Pro Tour Eldritch Moon: Day 2 MTGFinance Coverage

August 5, 2016 James Chillcott 6 Comments

Editor’s Note: Relevant financial details in blue, folks.

Coming into Day 2 of this smaller than usual Pro Tour stop, several interesting decks have made waves, and a handful of cards have already popped. After being featured on camera winning games over and over on Day 1, Emrakul, the Promised End popped from $15 to well over $40, only to fall back toward $25 as vendors and speculators sought to sell into the hype. Liliana, the Last Hope, which came into the weekend holding a $40 price tag, was reported to be selling for ridiculous amounts on the tourney floor and has gained $5 to $45 domestically as we wait to see how many copies make Top 8. Voldaren Pariah, the grindy flip creature making waves in the U/B Zombie lists has popped to $3 from $1. Kozilek’s Return has jumped to $10 from $6. Traverse the Ulvenwald looks set for a double up, moving from $2 to $4.

Ishkanah, Grafwidow and Prized Amalgam have also shown modest gains based on frequent camera time, though their ultimate fate this weekend has yet to be written in stone.

Follow along with us as we follow along with the final 5 rounds of constructed play before the cut to Top 8 and the establishment of the new Standard metagame.

Round 13 (7th Standard Round): LSV (Bant Company) vs. Reid Duke (RG Ramp)

Reid (11-1) is on track to make Top 8 with one more win today, and LSV (10-2) needs just two wins to make Day 3 for the third time in a row, the first time this has happened in a generation!

In Game 1 LSV misses a couple of land drops while Reid sets up shop on his ramp plan. Despite the fast takeoff, Reid draws hollow for a few turns, giving Luis too much time to get back in the game. A few value creatures, a Jace, and a Collected Company later, LSV is able to take Game 1.

In Game 2, Reid mulligans twice, but an early Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy from LSV is still answered by Kozilek’s Return, and the players trade threats and answers for a few turns as Reid achieves delirium. In the mid-game LSV adds a Tamiyo, Field Researcher to a crowded board to really start churning the value engine. At just four life Reid finally stabilizes with an Emrakul that wrecks most of the board for LSV. LSV manages a Selfless Spirit on his next turn, but the combination of Emrakul and Ishkanah (with her spiderling buddies) holds his attacks at bay. Soon after Luis is forced to Reflector Mage the Emrakul, allowing Reid to cast it again and take another bonus turn against his best interests. Facing certain doom, LSV top decks another copy of Tamiyo, tapped Emrakul and Ishkanah, attacks with his Sylvan Advocate, eats Reid’s remaining spider and finds himself just a bad top deck away from a win. Sure enough, Duke is unable to find a blocker and falls in two games to put both players one win away from the Top 8.

Round 13 (7th Standard Round): Lucas Blohan (WB Control) vs. Zen Takahashi (Naya Legends)

The innovative Naya Legends deck in the hands of Takahashi features Oath of Nissa, Hangarback Walker, Thalia’s Lancers, Nissa, Vastwood Seer, Evolutionary Leap, Linvala, the Preserver and a toolbox of interesting legendary creatures. Oddly, Takahashi just barely qualified for this Pro Tour via the GP in Australia last week, and here is in Top 8 contention. Off camera, Blohan takes Game 1.

Deck Tech: Esper Control (6-1 in Standard, out of contention on draft record)

4 Jace, 2 Gideon, 2 Sorin, Grim Nemesis, 1 Ob Nixilis
2 Descend Upon the Sinful, 3 Declaration in Stone, 2 Languish, 1 Anguished Unmaking
3 Transgress the Mind, 3 Clash of Wills, 1 Silumgar’s Command, 2 Ojutai’s Command
3 Fortune’s Favor, 3 Secure the Wastes, 2 Painful Truths
3 Westvale Abbey

Secure the Wastes and Fortune’s Favor singled out as crucial to the deck. At just $.05 picking up 20-40 copies of Fortune’s Favor could be an easy penny spec if enough players start testing Esper Control builds in the coming weeks.

Here are the top table standings after Round 13, with just three rounds left before the cut to Top 8.

With Owen, Reid, LSV, Sam Pardee, Jacob Wilson and the rest in contention, this Top 8 is looking likely to be epic. This crowd includes BG Delirium x2, Temur Emerge x2, BW Control, Bant Company.

Round 14: LSV (Bant Company) vs. Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge)

This match is a win and in for Top 8, and will result in a fantastic narrative regardless of who wins. Both guys come in 11-2. Owen is now within reach of Player of the Year, while LSV is looking to Top 8 for the third time in a row this year!

Game 1 is over quick as strong early pressure from LSV bumps up against an Elder Deep-Fiend, only to have Archangel Avacyn flash in on the end step to clinch the victory the following turn for Luis.

In Game 2, Owen is available to chain Gnarlwood Dryad into Deep Fiend, triggering a flashed back Kozilek’s Return and then on into an Emrakul. LSV is forced to spend his Tamiyo to keep Emrakul tapped down for a couple of turns. Chandra Flamecaller shows up alongside Emrakul, and the threat level is just too high for LSV to recover from. Tied at 1-1.

In Game 3, LSV leverages a Duskwatch Recruiter to overcome some land flood, and again makes excellent use of Tamiyo, Field Researcher to lock down key blockers and get in for the win. This almost certainly puts LSV into the Top 8 and breathes fresh life into Bant Company moving forward.

Round 14: Sam Pardee (BG Delirium) vs. Andrew Brown (Temur Emerge)

In Game 1 we arrive from off camera to find a Liliana emblem in play. Kozilek’s Return from Brown clears the zombie army, and allows him to take down Liliana. Pardee responds with Languish to clear all but a Deep Fiend from Brown. We miss the next several turns, but Pardee ends up winning with the ultimate emblem proving too much for Brown. Pardee also takes the match, butting BG Delirium into the Top 8.

Off camera, Reid Duke puts away Jacob Wilson to clinch Top 8 as well, meaning RG Ramp has a shot at the title as well.

Deck Tech: Jund Delirium (Simon Nielsen)

Running 3x Kozilek’s Return, 3x Traverse the Ulvenwald, just a single Emrakul. 2x Distended Mindbender. 3x Mindwrack Demon and 3x Lianna, the Last Hope. 3x Languish.

Round 15: Reid Duke (RG Ramp) vs. Takahashi (Bant Company)

Reid loses Game 1 quick to an explosive start from the CoCo mage. Reid loses Game 2 as well, butting Takahashi and the 2nd Bant Company deck into the Top 8.

Round 15: Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge) vs. Lukas Blohon (WB Control)

Owen needs to win this match or the next to make Top 8 and Player of the Year. Big money on the line here for the new Hall of Famer. Blohan takes Game 1 on the back of yet another Liliana emblem and puts Owen on the back foot. In Game 2 a pair of Transgress the Mind removes the relevant threats from Owen’s hand, and Blohon takes the match quickly to make Top 8 with BW Control. Owen must now win his final match to make Top 8 and win Player of the Year. Biggest pressure point of the season coming up next round.

On a back table Daniel Cathro has the UB Zombies dream still alive at 10-3-1, and is up a game against Temur Emerge/Thomas Hendriks. A Liliana emblem is in play and generating massive advantadge, and Cathro takes the match to gift himself with a win and in next round.

Jan Ksandr on Bant Spirits is also battling fellow 10-3-1 player Ken Yukihiro on GR Ramp, but the match goes to time, with both players due to miss Top 8 if they pick up the draw. Weaver of Lightning ends up winning the match on the back of a Tormenting Voice, removing a key blocker to allow the Japanese player to get it done and put a second G/R ramp deck into the Top 8. Kozilek’s Return, also featured in the Temur Emerge deck seems likely to hold near $10.

Round 16: Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge) vs. Daniel Cathro (UB Zombies)

Owen has it all on the line this round. Sadly for him, Game 1 sees first time Pro Tour participant Cathro return a Haunted Dead via a double Prized Amalgam discard to put four creatures into play, a move quickly followed up by a Liliana, the Last Hope. A couple of turns later Owen manages to go Pilgrim’s Eye into Wretched Griff to bring back Kozilek’s Return and clear the board at two life. A couple of turns later a similar pattern is demonstrated, and the players jockey for board position with Owen trying to hold down the looming zombie threats. Owen manages to stabalize on an Emrakul, but more Haunted Dead shenanigans into a Voldaren Pariah, clears much of the board on both sides. A Murderous Cut lurking in Cathro’s hand signals danger to Emrakul but Owen gets a full value Ishkanah into play. Cathro at 4 life, Owen still at 2 but Daniel can’t easily bypass the spider force. Owen alpha strikes with Emrakul and all his spiders, but Cathro pulls the trigger on the Murderous Cut on Emrakul, and sets up to get more zombies back with the players now tied at two life a piece. Owen manages an Elder Deep Fiend to pop another enhanced Kozilek’s Return, but Daniel works through two copies of Voldaren Pariah in response to end up with a big bad flyer on the table ready to strike by end of turn. Owen looks for a solution, comes up dry, and we move to Game 2 with Owen facing the loss of both Top 8 and Player of the Year.

Cathro mulligans into two lands and can’t find his third land. Owen gets Chandra Flamecaller into play and the pressure is real. Despite still being on two lands Haunted Dead comes back with a spirit and a Prized Amalgam and the team takes down Chandra. At ten lands to his opponent’s three, Owen chains Spiders into Eldrazi and earns his last chance at the best possible weekend.

Both players keep a full grip and the game pivots early when Owen casts Negate on the first copy of Liliana, the Last Hope. He then keeps the board stable for a few more turns, drops Emrakul, controls the next turn, and manages to snag victory out of the jaws of defeat one turn later. Huge congratulations to Owen Turtenwald for making the Hall of Fame, a fresh Pro Tour Top 8 AND Player of the Year all in one weekend. Temur Emerge earns another slot on Sunday, and puts Kozilek’s Return and Emrakul squarely in the spotlight. Side note: the UB Zombie build looks very hot indeed, and this won’t be the end of things for that archetype despite the loss.

Ken Yukihiro defeats Reid Duke in final turns for the second match in a row to make Top 8. Some of the best Pro Tour match play ever today, wow.

Top 8 Announcement

Sam Pardee (BG Delirium)
LSV (Bant Company)
Yuta Takahashi (Bant Company)
Lukas Blohon (BW Control)
Ken Yukihiro (GR Ramp)
Owen Turtenwald (Temur Emerge)
Reid Duke (GR Delirium Ramp)
Andrew Brown (Temur Emerge)

What a star studded Top 8, topping off an epic year of great Top 8s. Two Hall of Fame players. Sam Pardee and Reid Duke. Great players fill the rest of the bracket.

Relatively few Liliana, the Last Hope in the Top 8 in the end, with just BW Control and BG Delirium running the card. Kozilek’s Return and Emrakul however feature prominently in roughly half the decks. Elder Deep Fiend could show gains if it wins the whole thing. Bant Company still has a shot to take it all in the hands of red hot LSV.

The brackets look well balanced with no real blowouts set up to play out. Anyone could take this, but odds on favorites have to be the dominating Channel Fireball squad, with Reid Duke, LSV, and Owen looking set to have a west coast wizard take the tournament.

Tune in tomorrow for the final result of a great weekend of Magic!

Accumulated Knowledge

PROTRADER: PT:EMN Odds & Ends

August 5, 2016 Ross Lennon

Okay, so the timetable for this weekend is a little… wonky. Because the Pro Tour is being held on the lawless, marsupial-infested island of Australia, coverage is going to be starting Thursday night (in the US), with the constructed rounds happening while many of us are asleep. I’m going to include my brief thoughts on what I suspect we might see, while also touching on a (semi-related) point that may offer more long-term action. Then, if I need to pad my word count, we’ll talk about The Bachelorette or something.

I really wanted this guy to show up at Jordan's final rose ceremony. — I really wanted this guy to show up at Jordan’s final rose ceremony.

PT: EMN: Even though we have had some pretty major changes to set releases and rotations, the timeline for Pro Tour technology has sneakily stayed pretty consistent since the adoption of the SCG Tour. Prior to having SCGLive on screen the day after a set release, there weren’t major Standard events before the Pro Tour. Now, however, we have two weeks worth of decklists to inform our decisions on the weekend ahead- but how reliable is that data? In this particular instance, I would guess that Bant Company will be an influencial archetype on the weekend metagame, but not in the way you might expect.

The spectrum of skill on the Pro Tour has traditionally been pretty wide (although I suspect the new qualifier system will raise the floor), but the top end is always “the best active players in the world”. Those participants at the high end have been working on Standard for a while, and probably “discovered” Spell Queller as early as anyone else. As a result, it is not crazy to suspect that these players have found the best decks for beating things like Bant Company (what I suspect is probably the best Spell Queller deck, just because it makes the best use of its other resources). Furthermore, these players are disincentivized from playing in early events like Opens because the maximum payout is so severely less than at the Pro Tour, while simultaneously giving all the other PT participants valuable information a week early.

All that holding true, it’s safe to say that the best players at the Pro Tour will only be playing a deck like Bant Company if either of the following are correct:

Bant Company is literally the best deck in the format to the extent that there are NO other decks. Like, we are talking CawBlade/Ravager Affinity level good. I suspect that this is not true.
There is a version of Bant Company that beats all of the other versions AND operates on a significantly different axis that it is able to either ignore or counter the traditional answers to Bant Company. This would be a scenario where it’s “Well, the decks playing [CARDNAME] Bant are performing at X%, while all of the non-[CARDNAME] versions are only performing at Y%!”. I don’t suspect this is the case either, just because Collected Company doesn’t have any other modes, and it’s unlikely that this is a yet-to-be-discovered package of cards that are good in Company decks. The best thing I could come up with on my own would be some number of Force Spike effects as a means of blanking Languish? But that lowers your critical mass of Company creatures, and yeah, I just don’t think this happens.

It’s important to remember that that’s only regarding a very narrow band of the PT participants. There are still going to be people there who are not on world-class teams or have spent a month in a beach house tuning various strategies. There was a sentiment once that you had to be able to beat the Red Deck at a Pro Tour, but only on Day 1- I suspect that the players who would otherwise be playing Red will bring Bant Company this time. The players with the least preparation and connections will play what they deem to be the de facto best deck, since it is proactive and offers a clear and coherent strategy (whether they realize that or not). Then, there is the larger contingent of players in the middle (the “Jimmy Eat World” subset, if you will). These are the players who would be more likely to bring a deck like Bant Company in the first place. Some of them will likely hit on the next level strategy (“what beats Bant?”), but without quality team infrastructure, likely won’t get much higher on the archetype chain than that.

Unless a lot of really famous Magic players have ugly Day 1 Drafts, expect to see a lot of Languish on Day 2. Remember that the “breakout” GB strategy of the last format premiered in the hands of Jon Finkel (a deck that was never quite as good after that weekend, but for Jon it didn’t really have to be).

The only other strategy that I’m keeping my eyes peeled for is some form of Cryptolith Rite.dec. That’s another deck that didn’t show up until PT:SOI, but had much stronger legs going into the rest of the Standard season. The reason I suspect we didn’t see it any yet is that the Rites strategies all require a significant amount of tuning in the deck construction process (especially in the versions with multiple other colors). While most people playing in the Opens didn’t have the time to commit to developing a new Rites deck, people like Matt Nass (the deck’s originator) certainly did. It’s possible that some version of the deck shows up and plays spoiler this weekend, but I suspect that most of what is good against Bant Company is also good against any of the Rite decks.

Look for GB and UB control to be popular on Day 2.

The Left Behind: If I asked you to name the five most expensive cards in Khans of Tarkir, you’d probably settle pretty quickly on the five fetchlands (you’d be correct). Now, assuming we lumped that cycle together as one card, could you name the rest of the top three? The answer stunned me when I saw it. Sorin, Solemn Visitor at ~$6.50, followed by Clever Impersonator at ~$3.25. Beyond Clever Impersonator, every remaining rare or mythic in KTK costs less than $3. In fact, the majority of the rares in the set can be obtained for fewer than 100 Puca Points.

Fate Reforged hasn’t fared much better. The only two cards that clear the $3 mark are Ugin, the Spirit Dragon and Monastery Mentor. Soulfire Grand Master and Tasigur, the Golden Fang (in that order) hover just below $3, while every other rare and mythic are half as much or less.

My immediate thought is that you should look to get your Monastery Mentors right now. Ugin is good in situational spots, but Mentor is a named strategy in Legacy and Vintage. Now that these sets are out of Standard, their pricing models are beginning to resemble Dragon’s Maze- making Mentor the closest corollary to Voice of Resurgence. My second thought is that the heavy supply, matched with a lack of overall larger application, is going to be crushing a lot of card values after rotation. This is a good chance to buy in if you think something has a good shot long term, but know that pretty much anything that doesn’t have a home will crash.

Journey into Nyx actually did pretty well, with 8 cards clearing the $3 threshold (including Godsend?!), and the gods pretty much ended up propping up that entire block. I suspect KTK, Origins, and the Battle for Zendikar block won’t do as well. This really could just be another aspect of the new world we are living in.

UPDATE: So Standard at PT:EMN started around 1am EST. James has a great write-up of what’s happened so far, so make sure you follow him for the rest of the event. Looks like Emrakul is back!

Best,

Ross

Casual Fridays

Liberation

August 4, 2016 Cliff Daigle 3 Comments

I don’t have a lot of spare time. Maybe you do, perhaps you have hours you’re willing to wile away in endless pursuits of things that consume your time.

I don’t have a lot of extra space. Maybe you do, you might be living over your own personal Batcave, walls and racks of neatly organized cards.

I’m going to share with you a viewpoint that is going to cause some controversy, and why I’m wrong, and yet why I’m right.

I’ve stopped keeping cards after Draft and Sealed events, except for all rares and a select few uncommons. I find a kid at the store, or I leave them in a pile. I don’t want any more commons. I don’t want to sort cards. I don’t want to keep them in a box for years. I don’t want to hope that one day, these will be $2 uncommons.

Right now, at the same time, I’m sending out commons and uncommons from old sets on PucaTrade.

These two viewpoints might seem in direct opposition. I’m currently mining my old draft chaff for money commons and uncommons (good lord, did I draft a lot of Hedron Crabs and Blighted Agents!) but I’m not keeping them now? What gives?

I am going to walk you through what makes an old common/uncommon worth something, and why I think almost nothing in the modern day is worth it.

Criteria #1: Unique mechanic/keyword

For an older common or uncommon to make it to a $2 retail price, a lot of things have to go right. The first of them is that people have to want it years after it was printed. Very few commons and uncommons have enough power to be worth it.

Hedron Crab is worth it. Steppe Lynx is not. Both of these are one-drops with awesome landfall. I realize that the Crab is uncommon while the Lynx is a common, but it’s twenty cents vs. $3.50. The difference is that there will always be a place for milling someone out of the game, and just attacking for four on turn two is so boring. Lynx even sees more tournament play, but every casual player who sees the Crab, well, their eyes light up and their mind gets blown.

Criteria #2: Age/supply and reprints

Let’s face it: the game has grown enormously since Zendikar. It’s grown a whole lot even since New Phyrexia. There are tons and tons more packs opened in the present day, and while I wish I could give you exact numbers, I can’t. I know that every year, Wizards has bragged that the big Fall set was the best-selling set ever, and while I’m not sure how the new two-block model is going to fit in, that’s a lot of growth over five to seven years. We know that in talking to investors, there’s percentages of growth thrown around each year, but that’s inexact. So I’m not going to try and pull real numbers out, I’m content to say that the game is a lot bigger.

The simple truth is that there’s a lot less of older cards around, but I’m not even talking older as in Odyssey, I mean even Scars of Mirrodin block. The 6:2:1 model also applies, making third-set cards especially in demand sometimes.

Here’s an example: Stasis Snare vs. Journey to Nowhere vs. Silkwrap. The Journey is a whole white mana cheaper, and that’s big, big, super important. Removal used to be a lot stronger, and now we get conditional where it used to be universal. Silkwrap is interesting, as it got up to $3 at one point but now it’s back to a dollar.

Reprints are another big factor in a card’s price. Let’s look at the graph for Worn Powerstone:

It was in Urza’s Saga, and then one duel deck in 2010 (right at Magic’s renaissance) and it was $5, until it got three years straight of reprints: Commander 2014, 2015, and then Eternal Masters. Even with all that, the original is still $2 and in case you didn’t know, I love picking up the foil in the $12 range. Very safe and it’s got excellent growth potential.

Criteria #3: Powerful then and now, high demand

Finally, a card has to be good. Not just good. Great. Interestingly, removal spells aren’t always in this category, though Lightning Bolt is fascinating. Thirteen printings (with three of those having foil versions, two different promos, a range of arts!) and it was almost always a common!

I’m willing to listen to discussions about the most printed cards to keep a price, I think this is #1 on the list. It’s good, it’s cheap, it’s versatile. This is what I use to determine if I should keep an uncommon or common at the end of a draft.

So with this in mind, what am I keeping after a draft?

Duskwatch Recruiter: Could have been a rare easily, great on either side.

Erdwal Illuminator: Unique effect, will spike when they use Investigate again.

Geistblast: It’s a Fork stapled to a Shock. Gotta love it.

Graf Mole: Cheap and good blocker.

Heir of Falkenrath: cheap and aggressive, not as good for discarding as Oona’s Prowler but unique.

Lambholt Pacifist: Proven as a cheap and big creature.

Neglected Heirloom: I’m betting on casual Werewolf decks here.

Rise From the Tides: Huge payoff for spell-based decks.

Geist of the Archives: Good blocker and very relevant ability.

Graf Rats/Midnight Scavengers: I love all the Meld cards, long term. When are they going to have a chance to do these again?

Haunted Dead: Two-for-one on one creature that can bring itself back at instant speed.

Lone Rider: Lifegain decks are going to love this jerk.

Noose Constrictor: It’s going to be a $2 uncommon in six months.

Weaver of Lightning: Nothing else does this, so I’m interested.

That’s pretty much it. I don’t bother with anything else anymore, because the time and energy of sorting and storage aren’t worth it for me. Today’s sets aren’t going to be rare enough to be worth it in six years. And even if they are, and I find myself paying $10 for a set of Thermo-Alchemist, then I’ll think about sorting a 5000-count box and sifting through and thinking “Man, I’m glad I didn’t waste the time and energy.”

Jason Alt

From the Vault: Random Stuff Laying Around

August 4, 2016 Jason Alt 2 Comments

The new FTV is out and it’s… full of cards? I don’t know, what do you want me to say about it? Usually they have a theme and this has to be the loosest possible theme ever. Literally anything could be in FTV: Lore. There’s lore behind Joven’s Ferrets and those have never been foil. The worst part is there are going to be people who wanted the lore they like in here and it didn’t make the cut. “No Helvault? This is bullshit” I’m sure at least one person has said. Can you imagine? Everyone thinks the stupid lore crap they like is the most important which is why doing this particular FTV is bound to be fraught. The people who don’t give a hot fart about lore won’t care about the flavor of the junk you jam in here, we’ll just be upset that we’re paying our LGS $80 for a set that has Near-Death Experience in it. The people who give all of the farts (of every temperature) about the lore are going to be upset that you didn’t include Argus Kos, Wojek Veteran because they were reading the Ravnica book the first time they touched a pair of boobs or whatever reason people get nostalgiac for M:tG Lore.

Luckily, we have additional metrics for judging the success or failure of FTV sets apart from “Do we care about cards with terrible foiling?” and “Do we care about Vorthos crap?” and that is “dollar sign question mark” which is all we should be caring about. Should I write this article with at least a bit of an eye toward EDH? I guess, sure. Fine. I can’t imagine writing this from an EDH perspective without a finance bent and I can’t imagine writing this from a finance perspective and being entirely agnostic to EDH. Either approach is going to result in roughly the same article, anyway. Let’s just talk about these stupid cards and get it over with, shall we? I mean, I’m getting it over with, You’re being entertained and educated so I guess you’re trying to savor this experience. Just remember this took hours to write and will take minutes to read. What do you care about? EDH playability? Accessibility? Finance? I’ll try to talk about everything I think is relevant. Let’s light this candle.

Cabal Ritual

Traditionally, FTV printings tend to affect the non-foil price way more than the foil price, especially if no foil was available before. This is a $1 card with a $13 foil and I don’t see a garbage, curly FTV foil dragging the foil price down a ton when it’s hardly a credible alternative. People who like foil cards do so because they like the best version of the card and an FTV foil hardly qualifies. I imagine the FTV foil doesn’t do much to the foil price. If this had never been foil before, this would be closer to Hymn to Tourach but even then we got a set foil very soon after and people couldn’t wait to not have to play it.

Cabal Ritual has a good foil already and there’s not much reason to expect the FTV version, even for people who prefer the new art, to replace them. If anything, this is close to Kird Ape which had been foil once before. We don’t have pricing data that goes back that far but assuredly, the FTV foil wasn’t a threat the the 9th Edition version.

Especially not long-term.

Ultimately I think the foil may get dinged a few bucks but will go back up, unless we get a reprinting of Cabal Therapy in a future set that doesn’t have FTV foiling. If it has this same new art, all bets are off. For now, I don’t expect much movement, nor for EDH players to care much.

Conflux

This is a different ballgame. EDH players are less antagonistic toward FTV foils than Legacy players, especially given the fact that sometimes FTV or Commander’s Arsenal foils are the only foils we have. That’s not the case here with Conflux foils fetching $15, which is a decent multiplier for such a weird card. I think the $15 price tag of the foil could take a minor hit and I bet a lot of the new foil Confluxes end up in decks and may keep the price from recovering. This saw a bump in Legacy Dream Halls a while back and that obscures the price a bit. I think it’s possible that new supply could reveal that there’s not as much demand as anticipated, although Conflux is getting a decent amount of play in EDH per EDHREC.

A good corollary is a recent FTV card from the same set and same price point, though a different rarity, something there being a set proportion of FTV cards smooths out a bit.

I’d compare Conflux to Martial Coup, though Coup’s drop is obscured by Commander 2014 and FTV: Annihilation reprinting the card twice within months of each other. You see the big hit to the non-foil price, so let’s see what happened to the foil price since C14 didn’t do any of that.

No change. You’d swear FTV Annihilation never even came out in August 2014. That’s something to bear in mind. It did seem to reverse some growth and hurt the long-term prospects of the set foil despite being a garbage FTV foil, though, so if you have money tied up in foil Conflux, maybe get out, though it seems like you have some time.

Dark Depths

This won’t do as much as we want, I fear. This may give some people a chance to buy a $58 card at MSRP if they’re very lucky, a set with a $58 card in it plus some other cards for like $80 in a lot more cases and could see people upgrade to a foil affordably. At $215, the Dark Depths foil is sure to take a bit of a hit, or a big one. The FTV foil is obviously less desirable. This is the money shot for this FTV so let’s really try and accurately predict what this will do.

This is an awkward corollary. FTV: Realms came out in August of 2012 where I drew the arrow, but demand in Modern Tron that people didn’t anticipate when Punishing Fire was banned saw this card still being purchased 4 copies at a time. I don’t see Dark Depths maintaining the same insane growth curve as Grove, but this does show how little of an effect the FTV can have on price if there is sufficient demand. I think the FTV copies can smooth out the growth curve of Dark Depths and dampen it a bit but the copies won’t be enough to hold the card back if it continues to be as good a card. Banning it in Modern attenuated its price to a great extent and Modern demand ultimately made it go nuts, something I’m less convinced will happen to Dark Depths with demand from Legacy and EDH, 1-of formats for the most part.

Again, the FTV printing barely had an effect, although Ancient Tomb was a sleeper in Legacy (which was weird because City of Traitors spiked twice in the time Tomb was doing nothing). It could be argued the FTV printing delayed its price explosion, but demand couldn’t be staved off for long. I think we could see Dark Depths’ price flatten a bit, but ultimately I think another reprinting in another venue will be needed.

Glissa, the Traitor

$3 card with an $11 foil? Seems pretty straightforward. This should attenuate but not entirely inhibit growth. Douglas Johnson cares a lot about this but I don’t expect anyone else to. They didn’t even give it new art.

Helvault

Wait, Helvault IS in this set? Gross. I was just making a joke earlier about how Vorthos people care about dumb cards like this. You know what? I’m leaving it. I don’t care if it makes me look dumb for reading the list of cards in this set and forgetting I saw Helvault in it and then making a joke about how Helvault wasn’t in it. That’s how little I care about a $0.60 card with a $2 foil that’s getting a printing with a bad foiling process that no one will care about.

Memnarch

$8 card despite an Archenemy printing? $30 foil? Popular EDH General? It’s going to be tough to find a corollary for this to predict what will happen. Even with a whole FTV: Legends to look at, are there any cards around $8 with 2 non-foil printings and 2 foil printings? I guess the best we can do is look at what FTV: Legends did to $8-$10 cards that were growing steadily before the FTV.

Oona was still growing after the FTV printing and it only fell off with its reprinting in Modern Masters. The foil took a hit from Modern Masters, also.

Oona cost roughly the same as Memnarch does now right after her FTV printing and while I don’t have data, I can speculate the numbers were very similar. Modern Masters brough Oona’s price down in a way the FTV didn’t seem to be able to. Oona might have stayed an $8 card with a $30 foil even after FTV if not for Modern Masters, so I think Memnarch’s price will remain relatively stable.

Mind’s Desire

A bulk rare with an 18x multiplier? Have we seen something like that in a previous FTV set? How about Upheaval? Bulk rare, $15 foil, small amount of demand from cube weirdos. What did the FTV do to that price?

It reversed some modest growth on the non-foil (I’m not sure what the growth was predicated on, honestly).

It likely held back a little growth in the foil, though it’s obscured by some shenanigans. Honestly, foil Upheaval is going in cubes and cube players don’t want an ugly FTV foil if they can avoid it. I think Mind’s Desire likely has the same fate, although maybe Mizzix or something goofy like that wants it in EDH? I think Mind’s Desire likely has a similar trajectory as we saw with Upheaval. Mind’s Desire isn’t banned in EDH the way Upheaval is, and that helps, but otherwise the cards are eerily similar.

Momir Vig

Momir has new art and all bets are off. If the card sits in your Command Zone the FTV foiling process is less worrying and the new art could see Momir players upgrading.

Momir was seeing very positive trending and his plateau preceded his annoucement in FTV: Lore so I imagine it could reverse itself a bit, although I’m not sure. The new and different art is a bit of a game-changer. Nothing in FTV:Legends quite compares but let’s take a look.

Rafiq more then recovered from its lowest point on our graph, which was months after FTV: Legends came out. The set foil is a bit above where it was also, but not a ton. I feel like the new art may have helped Rafiq out and I predict pretty similar price trajectories for Momir based on what we saw for Rafiq.

Near-Death Experience

Bulk gets bulkier. I want to like this card but can’t, even in a pillowfort deck with Worship.

Obliterate

If I had to guess, the Invasion version is so much more expensive than the 8th edition version is someone guessed people hated white borders and they bought out TCGPlayer and the other dealers updated their prices because they do it with an automatic algorithm instead of a human brain which lets this stuff happen. Whatever the case, this is a $4 card in my view and the FTV won’t change that given how much price shock can be absorbed by a lot of copies floating around and this being the third time they printed the card foil. 8th foils have a black border, also, so any appeal Invasion has over 8th for non-foils is gone. Ultimately, this won’t matter.

Phyrexian Processor

This has never been foil before! Too bad no one plays it in anything.

Tolaria West

$8 uncommon with a $25 foil. This card is going to be tough to nail down, but if I had to guess, I’d predict price drops for both and the plateau in the price means that demand needs to catch up to supply before the price moves, and additional supply will only put that day off.

If the price dips for Tolaria West the way it did for Dryad Arbor, I think you want to buy in. Arbor isn’t played nearly as much as it used to be and its price is nutty. With Tolaria West able to tutor for 0 cost stuff it will always have a place in the game and barring another reprinting, I think it’s a solid pickup if it drops. For reference, here’s the foil trajectory for Arbor, also.

Demand overall is clearly up, so if Tolaria West’s FTV graph looks like this did at the beginning then tanks, buy at the floor, clearly. Tolaria West is a good card and it’s only getting better as more people find uses for it in Modern.

Umezawa’s Jitte

Jammed in a $12 precon, reprinted as a GP foil, banned in Modern – nothing can hold this card down. I don’t think the ugly FTV foil will hurt this card much and there won’t be a ton of demand for the ugly FTV foils. Could the $240 set foils suffer? They could, a bit. Foil Jitte is out of proportion with non-foil Jitte because the precon copies diluted the number of total copies a bit which explains the multiplier. This is a Legacy and cube and EDH staple and the price will go up over time unless they keep reprinting it. I don’t see this dipping much even in the short term, but if it does, there’s opportunity there.

Unmask

A $4 card with $30 card seems like the exact profile of a card that an FTV printing won’t do much to. The non-foil can’t go down much more and the foil is clearly demanded by people who will pay extra for a nice foil and don’t care about an ugly FTV foil. I imagine the FTV one ends up almost exactly the same price as the non-foil and that’s all I have to say about that.

Well, that’s all. Come back next week, I guess.

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