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Legacy Hero #10

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I’m back. I don’t know how many people have been waiting for my next update but work got in the way. So much has happened in the magic world since I’ve been gone. The time spent away has taught me really how fast the finance market changes. Without much opportunity to trade lately I wanted to give a recap of where Legacy Hero stands and what I’m going to try and do in the near future.

I’ve had the chance to read a few things magic related while waiting to board a plane but generally, I needed the sleep more than the in-flight wifi. I missed pre-ordering any Fate Reforged but I’m not too upset about it. I try and avoid pre-ordering things in general. The Jace effect is real. (If you’ve not heard this term before, then: remember Jace, the Mind Sculptor? It wasn’t always such an expensive card. In fact, at release you could pick up copies at prices that now seem unbelievably low. But of course once people figured out how good Jace really was (coupled with being a second-set mythic with reduced supply from drafting due to A) the following third set being standalone and B) ZEN/ZEN/WWK being a miserable draft format), the price went through the roof. A lot of people felt very foolish for having sold Jaces so low. And so now, out of fear of missing “the next Jace”, pre-order and release-day prices of planeswalkers tend to be significantly inflated, with planeswalkers who have even a hint of play-ability being ludicrously inflated.*) Looking at the spoilers of Dragons of Tarkir so far I want to believe that the new Narset is going to fall into the same trap, but I’ve been wrong plenty in the past.

I don’t really play standard so I don’t have a pressing need for any of the new cards for a deck. However, I always manage to draft. A lot. Drafting gives me a great chance to get the cards I want without having to spend the money on singles.Spending the $12 on a draft that is going to entertain me for the day is great. My regular draft group doesn’t even play constructed. A couple of them play EDH but that doesn’t change the opportunities available for me to make a little profit. Having this kind of play group gives me a little bit of an advantage since (financially speaking) they’re only looking for another draft. But that only helps me if I’m there.

I haven’t played a game of magic in a while. I don’t know how many of you travel for work but if you do and you find yourself with a couple hours to spare, don’t try and use the Wizards Store Locator. It’s terrible. I tried chasing down a couple of stores but they either didn’t exist or Google Maps is the worst creation ever. Could be both. I did manage to stumble across one bookstore that used to sell magic but it had fallen out of favor with the locals. Normally, this is the opportunity that I would pay for. Being able to dust off a stores collection that hasn’t seen the light of day in god knows how long is how urban legends are born. This isn’t one of those stories. I spent an hour sifting through 8th and 9th edition bulk without finding even a Choke or Kird Ape. (In hindsight I passed on some Summer Blooms but Amulet Bloom hadn’t surprised at the Pro Tour yet) I did find something that was pretty neat. The older guy behind the counter said he had a small box of loose booster packs. He had a couple packs of Planeshift, a pack of Apocalypse, two packs of Betrayers of Kamigawa, and a open starter deck (but the cards were still sealed) labeled “Rattennest.” I don’t speak German but I knew that this was the theme deck that had Umezawa’s Jitte in it. His asking price was $40 for the box of packs. After a little negotiation I walked out of there paying $25 for

2 packs of Planeshift

1 pack of Apocalypse

2 packs of Betrayers of Kamigawa

1 theme deck ‘Rattennest” (German)

I can probably sell the theme deck on eBay for $50 and the packs I should get an average of $7 each for a total of $85 so roughly $50 profit after fees. I need a Jitte for the Stoneblade deck but I prefer to play competitive magic using non foil English cards though, so I will be selling the deck as a whole. That way I can profit and hopefully trade for a beat up English one.

Originally this article was going to be sort of a State of the Union type article because of the time I’ve been away until I reviewed my last few articles. Seems like they cover things pretty well. I mentioned that I was going to talk about trading outside the US but after looking over my notes, I realized that the topic is too deep for this installment.  It really deserves it’s own article entirely.

I was asked a few times recently about how I make ‘money’ with this and how I expect to trade up for the expensive cards like dual lands and such with ‘specs’ and nickel and dime stuff. I even received an email telling me that this whole Legacy Hero endeavor is a big waste of time. I’m not going to paste the whole email here but I will address a few of the legit points that were raised. I’m paraphrasing the points to clean things up.

“By the time you get the cards(if you even do) the deck you’ve built isn’t going to be relevant to the meta.”.  This would be a legitimate issue if I was married to a specific deck list. I’m pretty sure that I’ve mentioned before that I’m building a specific archetype, not a specific list. The archetypes in legacy are pretty consistent. The core of the decks are the same. Of course I will tune the deck based on the current meta. Yes, the original deck list(s) that I’ve posted are outdated due to the banning of Treasure Cruise but that is okay. Stoneblade isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

“What makes you an expert?” I’m not an expert. I don’t earn my living buying and selling cards. I’ve been subsidizing my personal magic endeavors using ‘magic finance’ since I met one of the best in the business, Ryan Bushard  some years ago and listening to what he had to say. He introduced me to the very core of of mtg finance and that foundation literally changed my world. I don’t think I can ever thank him enough for everything he’s done for me. I could probably write an entire article singing his praises but you guys aren’t interested in that. That chance meeting led me to the man I call the Godfather, Jonathan Medina. I didn’t get to pick his brain nearly as much as Ryan but he really drove home the lesson of ‘Take your money now’ instead of the natural impulse of waiting for that last dollar. The tips, tricks, and tools these guys showed me a side of things that gives me an edge over the average guy in the shop but I don’t hold a candle to the true experts.

I want this whole series to show people that an average guy can do the things you read about on social media or hear about at the IQ. I want to show that I can grind my way into a legacy deck and you can too. Medina’s FNM Hero series is where I got the idea for this project. I was talking with another legend of the past, Mark Sun once upon a time about getting more people into legacy and his idea was to showcase budget legacy decks but I thought that the Legacy Hero concept was the way to go. Showing everyone the that the grind is possible will get more people on the bandwagon.

“If you already have the cards, why are you trading for them again? Why would anyone trade with you to help your legacy deck? ” I guess this is as good of a place as any to tell everyone that when I sent in my original submission to mtgprice.com I had planned on giving the deck and leftover trades away to someone that deserves it. The details of this will be announced later on but just know that this whole project will end well. It isn’t about me here.

That’s all I have for this week. Thanks for all of the feedback. I like to think that I was missed but I won’t be taking any extended breaks in the foreseeable future. This weekend will be my first visit to my local shops since I’ve been back. I hope to have some awesome trades to tell you guys about next week. I will be spending my store credit with Channel Fireball this weekend so I can try and turn that into some value. Anyone interested in buying/trading for a German Rattennest Theme deck, give me a shout.

Thanks again for reading!

@somethingsays on twitter

mtglegacyhero at the gmail

City of Traders

Time is(n’t) Fleeting

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By: Travis Allen

Did you know Tim Curry hates to discuss the Rocky Horror Picture Show? Apparently he was afraid he’d be typecast. He mostly refused to discuss it for years, even neglecting to appear in the Glee homage alongside other original film cast members. It’s a shame, because the movie is great fun, and Time Warp in particular is such an excellent tune. If you’re ever looking for a way to entertain yourself on a Friday or Saturday night, find yourself a Rocky Horror Picture Show screening nearby and take in the wackiness. In fact, it’s the most well-known and perhaps first cult classic midnight film.

What does a track from a movie with some unfortunately archaic social terms have to do with Magic? Why, today we’re going to be chatting about Time Warp. (And similar Time Warp effects.)

Time Walk effects have a long history in Magic, all the way back to the eponymous card in Alpha. Wizards has since realized that two mana isn’t a fair cost for taking extra turns, but even at a much greater rate, people are still interested. Every few sets a Time Walk effect shows up with some twist that typically involves one of the set’s mechanics. They’re often (although not always) not good enough for Standard, though there’s an ever-present contingent in other formats that pay more attention. At the very least, there is no shortage of EDH decks that enjoy jamming as many extra turn effects into their ninety-nine as they can manage, much to the chagrin of everyone forced to endure their company. Let’s take a look at all the cards with the text “extra turn” on them in Modern.

                 

Before we get much further, I want to look at how many times each one has been printed…oh, that was quick. Out of all of those, only three cards were printed more than once – Time Stretch, Time Warp, and Emrakul. All the rest have only a single printing to their name. This is especially impressive considering how old some of these are. Two of them are from Mirrodin, the first Modern block. This gives us our first monetary incentive: Wizards apparently does not like reprinting these. Even the ones that were reprinted were done so quite awhile ago. Time Stretch is from Odyssey and 10th edition, and the last time Time Warp was printed was nearly six years ago. Given WotC’s reluctance to reprint these types of cards, especially in recent years, extra turn effects appear quite safe from an investment standpoint. Reprints are the most dangerous aspect of holding onto cards for longer periods of time, and these seem relatively insulated from that threat. 

As for the character of the cards, some are quite straight forward – Time Warp – while others require you to jump through quite a few hoops, such as Wanderwine Prophet. Wordiness seems to be mildly negatively correlated with value. Time Warp and Time Stretch, two of the most simple, are also two of the most expensive. Wanderwine Prophet and Notorious Throng are novels and are both under a dollar. It’s not a hard and fast rule though, as Lighthouse Chronologist’s $10 price tag does buck the trend a little bit with the word-light but rules-heavy Level Up mechanic. Here’s the complete list, sorted by descending cost: 

Emrakul, the Aeons Torn: $51
Time Warp: $14
Lighthouse Chronologist: $9
Time Stretch: $8
Beacon of Tomorrows: $6
Temporal Mastery: $6
Ral Zarek: $6
Walk the Aeons: $4
Temporal Extortion: $3
Stitch in Time: $3
Temporal Trespass: $2
Sage of Hours: $2
Savor the Moment: $2
Time Sieve: $2
Magosi, the Waterveil: <$1
Medomai the Ageless: <$1
Notorious Throng: <$1
Search the City: <$1
Timesifter: <$1
Ugin’s Nexus: <$1
Wanderwine Prophets: <$1

Emrakul as the runaway most expensive card isn’t too surprising. There’s a lot more to that card than the extra turn clause though, so we’re mostly counting him out from our examination today. Time Warp in second place doesn’t surprise me much either, as it’s clean, reasonably costed, and has actually been competitive or at least semi-competitive in Standard and Modern in the past. I am a bit surprised by the third-most expensive card being Lighthouse Chronologist. I assume this is based heavily on EDH. It’s easy to generate a pile of mana in that format, which means you can resolve and crank him to level seven in a single turn. If there aren’t any counterspells or spot removal available at the moment, you get to start taking turns at a 4:1 ratio compared to everyone else.

The Chaff

Down towards the bottom are cards that are new, terrible, difficult to use, or some combination thereof. Wanderwine Prophets requires a great deal to go right, and also prices you into Merfolk, a tribe without much casual appeal.

Ugin’s Nexus, Temporal Trespass, and Sage of Hours are brand new, and are still too liquid in the market to see price increases yet. We’ll come back to the latter two later. Search the City is also very new, but also very bad, and perhaps most importantly, actually impossible to use in EDH.

Timesifter is the real reason Sensei’s Divining Top is banned. We all know that if Top were legal Timesifter would be ruining the format.

Just kidding, the card is nigh-unplayable since you can end up giving free turns to your opponents if you aren’t in control of the top card of both libraries, or at are at least capable of floating high spells to the top of yours each turn. It is a curious spec target though, if you’re the real gambling type. I don’t know what the world looks like where this card is actually good in Modern or Legacy, but if someone Summer Blooms it, it would jump 100-fold.

Notorious Throng, like Wanderwine Prophets, is complicated, difficult to activate, and forces you into a tribe that cultivates no enthusiasm.

Magosi is currently unplayable, as it requires you to skip your turn to utilize it. There is almost potential – give your opponent an extra turn, but then begin proliferating the eon counter so you can take infinite turns – except that it requires you to return the land to your hand. A trick may exist to generate infinite turns with multiple Magosis, proliferate, and moving counters, but that’s going to be much too convoluted for anyone but the most die-hard kitchen table combo players to be too interested.

Medomai is cheap and brand new, but is better than all of the other sub-$1 effects. You don’t have to jump through too many hoops for an extra turn, and there’s ways to cheat around his restriction by bouncing him each turn and using some effect to put him into play tapped and attacking. He’s from Theros, a widely opened set, although he’s a mythic, which is what we want to see if we’re buying in. I wouldn’t feel bad about taking this guy as a throw-in, as the upside could be considerable some time later. 

Time Sieve is a potentially powerful card, although it hasn’t found a home in Modern yet. That’s likely because any deck that can sacrifice and recur artifacts doesn’t need Time Sieve for help. Once that chain begins, you can just kill people with Emrakul or Bitter Ordeal or what have you. It also doesn’t seem to have struck a chord with casual players. Newer or casual players don’t tend to view sacrificing as a benefit, so Sieve may scare them off with what appears to be a huge cost. 

Temporal Extortion isn’t really a Time Walk per se, as you aren’t guaranteed the extra turn. It still carries a $3 price tag, mostly due to some players highly overrating punisher mechanics. Overall it’s not in the vein of what we’re interested in today. 

Stitch in Time suffers from the same problem that Temporal Extortion does, in that it doesn’t guarantee you extra turns even if it resolves. The coin flip aspect of the card draws some players in, but it’s not a “true” extra turn effect in the way that most other cards on this list are. 

Savor the Moment is more on our radar than most of these other inexpensive effects. At three mana it’s the cheapest Time Walk short of Time Walk. It comes with an obvious and fairly large drawback of not being unable to untap at the start of your turn, effectively rendering it a pricey Explore. If there’s a way to ignore the lack of an untap step this could eventually become a combo piece in Modern or Legacy though. I don’t know what that card or cards looks like, but it is conceivable such a thing could come to be. 

While Ral Zarek may say “extra turn,” that isn’t the main draw of the card. His Planeswalkeryness counts much more for any price tag than the extra turn aspect of his ultimate. 

The Payoff

Temporal Mastery, Beacon of Tomorrows, Time Stretch, and Walk the Aeons are what got me thinking about this discussion. 

temp mast

Temporal Mastery bottomed out about a year and a half ago below $4, and has since started climbing. A spread of roughly 30% isn’t remarkable, but it isn’t shameful either. With today’s price tag of Time Warp, I’m holding out hope for this one in the long term. It doesn’t see much competitive play at the moment, but remember that it did in fact win a Pro Tour. A single good Brainstorm-esque effect that let you put cards from your hand back on top of your library could quickly catapult this to Modern fame. It also floats around the fringes of Legacy playability becase of Sensei’s Divining Top, the most potent Miracle-enabler in existence. The Miracles deck hasn’t been interested so far because the deck isn’t poised to really take advantage of extra turns, but I don’t doubt that eventually some deck will be, and Temporal Mastery will catch in a big way. 

beacon

Beacon of Tomorrows has had a slow, sustainable growth for some time now. Three years ago it was a little over $2, and today it’s over seven, with a spread of about 30%. This type of growth isn’t awe-inspiring, but it’s consistent, and it’s consistent on a card with little appeal outside of EDH. Beacon isn’t competitive in any real format, and casual players are likely to be drawn towards cheaper effects such as Time Warp. This tells us the card is growing (slowly) with a fairly low demand profile. This doesn’t inspire us to buy into Beacon, but it does tell us that you don’t need much demand for these types of effects to grow. 

stretchOdyssey Time Stretch has grown about 60% since 2012, with a current price tag of $6.50. The 10th edition copy is in roughly the same boat at $7.50. Both also have spreads similar to Temporal Mastery and Beacon of Tomorrows.

Time Stretch is the most savage Time Walk in EDH, with two turns stapled onto one card. This makes any sort of recursion with the card much more potent, whether you’re doing something mundane like returning it with Eternal Witness, or something that will get you kicked out of EDH circles, like copying it with Riku. (And then copying an Eternal Witness, getting back the Time Stretch and something that bounces the Eternal Witness.) The card hasn’t seen any major spikes, and like Beacon the growth has been slow, but like Beacon it’s also been consistent. We’re seeing a trend here – straightforward extra turn sorceries seem to land at at least $6. 

walk

Walk the Aeons is an example of what happens when a Time Walk effect that looks like crap ends up finding a home. (In this case, it’s in Modern Turbo Fog lists.) When you can play four lands a turn, you’re drawing four or five cards a turn, and you’re constantly shuffling your graveyard into your library, the “sac three lands” clause doesn’t feel too bad. 

What we’re seeing here is a card with a very small demand profile outside of Modern jumping four to sevenfold. Most EDH and casual decks that want extra turns aren’t equipped to deal with the constraints of this card, making it purely a combo piece at this point. This is worth noting for Savor the Moment. It’s an extra turn effect that doesn’t seem that good on the surface, but a deck that can make it worth will at least triple the price. 

Let’s get back to those other two that I only mentioned briefly earlier – Temporal Trespass and Sage of Hours. 

Temporal Trespass falls somewhere between Walk the Aeons and Magosi the Waterveil. With a potential cost of UUU it can theoretically be cheaper than basically any non-power Time Walk. However, the fact that it exiles itself makes it very difficult to break this in combo decks. You’re likely only ever getting one turn off each copy of this card, and multiple copies are going to be very difficult to cast. Overall, the outlook for Trespass is quite poor. 

Sage of Hours, on the other hand, is something special. A full disclosure: I have copies stashed away, so I do stand to gain if it rises in value. Why do I like Sage? 

He shares form with Lighthouse Chronologist, which is second only to Time Warp itself. You undeniably have to put in some work to get a return – those counters aren’t showing up for free, and it’s going to cost more than whatever spare blue mana you have lying around to start taking extra turns. The flip side of that is that the payoff is potentially larger than anything else examined so far. Where Chronologist will get you turns at a 4:1 rate, Sage will just make infinite turns with Ajani, Mentor of Heroes and Doubling Season. Any novice EDH player will tell you that there is no shortage of other ways to accomplish this as well.

Even if you aren’t shooting for infinite, he’s constantly threatening to give his controller at least one extra turn, and sometimes more than that. Perhaps the best part is his print run – he’s a mythic in an underwhelming small spring set that was overshadowed a month later by the release of Conspiracy. If your goal was to put as few copies of Sage of Hours into the market as possible, you couldn’t pick a better set. 

He should play reasonably well in kitchen table Magic, where everyone lives in Magical Christmas Land and removal tends to be sparse. EDH players should cozy up to him, at least the +1/+1 counter brigade. And finally he has an outside chance of being playable in Modern or Legacy combo of some sort. If that sounds ridiculous, just remember that Dark Depths used to be one dollar because everyone thought it was absolute garbage, and then they printed Vampire Hexmage. 

Aside from the Judge printing of Time Warp, no extra turn effect has appeared in the Modern border twice. All of the cards granting extra turns that are at least mildly playable have risen beyond bulk, and the ones that find homes in EDH, casual decks, or combo jump into the $6-$15 range. Overall, it seems Time Warps are reasonable pickups, with Sage of Hours being the spiciest of the bunch right now. I’d be surprised if this isn’t $5 within a year or so, and I don’t think $10 is out of the question. Meanwhile, Temporal Mastery is still appealing as a trade pickup, and I wouldn’t turn my nose up at Savor the Moments either. 

Most of these cards may not see the splashiest rises in prices, but they are rock solid in value, and not a single one has dropped in price. The next time you’re browsing someone’s binder looking for something to fill up a trade, consider taking a moment for yourself.

 

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The Dragon Tempest Begins

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By Guo Heng Chin

It has begun. The first set of spoilers for the dragoniest dragon-filled set started spilling out of the Dragon Tempest yesterday, as we traveled back to the present, changed timeline in a plane of Tarkir ruled by dragons rather than khans.  I have not been so excited for a new set before; it’s a whole set filled with dragons! It’s like a manifestation of my wildest dreams when I first started Magic as a 10-year old kid.

I imagine quite a number of players around the world share the same sentiment as me in regards to Dragons of Tarkir. After all, dragon is by far the most popular creature type among the player base:

Players like Dragons. Really like Dragons. No, really, really like Dragons. They are by far the most popular creature type we do. It’s the reason, for example, we made the first From the Vault box set with a dragon theme.

– Mark Rosewater

Cute or Playable?

Dragons has always been the domain of casuals and Timmies. Since Brian Kibler made top four of Pro Tour Chicago in 2000 with Rith, the Awakener and earned the venerable title of Dragonmaster, dragons have rarely graced the top tables, let alone tournament tables. We saw incessant caws, but no dragons.

It all changed with Thundermaw Hellkite in 2012.

“My goal was to create a Dragon that was to Dragons what Baneslayer Angel was to Angels. I wanted the set to have a Dragon that set the standard for a badass Dragon.”

– Doug Beyer, Lead Designer, Magic 2013

And a badass dragon Thundermaw Hellkite was. After an initial lull during its first six months of existence in a meta highly saturated with Snapcaster Mage and Vapor Snag, Thundermaw became a Standard staple ran in playsets across numerous archetypes and its price peaked at $40  for a couple of months.

Stormbreath Dragon came next. Being under Thundermaw ‘s shadow wasn’t easy, but Stormbreath Dragon’s initially cool reception thawed off as it proved to be the curve-topper of choice for decks with access to red. After all, a 4/4 hasty flier with protection from white and an option to transform into a gigantic 7/7 can’t be too bad. Stormbreath even saw occasional Modern play.

All Hail the Dragonlord

Will Dragons of Tarkir bring us more playable dragons? The design vision extolled in Mark Gottlieb’s article certainly suggested so.

It has been less than 24 hours since the Dragons of Tarkir hype engine started revving, and we already have a very playable dragon in the form of a wizened Silumgar:

Since he stopped drifting, Silumgar began to put on a belly.
Since he stopped drifting, Silumgar began to put on a belly.

Playable casting cost? Certainly. Playable stats? Let see, Dragonlord Silumgar dodges Elspeth, Sun’s Champion (again. Sorry Ms. Tirel), he dodges Stoke the Flames and wins a head on collision with Stormbreath Dragon and Wingmate Roc. Heck, Silumgar could even chump Siege Rhino and Tasigur, the Golden Fang (Vorthoses would know) all day long. Well, devour is probably a more suitable word here, seeing that Dragonlord Silumgar has deathtouch. Playability checked.

Awesome enter the battlefield ability? Dragonlord Silumgar is Sower of Temptation on steroids. If you can’t kill em’ steal em’. Sleazy Silumgar allegedly has the charisma to persuade even the game-breaking Ugin, the Spirit Dragon and Elspeth, Sun’s Champion to his cause.

Dragonlord Silumgar is the ideal card to break open those grindy midrange and control mirrors. He is not just an answer, but also a formidable threat by himself and I imagine plenty of games would be decided by a topdecked Dragonlord Silumgar stealing an opposing planeswalker.

There is a good probability that Dragonlord Silumgar will see play in Standard. For a card chock full of value, he seems to be a perfect fit in Sultai Lord Gerard Fabiano’s Sultai Control that aims to outgrind opponents in value.

Silumgar’s flexible enter-the-battlefield trigger and his stats that enable him to take down most popular standard fatties could warrant a couple of mainboard slots, but I don’t imagine seeing decks go for the full playset due to Silumgar’s high casting cost. But I could be wrong.  Silumgar makes for a pretty good sideboard card as well, both in UB Control and Sultai variants.

While I am confident about Dragonlord Silumgar’s Standard playability, I am doubtful about his place in Modern. Six casting cost is just much of an investment, especially with all the Path to Exile flying around. That is assuming that Gerard Fabiano does not break it. After all he just took down StarCityGame’s first Modern Open at Baltimore with Sultai. Can that man ever lose with Sultai?

The Price of a Dragonlord

Dragonlord Silumgar is currently going for $9 on ChannelFireball, $10 on StarCityGames and closing at $11 – 13 on eBay.  Which seem a bit on the cheap side to me. Dragons of Tarkir will be drafted for just eight weeks before Modern Masters 2015 hit the shelves on 22 May.

For the purpose of calculation, let’s assume that Dragons of Tarkir-Fate Reforged draft would grind to a halt when Modern Masters 2015 is released. That means we would have opened eight weeks worth of Dragons of Tarkir and 17 weeks worth of Fate Reforged. As we would be drafting two Dragons of Tarkir with a single Fate Reforged booster, the number of Dragons of Tarkir booster opened would be about the same as the number of Fate Reforged boosters over their draft span.

Another thing to note is that while the one in eight packs probability of opening a mythic is the same in both large and small sets due to the different size of print sheets used in large and small sets, the probability of opening a particular mythic is lower in a large set. Small sets contain ten mythics while large sets have fifteen.

That means Dragonlord Silumgar, and other mythics in Dragons of Tarkir would be opened less than Fate Reforged mythics! Because we are opening two packs of Dragons for each pack of Fate Reforged, it is easy to mistakenly assume that the supply of a particular Dragons of Tarkir mythic would be higher than those in Fate Reforged.

Watch out for the price of any playable Dragonlords.

If Dragonlord Silumgar turns out to be Standard playable as predicted, a $15 tag would not be too far-fetched.

Another reason $10 seems too cheap for Dragonlord Silumgar is the fact that he is an Elder Dragon creature type. There have only been five creatures in existence that are of the hallowed Elder Dragon creature type; there are more Gods than there are Elder Dragons. Dragonlord Silumgar being an Elder Dragon is a big flavor-win and I do imagine that  fact alone would exude a higher than usual level of appeal to the casual crowd. And we all know never to underestimate casual demand as a price driver.

On the other side of the casual demand coin, I struggle to picture Dragonlord  Silumgar as a popular Commander. I can see him as on of the 99, but his ability does not feel abusable in Commander.

Too bad Elder Dragon Highlander evolved into Commander years ago. Imagine the price of foil Dragonlord Silumgars if we were still playing according to the original Elder Dragon Highlander rules where you can only use Elder Dragons as your ‘commander’.

Being an Elder Dragon does have one gameplay downside; my Cavern of Souls will no longer be a catchall in my dragon-centric Commander deck.

I was wrong about that. Reader kraeuterbuddha pointed out Mark Rosewater’s answer on the topic: turns out that Elder Dragons are considered both ‘Elder’ and ‘Dragon’ when it comes to their creature type. Thanks kraeuterbuddha!

Thundermaw… I mean Thunderbreak

Thundermawの小さないとこ
Thundermawの小さないとこ

The English card image is not up yet as of writing. The text is as follows, courtesy of MythicSpoiler.com:

Thunderbreak Regent
2RR
Creature – Dragon
FlyingWhenever a dragon you control becomes the target of a spell or ability your opponent controls, Thunderbreak Regent deals 3 damage to that player.

Let’s see, it’s a  4/4 flying body at playable casting cost that trades up with Stormbreath and Wingmate Roc (3/4 seems to be a lousy spot to be in a dragon-filled Tarkir) and trades on parity with Butcher of the Horde, which is harder to cast.

Thunderbreak Regent also Lightning Bolts opponents who attempts to remove it out of creature combat or mass removal. It is a threat the deals damage, regardless whether it is answered or not, the kind of cards that puts your opponents in a catch-22 situation.

I am no red mage, but Thunderbreak Regent sounds like a pretty good card in aggressive red decks as a follow up to Flamewake Phoenix, not to mention it triggers Flamewake’s ferocious too. Thunderbreak would be a superior choice over Ashcloud Phoenix for decks aiming to achieve the highest damage possible in the least number of turns.

Thunderbreak Regent’s price trajectory would probably be similar to that of Flamewake Phoenix: starting at around$4-$5 before settling down at $2-$3.

The Hype Train Continues…

The next couple of weeks look to be a two week-long Christmas as Wizards drop a dragon or two down our chimney, when the clock strikes 0800 PST every day.

Will the enemy-colored fetchlands finally see a reprint in Dragons of Tarkir? Certain passages from last week’s A Tarkir of Dragons hints at enemy-colored fetches in Dragons of Tarkir as it is an alternate timeline. Are we going to see enemy-colored fetches with a reversed version of the flavor texts in the ally-colored fetches as suggested by Redditor /u/daberu?

The revelation that Dragons of Tarkir will feature ally-colored pairs certainly hurt the probability of seeing enemy-colored fetches in Dragons of Tarkir. The initial idea was to have enemy-colored clans, but it was changed to create a fresh draft experience; would there be a chance that the fetchlands remained?

I also agree that from a financial perspective, there is little excuse for Wizards to include magic sales-bullet in a set that is pretty much going to fly off the shelves. Because dragons.

I guess we would find out in a week or two if we would be cracking Scalding Tarns and Verdant Catacombs in Dragons of Tarkir Standard.

Also, are we going to get a Narset planeswalker? And another Sarkhan!

With the pervasiveness of Dragons in the set, is it too much to hope for a tiny, three casting cost legendary dragon? I bet there were plenty of other players besides me whose wildest (Magic) fantasy was a dragon set and that came true. Is it too wistful to wish for a legendary dragon that I can use as my leader in Tiny Leaders? Would the Dragonlords not need to groom their royal successors from a tender young age?

In the mean time, we shall wait and see what the dragon tempest brings us daily. I for one welcome our Dragonlords.

 

Uncategorized

WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: March 2nd/15

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

5 Winners of the Week

1. Whisperwood Elemental (Fate Reforged, Mythic): $9.15 to $12.15 (33%)

From last week:

“Green was already the default best color in standard before Fate Reforged rolled up and dropped this sweet threat onto the table. Though many were dubious at first, recent showings at big standard tournaments has demonstrated that Whisperwood Elemental is an excellent way to close out games fast if your opponent isn’t packing enough removal. In partnership with Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, and various mana dorks, this heavy hitter provides especially tricky scenarios for both aggro and control decks who will often have trouble going just one for one with the lord of the groves.  With FRF not likely to be as opened as many other sets, there’s a good chance that this one falls off a bit heading into summer, only to rise again at rotation. As such you can sell now if you got in early and don’t need them to play with. Otherwise, you’re safe to hold into fall.”

More of the same. The card is seeing lots of play and you can hold to play or sell to profit as you desire.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold/Sell

2. Summoner’s Pact (Future Sight, Rare): $6.51 to $8.46 (30%)

Along with Amulet of Vigor, Primeval Titan, Pact of Negation and Hive Mind, pretty much all of the relevant cards in the Amulet Bloom deck have spiked by this point as it becomes more and more clear that the deck is Tier 1 despite being tough to master the play lines. Of the bunch, Pact of Negation and Summoner’s Pact are the least likely to get banned and the most likely to have additional applications in future decks. They’re also unlikely to be reprinted again any time soon since they both appeared in Modern Masters. As such there may be upside left to be found on both cards, with Summoner’s Pact potentially peaking around $15 in if stays relevant in Modern. I’m not holding any beyond my personal play set, but if you had some tucked away, I’d look to get out around $10 before mid-summer if possible.

Format(s): Modern/EDH

Verdict: Hold

3. Leonin Shikari (Darksteel, Rare): $6.55 to $8.23 (26%)

This card is spiking on Tiny Leaders speculation. The assumption is that the card is going to be great with friends such as Stoneforge Mystic, the 5 super swords and other white equipment specific beaters under 3 casting cost. It could push higher later as the supply is relatively limited, but for now should settle south of $10 until Tiny Leaders demand really gets beyond the speculation phase and enough players have their decks made.

Format(s): Tiny Leaders/Casual

Verdict: Hold

4. Genesis Hydra ( M15, Rare): $2.09 to $2.52 (21%)

I’ve got about 20 of these so I’d love to see this guy spike hard before rotating into irrelevancy but I’m not holding my breath despite this reasonable increase after showing up in the new versions of green devotion in Standard recently. It’s too low to be worth selling, but if it hits $4-5, my ears might perk up.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold

5. Garruk, Apex Predator: $11.09 to $13.36 (20%)

Having fallen down from $30 highs on release, Garruk is enjoying a mild resurgence as a solid answer for Abzan and Sultai builds looking to contain Ugin, the Spirit Dragon or grind out longer games in Standard. Below $10 he was midly sexy, as he isn’t likely to see a reprint anytime soon and could hit $15-20 in a couple of years on limited supply, but we might as well wait until rotation this fall to snap off some copies in the $6-8 range.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Sell

 3 Top Losers of the Week

This weeks losers are all just recently spiked cards that have fallen back a bit off recent highs as hype mellows. To wit:

1. Amulet of Vigor: $7.63 to $6.00 (-21%)

2. Wilt-Leaf Liege: $33.76 to $27.00 (-20%)

3. Doubling Season: $29.00 to $24.55 (15%)

Quick Hits

  • Believe it or not, as of this morning we’ve already entered Dragons of Tarkir spoiler season. So far the most interesting card is probably Sidisi, Undead Vizier. StarCityGames.com continued their trend of providing tempting pricing on newly spoiled rares to get the hype train rolling, and some of us got our hands on pre-order copies around $1 this afternoon. Expect this one to settle in between $4-5 as people try to figure out if this Tasigur/Whisperwood good or just a trap card. My money is on “very good” as I don’t think we should underestimate just how much decks like Sultai Control will appreciate the ability to ramp out and drop this guy on Turn 3/4, sacrifice a mana dork that has outlived it’s usefulness and go search up the perfect answer to the current board state. As a 4/6 Deathtouch, this incarnation of Sidisi is also great at blocking all the usual suspects and fuels Delve spells. As such this is could be an easy 3-4 of in a few decks.
  • Now is a pretty good time to be ordering yourself some playsets of KTK fetchlands for future use or profit in the $210-$220 range. as this is as low as it looks like they’re likely to go. We won’t be getting any more fetchlands until at least Modern Masters 2 and if I had to guess, they’ll actually be delayed until a spring or fall 2016 Return to Zendikar block, so get while the getting is good. Foils also look tasty at all-time lows.
  • It’s possible that there are some Dragon cards you should be giving a 2nd look at given what’s coming in DoT. Cards like See the Unwritten and Atarka have room to spike if they end up great in a shifting metagame.
  • If you’re looking for any big ticket items, you might want to check on inventory with FacetoFace Games or 401 Games in Toronto and Montreal. Many of the Canadian stores haven’t quite caught up on repricing their cards after a recent 20%+ currency shift and there are plenty of deals to be had if you’re paying in US dollars on your credit cards or via Paypal.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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