Watchtower

The Watchtower 02/15/21 – Esika’s Got Me Seeking

Jason did a great article last week on Esika, God of the Tree and some of the best cards that slot into that deck, and it got me taking a look at some other five colour commanders, decks and what kind of cards they like to play. Five colour decks are far from the most popular things to build, but that doesn’t mean that they’re not full of excellent spec targets. Some of the best cards from them are played in the majority of five colour archetypes, and lots will also see play in other decks as well, meaning that despite the relative unpopularity of these decks compared to, say, Simic decks, we can still find some good targets from them.

Cascading Cataracts (Foil)

Price today: $9
Possible price: $20

Although technically not necessarily solely a five colour card, Cascading Cataracts is a perfect utility land for decks trying to produce WUBRG mana or some other wild combination to cast Ultimatums and the like, filtering any number of colours (or colourless) mana into the colour(s) you need. On top of that it’s also indestructible, which is a huge boon at the EDH table when there are Wastelands and Strip Mines running interference in the game. Being taken off one or more of your colours can be a quick path to losing a game of EDH, especially when you’re playing a deck with very stringent mana requirements, and so having something like this in your arsenal can help things out a lot.

Cascading Cataracts has only ever had the single printing in Amonkhet back in 2017, almost four years ago now. It’s the kind of card you’d expect to see reprinted in Commander decks, but we haven’t had it yet and even if (when?) we do, it probably won’t be in foil. This is a card in 11,000 EDH decks on EDHREC and foils are starting to run very thin on the ground. There are only 21 listings left on TCGPlayer with just a few below $10, but I don’t think that those will stick around too much longer. With more five colour cards like Esika coming out in each new set, people will want their foil copies of Cataracts for new and old decks alike, and give it 6-12 months I think that these will be well above $20.

Faeburrow Elder (FEA)

Price today: $30
Possible price: $60

Bloom Tender used to be the only card that had this effect on it, and as such got pretty damn expensive (~$60) before we saw it reprinted in Mystery Booster, with Eventide foils still commanding wild prices over $400. With Throne of Eldraine, Faeburrow Elder gave us a much more accessible avenue to this ability, and as such it’s gained enough popularity to be neck and neck with Bloom Tender in terms of EDHREC numbers, with both cards listed in almost 15k decks.

Even in just a green & white deck Faeburrow Elder is a reasonable card, a 2/2 tapping for two mana, but the more colours you add the better it gets. In five colour decks its ceiling is a three mana 5/5 that makes WUBRG mana for you, which is a super powerful effect that is going to get you going places pretty quickly.

There are a couple of copies of Faeburrow Elder left at $30 on TCGPlayer and a handful below $40, but with a total of 22 listings and no FEA reprint on the horizon, these won’t stay below $40 for much longer. You can still grab some around €25 on MKM but supply isn’t very deep there either, which shows how popular this EDH-only card is, despite Europe’s relative dearth of EDH play.

Chromatic Orrery (FEA)

Price today: $35
Possible price: $60

This card actually surprised me a little, and it just shows that we all misevaluate cards more often than we think. When Chromatic Orrery was previewed for M21, I honestly didn’t think too much of it, mostly because of its seven mana casting cost. Yes, it does give you five mana back right away, but that’s still a big investment that could easily produce very little value if it’s countered or removed right away.

However, around 5000 people seem to disagree with me – and more power to them. This has turned out to be a very popular card in five colour decks, amongst others, and as well as being a big colour-fixing mana rock, it can draw you a bunch of cards too. We’ve already seen Mythic FEAs from M21 like Fiery Emancipation and Terror of the Peaks popping off, and although Chromatic Orrery FEA has stayed pretty high since M21’s release, I think that it’s pretty clear that this will be the next card to go.

There are a grand total of seven NM foils on TCGPlayer, starting at $35 and ramping up quickly. If you have access to the European market then there are still a few under €25 but again, supply is not very deep. If you want any personal or spec copies then snap them up quickly, because I think that these will be over $50 very quickly.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Casual Fridays

When to Buy New Cards

This week I want to address something that I get asked a whole lot: “Should I buy {card from the new set} now, or should I wait?”

This has a semi-complicated answer, and requires you to have done some thinking about the card first. My method is not foolproof, but will get you what you want in almost all cases. Let’s get into the specifics and the pitfalls.

To be clear, this is my process that I apply to newly released cards that are getting a lot of hype. This isn’t about reprinted cards (buy after three months) or Reserved List cards (if it didn’t spike already, it’s a buy) but only about new, in pack cards. This does apply to reprint sets like Double Masters, as well as combination sets like Commander Legends.

The first thing I need you to think about is why you’re buying the cards. Are you going to put it in your cube/Commander/Standard/whatever format deck immediately, or are you buying speculative copies?

If it’s for personal use, I suggest you get your copies within the first two or three weeks. Let the frenzy die down, but wait until people have had the chance to open their personal boxes, the stuff they preordered but couldn’t ship until the official opening day. That time frame is about right for the new things to fall from the preorder prices, but short enough before scarcity starts to pump prices up.

Let’s look at an example from the recent past: Jeweled Lotus in Foil Extended Art.

We had a couple of weeks in there where the price crept down under $400, despite crazy preorders. The immediate frenzy had a chance to die down, and keep in mind that this was one of the rarest cards in packs, needing approximately 400 Collector Boosters to come up with one copy. The second that prices started to go up, and the FOMO kicked in, it went up several hundred more, and frankly, it’s going to keep creeping upward with every copy sold.

Now, this philosophy only applies to the cards that are the most sought after, which isn’t always the rarest version of a card. The other FEA mythics from Commander Legends are exactly as common as the FEA Lotus, but demand plus cachet mean that Soulfire Eruption is $7 as an FEA, when the Jeweled Lotus is $750+.

The card I’m thinking of right now is the foil Phyrexian Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider. Preordering for $400+, it’s dipped under $200 on TCG and there’s a lot under $250.

If you want one for a deck (and you know you do, it’s even better than Doubling Season when it comes to planeswalkers) then I strongly advocate that you do so now. The price is right and I totally sympathize with the desire to get the card right now and put it into the deck (or decks) that want it badly. I think you should go ahead and snap up the Phyrexian foil now, or in the next 1-2 weeks, before the price shoots back up. Too many cards are spiking too hard, and this is the hot card of the moment. Please don’t clever yourself out of what you want.

When picking up cards for speculative purposes, though, I don’t like to acquire the big cards for hopes of gains in the same timeframe. I advocate more patience. The greatest supply on a card is almost always 2-4 months after release, when the next big set comes out. The rest of Commander Legends is in this phase, and there are some excellent deals to be had if you’ve been patient. Yes, a couple of cards spiked back up, like FEA Apex Devastator, but for the most part, prices have dropped back down.

Now, there are potential issues with my plan. In some cases, when you buy your personal copy before the first month is over, it’ll fall farther. This happened to me with the FEA version of Hellkite Courser, an amazing addition to my The Ur-Dragon deck.

I bought a copy the first week for about $35. I should have been more patient, and saved myself $10. It’s come up a little in price from that low point, because FEA mythics were never really in huge supply from this set, but my eagerness cost me a little cash. Not a ruinous amount, but it stings. This is a risk I’m taking on because I just don’t want to wait. I want to have the new cool card in my deck RIGHT NOW!

Just as moving too soon can be a bad thing and cause me to overpay early, moving too late can mean I pay more as well. This is harder to evaluate ahead of time, but it tends to track with how playable a card is in the format it’s aimed at. 

The example here would be Jeska’s Will:

If I’d moved in on the two-week plan, instead of expecting this to hit the lowest point at three months, then I could have made a lot of money in a very short period of time. Many people did, and have made their money, but this is the risk I take in moving too slowly.

One more thing about the distinction between personal copies and spec copies: We don’t tend to worry too much about the cost of the sweet card we put into a Commander deck, at least as it comes to new cards. Is it the version we wanted? Okay, great, get in there and let’s do some work. Commander is the intersection of collecting and playing, with the delicious topping of being able to show off the collection while playing.

When it comes to your personal copies, I’m a strong advocate of getting what you want right away. Don’t mess around trying to save a couple of dollars. Go get what you want, and then enjoy the feeling of that acquisition. You’re gaining value left and right with all the help from our site and our Discord, you deserve to get that sweet card.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: The Gods Must Be (About to go) Crazy (In Price)

Readers!

I love to talk about the most-built deck on EDHREC as a source of potential specs because what could be more ripe for investment than the most popular deck? Like sometimes happens, there has been some jockeying for position and this week, we’re seeing a non-Magda, non-Tergrid commander occupy to the top spot. Is there any money to be made here?

I don’t know how many more of these it makes sense to do because the clock is pretty much ticking on some of these. Orvar stuff I mentioned last week is moving and if all of the obvious stuff from Fynn, the Fangbearer hasn’t popped before next week, I’ll be really surprised. That said, I think there are a few hidden gems we can tease out, so let’s do that thing.

Magda has moved aside to let another 5-color commander through. I wonder how many people who put together these 5-color lists are actually building them. That said, I severely underestimated how powerful Golos was going to be and that was clearly a miscaculation given how popular Golos has become.

I didn’t make any bold proclamations calling it terrible or anything, but I would not have predicted that a deck that could be built so many ways, most of them pretty underwhelming, would eclipse Atraxa. That said, Atraxa is one of the more versatile decks as well, so who knows? What I do know is that 5 color commanders are fun, everyone should have at least one, their mana bases are expensive and Esika lends herself to two very popular builds – Gods and Superfriends. Esika could be the definitive Superfriends deck moving forward, so let’s delve into the deck, shall we?

The great part about a “Gods” deck is you get new Gods from Kaldheim, you get The World Tree and you get cards people forgot were Gods like Ilharg. Esika could just as easily be built with Planeswalkers, or both, so a lot of older, placeholder 5-color decks like Kenrith and Sisay could make the switch, but I expect Esika to generate a lot of new decks as well, given how the deck guides people toward Planeswalkers and Gods in a way that no 5-color commander has quite as much before.

Here is what I think could be in play.

I think cards that are high for inclusion rather than high for synergy are better picks because they’re not specific to this deck. Ordinarily, the high synergy cards are ones that aren’t used much in other decks and therefore are undiscovered cards about to go up super hard because the new deck got them noticed. We’re not going to see anything like that in this deck. Look at the high synergy cards – Kruphix, Iroas, Keranos – not exactly undiscovered gems. They’re not played as much outside of Esika, hence the high synergy score, but if we’re going high synergy, we’re hoping to get in on an early Whim of Volrath type card. If we’re picking a more tried and true card, I think high inclusion is the way to go. Athreos is the most-played creature in the deck and it’s rebounding from a significant price drop after the Mystery Booster printing. I think Athreos is a very good candidate.

If you found that argument persuasive about Athreos, good news, everything I said is also true of Purphoros, and Purphoros is played in a ton of other decks. I think it recovers without Esikia’s help, but Esika WILL help.

A card to watch, therefore, will be Nicol Bolas. The highest-inclusion Planeswalker, Nicol isn’t played a ton outside of these theoretical Esika builds the way an all-star like Purphoros is. If Purphoros goes up a ton and Bolas stays pretty flat, we must have overstated the new demand created by Esika decks. However, I think this could follow a similar trajectory, and with a lower buy-in, I think there is opportunity here.

Sk8r boi said see you l8r boi to $20, but with 2 printings in a year, they’re either going to leave this alone for a while or print it into absolute powder. I think they’re inclined to let it recover a bit, but I’d get in and our rather than hoping for $10 again.

This doesn’t have a TON to do with Esika, but the second this stops dropping (buylist, too) I like these longer term. This does a lot of work in a lot of different EDH decks, and it can replace a lot of cards that only do one of these things in a deck where you could use a card that did all of them. I like this, but I don’t need to buy too early.

That does it for me this week. Esika could be the best 5-color Gods and ‘Walkers deck we’ve seen and while I don’t expect them not to make Esika obsolete in the next year with another pushed 5-color commander, for now, let’s make some money. Until next time!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 02/08/21 – It’s Free Real Estate

Along with the rest of the Reserved List, Dual Land prices are going wild at the moment. Yes, they’re nice to have, but there are so many great alternatives that you could be playing in EDH for a fraction of the price instead. So let’s take a look at a couple of options, shall we?

Rejuvenating Springs et al. (FEA)

Price today: $30
Possible price: $60

The ship has sailed on a fair few of the FEAs from Commander Legends already, but the lands are actually still surprisingly low for how many decks they’re going into. Hullbreachers and Opposition Agent might have them beaten on raw numbers, but by percentage inclusion the five dual lands that complete the Battlebond cycle are still the top five cards from the set on EDHREC. They’re no-brainers no include in your multi-coloured EDH decks, with their only downside being that they don’t have land types (which isn’t enough of a knock against them to really matter).

With FEA rares like Hullbreacher already being well over $100 and Opposition Agent heading that way too, there is no way that $30 is correct for these lands. If we take a look at stock levels, there are only 15 listings for Rejuvenating Springs on TCGPlayer, with that being only 18 total copies. There are only a few copies below $40 and the ramp is steep, so if you want any personal or spec copies then the best time to pick them up was yesterday and the second best time is now.

I think that all of these lands are great pickups and will cruise over $50 with no problem, especially without any more supply of Commander Legends Collector Boosters on the horizon. Give it just a couple of months without fresh supply and I think these are easily $50-60 cards.

Ketria Triome et al. (Showcase)

Price today:$10
Possible price: $20

Mamma mia, here I go again…my my, how are these still sub $10?

I’m being entirely serious here – all five of the Triomes from Ikoria remain the most popular EDH cards from the set and although we may well see the regular versions reprinted at some point in Commander decks, I don’t think that we’ll see the Showcase variant for a while yet. These are absurdly good lands in 3+ colours EDH decks due to having basic land types as well as cycling strapped onto them. They’re fetchable, good early game and cantrip late game, and the numbers don’t lie (all five lands at 9k+ decks).

On top of their EDH popularity, a couple of the Triomes also see a good amount of competitive play in Pioneer and Modern, most notably Ketria and Raugrin Triome. The showcase foils are already drying up and will be looking to post over $50 within 6 months, and they’ll be dragging the non-foils up with them. There are still copies of all five Triomes available around or under $10 at the moment, and given 6-12 months I think they’re all $20+ cards. The art is gorgeous and they’re an excellent alternative for people that want fancy lands without having to fork out for the foils, or just don’t like foils.

Minamo, School at Water’s Edge (MB Foil)

Price today: $10
Possible price: $30

Ok, this doesn’t really help fix your mana but it’s still a great land to be playing in EDH. Mystery Booster is coming up on a year old now, and the foils from the set have been draining out. Original Minamo NM foils from Champions of Kamigawa basically don’t exist, with only four listings on TCGPlayer all around $70. The Mystery Booster foils, on the other hand, are still sat around $10 – but supply won’t last too much longer and I don’t think there’s much more supply inbound.

At nearly 8000 recorded decks on EDHREC this is a relatively popular EDH card, and has seen a modicum of competitive play but that’s not really a driving factor for this card. We may well see a Mystery Booster 2 set, but I doubt we’ll see this again there and I really don’t see where it could be reprinted in foil again any time soon. Supply will keep slowly draining and prices will keep moving upwards, so I like picking up a few of these to sit on for 6-12 months and double or triple up.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

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