City of Traders: WMC Review

ADVERTISEMENT:


Another weekend, another major Magic event. This time around, it was the World Magic Championship. I was rooting hard for Reid Duke, and I’m nearly positive I was more upset at the Engineered Explosives in Shahar’s opening 7 in game 5 than Reid was. Still though, it was a great finals with plenty of tense moments. Many (PVDDR) were dismissing the match due to Aura’s perceived lack of interactivity, complaining it would be boring to watch. What we were treated to instead was an exciting match between two skilled players, with a lot of drama in what draw steps would herald and whether Shahar could win the race. My biggest complaint, beyond Reid not winning, is that he reminded everyone that Auras exists, a deck I was planning on playing at GP Detroit. Back to the drawing board, I suppose.

My first impression while reading through the Standard lists was just how boring they are. When players work together in a team prior to a major event like a Pro Tour, it’s good for everybody involved. They do great jobs of finding the best decks, and we get to see the real power in whatever format they’re playing. There are a lot of Pro Tour players that aren’t in pro superteams though, which leads to a lot more variety of brews (good and bad) showing up. At the WMC however, there are only 16 players. A team of 5 people consists of nearly a third of the room. The result of the players forming these teams was a homogenization of the event: there were five Jund decks and eight UWR Flash decks in the Standard portion. That means a little over 80% of the room was playing one of two decks. That makes for a very bland looking Standard scene, regardless of whether the true format is more diverse. Even Jon Finkel noticed, taking to Twitter to vent his frustration about how Wizards had seemingly phased out many unique deck types such as combo, land destruction, hand disruption, true control, etc.

Financially, basically nothing came out of the Standard portion. It served only to reinforce the staples: Sphinx’s Revelation, Supreme Verdict, Jace, Scavenging Ooze, etc. I don’t think we’re going to see much of anything new or noteworthy in considerable competitive play until rotation. I’m guessing it will mostly be a lot of tweaking of existing archetypes. Brian’s GR beatdown deck was the only Standard deck that was a departure from the norm, but all the financially-relevant cards are already known suspects, so there isn’t much to work with there either.

The more actionable data was found in the Modern portion of the event. The most significant finding was the prevalence of Scavenging Ooze. A full 22 showed up between maindecks and sideboards, which is about 33% of the maximum amount of Oozes that could have appeared. You’ll remember that a few weeks ago I told you how good Ooze would be in Modern. I don’t expect this to be a passing fad either. SCG has jumped their buy price to $12.50, and is currently sold out at $25. The Ooze is here to stay, so get used to it. The ramifications of this will be widespread. One impact will be just making it tougher and tougher for graveyard strategies in Modern. 4x Deathrite Shaman and 4x Scavenging Ooze is going to be the start of so many decks in Modern that showing up with Vengevine, Demigod of Revenge, Life from the Loam, or really anything with considerable graveyard interaction is just asking to 0-3 drop and get food.

Aside: Keep your eye out for any card that gets printed to help protect your graveyard. Think along the lines of a bear that while in your graveyard gives the whole thing hexproof or some such. Wizards may realize they’ve pushed too hard on graveyard hate, and not wanting to blank so many cool cards, may provide some resources for those types of decks. This type of card, if properly powerful, could quickly become a strong card in both Modern and Legacy, but would likely not carry a high price tag during prerelease season.

ADVERTISEMENT:


Other than Scavenging Ooze, I really like Horizon Canopy right now. The card is a fantastic land for any deck that wants to make green and white mana as well as attack. It’s a land that makes both of your colors right away, it helps combat mana flood, it’s used in Legacy, and it’s a Future Sight rare. Grove of the Burnwillows had a second printing, is arguably not as good, and is still $20. The rares in that set have proven that they are completely capable of going wild, and staying there. Case in point:

Daybreak Coronet. Aug 2012 - Jul 2013.
Daybreak Coronet. Aug 2012 – Jul 2013.

Horizon Canopy has been ticking up slowly for quite some time, currently at about $14-15. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it jump like Chord of Calling did at some point. $35+ may be a stretch, but $25+ seems plausible. There’s a very small chance we’ll see it in Theros, but if we don’t I expect it to rise the closer we get to Modern season. What makes this particularly safe is that even if it is printed in Theros, it would be with a Modern border. The unique Future Sight border will help the card maintain value even in the face of a reprint. I particularly like Horizon Canopy foils, which could easily be $70-$100+ with a jump.

Financially, the most important but least-discussed piece of information (so far) is the change in the PTQ schedule. Previously, it was Modern at the start of the year, then Standard over the summer, and finally Limited in the fall. Now however, we have this schedule:

PTQ_seasons

ADVERTISEMENT:


What this means is that starting at the end of this year and through spring of 2014, it will be Standard instead of Modern. Then through late spring and early summer we’ll have Sealed, and Modern doesn’t show up until early summer, where we’ll have it for 11 weeks. Finally the year will finish up with Sealed again through late fall.

The first major change to consider is the delay of the Modern PTQ season. Originally, we all expected it to start around January 1st or so. This meant that between now and the start of the season, we only had to worry about what was in Theros and the Commander product this November, as well as perhaps any spoilers that slipped out ahead of time. Now though, Modern doesn’t start until June of next year. That is a long ways away, with the entire Theros block being released in the interim, M15 spoilers will be close at hand, and most germane, spoilers of summer product will be available. In fact, do you recognize the date of June 7th from anything else? The Modern Masters release date was June 7th, 2013. The Modern PTQ season begins exactly one year later. This is no coincidence. I bet dollars to doughnuts that we will have or at least will have heard of another Modern supplemental product by then.

The obvious impact of this is that our Modern holds are far more tenuous than they were before. Whereas Fetchlands were an absolute hold before, that is much more in question now. There is a lot of time and a lot of product to go before the PTQ season finally rolls around, and a lot of opportunities for the lands to be printed again. Wizards isn’t going to be turning a blind eye to the most prevalent lands in the format being this expensive. They have shown an eagerness to go after high-value Modern staples already. The rise in price of Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant was a byproduct of Wizards printing too few boxes, a move they have already explained was meant to be overly cautious. I do not expect them to be quite so prudent next time. They now have the data in front of them, and they can more accurately gauge how many boxes they should print of any future Modern product.

Hint: it’s going to be more.

The question then becomes what to do with our Modern holdings. To be perfectly honest with you, I’m still a bit undecided. I’m not rushing out to sell them today, as the threat of additional copies won’t begin to creep up until after the first of the year. It’s really next spring we need to worry about. At this juncture, I am planning on holding until after the first with the calculated risk that they likely won’t go down by then, and have the chance to climb a few more dollars. I’ll probably ditch them in January though, happy to take my profits and unwilling to brave whatever spoilers the spring months may bring. It’s entirely possible the Fetchlands don’t see another printing cycle before the next PTQ season and they all hit $70+, but I’d much rather get out at $30-50 each in January rather than have them show up in MM2 and sell at $20 in July.

The other slightly less drastic result of this schedule change is that there is no longer a Standard PTQ season to keep rotating staples afloat over the summer. Once March 9th rolls around, Ravnica-block Standard staples will quickly begin to decline as PTQ grinders sell off their copies that they no longer need, whereas in the past they would have held them right through till rotation. Expect Standard prices to deflate sooner and faster this coming year than they have in the past.

Two last parting tips this week: Fellow financially-minded writer Corbin Hosler (@chosler88) pointed out on Monday that Shadow of Doubt has quadrupled in the last several months. As an original Ravnica block rare, it could easily climb to $10. The card also has hybrid mana, making it tough to print outside of supplemental product. If you can grab these under $4, they seem quite safe.

Shadow of Doubt. Jan-Jul 2013.
Shadow of Doubt. Jan-Jul 2013.

 And finally, Sen Triplets. This card is now pushing $14. Did you know that?

Sen Triplets. Jan 2012-Jul 2013.
Sen Triplets. Jan 2012-Jul 2013.
Track your collection's value over time, see which cards moved the most, track wishlists, tradelists and more. Sign up at MTGPrice.com - it's free!

ADVERTISEMENT:


Trading Strategies for Events

By Cliff Daigle

Large-scale Magic events offer the chance to get a lot done without spending lots of money.

At every large tournament I go to – be it a Pro Tour Qualifier, a Grand Prix, or something really huge, like Gen Con or SDCC – I bring the cards I want to sell, and a list of things I want.

Depending on the size of the event, organization is key. At a Pro Tour Qualifier, you’ll get a couple of vendors and comparing buylists is easy. Most vendors will have a buylist printed out that you can use to compare those numbers. But at larger events, there might be a dozen or more different companies who want your business, and you need to be ready to browse. A list of the things you brought to sell is vital, and if you’re looking for a certain card, then it’s important to know if you’re going for cash or credit.

ADVERTISEMENT:


Different vendors give different amounts for the same card, and different trade bonuses if you want store credit. But even on a 30% bonus for credit, you’re still under retail value of a card, so don’t do this lightly. I’ve done this to get some sweet cards and finish foiling out decks, but I’m not happy about it.

A more recent trend is the rapidly growing market for Magic accessories, like playmats, dice, and life counters. Not every vendor is into those things, but research and preparation is going to pay off. You’d be surprised how many vendors are going to offer you cash for things as common as a spin down D20. Before Grand Prix Anaheim, Star City Games put up a banner saying that they were buying spindowns. A little research and a lot of contacts with my friends, and I ended up selling SCG about $100 (cash, not credit!) worth of dice.

The main event may or may not be right up your alley, but the side events offer a range of formats and pricing. While I do not advocate buying single packs just for the value of the cards inside, I love drafting. Sealed is fun too, but drafting is second only to EDH in my personal pantheon. I have gone to Grand Prix just to enter side draft after side draft. I’m paying for the tournament, not just the packs, and in some drafts, I’ll get passed valuable cards.

Sometimes the value is in the event itself. When my wife and I went to Worlds in 2011, they were giving out a Pro Tour foil Ajani Goldmane with every event entry. Dealers were only giving $3 cash, but in a $10 draft, you’re paying $7 to open three packs. That’s hard value to walk away from, especially since that was Innistrad.

Once you’re done drafting, you can take the good cards and trade them to players or dealers for more of what you really want. Again, an example from Worlds: I did ten drafts that weekend, and had a Liliana of the Veil, a couple Garruk Relentless, a Snapcaster, and a few of the rare Innistrad lands. I traded all of those to a dealer for a Diamond Valley and could not be happier.

Be advised that there is often a saturation effect, especially with smaller vendors: At the end of a three-day Grand Prix, some will be lower on cash and already bought a thousand Steam Vents, so they will lower their buylist on the one you just opened.

I’m preparing to go to GP Oakland next month, and I’ve got my lists ready to go. If you’re there and want an EDH game, shoot me a tweet @WordOfCommander. I’d love to get in a game with you.

City of Traders: RTR Pickups

By Travis Allen

A few days ago the most recent SCG invitational wrapped up, the winner – my buddy Erik Smith – piloting Jund and UWR in Standard and Legacy respectively. This is a great chance to see how M14 is doing in finding its place in the format. An invitational is the type of event players are definitely going to be testing and brewing new decks for, which is more work than any given SCG open will typically see.

While Jund may have won, the top 8 Standard lists were 8 separate archetypes. That’s a lot of diversity, and a lot of potential different M14 cards. After skimming through the lists and doing some quick napkin math though, it looks like fewer than 10 or so unique cards from M14 showed up, and roughly 5% of the top 8 lists were M14. That is a pretty minor impact, given that it is one of eight legal sets, or about 12.5% of the format. Scavenging Ooze may have made a huge impact in the way things play out, but there were only about 10 copies across the top 8. What this tells me is that nobody has figured out exactly how these cards fit in yet, and, more interestingly, a lot of the power in the set is hard to find with so many other cards out there at the moment.

I have a feeling that in September we’re going to see a large surge of M14 cards in Standard. There won’t be so many other powerful effects and synergies muscling not-quite-good-enough cards out of the way. This will bode very well for the price of several M14 cards. Pay close attention to what cards seem like they’re almost playable, because if they are, there’s a good chance they will see a solid jump in the fall.

One more thought I had regarding this fall is regarding deck viability. Right now we’re working on the assumption that we will see five or ten manlands in Theros. Assuming that is the case, the mana for the new Standard is, quite honestly, going to suck. At least, it will for any deck trying to be aggressive. Imagine a GW beats deck. You get 4 Temple Garden, then uh…4 Stirring Wildwood? That’s hardly aggressive. 4 Guildgates? Assuming we do in fact get manlands, Mono Red is probably going to be the only stable aggressive deck. This means lots of midrangey and control lists. Cards that may be a little too slow right now, like Advent of the Wurm, may become a lot stronger if people aren’t trying to kill you on turn 3 with Burning-Tree Emissarys.

Stepping back from the fall at the moment, this point in Magic’s lifecycle is a very good time to turn our gaze backwards at what will be the older brother of Standard. M14 just became legal and Theros spoilers are on the tongues of young mages everywhere, while Ravnica block languishes as old news. This is good for us though, because cards that will be major players in a new format are typically at their lowest right now. This gives us a lot of potential profit if we can turn our attention away from the exciting new cards for a few minutes.

These are all cards that caught my eye when browsing the set lists. There’s a lot of room for a lot of growth in here. At least one of these cards will probably grow by 400-700%, so there’s great value in here if you figure out the right card(s). 

Supreme Verdict
Supreme Verdict was the sweeper of choice at the RTR Block Pro Tour, putting 19 copies into the top 8. That is a lot of dead creatures. It’s also the best and only really good sweeper in the RTR block. It sees play frequently in Standard, with most decks that want at least one likely wanting four between maindeck and sideboard. At any given Standard event I would guess roughly 5-10% and occasionally more of the decks in the room have this card in their 75. In addition to being a staple in Standard, both Modern and Legacy have proven receptive to its presence, where the can’t-be-countered clause has been preferred over the can’t-regenerate clause of the O.G. WOG. Terminus was at the exact same price point at this time in that card’s life, and shortly after rotation it jumped to $10+. Supreme Verdict was a buy-a-box promo, but that was hardly printed in enough numbers to have a serious impact on quantity.

Jace, Architect of Thought
Like Supreme Verdict, this card was all over the Top 8 of the Block Pro Tour. Control mirrors hinged on this card and Sphinx’s Revelation, and Jace simultaneously did a great job of blunting aggressive strategies as well. Jace was a defining card of the PT, and there’s no reason to expect it to behave any differently after rotation. It bottomed out early this summer around $10, and has started to climb back towards $13. This is only the beginning, though. $20 is almost guaranteed again within the next year, and if it shows up as a 4-of in several Top 8 lists of an early Theros event, $30+ is conceivable. There is basically no possible way to lose when picking this card up sub-$15.

Lotleth Troll
This card is probably the most mispriced card on this list at the moment. It shows up semi-frequently in Standard, providing a semi-evasive (trample is evasion) regenerating threat that enables graveyard shenanigans. Lotleth Troll is in a good tribe, and he (it?) has shown to be playable in both Modern and Legacy as well. This card may take longer to realize his price potential than others, but I have no doubt that he’ll be well north of $10 eventually. (Disclaimer: this could take a few years.)

Worldspine Wurm
I’m stating right off the bat that Wurm isn’t here because I think he’s part of some absurd combo with the new Garruk, so don’t dismiss me out of hand. Rather, he’s a huge, splashy, powerful creature that EDH and casual players alike are drawn to. Remember that Khalni Hydra is currently $7. He’s not going to be lighting up the tournament scene, but he’s a very safe bet at $1 in trade.

Armada Wurm
I’m currently seeing copies under $3 on TCG Player, which seems crazy to me. Everyone remembers that this is 10 trampling power for 6 mana, right? Even better, half of the card is a token. That means the potential for token abuse is there, but he’s still doesn’t get completely blown out by Ratchet Bomb. This card feels like it’s right on the cusp to me. It may not happen immediately, but I can’t imagine this not becoming a major part of the Standard scene, even temporarily, within the next year.

Gyre Sage
Another member of the dollar-and-change brigade, this seems like it could very easily live at $4-7. If any sort of Simic/BUG evolve/token/hydra list appears, this is probably part of it. I wouldn’t go super deep, but I definitely like it at $1-2.

Aurelia’s Fury
Remember the hype around this card when it was previewed? It was preselling for well over $20, and has now cratered to sub-$3. There hasn’t been a single noteworthy performance of the card since it was released. However, the card is still a Swiss army knife in that there isn’t really anything it doesn’t do. I don’t think we’ll get through the next year without this making at least a brief appearance and accompanying spike.

Master Biomancer
Similar to Aurelia’s Fury, Master Biomancer was preordering for quite a bit, then did nothing upon release. However it took its sweet time dropping in price, and it only semi-recently made it under $5. The slow descent of this card’s value, as well as its current price tag despite no tournament play, is a testament to the demand for it in casual circles. It has the potential to show up in Standard and skyrocket, and even if it doesn’t, you’ll win in the long term with this casual all-star.

Prime Speaker Zegana
Currently under $3, this may prove to be one of the best card drawing spells post-rotation. Sphinx’s Revelation is probably better overall, but a deck with more presence on the battlefield that wants to commit threats while drawing cards is probably going to be more interested in Zegana rather than Revelation. She’s a home run in EDH as well, so her floor can’t be too much lower. I can’t promise she’ll get there, but $15+ seems very plausible.

Scion of Vitu-Ghazi
This card’s trajectory depends heavily on Advent of the Wurm, and to a lesser extent, Armada Wurm. Remember that Cloudgoat Ranger saw a respectable amount of play in Standard back in the Lorwyn era, and for the decks that would want Scion now, it’s better than Cloudgoat would be. Flashing down an Advent at the end of your opponent’s turn and then untapping and slamming this guy is a lot of power very fast. It will never be more than a few dollars, but at $.20, you don’t have much to lose.

Advent of the Wurm
Late in development, this card was a Mythic, and for good reason. A 5/5 trampling flash for four is aggressively costed, and being a token is usually better than not. Currently under/around $4, this guy is slightly riskier. The floor on him is definitely low – under $1. The reason he’s at the price he is regardless of seeing no play in Standard is a product of expectations, which are based partially on Advent’s status as a 4-of in the PT-winning deck, and based partially on the card’s oracle text. I won’t lie, I think it’s possible to lose on this card. However, I think it’s far more likely that this becomes a real contender in Standard, and easily breaks $10.

Plasm Capture
Mana Drain redux, this is currently under $1. This is one of those cards that I think has a reasonable chance of showing up in Standard, but even if it doesn’t, you’ll still down the road as it appreciates simply for being awesome in EDH/casual circles.

Progenitor Mimic
This, like Master Biomancer, took a slow winding path to sub-$5, and even then only recently sunk that low. I put this in the same camp as Master Biomancer in terms of future value, as well. It’s completely capable of becoming awesome in Standard, and even if it doesn’t, you’ll still do just fine in the long term.

Exava, Rakdos Blood Witch
Every year, a red four-drop skyrockets in price. Hero of Oxid Ridge started the trend, and since then, we’ve seen Falkenrath Aristocrat and Hellrider do the same. Right now, the best candidates for this are Exava and Ogre Battledriver. Exava was in the intro deck, so she’s capped at a few dollars, but so was Wolfir Silverheart, and he hit $9.

Deadbridge Chant
Currently about $2, this has seen a reasonable amount of fringe play in Standard since release. If the format moves more towards midrange and control once Theros releases, as I expect it to, this card’s stock only rises. It generates fantastic value in an attrition mirror, and is typically better than just “draw a card” due to it occasionally being a huge mana advantage as well as enabling graveyard shenanigans. It’s also an enchantment, which we may be very interested in down the road. This card could easily be $5 or so if not more while in Standard, and even if it goes nowhere this coming season, I think $1.50 or so is probably the floor, so it’s quite safe to get in on.

The Singular Art of Patience

By Cliff Daigle

Welcome back, dear reader.

If you have read other things I’ve said then you’re aware of my driving principle when it comes to acquiring cards for casual decks: Patience.

If you have ever bought something online, you’re aware of the value of patience. Next-day shipping from a retail website might be $25, while mere First-Class mail is $5 or less. To be patient, for just a couple of days to a week, in this case is worth a cool $20.

I’ve been in positions where I could not bring myself to be patient. I once had to have some Goblins in a couple of days because I wanted a Krenko deck to be ready for FNM. The shipping costs of my cards were more than the cards themselves were worth. But in that case, it was worth it to me not to wait.

Retail stores work the same way. Sure, you can often get a lower price for an item online, but when you measure the cost difference against the time difference, sometimes you just take it home that day.

Magic: The Gathering cards are similar. I’ve said before that prices all drop over time, but that’s only on average. Sometimes, waiting on a card to go down is a bad play, because the price goes up. Just look at Voice of Resurgence:

Voice of Resurgence. May 3 2013 - Jul 25 2013.
Voice of Resurgence. May 3 2013 – Jul 25 2013.

The Voice’s price has climbed steadily, and is the chase Mythic. Right now, preordering it at $20 looks like a steal. But note that the price has hit a peak and is creeping downwards. Patience past the initial craze has already paid off some.

Now, let’s look at Ral Zarek:

Ral Zarek. May 3 2013 - Jul 25 2013.
Ral Zarek. May 3 2013 – Jul 25 2013.

If you waited a week after release, he cost you $30. If you waited a month, he cost you $15. If you wait longer, he’ll probably go under $10. Patience is usually the better financial plan, if you can stomach the wait.

When you’re trading, patience is a key virtue as well. I love trading, the knowledge that both of us can get what we want and be happy with the exchange. Unfortunately, there are times where someone is belligerent, telling me what I have to do. If they have a rare foil, I’m not above giving more than I originally wanted, but if we are talking Standard cards, then I’m likely to walk away.

An example of this is dealing with speculators. You might be someone who traded for a bunch of a certain card because you were sure it was going to go up. I’ve dealt with people who act like their card has already gone up or down to an expected price, and that was irritating until I realized I could just walk away. (Excerpt from the conversation: “Your Sphinx’s Revelation is not going to be worth my two Deathrite Shamans after rotation.” “Rotation for these two cards is 18 months away!” “I know, that’s my point.”)

Let me be clear: I’m all for speculation. I like the gamble, the idea that we can predict these things. But dealing with unpleasant people is generally not worth it.

Patience, in the casual realm, is also about managing your needs and expectations. It’s not always useful to go after a card in foil just because it’s in a deck. (Full disclosure: I chase foreign foils more than I should for my EDH decks. I try not to overpay, but the craving to own the sweet rare foil is strong. Gogo Foil Russian Doubling Season! (сезон удвоения foil))

Nor is it necessary to chase a foreign foil simply because it has worth. Keep in mind that Wizards wants to support all formats, not just Standard and Modern. The more people that play, whatever the format, the more cards they sell.

This is why reprints will require patience. It seems a safe bet that almost everything not on the Reserved List will get printed again. I couldn’t say when, but especially for Modern-legal cards, nothing is safe. The use of Modern Masters, as well as preconstructed decks like the Commander or Planechase sets, shows us that Wizards knows that people want these older, rarer, more expensive cards.

The Onslaught fetchlands, Thoughtseize, the Shadowmoor filter lands, even Force of Will…these will all get printed again. Perhaps not in Standard-legal sets, but there will be more.

Just be patient.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING BLOG, ARTICLES, AND COMMUNITY

RSS
Facebook
Facebook
Google+
http://blog.mtgprice.com/page/394/">