Watchtower

Another Happy Landing

After last week’s venture into wild speculation territory, I thought I’d bring us back down to earth this week with some solid lands that I think are going to do well for us in the short to mid term.

Botanical Sanctum (Foil)

Price today: $10
Possible price: $40

Spirebluff Canal had been climbing for a while and recently spiked, both foils and non-foils alike. It’s seen a good amount of use in Modern over the past few years since it was printed in Kaladesh, and we haven’t had a reprint since then. Botanical Sanctum sees a little less competitive play than the Canal, but all the same looks primed to be the next one to spike.

Living End is currently playing a playset in Modern, with the Crashing Footfalls and Urza’s Kitchen decks playing occasional copies as well. It’s a popular Pioneer card and in nearly 10,000 EDH decks on EDHREC (incidentally around 2500 more than Spirebluff Canal), so there’s no doubt it’s a popular card. Foils have been draining hard, especially in the US, and so if you want any personal copies then now is the time (unless you want to wait for a reprint).

It’s entirely possible that we could see these lands reprinted in one of the upcoming Innistrad sets this fall, but I think that there’s still enough time to be in and out on some of these for a tidy profit before then. Europe has a good number of copies around $10 too, and so if you can shift those over to the US market then you should be able to realise some quick gains from those. There are only fourteen NM foil listings left on TCGplayer, most of which are single copies, so it seems like a strong movement similar to that of Spirebluff Canal is imminent.

Waterlogged Grove

Price today: $8
Possible price: $20

Waterlogged Grove is by far the cheapest of the dual lands from Modern Horizons (the first one), and I think that it’s due for a price correction pretty quickly. It’s being played in multiple Modern decks including Elementals, Humans and Crashing Footfalls, as well as being a popular EDH card in nearly 20,000 EDH decks on EDHREC. Albeit not quite as popular as most of the other lands in the cycle, it’s definitely still up there and so being so much cheaper than the rest of them isn’t going to hold up for long.

There’s still a decent amount of supply on most of these non-foil dual lands from Modern Horizons, but seeing as we didn’t get a reprint of them in MH2 along with some of the others that got the old border treatment, I’m not really sure where we might see them printed again. With that in mind, I like picking up a stack of non-foils here to hold for a little while and look to either buylist or sell playsets on TCGPlayer etc a way down the road.

Hall of Heliod’s Generosity (Retro Foil)

Price today: $6
Possible price: $20

Staying with Modern Horizons, looking at the dual land cycle also had me looking at Hall of Heliod’s Generosity. This one did get a reprint with the retro foil treatment in MH2, and although it brought the price of the card down across all versions, I don’t think that’s going to last very long. Original foils from MH1 are still holding around $14, whilst these new ones are down at $6 for the time being, both in the US and Europe. There aren’t too many copies before the listings hit $10 though, and I think that’s a good sign that we’re going to see upwards pressure on this card as more people pick them up and upgrade their old copies.

Hall of Heliod’s Generosity is in over 26,000 EDH decks on EDHREC – a veritable staple in enchantment-based decks and a highly playable card in any deck that can put it to use. It sees a smattering of play in Modern and Legacy, mostly in Enchantress decks, but EDH is where it really shines, and I think will continue to be a very popular card moving forward. Enchantments will always be a big part of EDH and so this will always be useful, and I think that these $6 copies are far too cheap. Give it 6-12 months and I think we’ll see $20+ on these – and don’t sleep on the rest of the retro foils as well, because the popular ones are likely to see similar patterns.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

Time to Buy Modern Horizons 2

I’ll get back to rotation in a week, but right now, we need to talk about the fact that Modern Horizons 2 is at some impressively low prices. This isn’t about the big name of Ragavan, but more about the casual staples that took a big dive, and see if we want to get in at these prices.

One thing I want to note: Because there’s been an impressively large amount of MH2 opened, a lot of cards have really crashed. We can’t overlook how several of the cards hadn’t been reprinted since the early 2000s, and those prices were more about the scarcity than the demand. We need to keep in mind that while these have potential, none of these are projected to gain quickly.

Patriarch’s Bidding ($1.50) – The nonfoils from Onslaught were up to $60 this summer, but you can get this for under $30 now. The casual appeal is possibly there, but there’s only a bit over five thousand decks on EDHREC that are using it. That’s too few, frankly. This should be in every tribal deck which has black as a color, because while you might give the other players some creatures back, you’re getting everything back.

My only concern with buying in on this card is that with it being so cheap now, it’s a prime candidate for inclusion in a Commander deck in the future. If I knew it would never be printed that way, I’d slam dunk a big stack of these because of the potential for abuse. It hasn’t gotten featured on a Commander video yet, but this is a star in my Zombie and Dragon decks. Plus, buying in so low, it won’t take much to raise this up to profitability.

Sterling Grove ($2.50) – This was as high as $17 for the Invasion version before the reprint, but it’s only down about $5. More than 8k decks have this registered online and we keep getting support for GW as an enchantment color pair. I’d expect this to climb back upwards nicely, but I’m not expecting any sudden gains–just a slow, steady climb right back into the land of profitability.

Riptide Laboratory ($0.50) – The original nonfoil is down to $9, but this is criminally cheap for one of the best enablers around. Once in a while, someone in Modern tosses a copy in their deck in order to maximize Snapcaster Mage shenanigans, but this is a casual card through and through. Given that the card is in a similar number of decks as Bidding, that’s a lot of Wizard tribal decks out there. The presence of a $9 nonfoil, in old border, represents a clear ceiling for the price. If you’re buying in for fifty cents, though, you’re mass buylisting these at $2 in a year to 18 months.

Mirari’s Wake ($5.50) – This is probably the safest bet on this list, as a mythic and because it’s already 22,000 strong on EDHREC. Yes, there’s more than one reprint: Conspiracy, Commander 2017, and a Pro Tour Promo. Plus, there’s a borderless version that has foils under $25. I like getting some borderless foils now, and getting the cheapest versions as well. The borderless foils should appreciate nicely, as the art looks great and only so many people want to shell out $200 for the original pack foil.

That graph, showing me that the card has dropped significantly, tells me that I want to own more than a few copies of the card in question. Casual demand is strong enough hat despite the repeated reprints, it’s rebounded. Get in while it’s cheap.

Ignoble Hierarch ($10) – Noble has gotten a lot of printings, and rebounded until she got three in a year. Plus this Ignoble isn’t a Human, and that’s a big deal. Still, there’s a shortage of mana dorks that have relevance later in the game, and this being the only printing is going to go a long way. The Commander appeal isn’t really present, so I want to get the cheapest version of these, and sell out when someone makes Jund come to life once more.

Kaldra Compleat ($11) – Batterskull’s combination of a reset function, lifelink, and vigilance will probably always ensure that it’s the most popular Stoneforge target, but this is showing up as a secondary choice. This ends the game FAST, being a 5/5 with trample, haste, and indestructible, but it’s terrible on defense, lacking that key vigilance. It’s relatively popular in Commander too, getting put into a lot of decks for only having been available for a couple of months. Go for the cheap versions here too.

Priest of Fell Rites ($0.75) – I’m very fond of this card as a reanimator, something you can use more than once or recur in some way. It’s a great way to reanimate aggressively for something like Archon of Cruelty or Angel of Despair, or just value in Commander. The addition of Unearth to something like this is extra fun, as you can just mill yourself silly. I like picking up a brick of these now for future buylisting.

Scion of Draco ($4) – Given Modern manabases, this is not difficult to have at two mana on turn two, fetchland into Triome and then fetch for a shockland. Sadly, it lacks haste or haste enabling, and while two mana for a 4/4 flyer that gives some bonuses is good, it’s not gamebreaking. Yet. Since this is a mythic, there’s less copies out there, and something that should have nice gains on a long timeline.

Fetchlands: Go get the Modern Horizons copies you need. They have officially reached their lows, and the FEA copies are notably cheaper than the OBF versions. The large amount of copies that have been opened have made their way onto the market and the price is right. If you’ve been patient, it’s time.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: Theros Beyond Debt

Readers!

I know what you’re thinking – sweet title, right? What’s it mean? Well, it doesn’t mean anything, I literally just wanted to make a stupid pun about Theros Beyond Death and I used “debt” because it’s a word sometimes associated with finance. Not in any context I want to talk about, it’s just a money word and I made a pun that is more fun than it is accurate and I don’t have to impress you.

If you want to be mad at the dumb title, go ahead, but I’m positive you’re going to forgive me because I am about to make you think about a set you probably haven’t thought about in a while and maybe never even thought about as a set rather than as individual cards. Remember that thing I did with War of the Spark a while back? Well this week I’m doing it about Theros Beyond Death. Honestly, Ikoria is probably a better choice, but I’ll do that next week because I already wrote the title and the paragraph explaining the title and this paragraph where I referenced the paragraph where I explained the title and I don’t want to start over so here we go IT’S THEROS TIME BABEEEEEEEE.

Why Theros?

Theros Beyond Death is a set with a lot of cards that get played in EDH and it was the first full set with a ton of showcase cards meaning we can track how those cards are doing 18 months later to try and see what we can glean about the future of AFR Collector Boosters (I am so sorry if you bought AFR Collector Boosters) and other products that came out this year. I mean, maybe? All I know is that some of the cards from Theros that I thought we missed are still creeping up, so while an optimal buy-in isn’t in the cards at this point, I still want to go over the set. EDHREC sorts by % inclusion when you look at the set as a set, and that’s the order I will go in, even if some cards farther down on the list are played more on an absolute basis.

There are (jesus) 27 Legendary creatures in Theros which is just too many, but don’t worry, every set has 27 Legendary creatures now.

This is honestly super sad. Look at this. In the number one spot you have a boring, mono-White commander (#127 in the last 2 years, ranking behind commanders from a set that came out this month), in 3rd place you have an uncommon and only 3 of the commanders have more than 1,000 decks. This set is BAD for commanders. A lot of these creatures are good in the 99, so make them non-Legendary and give us fewer Legendary creatures, then.

I planned to spend a couple of paragraphs on this but honestly, it’s way worse than I thought. Please don’t pin me down and ask me to explain what I mean by “bad” beyond me just saying what all the numbers are – it just “feels” like a bad set for commanders and I will not be taking further questions at this time.

What’s good is that the set is full of good cards and I’m going to talk about them now.

This set is STACKED.

I am not making a proclamation about how I feel about these being around $200, but I will mention one more time that this set is lousy with value. Let’s play the hits before I go trolling for underpriced gems.

This is half of what it peaked at, and paltry play in paper played a part, but I also think it’s not unreasonable for EDH alone to make this a $15 card, barring a reprint. Insulated from reprint, though, is this.

The Extended art is worth far more than the foil, which is barely worth more than the non-foil. I didn’t want to say that this is exactly what would happen 18 months ago because I would have been guessing. An educated guess, sure, but a guess. What we’re seeing is the price of the extended art non-foil being basically double the set foil, but the prices not really diverging yet. The shape of the graphs are nearly identical, which is something else I wouldn’t have predicted. I think the Extended Art Foil will diverge from the non-foil more but I think the Extended art non-foil will diverge from the set non-foil, too, eventually. I don’t know when – 18 months in is a long time to wait if it’s going to happen but hasn’t yet. But Thassa’s Oracle is a cEDH card, so maybe we look at something that isn’t.

This is the regular version

Which is basically half of the cost of the Extended Art which is itself a third of the cost of the Extended Art foil. So the EA foil is 6 times the cost of the set non-foil while the set foil is basically the cost of the set non-foil. This is basically what we talked about 18 months ago but the crazy part is, the graphs are moving together on this card, too. OK, so we looked at a card played in a ton of formats including cEDH and a card that is a mythic, how about an EDH-specific non-mythic rare?

Shadowspear has quintupled in the last 18 months. How about the Extended Art?

Very similar overall graph trend. The thing with Shadowspear is that the Extended Art is not worth fully twice as much as the non-extended art and the EA foil is only double the EA non-foil. It seems like for a card to be truly juiced, you’ll need it to be mythic or playable outside of just EDH. Shadowspear is a bonkers card, btw, and it’s in 25,000 decks which is something I assumed but didn’t say to anyone which means I didn’t actually predict it.

I think the price on these 3 cards is more or less correct which is why I used them as a reference. I think there are some prices that are likely not correct, though, so let’s take a look.

This looks arbable (is that a word? Able to be arbitraged?) but I don’t trust those BL values. What I do think is that a card that everyone is ignoring because it is banned a lot matters a ton in EDH and we should be paying attention to it. 1 in every 8 decks containing Red built in the last 18 months runs this card, I think if it’s below $10, we can safely pick these up. There are as many copies of it as there are Shadowspear unless I missed some Event Deck or something, so it’s very reasonable to buy these at $5 and try to get out at the $20-$25 people want for Shadowspear, a card in fewer decks according to EDHREC.

This seems like it’s underpriced, to me.

The Extended Art has demonstrated the ability to go to $20 on the basis of help from other formats, something it could get in the future, and I think these are a pretty safe pickup.

These are twice as much on CK as they are on TCG Player and you know me, I tend to view CK’s stock as a bit of a canary in a coal mine. If they charge twice what TCG Player does and sell out, that’s a sign that EDH players are interested. CK wants $4 for the regular art and $6 for the EA, and that’s pretty reasonable considering this is in 15,000 decks in the last 18 months. It’s in 10,000 more decks than the next-most-played Intervention, Nylea’s. This card is flying under the radar outside of the people buying and building with this card and while White kinda sucks in EDH, this would still be a Top 15 card if we sorted by absolute inclusion rather than percentage of eligible deck inclusion. This is the real deal and it being gettable for $2 on TCG Player seems juicy to me.

For a moment in time, the Extended Art Woe Strider was worth 8 times what the regular art was. Even on non-mythic rares, the Extended Art can get pretty pricey. I really like the idea of targeting EA versions of non-mythics that are basically bulk rares because of a huge supply because the EA copies at least have a chance.

There is a GULF between $18 and $12. These are 50% more expensive on CK, which also only wants $20 for the Constellation version. This is a slam dunk, imo, especially at TCG prices.

The price has been consistent for 18 months, that’s not right and it’s going to correct eventually. The cheapest this ever got on CK was $12 and that’s what they are on TCG Player right now. Scoop these.

I think it’s possible there are more picks here, and feel free to peruse this entire list for more hits. I am looking forward to Ikoria next week, I feel like the pandemic overshadowed that set quite a bit and I think it’s juicier than just about any set since Kaladesh. Join me, won’t you? Until next time!

Watchtower

Innistrad: Speculation Hunt

It’s a shame that I wasn’t writing this article a few days ago, because if I were then I would’ve told you to go and buy Dress Downs, but as it is they’re mostly long gone and so I have to find something else to talk about today instead. Over the weekend we got some fresh previews for the next set, Innistrad: Midnight Hunt, even though it feels like we only just finished preview season for Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. Either way, the product keeps coming and so we’ve got to keep up with it, which means that today I’m looking ahead to what might be a good buy in view of the spoilers we’ve seen so far.

Death Baron (Foil)

Price today: $5
Possible price: $20

One of the most exciting previews we got from the weekend was Champion of the Perished – effectively a Champion of the Parish but for Zombies instead of Humans. We’ve all seen how good Champion of the Parish is in Modern Humans, and I feel like with the current suite of Zombies we have that there could actually be a real Modern deck there, especially if we get another couple of juicy additions from Innistrad.

Even failing a new Modern deck popping up, we’re definitely going to be getting some more Zombies and they’re one of the most popular EDH tribes going, and Death Baron is in over 80% of them. A Lord that also gives deathtouch is just a no-brainer when you’re building that kind of deck, and so it’s no surprise that foils have been drying up recently.

Original Shards of Alara foils are almost non-existent in the US marketplace, with other foil versions starting at around $5 but with steep ramps and low supply. The M19 foils only have 16 listings on TCGPlayer, with both the promo versions having less than that and the only other foil being the Convention Promo, which is already $20+ with very few copies available. If you can snag some cheaper Convention promos then they might be good, but I think you’ll have most success cleaning up the $5 M19 and promo pack copies. Cheaper copies are available in Europe too, with some original foils still around for €5, so that’s a good play if you have access to the European market.

Full Moon’s Rise & Howlpack Resurgence (Foil)

Price in Europe: ~€1 ($1)
Price in US: $5-8
Possible price: $10-15

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt is in name a Werewolf-themed set, and so we should expect a good number of Werewolves and Werewolf-themed cards to go with them. When you’re playing a tribal deck you really want as many anthems as you can get for them, and we’ve got a couple of good options for Werewolves. Both Full Moon’s Rise and Howlpack Resurgence are cheap enchantments that boost stats as well as giving trample, with some extra utility to boot – Howlpack having Flash and Full Moon’s Rise giving the ability to save your board from a wrath or some bad trades in combat.

Both of these enchantments are almost out of stock on TCGPlayer for NM foils, but as is generally the case, these EDH and casual-only cards have a decent amount more stock over in Europe. Foils aren’t hugely plentiful, but there’s a reasonable supply on MKM still and lots of copies to be had for around €1. I expect to see those dry up once people realise the opportunity, so if you want any personal or spec copies then Europe is the place to find them.

I expect that we could easily see another anthem effect in the new set, but we definitely won’t get a Full Moon’s Rise reprint because Wizards have moved away from Regenerate as an ability, and I’d be surprised if we saw a Howlpack Resurgence reprint either. Both these cards are must-haves for casual or EDH Werewolf decks, so they should sell well once the hype revs up a little more.

Past in Flames (Foil)

Price today: $10
Possible price: $25

Another preview from the weekend was Join the Dance, a token maker with Flashback, which means that means we’re flashing back Flashback in the Innistrad flashback. Right? Good. So anyway, I’ve been looking at some of the best Flashback cards that Magic has to offer, and I think that original Past in Flames foils are in quite a good place right now. The most recent reprint in Time Spiral Remastered gave us the most premium version of the card yet, in old-border foil, but the original foils are the next best thing and at a third of the price, I think they’re going to move soon.

Storm isn’t too big in Modern right now, but it’s ebbed and flowed in the meta for a while now and is sure to pop up again before long. Other than that, Past in Flames is a very popular EDH card in over 10,000 decks listed on EDHREC, as it’s just good value for any deck leaning on instants and sorceries or trying to combo off.

There are only 17 NM foil listings for the original Innistrad foils on TCGPlayer right now, with a relatively steep ramp up over $20. Europe has a few copies around $10 too but not a huge amount before the price climbs too. Original foils tend to always carry a premium over most other versions, and with the lower supply on these I don’t think it should take too long for them to crest $20.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY