Early Spoils

By: Cliff Daigle

The new wedge set is coming, and for those of us who lurk in casual circles, Cubing and Commanding until our fingers bleed, there’s a lot of good stuff!

Allied Fetchlands – Yes. Oh yes. Get them while they are in print, save a couple for yourself, and do not attempt to buy them up and hold them. You’d be looking at a very long-term hold, minimum three years. This set is likely going to be the best-selling set ever (again) and it cannot be overstated that there will be a lot of fetches in circulation. Being an all-time seller means that prices are mostly going to stay low, since supply is so high.

Shocklands were useful as trade bait: If you could trade five cards valued at $2 for one $10 shockland, you had something that was much easier to trade. Fetches are going to work the same way: these will be very easy to trade away, so pursue them accordingly.

A pair of side notes about these fetches: First of all, in EDH games, crack that fetchland immediately. Don’t wait until right before your turn. Don’t make everyone wait that extra minute for your shuffle. Secondly, if Wizards is willing to put allied fetches into Standard, they will do that for the enemy ones as well eventually. I doubt we’ll get them while these are Standard-legal, but my guess is that Modern Masters 2 will feature the filterlands. It’s been said that they made the mana too good, especially alongside Vivid lands. Remember, everyone could and did play Cryptic Command without much of an issue getting that triple blue, thanks to the filters.

The Khans (the five mythic legends): With the exception of Narset, they are all aggressive in their costs and sizes. As well they should be, for three colors of mana. I don’t see any of these as being super-expensive, but you’ll see Zurgo and Surrak Commander decks especially. surrakdragonclaw1

Surrak Dragonclaw and Animar, Soul of Elements work so well together, I feel myself building a Two-Headed Commander deck of some sort. Narset is stunning in how well she works with the Prowess mechanic, and everything else that cares about noncreature spells. That’s a deck I am looking forward to building.

Villainous Wealth – This is the newest game-ender X spell. No milling, this is exiling. Forget your Eldrazi or Gaea’s Blessing insurance. I will be looking to pick up foils of this, but the regular ones are going to be bulk.

Hardened Scales – I disagree with James on this one. It’s going to be bulk immediately, and bulk for a long time. If it were in Standard with evolve, then maybe, but even with the counters and tricks available, and this working well in multiples, it’s not going to be good enough. Maybe it’ll be $1 in a year. I don’t think I will run it in my Experiment Kraj EDH deck. I wouldn’t bother with it in an Animar deck. I recognize the potential, but I doubt it’s going to get there.

Empty the Pits – It’s been mentioned a number of places: We love recurring things in casual formats, especially Commander. Delve cards are going to have to be very good in order to justify not playing things that bring back creatures. I think this is very good, and I’ll happily run one in my tribal Zombie deck, but remember, the XX mana cost is competing with token generators like Entreat the Angels and Gelatinous Genesis. The love of Zombies, though, will keep this at a couple of bucks.

seetheunrwitten

See the Unwritten – I’m calling it now. This is my Primeval Bounty, my Sliver Hivelord. The mythic that I don’t think will be worth much but will instead keep a surprising amount of value. I’m dying to cast this in my Jund all-creatures deck.

Clever Impersonator – When I read this, I was stunned. The flexibility on this card is just outstanding. This is another mythic that will keep a decent price despite not seeing a lot of Standard play.

End Hostilities – You’re going to want to play this in just about any white deck. This gets rid of so many annoying things! It will never cost you much to get, though. Supreme Verdict made it to $7 at one point, and I see this maxing out at $3.

Goblinslide – I would keep an eye on the foils of this card. This may be as good as, or better than, Young Pyromancer. Getting the tokens with haste is certainly big game, and anything that makes Goblin tokens has good potential.

We don’t even have the full spoiler, but we will soon! I’m really excited for this set. If you have the chance to draft it, remember that the trilands in Alara block became first picks by the end, because mana fixing is just that good. Enjoy!

Pet Cards: Hardened Scales

PET CARDS

Khans of Tarkir: Brimming with Potential (Pt1: Hardened Scales)

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

With the forthcoming release of Khans of Tarkir Wizards of the Coast has given us a fresh new take on an Alara style gold set, complete with a bunch of cards that would seem unplayable if we weren’t overloaded with mana fixing options. As with M15 this set is positively brimming with cards that could make a big splash IF they find the right complementary cards in the format, and IF the deck ends up doing well at a significant event. With the Onslaught fetchlands taking up a significant chunk of the set’s EV (estimated value), many of these potential winners will be great pickups next summer when they’ve failed out of standard. A few however, will become triumphant underdogs, just as Goblin Rabblemaster did in M15.

Now most of my investments in MTGFinance rest firmly in the “obvious winners” category, with specs harvested from my own research and tips from the top minds in the game. I spent most of my spring/summer acquiring cards like Mana Confluence, Eidolon of the Great Revel foils, Soldier of the Pantheon, Courser of Kruphix, Keranos and Goblin Rabblemaster.

With every set however, I like to dig for 2-3 cards that seem wildly undervalued, often because they are hard to evaluate or seem underwhelming at first glance.  I tend to go deep on these cards using math that requires at least 1/3 to triple up or I lose money. My time horizon is often targeted at 1-2 years but I try to pick cards that have a shot at imminent success whenever possible.

As with any good MTG spec we’re ideally looking for cards that are:

  1. Multi-format playable
  2. Mythic or Rare
  3. Preferably from small sets (making all KTK and future fall/spring big set specs worse in general)
  4. Can benefit strongly from the printing of future complementary cards
  5. Strongly undervalued vs. rarity average

For the next few weeks I’ll be selecting one card per week to explore more fully and try to establish whether it has true potential or a destiny in the bulk rare bin.

This week we’re going to be talking about an innocuous little green enchantment that goes by the name of Hardened Scales.

Tail of the Tape

  • Casting Cost: At G Hardened Scales is well positioned to come down early ahead of the cards it aims to boost and is easy to cast in any deck with access to the color.
  • Resiliency: Post side-boarding enchantments can draw some hate in certain metagames, but at the kitchen table they’re one of the card types most likely to stick around and do their job.
  • Usefulness on Curve: A late game Scales into an empty board may be just the stumble an opponent needs to finish you off, but early and mid-game it easily fits on curve among other activity.
  • Rarity: This could have been an uncommon in a set with a broader +1/+1 theme, but it’s to our benefit that it’s a rare in KTK.
  • Valuation:  Averaging just .75-1.00 USD in pre-orders this card is poised for solid gains if it ends up in a successful standard or modern deck this fall. The potential price range from strong standard play alone is $3-5, but growth beyond that is limited due to the linear nature of the strategy the card suggests. It will need Modern or strong EDH/Casual support to get much further.
  • Availability: KTK may end up the most opened set ever, and that will mean continuing bulk status if it doesn’t find a home this year. In that case next summer will be the all-time low, and the time to snap up some copies for decks and specs at .25-.50.

Standard

In standard this card’s future rest squarely in it’s ability to find a home in a few possible decks (in order of likelihood): Abzan, Green Devotion, or Temur.

On first review there doesn’t seem to be anything truly degenerate to do with Hardened Scales in Standard so far, but there are more ways to gain value from it than you probably realized. Actually, dozens more.

So far in Abazan or G/W (the most likely shells) we have the following cards to work with, listed in order of natural affinity. (Warning: this list is exhaustive in the hopes that it will inspire one of you to do something grand with Scales and but may also just result in you losing your FNM games while you durdle around.):

The Green Devotion Players

Working with the pre-existing Green Devotion shell may mean messing with a good thing unnecessarily but it’s certainly worth a look to see whether Hardened Scales can rate a slot in a deck that’s already proven itself Tier 1, perhaps with some previously ignored cousins:

Living Totem      Genesis Hydra

  • Genesis Hydra: I like getting a slightly better rate on this guy when he was already playable. For 5 mana, we’re getting a 4/4 that digs 3 cards looking for a Banishing Light or Suppression Field to help clear a path.
  • Bow of Nylea: Already played in Green Devotion decks this year, it now provides +2/+2, making it that much better.
  • Mistcutter Hydra: Gets a bit bigger, and his presence in the main will depend on how the metagame shakes out regardless, since Mono-U is likely done for now.
  • Polukranos, World Eater: Getting an extra +1/+1 from his monstrosity trigger isn’t a big deal, but he didn’t really need the help to be good. The rest of the playable Monstrosity guys like Hundred-Handed One and Arbor Colossus are a bit better too.
  • Heroes’ Bane: This guy has more fun with Scales than Polukranos, increasing your rate to 5/5 for 5 and allowing him to hit for 11 for 2GG a turn later.
  • Hornet Nest: Maybe, just maybe, Hardened Scales into Nest into either Ajani is a disgusting way to slaughter decks without flyers.
  • Living Totem: Suddenly this limited staple reads 3G for a 2/3 that boosts a buddy +2/+2 permanently on entry. Not bad.
  • Scourge of Skola Vale: He’s now a 3/3 for 2G that gets very large indeed if you give up a dying companion to his hungers. Likely not good enough.
  • Hooded Hydra: Gets an additional counter, which is not that exciting and a dubious Standard card regardless (except with Purphoros, where he might win games).
  • Nature’s Panoply: For 2GG you now get 4/4 of fresh power/toughness on the table, but you need guys in play first.
  • Hunt The Weak/Temur Charm: Now beefs up a creature +2/+2 and makes it that much more likely to win the fight. Hmm. Banishing Light and Suppression field are likely still just better, but perhaps a single copy for the road.
  • Nessian Demolok: Bet you didn’t know this card exists. With Scales you get a 3/3 for 3GG that destroys a planeswalker or Banishing Light or you get a 7/7 for 5. They’ll give you the big guy then kill it. The rest of the tribute cards have the same issue. Moving on.

Several of these cards may also be better off joining the Abzan posse below.

The Abzan Crew

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes       Cruel Sadist

  • Incremental Growth: With Scales this now reads 3GG, Sorcery: Put 2 +1/+1 counters on a creature, 3 on another and 4 on another. That’s adding 9 power/toughness to the table for 5.
  • Ajani Steadfast: Putting +2/+2 permanently on each of your creatures and boosting any planeswalkers you happen to be playing seems great since it makes it that much more likely that your Ajani can hide effectively behind his friends.
  • Ajani, Mentor of Heroes: Similarly to his other incarnation, the GW version of Ajani coughing up a maximum of 6 +1/+1 counters as his +1 seems excellent.
  • Retribution of the Ancients: This is the kill spell this deck needed, turning all those +1/+1 counters into lethal -1/-1 counters on the opposing side for a very low cost and with extreme flexibility. Bad in multiples so it would be 1-2 copy thing.
  • Abzan Charm: As if this charm wasn’t useful already killing Sarkhan and drawing cards, now it potentially adds 4 power/toughness to the table instead of 2
  • Cruel Sadist: B gets you a 1/1 that ramp easily to 3/3 and 5/5 in two turns and starts picking off small creatures with ease.
  • High Sentinels of Arashin: It’s a 3/4 flyer that gets +1/+1 for each other creature you control with a counter on it and it can even provide 2 counters for 3W when necessary. Lovely.
  • Feat of Resistance: Putting a two +1/+1 counters on a guy while countering a kill spell or trumping a combat trade for 1W at instant speed looks worthy.
  • Mer-Ek Nightblade: 2/3 for a guy that can make himself 2/2 bigger per turn and give everyone Deathtouch seems worth testing.
  • Anafenz, the Foremost: Already a great beater at 4/4 for WGB, suddenly she’s permanently boosting a fellow attacker by +2/+2. Seems solid.
  • Abzan Ascendancy: Doubles in power adding +2/+2 to every creature on your board, along with the 1/1 flyers you get when your dudes die.
  • Ivorytusk Fortress: This card has been written off as limited only, but 5/7 for 5 is an ok rate, and untapping your Outlast/counter guys for defense could be what they need to succeed.
  • Athreos, God of Passage: No interactions with Scales directly, but a fantastic value card if we’re trying to recycle Heroic dudes, Sadists and Chroniclers.
  • Grim Haruspex: No direct interactions, but in combination with Athreos, could be the foundation of a solid draw/drain engine.
  • Fleecemane Lion: A great card gets a bit bigger and still outranks Satyr Grovedancer.
  • Ainok-Bond Kin: 1W for a 2/1 that has T, 1W: Permanently gain +2/+2 that gives all your other counter laden creatures first strike might get there.
  • Herald of Anafenza: W for a 1/2 that can gain +2/+2 and make a 1/1 for 2W every turn. Again, seems workable though the tap cost on Outlast makes it much worse.
  • Feast on the Fallen: for 2B, you get a +2/+2 upgrade on a creature of your choice every turn (I’m assuming you’re attacking hard yeah?)

The Heroic Shell Cards

Phalanx Leader      Reap What is Sown

  • Phalanx Leader: WW and some heroic triggers starts building up our entire army in +2/+2 increments.
  • Fabled Hero: If you were going to try and play a Heroic guy, this might be it, since the first trigger would give you a 4/4 Double Striker for 1WW.
  • Hero of Iroas: If we’re going the Bestow route a 4/4 for 1W with cheap trigger costs seems about right.
  • Wingsteed Rider/Akroan Skyguard: A 4/4 flyer for 1WW is playable, with the right triggers. So is a 3/3 flyer for 1W. Perhaps both?
  • Battlewise Hoplite: A WU 2/2 that Scrys for 1 and becomes a 4/4 on it’s first targeting is interesting if UWG can be made to work.
  • Favored Hoplite: I spent most of the spring tooling a W/U deck with Battlefield Thaumaturgist, Favored Hoplite and Triton Shorestalker where I would use Launch the Fleet and Hidden Strings to do dumb things on turns 2/3 and then get blown out by real magic cards. Still, he’s a 3/4 for W off the first trigger so I’ll be testing him again.
  • Reap What is Sown: A couple of Heroic guys and a Scales, and then you cast this during combat? Yeah, that’s +4/+4 per guy, permanently…
  • Solidarity of Heroes: So then, the next turn, we cast this for 2GG and our 6/6 guys become 11/11s? WTF. Call it win more if you like, it’s still hilarious.
  • Chronicler of Heroes: 3/3, Draw a card for 1GW starts to look almost playable in the presence of so many counters.
  • Ordeal of Nylea/Erebos: The plethora of kill in this new format makes this pretty dubious, but Ordeal of Nylea on an early Sadist after Scales, could be attacking for 5-7 and fetching 2 lands. The black one makes them discard 2 cards the turn it’s played. Worth fooling with?
  • Eidolon of Blossoms: Getting a card off your late Scales to turn them into cantrips with upside is good if there’s already a high enough density of “counters count” cards and enchantments to make Eidolon worthwhile.
  • Armory of Iroas: An equipment that gives any creature a permanent +2/+2 for 2 equip cost is possibly playable. It would help push though Courser and Sylvan and that’s important right now.

The Temur Tribe

In Temur we maintain access to the interesting mono green cards above and gain additional access to a few extra toys, at the cost of a lessened overall focus on +1/+1 counters:

Chasm Skulker        War-Name Aspirant

  • Chasm Skulker: Gains 2 +1/+1 counters per turn, necessitating kill sooner lest it get out of control.
  • Trap Essence: Countering a key creature on turns 4-6 and getting 3 counters on Chasm Skulker at instant speed seems like something I should at least be trying to do.
  • War-Name Aspirant: Could potentially come in as a 4/3 for 2 that can’t be blocked by Elspeth, Brimaz or Mardu tokens.
  • Sage of Hours: Taking extra turns is good but this guy needs more help amidst a see of good removal, pressure and sweepers.
  • Adamant Negation: If you can get a guy up to 4 power with your token work (or you’re just playing Savage Knuckleblade), this card starts countering other counters, kill and planeswalkers for one blue, and still steals turns early on causing maximum feel bads. Absolutely worth a shot.
  • Disdainful Stroke: This is the other half of a wicked good counter package where Adamant Negation handles the early and late game and this card shores up the middle by preventing Xenagos, Sarhkhan, Nissa, Stormbreath, Stoke the Flames, Utter End, etc.
  • Treasure Cruise: If U/G Delve can be made to work, using Treasure Cruise to dump 6 counters onto a Chasm Skulker may be a central anthem.
  • Temur Charm: As a more flexible Hunt the Weak, a mediocre counter spell or the falter you need to get in there for critical damage, this may have a role to play.

Personally, with Chasm Skulker being one of my pet cards from M15 I’m most excited to see if gaining 2 counters per turn is enough to put it over the top in some kind of UGx shell. There’s an outside chance that it’s actually UGB that is more set to support Skulker with some kind of Sidisi, Treasure Cruise, Jace brew, but I haven’t had chance to look at it very hard yet and figure out if Scales would even make an appearance in such a deck.

Modern

Moving on to Modern we immediately have access to many more options for attempting degeneracy with Hardened Scales.

Option A: Play it in Affinity

Arcbound Ravager    

Imagine the following turn sequence:

  • T1: Ornithopter, Memnite, Mox Opal, Darksteel Citadel, Signal Pest
  • T2: Glimmervoid, Hardened Scales, Steel Overseer
  • T3: Land, Arcbound Ravager (as a 2/2 out the gate), activate Overseer: 2/4 Ornithopter, 2/3 Signal Pest, 4/4 Ravager (with the potential to go to 14/14)

Being able to ramp Ravager this hard really stretches the value of burn spells and leaves him exposed mostly to Path to Exile and counters pre-board. Clearly Modular and Hardened Scales is at least worth fooling around with but it could just be bad to have a non-artifact in the main.

Note: The oft-overlooked Chronomaton goes up +2/+2 per turn with Scales in play, and can take counters from Ravager. Clockwork Beetle would enter as a 3/3 with potential to stay in play through other interactions. IE Energy Chamber which would dole out +2/+2 to your most needy artifact creature every turn for 2  up front and could be converted into +2/+2 for Ravager in a pinch.

Option B: Try to make “Ooze One Out” a thing

Yeah, so here’s a potential modern deck shell that tries to gather together some of the better +1/+1 oriented cards in the format:

Ooze One Out (Deck Shell, James Chillcott, Sep 10/14)

Bloodhall Ooze     Scavenging Ooze

  • 4 BloodHall Ooze: This + Scales + Cackler or Dark Confidant = +4/+4 per turn!
  • 4 Rakdos Cackler: Comes in as a 3/3 for R/B!
  • 4 Scavenging Ooze: As if this card wasn’t strong enough, now it gets +2/+2 when it removes creatures from the graveyard.
  • 4 Dark Confidant: Low casting cost decks with low redundancy on their primary catalyst need cards like this.
  • 2 Kavu Predator: Assuming we’re playing Grove of the Burnwillows for our red splash, this guy boosts +2/2 permanently on the first activation and just gets uglier from there.
  • 1 Ashling the Pilgrim: This guy is a 1/1 for 1R that helps with Bloodhall Ooze and can gain +2/+2 permanently for 1R and then threatens to blow up the world if left unchecked. I look forward to stealing a game with this out of nowhere.
  • 2 Thrill-Kill Assassin: 3/4 Deathtouch for 1B seems suddenly modern playable.
  • 3 Strangleroot Geist: A 2/1 haste for GG, that comes back as a 4/3 haste when it dies is just nasty.
  • 1 Predator Ooze: If ever there was a shell for this guy, this might be it. Path and counters still get him but he’s an indestructible creature that grows by either +2/2 or +4/+4 per turn depending on who you’re playing against. Could be tough to cast depending on how we balance the mana.
  • 4 Hardened Scales: Our main man in Japan.
  • 2 Ulcerate: Cheap and effective removal.
  • 2 Tragic Slip: Ditto.
  • 2 Dismember: More of the same.
  • 1 Bow of Nylea: A dubious addition I’m testing just to see if the flexibility is worth it.

Notes:

  • Corpsejack Menace: As a potential top end for this deck he’d cause mayhem with Scales, making all inbound counters go 2(n+1) (1 counter becomes 4, 2 counters become 6, 3 counters become 8.) With Bloodhall Ooze the math is actually doubled to 8 +1/+1 counters per turn because Bloodhall carries two separate triggered abilities!

Corpsejack Menace

  • Falkenrath Aristocrat: Going to 6/3 on the first trigger and 9/5 on the 2nd is tempting but you’d need to up the synergistic human count.
  • Countryside Crusher: Flipping 2 lands off the top with this guy would turn a 3/3 into a 7/7 for 1RR.
  • Bond Beetle: Could be a 2/3 for G.
  • Young Wolf: 1/1 for G that comes back as a 3/3.
  • Solidarity of Heroes might be insane in this deck.

In all likelihood I’m missing some fantastic deck options in Modern. (Brew something up and send it my way and I’ll include it in the next article!)

A few other potential Modern interactions:

  • Archangel of Thune now grants +2/+2 to all of your creatures permanently when you gain life.
  • Kitchen Finks go “infinite” with a way to get +1/+1 counters onto them easily since -1/-1 counters cancel each other out. Some kind of WGB Aristocrats brew?

Archangel of Thune   Kitchen Finks

EDH/Casual

With every card ever at our disposal the broken things we can do with Hardened Scales gets out of control pretty fast. It’s worth noting that in situations where you were only trying to double a single counter anyways, Scales is strictly cheaper than Doubling Season so it should find an auto-home in those pre-existing EDH decks that are already abusing counters.

Tangent 1: Unleash Creatures

Thrill-Kill Assassin   Hellhole Flailer

Check out what a Hardened Scales does to creatures with Unleash:

  • Rakdos Cackler: 3/3 for R or B
  • Gore-House Chainwalker: 4/3 for 1R
  • Thrill-Kill Assassin: 3/4 Deathtouch for 1B
  • Splatter Thug: 4/4 First Strike for 2R
  • Hellhole Flailer: 5/4 for 1BR w/ Sac, 2BR: Deal 5 to player.

 

Tangent 2: Simic/Doubling Season Decks

Cytoplast Root-Kin   

  • Doubling Season: I tried doing the math on this and my brain started to hurt. Suffice to say your creatures are getting massive. Just remember to stack the triggers correctly for maximum benefit.
  • Cytoplast Root-Kin:  Goes totally mondo and now reads 2GG, Graft 4, 4/4. ETB: Put an extra 2 +1/+1 counters on every creature that already has a counter.  Another creature ETB: Take a +1/+1 counter off Cytoplast Root-Kin and put 2 on the ETB creature. 2: Remove a +1/+1 counter from a creature and put 2 on CRK. (Wow.)
  • Forgotten Ancient:  Gains 2 +1/+1 counters per spell cast by any player. Those counters double again when split to other creatures in your upkeep!
  • Vorel, of the Hull Clade: I need a ruling on this one. Does this guy triple +1/+1 counters or just 2N+1?
  • Hunting Moa: Is now a 3/2 that puts 2 +1/+1 counters on a creature on ETB, and another 2 when it dies for just 2G.
  • Vigean Hydropon: Can distribute up to 12(!) +1/+1 counters to future incoming creatures for 1UG.
  • Afiya Grove: Now provides +8/+8  permanently to your board for just 1G. Hot.
  • Blessings of Nature: Wow, if you miracle this, you get up to 8 +1/+1 counters for just a single green mana. Gross.
  • Curse of Predation: The guy you do this to with Scales on the table is getting him for an extra 2 from every creature. He will hate you for it.
  • Simic Guildmage:  Turns a +1/+1 counter into 2 on someone else with every 1G activation.
  • Plaxcaster Frogling: Is now a 4/4 for 1UG that can remove a counter when another creature ETB to put 2 on the new creature. It also defends itself and it’s friends for 2.
  • Simic Fluxmage: Gets really sexy as a 1/2 that becomes a 3/4 on the next ETB trigger and can reset itself for further growth by removing a counter to place 2 on another creature.
  • Elusive Krasis: Goes from 0/4 Unblockable to 2/6 and 4/8 in a hurry with Hardened Scales around.
  • Evolution Vat: Upgrades to boosting a creature by +2/+2 and then doubling+1 the resulting total counters.
  • Fathom Mage: Gets +2/+2 and draws 2 card per Evolve trigger? Nuts.
  • Ghave, Guru of Spores: For 2 mana add a counter to any creature at instant speed.
  • Grimgrin, Corpse-Born: Gains +4/+4 in his normal cycle of abuse.

  • Gyre Sage: Starts generating silly amounts of mana in a hurry.
  • Kalonian Hydra: Hardly needs the help, but he starts at 5/5 and goes to 11/11 while doubling everyone else’s counters +1 on attack. Mental.
  • Kavu Predator: With a Grove of the Burnwillows now reads: 1G, 2/2, Trample. Tap Grove to put 2 +1/+1 counters on Kavu Predator.
  • Jenara, Asura of War: Gets big fast for 1W per 2/2.
  • Fertilid: is a 3/3 for 2G that can Rampant Growth 3 times.
  • Lumberknot: is a 1/1 Hexproof creature for 2GG that gains +2/+2 permanently whenever a creature dies.
  • Advocate of the Beast: now boosts a Beast by +2/+2 every turn for 2G

Tangent 3: Other Fun Interactions

Animar, Soul of Elements   Etched Oracle

  •  Ajani Goldmane: His -1 now places +2/+2 on each creature you control.
  • Ajani, Caller of the Pride: Does it for one creature with his +1.
  • Ajani’s Pridemate: Now gains +2/+2 whenever you gain life.
  • A fully kicked Analvolver is now 4BUG for an 8/8 flyer with regeneration.
  • Bramblewood Paragon: Warriors enter the battlefield with +2/+2 and gain trample for 1G. My casual Elf Warrior decks rejoices. Elvish Vanguard plays nicely here too.
  • Avenger of Zendikar: The landfall ability now puts +2/+2 on all the plant tokens.
  • In your Animar EDH/Commander deck, your commander now gains +2/+2 whenever you cast a creature, and reduces creature costs by 2 for every time this happens. Hot.
  • Arcbound Stinger is a 2/2 flyer for 2 that gives another artifact creature +3/+3 permanently when it dies.
  • Cathar’s Crusade: In EDH/Commander this card starts giving ALL of your creatures +2/+2 for every creature that comes into play for 3WW. So yeah, that would be +8/+8 from a twice resolved Lingering Souls.
  • Carrion Feeder: Gains +2/+2 for every creature sacrified, perhaps in a G/B Zombie deck leveraging Scavenge.
  • Champion of the Parish: Likewise, this guy gets +2/+2 for every incoming human. That’s +4/+4 for W if you cast Raise the Alarm into a Scales.
  • Cenn’s Tactician: Doles out +2/+2 to a creature per turn for W and lets them block two creatures each.
  • Dack’s Duplicate: Boosts +2/+2 every time it attacks the leading player.
  • Deathbringer Thoctar: Turns into a machine gun accumulating 2 counters when something dies and taking them off at will to deal 1 damage. Savage.
  • Descendant of Musamaro: Suddenly becomes playable as a 2G guy who gains 2n-y counters per turn where n = your hand size and y = the hand of the opponent with the least cards.

  • Dirtcowl Wurm: A 3/4 for 5 that gets +2/+2 every time an opponent plays a land will get out of hand fast in EDH.
  • Dragon Blood: Doles out +2/+2 counters every turn for 3, presumably for massive value in combination with some of these other cards.
  • Etched Oracle: This guy gets easier to cast for full value, easily coming in as a 5/5 that can go to 1/1 to draw you 3 cards for 1 mana.
  • Experiment Kraj: Gets all fiesty doling out the +2/+2s every turn.
  • Experiment One: Being able to boost him for double value and ditch the counters at will to ensure he gets the next Evolve Trigger or dodge removal/combat damage is great.
  • Mikaeus, the Lunarch: Comes in one +1/+1 counter bigger, taps to get 2 counters, and trades a single counter from himself into 2 for the whole team. Excellent!
  • Borborygmos: Puts +2/+2 on each creature if he connects.

So as you can see, Hardened Scales, though linear and from a set with dominant fetchlands, may well be usable in multiple formats.  Go forth and break my pet card please. My 100+ copies will thank you.

Bonus MTGFinance notes:

  • M15 Pet cards Goblin Rabblemaster and Chasm Skulker are looking good for returns, with Rabblemaster already in 250% territory. I was in at $3 on Rabblemaster and $1.25 on Skulker and will hold 50% of my Skulkers for longer looking to squeeze some more profits in case he finds a role somewhere before starting sell-off post PTKTK.
  • Modern Masters boxes from last summer have ripened and I’m having little trouble selling cases of 3 for $1200 overseas, representing 55% profits over the entry point of $220/box after fees. With MM2 surrounded by so many question marks I recommend getting out on these boxes this fall and setting up for fresh profits elsewhere. I’ll hold only a single case past Jan 1/15.
  • Modern/Eternal/EDH playable foils from KTK to target so far include: Adamant Negation, Savage Knuckleblade, the Fetchlands, Narset, Enlightened Master and Clever Impersonator. I also like Sidisi, Brood Tyrant, especially if she doesn’t end up Tier 1 in standard, because then we’ll have plenty of time to get her excellent art in foil at lower cost.
  • MTGO specs from Vintage Masters selected using my preferred Card Evaluation Formula (% of metagame x # copies played/deck) have yielded very good returns in a very short period of time. My top two VMA picks, Jace, The Mind Sculptor and Force of Will have both achieved 40-45% returns in just 6 weeks, the equivalent of over 350% per annum. The most popular blue dual lands are already sliding up and should easily provide similar returns by October. Good luck getting that out of your mutual funds.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Review Squared: Journey Into Nyx

By: Travis Allen

Khans of Tarkir, or perhaps more appropriately “Fetchlands of Tarkir,” is bearing down on us quickly. There will be no shortage of things to talk about once we get there, but before we do I want to take a quick look back at Journey Into Nyx. I’ve started publicly reviewing my reviews as an additional level of accountability, and as a learning exercise both for my readers and I. Seeing the calls I made and why I made them can help both you and I be better at it in the future. It also provides a scoreboard for everyone keeping track at home for how well I’m doing. It’s very easy to say “oh X card will be worth $20” or “z is trash and will be bulk,” then forget all about those predictions when they don’t come true. I don’t mind tooting my own horn when I made a public statement and it comes true later, but I’m also willing to own up when I made a bad call, as I did last week in reference to the return on the fetchlands.

A quick note on those: since the article went up there’s been a lot more discussion on the topic. While I steadfastly believe they aren’t in Fate Reforged, I’m warming up to them being in Louie. I still am not wholly convinced, and Chas Andres also agrees that they are unlikely there, but I’d be the worst kind of person if I refused to learn from my mistakes and the insight of others.

That said, let’s see how I did with my review of Journey Into Nyx. Italics will be text from the original review.

White

Bulk:
Dawnbringer Charioteers

Dictate of Heliod
Launch the Fleet
Skybind

All right where I want them to be. Launch the Fleet is hanging on at the upper end of bulk as there are whispers it may be good enough. Perhaps in two months it will be. It’s right where anticipated for rotation though.

 

Aegis of the Gods
Rotation: Bulk

Currently $1 on MTGPrice, I was spot on here. It’s seen close to no play at in any format.

 

Deicide
Rotation: Bulk – $1

$1.96 on MTGPrice, and about $1-$1.50 on TCGP. Admittedly better than bulk, but not by much.

 

Godsend
Rotation: $2-$3

$5.63 on MTGPrice right now, with a few copies available at $3.50 on TCGPlayer. I had the right idea about where this was going to land, although it’s a few bucks more than I thought it may be. My expectations of its competitive chops were accurate, so I think what we’re seeing here is the limited supply of Journey pushing the price a little higher than the card would normally have. Same thing for Deicide, and many other cards I’ll be looking at today.

 

Blue

Bulk:
Daring Thief
Hypnotic Siren
Polymorphous Rush
Scourge of Fleets

Battlefield Thaumaturge
Rotation:???

I don’t think Thaumaturge will take off right away. There isn’t anywhere he belongs yet so it will take time for him to find a deck. Delver took some time before he had a proper home, after all. We may even have to wait for rotation and the subsequent cardpool/metagame to undergo a major shift. He’ll require the right enablers for sure. If we get the right mix of spells he’ll be a format role-player, but if we don’t get the tools he’ll be filling boxes of shame nationwide. His best chance today is probably going to be with Young Pyromancer.

I mostly talked about how good the card seems like it could be, and I still stand by that assessment. More problematically is that since this review Thaumaturge was printed in an event deck. After what happened with Advent of the Wurm, I’m staying away from anything in those decks. Thaumaturge may eventually end up a few bucks but I’m not going to own any when it does.

 

Dictate of Kruphix
Rotation: Bulk – $1

Bingo.

 

Sage of Hours
Rotation: $2-$3

$1.96 on MTGPrice. Overall he’s a tad cheaper than I expected, but this is a slow grower anyways. I’m still a big fan of this long term, and with the recently spoiled Hardened Scales this could potentially be a fringe player in Standard. Not good, mind you, since Wizards doesn’t want combo anywhere near Standard, but a fringe player nonetheless.

 

Black

Bulk:
Dictate of Erebos
Doomwake Giant
Extinguish All Hope
King Macar, the Gold-Cursed
Silence the Believers
Worst Fears

 

Master of the Feast
Rotation: Bulk? $10?

Master of the Feast is going to be an all or nothing card. Either the drawback is going to be too much and he’s going to end up at total bulk, or he’s going to pull a Desecration Demon and climb to $10+. Either way, I think he’s hitting $1 before he gets his chance to shine so you’ll have some time to make a decision either way.

This has proven reasonably accurate so far. He’s dropped to $3.50 on MTGPrice and I haven’t seen him in a single competitive list yet. There’s clearly a bit of lingering demand, as he hasn’t quite fallen all the way into the bulk bin yet. He’s been steadily dropping since release, so my prediction that he reaches $1 before possibly spiking is still viable. At this point in time I’d say it seems more likely he ends up at under $2 rather than tears up Standard.

 

Red

Bulk:
Bearer of the Heavens
Dictate of the Twin Gods
Harness by Force
Spawn of Thraxes
Twinflame

 

Eidolon of the Great Revel
Rotation: Bulk – $1

This is my biggest miss by a wide margin, so let’s see what went wrong. Here’s what I had to say about it.

Probably more important for Legacy and Modern than Standard…The Legacy and Modern implications will be different. Both formats are packed with small spells so he’ll have much more relative strength. He’ll die more often for sure, but at least anything that’s killing him is probably going to shock it’s controller….The biggest issue financially is that there’s going to be exactly one deck in each format that wants to cast him. This isn’t like Courser of Kruphix that can go in any deck that makes green mana. Eidolon only goes in the most aggressive of red lists, which means the overall demand for him will remain lowish. I see him slipping towards bulk prices, but I don’t think he’ll get too far below $1 or so. I don’t believe that he’s a Vexing Devil or Goblin Guide, but he’s still better than Firedrinker Satyr. If he has a very slow descent or even seems surprisingly resilient after the honeymoon period is over, that probably means the casual market likes him, which will make him safe as a long-term pickup regardless of his tournament success.

I was mostly correct in my power level read, perhaps being a tad conservative. I was also right that it would be a bigger deal in Modern and Legacy than Standard. Where I erred appears to be in my appreciation for how much a card of this caliber can cost. It turns out that being one of the best burn spells in eternal formats, even if it is only playable in exactly the burn deck, is enough to make the card worth over $7. There’s also some amount of casual burn demand that I overlooked. Plenty of individuals out there that enjoy playing Lava Spike at their kitchen table, I’m sure much to the chagrin of their peer group. I did have the foresight to give myself an out; I commented that if his price didn’t decline as quickly as you would think that there would be more than the originally anticipated demand. I still feel far short of where I needed to be though.

The lesson here is that single-deck staples are still capable of reaching respectable prices, even for decks I personally don’t care much for. I had the right idea with Revel, but didn’t respect how much a card of that type can be worth. In the future I need to recognize that multi-format staples, even if they’re only a staple in a single deck, will probably fetch at least several dollars.

 

Prophetic Flamespeaker
Rotation: $8+

Flamespeaker is $5.64 on MTGPrice right now, so while I was a little aggressive, I’m still in the right neighborhood.

Being a mythic from a small spring set as this, it won’t take much to get his price up. I think he’s going to come down from his roughly $10 preorder price in the near future, but will climb above $10 again when people start realizing how much power he puts on the table.

Flamespeaker has seen some occasional play in Modern Jund, as well as a handful of Standard builds floating around. There isn’t much doubt to his power level, rather, it’s a question of whether anyone can utilize it. The fact that he isn’t $2 or $3 means I didn’t completely miss and that people are on board, just not enough yet. I think I was afraid of missing the next big thing here, so I set the price a little higher in the hopes that it wouldn’t look like I way undervalued him if he was $15 today.

Overall I don’t feel too bad about this. I think it’s entirely possible he does climb above $10 in the next two months, and even if he didn’t, I was only slightly too eager.

 

Green

Bulk:
Dictate of Karametra
Hero’s Bane
Hydra Broodmaster
Pheres-Band Warchief
Setessan Tactics

 

Eidolon of Blossoms
Rotation: $3-$7

I expect Eidolon of Blossoms to very slowly dwindle towards $2-3 but it may be sticky due to people wanting to try it out and likely needing three to four copies. I don’t think it will really get a whole lot lower than that as some people will always be interested. Beyond that, if it does turn out to be solid it will behave like Courser of Kruphix and Sylvan Caryatid. I wouldn’t get rid of these at the Prerelease, and if it’s the type of card you see yourself playing, don’t feel bad about trading for a playset. The worst that happens is that you trade for them at $2-$3 and they end up at $1.

While my expectation of Blossoms’ price was a little high, overall I was spot on. My description of the power level was fairly accurate. It dwindled in value after release, and after a solid performance at the Pro Tour it jumped north of $4. Only in the last few weeks has it dwindled back beneath the $3 mark. What’s  keeping Blossoms from being $10 is that it hasn’t seen much success since the Pro Tour. The complete lack of support in M15 but rather the printing of Back to Nature didn’t help, that’s for sure. Khans looks like it may provide some assistance though, as Courser is poised to be one of the best cards in the format and the Ascendancy cycle is looking like it may be playable at this point. In general I may have been a little on the eager side of things when it came to Blossoms, but I’m pleased with the call.

 

Gold

Bulk:
Revel of the Fallen God

 

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
Rotation: $9-$13

I fell short here, but not by an embarrassing amount.

The one thing Ajani has going for him will be his relative scarcity. That may push his price a bit higher than we would normally see for a fringe Planeswalker. If he does about as well as I expect, he should mostly be in the low teens and even under ten. If he sticks around $15, it will be because of the spring set bump.

With a current price of $16.50, it’s clear Ajani outperformed my expectations by ten or twenty percent. He’s been mildly playable so far in Standard, but on the other hand I didn’t see any copies at the recent SCG invitational in New Jersey either. I also made sure in the original review to recognize the possibility of his price sticking a little higher with attribution to the set size.

I feel like my read on his power level was quite accurate given how much tournament play he’s seen, which leads me to believe that the reason his price is higher than I anticipated is because of set economics. That’s not a bad place to be.

 

Athreos, God of Passage
Rotation: $14-$18+?

Hoo boy, now that is a God. He’s aggressively costed, revives a previously-successful Standard archetype, and will be popular in EDH. Those are all markers of a hefty price tag. The only reason I’m not expecting $40+ is because there is a little too much else going on in this set for him to turn into a Voice of Resurgence.

People think Athreos is good, and for good reason. Because of that his price will be slow to fall. If he sees very little Standard play, I don’t think he can get much below $10-$13. If he’s part of a major Standard deck, expect him to stick closer to $20, or perhaps even more depending on how pronounced the small set effect is.

This wasn’t as bad as Eidolon of the Revel, but it was close. Athreos was possibly the most-hyped card coming into the set. Many saw him as a legitimate engine, capable of putting a lot of pressure on the opponent either through creature recursion or life payments. While it isn’t the type of card I like to play, I respected the excitement of those around me and judged his price accordingly.

To be fair, it took over a month before he dropped below $15 on MTGPrice so clearly there was continuing demand. He just couldn’t cut it though, and subsequently his price dropped to match his tournament results. His golden age has probably passed, so at $8 I’d probably ship him now.

I messed up Revel pretty good but I’m not beating myself up over Athreos. Many people, including pros, really thought Athreos was going to be a big player. I listened to those around me and made a call based on that. If he was as good as people thought he may have been, my numbers would have been where they needed to be. Ultimately this is a miss, but one in which I think I made the right play and got a bad result.

 

Iroas, God of Victory
Rotation: $6-$9

People will play him, and there will be some casual appeal, but it won’t be enough to keep him inflated with several other spicy mythics and rares in the set. The small set effect should keep him above Nylea and Heliod, but not by too much.

Currently at $5.38 on MTGPrice, I like where I landed on this guy. I said he should be more expensive than Nylea and Heliod. Nylea is seeing a bit of a renaissance right now and has climbed a bit above Iroas, but Heliod remains low.

 

Keranos, God of Storms
Rotation: $6-$9

On the one hand, Keranos has the best or second best text box of all the gods this time around. He is always doing something that matters, whether it’s putting cards into your hand or draining your opponent’s board/life total. On the other hand he’s a little expensive and it will take some time for his ability to really take a game over. I think he’s nearly as playable as Athreos is, but unlike Athreos will likely not be a four-of wherever he ends up. We also don’t have a home for him to slot into right away which makes it tougher for him to maintain his current $10-$15. The best advice I can give on Keranos is to expect nothing in the short term, but pay close attention to the block Pro Tour.

Keranos is $16 right now but I’m totally calling this a win. Why? From June 1st to September 1st, he was in the $6-$9 range. It was only a week or so ago that his price rose so dramatically. I am also under the impression that his spike was due in part to a buyout, which can change prices prematurely. (Not unfounded changes mind you, just premature.) Once we started to see him pop up in Modern occasionally or two after release I was warming up to him, and was recommending him as a pickup by the time we hit August. I had an accurate read at release, and I was able to update my opinion on him over the summer as it became clear he was a threat in more than one format.

 

Kruphix, God of Horizons
Rotation: $3-$5

Currently $3.43. The price is dead on and my review of “Ugh.” says everything else.

 

Pharika, God of Affliction
Rotation: $4-$6

Pharika is preselling on Channelfireball right now for a whopping $7 so there obviously there isn’t a whole lot of hype surrounding her at this point. Most people are relatively unimpressed, but I’ve heard from a few intelligent people that there’s some silver lining here. She’s cheap with a nice fat body. She’s in green, so we can see her come down on turn two, potentially allowing you to put four colored mana symbols into play on turn three and swing for five. She recycles your dead bodies into threats, which is great in attrition decks, a common theme for GB. Perhaps most importantly and mostly under the radar, those snakes she puts into play are enchantments. That means they trigger constellation, such as on Eidolon of Blossoms or Underworld Coinsmith or Doomwake Giant.

Will any of that be enough to keep her above bulk god prices? Honestly, probably not. She’s going to slip before she rises again, and if she ever does make it back above $10 I don’t think it will be overnight. You’ll have time to react if she sees an uptick in play and price.

Pharika is $4 at the moment so my price prediction was quite good. She’s done about as much as I thought she would up until now, which is to say basically nothing.

I’ll use this space to say that Pharika is growing on me. As I said earlier, Courser is shaping up to be one of the defining cards of the new meta. Pharika really likes Courser, as he adds double devotion. She also likes cards such as Eidolon of Blossoms, which also likes Courser. How about that! Pharika is even in Sultai, which is giving us delve and the cards to support it. With wedge cards floating around it may not be too tough to turn Pharika on. I’d keep my eye on her going forward.

 

Hall of Triumph
Rotation: $1-$3

Mono-Blue could possibly be in the market for two of these, and decks running Prophetic Flamespeaker could conceivably be interested as well. I believe this will always manage to stay a little above bulk, and will probably climb towards $5 in the months and years after rotation.

At $.74, I’d say I was in the right ballpark. Mono-Blue did in fact start running these, with a few having shown up in the Top 8 of some SCG Opens. That deck has been on the downswing for awhile though, as all the other decks keep getting better and better while it gets nothing. The deck slowing down has prevented Hall of Triumph from getting anywhere. I maintain that the card’s outlook is good two or three years down the line, but that’s a long time to wait to make a dollar or two per card.

 

Lands

Mana Confluence
Rotation: $9-$12

I’d say we’ll see this in the $10-$12 range for the most part, but it may take some time to get there. If it ends up over-performing we’re probably looking at it being $15+. If Thoughtseize can’t break $20, I don’t think MC can.

As of September 3rd, Mana Confluence was just under $11 – right at my predicted target. The next day it jumped to over $16, where it remains today. This, like Keranos, was doing exactly what I expected it to right up until just a few days ago. In Confluence’s case, the spike was a result of PAX. Once the Khans spoilers began trickling in people jumped on Confluence. I figured a jump was coming but I didn’t think we would see it until after rotation. I guess people are getting a little wiser about when they need to grab their staples.

I previously said I didn’t think MC could break $20, but I’m revising that now. While I don’t think it’s an auto-4-of in every wedge deck, I do think it will be an important component of the metagame. The presence of fetchlands should also actually help MC. Fetchlands are “dual” lands right up until you crack them, at which point they no longer offer both colors of mana. For decks trying to hit CDE consistently, fetches may fall short. The Temples and MC will have to do some work to fill in the gaps.

 

The Temples
Rotation: $7-$8+

Most of the other Temples are in the $5-$6 range and there will be considerably more of those than there are of these. Lands nearly always rise at rotation and there’s no reason to expect ones with such a strong effect to behave any differently. Don’t hesitate to trade or buy your set now. You pretty much can’t lose. Hoard any you can get in trade because it’s likely enough that they break $10 that it’s totally worth risking them being $4-$5.

Temple of Epiphany is $7 and Malady is $11 right now. Epiphany is spot on; Malady ended up climbing more than I originally anticipated because of how good the BG combination became in Standard. (It’s currently the most expensive scryland.)

Unless the missing cycle of lands in Khans ends up being a big deal for constructed, I really like the scrylands as a component of Standard manabases with fetches in the format. As I mentioned above, fetches can’t continually make two colors. This is going to put a lot more pressure on Standard decks to keep the scrylands around in order to consistently hit their costs.

 

At the end of the day I’m reasonably pleased with how my prediction of the set went. I did a great job identifying the bulk cards. Two cards that jumped well past my prediction only did so in the last week or two, before that having followed my timeline closely. They’re also two cards that I later on earmarked as good pickups on Twitter and/or in real life, so I was onto them after the review went live.

The biggest miss here was Eidolon of the Great Revel, where I was off by a decimal place. I failed to appreciate just how much demand the older formats and casual circles would place on such a narrow card. I’ll need to be more careful about respecting just how much demand a card such as this can generate. Beyond that a handful of my predictions were off, but only by a handful of dollars at worst. You can’t really expect to get every single card exactly right, so those gaps between my guesses and the true prices are mostly within the accepted margins of error. I’d say I deserve a B+ or an A- on this review, with Revel being my only big strike.

Ancestral Recall: Casual Demand and Why it’s Important

Jared is on vacation this week, so in the meantime enjoy this piece he originally wrote on March 3rd, 2014.

By: Jared Yost

This one goes out to you casual players. You’re the heart of the game and the reason why Wizards has continued to become more and more successful as the years go on.

Let’s face it, without casual demand like players buying individual booster packs Wizards would close their doors sooner rather than later. The demand for the game and its cards cannot be sustained by the singles market alone. Sure, more financially minded players realize that it is a losing game to keep cracking packs in the hope that you’ll score at least three Brimaz, but for many players the act of opening a pack, smelling the cards, and going through each one and even sometimes being surprised by a valuable card in the pack can’t be understated. There is a reason that Magic’s de facto comic strip is called Cardboard Crack. We can all be severely addicted to our hobbies and Magic doesn’t escape this phenomenon.

One of the ways I learned to save money playing Magic was to stop cracking packs since it is one of the most inefficient ways to acquire valuable cards for your collection. As a casual player though, finance is the last thing on your mind. One of the main reasons that you play the game is to crack packs. Cracking packs is so awesome that they created the Limited format based on around it, because even binder grinders and highly competitive players need a way to crack packs other than to just open them. Not you. You’re just fine with crackin‘ ‘em open, and the more the better. What I’m now going to tell you is that there is a way for you to still satiate your addiction while not throwing value out the window, but it isn’t for the faint of heart.

As players, we can capitalize on our own addiction by setting aside a booster box from each set we want to purchase and then later sell them down the road at a profit as sealed product. Now, I realize that the temptation of opening that booster box may be too much for some of you, yet a very clear pattern that has emerged from sealed product is that it is bound to go up in value over the years.

Getting Value from Booster Boxes

Sealed product has a proven history of going up in value and booster boxes are the prime example of this. Setting aside a booster box from each set you want to buy is a great way to pay your way forward in Magic. If you’re going to buy two booster boxes when a set comes out and maybe even get a deal then, why not set one aside in your closet and sell it a few years later when it has doubled or more in value? A lot of people even purchase cases though this is too rich for my blood. Why not set aside two booster boxes, even three booster boxes from a case?

Let’s do the math for Innistrad, which is a fairly recent set and follows this trend. These were the preorder prices for Innistrad before it came out September 30th, 2011:

1

If we bought a case:

$519.95 + ~$20 shipping = $539.95 total

$539.95 / 6 boxes = $89.99 per box

If we bought two boxes (closer to an actual causal purchase):

($89.75 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.5

  • This purchase is more expensive per box (~$93.75 per box) but cheaper overall.

It’s now the current day and we loved drafting Innistrad. We want to do a few triple Innistrad flashback drafts of the set. (None of that Dark Ascension nonsense, we’re pure Innistrad only!)

Now that we know how much this would have cost us when preordering, let’s find out how much it would cost us now:

2

Holy moly what a difference!

Case:

$1067 per case (which is the only seller, it could easily jump up in price again.)

+ ~$20 shipping = $1,087 total

$1,087 / 6 boxes = $181.17 per box

Two Boxes:

($169.99 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $347.98

If you could afford the initial purchase up front back in 2011 two booster boxes of Innistrad today was worth 64% of a case if preordered when the set came out! If you could restrain yourself and set aside three booster boxes, you would have recouped 94% of what you originally spent. Not too shabby for basically doing nothing and still cracking three or four booster boxes.

If you bought two booster boxes of Innistrad back in 2011 and then set one aside in a closet until now you could sell it and reclaim 91% of your initial purchase in 2011. The second booster box has practically paid for the first one.

For the more financially minded, this probably seems pretty obvious. “Duh, the set is out of print, of course I can sell boxes at a premium.” What most people don’t realize however is that this is one of the safest ways to make money from Magic. That’s right, even sealed product like booster boxes isn’t off the table when it comes to picking things that gain value. It might take you a while to find a buyer but this is probably the lowest risk call you can make as a speculator that will guarantee you a return. It’s basically the index fund of the Magic world.

Let’s look at Return to Ravnica, which I’m sure most of you are definitely familiar with and see if the trend holds for more recent sets. Here are prices from September 2012:

3

Back in September 2012, you could preorder Return to Ravnica for basically the same cost as Innistrad (though cases seem to be pricier). I note this because sometimes Wizards will increase their pack price MSRP. The last increase was when packs went from $3.25 to $3.99 MSRP when Time Spiral was released in 2006. Thankfully this has not happened in quite a while, though it makes me feel like they may increase their pack price soon.

Anyways back to the math:

Case:

$535.99 per case + ~$20 shipping = $555.99 total

$555.99 / 6 boxes = $92.67 per box

Two Boxes:

($89.94 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.88 ($93.94 per box)

Again, boxes are slightly more expensive when bought individually because sellers will charge more for shipping individual boxes.

These are the current prices today:

4

Hmm, they haven’t gone up in value too much. If we go by the lows:

Case:

$565.00 per case + ~$20 shipping = $585.00 total

$585.00 / 6 boxes = $97.50 per box

Two Boxes:

($92.49 * 2)  + ~$8 shipping = $192.98 ($96.49 per box)

From these calculations for Return to Ravnica then and now we can see:

1. It seems like the price has remained stagnant for Return to Ravnica boxes so far since it only went up $3, unlike Innistrad which doubled.

2. Buying Return to Ravnica in case form today is noticeably more expensive than buying it per box if you were to just buy six boxes. Usually individual boxes are more expensive compared to box price per case. I’m predicting this is because the set is currently in a state of flux, where vendors may have lowered their box prices to get them out the door to make room for future product. We can see this with Cataclysm Games, where if you buy six boxes (($92.95 * 6) + ~$10 shipping = $567.7) versus a case ($569.95 + $10 shipping = $579.95) you’re actually saving $12.25.

3. If we preordered a case and saved three boxes, or preordered two boxes and saved one, we have yet to see a significant return on that investment 1 year, 5 months later. We only gained ~$5 per box if we ordered by the caseload and only ~$2.50 per box if we bought individual boxes. This leads me to believe that there is a lot of Return to Ravnica product out there.

We seem to have conflicting evidence. On the one hand Innistrad has gained significant value but on the other hand Return to Ravnica has not. Am I missing something here? Was Innistrad that much more popular than Return to Ravnica? (Well, I do think that triple Innistrad draft is still a popular format at this point and is more popular than triple Return to Ravnica draft (Pack Rat!)). Was Innistrad printed significantly less than Return to Ravnica? Is that two year birthday for a set that important? Maybe a little of all these reasons is why Return to Ravnica sealed product has stagnated.

One reason I’d venture to guess that Innistrad has climbed up in price so quickly is that it has valuable eternal staples like Liliana, Geist, and Snapcaster. Return to Ravnica currently does not contain as many valuable eternal staples.

My best guess though? Not enough time has passed. Given enough time Return to Ravnica will go up in value. If we use the index funds example, you’re looking just to outperform the market, not become the next penny stock mega winner. (That is, pick up a random $0.20 rare and hope that it spikes to $10+.) There is no doubt in my mind that Return to Ravnica is a very popular set and I am sure in time this will become evident as the price of RtR sealed product goes up. It just looks like hitting that 2nd birthday is the important defining characteristic of the price bump for booster boxes.

Getting Value from Other Casual Products

Another way you can tell that casual players are so important is because Wizards has been releasing new products on a more consistent schedule than ever before in their history. Back in the day, we were lucky to get a core set once every two years (which everyone hated because it only consisted of reprints) and the three block sets of the year (one big set in the fall, and two smaller sets spaced out through winter). This lead to a lot of stagnant Magic. It was easy to get bored. This created cycles of people leaving the game then coming back later once more unpopular sets rotated from Standard.

These days more people are coming back to the game than ever and they’re staying. Combine this with the addition of all the brand new players per year and you have a recipe for success. Let’s go over some of the ways that Wizards has catered to the casual crowd:

Commander Decks (Commander 2011, Commander 2013)

Here were the price of Commander Decks in 2011 about six months after they came out:

5

6

7

Here are what they are today:

8

9

10

(Heavenly Inferno is currently ending on auctions at anywhere from $90 for non-English versions to up to $200 for English versions)

Very obvious upward trend in prices. Even if you bought the unpopular commander decks at the time (that is, the decks without Legacy staples in them) you still made out like a bandit if you waited to sell. They were all selling for about MSRP even six months after their release.

This is why a lot of Magic financiers recommended for Commander 2013 to even buy the non-Mind Seize decks. Even though the rest of the decks didn’t seem to have much to offer Constructed formats, casuals don’t give two craps about constructed potential. They just want to attack you with their angels, demons, and dragons as fast as possible. I see no reason why the current batch of commander decks won’t also follow this pattern as they age.

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks (essentially, all the products that MSRP’ed for $19.99)

Archenemy – June 2010 MSRP $19.99

Today’s prices:

11

Planechase 2009 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

12

Planechase 2012 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

13

14

 

Duel Decks

Duel Deck

Current Price

Elves vs. Goblins

$200.00

Jace vs. Chandra

$130.00

Divine vs. Demonic

$170.00

Garruk vs. Liliana

$65.00

Phyrexia vs. The Coalition

$32.00

Elspeth vs. Tezzeret

$40.00

Knights vs. Dragons

$50.00

Ajani vs. Nicol Bolas

$43.00

Venser vs. Koth

$25.00

Izzet vs. Golgari

$25.00

Sorin vs. Tibalt

$19.00

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks Price Analysis

Popular casual products are the single-deck sealed products which are Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy. These products offered more than just decks because Planechase and Archenemy have oversized cards (which also have value if you try to sell them individually) and Commander added brand new cards to the existing card pool. On the other hand, Duel Decks seem to be hit or miss. I think this is because they only consist of reprints and that Wizards seems to have been watering down the most recent ones by not including more powerful spells like the ones found in Divine vs. Demonic or Jace vs. Chandra.

In other words, you shouldn’t pick up extra Duel Decks unless there is something special in them (Demonic Tutor and Counterspell with Jace art are good examples). They take the longest to go up in value and the gains factored in with the time it takes are too long for the profits to matter.

If you’re interested in holding on to extra sealed product for value you want to be looking at picking up Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy (if they do Archenemy again) products. All of these products have evidence showing they go up in value over time.

Casual Players Are Important

Without casual players we would have no one to crack individual packs. Without cracking packs booster boxes would never become valuable. We would also have no one to buy other sealed products that Wizards releases because they look cool or add new aspects to the game in a non-competitive fashion. This would make buying the sealed products Wizards releases a complete waste of money if you’re trying to hold them for value. This clearly isn’t the case. We’re lucky to have such an amazing fanbase behind Magic because without them the game would surely go away. From a numbers perspective, we can see that all it takes to capitalize on Magic’s fanbase is to hold onto a few extra sealed products here or there.

Casual players, you may not realize it but buying these products is itself an investment in the game. Even if you are just buying the products to play with, with no intention of wanting to buy extra to sit on them or make money, my advice to you is to buy what you want as soon as you can afford it. Sealed products are never going to be cheaper than when they first come out, no matter if you’re eyeing something like a booster case or even just considering picking up a duel deck. If you ever have the inclination to help your hobby pay for itself, pick up a few extra sealed products and sit on them. Eventually you can cash them out to cover the costs of buying in even if that is a few years down the road. I believe the evidence that I’ve presented in this article has more than proved that in all cases.

The upcoming Conspiracy set is one of the reasons I’m writing this article. I would definitely be looking to pick up as much Conspiracy as I can and holding whatever I choose not to open. It looks like it is going to be another huge casual hit that will certainly go up in value over time.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY