Resolutions, Past and Future

I’ve done it before and I’m bringing back the standby: The New Year’s Resolutions.

In case you want to delve into my past in this regard, here’s my list from last year, which includes a retrospective on the year before.

2016 was a pretty awesome year for me in Magic.

#1: Use PucaTrade to Acquire a Gaea’s Cradle.

Done! I paid a bounty, but my goodness, did it feel good to pick one up. I’ve chronicled my ups and downs with Puca in the past, but this year has been a very good one for me with Pucatrade. I’ve gotten a Cradle, multiple SDCC foils, a judge foil Sol Ring…yeah, it’s going well for me.

Like many others, I’ve had to work more at things since Future Site came along. There’s a lot of people who are trying to trade up via the site, and so it’s not as easy as it was. But I remain invested, and optimistic.

#2: Have a Regular Magic scene

Done! I don’t get to go as much as I want, but I’ve got good babysitters and an even better Commander group. Oh it feels nice, and there’s a healthy mix of insane combo and janky durdling.

#3: Trust my reads more

Working on it. I did a lot more selling than buying this year, though, and I’ve decided to stick to playsets of things. I keep my stack of 50-odd Prophet of Kruphix in a clearly visible location. I’m not one for going deep anymore.

#4: Get and stay organized

Mostly done. I’m down to two binders. One for trading and one for long-term holds that don’t go into storage, as well as my signed cards. I just prefer keeping them in a binder, rather than a box.

#5: Be on a podcast

I didn’t actually write this out here, I said it on Twitter, but podcasting is fun. It’s crossed off my to-do list, and I got to do casts with both James and Travis as they each went on warm vacations.

Ideally, I’d have the chance to do that more, but we will see.

 

So what are my goals for 2017?

#1: Make Day 2 of a Grand Prix

So I’m going to have a couple of chances at this, in a variety of formats. I haven’t done it yet, and I don’t think any less of myself for it…but I really want it. I mean, REALLY want it.

It’s going to take more practice and more discipline from me. I know that I trade with a clear eye and a calculating demeanor, and I am good enough at Magic to make a day 2. I’ve been at this long enough to have come close a few times, and this is a goal I should be able to pull off. I hope.

#2: Spend more money

It seems silly coming from me, someone who’s been writing about Magic finance for more than three years, but I’ve been taking a lot more profit out of my collection than I’ve been putting in. I sold my all-foil deck for a pretty penny this year, and that was satisfying indeed, even as it tore a piece out of my magpie of a soul.

Like many of you, I follow people on Twitter who sell cards every so often. I buy on occasion, when the value is there, but I know that I would be making more if I spent more. I’m not talking crazy stacks of money or cards, but I want to have a bankroll that is just for Magic, and not subject to the vagaries of how often I have to buy shoes for my kids.

#3: Build a Cube

One of the guys I play with has a powered Cube, and he loves it. He’s built and disassembled several over his career, and I want one.

However, I’m far too random for a stock list, and I am really leaning towards making mine an experience. I’m very likely to build the Reject Rare Cube, but I might pick a block.

It’s a nice feeling to know that there are enough people I play with regularly, that this Cube would see some play. I might foil it out, I might not. Foiling out something like this usually a profitable undertaking, but it’s so much work. I did it once and I’m not sure I have the patience for another go-round.

#4: Treat Magic as a social event, not just a game or a financial transaction.

I recently realized that a lot of my interactions around the game are ancillary to my primary goal: To have fun with other people.

Yes, I trade with an eye for value. I loathe being the one who gives up a $20 card for four $5 cards, unless that’s a playset of Eldrazi Displacer.

But what I get from this game hasn’t just been value. It’s been friends. It’s been fun. It’s been connections that I value highly, and I want a lot more of that.

You may have seen people recently questioning the EV of a Grand Prix Main Event. That’s valid, considering the prices. I’ll be writing about this exact issue as we get close to GP San Jose.

There’s a lot to be gained from everything else happening at these events, which really are conventions. Look around at a GP. Artists, accessories, a bazillion side events. Look at the people who got together for the first time in forever and rented a house together. Look at the kids and their parents playing alongside. Look at the sheer number of people having a blast, even the ones who simply measure their fun by how many unwanted commons they scoop up.

I want to keep my eye on everything that’s good about this community. There is a long way to go before it’s perfect, as we have too many players who aren’t welcoming or appropriate in their interactions, but the game is awesome and the people should be too.

Yes, 2016 has had a lot of awful things happen. Some are going to last for years.

Here’s to a better 2017, one filled with fun and Masterpieces and sweet brews and incredible stories.

PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 12/29/16

It’s the end of the year, and despite this being a lull in news, there’s lots of news! We’ve learned what most of the Aether Revolt Inventions are, and we’ve heard people whine about Ornithopter.

I don’t suppose it’s news that a whole lot of the Affinity deck got Invention versions, as that’s a deck that combines some awesome artifacts. Enchantress decks will have their day in the sun too.

We are about to get hyped on sweet, sweet spoiler coverage starting just next week, and that’s always a sneaky, sneaky time financially. Some cards are going to spike as new combos are revealed. Some will drop as new answers are printed.

I want to look at things that still have nearly a year to go in Standard, because there’s three sets’ worth of cards to make them spike. You may or may not agree with some of these, and that’s what the comments and the forums are for.

To the picks!

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ProTrader: Hot Spec (Dec 28/16)

Note: This article was available for 48 hours exclusively to MTGPrice.com Pro Traders. Sign up today to get a head start on our best ideas.

Hey guys,

This is a new series I’m going to be running every so often, where I give you just the basic info you need to make some money, so that you can get in on what is likely to be a limited time opportunity once the word gets out.

So long story short, it turns out that EDH focused Masterpiece cards from Kaladesh are significantly cheaper in Europe via MagicCardmarket.eu, likely because the EDH scene is significantly weaker in several of the EU countries. The other factor is that the EU has fallen against the USD and is now a mere 1.05 to the dollar.

Specifically I suggest taking a hard look at the following cards:

  • Sol Ring
  • Mana Crypt
  • Chromatic Lantern
  • Rings of Brighthearth

Sol RingMana Crypt

Chromatic LanternRings of Brighthearth

Each of these cards is likely to make you $20-40/copy within the year, with more upside if their stock runs low in North America. Amazingly, most of these were even lower last month, but so it goes.

Here’s how it all breaks down:

  • Sol Ring
    • TCG NM around $120 (30 copies left)
    • MCM NM $70
    • Upside: $40+/copy after fees/shipping
  • Mana Crypt
    • TCG NM around $115 (30 copies left)
    • MCM NM $75
    • Upside: $35+/copy after fees/shipping
  • Chromatic Lantern
    • TCG NM around $60 (42 copies left)
    • MCM NM $30
    • Upside: $25+/copy after fees/shipping
  • Rings of Brighthearth
    • TCG NM around $45 (27 copies left)
    • MCM NM $25
    • Upside: $15+/copy after fees/shipping

What I love about this is that there is solid arbitrage on the table, and the declining inventory on TCG suggest that holding these cards will provide further upside once the focus is on Aether Revolt and Amonkhet (which could admittedly shift the focus as folks chase those cards, but it also cuts off the supply.)

Here’s what you need to do to make the play:

  1. Live in Europe, because MCM only allows shipping to EU addresses
  2. If you don’t live in Europe find a friend or make a contact via social media and arrange for them to order the cards for you in exchange for future favors. For instance, you could suggest that they order a few extra copies for themselves so that they can send them along with your own copies and have you sell them and send them back the cash net fees via Paypal. Alternatively, a cash fee, future favors trading or profit sharing arrangement may work. Yes, this is the tricky part, but you will want this contact later.
  3. Ask your trading partner to focus on sellers with good sales records and multiple copies of your target in stock. Shipping is significantly more expensive via MCM, with each shipment to your trading partner likely to end up between 2e and 8e. Clearly this means you want to be placing larger orders to reduce drag but the arbitrage is good enough here to make your play worthwhile so long as you’re diligent about the shipping costs.
  4. It costs your partner more to pay via Paypal, so try to find a partner who is already set up to pay MCM via online bank transfer and they won’t have to pass those fees on to you as well.
  5. Send the partner cash to cover the order via Paypal, and make clear in the notes what you are expecting in return.
  6. Most of these picks can make you money right away, but I think they’ll be even better in 6 months, so consider building up a stack with your trading partner to reduce overall shipping costs overseas per card when you eventually take possession.

If you’re too slow on the draw here, remember, something similar is likely to happen with EDH focused Masterpieces in the rest of the sets this year so keep an eye on the charts.

Cheers, hope it works out for you!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Tony Stark Trawled This Article in a Cave

This gif is pretty tight, but all he says is “scraps” and it looks like he’s yawning, but super aggressively in that’s dude’s face. Incidentally, did you know that dude was Peter Billingsley? He should have warned Obadiah that he was going to shoot his eye out. AMIRITE?

Yes, of course I’m right. I don’t mean to brag, but lately I have been right more than usual, but always accidentally. I’ll take it. This week I was accidentally right when I mentioned a lot of 3 CMC artifacts that would be sweet in a world with Trophy Mage around and, sure enough, they went and made a bunch of them into Masterpieces. Ensnaring Bridge, Oblivion Stone, Vedalken Shackles, Sword of Body and Mind, Sword of War and Peace, Staff of Domination and Extraplanar Lens are all getting the Masterpiece treatment. Did you notice that Extraplanar Lens is looking into a different plane where you can clearly see something that looks like Nicol Bolas’ horn? Of course you didn’t notice that, you’re not a nerd. You like finance. So let’s talk about it.

The topic of 3 CMC artifacts was a good one and we will continue that spirit with a discussion about what people are going to use Scrap Trawler for.

Is it possible that I am wrong and no one will use Scrap Trawler for anything? It’s distinctly possible. I am sure even if I end up being super 100% right and Trawler ends up $25 and has to be emergency jammed in a precon or something, someone is still going to argue with me in the comments section of this article. However, I am learning to trust my gut a bit more than I used to.

I think Scrap Trawler could be the next Eldrazi Displacer, use in EDH as well as Standard and Modern as a possibility. I think it can effect as many prices due to how powerful it is and I think I am going to go with my gut rather than let a low price throw me like I did with Copter. They say the Wisdom of the Crowd is a thing, but this crowd made Pain Seer a $12 preorder (some guy on QS even said he was going to sell his Bobs when they spoiled Pain Seer) so I’m going to take whatever the crowd says with a grain of salt. NCIS is the #1 drama on Television – the crowd lost its “swaying my opinion” privileges. I think Trawler has a lot of potential for combotastic artifact stuff and I think there is real money to be made. Let’s start with a big one.

This is kind of a weird one. A lot of the online retailers are sold out but TCG Player has these NM for like $5. A lot of the Mirrodin ones are disappearing in better conditions. This is also a recent Masterpiece at around $30 and that is going to be pretty tempting when the $18 Mirrodin foils sell out because the non-foil is over $10 (The current price of 10th Edition foils, hint hint.) This is a card that Wizards is clearly hinting at with the Masterpiece printing given its current EDHREC analytics. However, as many appearances in Breya decks as in Sharuum decks where it’s an important combo piece means demand has doubled. This pairs with Sharuum for shenaningans in any artifact deck that has access to blue and black, really, and it’s a limited Metamorph in a pinch, which is fine when they have Sword of Feast and Famine or something nasty like that. The combo with Sharuum is of the greatest immediate import since I think Trawler makes that combo way less annoying and way more lethal. I am thinking sac Perilous Myr to KCI or Ashnod’s Altar to blast them, get Myr back with Trawler when your play Sculpting Steel as a copy of Sharuum, bin it due to the legend rule and use Sharuum’s ability to keep the combo going. Instead of infinitely replaying Steel with Sharuum’s ability, you get back a few different artifacts and use the mana from Altar or KCI to get a few smaller loops going. If you don’t have Bitter Ordeal, this helps you win another way. Also, more people will play the old combo regardless of Trawler because they are building the combo into a brand new Breya deck. Sculpting Steel seems like a killer target and I think all of the prices could move soon since supply is taking a hit.

While we’re on the subject, Metamorph is selling out and is pretty cheap for as ubiquitous as it is in EDH and how much play in Modern it sees on top of that. This is a card that is in the same Sharuum combo as Sculpting Steel but which has a little additional flexibility. I like this a lot at its current price, frankly. This has demonstrated that it can be a $20 card and while we’re not going to see the same demand we used to see, we can see a few years between printing and present. Interestingly enough, the promo has made the foil of this card less than 2x the non-foil. That is fine for now, but as the price of the non-foil increases, that will not be right anymore. Not just that, but as the card gets enough play to justify a higher price, it will justify more than a 2x multiplier. This gives foils that I think are pretty cheap right now a lot more upside than the non-foils. I like this card quite a bit, if only for future EDH use.

I warned about this card before and now it looks like it’s basically gone under $9. If you’re sleeping on this card, don’t. $9 is not the ceiling by any stretch. This is getting a lot of hype and demand lately and supply is low-ish. I don’t know that I like paying $9 for this to spec on, but if you want this to play with, it’s certainly a bad idea to wait. This could get a reprint in Commander 2017, but with that list probably already close to being finalized, it’s unclear whether that’s possible. What IS clear is that a way to sac artifacts and trigger Trawler is going to be important for combo decks going forward. Ashnod’s Altar is another card with upside, though I’m not sure how much due to the high supply of that card.

This is a card that I feel like is a potential Standard all-star once we get the cards from Aether Revolt incorporated into Standard. This will always be a card that casual players like and it’s a real sac engine that gives you a big body. If it dies, you can get just about anything back with Trawler out. Colossal cards are good growth cards long-term and this is pretty good with Trawler in a lot of different potential decks in several formats. This is a bulk spec and I rarely do those and with the card being super new, it will take an awful lot (more than EDH can muster, surely) to make the price move. However, whenever a card has cross-format applicability and is guaranteed to do something eventually, it’s worth pointing out.

I kind of figured this and Panharmonicon would both be bulk rares by now but Panharmonicon had different plans. It’s hard to know when Standard players will look at an obvious EDH card and decide to jam it in Standard. What isn’t hard to know is that Panharmonicon has the potential to go one of two ways in the future while Aetherflux Reservoir is going nowhere but up. This is basically bulk at this point and I like bulk rares that I know will be real money in a while. This is this set’s Dictate of Erebos. A Dictate of Erebos doesn’t come along every single set, but when they do, it’s great. You know that EDH will primarily be responsible for driving its price which gives us time to fill a box of them. Fill a box full of these. Get a bulk rare from Kaladesh or a recent set? Trade it for an Aetherflux Reservoir. Tell people at your LGS that you’ll pay $0.50 for every copy they bring you. Screw it, pay $1 if you can’t get them for $0.50. It’s bulk so the foil at $5 means there is upside there, also. a 5x multiplier indicates EDH players are very aware of this card. Oloro decks run this as well as Ayli decks because the life you gain can be from other sources – all Reservoir cares about is whether you have enough life to pay to dome some fool. You have time to get to a few hundred copies of this before it goes up in price, so start now. For reference, here is what Dictate of Erebos did.

I never paid $1 on this which is good because the highest buylist price right now is $1.50, but even if we use buylist as an out, we turned bulk rares that we can buylist for a dime into a card worth 15 times that. I got a lot of dictates by trading another bulk rare straight up which means I got 15x on the trade. Not bad at all. I paid cash on a lot of the rest of them and the card isn’t done going up. I sold enough copies to buylists for between $1.50 and $2 that all of the copies I have left were free and I’m just watching the price go up. I feel like it’s fairly obvious that Aetherflux will do the same thing and we have a chance to pick these up for nothing right now. We’d be crazy not to.

While we’re on the subject of cards that remind me of Dictate of Erebos without caring if they interact with Trawler, which was ostensibly the card we were writing about this week, I offer this. This might not be this set’s Dictate of Erebos, but that just makes it this set’s Thespian’s Stage. I like this as a bulk rare in trades, too. There are so many cards that are worth like $3 because of standard that will be a dime in a year. Trading off a Scrapheap Scrounger for a pile of Reservoirs and Fairs seems like they should rename the card Inventor’s Unfair. Get it? Because the trade is lopsided.

It’s possible we entirely missed the boat on this card. I hope not because it quietly doubled this year and no one seemed to notice. I think with the focus on artifacts we’ll get from Breya and this card getting farther from the time it was printed, there is still money to be made on this. $2 is certainly not too high of a buy-in price for a card with a lot of upside. Trawler is going to get us a ton of cards to play which lets us keep getting Mirrorworks triggers. We can sac the tokens to KCI to pay for the Mirrorworks trigger when we replay something which lets us go off with Bitter Ordeal or Blasting Station or Aetherflux Reservoir or whatever. Mirrorworks is a card someone on Twitter (I don’t remember who, sorry, nerd.) and I had run across on EDHREC and sort of dismissed. I think dismissing it was a mistake. Even though it has recently doubled, I think this could interact well with Trawler and other artifact cards and I think this is worth a look, especially since Mirrodin Besieged was a weird set that no one is super excited to bust boxes of now.

Speaking of “We may have missed the boat” I feel like if you mention a card two different times in an article, you should at least show the graph of its price. I wish I had cared about EDH finance 3 years ago. I bought one of these for a few bucks to go in my Sharuum deck. One. Oh well, I bought a playset of Goyf for $3 each years ago and hindsight is 20/20. We all have made the mistake of buying exactly as many copies of a card as we need. Hopefully we’ve learned a thing or two since then. That does it for me this week. I like Trawler and people who think about these things will continue to come up with combos that involve Scrap Trawler. It’s probably too durdly for Modern, but EDH and Standard could use it and I think we have the potential to see some cards go up. Until next week! Year. Until next year.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY