Hey, guys, my name is Eric. Look, this is a little bit awkward. I got a Skype call from Ryan, Marcel and Jason this week and they said “Don’t do regular show notes, instead tell everyone we’re doing a vote to see if Corbin is getting kicked off of the podcast.” They insisted they were serious but it sounded like they had all been drinking. I heard what I assume was Ryan and Jason high-fiving each other. I tried calling them back to see if they were really serious and they’re not picking up. I have like 10 minutes for them to get back to me before I have to submit the shownotes and if I don’t hear different, they’re going out like this. Anyway, if this was a prank and the guys get a lot of e-mails saying to kick Corbin off the cast, this wasn’t my fault. I’m just a guy helping out for a chunk of the Patreon money. If you’re reading this, they never got back to me, or I guess they were serious when they said to do the show notes like this. Either way, I really hope I don’t get fired, this wasn’t my fault. – Eric, the show notes guy

Are you sick of Corbin Hosler? Here’s your chance! If you don’t want him on the cast anymore, e-mail brainstormbrew@gmail.com. If you say something that is funny, not mean-spirited and is readable on the cast, we may read a few.

I don’t feel good about this, but I bet no one reads shownotes anyway and we’ll be fine. – Eric

Corbin is missing. We assume an old country road, a dog and a pikcup truck is involved.
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Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar: Day 1 Coverage

October 16, 2015 James Chillcott 6 Comments

The stage is set for a weekend of epic card battles. Despite a fairly muted response to the constructed playable cards of Battle for Zendikar, we find ourselves facing down a neatly refreshed metagame with multiple viable archetypes. After weeks of secretive testing, the top Magic teams on the planet have gathered for another epic battle between top Magic: The Gathering pros from across the globe. Over $250,000 USD is on the line, with the winner taking home a hefty $40,000 after three days of intense competition in in Milwaukee Wisconsin, USA.

As per usual, the Pro Tour weekends now feature a mix of booster draft (BFZ-BFZ-BFZ) and constructed formats with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 4-5pm EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the big question on all of our minds is whether any new cards from Battle for Zendikar will buck the trends of the first two major SCG Open tournaments of the season, and burst into the spotlight in Standard to push our recent specs into profitability. Will an overlooked card from the last block suddenly become key tech? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

With the Expedition lands suppressing the price of the rest of the cards in Battle for Zendikar, the conditions are right for some big spikes this weekend, though no-shows will find their prices undercut even further.

Many of the top teams have been in stealth mode for the last couple of weeks, furtively holed up in chilly northern hotels and AirBnB pads, attempting to break a format open that has stubbornly clustered around Jeskai Black, G/W Megamorpth & Ataraka Red thus far.

Pre-Game Top 8 Contenders

The early weeks of the new Standard format have demonstrated a fairly limited number of Tier 1 strategies that have a chance at dominance this weekend:

Jeskai Black
G/W Megamorph
Atarka Red

The most popular Tier 2 strategies to date have included:

Abzan Aggro
Abzan Control
Golgari/Jund Aristocrats
G/W Hardened Scales

With all of the testing this week there’s also the distinct possibility that this weekend will mark the debut of a sweet new brew, with my bet being on either an Eldrazi Ramp strategy or a B/W Mid-Range build leveraging Wasteland Strangler to emerge from the pack . With Standard starting before most of us are home from work, the stage is set for first mover advantage if an unexpected deck jumps out to an early lead in the hands of a reliable pilot. Which deck are you rooting for?

Cards to Watch

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar: Don’t Underestimate The General

28 of the top 32 decks at the SCG Open in Atlanta last weekend featured white cards, a color that has long been thought to be underpowered in Standard. With 4-of appearances in the winning G/W Megamorph deck and the 4th place Jeskai Black deck, as well as 3-of usage in the 5th place Bant Megamorph deck and the 7th place Jeskai Dragons. Facing peak supply, Gideon is still holding the top price tag in his set, and at $32 could easily pop above $40 if he wins big this weekend.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger: Is Ramp Real?

No one is denying that Ulamog is one of the most powerful things to be doing in a deck that wants to ramp. The problem thus far has been that most decks have cheaper options to put away the game in Dragonmaster Atarka, Silumgar the Drifting Death or Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. With a fast, grindy format expected, the appearance of a strong ramp strategy may be an outside shot, but at $13, there is certainly upside if our tentacled overlord makes a strong showing.

Jace, Vrin’s Prodigy: Set to Dominate?

Once an underestimated $10 pre-order, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy has now blown through the ceiling for a Standard legal mythic, spiking towards $80 before falling back to $65 recently. Mostly being used in the various Jeskai builds at the top tables, Jace’s price direction coming out of the weekend should depend on whether he makes the Top 8. A miss could easily see the card fall back to $50-55, which a strong showing like SCG Atlanta could easily drive a fresh spike in the $5-10 range. As a strong believer in the future of Jace in older formats, I am actively looking for an entry point under $50.

Oblivion Sower: The Ramp Enabler?

No one denies that the creature is powerful, and fooling around with exile effects certainly brings some popular side benefits, but we’re still waiting for a viable ramp strategy to show that it can hold back the early aggro decks for a long enough to set up camp. So far, nothing exciting has emerged, so this could be a card set to sink yet further coming out of the weekend.

Wasteland Strangler: 2nd Coming of Flametongue Kavu?

With Hangarback Walker being played everywhere coming out of late summer, the format has shifted to a preference for exile effects, with cards like Silkwrap, Complete Disregard and Utter End seeing increased play. Consequently, the stage is set for this dangerous creature to find a home in a B/W Tempo Deck similar to the one I’ve been testing lately with exile effects, Drana, Gideon, Seeker of the Way, Sorin and Wingmate Roc. Being able to kill an early threat, and then take out a Deathmist Raptor or Mantis Rider should not be underestimated, and at just $.40, I’d love to see a big pro give me a reason to go deep on this portable 2-for-1.

Dragonlord Ojutai: Time to Flee?

Despite my misgivings in late summer, Ojutai has managed to find a second spike in the $30 range, and is now sliding back toward $25 on lessened play facing a metagame full of sacrifice effects, led by Crackling Doom out of the Jeskai Black decks. If that trend continues I would expect to see limited play from the Azorious Dragonlord this weekend, and a further slide back toward $20.

Here are some other interestingly cheap cards, that could spike hard on unexpected strong play this weekend:

Demonic Pact ($2.50): The Demonic Pact decks have been hovering in the shadows, waiting to pounce once someone figures out the right build to leverage the extreme card advantage inherent to the archetype. As a mythic from Magic Origins, the card could pop hard if anyone ever figures it out.
Lilianna, Heretical Healer ($15): The nasty necromancer hasn’t found a strong home yet, but could be a key component in a rebuild of the GB Aristocrats decks that have been squeezing a few copies into the Top 32 of early tournaments. Smothering Abomination, sitting under $.50, could also pop if this deck does well.
Jeskai Ascendancy: This formerly dominant Standard player has been sidelined for months at $0.75, but could be primed to bounce back on a good showing from Jeskai Tokens decks.

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour Magic Origins all weekend!

Round 4 (1st Round of Constructed)

Gabriel Nassif (GB Aristocrats) vs Frank Karsten (Atarka Red)
Martin Dang (Jeskai Tokens) vs Joel Larsson (Jeskai Tokens)

Both of these recent Pro Tour winners are on a Jeskai Ascendancy build with Gideon, leveraging a pile of tokens via Goblin Fodder and Hordeling Outburst to try and go wide on opponents.Jace is also present in both decks. The players split the first two games.

Antonio Del Moral Leon (Esper Dragons) vs Yuta Takahashi (Abzan Control)

Deck Tech #1: Adrian Sullivan on Esper Demonic Pact Control

This card leverages Demonic Pact via Disperse, Silumgar’s Command and Utter End. Also runs a bunch of Esper Dragons style control cards.

Round 5: (2nd Round of Constructed)

Gerry Thompson (Mardu Dragons) vs. Paul Cheon (Naya Megamorph)

Thompson is running Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker alongside a full grip of Thunderbreak Regents. Cheon’s deck makes user of Hangarback Walker, Nissa, Gideon, Dromoka’s Command and Wingmate Roc. Cheon takes the first game on the back of multiple Rocs.

Jon Stern (Atarka Red) vs. Marcos Paylo De Jesus Freitas (Naya Eldrazi)

In Game 1, Marcos fails to ramp in time to stem the aggressive tide from Jon Stern.

Owen Turtenwald (Dark Jeskai) vs. Makihito Mihara (Blue Abzan)

Owen is on a fairly familiar Jeskai Black build, while Mihara is playing Treasure Cruise alongside the usual Abzan cards. Owen takes Game 1 down with the help of Jace recursion on Roast. Mihara bounces back to take game 2. Mihara steals a noteable Dragonmaster Outcast with Exert Influence in Game 3. Mihara also running a miser Bring to Light, and manages to take the match.

Deck Tech #2: Dan Ward on Temur/Jeskai Dragons

This deck features:

4 Beastcaller Savant
4 Rattleclaw Mystic
4 Mantis Rider
3 Savage Knuckblade
4 Woodland Wanderer
4 Thunderbreak Regent
4 Icefall Regent
4 Draconic Roar
2 Jeskai Charm
2 Stubborn Denial

Round 6: (3rd Round of Constructed)

Oliver Polak-Rottman (Esper Control 5-0) vs. Jacob Wilson (Dark Jeskai 5-0)

Wilson takes the match 2-0 to advance to 6-0 as Oliver resigns from the match in frustration after a misplay.

Christian Calcano (UB Aristocrats) vs. Peter Vieren (Esper Control)

Calcano takes down his match with his innovative color shifted version of Aristocrats.

Makihito Mihara (Blue Abzan) vs. Owen Turtenwald (Dark Jeskai)

Mihara’s innovative Abzan build splashes blue for Jace, Everywhere Prodigy and Treasure Cruise. Turtenwald is on a fairly standard Dark Jeskai build, leveraging Crackling Doom and Tasigur for value. The match was a grindy and technical affair, but Mihara managed to come out on top after three.

Deck Tech #3: G/W Megamorph

Michael Majors is showing off his updated build of the expected G/W Megamorph deck.

Round 7: (4th Round of Constructed)

Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa (7-0, Atarka Red) vs. Yuta Takahashi (7-0 Abzan Aggro)

Both builds were fairly well known here. PVD takes it down 2-1.

Round 8: (5th Round of Constructed)

Magnus Lantto (Esper Planeswalkers) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)

Lantto’s deck represents a revised version of earlier Esper Dragons control builds, with Ob Nixilis, Reignited and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar standing in for the cards no one wants to lose to Crackling Doom or Foul Tongue Invocation this weekend. Tamada chose to eschew a 4th color alongside his streamlined Jeskai build, looking to ensure that Jeskai Charm could consistently push through the final points of damage. The strategy paid off again here, with Tamada taking the match in two games, and leaving him at 7-1 on the day.

At the end of Day 1, only Eric Severson remains undefeated, with his Jeskai Black build.

Our Day 1 Metagame breakdown looks as follows (% of field in brackets):

Atarka Red: 14.4%
Dark Jeskai: 13.90%
Green-White Megamorph: 10.90%
Esper Dragons: 6.30%
Abzan: 4.90%
Esper Control: 4.10%
Red-Green Landfall: 3.80%
Blue Abzan: 3.00%
Naya Megamorph: 3.00%

Though the three decks with the best records in recent weeks occupy our top slots and make up a full 40% of the metagame, the field is still relatively wide open with more than 20 distinct deck types representing at least 1% of the field. This likely indicates that team testing resulted in no certain feel for the best deck in the format, and a relative lack of reliable trumps against a field full of diverse threats and answers. In such a format we can likely expect to see both skill and experience contribute strongly to our winner.

Full details on the metagame can be found here.

Join us at 11am Saturday for Day 2 coverage of Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar MTGO Coverage

October 16, 2015 Guo Heng Chin

By: Guo Heng

The quarterly mtgfinance event that is the Pro Tour is upon us again this Friday. This weekend will see the best players and brewers in the world congregate at Milwaukee to duke it out for the spoils of Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar. Fall Pro Tours often are a little more exciting than the other Pro Tours, showcasing the secrets of the overhauled Standard metagame (the summer Pro Tours would be equally exciting from next year onwards as the twice-a-year rotation schedule kicks in).

Every Pro Tour has never failed to move prices of new and sometimes old cards wildly. The price for Abbot of Keral Keep, Exquisite Firecraft, and Hangarback Walker spiked hard and fast during Pro Tour Magic Origins as some of the most omnipresent cards in the top 8. Even Temple of Epiphany, which was about to rotate out, experienced a 200% surge in value. Pro Tours are the best time for short-term bets.

I usually make paper bets for Pro Tours, but for Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar, I would be solely speccing on Magic Online. Life is a little like Magic. Sometimes unexpected events happen occur that forces you to change plans you’ve had for the next few ~~turns~~ months. In my case, I stumbled upon this little creature on the roadside early last month, and decided to adopt him. It turns out that vet trips, blood tests and vaccinations costs a lot more than I expected, and they kind of ate into my budget for Battle for Zendikar.

I have to make the decision with my remaining budget to either retool my decks(s) for the new Standard metagame with the new lands required to make it function. With a couple of PPTQs coming up and the Game Day next weekend, I decided to spend my remaining budget on assembling my battle lands instead. So it looks like I will be keeping a close tab on the price of cards on MTGO for Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar.

A little tangent here: as I’ve mentioned, acquiring land base is often best done after the Pro Tour as the rare lands would drop in price as supply of the new set increases every week. The downside, if you are a competitive player, is of course having to play with suboptimal manabase for nearly a month. Thankfully it looks like most decks can get away with one or two copies of each battle lands, just like what Modern decks do with shock lands. Keep that in mind if you’re acquiring your battle lands now.

Let’s get going. The first round of Standard (Round 4) at the Pro Tour is coming to a conclusion and we are getting a taste of the new Standard metagame. Our very own James Chillcott (@MTGCritic) is doing the main coverage of the event itself, do check it out to keep up to date with the latest developments at the Pro Tour. I would be focusing primarily on the price movement of cards on Magic Online and would only be touching on the event itself lightly.

I would be using the pricing and charts on both goatbots.com and the aggregate from mtgowikiprice.com.

Round One

Here’s a snapshot of the most expensive cards in Battle for Zendikar on Magic Online:

End of Round 1, 2.50pm CDT — End of round one, 2.50pm CDT

Unsurprisingly Gideon, Ally of Zendikar has been the most expensive card online Battle for Zendikar went live. Oblivion Sower has been a mover over the past few days, eventually overtaking Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger as the second most expensive card in the set.

It may be Pro Tour testing, or perhaps brewer extraordinaire and Saito has something up his sleeves, but it looks like Oblivion Sower is unlikely to shine at the Pro Tour after all. There are only five Eldrazi ramp decks out of the pool of 367 decks at the Pro Tour. I am not too keen on Oblivion Sower at double-digit price and I think it may be dropping soon if we don’t see any Eldrazi action on camera, and I think chances are slim that we will.

Round Two

Don’t expect the prices of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar (35 tickets) and Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy (58 tickets) to tank online anytime soon.

Two top tier players on coverage for round five. Turtenwald is on Dark Jeskai while Mihara is on Blue Abzan (or rather, Wet Abzan). Both decks run Jace. We know at least that Mihara runs Gideon. It looks like Mihara is doing the Jund by mashing up all the best and most expensive cards into a box and call it a deck.

Exert Influence (0.49 tickets) is popping up in Mihara’s sideboard and Dan Ward’s deck tech (also in the side. James’ coverage article has the decklist). Don’t bother with it as sideboard rares are rarely worth anything on Magic Online.

Day One Wrap

Battle for Zendikar cards largely remained the same at the end of a day one without much surprise new tech save for brief servings of a BFZ-rendering of The Aristocrats (UB in the hands of Calcano, GB in the hands of Nassif).

The only winner is Smothering Abomination which went from 0.30 tickets to 0.89 tickets and that’s nothing of interest really.

Join us tomorrow as day two unfolds and hopefully we would find the Den Protector/Abbot of Keral Keep of this set.

Casual Fridays

The Event Deck Myth

October 16, 2015 Cliff Daigle 6 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Hangarback Walker, Whisperwood Elemental, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Evolutionary Leap, Warden of the First Tree, Llanowar Wastes.

These are the latest cards of value to be put into an Event Deck, and the latest to take a hit straight to the value as a result. In some cases, there was an immediate loss of value as people panic-sold and stores changed their listed prices, for the buying and the selling of the card.

However, I’m here to make the case that being reprinted this way is not as awful as you might think, and actually represents an opportunity.

Let’s start with the precedent and the flag bearer for preconstructed deck inclusions: Umezawa’s Jitte.

For the longest time, before the price graph shows, this was rock-steady at $20. During its time in Standard, Extended, and after that in Legacy, this has been one of the best equipment ever. (I’ll listen if you want to talk about the Swords or Batterskull, but really, this would get my vote.) Why was such a good card only $20? The preconstructed deck Rats’ Nest. Simply having the card available in a $20 precon meant that there was a price ceiling, even as there was a very small chance of finding it at that price. Even now, with a Grand Prix promo out there, it’s got a relatively low price for a card this old and this good, due to price memory from being in the deck.

This principle applies in the modern day: being in the Event Deck lowers the price briefly but can’t add too much quantity.

How about an example of Wizards trying, I mean REALLY trying, to make a card accessible through Event Deck printings?

Thragtusk was a lowly Core Set rare. Granted, that was Magic 2013, presumed to be a smaller print run than Magic Origins, and that was also before a lot of current players started, but it was THE card to have against blue decks. Or aggressive decks. Or removal-heavy decks. Or anything, really. It’s value coming, going, and in between. Imagine Abzan or other Den Protector decks with this card!

Wizards wanted everyone to have as many Thragtusks as they wanted. To this end, on top of the original supply, this was added to three Event decks in a row: M13, Return to Ravnica, and Gatecrash. For a card that was seeing heavy Standard play, that was the only way for the price to get down to what Wizards felt was a reasonable one. Look at the beginning of the chart and that $25 tag. It still took three additional printings to lower it to $5, and by then, rotation was imminent, which likely did more for lowering the price.

Thragtusk was at $25 and started going down immediately. It never stabilized because of the repeated printings during its year in Standard. Other cards have not gotten the same treatment.
Let’s look at Godless Shrine.

Notice that blip around June 2013? In early May, the Dragon’s Maze Event Deck was spoiled and there was one Godless Shrine in the deck, so it took a hit. The downward trend lasted for about a month, and then it ticked back upward. The card was good enough that while it didn’t rebound completely, it held much of its value.

Same thing with Hallowed Fountain, a one-of in the Theros Event Deck.

The Clash Pack is another method of increasing quantity of a card, as evidenced by Courser of Kruphix:

See that dip in the middle? Right before it made it to $25? That’s the Clash Pack copies hitting the market, and in the flood the price fell hard…and then came back by the time the new set was released.

I’m not trying to make the statement that all the cards given an auxiliary printing will eventually regain their value. That’s not true at all, and there’s a long list of $5 or less rares that got reprinted and struggled to break $1 after the re-release. That’s likely the fate in store for Evolutionary Leap, Warden of the First Tree, and Llanowar Wastes.

What I am saying is that the better cards, the already-expensive cards, those are very likely to bounce back. I’m specifically looking at Hangarback Walker, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, and Whisperwood Elemental.

Hangarback has lost a couple of dollars in the last weeks since the announcement, and for a card seeing as much play as it is, that’s a very good sign for the card and our opportunity to gain value from it. I’m hoping that it goes down to $10 once the decks are on sale, because there’s still a whole year for it to go back up, and that doesn’t even count the appeal outside of Standard.

The current dip means this is the time to buy in, even if it doesn’t go below $14. It’ll be $20 or more by Valentine’s Day, and that’s value we can use.

Tasigur is in an interesting spot. Many of my peers here are preaching the foils, and I’m on board. I also think he’s good enough to hold a $10 price tag in a year when he rotates, because he’s big and easy to cast and has a great ability in older formats. It’s fascinating how on the day of announcement, he fell $2, but the demand is there.

This principle also applies to the Clash Packs, and to some extent the Commander precons. The cards that were expensive stays that way, and will likely recover most of their price. Let’s use Collected Company as an example:

See that diagonal slide in July? The Clash Pack decklist was spoiled on July 9th of this year. We still have a lot of time for this to creep back up, especially because that particular card is already seeing Modern play in a variety of decks.

So in closing, I want you to see reprints as opportunities. I’m still sitting on two playsets of Hangarback, and I’m giving serious consideration to a third.as the playset price creeps to $50 on eBay. If there’s other examples of cards resisting the reprint effect, list them in the comments!

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Brainstorm Brewery #166 – Absence Makes the Heart Grow Indifferent