Going Mad – No News Is Not No News

By: Derek Madlem

I think the title of this article is pretty self explanatory, what could be clearer than a triple negative? What I’m saying is that a lack of news doesn’t mean that there is no news… quite the opposite really. Often times no news is news of nothing, in this case that of course refers to the banned and restricted list changes which are announced the Monday before every new set’s release.

Banned and restricted list changes have become a main attraction within the #mtgfinance community ever since we saw our dear friends Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, the Mind Sculptor get kicked out of Standard. Since then we’ve watched the B&R changes with an eye for opportunity. With the flick of a switch, Wizards is capable of propelling an archetype up from tier 3 to being an actual contender or propelling a struggling prospect to format staple. Like what for example?

Snapcaster Mage

Remember when this guy rotated? He was a “sure bet” as a card that was going to go up. We all held onto our Snapcaster Mages. Those of us that had extra resources to devote to parking cards in binders acquired as many copies as we could get our grubby hands on, after all it was a sure bet. But what we didn’t realize was that Snapcaster had an enemy that was even more pervasive in Modern:

Deathrite

While Deathrite Shaman was leading Jund, and eventually Birthing Pod decks, to oppressive victories in Modern it was also having the peripheral consequence of making Snapcaster Mage a lot less powerful in Modern. When Deathrite was banned, we should have seen the signs, within a couple of weeks Snapcaster jumped up over 60 percent.

No Changes

No changes to the Banned and restricted list is sometimes as telling as the words “Deathrite Shaman is banned”. For weeks we’ve heard a rumbling crescendo of players calling for bans in Modern. The three main offenders were Splinter Twin, Goryo’s Vengeance, and Amulet of Vigor.

We’re fairly safe in assuming that Wizards has no intention of banning Splinter Twin after including it in Modern Masters 2015 and even going so far as to add another creature that combos with it in Bounding Krasis. In addition to that, the reality is that the deck just slots in Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker to do the same job as most Twin decks aren’t hard pressed to kill on turn four every game.

Amulet of Vigor

Amulet of Vigor is a deck that received a lot of high profile attention, mostly due to the efforts at one exceptionally adept pilot… that happened to be cheating. Combo decks generally perform much better when you get to pick your starting seven. Despite being an “impossible to stop” combo deck that wins so easily through countermagic, this deck hasn’t really put up any real results. Amulet of Vigor is akin to the Second Sunrise decks we saw a few years ago, too complicated for most players to play… but this time we have the benefit of it not taking 30 minutes for our opponent to screw up the sequencing.

Goryo's Vengeance

Goryo’s Vengeance is a Magic card. It’s been around for a few years with various builds floating in the wild. It wasn’t until recently that the Nourishing Shoal tech was added into the fold. This ensured that players weren’t required to successfully attack and cast Fury of the Horde repeatedly to win the game, now you just give some lands to your favorite cyclops friend and he’ll throw them at your opponent’s face. Despite Goryo’s popularity (it even has it’s own hashtag #Griselbanned), the deck hasn’t won any major events and has merely showed up in some diverse top 8s and top 16s.

The argument that’s been made about these last two decks is that the deck’s are “too fast” for Modern because they’re occasionally able to win as early as turn two. But if that’s our only metric for banning, expect a lot more in the pipeline. Glistener Elf is quite capable of ending things on turn two, and there are a lot more combinations of cards that get there in infect than there are these other two decks.

Nourishing Shoal

By declining to ban anything with this announcement, the fear that some of these cards will be banned is lessened; that would theoretically open up some room for upward growth on the key components of these decks. Unless…

Pro Tour Coverage

The other prevailing theory is that Wizards is just going to tie (un)bannings primarily to the Modern Pro Tours. Many claim that Modern just isn’t a compelling format for Pro Tour viewers and that the only way to “keep it interesting” is to cause a shakeup right before the event with (un)bannings. I disagree that shaking things up right before the Pro Tour leads to any kind of real innovation, it’s generally going to lead to players retreating to “safe” decks rather than attacking an established format from a new angle.

Ultimately what this translates to is the operating theory that Goryo’s Vengeance and Amulet of Vigor are going to be banned at the next Modern Pro Tour. While I don’t think there’s a compelling case for either of these cards to be banned in Modern, the reality is that Wizards does what Wizards does and it doesn’t always make sense. It would be incredibly easy for Wizards to simply just make all Pro Tours feature both Modern and Standard alongside draft to ensure new cards are going to be showcased and still support all their competitive formats.

Bottom line: you have at least three months to play with these cards if you want to acquire them, and you have at least three months to deleverage these cards if you’re looking to sell. It’s highly unlikely anything in these decks sees any dramatic movement, but the prices are likely to remain stable and grow incrementally from here on out.

Modern Masters

There hasn’t been much talk about Modern Masters 2015 lately either, other than the false notion that prices are on the decline. A quick look at the last week’s biggest gains and losses shows basically nothing from the set moving one way or the other. Stability. If your local game stores are anything like mine, Modern Masters drafts are long over… leaving any influx of new product solely to “lottery ticket” fans. Pack supply is very slowly going to wind down as shops sell a couple dozen packs a week until it’s mostly depleted.

What does this mean for you? It means that the price of cards in Modern Masters has pretty much stabilized and that you can expect slow upward growth from here on out for the set’s best cards. There’s just not going to be another massive influx of new product to push prices down any time soon.

Magic Origins

Another set that’s been relatively quiet this week. Typically at prerelease events we get to see new cards in action for the first time and have a better chance to evaluate them. Simply walking around watching games between rounds can give you a general idea of whether or not a card is going to strike a chord with the general population.

Evolutionary Leap

I saw zero people playing Evolutionary Leap this weekend, which is of no real surprise to me as this card is just extremely complicated in the abstract, especially for casual players.

“Why would I want to kill one of my own creatures?”
– casual player, 2015

I stand by my theory that this is a card that will require someone to show us the way before it can really take off. This means that the price is likely to continue slipping, which could make the payoff that much sweeter once it does finally break out.

Abbot of Keral Keep

Abbot of Keral Keep was a card that I had my eyes on, especially after opening it as my prerelease promo. I won a number of games on the back of this card and my opinion of it only continues to grow. I’m especially interested in playing this alongside Courser of Kruphix over the next few months as knowing what the top card is before you cast him only makes him more powerful. Even watching other players playing the Abbot gave me a sense that even when he’s really bad… he’s not that bad. If this card didn’t have prowess, we’d be having a completely different discussion; but the extra damage makes him worth a little more than a bear.

The Planeswalkers were all pretty impressive, in limited. I’m still having a hard time seeing these in constructed play going forward. At the top tables of the prerelease there was a noted absence of Planeswalkers, the only one that I did see was Jace and the pilot said numerous times that they wish they didn’t have to flip him. “It’s better as a Merfolk Looter” is not a ringing endorsement for constructed play.

Eyes on the Horizon

This weekend we have the usual method of unveiling the new hot fire: an SCG Standard Open. All eyes will be on Chicago this weekend, so make note of what types of decks are showing up in coverage and be sure to pay extra attention to what shows up in the top 32. Many of the format’s new archetypes are going to be in a refinement phase this weekend so tread cautiously. Slotting a Goblin Piledriver into an existing goblin deck is easy…it’s when you get to crafting complicated machines with lots of moving parts that things start to get really interesting.

My advice is to see what hype is generated this weekend but don’t get too trigger happy, the second wave of hype will come the weekend of the Pro Tour so your best bet for high prices will be then.


 

Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

Let’s take a look at the Magic Origins Clash Pack to see if it is worth picking up in order to boost the value of your collection. I’ll look at both the MSRP versus retail value of the singles and then compare them to my opinions of what the future value of the cards will be after their rotation from Standard. I’ll also keep in mind that some of the cards from the decks are alternate art foil, which could reflect their future value.

For the alternate art foils, I am going to use the TCG Median price since MTGPrice does not yet track the value of specific clash pack foil versions of cards. I will note the special foils with three asterisks ***.

Decklists:

ARMED $$$ DANGEROUS $$$
1 Anointer of Champions 0.22 2 Ainok Bond-Kin 0.28
1 Dragon Hunter 0.32 2 Disowned Ancestor 0.26
1 Honored Hierarch*** 3 3 Lightwalker 0.42
1 Seeker of the Way*** 0.71 1 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit 2.47
1 Dromoka Warrior 0.18 1 Avatar of the Resolute 1.6
2 Topan Freeblade 0.28 2 Abzan Falconer 0.4
2 Undercity Troll 0.46 1 Tuskguard Captain 0.18
1 Consul’s Lieutenant 0.3 1 Mer-Ek Nightblade 0.18
1 Dragon Bell Monk 0.14 1 Abzan Battle Priest 0.19
2 Valeron Wardens 0.48 1 Longshot Squad 0.14
2 Citadel Castellan 0.76 1 Siege Rhino*** 4.5
2 War Oracle 0.48 1 Elite Scaleguard 0.19
1 Outland Colossus 1 1 Dromoka, the Eternal*** 0.5
1 Kytheon’s Irregulars 0.9
2 Cached Defenses 0.42
2 Epic Confrontation 0.22 2 Map the Wastes 0.28
2 Enshrouding Mist 0.28 2 Incremental Growth 0.32
1 Feat of Resistance 0.15 2 Ultimate Price 0.68
2 Mighty Leap 0.28 1 Scale Blessing 0.2
1 Pressure Point 0.13 2 Dromoka’s Gift 0.4
1 Valorous Stance*** 2 1 Suspension Field 0.24
2 Titanic Growth 0.3 1 Debilitating Injury 0.14
1 Dromoka’s Command 6 1 Abzan Ascendancy 0.3
1 Collected Company 18 1 Citadel Siege 0.72
2 Pacifism 0.5 1 Ancestral Vengeance 0.14
2 Blossoming Sands 0.3 2 Jungle Hollow 0.3
2 Evolving Wilds 0.44 1 Sandsteppe Citadel*** 0.69
1 Windswept Heath 14 2 Scoured Barrens 0.3
11 Plains 0 2 Blossoming Sands 0.3
10 Forest 0 7 Plains 0
6 Swamp 0
6 Forest 0
Total Cost: $51.83 Total Cost: $16.74

The MSRP cost of the clash pack is $24.99, so looking at these two decks priced at $25 feels like highway robbery. Collected Company and Windswept Heath makes this a very juicy pickup indeed. On top of that they decided to throw in Dromoka’s Command, Siege Rhino, Honored Hierarch, and even Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit for fun.

The retail value of the singles versus the MSRP of the deck doesn’t automatically mean that everyone should buy this. Yet, I’m pretty sure this is the first clash pack released that is more than double its MSRP value in singles if you were to pay TCGPlayer Median for them. I’m wondering if that means the singles in the clash pack will drop significantly or if this clash pack will sell above MSRP for its life in Standard due to the value of the cards.

Big Reprints

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.10 AM

Collected Company

So this card is almost $20 TCG Mid right now as a Standard legal rare. Only out since April, Collected Company has already spiked three times due to Modern hype and the amount of decks that it has helped to push in the Modern format, on top of Standard demand in decks like Devotion to Green and Selesnya Aggro. Please realize though that this card isn’t Snapcaster Mage, so I don’t think that the $20 and higher price point is going to be sustainable for long.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.20 AM

It took a long time for Snapcaster Mage to break the $25 barrier. While it was in Standard, not only did it NOT receive the clash pack treatment but it also never went far above $25 as a fair trade price and could easily be acquired in cash or retail for $20 or less. Collected Company isn’t going to be nearly as ubiquitous as something like Snapcaster Mage. I mean, Birthing Pod decks at one point was putting up numbers in the mid-30% range of Top 8’s in Modern and even Pod never went farther than $20.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.31 AM

Standard legal cards are tricky, though. Since CoCo is so popular in both Standard and Modern the new price could be sticking. However, with the clash pack reprinting I’m guessing that something similar to what happened to Courser of Kruphix is going to happen to CoCo.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.40 AM

See that dip there in Jan 2015? That’s about the time the clash pack came out. Courser dropped $5 and never recovered in price. Now, CoCo also has significantly more Modern demand going for it, which is part of the reason the price is so wild right now. Though I feel that as more Dragons of Tarkir packs are busted that the hype will die down and that Collected Company will settle between $12 and $15 for the rest of its Standard life with a dip at rotation. However, if you were savvy enough to get in on Collected Comapny at $4 prerelease prices then definitely get rid of any extras you have before the price starts dipping again. This is the highest we’re going to see it for a while, and the clash pack reprint means the price is only going down.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.49 AM

Windswept Heath

I don’t think the clash pack printings are going to have any effect at all on Windswept Heath’s price in the near future, other than to stabilize it further at $15 compared to the other currently Standard legal fetchlands. The price isn’t going to lower significantly, as I don’t think we’ll ever see sub-$10 fetchlands in Standard since they are so vital to mana bases in the format and beyond.

This is a great opportunity to get in on Windswept Heath once copies from the clash packs saturate the market, since I’m guessing that many players are going to want to pick this clash pack up for the value. Once the price on Heath stabilizes, it’s going to be nice to pick up extra copies to use as trade bait later in Heath’s Standard life.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.57 AM

Dromoka’s Command

Dromoka’s Command is never going above $6 due to the clash pack printing. It previously had highs of $10 closer to the release of Dragons of Tarkir, however now that the hype has died down and Standard might be taking a new direction as the fall approaches, demand for Dromoka’s Command has wavered and retailers have updated their prices to reflect that.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.03.05 AM

Siege Rhino

I think that similar to Whip of Erebos that the clash pack printing of Siege Rhino will reflect the pack version’s price. The alternate art isn’t great on this card, so the regular foils of Siege Rhino will still be worth more than the clash pack foil but will stabilize quite a bit due to the clash pack printing.

In general, I’m not sure if Siege Rhino will ever go much further than $6 retail during its remaining time in Standard. Abzan is already starting to wane in favor of other strategies, so the demand for the Rhino has also been waning.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.03.12 AM

Honored Hierarch

The jury’s still out on Honored Hiearch, as Magic Origins has just been released, however I think that it definitely has potential in Standard since Wizards is showing that they are moving away from one mana manadorks in favor of cards like Rattleclaw Mystic. My personal evaluation of the card is hot garbage, however I’m no professional player and also noted that Wizards released this as a rare which means that in playtesting it was too powerful as an uncommon (maybe for limited reasons?).

Either way, due to the clash pack printing and the already low price of $2.50 to $3, I don’t think that the Hierarch is going anywhere in price for the time being. Seems like it is tricky to get going in Standard, and even then your reward is only Birds of Paradise.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.03.23 AM

Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit

Any chance that this card had of going over $3 was just killed. Now that there are going to be even more copies of this version of Anafenza out there the price isn’t moving. In fact, it could even go down based on the release of the clash pack.

If a later Standard strategy utilizes her, the price might move back up towards $3 but I don’t think there is room for growth here due to the clash pack reprinting.

 

Summary

The awesomeness of this clash pack can’t be understated. There is a ton of value here and I’m sure I’m not the only person that noticed. The big-box retailers are going to sell this clash pack for $30 or more based on the card values yet there are always deals to be had. I’m sure plenty of retailers are going to have this for $25 (or less even) so if you want to pick up the clash pack for a cheap copy of Collected Company and Windswept Heath for Standard play you can’t go wrong.

However, I would caution that once the singles dip in price that the deck will get less and less valuable and therefore less attractive as a pickup. For example, after Collected Company and Windswept Heath stabilize in price, most of the value cards are going to be $3 and less with just tons of bulk thrown in there. It’s going to be hard to trade or out the cards as more time goes on, so if you want to make the most of this clash pack then it is better to sell or trade the singles sooner rather than later.

PROTRADER: Leverage the Data

Knowledge is Power.

This cliché is entirely overused, yet it still fits the description of today’s article perfectly. Having data – especially from reliable and impactful sources – can be a significant boon to one’s investment strategy. Imagine if we had something as simple as the size of print runs of Magic’s recent sets. Such data would drive better price predictions when assessing supply and demand.

Of course this isn’t a realistic endeavor. Wizards of the Coast keeps this sort of data very close to their chests, and for good reason.

Speaking of being protective of valuable data, let me kick off this column with a story.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: Why I Love the Magic Origins Clash Pack

By Guo Heng

Clash Packs never stirred my interest. My local Game Days are pretty competitive and the decks were never good enough to be used for their intended purpose. The only reason I bat a financial eye in response to Clash Packs in the past was to see which of my holds dodged reprint. The Magic Origins Clash Pack may be the first time I am so excited about a Clash Pack in term of financial opportunity.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cardsProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY