Monthly Archives: March 2017

Casual Fridays, ProTrader

Invocation Predictions (Part 1)

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The Masterpieces are here! In Amonkhet, they are known as Invocations this time around. I have some beef with some specific choices for this special set, but I see what their goal was. Wizards wanted to give us a 3-D effect and something that was visually very different, and they got that. I don’t like the unreadable card name, and I think there’s a lot of spell bubbles, but I’m not an art critic. I’m a casual player and someone addicted to foils, but this design doesn’t have to be for me.

Even if you don’t like the look of these cards, these are valuable. Even the least of these will be worth about the same as the most expensive mythic, barring the very unforeseen.

This week, I want to look at these current prices and see where they will probably end up, price-wise. The preorder price is an amalgamation, between some sites, and eBay sales aren’t up yet.

 

Aggravated Assault – Original: $12, Set foil: $28, Preorder: $30 – If you like this you’re going to pay a little bit more, and that makes sense. I don’t think the demand is very high for this card, though. It’s rare that you activate this more than once, even if you’re a Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder player. This card doubled when his deck was released and hasn’t been printed since Onslaught.

Prediction: I think $30 is a perfect price here. It’s on par with the set foil, which lots of people find appealing.

Attrition – $9, $40, Preorder $35 – I want to like this. I really do. Attrition works so well with a number of casual strategies (Meren, tokens, Karador) and this has potential. It’s popular enough that I think the price is going to creep upward but not a lot.

Prediction: At the end, it’ll be about $45.

 

Austere Command – $12, $35, Preorder $50 – Lorwyn and original Commander are the only printings, and I think this price reflects the appropriate demand and the semi-small supply. It’s not played outside Commander and Cube, but it’s nicely flexible and worth playing in most casual decks.

Prediction: This is going to fall to about the same price as the set foil. It’s not pretty enough to be worth upgrading to if you already have a foil.

 

Aven Mindcensor – $8, $53, Preorder $45 – We’ve had it spoiled that this is going to be a rare in Amonkhet, so that $8 isn’t going to last. It’s not widely played in Modern or Legacy, though it does pop up in sideboards. It needs to be said that the frame is going to play a big part, as those who like the Future Sight frame REALLY LOVE that frame and I don’t see the pack foil budging in price.

Prediction: The Invocation version will fall by a few bucks, but not terribly far.

 

Chain Lightning – $11, $3/$6 Eternal Masters, $6 for PDS foil, Preorder: $40 – This seems super duper and incredibly way off. This is played in one deck, Legacy Burn, and while it’s a four-of it’s not usually the market for these promo versions.

Prediction: This falls like a rock. It should drop down to the $20 range, which would be 3x the price of foils available. Ouch.

 

Consecrated Sphinx – $20, $60, Preorder: $50 – The card is bonkers insane in any format where it survives being cast and not being killed before the next draw step. There’s precious few cards that will get you attacked to death faster, and the single printing is why the price is so high.

Prediction: Against all my instincts, I think this is going to go up. It’s the only Sphinx so far in the Invocation set, and I think there will be enough casual players who want this to let it creep up by $10-$15 or so.

 

Containment Priest – $15, Preorder: $75 – This sees a small amount of play in Legacy and Vintage, and with no other choices for making unique versions of the card, I’m expecting big things out of this foil. That said, this is a 5x multiplier, and I think that’s just too high.

Prediction: This ends up at $50-$60, there’s just not enough demand, even though its only printing was a Commander precon three years ago.

 

Counterbalance – $20, $115, Preorder: $65 – This is in demand because of the power it offers in formats where Sensei’s Divining Top is legal. I rarely see this in Commander, and its power in Cube is debatable. A foil multiplier of 6 is fascinating, though, and speaks to the income and the four-of nature of this card.

Prediction: I think this has room to fall. The pack foil is far superior in appearance, but those who want this will be few and far between. I expect this to land at $40-$50.

 

Counterspell – $1-$175 for nonfoils, $6-$32 for foils, Preorder: $60 – The Invocation version is the 25th entry we will have for this card, including the foil versions. You have a wide variety of art to choose from, and can go all the way back to being an Alpha rare. You can choose an FNM promo, or a Judge Foil, or a selection of special printings.

Prediction: I think this falls to $40 or under. Yes, Commanders and Cubes play this, but there’s rarer and older versions to chase.

 

Cryptic Command – $26-$30, $35-$110 foil, Preorder: $90 – The Lorwyn foil is way up there as the original foil, but the Modern Masters foils are intriguingly cheap. This is a great and powerful and often-played card, so I think it’ll have a premium.

Prediction: This version of the card will be bought in playsets, and supply will never have a chance to get too big. This will settle in the $75 range, bridging the gaps nicely.

 

Dark Ritual – $0.50-$80, $4-$53 foil, Preorder: $50 – I shouldn’t need to tell you that this is either a four-of or not played at all. You’re either desperate for the mana or you pay full price. I do love versions where this has the card type ‘Mana Source’ though.

Prediction: Those who want this will also be buying the full playset, but there are so few of those decks. The demand is low, as evidenced by the complete disregard by the market for the FTV version, so I think this will fall to about $30-$35.
Next week I’ll come back with the rest. Stay tuned!

Rachel Agnes, The Collector

That’s so Fetch

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Welcome to the first in our bi-weekly series aimed at cataloging the most important collectibles in Magic, The Collector – Editor.

Hello everyone!

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Rachel and I am a diehard collector of Magic: The Gathering cards. I play a variety of formats ranging from EDH and Cube all the way to Vintage and Modern. My immense passion and love for the game is multifaceted. I love playing competitively as well as enjoying the artwork and the financial side of cards. Here on Mtgprice.com I will delve into the world of beautiful Magic cards and focus on the many great looking and rare upgrades you can make on your cards. I will discuss everything from ideal choices to pimp out your decks as well as cheap ways and best times to purchase those cards. I hope you enjoy the ride. It’s gonna be a roller coaster.

Upgrading your decks to their most perfect form is more of a journey than a source of instant gratification. You could call it an expedition <ahem>. Most of us don’t possess an exorbitantly large amount of capital to simply purchase every judge foil or text-less promo we see or want. So while we may be eager to acquire nicer cards, we want to do so to maximize our dollar and acquire at opportune times.

I’m tackling the fetchlands today because they are in an interesting place right now. Enemy color fetchands were recently reprinted in Modern Masters 2017, so they are currently at center stage again and many of us are looking to get in on some foils while the getting is good. An important note on fetchlands is that Wizards has not been kind to collectors with them because of uneven cycles and mismatching borders. This can make picking the ideal upgrade difficult, especially if you have very particular tastes.

The manabase is often the first, and most expensive, thing people aim to upgrade along their journey to beautify their deck, and fetchlands are some of the most important and flexible lands in your collection. They are a high priority in Vintage, Legacy, Modern, Commander, and Cube and as such, are extremely coveted in their rarer forms.

Naturally, as with upgrading many things in life, it always comes down to personal preference. Some people enjoy foil cards and some prefer old border or foreign. And the specifics break down even further. Promo foils, old border foils, pack foils, judge foils, foreign foils, foils with better artwork, rarity, price, the list goes on and on. Which version of a card you want primarily comes down to what you as an individual prefers and finds pleasing to the eye.

That being said, I certainly have my favorite ways to upgrade my cards and will be providing a hot list (in order) to show you how it all breaks down.

6) Khans of Tarkir Foil (2014)

These are the lowest foils on the totem pole for allied colored fetchlands. Not only are they the cheapest foils you can get, I also dislike their extremely digital artwork. The dragon-tied theme doesn’t have a matching version for the other 5 and the watermark is unwelcome. One positive note on these is the fact that you can get them in Russian and Korean, where the price shoots through the roof. Onslaught does not have Korean or Russian options, so this is ideal for someone who wants a uniform foreign language. These prices are relatively low and without any other reprint they would see an increase over time. However, I believe that Wizards will continue to print fetchlands over and over and it’s only a matter of time before we see them as frequently as commander products. For this reason, I wouldn’t suspect much of an increase in price here over years.

Khans of Tarkir Foreign Foil (2014)

  • Bloodstained Mire (Japanese) ~$60.00
  • Flooded Strand (Japanese) ~$100.00
  • Polluted Delta (Japanese) ~$110.00
  • Windswept Heath (Japanese) ~$55.00
  • Wooded Foothills (Japanese) ~$65.00
  • Bloodstained Mire (Korean) ~$150.00
  • Flooded Strand (Korean) ~$250.00
  • Polluted Delta (Korean) ~$400.00
  • Windswept Heath (Korean) ~$110.00
  • Wooded Foothills (Korean) ~$140.00
  • Bloodstained Mire (Russian) ~$180.00
  • Flooded Strand (Russian) ~$250.00
  • Polluted Delta (Russian) ~$720.00
  • Windswept Heath (Russian) ~$220.00
  • Wooded Foothills (Russian) ~$220.00

Prices for many foreign foils fluctuate and the above are very rough estimates but it gives a good idea into the price difference between English and the rest. The universally more expensive languages are Japanese, Korean, and Russian almost always commanding a higher price than their English counterparts. Because Zendikar fetchlands have these languages available as well, if these languages appeal to you, Khans of Tarkir may be the way to go.

5) Modern Masters 2017 Foils (2017)

  • Arid Mesa $47.00
  • Marsh Flats $37.00
  • Misty Rainforest $54.00
  • Scalding Tarn $74.00
  • Verdant Catacombs $62.00

These are by far the cheapest foil versions available for the enemy colored fetchlands. I dislike the watermark here as well, and because they keep the same artwork as the Zendikar printing I prefer those over these. The frame is also different but at least this is uniform with the Khans cycle. They are new and cheap now, but again I believe we are going to see more reprints of the fetchlands over the years. Seeing as this is the second time this artwork has been printed and possibly not the last I do not suspect these prices to creep up very high over the years. These do not come in Russian or Korean and because of how recently released this set is, the Japanese foil prices aren’t stable enough yet to discuss.

4) Zendikar Foil (2009)

This is the original printing for the enemy colored fetchlands. While the artwork looks very digital and, to me, inferior to the Onslaught artwork, they have grown on me. These do not have the ugly watermark the Modern Masters version has, but they are significantly more expensive. The Zendikar fetchlands are also noticeably less shiny than the KTK, Expedition, and Judge versions. They do not come in Korean but they do come in Japanese and Russian, with the latter commanding the most expensive price tag of all enemy fetchlands.

Zendikar Foreign Foil (2009)

  • Arid Mesa (Japanese) ~$130.00
  • Marsh Flats (Japanese) ~$120.00
  • Misty Rainforest (Japanese) ~$250.00
  • Scalding Tarn (Japanese) ~$300.00
  • Verdant Catacombs (Japanese) ~$175.00
  • Arid Mesa (Russian) ~$350.00
  • Marsh Flats (Russian) ~$325.00
  • Misty Rainforest (Russian) ~$1000.00
  • Scalding Tarn (Russian) ~$1250.00
  • Verdant Catacombs (Russian) ~$800.00

The prices are crazy for foreign Russian foils. Russian foil fetchlands don’t move hands in large amounts often so it can be hard to pinpoint exact prices. Just know that it is quite hard to track them down and you need a small fortune to even get a one-of set, let alone if you aim for a playset. If you sit down with some Russian Foil Zendikar fetchlands the only words to describe it are “opulence” and “beauty.”

As far as pricing goes, the English versions are significantly more expensive than the Modern Masters printing despite sharing the same artwork. Historically, sharing the same artwork and even similar frame has led the original version to depreciate over time and I feel the same thing will happen in this instance. I believe it is time to show patience with the Zendikar foil printing and wait until a price drop to pick them up.

3) Judge Foil (2009)

Judge foil lands are gorgeous. They are hard to find and certainly show dedication as you do have to search them out. They are the only fetchlands that cannot be opened in a booster pack, and because of this, they only come in English. I do love the way they look and they are super shiny and noticeable. My biggest issue with the Judge Promo fetchlands is that there are only 5 of them and without a way to perfectly match them, they can feel out of place. The large Judge logo as well as the strikingly different art style differentiate them enough from the five Zendikar fetches in my eye despite all being printed in the same year.

These prices on the Judge Foils have remained relatively stagnant over the last few years. A similar reprint could eventually come down the pipeline and I would not be shocked to see another Judge Fetchland promo (most likely starting with the enemy colored ones). Even as the Onslaught foils have continued to rise I feel like these will stay around this price for a while, as many prefer to have the old bordered foil to this new one.

2) Onslaught Foil (2002)

For those who enjoy original printings, this version is the way to go. Gorgeous artwork and amazing frame make the Onslaught foil rank quite high on the list. Notably, the Onslaught Foils are the only ones available in the old frame, and unfortunately for those who enjoy matching lands, there is no universal frame for this. Additionally, the artwork itself doesn’t shine at all so if that matters to you, you will want to pick differently. Personally, I enjoy adding these to my decks that contain many old bordered cards, such as my Vintage and Legacy decks. They are very sharp and what the artwork itself lacks in shine, the borders absolutely compensate for.

I have to mention one of my personal favorite aspects of the Onslaught foils, what I have lovingly named “the ding”. The swoosh is one of the best and a unique aspect of these cards (and all old border foils). These are the lands I would choose if there were matching versions for all 10 fetchlands. There is little to say except these cards are drool inducing.

Onslaught Foreign Foil (2002)

  • Bloodstained Mire (Japanese) ~$600.00
  • Flooded Strand (Japanese) ~$800.00
  • Polluted Delta (Japanese) ~$1500.00
  • Windswept Heath (Japanese) ~$550.00
  • Wooded Foothills (Japanese) ~$600.00

Onslaught was not printed in Korean or Russian (God forbid) so there are no crazy Russian prices floating around here. Still, Japanese is quite hard to find and only getting harder so if you want to pick these up you will searching far and wide. Japanese Onslaught commands the highest premium of all allied color fetchlands by a mile. Prepare you wallets because once you have these, you will not want to sell them.

The Onslaught foil prices have been creeping up lately and I believe this will continue. Since we will not be seeing anymore old frame cards, these will remain unique to collectors throughout time. I believe the price on these will continue to increase over time with Polluted Delta reaching around $400 and even Windswept Heath climbing towards $150.

1) Battle for Zendikar Expedition Foil (2015)

Ding! Ding! We have a winner. The Expedition printings are too stunning to ignore. The beautiful framing and full art of the Expedition series take the cake and are my pick for the best fetchland upgrade. The Expeditions display well on the board and my favorite way to stand out at the table is with shiny bling. Subtlety just doesn’t do it for me and these pop out from a distance. Expeditions also have the wonderful bonus of being the only perfectly uniform set of fetchlands. The artwork, while digital, all match in theme look great side by side. The borders and art really pop out which sets them apart from the rest in that category.

Expeditions aren’t without their downsides, though. They are only available in English so collectors who want to use foreign cards have no option here. Because the border is unique, they will not exactly match any other cards in your deck. For this reason, I go with Zendikar or Onslaught set foils for my older decks where the borders fit together better. I feel like Expeditions are amazing for cubes and Commander decks and really stand out from the rest, which is often the point of upgrading your cards.

At this time, you can find Expeditions notably cheaper than at the time of their release. The trend with most of these has been downward.  For instance, Misty Rainforest is currently selling for about $145. This is notably cheaper than the previous ~$225 at BFZ release, ~$200 in the months following, and ~$175 from about 3 months ago. Despite their beauty, you can probably find even sweeter deals on Expeditions in the coming months (I would aim at about $110-$120 for the Misty for example).

I believe the downward trend is mostly because of the many products Wizards continues to churn out. Players want to afford Eternal Masters, Modern Masters, Commander product, Duel decks, From the Vault, current Standard sets, and the list goes on. To do so, they need to sell the most liquid and valuable cards they own. For many new players, they may have cracked a few Expeditions recently from Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch, and as a result the market is flooded with them. Many people see falling prices of the fetchlands, which can also be attached to falling prices of the non-foil versions from KTK and MM3, and panic sell their Expeditions. While I don’t believe we will see such gorgeous artwork and borders on fetchlands for a long time, there is always the possibility for it, and that possibility keeps cards like this from skyrocketing.

Again, a reminder, this is my favorite version and you will have to make the best decision for yourself. Nobody knows you better than you.

Here is a piece of my personal collection for you to drool over:

In conclusion, upgrading your deck should be a mixture of two things: your budget and your tastes. Making your choice based on those criteria is the essence of improving the cards in your deck. Always remember that you don’t need foils or lavish cards to play your decks but Magic was made to be an expression of yourself and for some, like myself, it can even be addicting. I look forward to bringing you more content, now go out there and enjoy the journey!

Rachel Agnes is a VSL Competitor, Phyrexian Princess, Collector of all things shiny and a Cube, Vintage, Legacy, and EDH enthusiast.
Catch on Twitch and Twitter via Baetog_.

Jason Alt

Unlocked Pro Trader: French is Greek to Me

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I’m going to be honest, the research for this article didn’t lead me where I thought it was going to at all. I started out with a request from my readers (and my boss, someone I’m even more inclined to listen to) that I talk about how the adoption of 1v1 Commander on Magic Online will affect that format and prices. It’s Commander and I write about Commander, so I should know about it, right? That was the theory, anyway. It was a theory I even accepted myself. “How different could it be?” I asked myself, not doing really any research between last week and today. “After all, it’s not like 1v1 Commander is Tiny Leaders.” You want to know what I learned right off the bat?

Actually, I will get to that in a second, but first there’s something I want to cover. What do I mean by the adoption of 1v1 Commander by Magic Online? Well, last week, they made this post to a few places including their Tumblr which is where I cribbed it from.

30 LIFE FOR 1V1 COMMANDER

The Modern Masters 2017Edition deployment today contained a change which moved the starting life total from 40 to 30 for 1v1 Commander games.  (Games with 3 or 4 players remain at a starting life total of 40.)

We have plans to introduce more support for 1v1 Commander.  As part of this, R&D determined that format is better off with a starting life total of 30. At one point we had planned to introduce this change as well as league support and a modified banned list today, but later decided to instead introduce it during Amonkhet season.

Unfortunately, in this process the life total change did not get taken out of this build, and so today it is live. Now that it is live, since it is a change we were planning on making anyway in the future, our intent is to simply leave it in place.

Stay tuned for an article about what support we plan to offer for 1v1 Commander leagues moving forward!

– Lee

This was exciting news for a non-zero number of people. I think the move to 30 life from 40 is more significant than the fact that they can play on MTGO, but regardless of why people are happy, this could mean more people adopting the format and therefore some money could be made for some people. Why not have your EDH writer talk about it? After all, like I said, it’s not like 1v1 is Tiny Leaders. You want to know what I learned in my research?

1v1 Commander is EXACTLY Tiny Leaders

There aren’t the same restrictions on casting cost, but there might as well be because people are not playing EDH cards, they’re playing 100 card Legacy singleton. The first place I headed was MTG Top8 to take a look at the list of most-played cards in 1v1 tournaments so I could get an idea of what the staples in that format were. I did a double take.

Oh, man. This is a Legacy list. I must have clicked on the wrong banner or something. Just to be sure, I navigated to the Legacy tab to check out their list and it wasn’t the same.

Here was the Legacy list and while it was obviously different off the bat because the first list didn’t include lands, adding lands to the 1v1 Commander list didn’t change much, it just pushed everything down.

This has to be for 1v1 Commander. Either that or people started playing Command Tower in Legacy when I wasn’t looking. What’s going on? There is a lot of cheap, basic card draw, 1-for-1 removal spells and a ton of blue cards. This is nothing like the Commander I know anything about. And where’s Sol Ring? To answer that question, we need to get into the next biggest difference between 1v1 Commander and traditional EDH.

Their Banlist is Insane

It’s actually sort of sane given the things you can do in a format with such a gigantic cardpool but it’s a weird amalgam of the EDH and Legacy banlists. It’s pretty clear they don’t want someone to get so far ahead on turn 1 that the other person can’t ever catch up and they banned cards like Sol Ring, Tolarian Academy and Mishra’s Workshop accordingly. Naturally Nectoric Ooze is banned (my hope in that typing that sentence it would be clear to the people who understand why Necrotic Ooze is banned that I have a deep understanding of the format and they would nod in assent, their respect for me deepening) because a combo that was in a fringe Legacy deck for 6 months until everyone got bored of it is pretty oppressive.

The full list is on their site but I’ll paste it here anyway.

Ancestral Recall
Ancient Tomb
Back to Basics
Black Lotus
Channel
Chaos Orb
Dig Through Time
Entomb
Falling Star
Fastbond
Food Chain
Gaea’s Cradle
Gifts Ungiven
Grim Monolith
Hermit Druid
Humility
Imperial Seal
Karakas
Library of Alexandria
Loyal Retainers
Mana Crypt
Mana Drain
Mana Vault
Mind Twist
Mishra’s Workshop
Mox Emerald
Mox Jet
Mox Pearl
Mox Ruby
Mox Sapphire
Mystical Tutor
Natural Order
Necrotic Ooze
Oath of Druids
Protean Hulk
Sensei’s Divning Top
Shahrazad
Sol Ring
Strip Mine
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
Time Vault
Time Walk
Tinker
Tolarian Academy
Treasure Cruise
Vampiric Tutor
Ante cards are also banned.
The following cards are also banned from being played as a commander :
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician
Edric, Spymaster of Trest
Erayo, Soratami Ascendant
Marath, Will of the Wild
Oloro, Ageless Ascetic
Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary
Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard
Zur the Enchanter

That’s a really big banlist, and the banned as a commander list is probably necessary. I don’t play this format, I can’t stress that enough, but I read what the people who play that format write online when they are in the mood for complaining about Magic and they didn’t like how oppressive Derevi was or how consistent Yisan was or the fact that no one wants to play 1v1 EDH with them because it misses the entire point of EDH.

Still, Wizards supporting the format more, changing the official rules to reflect that 30 life is better than 40 if you want games to finish in a timely manner and signaling that they’re willing to have more input on the future bannings and rules applications for this format (something people are largely in favor of for a reason I can’t fathom) at least hints at some more legitimacy for this. It’s not Tiny Leaders in this regard – Wizards has more than acknowledged it and is signalling that they plan to support it, even if it’s relegated to Magic Online (not that they could stop people if they wanted to play it elsewhere, could they?). What does any of this mean for prices, if anything at all?

Prices online of some staples could be disproportionately affected, but which ones? I set out to find cards that were played in 1v1 Commander but not regular EDH and instead I found that it’s going to be tougher to find cards that are played in 1v1 Commander but not Legacy and Vintage.

What I found when I scoured 10 pages of their top cards played in 1v1 is that when I finally got out of Legacy staples I ended up with cards that were in fewer than 10% of the decks. 10% of the decks in a fringe format that don’t get additional support from Legacy or Vintage or EDH aren’t good spec targets. Is 1v1 support on MODO going to bump the price on Sudden Demise, Evasive Maneuvers or a bunch of other cards you may or may not have to look up because you don’t know what they do?

I set out to highlight some targets that 1v1 could push up but there’s nothing. 1v1 could create additional demand for cards already played in Legacy and for stagnant Legacy cards, this is pretty important. Legacy is plateauing a bit and if another format comes in and picks up the slack, some of the cards tailing off could head back up and the cards flat could see a bump. This could be the best thing for Legacy rather than EDH and while that’s not what I set out to prove, I don’t mind pivoting a bit and getting you guys some picks.

Mental Misstep

This is a Vintage card but it’s banned in Legacy which has been disastrous for its price. It’s buyable for $0.50 right now which is pretty brutal for a once-proud card. Foils seem much sexier at $15 right now and while Vintage is propping that up, there is still possible movement. One interesting thing to note is that this is even cheaper on MODO – around 0.15 tickets, in fact. This is a card that is in almost 30% of 1v1 decks putting up results (in some ways this is a better measure than EDHREC’s “here is what a bunch of lunatics built” but in some ways, not so much since EDHREC can forecast future demand better) and will get played in 30% of new 1v1 decks on MODO. Both paper and MODO seem like cheap, low-risk buys. Misstep never really got a chance to get lost in dollar boxes since it started out very valuable and tailed off, rather than the other way around. This could have the same bounce as a “second spike” card.

True-Name Nemesis

Nemesis is ticking back up and it’s time to ride the wave as it were. Legacy and Vintage fish decks are all about this card since it gets merfolk buffs and for a while people were using it just to hold swords in neo-squawk builds. This is in 25% of the builds which isn’t surprising because it’s much, much better in 1v1 commander than it is in multiplayer. This is already cresting and I think given how unlikely a reprint anytime soon feels, this is a great target.

Green Sun’s Zenith

This is a graph shape I can get behind. The printing in Eternal Masters (it’s banned in Modern) tanked the price but EDH and now 1v1 could give it the demand it needs to get back up. In any case, this is basically historically cheap and as good as this card is in as many formats where it’s still legal, I can get behind this. I might not have noticed this is still cratering if I hadn’t started this fools’ errand of an article so, hooray, I… guess? This is a silly card that does silly, unfair things and it’s good enough to be banned in Modern, so why not buy it at its floor? Seems like that’s what we try to do, here.

Misdirection

Misdirection is a card I’m not super duper confident about but based on the metrics we usually use, this is a low-risk high-reward target. It won’t get as expensive as it was when it was a Legacy staple in low supply but Conspiracy didn’t add quite as many copies as it would need to add to suppress the price forever, so it’s clear that a lack of demand is what’s hurting this once-proud card. Increased demand could help us get there. I’m not as confident about this as I am the others and this is in a scant 20% of decks currently, but we could see a lot more demand if 1v1 picks up, both in paper and on MODO.

I didn’t end up coming up with the targets I thought I might when I set out to write this piece but we did identify some cards that are likely to go up even if nothing happens so there will be some real upside possible if 1v1 starts pushing prices up. More demand is always good for staples and these cards are staples for sure. Next week we’ll have Amonkhet to talk about and I’m much happier about that, so make sure to come back next week. Thanks for reading. Until next time!

James Chillcott, Modern Masters

Mastering Modern: Making Money on Modern in 2017 (Pt 2)

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This is the second in my three part series on making money on Modern cards in 2017. You can find the first part, covering the cards most likely to rebound from Modern Masters 2017, over here.

First off, let’s check in on the prices of the rares and mythics from Modern Masters 2017 to see how those potential specs are progressing.

Most mythics are still on the decline since the release of MM17.

There was some chatter online last week that the set was rebounding, but as the charts above show, this is clearly not the case overall. MM17 mythics are down nearly 50% on average from Dec 1st, 2016 and

Nearly all of the MM17 mythics are either holding steady or have continued to fall, down an average of 12% from their release day pricing. Some very good deals were found during opening weekend, and momentum from those couple of days likely accounts for the few rebounds. The exceptions along those lines so far are Liliana of the Veil, Cavern of Souls and Snapcaster Mage, all of which are of course very popular staples in both Modern and Legacy. LOTV currently holds one of the shallowest listings on TCGPlayer.com, which could indicate it could regain $90-100 within the next few months, pending information on further set inventory.

Tarmogoyf has also been relatively consistent in the $85-90 range. As frequent 3 or 4-ofs in multiple decks, many players have had their eye on these cards looking for a solid entry point, and were likely impressed enough by the large discounts vs. prices from last fall to move in. It’s possible that some dealers and speculators have also taken up some of the inventory slack in hopes of future profits. From here on out, I would expect the cards that have been holding stead or rebounding to continue along similar lines, but whether this stays the case will depend heavily on how much more inventory shows up. Now that we’ve moved on to Amonkhet spoilers, the shift in focus back to Standard may redirect player funds and chill the rebounds as well. That being said, there really aren’t that many listings for the mythics at present, so if inventory is choked off faster than expected, further gains on the popular cards are likely.

Rares also continue to fall.

MM17 rares have been following similar patterns, with the average rare down a whopping 63% since Dec 1st/16, and nearly 19% since release day. If we ignore the most popular handful of rares, many of the other rares are down over 80% (!) since December. Some of these cards are now so cheap that waiting for further discounts is largely unnecessary. If you need play sets of Terminus, Pyromancer’s Ascension, Thragtusk, Scavenging Ooze, Phantasmal Image, or Abrupt Decay a further 10-20% decline won’t make much difference either way.

The most resiliant rares have so far proven to be Scalding Tarn, Verdant Catacombs and Stony Silence.  Most of the other fetchlands are so far holding steady, with shallow gains or losses, but I don’t think you need to be shy on getting in on them at this point, at least for your first playset. I’d like to spec on some of these, but for those purposes I’m willing to hold off until I understand inventory flow a bit better. Death’s Shadow got as low as $4 at one point during release weekend, but as one of the most important creatures in Modern right now, it didn’t take much for people to scoop them up and push the price back towards $8. If the card stays popular, and doesn’t get banned out of the format this year, these could end up close to $15 and may still be a solid speculative pick.

Cards like Damnation and Basilisk Collar, whose prices were largely supply side driven, have taken a serious pounding, with $20 Damnations now available, representing a 67% discount vs. last fall.

A Look at The Cards Not Printed

Now let us turn our attention to the important Modern cards that didn’t make it into Modern Masters 2017, investigate their recent price trends and try to identify our best targets for further gains.

 

As per a recent video by Rogue Deckbuilder (found here), the above are some of the most expensive and/or most popular cards in Modern (and beyond, eg Doubling Season) that weren’t featured in Modern Masters 2017. Let’s explore some of our more interesting options here for the purposes of financial speculation:

Noble Hierarch

Noble Hierarch

Noble Hierarch is one of the top ten cards in Modern by play pattern, and as a staple in Abzan, Bant Compay, Bant Eldrazi, Infect and Bant Spirits we have every reason to believe it will continue to occupy that position. I wouldn’t hold your breath for a better mana creature either as Hierarch already pushes the envelope pretty hard. This card peaked near $80 last fall, only to fall to $60 on reprint fears. Now that we know it isn’t likely to be reprinted this year (other than potentially as a Masterpiece) it has regained a few dollars and could easily top $80 again before a near certain reprint by Modern Masters 2019. This isn’t a card that is going to demonstrate fantastic % gains, but it is a consistent staple that could earn you $40/playset after fees before the end of the year, so there’s relatively little risk on getting in on a set to play with or speculate on.

Karn Liberated

Karn Liberated

Karn Liberated doesn’t even crack the top 50 cards in Modern, but it is a fixture in both Eldrazi Tron and GW/GB Tron Variants, where they run anywhere between two and four copies, depending on the build. The card is also iconic and splashy enough to enjoy solid casual demand, but it has already popped from $45 to $65 on the news that it wasn’t included in MM2017 so it’s not clear how much meat is on the bone. If the Tron lands ever get from Modern, this card withers instantly, and that’s not an impossible scenario. There may be a few more dollars to be made here, but I think I’ll steer clear and focus on higher yields.

Doubling Season

Doubling Season

Doubling Season is distinctly not a Modern card, but it was last printed in a Modern Masters set (2015) so it was fair game to see a reprint this winter on the strength of it’s EDH/casual play and it’s steady price gains since the last reprinting. At this time last year Doubling Season was a $40 card that used to be $15 back in 2014. Now it retails consistently around $60 as a staple in Atraxa, Ghave, Rhys and Marath decks in Commander, including over 8300 lists found on EDHRec.com. That’s a strong demand profile, and the inventory is relatively shallow no matter where you look. These are all conditions for further gains, but I’d guess that $80 might be the max for this one before it gets nailed by a reprint, which could come as soon as Commander 2017 next fall. If you can glean some copies closer to $50 and aim to exit near $70, you might be ok, but you’re tying up just as much capital as with Noble Hierarch hoping that demand keeps pushing it up the curve.

Fulminator Mage

Fulminator Mage

Fulminator Mage is an increasingly useful card in a meta where Tron lands and ambitious mana bases abound, hence why we see it in lists from Death’s Shadow Aggro to Grixis Delver and Jund. Last seen in Modern Masters 2015, the land hating shaman didn’t make the cut this time around, popping from $20 to $30 on the news. There are now very few copies out there under $40 and this looks like a solid option on the premise that it is a Top 10 card in the format and could breach $50 before seeing a reprint or an unlikely replacement (since WoTC rarely makes new land destruction cards with Modern playable casting costs).  Getting in close to $40 will likely pay off.

Chalice of the Void

Chalice of the Void

Chalice of the Void is another Top 50 Modern staple that we got in an earlier Modern Masters (2013), but not since, though in this case a Masterpiece edition was printed in Aether Revolt. The value of this artifact floats relative to how good shutting down one drops is and whether mid-range and control decks can work around that stipulation in their own lists. The card most often shows up in Eldrazi Tron, Valukut Breach or W/R Prison as of late,  Chalice enjoys the added benefit of being playable in both Legacy and Vintage. Chalice of the Void was already at $45 heading into MM17, and has since popped to $65 or so, with very shallow inventory under $80. I can’t see another reprint any time soon, so I think $80 is a definite possibility, which could be worth $40 a set on a $260 investment. That’s not amazing, and Noble Hiearch’s strong overall demand profile may mark that as the superior play of the two. If you’re already holding, there’s no rush to unload, so check back in a few months.

Living End

Living End

Living End is worth noting because as of today we now know that Amonkhet is bringing back cycling as a mechanic. This means that we may be about to get a bunch of creatures with cycling that could add some power to Living End. Early speculation on that basis has already pushed this card from $8 to $12 today and inventory is now low enough everywhere that the price could settle anywhere between $10 and $20, depending on whether a stronger version of the deck emerges or not. Now on the one hand, this card has only ever seen a single printing and that was over a decade ago. Because Living End has the Suspend mechanic, it can’t just be thrown into any old product release, but on the other hand it doesn’t feature any specific narrative cues that prevent it from being included alongside a return to suspend as a mechanic. There is also the possibility that Living End decks suffer from too much incidental graveyard hate in Modern overall, and just aren’t positioned well to gain fresh traction. There are still some scant few copies floating around at $10 or less, and under $12 I’m be fine picking up a few playsets to roll the dice.

Eldazi Temple

Eldrazi Temple

Eldrazi decks in various flavors are putting up solid numbers in Modern, largely because they get access to this clearly overpowered land. You would think that as an uncommon that has seen multiple printings in the last few years, this would be a card that was resistent to strong growth, but we’ve already seen this Top 15 land in the format go from $2 to $10 during Eldrazi Winter (2016) only to fall back to $5, and then hit $12 just recently on renewed use in Eldrazi Tron lists. At this point inventory is shallow enough that I’ve moved in on several fresh play sets aiming for a $20 exit. Within the year I think we’ll get it.

Ok, so we’ve covered a lot of ground but I’ve got at least ten more cards I think we need to discuss. Join me next week when we pick up this thread and continue exploring ways to make money on Modern this year.

CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.