MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 88 (Oct 5th/17)

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Oct 5th, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

Volrath's Shapeshifter

Volrath’s Shapeshifter (STR, Rare)
Start: $.80
Finish: $22.00
Gain: +$21.20 (+2650%)

Rishadan Footpad (MM, Uncommon)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $8.50
Gain: +$8.00 (+1600%)

Approach of the Second Sun (AMK, Rare)
Start: $.75
Finish: $3.00
Gain: +2.25 (+300%)

Diachan, Artful Beauty (CMA, Foil Rare)
Start: $7.00
Finish: $22.00
Gain: +15.00 (+214%)

Rishadan Brigand (MM, Rare)
Start: $7.00
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +$13.00 (+185%)

Heroic Intervention (AER, Foil Rare)
Start: $5.00
Finish: $14.00
Gain: +$9.00 (+180%)

Deathgorge Scavenger (IXL, Rare)
Start: $2.00
Finish: $5.50
Gain: +$3.50 (+175%)

Rishadan Cutpurse (MM, Foil Common)
Start: $8.00
Finish: $22.00
Gain: +$14.00 (+175%)

Hostage Taker (IXL, Rare)
Start: $7.00
Finish: $18.00
Gain: +$11.00 (+157%)

Mirari’s Wake (CON, Foil Rare)
Start: $35.00
Finish: $80.00
Gain: +$45.00 (+129%)

Segment 2: Picks of the Week

James’ Picks:

Thought-Knot Seer

  1. Thought-Knot Seer (OGW, Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $7.00 to $20.00 (+13.00/185%) 6-18+ months)

2. Sigarda’s Aid (EMN, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $3.50 to $10.00 (+6.50/+185%, 12-18+ months)

3. Eldritch Evolution (EMN, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $5.00 to $15.00 (+10.00/+200%, 6-12+ months)

Travis Picks:

Assemble the Legion

Duskwatch Recruiter

  1. Assemble the Legion (GTC, Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 9: $6.00 to $15.00 (+9.00/+150%, 6-12+ months)

2. Phyrexian Metamorph (NPH, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $9.00 to $20.00 (+11.00/+122%, 0-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own, or intend to own, speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The guys talked over the most recent Standard results, pointing out the dominance of Walking Ballista, Hostage Taker and The Scarab God.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

UNLOCKED: The Watchtower 10/16/17

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.


Nationals was back this weekend, and people were loving it. Players across the world took part in their country’s event, and it was clear across social media that this wasn’t just another tournament, that Nationals means more to people than just another GP. Nationalism is not always such an innocent motivator, but at least this weekend, it brought out the best in countrymen. Especially Brazil, whose team of three — yes, all three — are Pro Tour champions. One is even in the Hall of Fame! Hardly a fair fight, guys.

Nationals brought us Standard lists, the SCG Open brought us two Modern events, and EDH continues to be a driving force in the markets.

Confiscation Coup

Price Today: $.25
Possible Price: $3

While UB Control won US Nationals, various forms of energy took 9 out of the top 16 slots, including second place in the hands of Gerry T. In every single one of these lists we can find at least one, and usually two or three Confiscation Coup. Wizards has a long history of printing various permutations on Control Magic, and some have been quite good (Threads of Disloyalty) while others have been unplayable (Willbreaker). Confiscation Coup is looking to land firmly on the top half of the scale.

It’s not so much that Coup is a pushed or especially powerful card, so much as it is that energy is not a balanced mechanic. As a result, Coup ends up playing as one of the best Mind Controls ever, since it isn’t an enchantment, but rather a sorcery. This alone is a meaningful difference. Add in that The Scarab God and Hazoret the Fervent are two major threats in the format, threats that are highly resistant to typical forms of removal, and you’ve got a recipe for permanent control effects to rise to the top.

Coup is never going to be an expensive card, let’s make that clear. It is a useful card though, and it could end up moreso in the coming weeks. If you’re able to snag these for $.25 each, you’re going to have no trouble trading these away for $1 or even $3 each at your local store. For armchair speculators like myself whose primary outlet is selling online they’re probably not worth it, but if you still grind trades locally, a couple of cheap stacks of Coups could turn into some real cardboard on the trade tables.

Angel of Sanctions

Price Today: $1.75
Possible Price: $6

Blue sorceries aren’t the only way to deal with annoying gods. Back in Amonkhet Wizards gave us another answer that’s been quiet thus far; Angel of Sanctions.

Sanctions clears out Scarab Gods and Hazorets while simultaneously presenting an evasive threat, which is beyond helpful when you’re trying to not die to your opponent’s best card and also close out the game. Given that Sanctions is a temporary answer, closing out the game is of course important.

Sanctions’ four toughness is particularly appreciated against red, where Lightning Strike isn’t enough to finish it alone. Then, even if they do manage to destroy Sanctions (but not with Fatal Push!), you can just embalm it to run it back. Sanctions isn’t a permanent answer to either Scarab God or Hazoret, but it can typically manage for at least several turns. And all of this is just about those two threats. Don’t forget it hits all non-land permanents, which means you can aim it at God Pharaoh’s Gift, Anointed Procession, and other annoying creatures, Walking Ballista chief among them.

At $1.75 for a playable, useful mythic, I’m tempted. I’m not expecting this to blow up or anything, but it could easily show up in more strategies than we’re seeing today. How about a 4x Hostage Taker, 4x Angel of Sanctions deck? Makes me long for Eldrazi processors again. In any case, it’s not hard to see how Sanctions could make the climb to $5 or $6, maybe even more.

Heirloom Blade

Price Today: $.75

Possible Price: $5

On the Commander side of things, tribal continues to dominate the most popular decks of late. One of the biggest hits out of Commander 2017 to join along in that ride is Herald’s Horn, with a price tag today of $6. Heirloom Blade is at $.75, and it’s possible that’s out of sync with where it should be.

Herald’s Horn is currently logged in 1,700 EDH decks. Heirloom Blade isn’t in quite that many, rather, a little over 800. That puts it at about half the popularity of Herald’s Horn today. Both are in two Commander 2017 decks, so it’s not like one is more available than the other. If we assume these numbers should be in equal ratios, Blade should cost about 50% of Horn today, or about $3.

And that’s just today. Tribal will continue to be popular for several more months, with Rivals of Ixalan promising to continue the trend set forth in Ixalan. That means more cards that help tribal strategies and more attention on those types of decks. All of these new tribal tools also make other tribes more attractive. My personal project, Clerics, is far more viable now with more cards like Horn and Blade floating around.

There’s no reason Blade shouldn’t cost nearly $3 right now, and that number should rise over the coming months as supply drains and there are more signals to push people to tribal strategies.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


 

MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 87 (Sep 29th/17)

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Sep 29, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

Thran Lens

Thran Lens (UZL, Foil Rare)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $17.00
Gain: +$15.50 (+1033%)

Archenemy Schemes (Archenemy)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$4.00 (+400%)

Pangosaur (MM, Foil Rare)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $3.00
Gain: +2.00 (+200%)

Time of Need (COK, Foil Rare)
Start: $5.00
Finish: $15.00
Gain: +10.00 (+200%)

Morphling (UZS, Rare)
Start: $5.00
Finish: $13.00
Gain: +$8.00 (+160%)

Duress (DCI Arena Foil Promo)
Start: $25.00
Finish: $65.00
Gain: +$40.00 (+160%)

Phyrexian Reclamation (URL, Foil Uncommon)
Start: $38.00
Finish: $95.00
Gain: +$57.00 (+100%)

Hateflayer (EVN, Rare)
Start: $1.25
Finish: $3.00
Gain: +$1.75 (+140%)

Blasphemous Act (INN, Foil Rare)
Start: $9.00
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +$11.00 (+122%)

Living Wish (JUD, Rare)
Start: $3.50
Finish: $7.00
Gain: +$3.50 (+100%)

Segment 2: Picks of the Week

James’ Picks:

Paradox Engine

  1. Paradox Engine (Masterpiece Series Foil)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $45.00 to $80.00 (+35.00/78%) 6-18+ months)

2. Rishkar’s Expertise (Aether Revolt, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $2.50 to $10.00 (+7.50/+300%, 12-18+ months)

3. Lifecrafter’s Bestiary (Aether Revolt, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $3.00 to $10.00 (+7.00/+233%, 6-12+ months)

Travis Picks:

Verdurous Gearhulk

Duskwatch Recruiter

  1. Verdurous Gearhulk (KLD, Foil Mythic)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 9: $7.00 to $20.00 (+13.00/+185%, 6-12+ months)

2. Torrential Gearhulk (KLD, Mythic)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 8: $15.00 to $30.00 (+15.00/+100%, 0-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own, or intend to own, speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The guys took a peek at some early online results for the developing Standard metagame and discussed where things may go from here.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

The guys plowed through a grab bag of user questions.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Prospects of Ixalan

Every set, I like to identify some cards that are going to be awesome in casual formats (unformatted kitchen table, Cube, Commander, etc.) or nonrotating formats and I want to keep an eye on their prices. Ideally, I’ll pick a price and the cards I want will drop below the price I want to pay, so I can get them at that price.

For example: Thespian’s Stage

There were two times, early on in this card’s lifespan, that you could trade for this at a dollar or so, and buy it for fifty cents or so. And I did, as often as I could. I ended up with a stack of them, which I buylisted for $2 each at a GP and had a great time.

If you want a more recent example of this philosophy, how about the foils of Thought-Knot Seer?

My number for that was $20, and I picked up a few at that price, and now I’m trading it away at $35, though I recognize that $40-$50 is in play, considering how popular Eldrazi are in Modern.

With those growths in mind, what looks good in Ixalan at what price?

Settle the Wreckage ($5.50 currently) – This mega-Path to Exile is going to be casual gold, but only if I can get it at the right price. It’s spiked a bit in recent days as an answer for threats like Hazoret the Fervent or The Scarab God, and it can take down Carnage Tyrant too. Where I really love this card is in Commander, because so many people don’t play a lot of basics. This is also a backbreaking spell to cast against Bogles, but that deck is too niche for precious sideboard slots in Modern.

Notice that right now, the foil is only a couple bucks more than the nonfoil. Traditionally, this indicates that Standard demand is very high, and the casual demand hasn’t caught up yet. I’m in on foils at $3-$4, and the plain versions around a dollar, maybe two. A lot will depend on price memory for this card, if too many people remember it as a $5 card then the price won’t have a chance to fall.

Vanquisher’s Banner ($2) – The foils here are about $6, and that feels right for now. The nonfoil is a very huge reprint risk, but considering that we just got the tribal Commander sets, I think it’s safe for a while. Foils are usually safer, but there’s no guarantees. I can tell you that I’d generally prefer to see this than Door of Destinies in my hand, because getting the constant flow of cards is supremely valuable. I’m hoping for this to drop to $1/$3, and I’m optimistic, considering that this was nearly $5 on release.

Primal Amulet ($2) – A couple of special notes about this card: First, it’s got a foil multiplier of five, which tells us that the casual demand for this card is very high. It makes sense, though, because we love doubling our awesome spells when playing at our kitchen table. This has much higher long-term potential than a recent favorite of mine, Pyromancer’s Goggles, because it’s a land and there’s no color restrictions.

The second note about this card is that we have ten rare transform cards, and this is flying in the face of something we were told before: that adding flip cards to a set is logistically problematic. I’ve thought for some time that transforming foils are among the safest investments in Magic finance, because they are hard to reprint in regular sets, but here we are, with a sprinkling of transform. This is something I want to be aware of going forward, as it’s one more sign that nothing is safe, except the Reserved List.

The Amulet is already a $10 foil, and I’d like that to come down a dollar or two. The nonfoil is hopefully going lower, but I’m content to pick these up at $2 in trade.

On a related note, Dowsing Dagger is at a similar price point, and trending downward a bit more steeply. I’m really hoping this is a $6 foil in the next month or two.

Boneyard Parley ($1) – I’m always an advocate for bulk mythics, but the foil being $5 caught my eye. I don’t think this is a good card, but my goodness, this is a sweet card. For seven mana, late in a Commander game, you’re getting the best card in any graveyard, and potentially the best two or three, depending on what you need and who’s choosing the piles.

River’s Rebuke (50 cents) – Cyclonic Rift is going to get banned eventually in Commander, I suspect. I don’t have any evidence or special insight into the Rules Committee, I just despise the card and what it does to gameplay. I’m stocking up on these foils at $2-$3, because the multiplier tells me it’s more popular than the usual foil version of the card. This is a powerful effect, but more fair since it’s just one person being targeted and this is a sorcery. I am looking forward to having a stack of these when we’re done with Ixalan.

Here, have two more that are from recent sets and have the appeal I’m looking for: foils of Eldrazi Displacer at about $10, and foils of Lifecrafter’s Bestiary at around $5. You don’t need me to tell you that these are good cards, but if you want to get some value that’s due to pop, there you go.

Cliff is an avid Cuber and Commander player, and also has a crusade against a few other cards that ruin Commander games. Feel free to drop a message to him and ask for a Cube list, and read his articles every Friday here on MTGPrice.

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