PROTRADER: The Inventor’s Fair Unveiled

September 14, 2016 Travis Allen 1 Comment

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

A little over a month ago, I wrote about Expeditions, the bonus land cycle found in Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch. We explored how they’ve fared so far and the implications on the normal cards in the set they came from. “This will be useful if they ever print an Expeditions set again,” I said. Well, guess what!

Here’s all of the Kaladesh Inventions within Kaladesh packs:

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Jason Alt

My Masterpiece Masterpiece – Part 1

September 13, 2016 Jason Alt 13 Comments

Welp, I’ve done it again. I’ve committed to doing an article that’s going to be a lot of work that I’m not even sure if I want to write anymore. Seriously, have you seen how many Masterpieces there are in this set? And I said I would write about all of them? What hubris. But that’s what I do, I overcommit and challenge myself not to underdeliver.

You guys are worth it, though. You’re the best and savviest readers in the business because you know EDH is slow, forgiving, predictable and steady. It might not be as sexy as Pyromancer’s Goggles spiking overnight and everyone scrambling to place and order that’s going to be cancelled before everyone else does, but the sports car you buy with all of the money you make buying Squandered Resources for a quarter each will be.

Can we predict where the Masterpieces are likely to end up? Where they’ll start out? What this will do to the price of the set? We can sure try. Let’s get messy.

The Gearhulk cycle

Star City wants $40 for these beasts, which may or may not be too much. I feel like this won’t get as much EDH play as they need to in order to sustain $40. With 2/3 of the Zendikar expeditions trending downward in price, EDH demand isn’t enough on some of these cards and I don’t think these will even have much EDH demand. Noxius and Torrential are obviously good, but good enough? I don’t see it. These are a sell at their current $40.

Aether Vial

SCG wants $120 for this right off the bat, and I think that may be pretty close. There are 9 Zendikar Expeditions currently above $120 and half of them are trending upward in price right now. Of course the top 5 are all fetchlands used in multiple formats, which makes it tough to judge the price of Vial. However, Ancient Tomb is currently $120 and I think Vial is a decent corrollary for Vial, actually. It’s used as a 4-of in the decks that use it and it’s used in multiple formats. I feel like Ancient Tomb gets used in a few more places than Vial, however. Vial has Darksteel foils, FTV foils, Modern Masters foils and now these. Is this Masterpiece far and away the sexiest? Yes, and people who want these will want 4. If you look at Ancient Tomb, the price has barely moved, but Ancient Tomb doesn’t have the Modern demand Vial does, leading me to believe Vial could have upside due to there being more demand for it than for Tomb. FTV Aether Vial costs 50% more than FTV Tomb, but those have wildly different availability, so that’s sort of meaningless as a metric. Ultimately, I don’t think Vial at $120 is correct based on how much more in-demand it will be than Ancient Tomb. I think this has upside.

I hope the rest of these go quicker. I got cocky being able to do 5 at once and I just wrote half a book about one card.

Champion’s Helm

and

Chromatic Lantern

$50 for this is almost certainly incorrect for Helm. Scarcity has made Helm expensive – it is $2 more than Chromatic Lantern despite being in far fewer decks. However, I don’t think the prices will stay similar. There will be the same number of Expedition Champion’s Helms and Chromatic Lanterns with much greater demand for one than the other. I think the prices will diverge. We’re left to figure out which way prices will go. Considering a regular foil Lantern is already $20, I am inclined to say that $50 may be too cheap for Lantern. Mana Confluence is a $50 Expedition and that is down from $80 and has a $17 foil from the set. I think the starting point for the Expeditions may be misleading because a lot of those were pure guesswork and we have some more data this time. I think Lantern may have a bit of upside at $50, but, again, looking at Mana Confluence which has a very similar non-foil price, it may hover around $50 +/- $5 or so because while EDH demand for Lantern is very strong, it’s only the one format. I think Helm will tail down in price more than Lantern does. I have taken into account the fact that this is the only premium way to get Champion’s Helm and there are already foil Lanterns – I think the profound difference in demand within EDH more than accounts for that.

Chrome Mox

Chrome Mox is an odd card. Banned in Modern, underutilized in Legacy, not a great deal in EDH, this card nonetheless is commanding $80 out of the gate. People who want one are likely to want 3 or 4 and that could be the factor that makes this sell higher than EDH staples that disappear one at a time. Chrome Mox is a $40 set foil despite also being printed as a $25 GP Promo.

It’s hard to find a corollary for this. Almost all of the expeditions lost at least 30% of their value over time due to the sheer amount of guessing that went into pricing them initially and the stickiness of prices on very rare, luxury cards. There won’t be a huge race to the bottom on any of these cards, so a lot of these prices may hold. The very highly-sought cards will have upside but the rest will likely tail off and I think this is likely to tail off a bit, or at least have a very difficult time growing in price. I don’t like this at $80.

Cloudstone Curio

I’d stake quite a bit of money on this tanking. I wish I could short it, frankly. SCG wants $50 for this, which I don’t think it can sustain. Curio is used in a few goofy combo decks and basically just Animar in EDH (I mean, I use it in a lot of my decks but EDHREC data shows Animar uses it 6 times as often as the deck where it gets the second most use and it’s used about a tenth as much as Lantern) so you have to question where the demand is coming from. It basically isn’t, put simply. When Beck//Call was spoiled SCG bought the internet out of Cloudstone Curio banking on a UG elf deck emerging in Modern because Elves wasn’t quite getting there with Glimpse of Nature banned. The deck never materialized (I bet my money on Intruder Alarm and had even less luck). The price is sticky and that’s leading to an overevaluation of Curio in my view. I don’t think its current demand makes it a good candidate to be the same price as cards with more demand. This is a sell.

Crucible of Worlds

At $150, this is one of the more pricey Masterpieces based on SCG preorder pricing. Wasteland Expedition is currently $150, down from an initial $300. Wasteland has 2 DCI rewards foil versions worth $250 so it seemed logical for Wasteland to start out at $250+. What do we have for Crucible? A $100 Judge foil and 2 set foils around $100 also. Wasteland fell below its judge foil versions, although those are quite scarce and the Crucible is much newer. I think this could be priced pretty accurately – I don’t expect this to fall below the set foil price by any means and since the judge foil is pegged at where the set foils are (which finally moved after I pointed out on Twitter that Strike Zone had non-foils for $10 cheaper than foils. Maybe not because I pointed it out, but after I pointed it out.) and the Masterpiece version is bound to be more. Yet it’s hard to see the version going up without demand that rivals or even exceeds something like Wasteland, which is played as a 4-of in a format where Crucible is a 1-of or Scalding Tarn which increased in price despite being pretty expensive to begin with as an expedition. I think $150 is pretty close.

Gauntlet of Power

Gauntlet of Power is a $30 set foil, which is more than Chromatic Lantern which makes sense considering how much more Return to Ravnica was printed than Time Spiral. There is not more demand for Gauntlet than there is for Lantern. If we don’t expect Lantern to grow much if at all, we can extrapolate that Gauntlet could have some downside at $50, though not much since it’s bound to go for more than the set foil.

Hangarback Walker

This is $50 because none of the cards are cheaper than $50. This should be cheaper than $50. This is barely played in any format and this price is going to tank. If it holds it’s because every other Masterpiece doubled in price and this article becomes hilarious in hindsight because I got literally every call wrong. If that’s the case, are you going back through this article in the future after Chromatic Lantern is $300 to write a comment chewing me out for telling you it might not be a great buy at $50 and running across this paragraph? How meta for you. You’ll notice that even though I predicted getting everything wrong, which was write, I got every price wrong, including Hangarback Walker which, again, I think has a lot of downside.

Lightning Greaves

This is probably underpriced. This is a $20 set foil as an uncommon. This is an absolute EDH staple and one of the few Masterpieces beyond Sol Ring for which that is true. If some of the other cards that are played way less often are $50, this has a decent chance of upside since there are so many decks this is waiting to go into compared to the other $50 cards and there will be one Lightning Greaves for every Champion’s Helm. This has real upside and I think if someone cracks this at the LGS and you can get it for $40 you will be happy later.

Lotus Petal

Sure, this gets used as a 4-of and sure it gets used in Legacy and some in Vintage and those are pimp formats, but at $80 I think the demand for this card is overstated a bit. Legacy players aren’t the only ones who pimp their decks out. I think $80 is high. Then again, Breeding Pool is $80 right now and that started at $100.

I am at the halfway point of the list and if I keep going, this article is going to turn into a monstrosity. We have some time until Kaladesh comes out so I think I will write the rest of this up later and release it on Monday of next week. If some of the prices start to move, that will help us write the second half with more data and a better frame of reference. If anything I said in the first half pans out, even better. Thanks for reading Part 1 of my Masterpiece Masterpiece. Until next week!

Spoiler Coverage

Masterpiece Series and Kaladesh Inventions

September 13, 2016 Travis Allen 1 Comment

Just when we thought we were at peak excitement regarding Kaladesh, Wizards unveiled Kaladesh Inventions, an entry in the new Masterpiece Series!

In Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch, ultra-rare cards appeared occasionally in booster packs. These cards were reprints of some of the best lands Magic: The Gathering has ever seen, printed with brand-new frames and custom art. In the year since their release, they’ve been spotted all over coverage tables, and are an exclusive collector’s item for those with deep pockets.

After taking the Shadows Over Innistrad block off, Wizards is bringing back these special promo cards in a big way, starting with Kaladesh Inventions. Kaladesh Inventions is similar to Zendikar Expeditions in that they’ll show up very rarely; roughly 1 in every 140 booster packs. There are 30 that will appear in Kaladesh, and another 24 will come with Aether Revolt. Each of the 54 in these two sets will be an artifact. What’s especially amazing is the border — these cards are beautiful! Players across the continuum have been raving about how excellent they look.

Perhaps the bigger news is that Kaladesh Inventions is only part of a larger feature which is the Masterpiece Series. When Zendikar Expeditions was revealed we all wondered whether it would become permanent. Well, now we have our answer! Going forward, each new block will come with its own special run of cards tied thematically to the world of the set. Battle for Zendikar’s entry was all lands. Kaladesh’s are all artifacts. If we ever return to Theros, that will likely be all enchantments. Next year’s Amonkhet will almost definitely feature some Nicol Bolas-inspired entries.

For more information, check out Mark Rosewater’s article here. You can view all of the revealed cards in Kaladesh Inventions here. And check back on Wednesday when Travis goes in-depth on what impact Kaladesh Inventions will have on the secondary market!

Accumulated Knowledge

PROTRADER: Champions of Kaladesh

September 9, 2016 Ross Lennon

Okay, so I’m going to say something that is going to sound a little extreme and “hot take”-sy, but hear me out, okay?

Kaladesh looks to me like another Kamigawa block.

This is not a slight. The Kamigawa block had a lot of issues, but the crux of a lot of them was that the block, from a development perspective, was extremely insular. Even though Spirits became a somewhat supported tribe¹, things like Arcane, Samurai, and …Fox Offering (!) have yet to be seen again. Now, with regards to Standard, this does not mean that Kaladesh will not be able to have a robust impact- R&D has gotten MUCH better since CHK, so I trust them to take big swings on new blocks. This DOES mean that we are not likely to see Kaladesh mechanics have a wide impact on larger formats. What that means is going to be our focus for today, but I want to start with a couple crucial definitions that I just made up.

The Three Degrees of New Card Impact on Existing Cards/Decks:

The First Degree: Direct Support, or ‘More of a Thing’. The best example of what I’m talking about here is “tribes”. If you like to play Elves in Modern, then any new set featuring cards with elves on them is giving you new potential options. The other most common instance here is when WotC brings back an existing mechanic.

The Second Degree: Indirect Support, or ‘Similar/Related Things’. Okay, so think about Become Immense in Infect. Technically, Become Immense (or any other Giant Growth effect) is not an “Infect card”, but any new version of that type of effect is at least a consideration in Infect. This is where we are looking for related characteristics of effects, not literal uniformity. We get more second degree impact than first degree impact.

The Third Degree: Minimal Support, or ‘Standalone Things’. So this is where things get sketchy, just because most things at least interact with something. This is where we are going to plug in Energy (the new Kaladesh mechanic), because it is a fundamentally new form of resource management that has almost no relation to anything prior in Magic’s history². Vehicles probably also fit in here, even though they are a new innovation on a long-existing card type. This is also where plane-specific tribes wind up, like the aforementioned foxes of Kamigawa, the Cephalid of Otaria, and the Gremlins of Kaladesh.

So I think that by just laying out those definitions I somewhat made the point about Kaladesh. I don’t expect Vehicles (and their associated mechanic ‘Crew’) or Energy to become evergreen staples in the Magic vocabulary, and they have little application in the world that they are entering into. The result, as it was in Kamigawa, will be that individually powerful cards will thrive outside of Standard only in instances that maximize their essential uniqueness (Gifts Ungiven, Kiki-Jiki, the Mirror Breaker). What’s nice for us on the finance side is that artifacts still play a major role on this plane, and cool and flavorful artifacts can have appeal in formats as disparate as Commander, Cube, and Vintage. Foils of Ceremonious Rejection, for example, could be very rewarding long-term holds in Vintage circles while simultaneously hitting both Tron and Eldrazi in Modern.

It’s possible that some cards involving Energy Counters could be playable in Commander, but expect them to be higher rarity and essentially standalone cards. Take, as a perfect (and potentially only) example, Aetherworks Marvel:

This doesn't take any work, which is all you want. — This doesn’t take any work, which is all you want.

Because this card is able to eventually produce the effect on its own, the Es essentially operate as better Charge Counters that don’t go away when the card is destroyed. If you are able to get it back into play again later (or make a copy), then it may actually start off ahead of schedule. The checklist here is going to break down as the following:

The card in question can make Energy counters on its own.
The card in question has a desirable effect independent of Energy Counters.
The card in question is unique enough to warrant play over existing options.

Aetherworks Marvel is probably best compared to Temporal Aperture, although it is able to function without any additional mana investment (although it is likely much slower). Because cards like Temporal Aperture are very few and far between, it’s likely that this is worth consideration, but be wary of something with much more mainstream comps.

I’m not going to do a “traditional” set review for Kaladesh, partially because of the reasons we outlined today, and partially because I think that WotC is printing enough product now that a card REALLY needs to be a hit in Standard to maintain a good mid-term value. So come back next week for my Standard-Centric Kaladesh Set Review, starting next week.

In the meantime, FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!

DUUUUUUVAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLL,

Ross

1Although not really outside of UW, and that was only after Innistrad.

2I think you can technically proliferate Energy Counters, but let’s not be too nit-picky.

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