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Pro Tour Fate Reforged Financial Gauntlet & Tiny Leaders Tournament Report

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By Guo Heng Chin

I initially planned to write solely about cards to watch during Pro Tour Fate Reforged. However, I’ve had the chance to participate in the first ever Tiny Leaders tournament  in Malaysia over the weekend and friend and fellow Magic player @rezaaba convinced me that I should probably do a report on the event. So today’s article is going to be a two-in-one (talk about value for your time): the first portion discusses the cards which I am keeping an eye on as we count down towards the Pro Tour this weekend and throughout the Pro Tour. The second segment would be a round-by-round report of the Tiny Leaders tournament I attended.

Throwing My Hat into the Ring

The following are cards are possibly undervalued at the moment in terms of their price in relation to the amount of play they currently see and could potentially see. These are cards that could experience a spike if decks they running them performs at the Pro Tour.

Data on the post-ban metagame is sparse, with only five Modern Daily Events (the bans were enforced on Magic Online from 28 January onwards) and two StarCityGames Premier IQs. Going through the data, there is one deck that stood out, Amulet Bloom. It took down last weekend’s StarCityGames Premier IQ and is the most successful combo deck in the Modern Daily Events, comprising of 4.6% of the field. The deck is not exactly dominant, but it seems that reports of the death of Amulet Bloom have been greatly exaggerated. The deck is of interest financially because the namesake card of the deck could spike in price if Amulet Bloom spikes Pro Tour Fate Reforged.

Ain't nobody got time for coming into play tapped.
Ain’t nobody got time for coming into play tapped.

Amulet of Vigor is at $3.05 even though the strategy of the archetype hinges on Amulet. If you are looking to invest in Amulet of Vigor, do keep in mind that it would be a short-term investment as Amulet of Vigor is at risk of being reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, although it escapes my mind what sort of limited archetype in Modern Masters would Amulet fit in.

Thalia may be 2/1 but she is a force not to be reckoned with, as her foes soon found out.
Thalia may be 2/1 but she is a force not to be reckoned with, as her foes soon found out.

I often wonder why Thalia, Guardian of Thraben remains so cheap despite the amount of play she is currently seeing in Modern and Legacy. Thalia is present in Modern Hatebears, Modern Death and Taxes and the occasional Modern Zoo. You can also find her in Maverick and Death and Taxes in Legacy. And decks running Thalia want to run three to four copies of her. Most importantly, Thalia is not going to be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, and by the virtue of being the Guardian of Thraben, we are unlikely to find her anywhere else but on the plane of Innistrad.

Seeing that I have been raving about Tiny Leaders lately, it is worth noting that Thalia is also solid leader in the format. Thalia is reputedly a favorite of Bramwell Tackaberry, the progenitor of the Tiny Leaders, and has been topping of the Winnipeg Tiny Leaders scene.

Thalia is a card that would eventually bump up in price as her current price of $4.38 is out of sync with the amount of eternal play she has been seeing. Unfortunately the chance that her price would be bumped by Pro Tour Fate Reforged looks to be slim, for the fact that the Pro Tour metagame is historically skewed towards midrange or blue-based decks. Thalia is a card I consider a good great long-term investment, at least until the following Modern Masters is announced, which we probably would not see until 2017.

I wrote about the next two cards in my article a short while ago. I am revisiting them today as there were new developments during the two weeks that have passed.

Sphinx's RevelationThundermaw Hellkite

Since the announcement of the bans on 19 January, Sphinx’s Revelation spiked on Magic Online from the 9.8 tickets it was hovering at before settling at 16.8 tickets, but remained at $6.18 on paper, which was pretty much the same price it was at when I wrote my previous article. Modern staples are generally cheaper online due to the larger quantity of boosters being drafted online; when a key component of one of the potential new overlords of Modern is nearly three times more expensive online than its paper counterpart, a price correction is inbound. I think it is paper Sphinx’s Revelation that is due for correction, rather than the digital one.

I mentioned in my previous article – before we got any data on the post-ban metagame – that Thundermaw Hellkite would soar once more if Lingering Souls becomes prevalent again. Lingering Souls was ran in 19.8% of all the decks that moneyed the five Modern Daily Events since the bans were implemented on Magic Online and 18.6% of the top 16 decks (3 out of 16) in the StarCityGames IQ in Washington two weeks back (but none in last week’s IQ in Indianapolis as no Abzan Midrange decks made top 16). Lingering Souls has got its staple status reinstated in Abzan Midrange, one of the most popular decks in the post-ban Modern landscape.

Thundermaw Hellkite could very well be a level one tech at the Pro Tour designed to trump Abzan Midrange, which is predicted to be one of the most played tier one decks at the Pro Tour.  Thundermaw Hellkite plays the role as a curve-topper in Jeskai Geist and Big Zoo. If Thundermaw sees a decent amount of play at the Pro Tour, I doubt Thundermaw’s price would remain under $10 as it is now ($9.25 as of writing). If you are looking to invest in Thundermaw Hellkite, it might be best to consider it a short-term investment due to the possibility of reprint in Magic 2016, as I have explained in my previous article.

Chord in a Post-Pod World

The card struck a chord with deck brewers.
The card struck a chord with deck brewers.

As someone who has lived through the era of $40 Chords, I’ve mentioned on multiple occasions that Chord of Calling is unbelievably cheap at the $3.40 it is at right now. While Chord of Calling was discarded by Birthing Pod decks in the final chapter of the archetype’s evolution in favor of a less combo-reliant build, Chord is now a potential saviour of the archetype.

Jay Lansdaal wrote about a few different Pod shells that could be given a breath of new life with Chord of Calling. The lists harked back to the days of yore when Pod decks were combo decks with a beatdown backup plan. Chord of Calling replaced Birthing Pod in helping you assemble the combo pieces, whose tutoring capabilities also imbued the deck with toolbox capabilities.

Chord of Calling was also seen as a playset in Elves, which finished 9th at the recent StarCityGames IQ in Indianapolis. It could be a fluke performance of that archetype, but we are traversing uncharted territory in Modern, a landscape free from the subtly oppressive dominion of Pod decks, and for all we know Elves might actually be viable now.

Domri's stature is misleading in terms of the amount of value he provides.
Domri’s stature is misleading in terms of the amount of value he provides.

Speaking of Birthing Pod replacements,  Domri Rade is another value engine option as featured in Jay Lansdaal’s Kiki Pod Chord shell and Redditor /u/OctilleryLOL‘s iteration of Kiki Chord. Together with Courser of Kruphix, Domri Rade is a beast of an advantage engine. At $6.86, Domri has a lot of room to grow if decks running Domri performs, especially if Kibleresque Zoo decks becomes viable.

Moonshot Card

This new tech has been floating around for a while, but I’ve only stumbled upon it courtesy of Travis Allen‘s tweet.

Seance for value.
Séance for value.

Redditor /u/hp94 did pretty well with the list which possessed favorable matchups against BGx decks and Affinity. Magic Online user RaptureReady went 3 – 1 in a Modern Daily with a slightly modified list after reading the Reddit post.  Like Pod, the deck is chock-full of value creatures, and  to put it in Travis’ word, it is pretty much a Pod deck that runs Séance instead of Birthing Pod. And from what I’ve read, Séancing a Siege Rhino or Mulldrifter is quite a lot of value.

There has yet to be more results since then, though it has only been a little more than a week ago. Séance looks like a legitimate successor to Birthing Pod and at the bulk price of $0.29, it is a card worth keeping an eye  on for the Pro Tour. It does not take much for a relatively old card like Séance to jump.

Tiny Leaders Tournament Report

The first ever Tiny Leaders tournament in Malaysia was held last week. Shout-out to the tournament organiser Kelvin Seow at HQ Sri Petaling for the initiative and the wonderful players who gave their support to the event. The turnout for the event surpassed our expectations: 15 players for a new format in the local Magic scene.

I ran the Anafenza, the Foremost list which I posted at the end of my article last week. The deck drew its inspiration from Modern Pod decks: it attacks from two angles with a beatdown plan A and Melira combo plan B.

Round 1 – Athreos, God of Passage

A few of the players participating in the tournament built their Tiny Leaders the night before just to play in the tournament. Unfortunately, my first round opponent was one of them and I felt bad jamming a refined Abzan list against him. Kudos to him though, for building the deck the night before (if I recall correctly, he heard of the tournament the night before) and coming to support the LGS in their first ever Tiny Leaders tournament.

1-0

Notes from the round: Tiny Leaders is as competitive as non-rotating formats like Modern and Legacy and tuned decks would walk over untuned lists. This should not be viewed as a downside as it applies to Modern and Legacy, and to some extend, Standard as well. Budget options are available for Tiny Leaders, and a good tier one is Anex and Cymede, which I would be writing about in my next article.

Round 2 – Geist of Saint Traft

My second round opponent, Kean ran a well-tuned Geist of Saint Traft list and the power level and fun of Tiny Leaders manifested itself in this match. Game one was a close grind as we exchanged removals for each other’s haymakers. It felt a bit like Legacy: Kean resolved a Stoneforge Mystic searching for his Sword of Feast and Famine, I ripped a Thoughtseize the next turn and got rid of it.

After bashing at me with Geist of Saint Traft and other pesky evasive creatures and building a board position for the kill the next turn, he tapped out and I managed to resolve a Chord of Calling to assemble the Melira combo.

Sideboard: + Wrench Mind, +Council’s Judgement, +Sin Collector, +Cruel Edict, –Scavenging Ooze, –Dismember -Llanowar Elves, -Sword of Feast and Famine

In game two Kean fell on the wrong side of variance as he mulliganed to five and I proceeded to draw Wrench Mind (my Hymn to Tourach) and Thoughtseize.

2-0

Notes from the round: Kean pointed out a poignant observation about how Tiny Leaders differ from Legacy and Modern. Certain color combinations have access to less removals than they usually do due to the singleton nature of Tiny Leaders. My Dark Confidant survived longer than he should have in game one as Kean did not draw into one of his two answers: Swords to Plowshares or Path to Exile. The amount of card I drew off Dark Confidant allowed me to assemble the Melira combo pieces in the nick of time before he could swing for lethal.

Round 3 – Ezuri, Renegade Leader

Ah, the dreaded Elfball deck. Besides Geist of Saint Traft, Ezuri Elfball was the other deck I dedicated the most sideboard slots to. In game one, I was overruned by  elves as I attempted to develop my board position from a slow opening hand.

Sideboard: +Zealous Persecution, +Drown in Sorrow, +Golgari Charm, -Sword of Fire and Ice, -Thoughtseize, -Lingering Souls

In game two I assumed the control role and sandbagged my removals for key creatures like his Elvish lords, Ezuri and any elf that could generate more than one mana. It is difficult to outsize his board position as he is a swarm deck after all. It was a close back-and-forth battle: I thought my chances were good when I managed to connect with a Sword of Feast and Famine-wielding Anafenza, but he has a Reclamation Sage to remove it before shoring up his board position with elves that grew in to outsize my creatures in power and toughness. I took game two one turn away from a whooping 30 damage Elvish alpha strike on the back of the Melira combo.

I got greedy in game three, keeping a hand with Zealous Persecution and Golgari Charm but only one land which was a Wooded Foothills. Most of my opponent’s elves were 1/1 prior to any lords and I reasoned that if I drew one more of my 18 remaining lands, or one of my four mana dorks, I would be able to reset his board twice. Alas, I saw no lands nor mana dorks until he has an Elvish Champion in play and I was quickly dispatched. Thankfully my opponent, Keith ended up taking down the whole tournament and propping up my tiebreakers.

2-1

Notes from the round: Elfball was slower I imagined it to be. The deck still has one of the fastest board-building speed in the format, but it does not go critical until it could untap with either Priest of Titania or Elvish Archdruid. It is imperative to keep those two off the board or answer them as soon as possible. Allowing your Elfball opponent to untap with either of those in play means facing an exponential growth in the number of elves and a quick trip to the next game.

It is also important to keep Ezuri off the board due to his ability to regenerate other elves. Dismember was MVP here as it gets around Ezuri’s regeneration shield (for other elves, if you could not afford to remove Ezuri first). I would prioritise removing Elfball’s Priest and Archdruid, followed by the lords and Ezuri.

Round 4: Vendilion Clique

Vendilion Clique turned out to be one of the most popular leaders in the tournament as a lot of the participants were Duel Commander players and they ported over their Duel Commander decks. My final round opponent was local alterist extraordinaire, Patterson and he sported some of the most gorgeous-looking basic islands I have seen.

Game one was a drawn-out grind for me to amass a board position amid his flurry of counterspells and bounces. He flooded out in the mid-game as he ripped one too many islands in succession (perils of having beautiful islands), which allowed me to sneak in a Midnight Haunting and bolster my tokens with Gavony Township. An Ancestral Visions did not draw him into the Cyclonic Rift he was looking for and it was game two.

Sideboard: +Reclamation Sage, +Phyrexian Arena, +Wrench Mind, + Sin Collector, +Golgari Charm, -Dismember, -Smother, -Scavenging Ooze, -Swords to Plowshare, -Llanowar Elves.

I took out all my creature removals as there were no targets beyond Vendilion Clique and I have flying spirit tokens to handle that. The excessive number of artifact and enchantment removal stemmed from my fear of Back to Basics and getting Vedalken Shackled out of the game. Rightfully so,  game two would have been lost had I not have a Reclamation Sage in hand when he resolved his Vedalken Shackles.

Notes from the round: Playing against blue was not as dreadful as I initially thought. The lack of board wipes meant that the fight was to resolve a few threats through his counterspells and bounces, and bounces were net negative in terms of card advantage. However, blue does have a lot of deadly enchantments and artifacts post-board that could wreck a tricolor creature-based deck  if left unanswered.

3-1 (finished second)

Overall, the tournament was a hell of an experience. The complexity of Tiny Leaders and the decision trees available definitely felt like playing Legacy, or at the very least competitive Duel Commander. The singleton restriction was one of the factor as it promoted diversity in answers and threats. I have yet to amass enough Tiny Leaders experience to point out its flaws (and I am certain there are some), and from what little experience I’ve had, Tiny Leaders filled a gap for me by providing a format where I can experience the thrills of Legacy at a fraction of its cost and the fun of Commander without the long-drawn out games.

 

The Gilded Goblin

The Strange World of Collectible Tokens

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By: Jared Yost

Magic sure has some strange collectible items. You know all those tokens you get from drafting? Yeah, the ones that you throw away? It wasn’t always like that. Tokens used to be few and far between in the earlier days of Magic. They only used to be given out as promotional items or at other rare events. The older tokens are still around and have turned into collectors items. I still remember the time when I thought “Tokens? Who needs these, dice can just represent everything…” My, have the times have changed.

Since Magic has increased so much in popularity over time, the prevalence of tokens has also increased since having the physical representation added another layer of depth to the game. We like to see tokens being used on camera matches, for example, because it is much easier to distinguish them between all the other types of counters that are used on other permanents. Due to the prevalent use of tokens, players are more inclined to pick them up for decks they use to better represent game states (especially since Wizards seems like to creating new types of counters, it only makes the use of tokens more important in games).

Since I’ve recently had a fascination with discovering these types of rarer tokens, today I would like to share with you some of my findings.

Token Rarity Theory

Unlike Magic’s past, you probably don’t throw away tokens you crack in packs. For example, planeswalker emblems are notoriously harder to find than other types of tokens. I’m not sure what the statistical distribution of emblems are compared to other token types but I believe they are probably the rarest type of token to crack in pack. To peak my curiosity, I did some research on token rarity and found this interesting theory which I’ll quote below:

I couldn’t find an official answer, but I can make an educated guess based on how cards are produced in general.

Cards are printed in big sheets and then cut out and randomized. These sheets are grouped by rarity. You print sheets based on the desired ratio of rarities in the final product, e.g. 1 rare sheet per 10 common sheets if the two sheets are of equal size.

Sometimes, more than one copy of a cards is on each sheet. For instance, early sets, particularly the small sets which tried to simulate three rarity levels with only two print sheets, had multiple copies of some cards — this is why Camel is listed as “Common 5” in some collector guides, or why Knights of Thorn is an “Uncommon 1” (functionally a rare for The Dark). For a more modern example, consider mythic rares: mythics don’t get their own sheet; instead the rares sheet has two copies of every vanilla rare and one of each mythic.

This is undoubtably how the ads and tokens sheet is arranged as well: all of the ad and token cards are printed on one sheet, but there are multiple copies of the “common” tokens and few copies of the “rare” ones. For example, a whole sheet of around a hundred M13 ads and tokens might contain twenty goblins and only one Liliana emblem. The exact mix of cards is likely to vary from set to set, but you can get a good idea of the rarity of “rare” tokens if you know the overall sheet size.

The theory made a lot of sense to me. This would explain why its good to sock away all those Monastery Mentor tokens – they’re basically Young Pyromancer tokens yet even rarer since Mentor is a mythic and people will need lots of the tokens for decks that play him. Mentor tokens are close to $0.80 retail per token, which should come down once more Fate Reforged is released, but if Mentor becomes a powerhouse over the next Standard cycle you can bet that tokens will be in high demand. Look at how much Hornet Queen tokens go for right now – close to $2.50 per token!! That’s a lot for a card that isn’t even a card.

Higher Priced Tokens

Alright, let’s break down some of the more expensive tokens and see why they’re so high.

Soldier Token (League)

soldiertoken

Price – $15 Median (Only two sellers selling on TCGPlayer as of the time writing this article)

Alright, so the first thing that popped out to me is that the token is from Theros, a current Standard set. I was not expecting the most valuable token on TCGPlayer to be this card. In truth, it isn’t – the Marit Lage token is worth more and I will get to that later. But still, a Theros token is worth $15? Why?!

Some of the comments on TCGPlayer help to explain the price. According to commentators, the price is set so high because they were promos given out to players who participated in something called “Gateway to Core” events right after Theros was released. Apparently, the events weren’t very popular, because even though every person that participated in them got a promo they are still really expensive for a token card.

The takeaway here is that if you want the pimped soldier token out there, this token would be it.

Marit Lage Token

marittoken

Price – $18 Median (forty-eight copies listed at this median price – which means the token is actually popular and with a demand-based market price)

The reason that this token is so rare is because it was the Release Event Card (card being used very loosely here) at Coldsnap release events hosted at local game stores. Anybody ever been to one of those? I think not.

For the Legacy players amongst us, the Lands deck uses Dark Depths as the win condition. The token goes along with this land. What may not be obvious in the picture is that the token is foil – that’s right folks, the Marit Lage tokens are pretty much the only “easily” obtainable foil tokens around! Which is another reason why it is so collectable. So we have aesthetics and utility combined in this token to give it the current price.

As the most usable pimp token, I don’t see Wizards ever releasing this token in the same fashion ever again. Is $18 too high for a token? Yes. However, for a collectable item such as this, that $18 could easily double or more a few years down the road. Thanks Thespian’s Stage!

Squirrel Token (Odyssey)

squirreltoken

Price – $13.50 Median (with six prices listed)

Similar to the Theros Soldier token, the Odyssey Squirrel token is worth so much simply because it is hard to find (being a Player Rewards promo and us as players no longer receiving player rewards). A token that I’m sure is close to Maro’s heart, the Squirrel token is a casual favorite because Squirrels as a tribe is both hilarious and somewhat powerful even though it hasn’t gotten any recent support outside of a reprint of Squirrel’s Nest in Conspiracy. For example, the age old Earthcraft combo I’m sure comes to mind, and in addition these squirrels and squirrel related cards all can utilize the token:

Not that any of these cards are going to spike any time soon, since Squirrels is one of the  most casual of casual tribes, however it looks like Earthcraft has been steadily increasing in price over the last two years. It wouldn’t surprise me if a rare card from one of these older sets like Squirrel Wrangler or Nut Collector also starts steadily going up.

Lastly, I believe the token’s artwork and layout make it unique among existing tokens since Wizards took the token art direction in another way since the beginning days of token design.

Spirit Token (Planeshift)

spirittoken

Price – $8 Median (with six prices listed)

There are plenty of cards that make 1/1 White Flying tokens, with the most notable being Lingering Souls and Spectral Procession. Similar to the Squirrel token, I believe the reason this token is so high is due to the rarity of player rewards tokens. The artwork on this token is also very unique amongst spirit tokens, another reason to value it higher than spirit tokens from other sets that are 1/1 white flyers.

 Elf Warrior Token (DD: Elves vs Goblins)

elftoken

Price – $7 Median (with four prices listed)

OK, there is no good reason why this Elf Warrior token is so high. The Lorwyn version, featuring the exact same art (with the only difference being the set symbol) is only $0.36. Clearly the price is artificially inflated due to the low print run of the duel decks.

 Elemental Token (M14 with Winona Nelson artwork)

elementaltoken

Price – $2.40 Median (with two prices listed)

Strangely, this Young Pyromancer token was also printed in M14 along with another type of token that is only worth a fraction of the price. Only two sellers have it listed, so the price is either inflated due to this or the token is actually worth that much because players buy it out when it goes lower than $2.40.

It is a pretty cool looking token, I’ll give you that. Just not sure if it is $2.40 worth it unless you really need to see this artwork with your Young Pyromancers.

Saproling Token (Invasion)
Sliver Token (Legions)
Soldier Token (Onslaught)
Spirit Token (Champions)

varioustokens

Price – $4 to $8 Median (there are significantly more Sliver tokens on the market than Saprolings, Soldiers, and Spirits)

I would say all the above tokens are collectors items, with the most notable being the Sliver token and colorless Spirit with no abilities (which is produced from Forbidden Orchard). The Sliver tokens have seen a resurgence in popularity due to Sliver Hive, but also the longstanding popularity of Sliver Queen and her token making ability can’t be understated.

All four of these tokens have the unique players rewards artwork and should be watched for future growth as time moves on. All the tokens are produced by cards that are used in casual, commander, or competitive formats and will be collector’s items since they are hardly ever seen.

That’s All – For Now

I hope you’ve enjoyed my brief foray into expensive tokens. Surprisingly, there were both current and older tokens on the list. I wanted to highlight that the next time you’re thinking about throwing away that Wingmate Roc token you just opened or an emblem that you know will never go off (at least not competitively) that there is someone out there who is willing to pay at least a few cents for it – and if it’s popular enough significantly more than that.

 

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WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: Feb 1st/15

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Fate Reforged continues to make its’ presence felt across Standard, Modern and even Legacy this week, with plenty of hits and misses arising from the latest set. Standard is awash with new and innovative deck ideas, resulting in plenty of card movement, and new format Tiny Leaders is also riding a hype wave, generating a handful of significant price spikes.  Here’s the down low on the major price shifts in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Temur Ascendancy (Khans of Tarkir, Rare): $.38 to .$70 (84%)

There are few things more fun in the world of Magic: The Gathering than having a jank rare come out of nowhere late in the Standard season as the centerpiece in a brand new combo deck. If you haven’t heard, the deck is mono-green, leveraging Nykthos, Karametra’s Acolyte and Voyaging Satyr to generate infinite mana with Temur Sabertooth. Basically you need to be able to generate 1 more mana with whatever you’re tapping, bouncing and replaying than it’s costing you to bounce (1G) and play it (1G-3G). Temur Ascendancy gives the mana dork haste, enabling the whole combo, along with providing random cards off your big guys when you need to dig to go off. As a bulk rare, there is some upside still be to be had here if the deck continues to do well, but unlike Jeskai Ascendancy it isn’t likely to find a home in other decks, and it would be hard pressed to break $3 as a previously unloved and heavily opened rare. That being said, there may be locals who aren’t turned on to the card and will throw some into trades to add value to your trade binder.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Acquire in Trades

2. Valorous Stance (Fate Reforged, Uncommon): $0.89 to $1.39 (+56%)

Many pros are saying that this flexible spell is the most important card in Fate Reforged for Standard purposes. That gives it an outside chance of achieving Stoke the Flames status as an overpriced uncommon from a small set, especially given the easy casting cost and plethora of decks in the format with access to a single white mana and the need to kill big guys and protect their own threats. It’s more likely that we see this settle around $2, but heading into the fall, I could see it boosting again because of the relatively scarcity of Fate Reforged (driven by the short period before the appearance of Dragons of Tarkir and then Modern Masters 2). I like this one as a throw-in target, but I won’t be buying any for now.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Acquire in Trades

 

3. Yavimaya Coast (10th Edition, Rare): $4.72 to $6.03 (+28%)

With Sultai control/mid-range builds looking like the deck to beat in post-Fate Reforged Standard, plenty of players are looking to pick up lands that work in the deck. You should be selling or trading into this pricing, along with Shivan Reef, as the fall rotation of M15 will send painlands crashing back to $1-2.

Format: Standard

Verdict: Sell/Trade

 

4. Anafenza, the Foremost (Fate Reforged, Mythic): $5.82 to $6.72 (+15%)

In mid-December during the usual fall set price lulls, I was picking up copies of Anafenza around $2 in the hopes of long range Modern play and possible Tiny Leaders play. Both of these scenarios have become real, and sooner than expected, and this goat loving mythic dame is also looking pretty useful in Abzan decks increasingly interested in reducing graveyard card counts to hamper opponents delve strategies. Foils especially are on the rise, with a cresting wave of Tiny Leaders hype over the last 2 weeks, and I think you want to be snapping up any copies you can find locally at last week’s prices wherever possible and looking for options to cash out at $5-10+/copy, or just hold for mid-term gains. Non-foils may have a couple of dollars left in them, but if you got in around Nov/Dec, you may just want to out them and move into something overlooked for Tiny Leaders or Modern play.

Format: Standard/Modern/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Sell/Trade (Buy/Trade For Foils At Lagging Prices)

 

5. Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx (Theros, Rare): $2.91 to $3.25 (+12%)

I’m sitting on about 60 copies of this powerful mana generator so I’m always happy to see it’s prospects rise, even if they’re unlikely to impact the long term game I’m playing. In Standard, the increased interest is sourced from the sudden feasibility of both Red and Green devotion strategies, based on new cards in Fate Reforged that help get more mana symbols on the table in a hurry. Even so, both of those decks will need to put up results for this card to break $5-6, and I’m much more interested in continuing to acquire for a future $10+ sell point 2-3 years down the road, when the supply has dried up. There’s always the possibility of a reprint on this card, but it isn’t easily slapped into most supplemental products and won’t find a home in any main set releases for several years yet, so I like the odds that this finds a peak before a post-rotation trough.

Format: Standard/Modern/EDH/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Buy/Trade

Bonus Pick: Zirilian of the Claw (Mirage, Rare) $2.00 to ???

Zirilian of the Claw searches Dragons out of your library for 5-mana, an effect that is only ever going to see play at kitchen tables by Dragon-happy EDH players and little kids. Given that we’re headed into a heavily hyped set called Dragons of Tarkir however, it was perhaps inevitable that someone would try to spike this card by buying out the limited supply across the Internet. At the time of this writing there are a mere 9 copies left on TCGPlayer, with prices ranging from $10 to $18. This card going to $6 would have been reasonable on casual demand, but this price is bonkers, so dig up any copies you have in your bulk box and out them immediately to buylists or via Ebay/TCG to reap the rewards from the hype train, that is, assuming there are even buyers to milk.

 

3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Temporal Trespass (Fate Reforged, Mythic): $3.92 to $3.11 (-21%)

Time Walk sounds so sexy. In fact, some folks thought it sounded so sexy they were pre-ordering this card over $20. This is a sad time for those people, because the consensus is that this card is as unplayable as the last few similar cards. I fully expect this to show up in a Woo Brew in a few years, but until then, you should be dropping these like they’re hot.

Format(s): Casual/Modern (one day?)

Verdict: Sell

2. Warden of the First Tree (Fate Reforged, Rare): $8.67 to $6.96 (-20%)

He’s not as good as we hoped, now get over it. Though he is seeing some play in Abzan decks, he’s not greatly improving those decks, they aren’t expanding in the format, and I fully expect this card to hit $3-4 within the month. Get out however you can and into something with more upside.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3. Torrent Elemental (Fate Reforged, Mythic): $5.58 to $4.78 (-14%)

This card was on my “sleepers” list a couple of weeks back when there were whispers that it would find a home in Sultai lists. That premise has come to pass, but even the decks that are playing it aren’t running more than a single copy typically, and many builds aren’t even bothering since those decks already have plenty to do each turn. I think this settles back around $3-4 for now, but watch for a breakout performance to pump it back up.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Sell

Quick Hits:

  • Rings of Brighthearth is also spiking from a likely buyout, possibly related to Tiny Leaders hype. Time to sell.
  • Tiny Leaders is well into hype engine mode, with a plethora of new #mtgfinance and strategy articles written by pros and finance writers over the last 2 weeks. Finding overlooked cards that are good in the format and stockpiling foils is looking like a solid play, even if the hype dies out longer term. Cards like Unearth, Varolz, the Scar-Striped and Doran, the Siege Tower have already spiked hard. Find a target.
  • Tasigur did damage on camera in Legacy this weekend, attacking alongside Tarmogoyf and further increasing the likelihood that foils are a good buy. Remember Snapcaster Mage is a big set staple that hit $100+ on strong Modern/Legacy play. Tasigur is from a small set, but not quite as powerful, and also a legend. Even still, I can see his foils hitting $40 this year, from the current $21-$23. I’m buying.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Casual Fridays

Be Patient

6 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

For a week now, we’ve been able to buy Fate Reforged cards. The week between the Prerelease and the actual purchase of cards is when the values are at their greatest. Now, prices are going to start falling and it’s going to be interesting to see these trajectories.

Remember, we’ve got two seasons (that’s what I like to call them, I’m not sure if we have actual names) of FRF-KTK-KTK and then FRF-DTK-DTK, so we’re never going to have a huge influx of Fate Reforged cards. Instead, we’re going to get a trickle of them that for most of these cards, will slowly lower the price over time.

This means that for your casual deck, be it Cube, Commander, Rainbow Stairwell, whatever, you will be able to get what you want for less if you’re willing to wait.

This is especially true for foils. Look at these prices! They are so high right now because almost no packs have been opened. If you need a foil (I need a few myself) it’ll be more cost-efficient to wait.

Let’s talk about a few cases from Fate Reforged.

The Rare Dragons (Silumgar, Atarka, Kolaghan, Dromoka, Ojutai) 

Your value is not here. Even foils of these are not good to trade for, as demand is at the peak. Casuals want this RIGHT NOW to add to their Dragon decks. These will never be good enough in Standard to be a four-of, which is what a rare needs to be to hit a high price. Think of Hero’s Downfall or Eidolon of the Great Revel.

Being an occasional one or two in just a few decks will keep prices under $1.

As for foils, there’s no way these stay at $10. If you opened one, dump it posthaste. These will be $5 foils within a few weeks.

Shamanic Revelation

This is the Buy-a-Box foil, and that is bad news for the value of this card. This has great potential in casual games, as it can be an enormous Sphinx’s Revelation and it’s the epitome of a win-more card. The good news is that casual players love this effect and this slips easily into any creature-themed deck.

It’s currently at 66 cents for the nonfoil, an indicator of presale demand that is about zero. The foil is about $4 right now, and with the promo foil an option, I don’t expect it to go up.

Humble Defector

There are a number of people excited about mixing this card in Modern with Jeskai Ascendancy and some instant-speed cantrips. The way this card is worded, you put the ability on the stack, and only when it resolves does an opponent gain control. So if you can untap the creature at instant speed (say by casting Lightning Bolt or something like it with Ascendancy out) you can draw four or more before having to give it over.

It’s an uncommon, yes, but the split on foils is worth paying attention to. Right now, foils are $10. I do not think they can hold that price, but I think that if a deck uses it to draw six or more cards, it might have legs. This is also a nice card in Commander games, where you can use something like Homeward Path (a terribly underplayed card!) to get it back before your opponent can use it.

Frost Walker

I have to admit that I had my head turned by this card. Two mana for four power is extremely rare, and the drawback on this card is not that big a deal. It’s very fragile anyway, but James (@MTGCritic) pointed out on Twitter that JP foils of this are going fast and hard due to Legacy implications.

In Legacy, if you’re a blue card, you have a leg up on all other cards. Blue cards fit in with the best color in Magic’s history, and if you can be pitched to Force of Will, that’s going to make it easier to play. Legacy has a lot of point removal, and almost no free targeting. Even Forked Bolt can’t get it for free, at least one damage has to be assigned. People are ready to kill Tarmogoyf, so the Walker is going to get killed.

Right now, people are making sure they have green mana in order to play the ‘Goyf, but relatively few other green cards. Tarmogoyf can get to five power in some games, but for the same two mana, you have an immediate four power without adding another color of mana.

It’s important to note two interactions: First, no Equipment, specifically Umezawa’s Jitte. If you’re running a Stoneforge Mystic package, you may or may not care about this problem, since Batterskull is the star. Secondly, it doesn’t matter if you counter the spell that targets the Frost Walker, because the trigger happens when it’s targeted.

English foils are currently running at about $2, and I agree with James that picking up a few is a relatively safe bet. But if they spike, move fast to get rid of them.

Temporal Trespass

Oh goodness, do people playing outside Constructed love taking extra turns. There’s no real reason for this to be a $33 foil right now. If you crack one, move it immediately. This is going to fall into the $10-$15 range by the time Dragons of Tarkir comes out, and probably even lower when it’s time for Magic 2016.

The nonfoils are also a trap right now. I’m in on getting them for under a dollar, as this is one of the worst extra turn cards around. Relatively few Commander decks want to Delve, since the graveyard is a reusable resource. Still, extra turn cards are always going to have a certain cache, so picking them up on the cheap and then being patient is the way to go.

Final note: I’ll be playing in GP San Jose this weekend, so if you see someone with a sweet MTGPrice mat, that’s me! If you want your own mat like this, check out the Kickstarter link.

 

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