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Weekend Update for 5/17/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Shirei, Shizo’s Caretaker
$2.82 to $3.20 (13.5%)

Lately the Magic Finance community has been going bananas for Commanders. The legendary creatures from Commander and Planechase decks have been making their rounds.

It is possible that now interesting legends from Kamigawa are getting some attention.

Shirei has been a pet favorite card of mine for a while. The possibilities of getting back small creatures like Bone Shredder or Fume Spitter over and over again are a lot of fun.

It is exactly the kind of challenge Commander players love to find and build around.

However there is a new 1 power black creature in town. Shadowborn Apostle turns this commander from interesting to degenerate.

Imagine getting a new beefy demon every single turn.

Shirei makes paying upkeep costs like Abhorrent Overlord’s or Xathrid Demon’s into a value proposition.

Lord of the Void and Rune-Scarred Demon are all cheap and fun to play with.

He only has one printing and given his name he will be tough to reprint outside of supplemental products.

I agree that his time has come. I expect him to continue to climb.

9. Cephalid Coliseum (From the Vault: Realms)
$2.34 to $2.68 (14.5%)

Cephalid Coliseum plays in Legacy Dredge. It does fantastic things in that deck like stocking your hand and graveyard at a reasonable price.

The problem is that is it an uncommon from Odyssey and it was reprinted in From the Vault: Realms.

It was nearly $4 before dipping back down to $2. It looks like it is on its way back up. You should be able to pick up a play set fairly cheaply and sit on them.

8. Tendo Ice Bridge
$3.50 to $4.05 (15.7%)

Tendo Ice Bridge comes into play untapped and provides you with any color that you want.

The drawback is that it can only do this once.

The Modern Amulet of Vigor deck has found a way around this. It runs so many Ravnica bouncelands that it can rebuy the charge counter over and over again. Azusa, Lost but Seeking even helps you replay and reuse the same bridge on the same turn.

It is a rare from Betrayers of Kamigawa so there is not a large supply. The deck uses three of them.

The buy in is cheap and I do not believe it is done growing. The deck is still on the fringe but it has seen some 3-1s on MODO Modern dailies. I would trade for any that you see.

7. Oubliette
$7.97 to $9.35 (17.3%)

This common comes to us all the way from Arabian Nights.

It is a black Oblivion Ring that returns auras and counters. That makes it a template that Wizards will never want to reprint again. It is also in a color that no longer gets this effect.

Why exile a creature when you can Murder them for the exact same price?

It is not on the reserved list but it might as well be. I don’t think we will ever see any more copies of this card in existence.

It is used in Mono-Black Control Pauper decks but the Pauper format.

Unfortunately Pauper is not really a supported format in paper Magic.

In Commander and Cubes it gives black an ability that cannot be found on other cards unless you look at creatures like Faceless Butcher.

The past few months have seen it go from $2 to $4 to $14. It went back down to $7 and is now on the rise again. I think this is premature.

I would move these.

6. Chandra Nalaar (Duel Decks: Chandra versus Jace)
$7.51 to $8.99 (19.7%)

Chandra Nalaar is one of the Lorwyn five. As one of the original planeswalkers she will always have some casual appeal.

She also makes some appearances on the competitive front.

There is a Modern Boros Lockdown deck that ties up the opponent’s board with Ghostly Prison and Ensnaring Bridge.

Chandra Nalaar can pick off small creatures or creates a clock for the opponent.

The big finisher is Assemble the Legion.

Turn after turn an army of 1/1 soldiers with haste provide chump blockers and eventually an overwhelming offense.

Chandra is used as a 2 of in the deck.

It is notable that this price is for the Duel Deck: Chandra versus Jace version. It has unique artwork and was only found in limited supplies.

I don’t see her rising in price too much more. She has already been printed four times and she could theoretically be reprinted in any core set that needed her.

5. Orzhov Pontiff
$2.07 to $2.48 (19.8%)

Orzhov Pontiff is a rare from Guildpact. It has not been reprinted and its flavor makes it difficult to reprint outside of Return to Return to Ravnica or a supplemental product.

I think even those are long shots as Wizards has expressed regret with the Haunt mechanic.

It does some wonderful work in Melira Pod acting as removal and additional value when you sacrifice creatures.

It is only played as a one of in the deck. This has helped push the card from bulk rare to $2.50.

Melira Pod is very strong in the metagame but does not dominate which will help it avoid the ban hammer.

In the most recent GP in Minneapolis there were two Melira Pod decks in the Top 8 and a total of five in the Top 16.

So long as the deck continues to show such strong results I expect this card to continue to grow in value.

4. Temple of Malady
$6.07 to $7.49 (23.4%)

The scrylands from Journey Into Nyx will have the lowest supply of any of the scrylands. Journey is a third set so far less will be opened in drafts and sealed pools.

Drafters will also be treated to Conspiracy in a couple weeks. It will be interesting to see how this effects Theros block drafts.

Even before Journey the Golgari Dredge deck has been turning heads as a fun alternative to Esper Control or variations on Blue Devotion.

In block Temple of Malady is also played in BUG Control and Jund.

This will see the highest prices of any of the scrylands.

The big question is what dual lands will be available in M15 or the fall set. I see the potential for these to continue to grow to $10 or to fall back down to around $5.

I think growth is more likely. I would happily trade for them but don’t go crazy. A couple play sets should do you.

3. Necropotence
$6.64 to $8.53 (28.5%)

Vintage Masters.

Vintage Masters is the talk of the town. Magic Online will have a draftable set that allows them to play with broken cards that banned in every format but Vintage and casual kitchen tops.

More people will get to experience playing with this card. It is difficult to reprint. Wizards of the Coast has banned this in Legacy so it goes without saying that they do not want to see this in Modern or Standard.

Planechase, Archenemy and Commander products are all usually multicolor decks that would not play well with the greedy mana cost that Necropotence demands.

It has already been printed in a From the Vaults product so I don’t think any more will appear until they are announced as a promo.

This is a solid investment that I believe will continue to rise in the short and long term. Vintage Masters will not be redeemable but it will increase interest.

I would trade for them.

2. Shivan Reef
$5.52 to $7.99 (44.8%)

Shivan Reef is used in Modern Izzet decks like Storm or Kiki Twin. It helps fix mana without losing tempo.

The UR Storm deck has been getting 3-1s on Modern MODO dailies and has been piloted by pros like Jon Finkel.

The deck runs three Reefs to help fix mana but they are not essential to the deck. Steam Vents, Cascade Bluffs and Scalding Tarns all work to help the mana flow.

A deck like Storm requires finesse and skill to pilot. A lot of people are trying to build it because it is relatively light on the budget and powerful.

I think that this card will continue to increase in value slowly but with three printings I think it will have difficulty getting much higher than ten dollars.

1. Urza’s Miter
$2.73 to $4.87 (78.4%)

Urza’s Miter is a rare from Antiquities and is on the reserved list.

There will never be any more copies of the Miter than there currently are.

It is not that powerful or interesting so I don’t think the Magic world at large would miss it if every copy in existence suddenly disappeared. It is lower in power level than Viridian Revel which does not require three mana for every activation.

It looks at your artifacts but cannot benefit you if you sacrificed the artifact.

It is clunky and tough to build around.

It has seen a sudden surge in popularity. It jumped from $2.50 to $4 and right back down to $2.50. It is currently making its way back to $5.

There is no real justification for this outside of someone buying the cheap copies to artificially raise the price. This is still a bad spec.

That does not mean that there is no opportunity here. If anyone has one they are probably not aware of the inexplicable price increase.

One store on MTGPrice has a buylist of $2.51 on it.

You could trade this straight for cash. I would do so before this vendor corrects its buylist.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Lightning Bolt (Magic Players Reward Card)
$55.95 to $49.48 (-11.6%)

This just baffles me. There has never been a format where this card was legal and it was not one of the best removal spells played. It is always seen as a play set for the sole reason that you cannot play forty of them in your deck.

This card belongs in almost every Modern and Legacy deck that has access to red mana. It belongs in every Cube and many casual decks.

I don’t need to defend Lightning Bolt. I just need to point out that this is probably the cheapest you will see this premium version.

4. Damia, Sage of Stone
$12.55 to $11.00 (-12.4%)

I mentioned before that everyone has been going crazy for Commanders.

She had been steadily growing from $4 to $7 when people starting noticing generals disappearing. There were several buyouts and she got all the way to $14 before everyone decided she was good but maybe not that good.

She has taken a little dive but I expect her to level out around $10 and continue slowly growing. I would watch for the opportunity to grab her when she does.

She even sees play in BUG Nic Fit in Legacy. The deck has not posted serious results but if someone can find a way to use it then expect her to shoot up along with the rest of the deck.

Reviewing the deck made me realize that Thragtusk is now sitting at under $2.50. I think that is a steal. I believe his price will go up if he gets reprinted in a core set and everyone needs their play sets to play with again.

I just hope they do not reprint Restoration Angel in that Standard environment.

3. Ephara, God of the Polis
$5.77 to $5.05 (-12.5%)

The gods have lost some of their luster. I would use this as a chance to get them. Once Return to Ravnica rotates there will be a shakeup in decks. A card that can guarantee card advantage will be well positioned.

The casual and commander crowds will make sure that these insanely efficient creatures never dip down too low. I look at Karametra as the floor. I don’t think any god should ever be less than $3. I am waiting for something in Huey or M15 to come out that will make her outstanding.

Ephara actually sees play in competitive Standard decks so she should not get lower than $5. If you want to play with her get in now.

2. Domri Rade
$24.29 to $20.85 (-14.2%)

Standard is diversifying. Domri Rade is being used in variants on Jund, Naya and Gruul decks.

It is also being used in Modern in Zoo.

It is a shame that all of those decks are failing to make impressive results.

His price is slipping. You can even find him for almost $15 in some locations.

I would trade mine away unless you want to play with him. The fact that he is used in Modern means his price won’t drop too much come rotation, but it will be a bumpy ride until then.

Liquidate now and pick it up right after rotation if you want to use him in Modern.

1. Lotus Petal (From the Vault: Exiled)
$33.91 to $27.48 (-18.7%)

I still love this card. It is used in a number of Legacy decks that are getting results. If we just look at the most recent SCG Open we see the following decks that feature three to four Petals.

ANT and Imperial Painter were both in the Top 8.

Belcher represented two spots in the Top 16.

Any way you slice it a quarter of the decks that were placing ran almost the full compliment of the artifact.

There is no way it stays this low for too much longer.

Casual Fridays

Judge Foils I’d Like to See

By: Cliff Daigle

With the recent spoiling of some special-edition judge foils, it became clear to me that there are more judge foils that need to be released.

I leave it to others to speculate on the price of the promo Force of Will (ALL THE DOLLARS) and instead I’m thinking of my experiences buying foils that are given out in judge packs at high-level events for a while. Judge foils usually follow a pattern of being at a very high price on their release, and that price slowly comes down over the duration of the card being given out.

For example, a friend of mine bought a Xiahou Dun, the One-Eyed when it was first printed as a promo for the price of $120. Eight months later, it could be had for $60.

First of all, two cycles:

Sword of War and Peace & Sword of Body and Mind (old frame) – We’ve gotten three of the five swords in the old frame, and Wizards knows we like our cycles. Expect these as a when, not an if. WaP and BaM are the weakest of the Swords, and would probably end up in the $30 range. 

The other Praetors in Phyrexian – Again, this is a cycle begging to be printed. The Phyrexian Elesh Norn is sick, and I’d love to have this same effect applied to the other four colors. Since the other four see less play and are arguably weaker, their prices will be low too, probably down to $20.

Kozilek, Butcher of Truth – There are three Legendary Eldrazi, and Ulamog and Emrakul have each had a special edition. Set foil Kozilek is surprisingly expensive, and the judge foil wouldn’t make it any lower than $60, I’d say.

Iona, Shield of Emeria – As a reanimation target, Iona is super-popular for her ability to shut out an entire color. She’s popular in Cubes for this reason, and there are polite disagreements about her use in EDH, when a reanimation/Kaalia/Bribery can put her in play early and lock out some players. A judge version of her would be around $30 once the initial demand was met.

Mana Drain – If Force can finally make it, this is the other one that Eternal players are eager for. It’s enormously powerful, a card that hearkens back to the days when counterspells we not only undercosted, they gave significant advantages. I suspect that this would be a limited edition as Force is said to be, and therefore I’ll say the price here would be around $600.

Vigor – This would be an attempt to goose the supply of Vigor for casual players. It’s a really great effect for a wide range of decks and players, something I try to put in as many decks as I can. It dates back to right before Magic started to explode, and would be welcome in lots of formats. It’s never seen much Constructed play, so I’d expect these foils to be around $25.

Yavimaya Elder – Hear me out. This is a card that isn’t worth much in nonfoil, but there’s only been one foil printing. This could use the superior Matt Cavotta art, and be a very pretty upgrade in nearly every green deck ever. It would carry a price around $15-$20, and I would be delighted to pick those up.

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed – This is a card that frankly people in casual formats don’t play enough. It’s not only Wrath insurance, you’ll also get a re-use of all the sweet enters-the-battlefield effects on the creatures you play with anyway! this would not be a high-value card, but it would be a lot of fun. $15.

Sensei’s Divining Top – It was a mainstay of so many decks that it’s banned in Modern due to sheer logistics. It’s an old uncommon, it was in FTV: Exiled, and it doesn’t matter because so many decks like having this effect. Judge foils on this would never be below $50.

I imagine that I left out some fun ones. (Remember, judge foils can no longer be from the reserved list, despite the presence of Survival of the Fittest and Thawing Glaciers promos) and I’d like to hear what you want to have. I’m excited that Terese Nielsen’s Hanna, Ship’s Navigator will be available, and more Commander-only cards are sure to be printed too! Let me know what should be here, in the comments or on Twitter @WordOfCommander

Think Twice

Knowledge as Power

By: Camden Clark

As financiers, we gain the power that we have from communication.

Communication is social media.

Communication is Twitch streams.

Communication is talking to Magic players like you and me.

But above all, communication provides you with the information to make wise decisions.

Kind of like organization, communication is an abstract concept in Magic finance. We all have personal expectations for what it means and how we utilize it. However, most of us fail to see deeper. We fail to analyze whether the information we are gathering is useful and where it is produced from. Even more dangerous is receiving information and archive it but never use it.

What does this even mean?

It means we have to analyze the sources of our information.

The first level (and the most basic) is the finance level.

Twitter – Finance

If you are not on Twitter, sign up for an account now. It is almost no hassle to install on your smartphone and just follow the people who are very established and know what they are doing.

Chas Andres
Corbin
Sigmund
Jason
Travis
Also you can follow me – http://twitter.com/CamdenClarkMTG

The #mtgfinance hashtag is also an extremely valuable source of information. It can give you an ear to the ground on how people in the finance community are feeling. There are few other places where you can get random blips like this that you may have not been aware of.

I use Twitter because it is an easy and time-efficient way to interact in the MTGFinance community. There are millions of people who have accounts on this website for a reason. It provides really easy blurbs from people that are well respected.

Twitter is good for what it is but there are some inherent limitations. The 140 character limit prevents extended analysis of picks. Moreover, most of the information is not very relevant to speculation. There are simply so many people here that it becomes hard to distill valuable content from just some guy on his iPhone. Another issue with Twitter is the community centric aspect. With so many people posting it is difficult to have one tweet to have a major effect.

My advice for using Twitter is as follows: watch, but take everything with a grain of salt. It is a fun and easy way to keep an ear to the ground but following the mtgfinance people exclusively is dangerous.

Twitter – Players

The Twitter Magic community is quite similar to the Magic finance community. There are major moguls who constantly post about their records at major tournaments and talk about specific cards and decks.

There is even more information than in the Magic finance community so it becomes hard to discern what is useful and what is not. Most posts from ordinary people should have no bearing on your financial decisions or learning. In contrast, the tweets from professional players and major people in the community should have a major impact on how you think about certain cards.

A couple of pitfalls to avoid is that pros sometimes joke about certain cards or decks. There are also some professional players who tweet nothing but their records at a tournament and provide little value for finance.

/r/mtgfinance

This subreddit has a lot of potential. Recently, the community became a dung-throwing festival where posters accused the moderators of being in cahoots with content writers on a few different sites. However, I find these accusations to be untrue and most of the community feels the same way. It seemed to be a very vocal minority who believed that /r/mtgfinance was only trying to shill certain websites.

Nevertheless, after that situation the subreddit picked up steam again and seems to be back in working order.

The good things about Reddit are similar and magnified. The voting system allows content that the community feels is valuable to get more airtime while content that is not so good gets voted down. Everything in this subreddit is submitted by community members and it is extremely transparent who is submitting the content and what they hope to achieve. Discussion is amplified because each post usually gets at least three commenters who have good and unlimited analysis.

The downfall of Reddit lies in the voting system as well. Opinions outside the majority may get voted down in controversial topics, resulting in certain people’s thoughts being given little visibility. However, adopting a holistic view on reading comments and even reading those that have been downvoted will dissuade this. Another issue with this community lies in the “pump and dump” mentality of many of its users. They often post a discussion or “speculation” thread and attempt to create a buyout for the card they open a discussion post for.

The best way to use this community is similar to Twitter. It is a valuable source of legitimate discussion and can foster very good debates. The posting system creates a pseudo-filter to get rid of garbage content. Still, take everything with a grain of salt and make sure that you are making educated decisions by doing your own research

Moreover, use Reddit to ask questions and create decent dialogue. That is where you can get the most value out of this subreddit. People there have experience and you can get a variety of opinions on whatever you post. I highly recommend utilizing this subreddit not only for reading but also contributing. You will learn a lot.

/r/spikes

The subreddit for people who grind PTQs is also a great resource for determining good investments. These are the people who spend hilarious prices to buy the cards they need for their deck that they want to take to their PTQ. It is literally like being in the mind of the people that you are trying to predict.

Tournament results that get a major nod here are probably significant. They should provide you with the foundation for determining what decks are likely going to become more popular. As we approach Modern PTQ season this gets more and more important. I always talk about how open Modern still is. There is a lot of potential for specific cards and even overlooked staples to rise in major levels.

I have no doubt that if you pay some attention to /r/spikes you will be able to profit a little bit. You will also be able to pick up staples for Modern before they skyrocket if you just want to play in PTQs. This is even relevant if you don’t want to invest but just want to play Magic and not have to spend as much money.

Content Sites

There are a whole host of websites out there that push content of varying quality. A lot of it is valuable. Some of it is not. That is the double edged sword of content: it is top-down. 

However, if you are reading content by people who know what they are doing it will be quite obvious. Many of the people above who are major personalities on Twitter also have corresponding content on websites. That makes them automatically very good people to track and at the very least skim through their content.

Analyzing the utility of such content is a different story. There are very useful articles posted that go over fundamentals and examine merits of different investments. Many also examine the history of the writer’s picks or recommendations and does a self-evaluation.

These are the best type of articles in my opinion. When we go back and examine what we did and our decisionmaking process we learn new things that we wouldn’t have learned had we chosen not to examine.

I have gone over the content that comes from the financial sector. Although it is very valuable to read content and be a part of the MTGFinance community, most picks are gone by the time MTGFinance people get turned onto them.

This is why it is also useful to follow the players’ communities as well. They are the ones who buy the cards. They are the ones who build the decks that the speculators end up speculating on.

How has knowledge meant power in your experience? Leave it in the comments.

City of Traders

Only God and Forsythe Can Judge Me

11 Comments

By: Travis Allen

I only wish I had put a finer point on it.

Capture1

Wizards has announced new judge promos, and they’re a doozy. In celebration of breaking 5,000 active judges we are getting some pretty sweet promos. Well, I shouldn’t say “we.” Roughly 1,000 to 1,500 people are getting some pretty sweet promos.

Yes, that’s right. It’s finally happened. We’re getting a foil Force of Will. Think of how awesome your Legacy deck is finally going to look. The only foils missing will be the duals!

ebay forces

Oh, you didn’t think you’d actually be able to afford them, did you?

Before we figure out exactly where these are going to land, let’s step back a bit and examine judge promos at large. I want us all to know what’s possible. I’ve compiled a list of every judge promo that’s been printed and its (rough) price. Some of these may be a surprise to you if you’ve never looked. For instance, did you know Stroke of Genius was a promo? Tradewind Rider?

c1

I separated the list into three categories because that will be the metric I am most interested in examining. I lumped all the exclusively currently-competitive promos together, all the strictly casual/EDH ones together, and then all the cards that blur those borders.You may have some disagreement about what column some of those cards fall into, but overall I think that’s a pretty reasonable separation. What immediately jumps out to me is how much more valuable the competitive cards are than the ones that are currently only playable in casual formats. Even if you cut the earliest six casual cards out of the equation as hailing from a bygone era of Magic, the casual cards are still barely half the value of the competitive ones.

Also interesting is that the cards that appeal to both markets are worth slightly less than strictly competitive cards. Part of that may be how I defined “both.” I’ve got things like Goblin Welder, Entomb and Mishra’s Factory in the both column that may be more appropriate in a different category. Still, that wouldn’t change the lists too much depending on where you moved them. If you shuffle some cards around the average of the both column may catch up in average price to the competitive ones, but they wouldn’t overtake them by much of anything.

Let’s make that point a little more clear: Cards that are strictly competitive in nature are overall the most valuable promos. The average price of cards only playable in casual formats is about half that of the competitive cards. The cards that are desirable for both formats are worth roughly the same as the cards only valued for competitive play. 

That last sentence tells us that on average, competitive play is by far the biggest indicator of value. Is card X playable in Legacy? Then the promo is going to be worth about $100. Is it playable in EDH too? Well, it’s still going to only be around $100. Apparently casual demand doesn’t push the price much higher on already-playable competitive staples.

Another aspect of all of this is age. Take a look at the last two years; 2013 and 2012. All five competitive cards are well represented in Legacy, and all five are $90-$200. All six casual cards are $15-$40 each. That’s a huge gap. But as you move further back, the lines start to blur a bit. Moving into 2011 and 2010 the average value of the competitive cards gets even higher, but the casual cards are gaining too. The outlier of Mana Crypt comes in at an absurd $250, and we get Wheel of Fortune pushing $100 as well.

Once you get into 2008 and earlier, the distinction is gone. You’ll notice less and less cards in the competitive column past 2009, and only three or four are nearly as heavily represented as the cards from 2010-2013. What’s going on here is the changing face of Legacy. Judge promos from 2007 were from a different era. Orim’s Chant, Exalted Angel and Living Death may have been constructed playable at some point in the past, but those days are behind us. Meanwhile the casual cards are all over the place. Staples like Demonic Tutor and Sol Ring command $200+ price tags, while cards from days of Magic past are $10 and $15. I’m also noticing that the cards that belong to both formats hold their overall value much better as we move back in time. Even a cards like Mishra’s Factory or Yawgmoth’s Will, which are only barely competitive, are still maintaining respectable price tags.

This is another valuable lesson. Competitive cards are worth a lot while they’re competitive, but formats are fickle and subject to the ravages of time. If a card drops out of competitive play and into the realm of kitchen tables it stands to lose a lot. Meanwhile, casual all-stars are only going to gain as time goes on. They have to be true staples though. Additionally, a mix of demand will help keep older judge promos afloat quite well, even if they’re not hot tickets in any particular format.

One thing to keep in mind is quantity. Those older judge promos were printed in much, much smaller amounts than the newer ones are, just as with current Magic sets. If Magic plateaus around 20 million active players you’re going to see the old promos settle at much higher prices than promos like Bribery or Genesis, even if they see comparable play, simply because of the quantity available. Another quick point: any good judge promo from pre-modern borders is going to be the safest of safe investments. Of course they’re mostly absurd already, but you absolutely cannot lose on them.

What have we learned from all of this that we can apply to our new promos? Competitive play is far and away the major impetus behind price on new promos. Casual play can’t keep newer promos up, not for the first year or two at least. Top tier casual staples will rise in price, but anything below the upper 5% should settle in the $20 to $50 range.

So how about those new promos?

Casual Only

    

Four generals and a premium green enchantment. The generals are a bit of untrodden territory, as Wizards has only really started pushing Commander in the last few years. If we take a look at the Commander’s Arsenal Kaalia we see she’s around $30, which should be a fair benchmark for these guys. Nekusar may end up the highest simply because he seems to be capable of driving the prices wild on many ‘draw extra’ cards, but then again the people playing those decks may not care much for a $50 foil general. Meanwhile, Greater Good is reasonably well represented in EDH according to metamox. It looks like it is just about as popular as Genesis, which is currently $20. Both of those will tick up over time, but I’d be surprised to see them more than double in the next five years.

 

 Mixed Play

 

Now THOSE are some promos. That Elesh Norn is quite possibly the coolest promo we’ve seen out of Wizards in years. That writing is Phyrexian if you are unaware. She’s awesome as heck, and people have taken notice:

elesh

This will absolutely come down, as she should reach typical levels of distribution. I’m not exactly sure when she’s going to be hitting judge packs though, so her price may be kind of nuts all the way out through the end of next year. She’s a bit different than our other competitive promos in more ways than one. You’ll notice that in the list above not a single card with competitive demand was strictly Modern playable. Elesh Norn is mostly unrepresented in Legacy, so all her competitive demand will be from Modern. At the end of the day I don’t think it’s going to matter though. If she was just another foil copy with a different set symbol her price wouldn’t be noteworthy, but that Phyrexian script is going to keep her high. My guess is that she’ll probably dip towards $90-$150 at her lowest. It could be a very long time before her effect is upgraded, and even if it is the promo is going to retain demand based simply on the uniqueness. Hold off for now, but when it gets close to $100 make sure you grab any you need.

Sword of Feast and Famine is roughly as played as Sword of Fire and Ice in EDH, Modern and Legacy. Expect it to start high at release, dip as the judge packs are released, then start climbing once its run is over. The judge Sword of Fire and Ice is currently $120 and it’s about three years old, so that gives you an idea of what to expect.

 

Grand Poobah of Legacytown

Let’s understand the facts first. We know it was sent to somewhere between 1,000 to 1,500 judges. The announcement read as if a single copy was sent to each judge, but I’m hearing reports that people got playsets. That means we’re most likely looking at a maximum of 6,000 copies on the market right now. While there was initial panic about the scarcity, Helene Bergeot confirmed multiple times that night that they would be available through other avenues in the future. Nobody is entirely sure what this means yet. Are they going to be the mythic rare of judge promos? How many more will we get? It’s very hard to say.

Let’s say we end up with roughly 10,000 copies of Force. That’s 2,500 playsets or so, depending on what the actual distribution ends up at. How scarce is that? One way to think of that is fifty playsets per state. Montana probably doesn’t need fifty sets, but California and New York sure as heck will.

The Forces are selling for around $1,000 right now, and that will come down. A bit. I think the absolute lowest they could possibly hit is $300-$400 unless there end up being many times more copies on the market than I’m predicting. Once they’re done distributing, the price is just going to keep ticking up and up and up. Force of Will is one of two banner cards of Legacy, and the other one already had a MM foil and an FNM promo. There is no other Force foil, and the original card is murky and just plain ugly. Any tier one Legacy card released in this capacity would have a hefty price tag, and this one is just going to get multiplied by status, lack of prior printings, and typically being run as a playset. Once the run is over, there’s no telling what this could reach. I would not be surprised whatsoever to see this north of $1,000 again a few years down the road.

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