them together.” AV helps you find your Jace (although probably a turn late). Jace shuffles AVs away in the late game when they’re dead draws. And add in that As Foretold looks to be having a moment with Jace, and the synergy really starts to pull together. You’ll see this primarily over in Taking Turns, which is one of the first decks that gleefully added Jace. You’ll also spot a Temur list over in the Modern Challenge that ran Jace, AV, and the completely overshadowed Bloodbraid Elf. Using Jace’s +0 to put an AV back on top of your deck and then casting BBE has got to leave you longing for a cigarette.

Don’t forget about that, by the way. This is the first time BBE and AV have been legal in Modern together. Shardless Sultai has been a pillar of Legacy for years at this point, and that deck hinges on the AV/Shardless Agent/Brainstorm interaction. Modern’s version is a tad clunkier, with AV/BBE/Jace, but even still, it’s a powerful engine. We may see the Jace/AV pairing take the back seat to the BBE/AV pairing.

AV was in Time Spiral, two minorly important Duel Deck printings, and most recently, Iconic Masters. Now don’t get me wrong, IMA is a mess. Boxes are available at like, 50% of MSRP or some nonsense. So long as AV is one of the only cards to do well from the set though, there still won’t be enough EV to make it worth cracking the boxes, which means AV can climb without the market getting flooded.

Copies are just about $20 right now. Between how eager people are to play Ancestral Vision with Jace, and the absurd synergy with Bloodbraif Elf, things are looking up for Vision. I’d keep an eye on this to hit $40 sometime this year.

Raging Ravine

Price Today: $12
Possible Price: $25

Let me get this out of the way now: a reprint scares me here. It’s the number one threat to this as a potential spec target. Masters 25 is the next opportunity to see Raging Ravine, alongside the rest of the Worldwake cycle. If we dodge A25, then Ravine is worth considering.

Jace aside, Bloodbraid’s return is a fairly big deal. She was one of the best creatures in Modern before she was banned, and did a lot to shore up Jund. Now that she’s back we’ll certainly see a rise in that strategy, and possibly others as well. The other place I’d expect to see BBE that we didn’t as much prior is Temur. Remember, last time BBE was around AV wasn’t legal. Now that it is, you’ve got compelling reasons to be both Jund and Temur. And maybe Naya too but that doesn’t have Liliana of AV so really why bother.

In any case, Bloodbraid is going to bring Raging Ravine back in a big way. Ravine has always been one of the two best manlands, and now that players have a reason to add both red and green to their creature decks, they’ll have a reason to add Ravine as well.

You can score copies around $12 right now. Without a reprint, prices are definitely going to climb towards $20. There’s going to be a lot more demand for Ravine than there has been the last few years.

Fulminator Mage

Price Today: $25
Possible Price: $40

Bloodbraid loves to cascade into three mana spells. Getting seven mana’s worth for your four mana payment feels like cheating. Popular targets include Liliana of the Veil and I imagine newcomer Kolaghan’s Command. Another popular choice from back in the day that may be even better now is Fulminator Mage.

Cascading into land destruction is a time honored tradition in Modern. Stone Rain, Molten Rain, Boom//Bust, take your pick. It’s always felt good. Fulminator ended up taking the lead as the most popular iteration of land destruction, and he’s possibly better positioned today than the last time BBE was legal.

For one, Tron is a major part of Modern these days. The deck has always been around for a long while, of course, but I don’t think it’s unfair to say that Tron is better today than basically any other time in Modern. Fulminator Mage lets you slow them down considerably, when powered out on turn two by a Hierarch or something similar. T2 Fulminator into T3 BBE into Fulminator is going to smash Tron’s ability to string together enough lands, but it applies some real pressure too.

Of course, this line isn’t good against only Tron. With Jace in the format as well, four mana is going to be more important now than it’s ever been. Keeping opponents off of four with Fulminator will either let you land your Jace first, or give you a window to kill them before they resolve it at all. You also get to nail Inkmoth Nexus’ out of Infect and Affinity, plus whatever other utility lands are floating around on any given day.

Fulminator Mage was a strong target for BBE years ago, and now that she’s back, the format looks even better for the one-two punch. Supply isn’t low or anything, but keep an eye on these. With only a Shadowmoor and MM2 printing, there’s not a lot of copies to come rushing into the market if prices begin to head north.

Travis Allen has been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

[/hide]

MTGPrice Blog