Announcing Unlocked ProTrader Articles

Hello everyone, Corbin here!

You may be used to seeing my name when my column comes out on Thursdays, but I also handle of lot of editorial duties around here, and today that means I’m lucky enough to make an exciting announcement: the first batch of ProTrader-only content is now free for everyone to read!

Dig Through Time

We run both free and ProTrader-exclusive content here, and while I believe all of our content is of the highest quality, the writers on the ProTrader side tend to focus on more immediate calls for those looking to stay as far ahead of the market as possible.

But we don’t want to hide our content away behind a paywall forever, so all articles here will unlock after 45 days. WIth the launch of ProTrader-exclusive content last month, that means I have some great pieces to share with you today, many of which are still extremely relevant today.

Remember, if you like what you see here, I hope you’ll consider signing up for a ProTrader membership, which in addition to exclusive article content gives you access to lively forums, advanced statistical tools and more.

Enough preamble, onto the content!

Sigmund Ausfresser – Advanced economics of MTG finance, Part 1

Part 2

In a must-read two-part series, Sigmund Ausfresser details some of the advanced underlying economic conditions that make Magic’s secondary market just so vibrant.

Danny Brown – Planeswalker Finance

Planeswalkers are the face of Magic, and there are plenty of them in the game. Danny Brown breaks down exactly how they line up financially.

Travis Allen – Safety Deposit Boxes – Khans of Tarkir

A huge part of Magic finance is always looking ahead, and in this article Travis Allen identifies which desirable Khans of Tarkir cards have bottomed out.

Corbin Hosler – Why I Love Casual Magic, and Why You Should Too

Corbin Hosler – Casual Hits of 2015

Anyone who’s followed my own content knows I love investing in long-term casual cards, and I explained exactly why in this piece, with a follow-up piece chock-full of great casual speculation targets.

Guo Heng Chin – Spikecatcher 

Guo knows how difficult it is to stay ahead of the market, and in this article he gives a few tips to make it easier on yourself.

Ross Lennon – The Coming Storm

At this point Modern Masters 2015 was just beginning to see spoilers, but Ross Lennon was already ahead of the game, prepping readers for the impact it would have.

Remember what I said about timely calls? This was published on May 1, and Ross included this tip:

At some point you have to expect Magus of the Moon to start climbing. That card was in one set, and that set wasFuture Sight, so it almost doesn’t even count. Plus, do you remember the 8-Moon decks? I sure do, they were sweet. I’m tempted to just buy a ton of magi right now for retail. 

On May 1, Magus of the Moon was $9. Today, it’s $19.

Guo Heng Chin – The Meta Report 

Part of an ongoing series, Guo looeds over the most recent results in the Standard metagame to keep readers updated and find the latest targets.

Danny Brown – Assessing the Risks of Speculating

It’s sometimes a dangerous game we play, and Danny does a great job in this piece detailing what those risks are and how to manage them.

Travis Allen – A first look at Modern Masters 2015

With the Modern Masters 2015 spoilers coming in quickly, Travis wrote a solid piece analyzing what the early movements looked like.

Ross Lennon – Silver and Cold

Part of an ongoing series, Ross Lennon looked back at Coldsnap to evaluate the set for any financial opportunity hidden in the Dark Depths of the set.

 

There you have it! A great set of articles, and just a small sampling of what you’ll have access to with a ProTrader membership. Thanks for taking the time to stick with us, and I hope you’ve enjoyed the unlocked content today!

 

– Corbin Hosler

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Taking a Closer Look at Demand Sources

Imagine if Wizards of the Coast told us exactly how many packs of Dragons of Tarkir had been sold so far. We know how the cards are distributed, so with an accurate pack count, we could determine precisely how many Dragonlord Atarkas there are in the wild and compare that with the numbers for Fate Reforged and the amount of Monastery Mentors in existence. Armed with that info, it would be really easy to pinpoint where cards were in short supply and buy accordingly.

Unfortunately, Wizards does not publicize that information, or at least not very often. We get hints about proportions (“X is the best-selling set of all time!”) every so often, but ultimately, we’re left to determine supply based on anecdotal data and broad assumptions.

 

Sure, it’s pretty easy to say there’s a lot more Innistrad out in the wild than Lorwyn, but by how much? We don’t really know, and can’t with the amount of information we have at our disposal. And things get murkier when we start comparing recent sets. How does Dragons of Tarkir compare with Journey into Nyx? Or Dragon’s Maze? We can broadly assume that Dragon’s Maze was unpopular so there’s probably far fewer Voice of Resurgences out there than there are Dragonlord Ojutais, but it’s all guesstimating—we are just not in a position to know what the actual card counts are on these cards, or any cards for that matter.

So while the pattern over the last decade or so has been one of extreme growth (and thus ever-increasing amounts of supply), we know the proportions between set printings in only the broadest terms. Again using Dragon’s Maze as an example: we know it was an unpopular set, but we don’t have the numbers as to just how badly it actually performed. If we did, we might find that Voice of Resurgence is greatly over- or underpriced when we consider the actual number of copies out there.

Way back in 2013, Anthony Capece, a former writer for BrainstormBrewery.com, did some very important work for the community in shining a light on some of these supply issues. Those articles, “Rare is the New Uncommon” and “Size Matters,” should be required reading for every single MTG financier, so if you haven’t read them before (or even if it’s just been a while), click those links. They’ll open in a new tab and everything, so you don’t even have to stop reading here.

Anthony did some great investigative work to come to rough estimates on supply of new sets compared to old ones, but we still don’t have the exact numbers. However, just like Magic is a game of imperfect information, so is MTG finance, and our job is to take action based on the information that we do have available.

Courser of Kruphix versus Gilded Lotus

Let’s compare two very different but similarly priced (at time of writing) cards: Courser of Kruphix and Gilded Lotus.

courserofkruphix

Courser derives most of its value from Standard play, though that value is tapering off fast from a high of over $20 to the current price of $6. The card has seen a little bit of Modern action, as well, but doesn’t make the MTG Goldfish list of the top 50 creatures in the format. To top it off, Courser isn’t exactly undesirable in the most popular casual formats, Commander and Cube. 

Despite being good outside of Standard, most of Courser’s historic price comes from Standard demand, where it has been a complete staple and almost always a four-of. The price loss over the last several months is almost certainly attributable to the upcoming rotation, and we may still lose some more off the price by the time we lose Theros block from Standard.

gildedlotus

 

Alternatively, we have Gilded Lotus, which saw no Standard play after it was last reprinted in M13. The card derives all of its sharply increasing value from casual play, as there’s a copy in most cubes and in most Commander decks, but nary a single competitive deck wants something like this (cue someone linking to a Vintage deck that just needs to Tinker out Gilded Lotus for some reason).

Delving Into Hypotheticals

I love data, but unfortunately, we just don’t have enough of it to determine exactly why these cards are virtually the same price despite such different demand profiles.

Hypothetically, let’s say the demand comes from the following:

Courser of Kruphix

  • 35% of Standard players need four copies of this card for a Standard deck (reasoning: MTG Goldfish cites Courser of Kruphix as being a 3.8-of in 35.94 percent of Standard decks).
  • 20% of Commander players need one copy for their decks (reasoning: this is good in any green deck, and theoretically, one-fifth of decks in Magic are of a particular color).
  • 90% of cubes need one copy (reasoning: some cubes have special restrictions, but this is good enough to warrant an include in most lists).
  • 5% of Modern players need or want to have available four copies for a Modern deck (reasoning: it’s hardly a staple in five-percent of decks, but some players need to have everything).
  • The Invisibles playing wild card.

Gilded Lotus

  • 90% of Commander players need one copy for their decks (reasoning: some aggressive decks might not want this, but it’s a colorless fixer that ramps to giant fatties and can go in literally any deck).
  • 90% of cubes need one copy (reasoning: some cubes have special restrictions, but this is good enough to warrant an include in most lists).
  • The Invisibles playing wild card.

Again, these are just numbers I pulled out of thin air—they’re here only for illustration’s sake.

If these numbers were accurate, do you think we could use them to determine the total number of active players in each format? I hope you’re saying no, because these numbers are not accounting for the mystery I discussed during the first part of this article: how many copies of each card is actually in existence.

We just can’t fill in enough of the variables to fully solve the equation. This is why no speculation target is ever 100-percent safe: we (the MTG community) do not have enough information to know for sure that there is or is not enough of one particular card to satisfy the demand from all players who might want one or more copies for whatever reason.

Using the Tools We Do Have

Still, I think the exercise of going through where a card’s demand is coming from can really help to streamline one’s thought process regarding a card one is considering buying. Several MTGPrice writers have (rightly) been harping on three major targets from Khans of Tarkir block, so let’s consider where the demand might come from for each of these moving forward.

Siege Rhino

I have not bought in to Siege Rhino, but the card is an extremely interesting case. Normally, a three-color card has very limited upside, as only a select few decks can play it, but we’ve seen Standard and Modern decks designed essentially because this card is powerful enough to warrant it.

Still, there’s pretty much a maximum of one deck in Standard and one deck in Modern that wants this card, and even if those comprise a huge part of each metagame, there’s not any cross-deck applicability to really keep Rhino’s price up.

Further adding to my concerns is that this isn’t going to be in hardly any Commander decks or cubes, given its limited upside in the 100-card battlecruiser format and the limited space for three-color cards in most custom drafting environments.

Just piling on to my concerns, it’s a rare from a large fall set, and if you read Anthony’s articles that I linked above, you’ll know why that’s bad.

In summary, when I started writing this section, I thought that Siege Rhino was a fine pickup (if not as good as others), but now that I’m finished, I don’t want to be buying into this at $4. Yes, it’s good enough to warrant decks designed around it, but the assumed supply is as high as cards get and its applicability is highly specific, despite its power level.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Tasigur, on the other hand, is awesome. Delve cards aren’t automatic four-ofs, but even if Tasigur only sees play as a three-of, he’s wanted in Legacy, Modern, Standard, Commander, and Cube, and has plenty of applicability in all kinds of decks from aggro to control.

Again, he suffers from being rare and not mythic, but in this case, we’re looking at a small set that didn’t sell for nearly as long as Siege Rhino’s Khans of Tarkir.

It’s easy to envision much more demand for Tasigur than for Siege Rhino, and it’s also fair to assume the supply is lower. Considering it’s already begun its ascent, the MTG finance community seems to agree.

See the Unwritten

See the Unwrittenon the other hand, has gone down since its initial surge in popularity in response to the announcement of Battle for Zendikar. It’s now just above $3, and it has a much different demand profile than Siege Rhino or Tasigur.

With See the Unwritten, we’re speculating not on current playability in Standard or eternal formats, but on future playability with the assumed Eldrazi coming in BFZ. Initially, this seems riskier than something like Siege Rhino, and maybe it is.

But I have bought in to See the Unwritten, unlike Siege Rhino. The reasons are three-fold:

  1. I strongly believe there will be Eldrazi in BFZ.
  2. The Standard Eldrazi deck might be good, but even if it’s not, this is a mythic and people will want to try out the deck.
  3. The card has enough applicability in Commander that I expect it to grow slowly over time regardless, so in the worst case, it becomes a long-term spec instead of a short-term one.

If See the Unwritten was a rare, I wouldn’t give it a second glance at this price, but mythics can do crazy things, as there’s far fewer of them compared to their rare counterparts. When observing exactly who might be demanding See the Unwritten, it has the smallest group of any of the cards I’ve discussed in this article, but the lower supply due to its mythic-ness makes me much more willing to take a risk on it. Remember, a strategy doesn’t have to be good for a spec to pay out.

In a Perfect World

In a perfect world, we would know the exact number of Siege Rhinos, Tasigurs, and See the Unwrittens in existence, and we would also know exactly how many active players each format has.

Of course, if we lived in that world, then presumably the market would adjust itself so that every card was perfectly priced and there were no speculation opportunities for anybody. Come to think about it, maybe that’s not such a perfect world after all…

Playmat Finance: Grand Prix Playmats

By: Guo Heng

I never cared about the value of playmats until Grand Prix Kuala Lumpur last year. No, it wasn’t the event’s playmat that spurred my interest in the value of playmats. Of all the Chris Rahn art available to choose from, they had to pick Ashen Rider.

What sparked my interest in the financial potential of playmats was a binder grinder from a neighbouring country at the event. He was going around the floor offering players RM80 ($21) for their Grand Prix playmat, which covered a good portion of the RM120 ($32) entry fee, and the whole entry fee if they were willing to throw in the promo Batterskull. Apparently there is a demand for those back at his LGS. That was when it occurred to me that playmats are worth more than I initially assumed (a.k.a. nothing). I know, that is probably common knowledge among Grand Prix veterans by now.

I’ve accrued a couple of playmats from the few Grand Prixes I’ve attended and won a few in tournaments, but they pretty much served the purpose of being the layer that stands between my Snapcaster Mage and utter condition oblivion from being tapped and dragged across the harsh surface of whatever tables I play on. Double-sleeving only protects your beloved Modern staples so much.

After Grand Prix Kuala Lumpur, I began to pay attention to the financial value of playmats. I also started taking better care of mine. No more chucking them in my bag like a rag. Heck, if spindown dices could be worth up to $30 and life counters up to $90, it should be no surprise that certain playmats are going to be worth something. It seems that everything that has to do with Magic could potentially end up as a collectible. Even an empty Alpha deck box could sell for $35.

These days, acquiring collectible playmats has become a side-quest of mine in Magic. I didn’t bother attending the Magic 2015 and Khans of Tarkir Game Days because the champion playmats were mediocre at best, but I grinded the whole weekend during Fate Reforged‘s Game Day to obtain the coveted Ugin playmat. Getting my hands on the Vendilion Clique playmat and the special playmats at Grand Prix Chiba was one of my main goals at the Grand Prix. I came back from Chiba with more playmats than the number of Magic games I’ve played over that weekend.

As of writing, there do not seem to be much information available about the mtgfinance of playmats. This article stems from my research into playmats in order to help me decide if a playmat is worth getting or not (or in the case of Grand Prix Chiba, worth lining up for an hour at 7 a.m.). It’s a rudimentary framework which I use to gauge how much a playmat could potentially be worth, in a manner more objective than ascribing value to a playmat based on whether I find the art delightful or not.

As the majority of playmats are given out at Grand Prixes, let’s use Grand Prix playmats as case studies. Plus, it is easier to compare prices for playmats with similar supply level, rather than compare playmats given out at different sort of events like Pro Tour playmats or Game Day playmats.

Beauty is Subjective

It’s hard to judge how much of a role a playmat’s aesthetics plays in determining its price. While I personally thought it was disappointing that I got an Ashen Rider playmat at Grand Prix Kuala Lumpur, there are some players out there who really like the playmat:

Ashen Rider Playmat

$29 for that playmat? I wouldn’t even pay $5 for it. These days my Grand Prix Kuala Lumpur playmat serves as the playmat that I put under my Ugin Game Day playmat on rare occasions when I take it out. However, there are a subset of players/collectors who obviously thought that the playmat is worth a bit more than I did, which emphasises the importance of having a less subjective method to evaluate a playmat’s worth.

The Artist Factor?

Seeing that playmats do not exert an impact on your game, it is not hard to assume that a playmat’s price could be driven by the name of its artist. After all, in the art world, artist name seems to be the primary factor that drives the price of art pieces to ridiculous heights.

Could it be that the winning bidder of the $29 Ashen Rider playmat above is a big fan of Chris Rahn? Let’s take a look at another playmat featuring a Chris Rahn art, this time an artwork of a card that is an EDH staple.

Vegas Playmat

The Sword of Fire and Ice playmat was given out at the first Modern Masters Grand Prix at Las Vegas in 2013. Only 1,000 were given out at the event. The Sword of Fire and Ice playmat is more valuable than the Ashen Rider one,  but how much of that added value stemmed from the card’s playability rather than the artist name?

Or the Card’s Popularity?

Let’s take a look at another example:

Brainstorm Playmat

The Legacy Grand Prix at New Jersey last November featured the definitive Legacy card on its playmat and even after half-a-year, the playmat is in demand and is worth quite a bit (it’s going for $75 on Star City Games).

An interesting point about the Brainstorm playmat is that while the card is the quintessential  Legacy card, the artist (Tony) DiTerlizzi has not been drawing for Magic since Planeshift in 2001. Yet the Brainstorm playmat was going for around the same price as Chris Rahn’s Sword of Fire and Ice playmat and Chris Rahn is one of the most popular contemporary Magic artist.

By the looks of it, the primary factor in determining a playmat’s value is likely to be the popularity of the card which art is featured on the playmat, rather than the popularity of the artist. Take the Grand Prix Richmond Eternal Witness playmat for example.

Eternal Witness Playmat

Terese Nielsen is probably one of the most beloved artist in Magic. Eternal Witness was witnessed in Birthing Pod decks before Pod got banned and is only found in Collected Company decks today. Played in Modern, but not exactly an iconic card in the format.

Swords Kyoto Playmat

Note: The best offer price which those playmats were sold for were $70, $62 and $75 from top to bottom. The best offer price was viewed by running the original listing’s URL through watchcount.com’s search feature.

Swords of Plowshares is one of the most-played card in Legacy so it’s no surprise that the playmat is worth more than the Eternal Witness playmat from the same artist. I’m tempted to say that the Swords to Plowshares playmat was selling for more than the Brainstorm playmat on the merit of being a Terese Nielsen piece, but the fact that it was from a Japanese Grand Prix may also be a factor.

Conclusion

Grand Prix playmats are exclusive to each Grand Prix and they are unlikely to be ‘reprinted’ outside of their respective events, making them a bit like reserved list cards. Bear that in mind the next time you attend a Grand Prix that gives out a sweet playmat, like the Mox Opal playmat that is going to be handed out at Grand Prix Singapore this weekend:

Mox Opal Playmat
From the official site for Grand Prix Singapore 2015: cleventsgp.com

If you’re attending Grand Prix Singapore this weekend, my wild guesstimate of the playmat’s eBay sales price would be at the very least $30, with an average selling price of $40. I doubt it would hit the heights of Swords to Plowshares, but it should be able to fetch a price tag higher than the Eternal Witness one, based on Mox Opal’s popularity in Modern as a four-of in the definitive aggro deck of the format.

I hope this article has shed some light on evaluating a playmat’s value. Do share your thoughts and experiences in the comment section below, or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.


 

MTGFinance: What We’re Buying/Selling This Week (June 21/15)

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)
One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when and why our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such running this weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought for personal use without hope of profit. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we we’ve been up to this week:

Buying Period: June 15th – June 21st, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

  • Iroas, God of Victory (Japanese) @ $2.30
  • 4x Merrow Reejerey @ $5.00/per
  • 14x Darksteel Relic @ $.80/per

Another pretty quiet week for purchasing on my end, as I’m gearing up to purchase a very large collection.  The Iroas pick up is consistent with my approach to purchase most of the Theros block gods at or around their lows as a long term holds. Merfolk made up 2 of the top 4 decks at GP Copenhagen this weekend, so picking up some staples from the deck seemed prudent. Darksteel Relic is an outsider spec based on a reported deck with Ensoul Artifact in Modern from Japan.

SOLD (Pucatrade)

  • Command Tower (foil) @ $35.29 ($21 cost)
  • Goblin Guide @ $29.31 (pack opened)
  • Academy Ruins @ $11.16 (pack opened)
  • Cavern of Souls @ $40.84 (pack opened)
  • Meddling Mage @ $6.54 ($3 cost/per)
  • 4x Razorverge Thicket @ $6.47 ($3 cost/per)
  • 3x Sword of Feast & Famine @ $16.86 ($6.50 cost/per)
  • 4x Sulfur Falls @ $9.28 ($4.50 cost/per)
  • Sower of Temptation @ $25.84 (pack opened)
  • 2x Magus of the Moon @ $17.86 ($4 cost/per)
  • 2x Descent of the Dragons @ $2.10 ($2.50 cost/per)
  • 2x Aven Mindcensor @ $10.37 (pack opened)

The recent modern spikes have been very kind to those of us already holding deep portfolios of staples. As you can see above, I’ve been able to continuously unload small clusters of cards from my collection through the use of the Pucatrade economy. Some of these cards (Sulfur Falls, Thicket, Academy Ruins) have some room to run, but I’m happy to lock in profits now in my pursuit of a larger deal. I’m now up to $1500 in Pucapoints and looking to complete a major transaction shortly.

 

Corbin Hosler (@Chosler88)

BOUGHT

  • 20x Nettle Sentinels @ .90 apiece

 

Editor’s Note: This was a play on the popularity of the Elves deck in Modern.

Guo Heng Chin (@theguoheng)

  • 3 x Risen Executioner @ $1.87 per
  • 1 x Painter’s Servant @ $8.83
  • 1 x Pact of Negation @$18.45
  • 1 x Pact of Negation @ $16.05

Guo says:

“Risen Executioner was the pick of the week in a Brainstorm Brewery episode a while back. The Brew Crew thought the zombie lord was a good pick at its current price as the card has long-term growth potential from casual demand. The recurring zombie lord is also found in the sideboard of Esper Dragons as a hard to deal with threat brought in for grindy matches and the acquisition was also for my own use when I get back to playing Esper Dragons in Standard once the Modern PPTQ season ends.

The Painter’s Servant was for a fun Tron build I’ve been itching to try out for a while. Check out this funky Tron/Through the Breach build by Tani Chiharu which top 4ed a 43-player Modern event in Tokyo: http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=9272&d=253286&f=MO. Ugin and Painter’s Servant do a good impression of Obliterate, except that I would be left with a mighty planeswalker. I’m still looking for a couple of pieces myself, so I have yet to try it out, but I think it’s probably going to be a fun deck rather than a deck I would bring to events.

The Pact of Negations were for the sideboard of the deck I am running at FNMs and PPTQs and Grand Prix Singapore next week. Take a wild guess what deck it is. The second Pact was slightly cheaper courtesy of a friend.”

Note: The rest of the guys were quiet this week.

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

ADVERTISEMENT: Get the Cube Starter Bundle with the 3rd Edition Grimoire Deck Box, the brand new Grimoire Deck Box designed specifically for the red mage in you.

 

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY