Watchtower

Modern: A Week on

We’re a week on from the banning of Lurrus of the Dream-Den in Modern (and Pioneer), so I want to revisit the format and see how much it’s changed since then, and what kinds of decks we’re likely to see doing well over the coming weeks.

As expected, the Murktide Regent decks have seen a decent uptick in play, and in price. The dragon itself is up to around $24 now from the $18 I called it at last week, and I expect it to see further gains towards $30 over the next few weeks. The Death’s Shadow decks have definitely taken a back seat without their cat in the sideboard, although I think that this could be more of a product of people trying different things, rather than the deck actually being significantly worse than it was before.

Cultivator Colossus (EA)

Price today: $21
Possible price: $35

As predicted in last week’s article, Amulet Titan (amongst other more mana-intensive decks) has pushed its way to the forefront of the Modern meta – for now, at least. I’ve wanted to talk about Cultivator Colossus for a little while now but haven’t quite found the right space, so instead have just been keeping a close eye on the price and play patterns of the card.

Now though, I think the time is right to take a closer look at this card. Since people started testing it when Crimson Vow was released, it’s been a consistent 2-of in most Amulet Titan lists that we’ve seen do well across mono-green, green-white and green-black variants. I think that it’s likely to be a mainstay in the archetype going forwards, and Titan decks seem to be in a healthy place right now so I wouldn’t expect any bannings any time soon. It’s effectively Primeval Titan copies five and six, with the added benefit of being able to churn through your deck if you get lucky and have a bunch of lands to put into play with it. A point to note is that you can’t go infinite with bouncelands, but that doesn’t stop them from still being great here.

I really like the look of EA non-foils at the moment, because they’re only a dollar or so more expensive than the regular non-foils, and could be an attractive option for Modern players. There are only around 40 listings on TCGPlayer, and Europe already has these a decent chunk more expensive at around $26. That’s a good indicator that this is a strong Modern card, and being a premium treatment mythic there aren’t ever going to be too many copies running around.

It’s worth noting that this is also a 5k card on EDHREC, putting it solidly in the top 5 cards from Crimson Vow if you discount the land cycle (so top 10 anyway if you don’t). I think that this is a solid pick for both medium and long term speculation, and would be happy grabbing a stack around $20-22.

Omnath, Locus of Creation

Price today: $8
Possible price: $20

Omnath has been a reasonable force in Modern for quite a while now, never really dominating the top tables but putting up solid results nonetheless, between a few different flavours of four/five colour Yorion piles and the dedicated Elementals deck. Even after the Uro banning, the Yorion variant of the deck has continued to perform and be popular, and we’re now seeing somewhat of an Elemental/Yorion hybrid version emerge into the metagame.

Pretty much all of the decks in Modern playing Omnath are currently running four copies, and I like the look of regular non-foils right now. Since the spike around September last year this is currently the lowest price the card has been, and I think it’s a good time to pick some up. As well as being a Modern playset, it’s an EDH favourite to play as a Commander and likely a popular casual card too. CardKingdom are currently paying $6.75 cash/$8.78 credit which is a good sign that they’re reasonably high on the card too, and I honestly believe that this could be a $20 not too far down the road.

I think that the only danger of a reprint for this card would be in a Commander deck, but even then I really think that they would prioritise a new four colour legend over reprinting this one. I’m betting that this Omnath will be safe for a little while, so I wouldn’t be particularly scared of picking these up right now – and hey, we might even see a five colour version of Omnath at some point before this one hits the printers again.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern and EDH. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

What We Can Learn From Bad Purchases

I’ve been playing the finance side of Magic for a long time now, and while I’ve had my share of big hits, I’m also someone with a spec box full of misses.

There’s lessons in these misses, though, and for most of them, it’s not bad luck, it’s bad timing. I can’t do anything about unexpected reprints or bannings, but I do have power over when I buy in on a card. Today’s lesson is about good picks made at bad times, and what can be done to prevent doing that, plus how to adjust if you’ve done it.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Future Bulk All-Stars

Readers!

On the Brainstorm Brewery podcast, we do 2 segments because, like an invertebrate, we would literally collapse without the structure they provide. In the first, we highlight a card that’s worth around a buck but people don’t think to pull from bulk, or it’s a card we find out later was worth money and we’re 100% sure we bulked out and we’re mad about it (Well, DJ and I bulked it out, Corbin probably left it in a 5 row in his office and it was destroyed in a flood). The other is where we highlight a card we think could go up based on knowing how MTG Finance works and assuming our audience would rather reserve the mental effort that we put into learning that stuff for teaching their kids to read or getting some of the new BS words the New York Times started putting in Wordle.

Sometimes I conflate the two and pick a card in bulk that I think will go up. That’s me doing both segments wrong, but am I doing the audience wrong? I maintain it’s a service to tell people not to bulk out a card that could potentially go up 10,000% and to make sure they have them set aside for when people first want them. Some picks are easy – Chain of Acid when Chain of Smog went up. Some are less obvious but I think I have the justification for about 5 of them here today.

I am pretending to think you want to know “Jason, what if I don’t have bulk laying around, what good is it to tell me to pick bulk I don’t have?” and my answer to that is to check LGSes. If you try to get a $0.05 Whip Silk, they’re going to look it up on TCG Player and be cross with you for trying to “get” them, but if you pick up Mourning, a card for the same deck, you’ll get them for 9 cents. Is Mourning as good? No, but a lot of people play both and with Mourning being less obvious, there is time to snag them. Do they have the same trajectory? I doubt it, especially with Green being played more in Enchantress right now than Black, even with Tatsunari being so popular. That said, I think less-built Kami commander decks and Street Fighter decks are likely to do some predictable things to literal bulk. The obvious ones have popped, so let’s look at less obvious.

Card – Viridescent Wisps

Culprit – Blanka

Blanka, Ferocious Friend · Secret Lair Drop (SLD) #431 · Scryfall Magic: The Gathering Search

I’d like to look at a card that also goes in Blanka and has popped previously for other decks like Zada.

We had a short window to get literally $4 for our 5 cent card, but with other Wisps, we can buy in at a dime and wait a while for Street Fighter decks to actually come out. Will Blanka be as popular as Zada? Is Feather helping Crimson Wisps? Those aren’t the questions – the questions are whether you want to buy a pile for a dime and buylist for 58 cents whenever the Street Fighter decks come out to Card Kingdom and buy a Tropical Island.

Card – Crown of Flames

Culprit – Kaima

A lot of trash could go up on the basis of Kaima, but this could be the set that makes Crown of Flames start to do a bad impression of Whip Silk. A bad impression is all we need.

Crown of Flames is also in Tempest so there is more supply, but not as much as you might think. Non-Green enchantment-fall cards don’t have as much pressure on them, but there is pressure, if only from Kaima.

Kaima is also responsible, I hope, for this beauty.

Even older than the second Crown of Flames printing, Bequethal saw a bit of a boost to 80 cents last year. It’s still gettable in bulk and once that wall on sites like Coolstuff evaporates, there’s money there. You’d need a more sustained push than it got last time, though, since the buylist price merely doubled (“merely”) though.

I have less confidence in Bad Rancor over here, but it is similar to the cards I am more confident about.

Card – Blood Speaker

Culprit – Unnanounced new New Capenna Demon

I don’t know anything you don’t, I just assume there will be demons.

This feels a little like cheating, but if Bequeathal wasn’t, then neither is this potential second spike. You can’t scoope these for bulk necessarily unless your LGS doesn’t own a computer, but if you have Kamigawa bulk, you have copies of this card so yank ’em.

That does it for me this week. I think there are likely to be more “penny stocks” like this and if this is well received, I could consider doing this again in the future. If you think I should not, tell me that, too.

That does it for me – until next time!

Watchtower

Banned & Restricted

It’s times like these that I’m grateful for the fact that I don’t write these articles ahead of time and wait until Monday to decide what I’m going to talk about, because we just got a huge Banned & Restricted announcement. Not huge in the number of changes (although we did get three changes in Pauper), but huge in the fact that Lurrus of the Dream-Den has been a dominant force in both Modern and Pioneer since it was printed, and has just been banned in both those formats.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern and EDH. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

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