PROTRADER: Your MTG Finance Skills Are Only As Good As Your Record Keeping

How well do you keep records of your Magic activities? Considering that most financiers are dealing with trades at local games stores, sales through the internet, buylisting, local purchases, personal collections, and many other avenues of acquisitions and sales, keeping track of every financial move you make in this game can be tough. It’s also a key skill to develop in order to be a successful MTG financier.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Grinder Finance – Pro Tour ++

So I’m sitting here drinking a coffee channeling my inner Jace, wondering about a lot of things.  No, not who’s going to win in Vancouver.  I’m thinking about next year!

cardart_137427

While this Pro Tour is going to be pretty great because Wizards of the Coast finally decided to purchase a globe (A summer Pro Tour in Canada makes a lot more sense seasonally), but it also is going to lead us into a huge announcement for the following year.  According to Helen Bergeot (Director of Global Organized Play for Magic), the 2016 Grand Prix schedule is going to be announced at Pro Tour Magic Origins (Source).  This is a great time to start planning for next year’s fun but it also entails another announcement.

For the last eight years, Wizards of the Coast has been giving out a free promo card to everyone who enters the main event of a Grand Prix.  The first two promo cards were nostalgic at best.  Call of the Herd and Spiritmonger are two great green cards from “back in the day” but have aged poorly in today’s standards.  The next two kicked it up a notch and currently sit on the Modern ban list.  Chrome Mox and Umezawa’s Jitte are definitely powerful cards but Wizards missed the mark again.  The next card is one I’m not terribly familiar with at the time it was released. I had taken a break but I can only assume a new art Maelstrom Pulse was well received by players.

The year of 2012 was a deviation from the old promo schedule.  Two promos would be released that year and got an approximate even number of GPs.  Clearly the limited amount of these promos caused them to not positively affect the price of the cards.  Goblin Guide promos sit at almost even footing to the pack foil.  This is typical of under printed promos that are in high demand (similar to pack foil Tasigur vs pre-release Promo Tasigur).  Another year of this weird split schedule had Primeval Titan splitting a year with All is Dust.  Both of those promos I’d consider bargain bin despite their phenomenal art as they were once again paired in Modern Masters 2015.

Evidently someone at Wizards noticed the boom of players was having a really big impact on the price of mythics from the previous years.  Batterskull was announced as the promo for entirety of 2014.

bskull norm

 

Despite being announced as a promo and falling significantly, eternal play brought this card up to $30 before a price dent was really made.  Although some of the price points on this are a little messed up, you can still compare it to today’s promo price.

bskull promo

 

The promo price is almost exactly in lockstep with the regular non-foil.  This clearly demonstrates that the saturation level has been met.  The sheer number of competitors at Grands Prix have been able to saturate the market with just enough Batterskulls to cut the price to something bearable.  Now, the price could also be influenced by Stoneforge Mystic decks falling out of favor in Legacy and Kolaghan’s Command popularity in Modern, but that is likely more of a factor for it not increasing.  It’s been almost a year since Batterskull was the GP Promo and it’s price hasn’t wavered since it’s low.

gbrand

What did Griselbrand do?  Pretty much the same thing as Batterskull.  After reaching peaks of $40, Griselbrand has been on the steady decline to a more managable $20.  It is another small spring set mythic (printed an entire year after Batterskull) that was quickly climbing out of control.  What we can see from this is there really is no upside to holding anything that becomes a Grand Prix promo unless you really like the art.

And now to my point, with the announcement of next year’s Grand Prix schedule, we’ll also probably get an announcement with the year’s Grand Prix promo card.  It’s important to consider how this will affect your collection and what you should do to prepare.

The trend has been pick a successful tournament staple Mythic from the last set of the block that rotated out of Standard 2 years ago.  If the pattern of the last two years of Grand Prix promos is to be followed, we will get a card from Dragon’s Maze.  Unfortunately, Dragon’s Maze is a miserable set.  For argument’s sake, there are really only two cards in the whole set really worth discussing.

ralVOR

As much as I would personally love an alternate art foil Ral Zarek, I doubt he will be the Grand Prix promo.  He’s not a competitive card and Wizards has shown reluctance to use those as Grand Prix promos.  Voice of Resurgence would make sense as a Grand Prix promo.  At a fair trade value of approximately $25, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit $30 before being the promo.  It would be a very similar trajectory to Batterskull.  But that alone doesn’t make him a slam dunk.  Really it’s anyone’s guess but I have a few theories on what may happen.

Return to Ravnica block was opened in such huge quantities it’s hard for anything in the set to truly command a high price.  The 10 shock lands take a lot of the value away from other cards.  It’s possible to keep Voice of Resurgence’s price from tanking completely that they do another split year of promos with Ral Zarek and Voice of Resurgence.

Another possible outcome is another card from Innistrad.  There are many possible reprint targets at rare like Snapcaster Mage and Cavern of Souls and mythics like Huntmaster of the Fells, Liliana of the Veil, and Craterhoof Behemoth.  I’d say your Liliana’s are likely safe as they are the RPTQ promo.  Snapcaster Mage might be the prize they save for the next Modern Masters.  So really, what I’m trying to say, is it’s really anyone’s guess.  Just don’t get caught with your pants down.

But what about the Pro Tour!?  Well this is kind of a stale Pro Tour.  There is probably money to made by speculators but there’s not a real reason to invest in a ton of cards that might not be good in a few months.  The Rally the Ancestors deck looks good now but after they lose temples, Satyr Wayfinder, and Mogis’s Mauraders, how good is the deck anymore?  Even Thopter Spy Network and Hangarback Walker have room to fall when Darksteel Citadel rotates out.

My suggestion to you is to buy cards that you know are good.  Siege Rhino and Den Protector decks probably aren’t going anywhere.  If you don’t own those guys now I’m not really sure when you’re ever going to buy them and not regret it.  To quote Patrick Sullivan all last weekend, “I wish I picked up my Jaces last week.”

PROTRADER: Credit Is King

Your cards are sorted as requested by the website. You specified the proper condition on your cards, if applicable, to minimize surprise downgrades. You’ve followed precise packaging instructions. You’ve shipped with tracking to protect yourself.

Buy list order successful, right? Well, maybe.

When it comes to buy listing, the name of the game is time-efficient optimization. You can ship all of your cards to a single store to save time, but you may sacrifice value in the process. On the other hand, shipping cards to seven buyers so you can earn an extra few bucks is likely not worth shipping costs or your time. These are just a few considerations that feed into the buy listing process.

In addition to these, I’ve recently gleaned a few new insights on the buy listing process that I feel is worth sharing. It’s not related to how to package and ship cards, nor is it even directly related to which cards you should consider selling at this time. Instead, I want to focus on one of the most crucial aspects of buy listing: how you are paid.

Here’s the hook: from what I have learned, I may never take cash payments ever again.

Cash Isn’t King?

You may be wondering how I can make such a bold claim when in the past you’ve heard me declare “cash is king” in various media. The end game is still cash of course. In fifteen years when my son’s university requests payment, I don’t think they’ll be willing to take Black Lotuses and Moxen. The critical thing I’ve learned though, is that you actually sacrifice many worthwhile efficiencies when taking cash payments.

First of all, there are the suboptimal cash payment methods. If you want access to funds instantly, PayPal is generally your go-to option. However any active Magic card seller will tell you PayPal fees add up quite a bit. Three percent here and there may not sound like a sizable amount, but over the course of a year it can turn into hundreds of dollars in lost value.

Tithe

When I was new to MTG Finance, this was my payment method of choice. I was so focused on getting paid immediately that I sacrificed value to get there. In hindsight, this was 100% the incorrect move. Unless you have an immediate need for funds, I cannot advocate this approach.

Enter checks. By exercising patience, you can instantly earn roughly three percent more on your buy list orders. All it takes is requesting payment by check. Checks incur zero fees and most (though not all) shops will offer a check option with no penalty. The major downside here, however, is the resultant wait. While some card shops are very prompt with issuing payment, others can sometimes drag your feet.

Anticipate

Add in inconsistencies of the postal system, and you enter a tireless waiting period with every buy list you submit. This means you’ll have more funds tied up in pieces of paper stuffed in envelopes handled by mail carriers. I’m not so sure I love this premise.

Best of Both Worlds

The drawbacks to PayPal payments and check payments have haunted me for quite some time. I didn’t like the fees, so taking PayPal payment quickly became highly unattractive. Yet I get so frustrated waiting for checks to come in the mail – plus there’s the added inconvenience of having to go to the bank to deposit the checks. Even once the checks are deposited, there may be hold times until the check clears in your account.

I’ve discovered a better way, and it’s been right under our noses all this time: store credit.

Everyone knows about the store credit option. Vendors throw this option in our face as often as possible, offering significant incentive in the form of trade-in bonuses for those willing to leave cash out of the equation. Star City Games and ABU Games offer a solid 25% trade bonus. To be more competitive, Channel Fireball and Card Kingdom do even better by offering 30%. Either way, the conclusion is identical: you get more for your cards if you’re willing to take credit.

This isn’t news to anyone. If you’ve ever dealt with store credit before, you know there are some sizable drawbacks to this avenue as well. Most notably, you need to determine if the vendor has any cards you need in stock, and then you need to double check their pricing. Having $125 in store credit instead of $100 in cash may sound great, but if you have to pay 25-50% premiums with your credit then this approach kind of defeats the purpose. If you’re trying to pick up that Underground Sea from Star City Games with trade credit, then you’re stuck paying $250 for MP copies knowing you can get them much closer to $200 from private sellers. So much for that 25% trade-in bonus.

Sea

Historically, this is where I would give up. I would browse an online store’s inventory looking for cards I wanted. If prices on those particular cards were unfavorable, I’d just take the cash. I figured I’d be better off without the trade-in bonus if I could find the cards I needed for 25-50% less than what a retailer would charge anyway.

I had it all wrong.

The World Is Your Oyster

Flexibility is the ticket to maximizing your buy lists. If you broaden your search on vendor sites and look for any and all opportunities rather than just your particular want list, you’re almost guaranteed to find good deals. Let’s face it: there are ten’s of thousands of options to choose from when you factor in conditions, sets, grades, sealed product variations, etc. Every single vendor is likely to have a good deal somewhere. And I mean everyone. Let me illustrate this point with a story.

Lately, I’ve been in the market for some Old School MTG cards. I wanted to acquire some Beta Hypnotic Specters for my deck. After searching through eBay and TCG Player, I concluded that Moderately Played copies would cost me about $25 and that Heavily Played copies were only slightly cheaper. I was about to pull the trigger, when I discovered something.

Hyppie

Even though Star City Games has some fairly high prices on Near Mint Alpha and Beta cards, their Moderately Played prices are actually pretty good. In fact, their price on MP Beta Hypnotic Specter was $19.99 – below TCG Low!  So I filled out my playset by purchasing the copies I needed from SCG without blinking an eye.

Fast Forward a couple weeks – Raging Ravine spiked due to Modern speculation, and Star City Games upped their buy list for the card enough to pique my interest. I wanted a quick flip, so I pulled the trigger. Since I didn’t have an urgent need for cash I requested the trade-in credit option. When the credit arrived, I began my quest of trying to find a card I wanted which also carried a favorable price. I was having little luck, when I remembered the deal I found on Beta Hypnotic Specters. Sure enough, they still had a few MP copies in stock at $19.99. So I picked up three more copies despite the fact that I already had my playset. By selling and trading these extra copies, I was able to turn that 25% store credit trade-in bonus into more cash and cards than I would have had if I simply took cash payment from Star City.  Because I didn’t limit my search to only cards I needed, I was able to generate more value from my trade-in.  Success!

Next Level

This isn’t a one-time incident.  There are always opportunities – I don’t see myself ever taking cash payments again. At least, not until I’m ready to cash out a chunk of my MTG portfolio. Taking the cash leaves too much value on the table.

But I want to make an even bolder statement: not only do I believe taking trade-in credit is always the more optimal play, I also believe you can turn store credit at any site into more store credit at a different site right away.

Here’s a quick example: imagine having $50 in Star City Games store credit. I’d encourage you to consider picking up Island of Wak-Wak.  If you don’t own a copy, I’d recommend it as a sweet card to jam in an EDH deck.  But even if you have zero interest in the land, it still may be worth grabbing.

Island

Star City Games’ price tag may not be too impressive: $49.99 for Near Mint copies is in line with TCG High pricing. You certainly wouldn’t be able to grab that copy to flip on TCG Player. But here’s the beautiful thing – you won’t have to. You can immediately unload it for value by simply selling it to ABU Games. Currently ABU Games is paying $44.13 for NM copies of the Arabian Nights land. While there’s no cash arbitrage here, it’s worth noting that you’d get $55.16 in trade credit with ABU Games by selling them one NM copy and taking the 25% trade-in bonus. Now your $50 SCG credit suddenly becomes $55.16 ABU Games credit.

This doesn’t work perfectly on a small scale. Star City Games will charge you shipping, and you’ll need to pay more shipping when mailing the card to ABU Games. But if you do this in sufficient quantity, there is value to be made here. The challenge is finding the good deals and identifying which vendors pay better on which cards. This is the “barrier to entry” on this buy list arbitrage endeavor. Research is significant and can be time consuming if you’re not sure where to look.

I’ve been working with a friendly, insightful colleague who has alerted me to this strategy, and together we’ve discovered some pricing trends. We don’t have them all hashed out yet, but some ideas are showing promise. Perhaps this is a topic for a future article if there’s sufficient interest…

Wrapping It Up

Buy listing is an ever-present component of MTG Finance. PayPal payments incur unnecessary fees, and I can’t ever support this approach. Receiving a check payment incurs no fees, but I’m beginning to question whether this is also sub-optimal.

Trade credit, especially with hefty trade-in bonuses, may just be flat out better 99% of the time. As long as you broaden your search and open your mind to any cards (even cards you have no interest in), you may be able to find deals with your store credit. Then you can flip newly acquired cards on eBay or TCG Player to extract maximum value. Or better yet, skip the hassle of trying to sell cards by flipping your cards to other vendors for more store credit. The opportunities are out there – you just need to be willing to look.

Sig’s Quick Hits

  • I’ve mentioned this card numerous times already. Despite increasing their price from $400 to $800 over the past couple months Star City Games is still sold out of Bazaar of Baghdad. I wonder if they’ll bump their buy price yet again so they can actually keep some copies in stock.
  • The Pro Tour is less than a week away and I am keenly interested in which Origins cards get the most attention from all the Pros. Right now Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is quite hot. Star City Games is now sold out of the flip Planeswalker at $34.99. His price is likely to go higher in the coming days, but will it stay that high?
  • Modern has really cooled off in the weeks following Grand Prix Vegas. Many spiked cards have drifted sideways or even downwards. But a few select cards haven’t gotten the “memo” that Standard is the exciting format to watch. Star City Games has just one nonfoil copy of Disrupting Shoal in stock, at $14.99! This is pretty steep for a card that sees so little play.

PROTRADER: The Meta Report: Magic Origins Week One (Part I)

By Guo Heng

Welcome back to another instalment of The Meta Report where we dissect the latest results from the competitive circuit and put them under an mtgfinance lens. We are in an exciting period in Standard right now. The format is at peak diversity, with the highest possible number of sets we could draw from to construct our Standard decks. The release of Magic Origins last Friday injected a slew of new cards into the format and we’ve had our first major Standard event last weekend at Star City Games Standard Grand Prix Open in Chicago.

I initially planned to cover everything in a single article, but as I wrote about the new cards that made waves at Chicago, I realised there were too many cards I would like to discuss, so I would be splitting this Meta Report into two parts. The first part will deal with the old guards of the Standard format and the Magic Origins cards that impacted them. The second part will deal with new archetypes spawned by Magic Origins.

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MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY