Magic is dead. Long Live Magic.

August 27, 2014 Travis Allen 16 Comments

This summer has been a particularly quiet one for those of us into the Magic market. I haven’t gone digging through my bulk rare box for spikes once, none of the stuff in my spec box has moved, and Modern prices have stayed flat. Overall it’s been real boring for most of us, and everyone has been looking forward to the fall for some exciting changes.

Boy are we getting them.

Unforeseen Consequences

First off, read this article. Read every word on the page. Do it twice if you have to. It’s probably the most important words about Magic that have been written and will be written this year. (This entire article assumes you’ve read that one.)

I’m going to stick these here so that we can keep staring at them while trying to grasp what is happening.

This is clearly a massive change to the game. Not only will this affect things on the surface, such as length of format legality, card availability, and format demands, it will have smaller, quieter effects as well, such as design and development decisions, manabase concerns, and reprint ramifications. We won’t fully be living in the new world until the fall of 2016 which means it’s going to take years before we fully appreciate the impact this is going to have on the game and markets. We’re not the only ones that have to wait awhile to see how it all plays out either. Wizards will be watching closely, and like all major changes they roll out, expect some tweaking to the system after a few million players push it from every direction.

Given how long it’s going to take to fully get into the swing of the new system, along with the likelihood of Wizards making some additional changes along the way, we won’t really know how the markets will react for years. Myself and plenty of others will be making some educated guesses over the coming weeks and months, but I don’t doubt there will be plenty of fallout that will be nearly impossible to see from here. For instance, as I mentioned at the start of the article, typically the summer months have a drought of interesting market movement. Will a brand new block hitting in May change that entirely, or are people truly tied to the game seasonally rather than by a set release schedule? There’s no way to know for sure until we get to that point.

Another major unknown will be the way inference and speculation is conducted. Right now, everyone making decisions based on educated guesses about the future leans heavily on the known block model. For instance, take Ravnica block. Once we knew that we were going to be returning to Ravnica back in early 2012, you could make a fair assumption that shocklands would be in the block. If that was true, then the next leap was that the fetchlands wouldn’t be printed in Standard until at the earliest fall of 2014. Why? You quite reasonably figured it unlikely Wizards would print fetches and shocks alongside each other in Standard. Knowing that shocks would be in the upcoming Ravnica block in the fall of ‘12, it was clear then that fetches couldn’t be printed in the expansion the following fall, meaning that the earliest you could see them was fall of ‘14. For a sense of scale, this means that back when Delver of Secrets and Green Sun’s Zenith were legal you could have predicted the earliest date at which fetches would be printed again was two and a half years away. Knowing that, you could make trades and buys feeling confident that there wouldn’t be a major printing of the cards anytime soon. All of that information was derived simply from a thorough understanding of how the block structure worked, as well as experience with how Wizards treats Standard.

Those same types of logical inferences will be available to us eventually, but it’s going to take some time to figure out. For instance, is Wizards going to put a rare land cycle in every block? That would mean three big land cycles would be in Standard at any given time, which is a lot of mana. Are they going to do every other block? How are they going to approach flavor-specific reprints, such as Urborg, Tomb to Yawgmoth? What about cards whose power level they’re concerned with? In the past, some of the most dangerous cards are printed in the spring set because they have the least amount of time to potentially ruin Standard. That won’t really be a method of controlling overpowered cards anymore, since everything will be legal for roughly the same amount of time.

A great deal of information we use to make informed purchases and sales on a daily basis comes from understanding the block rotation model and what Wizards is willing to print where. With this major change that’s all getting turned on its head. Our ability to confidently make predictions about what will and won’t happen is going to be hampered for quite some time.

Moving on, let’s take a closer look at those animated rotation models to see what we can glean.

Conveyor Belt

Under the old system, there was a rotation every four sets that happened once a year in the fall. From fall to fall, the number of sets legal would slowly grow. Standard was at it’s smallest immediately after a fall set was released and at it’s largest immediately after a core set came out. (We’re currently in the largest Standard format.)

This system meant that with each set released there was less and less of a chance it would have a major impact on the format. When Khans releases there will be a giant Standard shakeup, but that’s more of a product of Return to Ravnica leaving rather than Khans being added to the pool. As Louie and Dewey are respectively added to Standard, they are mathematically less and less likely to affect major changes. Because the Standard card pool keeps adding cards without removing them, the power level continues to rise and it becomes more and more difficult for new cards to have an impact. This effect is more pronounced in Modern, Legacy, and Vintage, where very few sets add more than a card or two to those formats. All of this builds until the following fall, where half the format drops out and it’s a whole new ballgame again.

In the new block model things are going to happen much faster. There will now be major format changes every other set. Twice a year, both in the fall and in the spring, a third of the format is going to disappear. With that many cards dropping away, established decks are going to lose huge chunks of their constituent parts. Even if any one particular deck doesn’t lose much itself, the loss of some particular predator may allow another deck to spring up that was not viable previously. For instance, when Good Jace was originally printed, it was alongside both Bloodbraid Elf and Blightning. Jace was mostly weak in that format because those two cards did such a great job punishing him. Once Alara rotated and took BBE and Blightning with it, Jace suddenly sprang into power because the cards keeping him in check disappeared. (Also other good blue cards were printed.)

We’re going to end up seeing faster, more dramatic cycles on a more regular basis. Every other set some several hundred cards will rotate and suddenly lose a large portion of value, and some previously underused gems are going to spring to the top of the heap. When Block D comes out, not only will it introduce a whole slew of new cards, but Block A will fall away. The cards in Block B and C, previously influenced by Block A, will now be viewed in an entire new light.

Some particularly great sweeper in Block A may have supported an entire control deck made mostly of cards from Block B and C. When Block A rotates, that control deck is suddenly going to be missing a key component. Meanwhile, a great aggro deck hiding in Blocks B and C that was waiting for control to wane will become viable. The financial implications of this are pretty clear. That control deck is going to have wild price swings on not only the sweeper that rotates out of the format, but also all the other cards that relied on it. Meanwhile, those aggro sleepers are going to jump once the deck becomes tier one. All of this is happening with cards in Blocks A, B, and C, even though it’s Block D that just released.

Constant changes to the card pool are going to mean constant changes to card values. Format pillars will lose support and drop appropriately, while powerful cards kept in check by existing metagames will jump once their predator is gone. The resulting market will be a constant cycle of large drop-offs and big gains. This is as much a double-edged sword as I could imagine.

On A Rail

Another factor to all of this is length of card legality. Here is how long each set of Return to Ravnica is legal in Standard:
Return to Ravnica: ~24 months (Oct ‘12 – Oct ‘14)
Gatecrash: ~20 months (Feb ‘13 – Oct ‘14)
Dragon’s Maze: ~17 months (May ‘13 – Oct ‘14)
Magic 2014: ~15 months (July ‘13 – Oct ‘14)

Now let’s see how long sets will be legal in the new Standard:

Blood: ~19 months (Oct ‘15 – May ‘17)
Sweat: ~15 months (Feb ‘16 – May ‘17)

A few things immediately jump out when we look at these durations. We no longer have to endure two whole years of Standard dominated by obscenely powerful cards such as Sphinx’s Revelation, Thoughtseize, or Shocklands.The most powerful cards will only hang around in Standard for roughly as long as the spring sets dol now. Think about how long Voice of Resurgence and Blood Baron have been in Standard – that will be the longest period cards are legal for.

The second set will be shorter for even less amount of time, about what core sets are legal for now. Sweat releases in winter of 2016, which is historically around February. Think Gatecrash and Dark Ascension. It will be legal until the following year’s spring release, around the time Dragon’s Maze and Journey into Nyx release. Core set cards with a similar lifespan have been Mutavault and Thragtusk.

Summing all that up, nothing will be around as long as Revelation has been. The longest a card will exist in Standard is about how long we’ve had Voice right now, or how long Vengevine was legal. The shortest a card will exist for is just a bit over a year, such as how long Mutavault has been legal. The longest time period a card can exist is a good bit shorter than we’re used to, and the gap between the longest lasting cards and the shortest ones has been narrowed significantly.

The smoothing of the duration of legality is going to push towards more uniform prices on cards across sets. Because most cards will be legal for about as long as any other card, the concern that you won’t get to play with card A as long as card B won’t be too much of a worry. It was much easier to justify buying into Revelations or Thoughtseizes immediately after their release because they were clearly format-defining and would exist for what felt like forever. Voice of Resurgence, on the other hand, was a harder pill to swallow because you had so much less time to use it.

Similarly, there will be less imperative to purchase those key AAA cards. Don’t feel like investing in the hottest format staple revealed in Khans? Don’t sweat it as much. It’s not going to be around nearly as long as it would have been without the change. Eighteen months isn’t exactly a short period of time, but it’s half-a-year less than it would have been. You also won’t see cards ruining formats in tandem nearly as much. If two cards together are format-warping (think Splinter Twin and Deceiver Exarch) and are from two different sets, they’ll be spending less time legal together than they would have. In addition to this, rapid format changes means that what is a format pillar today may not be a few months from now.

Interloper

The draft formats, just like format legality, are getting a good shake up as well. One thing that’s up in the air is what the draft format will look like in two years. For instance, Theros was a “traditional” draft model with a 6:2:1 ratio. An average Theros card is roughly six times less rare than an average Journey into Nyx card, not adjusting for set sizes. I can’t imagine the price on Thoughtseize if it was printed in Journey rather than Theros.

The upcoming Khans of Tarkir set will be a bit different, with the three draft formats looking like this: KTK/KTK/KTK, Dewey/KTK/KTK, Louie/Louie/Dewey. Here we see a 5:2:2 ratio that should close the gap a bit on the distribution between the first set and the rest of the block. Cards in Khans will be more available than the other two blocks, but the difference will not be as drastic as between Theros and Journey into Nyx.

Beyond Khans is uncertainty. We can be reasonably confident that Blood and Sweat will be drafted together without Tears getting involved. Our estimation then is that the two draft formats for that block (and most typical blocks after that) will be Blood/Blood/Blood and Sweat/Blood/Blood. That creates an unfortunate 5:1 ratio, where for every five packs of Blood opened, only one of Sweat will be, resulting in a similar distribution of rares as Theros to Journey into Nyx. That’s a severe disparity in the new Standard, so I’m wondering if we’ll see Wizards try and curb it somehow with a different draft model. Perhaps we’ll see Sweat/Sweat/Blood? That would bring the ratio to 2:1, which is a lot more balanced than 5:1. (Again, not adjusting for set size.) Obviously in a 5:1 ratio the prices on the small set can quickly grow to obscene levels while severely suppressing values on large set cards.

Hazard Course

Earlier I mentioned that the new block cycle is a double-edged sword. I say this because the new format is going to better reward those that pay attention and more severely punish those that don’t keep up.

Fall rotation is one of the most financially active periods of the game. Not only do all the cards exiting the format take a dump, you’ve got brand new cards hitting the scene with volatile prices and existing cards that couldn’t hack it in the old format get a new lease on life. Up until now, this has only happened once a year. Now that rotation will be happening twice, there will be twice as much time that prices will be correcting to meet the demands of the new format.

If you’re on the ball you’ll be moving your rotating staples ahead of the game, just as you’ve been doing now. You’ll also be targeting cards that are undervalued in the current format but could break out in the new one. Doing well will necessitate paying just as much attention to what is leaving the format as what is entering. Paying attention to what is leaving also signals what cards to sell off even if they aren’t rotating. When a Sphinx’s Revelation type card is about to rotate you’ll want to move your control staples ahead of that date, even if they aren’t leaving along with it.

Individuals that don’t keep up are going to get hammered twice as hard. Those players are going to lose huge chunks of value in their collection not just once a year, but multiple times. With two rotations, that’s twice as many opportunities to hold onto staples too long and lose hundreds of dollars in virtual value as your Voices plummet. Not only will these players take a hit by holding onto rotating cards too long, they’ll also take a hit when they hold onto cards that while still legal, cease being major players in the format. The greater amount of turnover in Standard means that more often cards will fall by the wayside. We only have to look as far back as Boros Reckoner to see a perfect example. It was a huge player in the INN/RTR Standard because of the Aristocrats and Blasphemous Act. The rotation of most of the Aristocrats deck, along with the rise of Mono-Black, crushed Reckoner’s price. If you weren’t paying attention you lost a lot of money holding onto those Reckoners. (Meanwhile Lingering Souls, a card that kept both Nightveil Specter and Desecration Demon from being relevant, left the format and opened the doors for those two to terrorize the skies.)

Whether you’re paying attention or not, it will be more difficult to avoid sinking excessive disposable income into the game. Gone are the days where you’ll be able to build a tier one list in the fall then make small changes to it over the course of a year or two. The constant set cycling will be forcing you to make large changes to your decklist frequently, or even abandon the deck altogether, which means investing more money into the game more often.

There’s also the issue that your cards won’t be legal for as long as they were before. If cards are legal in Standard for less time overall, it means you have to refresh your collection more often to stay in the game. Over the course of maybe three or four years you’ll have refreshed your entire Standard binder once more than you would under the old system. There’s money in these more rapid changes, but again, only for those doing their homework to stay ahead of things.

One exciting aspect of all of this is that sleepers are far more likely to burst onto the scene. A card printed in Journey into Nyx is forced to live it’s entire Standard life alongside Thoughtseize. If that card can’t perform in a world with Thoughtseize then it’s never getting a fair shake. In the new system, a card two sets away from Thoughtseize gets time to shine without having to deal with the hateful card. A card printed in Sweat is never getting away from a card printed in Blood, but a card from Tears will have a chance to operate without either of those two sets in Standard, which it previously wouldn’t have had.

Not only will cards have less permanent housemates, the formats won’t be solved as often or for as long either. Even if the next Mono-Black gets figured out relatively quickly, it will only be six months at most before a major change. This is in contrast to the year or more it can take to lose oppressive decks in the current system. With formats in greater flux more often, there will be far more opportunities for brewers to take the world by storm. The next Battlefield Thaumaturge is going to be positioned much better two years from now than he would be today.

Apprehension

At the end of the day I think we see a smoothing of card prices a little bit overall, although the highs and lows are going to come faster, harder, and more often. Hopefully the amount of product opened for the first set of a block should be a bit more in line with how much gets opened for the second set. The rapid change of formats will cause more cards to rise and fall than they do now.

Overall, the average price of cards should mostly stay the same. We should roughly see the same amount of unique cards printed in 2016 as we see printed in 2014. Standard may feel more expensive though, since most individual cards aren’t legal as long as they are today. The greater flux of Standard prices may push some people away who are scared of losing money to the cycle. The flip side of that is that fewer players will be frustrated with decks such as Mono-Blue dominating the format for long periods of time, and are more likely to want to play Standard since the metagame won’t be nearly as stale.

Reading Twitter it seems like the reception to this is quite favorable. Nearly everyone I’ve heard from has been a fan of the change. More new formats means more exciting Magic, which is good for all involved. Some are a little peeved that it will be more expensive to keep up with Standard, which is a fair frustration. Not everyone wants to play the stock market just to keep up with FNM.

For you and I it’s definitely a good change overall. More turnover and more change means more opportunities to profit. Having said that, It will be a bit more challenging now for sure. We’ll have shorter timetables to work with, and it will take a little while before we figure out exactly where the best places on the calendar will be to buy which cards. I don’t believe we’ll know fully how the markets will handle all of this until we get there and start seeing what happens. If there’s one thing we certainly know at this point though, it’s that the future of Magic just got a lot more exciting.

The Gilded Goblin

Let’s Play Spike or Hype II

August 25, 2014 Jared Yost

By: Jared Yost

It’s that time again folks! It seems we are finally moving away from the summer lulls. Speculators, vendors, and all those in between are starting to notice cards that they believe are undervalued. The evidence as usual is the upward trend in price and downward trend in inventory on TCGPlayer and other large vendor websites for certain cards. The question is though – is it hype or is it a spike?

I’ll identify some cards I have noticed so far and give my justification one way or another. We’ve seen this song and dance in the past so hopefully some cards will be much more clear cut than others.

I’ll also mention some other cards in the latter half of this article that people seem to be talking about online. These aren’t cards that are going to move significantly in price one way or another overnight but I thought I would address them since various sources have been discussing them.

Biggest Movers

Maralen of the Mornsong

On Friday of last week a buy out was executed on Maralen. Why, you ask? I’m asking myself the same question. I’m guessing this acquisition was based on the fact that she is a legendary creature from a small opened set, without a reprint in a supplementary product, and is the general of a pretty infamous Commander deck based on around Tendrils of Agony. That’s right folks, if you ever wanted to play ANT in Commander and be “that guy” then this general is perfect for you.

The problem is, I don’t think Commander players are very thrilled with losing on potentially turn two or three on a regular basis. Of course, if you have a very cutthroat Commander group then I can see this being the case – your metagame will just pack a bunch of targeted discard or other outlets. Yet to bring this kind of a deck to a Commander group that doesn’t play single person targeted discard or a ton of cheap counterspells? That’s just plain rude.

Another issue is that this card sees no competitive play. At all. Letting your opponent Grim Tutor during their upkeep seems bad. I know the argument “dies to removal” is a pretty bland argument against using a card but in this case it makes sense especially since you can tutor up any removal spell you want to get rid of it.

All in all, stay far away from non-foil versions of this card until the hype dies down. This isn’t going to be doing anything in Modern, at least not yet. They would have to print something similar to Mindlock Orb that is easy to synergize with Maralen.

Foils on the other hand could be profitable if you can get them for the right price. Being a cutthroat general is actually a bonus for competitive Commander staples since these players are the types of folks that like to foil out their decks. As of Friday, there were only two foils listed at $40 and $50 on TCGPlayer. I don’t think this is too far off from the real foil value and it can only gain over time. If you can find foils close to $30 I think that could be a pretty good deal.

Goblin Guide (and the GP Promo too!)

So much for Burn being a cheap option for Modern, eh? Guess it was good while it lasted. He has been slowly trending upwards over the past few months and as of last week is now hovering around $24.

One major factor for this increase is the Modern viability of the card. Burn is a deck many players favor for getting introduced to the Modern format. This way you can play Modern but also use the prize winnings to slowly work your way up to decks like Pod, Jund, and UWR control that have lots of shocklands and fetchlands and are decks that have better matchups against a wider range of the field.

However, I also think that the SCG Legacy Invitational in Somerset that is coming up at the end of August has something to do with the recent increase. I think that vendors are predicting that more players are going to want to start getting into Legacy especially with the Legacy GP coming up in November. Burn and and UR delver currently make up about 6% of the Legacy metagame. This is significant for a format like Legacy which tends to have 15+ solid Tier 1 decks that have a decent shot of taking down a tournament or making Top 8. Vendors noticed this and acted accordingly, buying up any copies of Goblin Guide they could since June and and reselling them at higher prices until now.

There were good reasons for this spike and in a way it could be predicted based on the trend from the previous few months if you happened to notice it. I’m not sure if it was on player’s radars though because there is also a GP promo (which also spiked) and Goblin Guide was reprinted in a Mirrodin Besieged event deck with two copies per deck! There are plenty of copies out there but demand has now come to outpace supply. This card has corrected in price and will not be moving without another reprint for some time.

Goblin Rabblemaster

Speaking of goblins, at Pro Tour M15 Rabblemaster was the talk of the town. It spurned enough interest from players and vendors alike to make it jump from around $1 retail to $4 retail where is still hovers on TCGPlayer.

I think there is both hype and demand factors for the spike. He didn’t get anyone into the Top 8 of the Pro Tour but it did get two people into the Top 32. Clearly there is potential in him being played in aggressive red decks upon rotation of Return to Ravnica block. The question now is can it stay at $4 or possibly even go higher in the fall? I’m not sure if the buy in now is going to enable you to make any significant profits in the future. He would need to go up to $8+ in the future to see any type of net profit and I’m not willing to take that risk. Pick them up if you plan to play them however don’t expect to make killer profits off this guy at $4.

Only if his price drops down going into September to $2 or lower would I look to buy in. I think he will see a fair amount of play after rotation. Just keep in mind that the shelf life is usually pretty short on these highly aggressive cards so I would look to get out once the control decks become established.

Dack Fayden FOIL

While the non-foil versions of Dack have dropped significantly since the release of Conspiracy, from the crazy preorder prices of $50+ to the now average $19 on TCGPlayer, his foil version on the other hand is a completely different story. MTGPrice is still lagging a bit on the new foil price with no clear listings from any of the vendors so I will provide this screenshot from TCGPlayer.

Only three foil listings at $350 and $450 respectively! That is a huge jump in foil price in only just a few months from the Conspiracy set release. For a while, you could have gotten yourself a nice shiny Dack for around $130. Looks like that turned out to be a bargain.

Let’s check out eBay completed listings to make sure I’m not missing anything:

A Japanese foil Dack sold for $500 (to be expected) but other than this outlier the rest have been ending around the $165-$175 range on average. Once lucky guy got one for $140. Even though these are completed listings, many of the BIN’s on eBay are being listed at $350+. I don’t believe there was a particular run on foil Dack and that this is actual demand yet there is still some hype to the price.

He has real eternal format playability especially in Vintage where foiling out your deck is the norm for many players. He hasn’t made an impact in Legacy yet the potential is always there. He is a Cube instaclude and a Commander powerhouse. He is even more relevant in Commander now that Wizards is pushing Planeswalkers as generals. Eventually, enough people will house rule walkers as generals and Dack would make a sweet general. Having a foil Dack as your general is also highly desirable for many Commander players.

Now that the price has reached such lofty heights I don’t think it is going to move all that much. I really don’t know what the effect of more Conspiracy being opened is going to have on his foil – I was clearly wrong in my Conspiracy foil analysis* because the demand for foil copies is there and it is apparently very strong for those that want him now without having to bid on eBay. However, should his foil be worth almost as much as a Moat? Probably not.

If you can negotiate a good price on a foil I would pick it up but otherwise don’t buy into the current hype. I think there is volatility to the foil price because players won’t be happy seeing his foil has gone over $300 retail and this could force vendors to trend the price downward. He also has a good chance of seeing a judge foil printing once Wizards catches wind of the price, which in turn will increase the amount of foil copies on the market. These two factors make me think this new price is somewhat driven by hype and a low market supply. Going forward, I’m still going to keep in mind that there is justification for a higher price than before the spike (~$130) yet the current price feels too high to me.

*Not that this absolves me however I provided my comments on foil Dack before the C15 decks were revealed featuring Teferi as a planeswalker general. This could be another huge factor driving the foil price in addition to the other factors I mentioned.

Squelch

This card has spiked due to Modern demand. It has gone from around $0.30 to $3.50. Do not buy in at this point, there is no profit to be made because it will be hard for this card to sustain a price of $7 or higher for a significant length of time without being included in more decks than it is currently featured in if you do buy at $3-$4. There is also the potential reprint to consider, though the card is so odd they would have to fit it into a MM2 set or similar. If you have any copies you will be able to trade them well though price isn’t moving from $3.50 for quite some time.

Great Whale

Is this the cheap man’s Palinchron? It’s gone from bulk status to $3 over the past two weeks or so. I think for $6 more you could have yourself a nice Palinchron and not have to worry about using other cards outside of Caged Sun (or similar) in order to generate infinite mana.

I don’t really see a reason why this card is now $3. It’s played in… Commander, maybe? It is on the reserve list so there is that. Other than these two factors, which aren’t all that convincing, there isn’t a ton going for this card. Stay away, far away at this point.

Other Cards

I’ve also thought about the prices of some other cards and where they are going in the future. I’m taking into account Standard cards, regularly played eternal cards that will experience reprints, and casual favorites.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver

Ashiok has been slowly trending upwards since his low of $5. This is a casual favorite that seems to sell well and retain a decent price. If you can grab any copies from $7-$8 trade I don’t think you can go wrong. He will always command decent casual appeal for being a mill walker and he could also see Standard play in the future.

Keranos, God of Storms

Many eternal players in Modern and Legacy seem to be including him in lists for UWR in Modern and UWr Miracles in Legacy. I don’t think you can go wrong with foil copies here as they stand to gain the most in the long run. Non-foils could also be a good target if you can trade for them at $6-$7 or pick them up for $5 cash.

Griselbrand & Lightning Helix

Both Griselbrand and Lightning Helix have had reprints announced. Griselbrand is scheduled to be the next GP Promo and Lightning Helix is being reprinted in the next duel deck Speed vs. Cunning.

Griselbrand has already seen a price slump due to this announcement and I unfortunately don’t think his price is going to go anywhere in a while. Sneak and Show seems to be a Legacy deck that comes and goes these days so I don’t think you can reliably rely on the deck to influence his price much at this point (unless it wins the Legacy GP in November). The buy in price is too high and the gains won’t be that significant over the next several months.

Lightning Helix on the other hand isn’t really going to be changing price much, if it all. Is is a very popular uncommon and is used quite heavily in Modern, much more than Griselbrand is used in Legacy. Don’t expect a price drop but also don’t look to acquire more. This reprint is only going to stabilize the current price.

Command Tower

Command Tower is around $1 now. It used to be $5 before the C14 reprint yet now that we have mono colored Commander decks coming up Command Tower will not be seeing a reprint this year. $1 is a good buy in price, cash or trade – it will never go below a $1 due to casual appeal and I believe it can only go up from here over the next year. This is definitely a card that needs to be offloaded at the opportune moment since the imminent reprint here is pretty obvious for future Commander products. Next spring though? Wouldn’t be surprised if this was $2 or more. A risk here is that they might be very hard to move unless your area has players that like to build multiple Commander decks.

Sands of Delirium

I’ve been seeing some chatter about this card online and it centers around the casual appeal of the card. This card is the upgraded version of Millstone because the more mana you have the more you can mill your opponent. I honestly think that Ashiok is a much better card and I would be hard pressed to buy Sands over Consuming Aberration. However, for $0.50 it seems like a pretty low buy in point. Could this break $2 or $3? It’s from a core set, which means there are fewer copies of it out there then rares from bigger sets like Return to Ravnica or Theros. If you can get these as bulk throw in’s for trades I would certainly consider it. I would say the only reason Millstone is a bulk rare now is because they reprinted it as an uncommon in M14. Before that, I was seeing Millstone sold for $0.50 with regularity. Sands of Delirium seems like a fine pick up if you can get them for $0.50 or cheaper for future gains.

Uncategorized

Weekend Update for 8/23/14

August 23, 2014 Jim Marsh 1 Comment

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Woodfall Primus (Modern Masters)
From $3.63 to $4.16 (14.60%)

This casual monster is difficult to deal with and takes out multiple problematic noncreature permanents.

It is a favorite in casual and commander decks.

The price tanked when it was reprinted in Modern Masters last year but has been slowly recuperating. I expect these to keep climbing until they get back to around $6.

9. Amulet of Vigor (Worldwake)
From $3.63 to $4.16 (14.60%)

Amulet of Vigor came out of nowhere earlier this year to create a quirky but intriguing fringe deck.

It had been a bulk rare for years but a few prominent displays on camera and the genie is out of the bottle.

Be warned that the deck can be difficult to pilot and inconsistent but it is here to stay. I expect Amulet of Vigor to continue to grow slowly but steadily until it starts getting real results or is reprinted.

You can still pick these up for as little as $2.33 and sell them for as much as $2.51 or just sit on them until they hit $5.

8. Chandra, the Firebrand (M13)
From $3.64 to $4.31 (18.41%)

Chandra, the Firebrand has some casual appeal. She is used in Commander and Cubes on occasion.

She has seen two printings in core sets. She never really saw any competitive play while she was in standard and nothing to speak of in eternal formats.

I do not see any real justification for the price adjustment. I would trade these away for $4 while you can.

7. Underground River (10^th Edition)
From $3.24 to $3.93 (21.30%)

Enemy painlands have been getting a lot of attention lately with their standard reappearance.

Allied painlands are still relatively cheap pick ups. Underground River is played in Modern UB Faeries. If the deck gets any traction then these will jump.

You can currently buy the 6^th Edition copies for as little as $0.99 and sell them for as much as $1.25.

6. Flames of the Blood Hand (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $4.54 to $5.63 (24.01%)

Flames of the Blood Hand is played in Modern Burn and Red Deck Wins.

It is a powerful card out of the sideboard to shut down life gain and keep the deck’s game plan on track. I could not find any recent successes to explain the bump but I find it interesting that the price is approaching the $5.82 that the Premium Fire and Lightning Deck copy goes for.

I would try to snag a few copies of the Fire and Lightning versions before the price adjusts.

5. Orzhov Pontiff (Guildpact)
From $4.87 to $6.19 (27.10%)

Even though Modern Melira Pod only runs a single copy Orzhov Pontiff has been benefiting from Top 8 placements.

This is a bit higher than I would expect to see for a card that is only played as a singleton even if it is in one of the better positioned decks in the metagame.

I would start looking to trade these away.

4. All Is Dust (Rise of the Eldrazi)
From $16.89 to $21.89 (29.72%)

All Is Dust is a colorless sweeper that you can build around. It can get around Regeneration and Indestructibility.

It is a popular inclusion in Commander and Cubes. It is also used in some competitive decks.

Modern uses it in Tron variants and has even seen some Top 8 success with it. Legacy can use it in MUD to get rid of even the toughest True-Name Nemesis.

It somehow was not included in From the Vault: Annihilation so it is safe from reprint for a while.

I would pick up the GP Promo version. It is actually cheaper at $14.89.

3. Legion Loyalist (Gatecrash)
From $3.84 to $4.99 (29.95%)

Legion Loyalist is enjoying a lot of attention in its last few weeks in Standard.

It is in Rabble Red, Boss Sligh and Red Deck Wins variants.

The problem is that is it about to become a bulk rare.

Get out now. The sudden demand has made this a lot easier to buylist to vendors that are trying to fill orders. You can currently buylist these for $2.80 and $5 for the foils.

2. Xenagos, the Reveler (Theros)
From $8.26 to $12.86 (55.69%)

Xenagos, the Reveler was the talk of the town last week. Rabble Red is good for a budget deck but when you want results this is the planeswalker we come to.

He can give you a ritual to ramp into larger threats or give you an unlimited supply of Goblin Guides. It makes the Raging Goblins that Goblin Rabblemaster spits out look anemic.

Although Xenagos requires two colors of mana he still shows up in a surprising variety of Top 8 decks. He is played in Jund Walkers, Jund Monsters, GR devotion and Brave Naya.

He will probably be finding a home in Temur (RUG) decks soon. I really like him as a pick up if you can still find him under $10. I could see him getting to $20 or more after rotation.

1. Squelch (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $2.04 to $3.32 (62.75%)

What happened to Squelch? You could still find these for a dollar just a week or two ago.

Mono U Tron runs a pair in the sideboard. It is an appealing deck because it is relatively cheap. You only need a single copy of the expensive cards and even the play set of Remand is lot cheaper thanks to Jace vs. Vraska.

This is the closest we get to Stifle in Modern which comes in handy when someone is trying to crack a fetchland or activate Birthing Pod.

That being said how much higher can Squelch get? There are only so many uncommons that command $4 and they are casual or competitive all stars. This is certainly not on the same level as Tectonic Edge or Spell Snare.

I would unload these while you can. Hopefully you stocked up the past few weeks I have been mentioning it. Now it is pay day.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Eight-and-a-Half-Tails (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $7.58 to $6.71 (-11.48%)

Eight-and-a-Half-Tails has a name and creature type that makes it very difficult to reprint outside of a supplementary product.

He is a white Cancel on a stick which is helpful for protecting your permanents or even pushing through late game damage past your opponents defense.

It is played in modern Death and Taxes and works very well with the Aether Vials the deck packs.

Kamigawa was a long time ago and all indications are that we are not going back any time soon. Supply is low and not going anywhere.

I like these as long term holds. They will continue to grow in value. At the very least it is a unique white commander that offers abilities that other commanders in the color are unlikely to replicate.

4. Endless Horizons (Eventide)
From $6.90 to $6.00 (-13.04%)

Endless Horizons is used in some commander decks and in modern Mono-White Prison as a singleton.

The effect is interesting but has some inherent risks.

It used to be $2 at the beginning of the year. Overnight it was bought out and vendors adjusted the prices accordingly. It has not really earned its place.

This card is going to keep going down until it hits the $3 to $4 range and sit there. I would trade these away while you can.

3. Demigod of Revenge (Modern Masters)
From $3.55 to $3.07 (-13.52%)

Demigod of Revenge was a victim of Modern Masters. It has been outclassed in terms of reanimation targets and does not even get a place in most Dredgevine Decks.

It is still a great casual card and usually gets traded in play sets but it was a prerelease promo and now it has been reprinted without any additional demand.

I think you will soon be able to pick up your play set for under $10. Get out.

2. Nomad Mythmaker (10^th Edition)
From $2.61 to $2.19 (-16.09%)

I keep forgetting this card exists. That is because even in decks it should be good in it is slow and clunky. How many auras are worth reanimating?

I would rather have Sovereigns of Lost Alara or Bruna, Light of Alabaster for my $2 aura enabler.

Only the most casual of aura decks is looking at this card. That does not mean that is useless to us.

You can still buy them for as little as $1.20 and sell them for $1.52.

Even better the Judgment foil can be purchased for $1.36 and sold for $2.00.

1. Banishing Light (Journey into Nyx)
From $3.06 to $2.56 (-16.34%)

Banishing Light is going to be a constant presence in standard for at least the next year. It has been used in Orzhov Midrange, Azorius Control, Selesnya Aggro and even Boros Burn decks.

It deals with any problems you have and is an easy splash.

However this is going to be reprinted in core sets for a long time to come.

Modern already has Oblivion Ring and Detention Sphere. It does not need Banishing Light as well.

Keep a play set to for your standard decks but I would buylist the rest for $1.28 while you can. Or trade them for cheap gods like Ephara, Karametra and Kruphix.

Casual Fridays

Commander 2014 Preparation

August 22, 2014 Cliff Daigle 2 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Yes, I’m thinking a lot about a set of decks that aren’t going to be available until November.

I’m of two minds about this set.

From a playing and flavor perspective, I’m stoked beyond words. I’m hoping to see Teferi, Serra, Freyalise, Jaya Ballard, and Leshrac as overpowered Planeswalkers and eventual judge foils. (There’s going to have to be a foil version somehow. They know that we want a foil to be our Commander!)

From a financial standpoint, I don’t think there will be a lot of immediate opportunity here. The first Commander set was put together and printed when the player base was significantly smaller, and while sealed product is at a premium, there aren’t many standalone stars.

Wizards has demonstrated this past year that if the preconstructed decks are bought in disproportionate amounts, then they will print disproportionate amounts. True-Name Nemesis is the case study. It started out at $50, as befits a powerful blue creature in Legacy in a limited printing. It was impacting the sale of Commander decks, as Mind Seize couldn’t stay on shelves.

The company turned around and started printing and sending out two Mind Seize per case instead of just one, and the demand appears to have been met, as TNN is down to $25, a price at which it’s not cost-effective to hunt for the deck.

The decks still carry a lot of value in the singles, but without the big-ticket item to immediately sell via buylist (and the rest of the deck doesn’t buylist well) things are in a reasonable state.

The reprinting policy is extremely relevant to us. If one of the five mono-color decks blows up this winter, the price will not hold. There’s a chance that if True-Name Nemesis isn’t reprinted, it might creep up again (more on that in a second) but the initial demand was met through adding additional supply.

Here is the behavior you’ll need to have for the five decks in November: Buy it soon, sell it fast, don’t try to make too much for too long.

The decks being mono-color offers the opportunity for many reprints of cards that could use it. I would expect a combination of very old and semi-old cards to go with the brand-new ones. I think that Wizards will use these products as a way to increase supply of some cards. If these cards are reprinted, there will be a drop in value, much like with the Commander 2013 cards.

In some cases, the price of a card will be unaffected by a reprint, or scarcity will keep a higher price. Hua Tuo, Honored Physician is an example. Hua Tao did not have a high price due to the ability, but the scarcity of the set. The same card in Commander 2013 is worth a dollar, and the original lost about $40 in value.

In case I haven’t made it clear: I don’t think there is much long-term value to be gained by trading or buying into expensive cards that can be reprinted in the next year. The combination of MM2 in May and these Commander decks creates too much uncertainty for my taste. Better to focus speculation energy and money on Standard cards. I mentioned a few reprint candidates two weeks ago, and here are some more. If you have any of these in quantity, I strongly urge you to cash them out or trade them away.

Linvala, Keeper of Silence – This angel is around $50, and is overdue for a reprint. Her ability is very relevant in keeping down the Splinter Twin decks of Modern, and is also great in dealing with the many utility abilities of Commander. This angel and Avacyn are locks in my mind to be in this set or Modern Masters 2. There’s a good chance that this deck has a tribal Angel feel, which would open up cards like Akroma, Angel of Wrath or Iona, Shield of Emeria as well.

Aven Mindcensor – One of the more expensive uncommons in Modern, a fresh injection of copies would tank the price by half or more.

Bloodghast – This card would work exceptionally well with the spoiled Ghoulcaller Gisa, with repeated sacrifices. I can see Gravecrawler being an easy include for the same reason.

Death Baron – Gisa’s tokens are Zombies. Making them better and deadly is very strong.

Nirkana Revenant – In an EDH deck with around 30 swamps, this is just ridiculous. Doubling mana is a favorite thing in casual formats, and using that mana immediately is a real beating.

Phyrexian Obliterator – It increased in price twice, is more than $35, and will never be easier to cast than in a mono-black deck.

Consecrated Sphinx – In a multiplayer game, this is capable of taking over. An opponent getting a copy means that two players can draw their entire deck!

Kira, Great Glass-Spinner – I like the benefit and drawback to this ability. You’ll have to pay twice to equip something, or use a different ability.

Spell Crumple – In case you weren’t aware, this is a $6 uncommon that was a two-of in one of the original Commander 2011 decks. A reprint will cause this price to plummet.

Azusa, Lost but Seeking – Yup, she’s more than $20. Watch out, because it’ll go much, much lower when she’s printed again.

Craterhoof Behemoth – A choice finisher in token or swarm decks, this seems like a for-sure include in the mono-green deck.

Oracle of Mul Daya – Oracle’s price was never this high when she was in Standard. Look at what this offers, and then Courser of Kruphix. Adding life and toughness while lowering mana cost does a lot for the card!

Regal Force – Oh, it feels good resolving this and drawing ten or more cards. It’s appropriately expensive.

Vigor – I realize that this is a card that dies to targeted and mass removal, but it’s really awesome until it gets killed. It has a price that reflects how popular it is despite being so easy to kill.

Dragonmaster Outcast – Oh, I hope this is in Khans of Tarkir block. If not, this and Kargan Dragonlord are strong candidates for the mono-red Commander deck.

Magus of the Moon – A Modern card that can be its own answer (my Hallowed Fountain can now cast Lightning Bolt!) this represents a very strong ability, and a card that would go lower when reprinted.

I don’t think that all of these are going to be in Commander 2014. I think there’s a good chance of them being printed in that set (or Modern Masters 2) and these are cards I don’t want to have in stock when their price tanks.

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