Watchtower

Finding a Niche

It’s easy to look at the big movers and shakers in formats like Modern and forget about the little guys, but it’s often the little guys that can end up making you the most money. The big cards like Ragavan and Lurrus are likely past the point of speculation, and so we need to dig a little deeper to find some of the cards that people aren’t necessarily paying the most attention to, but are still important parts of the metagame. Four-ofs that give a deck consistency, sideboard cards and more play these roles, and so that’s what I’m looking at today.

Utopia Sprawl (Non-foil/foil)

Price today: $7.50/$30+
Possible price: $15/$50+

It’s hard to believe that we’ve only just had the third ever printing of this card, but here we are. The common that was first released 15 years ago in Dissension has only since seen reprints in Masters 25 and now the Adventures in the Forgotten Realms Commander decks. It’s always been a popular EDH card – in nearly 18k decks on EDHREC to date – and has dipped in and out of the Modern meta over the past few years as well, notably in Ponza and midrange decks, and most recently being a staple in both the Enchantress and Elementals decks.

This consistent popularity across multiple formats has led to a steady price increase over the past couple of years, making for a $7-8 common and $30+ foil. There’s a lot more supply around with the new Commander decks being released, but prices are still $8+ for those and I don’t know that we’re going to see that going down to be honest. This influx of new supply is quite a lot, but it’s going to get sucked up by EDH players relatively quickly, and CardKingdom is already paying $6 cash/$7.80 credit for the new copies on their buylist which is a huge indicator that they’re very bullish on it.

I quite like grabbing a stack of $7-8 Utopia Sprawls here, and if you can find any foils on the cheaper end (A25 under $30 and Dissension under $50) then you’re probably going to do well too. All versions are a little cheaper in Europe right now but not by much at all, and supply is similarly low for older copies and foils. This is a card that’s going to be heavily played in EDH forever and likely to be a reasonable part of the Modern meta for the foreseeable future, and given the fact that we’ve just had a reprint I think you should be safe there for a good while.

Engineered Explosives (All versions)

Prices today: $15-$40
Possible prices: $30-$80

Engineered Explosives used to be a huge part of the Modern meta, and could be found in a huge proportion of sideboards across a large range of decks. It did fall out of favour for a little while, and that coupled with its reprints in both Ultimate Masters and then again in Double Masters tanked the price for a while. However, its popularity is back on the upswing and with that copies are draining out of the market and prices heading upwards again.

Explosives got as low as $3 last year, and so if you were in on copies back then, more power to you – but I think that there’s still good money to be made on the $15 copies. The fact is that supply has been draining and even for the Double Masters version, the ones that should be in the most plentiful supply, there are only 23 NM non-foil listings on TCGPlayer and fewer foils. We have a few different printings of the card but all are in short supply, and I think that you’ll do well on anything you pick up now. The Inventions are the only ones I might not advocate for right now, but even then if you snap off the cheapest copy on TCGPlayer ($120) you’ll probably make money on it; there are only five listings for it and they ramp up steeply.

This is also a great arbitrage opportunity, because Europe hasn’t caught up yet and still has a bunch of €5 ($6) copies available alongside €30 ($35) Box Toppers and €50 ($60) Inventions. If you need any copies for Modern then scoop them up quickly, because I think that prices are going to keep heading upwards for a fair bit before we see another reprint.

Kaheera, the Orphanguard (FEA)

Price in Europe: €5 ($6)
Price in US: $15
Possible price: $30

I’ve written enough about the Companions from Ikoria before that you should know I’m generally a fan of them as specs. Lurrus is still dominating in multiple formats (and is currently the most played creature in Modern), and Yorion and Obosh are still relevant in Modern too. Now with the rise of the Elemental tribal deck, Kaheera has pushed to the forefront of the meta too, having previously been relegated to just being a ‘free card’ for creatureless control decks to play as a Companion.

It may only be played in a couple of Modern decks, but it’s relatively popular both as a Companion and as part of the 99 in EDH and supply has been dwindling on FEA copies for a little while now. TCGPlayer is down to just eight listings for NM foils, and so I’m looking at Europe for cheaper copies instead. Over here you can still pick a reasonable number up from €5-10, including some Japanese copies if you’re feeling particularly spicy.

These should make for a nice flip and short hold – there’s no more Ikoria supply inbound and I highly doubt we’ll see another FEA Kaheera printing for a little while to come, so you should be good to grab a few of these confidently. I’d also take a look at some of the other popular Companions that haven’t quite popped yet, because the same logic applies and I’d expect to see them following the same path before long.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

What I have and Haven’t Bought

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Every once in a while, it’s good for me to be transparent about the purchases I’ve made. Generally, you can expect that I’ve been making purchases of things I pick, or at least I tell you what price I’m looking for. I want to tell you about the things I’ve picked up that I didn’t necessarily write about. 

I’m also going to make a distinction between the things I buy for speculative purposes (the things I intend to resell later for profit) and the things I’ve purchased for my own Commander decks. 

Did buy: Most Dragons for my Ur-Dragon deck

As a five-color deck, I get to have my pick of all the dragons ever printed. My deck is heavy on the slam and roar and attack, nothing too fancy. Because of The Ur-Dragon’s ability (and btw he’s overdue for a reprint in some way) to lower casting costs on Dragons, it’s really easy to overlook what it does. 

Especially when I’m adding Iymrith, Desert Doom for $18 and Ebondeath, Dracolich for $15 in borderless foil. It’s possible that those drop down another buck or two, but I’m not going to sweat that too hard. Vendors and dealers have gotten their allocations and are cracking like mad, so there’s still space for the chase versions to go a little lower when individuals get their sealed product this week, and usually put it on the market the second weekend of availability. 

Ebondeath is a card I might go a little deeper on if the borderless foil starts knocking on $10. It’s recursive, which is good, but it’s also a Dragon Zombie, an intersection of two extremely popular tribes. $15 is a bit high for my taste when I don’t have any special reason to like a card, but recursive threats in good tribes catch my eye.

Didn’t Buy Yet: Tiamat

There was a point this past weekend, on 7-23, when Tiamat in borderless foil could be had for $50. It seems odd to me that the chase mythic of the set would be a five-color Commander, which hasn’t yet been the case with other Commanders. The foil is back over $70 this week, but I’m expecting this price to tumble back down. Right now, we’re still seeing people buy this card in a hurry to upgrade their Commander decks. I respect that, but I’m not going to spend $70 when a couple weeks’ patience will save me $25 or more. 

If you don’t believe me, allow me to share the graph from a card sought after much harder than Tiamat at the beginning, and also in a set that’s relatively underpowered: Phyrexian Foil Vorinclex.

There’s a whole lot of copies under $160 for this card, there’s not just one outlier making things difficult for the algorithm. The hype has died down, and while I know I could get the best price by waiting three months, I’m willing to pay Tiamat’s price in about 3-4 weeks because I really want to play with the Dragon God.

Did buy: 2x Champion’s Helm (Invention) at $60

Granted this was about a month and a half ago, and the price is a little higher now, but there aren’t a lot of cheap Inventions left in the world. This one is near and dear to my heart, as I have lots of Commanders who love hexproof. This has had exactly two printings: Commander 2011 as a nonfoil, and then this as the only foil version out there. There’s a lot of good Equipment out there for Commanders, but one mana for a big buff and that wonderful, wonderful feeling of hexproof is high on the list for me. 

Did buy: 16x Foil Unholy Heat under $4

There’s more copies out there on TCG under $4, but I don’t like buying single cards and having to unpack them from shipping. It’s worth a little more money from me to get several at once, rather than save 15% but have 16 different envelopes to open. That’s something I do–if you don’t mind getting more letters, then rock on.

Unholy Heat has taken Modern by storm. Dragon’s Rage Channeler already pushes you to want delirium, Mishra’s Bauble doesn’t really cost a card in enabling that status, and if you get there, the rate on Unholy Heat is the best ever. And it’s an instant, and can even take out planeswalkers! I have high hopes for this card, common or not. 

I don’t think these are going to spike or anything, but this is the cheapest they will be going forward. Go ahead and get the ones you want/need.

Did buy: 12x FEA Path of Ancestry for about $4 each

I’m unlikely to go deeper on this, because I worry that Commander Legends 2 will have this as a reprint next year. We aren’t going to get CL2 in 2021, but it seems a lock for 2022. Path is a five-color utility land that really rewards tribal decks, and even though the basic one comes in most Commander decks, there have only been two foil versions. Over on EDHREC, it’s registered in 53k decks, proving what a staple it is. 

Didn’t buy: FEA Hobgoblin Bandit Lord at $3.20 each

While I adore this card and what it does for Goblins decks, I’m not ready to stock up on things from AFR. We’re only a week in, and it’s got plenty of time for the price to trickle farther downward. I do note that there are cheaper individual copies out there, and CK has a set of 8 for $2.50 each, which is a more appealing price. Even with all that, the first week of a set is not the time to be purchasing the long-term specs, so I’m staying away for now.

Watchtower

Feeling Blue? Ask Your Doctor If Modern Is Right For You

I hadn’t actually intended to just write about blue cards today, but I ended up doing just that and so here we are. Modern is still great and I’m just going to keep writing about it until someone tells me not to – paper tournaments are slowly returning and people are buying their Modern cards again (me included), so let’s see what we should be buying right now.

Murktide Regent

Price today: $20
Possible price: $40

Murktide Regent has quickly become a staple in the Izzet Tempo decks that are dominating Modern at the moment, and although it generally ends up costing two mana rather than one, it might just be a new and improved Delver of Secrets. With fetchlands in the format it’s not too difficult to cast this for two mana on turn three, and in this kind of deck it’s almost always going to come into play as a 5/5 or bigger. On top of that, any time you delve away any more instants or sorceries, Murktide just grows bigger, and can take over a game incredibly quickly.

All the Delver-esque decks are playing four Regents at the moment, and it’s pretty much become a staple in Legacy Delver decks as well. I don’t think it’s quite powerful enough to get banned, although we’ll have to keep an eye on it – but for the time being I don’t think it’s likely to be unseated from its place in these decks.


$20 is already a high-ish buy-in for a card that’s pretty much at peak supply right now, but if we compare it to other mythics from the set then it’s actually not looking too bad. Ragavan is already a $70 card and Endurance is $35, so $20 for a card with such a high amount of competitive play seems like it should easily get there soon enough. Supply is still reasonable at 125 TCGPlayer listings, but the vast majority of those are just single copies, and MKM is actually more expensive at the moment.

Striped Riverwinder (Foil)

Price in Europe: €2 ($2.50)
Price in US: $???
Possible price: $8

Living End is continuing to put up the numbers in Modern with the new-to-Modern Shardless Agent at the helm, and the Elementals from MH2 in the forms of Subtlety and Grief backing it up. Striped Riverwinder has long been an absolute staple in the deck – one mana to cycle and producing a huge 6/5 Hexproof body is some of the best value you can get with Living End, and so I don’t see it shifting from the list any time soon.

As far as I can see, foils are basically non-existent in the US. TCGPlayer has none, and there are just a sparse few copies across the major vendors. There aren’t exactly a huge number of copies in Europe either, but it’s still a great deal more than there are in the US, and so we have ourselves a nice arbitrage opportunity. This may only be a foil common, but it’s only ever had a single printing and it might be a little while yet before we see another set with Cycling in for a potential reprint. Ikoria had Cycling but no reprint for the Riverwinder, and so as a four-of in one of the more dominant Modern decks at the moment, copies are difficult to get hold of.

If you pick some of these up in Europe I can honestly see them selling for close to $7-8 each on TCGPlayer. People that want them for Living End may well pay a good $30 for their playsets, and being able to sell four at a time makes your life much easier.

Brazen Borrower (Showcase)

Price in Europe: €26 ($30)
Price in US: $40
Possible price: $50

Brazen Borrower has waxed and waned in Modern (and other formats) since its printing way back in Throne of Eldraine, but is back to the forefront of the meta again now. Four copies in the Crashing Footfalls Cascade decks, as well as lots of other decks playing 1-3 copies between main and sideboards – Living End, Izzet Tempo, Jeskai control lists etc. – and it’s the 7th most played creature in Modern right now.

The Showcase versions of these are really nice – Eldraine had one of my favourite Showcase styles that we’ve seen for a while, and people want the pretty ones for their decks. Supply is running very low now with only 24 TCGPlayer listings across foils and non-foils, with non-foils running around $40+ and foils already up at $100. This is a card with a printing in The List as well, but those are the same price and even more sparse.

Europe has copies a bit cheaper at the moment, starting around $30 with a reasonable number of copies there before you get to $40, but again not a hugely deep supply. There’s a nice bit of arbitrage to be had there, and a good opportunity to pick up cheaper personal copies if you need them. I expect to see prices push up to $50 and maybe higher on the non-foils, and I’d keep an eye out for any cheap foil copies too because they could easily crest $130+ before too long.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Jason Alt, ProTrader

Pro Trader: Minor Players

Readers,

Last week, whether because I went with the Top 4 commanders from the EDH decks or because I picked the face commanders, the result was the same. We looked at Prosper, Galea and Wulfgar and wanted to find cards and couldn’t from Sefris. We may have missed some good picks from the non-face commanders and we’ll get into that today, although the face commanders are still considerably more popular. Now, those cards have been known for longer, but they’re also still being built the most. Let’s look at where things were last week.

Prosper is the top, followed by Sefris, then Galea then Wulfgar. You can read, I know. Since you’re over here knowing stuff, do you think the Top 5 will be the same today as it was a week ago?

It’s close, but a few things happened. Prosper shot up to number 1, which means we’ll want to comb through for Prosper to see if we missed anything. Xanathar tanked, which feels bad to me personally because he’s my favorite commander in the set, but I get it. Vrondiss, a pretty medium-looking commander supplanted Minsc and Boo, a popular (I want to say Baldur’s Gate?) D&D character with a loveable pet, which is a great meme commander but maybe not the most playable? Finally, Klauth moved way up to the second row, which is positive. I don’t know if there is anything new there, but it’s worth a look. The docket for today is Prosper, Vrondiss, Klauth and if there is time, a few others. I have a feeling there is a lot to discuss, however.

First up, we have some news.

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