Monthly Archives: January 2020

Casual Fridays

Underpriced at the Starting Line

So this weekend, we get PT Brussels for Pioneer and then PT Nagoya for more Pioneer, and then Star City’s got coverage of a Team Constructed event, which is Standard/Pioneer/Modern.

That’s a lot of coverage, and only the draft portion of the PTs are in Limited formats. As a result, we’re going to see some cards move fast this weekend. Some may have started spiking by the time this goes up Friday morning, and if that’s true, I hope you’re able to get in cheap.

Elspeth, Sun’s Nemesis ($7)

Today I’m focusing on the regular card. No foils, no Extended Art or other Showcase. I think there’s value to be had here in the cheapest versions of cards, as I’m looking at their playability. I highlighted Elspeth two weeks ago as a preorder at $7 and my mind hasn’t changed: She’s too good to be this cheap. 

As a bonus, she’s going to have a year and a half to prove herself in any Constructed format before she rotates out of Standard, so buying in now is pretty darn safe even if this weekend isn’t immediately profitable for her. The Escape mechanic is tricky, and recursive cards like this almost always find a home. I want to have some copies on hand to sell into the hype when that hype train takes off.

Underworld Breach ($3.50)

I’m repeating myself and I don’t care. There are too many good combos with this card and it’s going to get broken in half. If you want to go for the Extended Art at $9 I won’t fault you, but I’d prefer picking up a lot at $3.50 and buylisting them away for store credit. I’m much happier when cards are good in Constructed, because then people need playsets, instead of focusing on just one sweet copy of something.

If you need some examples of combos, just search up ‘Underworld Breach combo mtg’ and have a field day. There’s Legacy Storm with Brain Freeze. There’s Modern versions looking to exploit Dredge interactions. MTGGoldfish recently posted a video where Drowned Secrets played a huge part in the combo win. Get in while you can.

The New Temples (Mostly around $1-$1.50)

You don’t have to move on these this weekend, but please, before Ikoria comes out, make sure you have your set of twenty Temples from this set. There’s going to be a lot more demand for them in about six months when the shocklands rotate out. Perhaps there will be a better cycle of lands in the next Fall set, but these are too cheap to ignore. They aren’t going to hit huge heights, as there’s too many copies in circulation, but I hate buying cards at $3 or $4 I could have gotten for a lot less if I’d just planned ahead.

Shatter the Sky ($1.50)

Yes, I agree. This is a bad card when compared to Kaya’s Wrath or Time Wipe or whatever. It’s easy to cast, though, and that’s a very alluring thing to a control player. Four mana to clear the board has always been the sweet spot for control decks, and while it sears my soul to know they might get a card or two, the metagame isn’t punishing this card too much. I think that this card will have a least one good showing this weekend, and it’ll be a great card with no drawback, and the price will jump briefly.

It’s also worth noting that this is one of the few ways to deal with Limited dream-killer and UW Control’s darling Dream Trawler, a card I don’t think I want to buy in on now that it’s risen above $3. It’ll be very hard for it to get actionable value past that. 

Phoenix of Ash (75 cents or so)

The 2/2 hasty flyer has often been a good card in aggressive decks. Being able to Escape it into a 3/3 haste flyer for four is a wonderful upside, and one that might well push this phoenix to the front of the line, ahead of Chandra’s Phoenix, Rekindling Phoenix or Flamewake Phoenix. There’s a lot of hoops to jump through with the other firebirds, and there’s a wonderful simplicity to this one. Being in an aggressive red shell means you’ll rarely be lacking for spells in the graveyard, so they’d better have some Cry of the Carnarium ready to go.

I shouldn’t have to tell you how much fun it is to spec on a card like this for 30+ copies, and then sending them to a buylist as a brick after it breaks $4. It’s the kind of high people chase for a long time.

Storm’s Wrath (50 cents)

You can get this for near-bulk prices on TCG right now, and a lot of that is due to Fires of Invention decks that are trying so very hard to do something fun. The Fires decks actually have two good choices for four-drops in Shatter the Sky and this, depending on the risk and the presumed threats on the board.

Temur Reclamation decks are also playing the full set of this, and you can expect a hefty price jump if this looks good on camera. Wilderness Reclamation is a pretty busted card when built around, and being able to wipe the board and then reset your mana is a very sick play. 

Ashiok, Nightmare Muse ($12)

Finally, I think Ashiok remains a buy at $12. The card is fantastic, providing a game-winning plan through the plus ability and setting up for a devastating minus. Defense is also reasonable, answering any problematic permanent for at least a turn. I would not be in at $15+, but right now you can get Ashiok at prices approaching $10 on eBay or the cheaper TCG copies, and that’s really where I want to be for the UB control finisher.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: My Usual article, But Kroxa

It’s the remix to Ignition
Titan Kroxa Edition
Played him 4 times in one turn
Now the whole table’s bitchin’

Readers!

If you were bracing yourself for a second week or musings about Siona, or a boring dive into Simic Goodstuff with a look at Uro, I have news. We’re doing not that. You probably knew that already because of the picture and description and first paragraph and hopefully you check EDHREC by yourself by now, but still, I’m going to pretend I buried the lede here, so play along. There’s a new Sheriff in town and he has two mouths, I think. Not really sure what’s going on with the art but what I do know is that Siona was unseated. Take that, uncommon.

Siona is still ahead in absolute terms on the strength of a good week one, but there’s another place we need to look, and that’s the Top Commanders of the Week where Siona just got passed up.

This is super fine with me because I actually really want to talk about Kroxa, having just brewed with him this week. Here’s what I think matters.

It’s pretty clear I dropped the ball and missed the nice reverse-J shape we love. This has gone full u-shape, except it’s threatening to go higher than it was before the reprint. A lot of decks are making good use of making them discard. Waste Not was in Entropic Uprising, the Yidris deck that had a ton of good cards in it and if your Target is like mine and randomly restocks the old decks, snap these off. Basically any 4-color deck is good but Yidris had Burgeoning and Vial-Smasher and Thrasios and all kinds of other value-laden cards. A card in a precon that just sold for $80 on eBay might as well not have gotten reprinted. Waste Not is a $10 card that doesn’t know it’s $10 yet and if you can scoop these around $5 on TCG Player, it’s a no-brainer. Curiously, MKM is bought out under 7 Euro which surprises me considering this is an EDH-only card. That said, this is really strong, and while reprint risk is there, it probably shakes that off, too.

A card that has demonstrated a willingness to flirt with $12 should be respected when it’s gettable around $6. This is a strong card – perhaps too strong for an EDH precon that’s designed to get new players interested in playing the game. That lack of reprint risk makes me feel more secure about the future of this card. I’m not sure if this is the floor but it’s definitely not the ceiling so worst-case scenario, this drops another couple of bucks. If it does, I buy a bunch more copies until I’m happy with the average price I paid then I get out when this crests again, which it will do.

GG is an uncommon but it’s old enough that there are fewer copies of Grimoire than there are mythics from Kaladesh, so I’m happy to buy in at $2ish considering this recently flirted with $4. There has never been a better Grimoire deck than Kroxa, not even Nicol Bolas, the deck that made it go up last time. Second spikes are harder and with all of the cheap copies in the hands of dealers, people will have no choice to pay retail on these. I like it at its current price for sure, especially since it’s better in Kroxa than it was in Nicol Bolas.

If you remember last year, I used to really like this as a spec. I still do, but I used to, too.

Bummer. We missed this boat on this for sure since all of the regrowth happened in the last 12 months. Could this go higher? For sure – Planar Chaos was a profoundly bad set so it didn’t get bought much and I bet cards from it are pretty rare. This is a meme card and I wish I had collected more of these back in the day.

Ultimately, you’ll be able to look at Kroxa’s page and find a few cards of your own. If you have specific questions about why I skipped something you like, hit me up in the comments or, if you don’t want to tip others off, message me in the Pro Trader Discord group. That’s it for me – until next time!

Watchtower

The Watchtower 01/27/20 – It’s Another Pioneer Episode

I know I focused heavily on Pioneer a couple of weeks ago, but this week we’re heading into a triple Pioneer GP weekend which means there’s going to be a big spotlight on the format, and we could definitely see some more price spikes. I was planning on talking about Inverter of Truth today, an integral part of the so-called ‘Splinter Twin’ deck with Thassa’s Oracle and Jace, Wielder of Mysteries, but it seems the best action on that has already gone. Never fear, I’ve got some different picks lined up for you to take a look at instead!

Stonecoil Serpent (EA Version)

Price today: $6.50
Possible price: $15

Izzet Ensoul was one of the earlier decks to do well in Pioneer – it was fast and aggressive, but also had multiple angles of attack and could close out games with Shrapnel Blast after getting a couple of hits in with an Ensouled 5/5. However, once everyone realised how broken Oko was, artifact-based decks just weren’t a viable thing to be doing in Pioneer. Walking Ballista? It’s an Elk. Darksteel Citadel? That’s an Elk too. Everything’s an Elk. Even you.

But now that he’s gone and the deer have been set free, we’re seeing Izzet Ensoul come back to the forefront of the meta. One of the most powerful and flexible cards in the deck is Stonecoil Serpent – it can be played as a 1/1 on turn one ready to grab some scissors on turn two, but is also great in the late-game when you can pump more mana into it. The best thing about Serpent is the abilities on it, and the fact that people always forget about at least one of them (the number of times I’ve seen people chump attack their fliers into it is quite something). The Trample is great for getting through damage when it’s been Ensouled, and the combination of Reach and Protection from multicoloured makes it one of the best Niv-Mizzet blockers in the format, as well as fading key removal spells like Abrupt Decay and Kolaghan’s Command.

I really like buying the non-foil Extended Art version of Stonecoil here, for three reasons:

1) There are far fewer copies around than the normal versions, and are only a few dollars more.
2) EA cards are one of the most tournament-friendly ways for players to pimp their decks out without using foils.
3) They really do look great.

The EA Stonecoils were once up at $15 due to their use in Ensoul and Hardened Scales, but have since fallen by the wayside a bit. I fully expect them to be able to reach that price point again, and if you fancy foil EAs at $22 I wouldn’t blame you – they’re in even shorter supply and also look fantastic.

Leyline of the Void

Price today: $9
Possible price: $18

Leyline of the Void has had its fair share of days in the sun, most recently during Hogaak’s reign of terror over Modern last year. Incredibly, even as mainly just a sideboard card, it was the most played card at Mythic Championship IV, showing just how powerful it can be against graveyard-heavy strategies. Dredge is still a good deck in Modern, and might be getting better with the inclusion of the new Ox of Agonas from Theros Beyond Death.

Leyline of the Void hasn’t been particularly relevant in Standard, but it’s still a powerful hoser in Modern and has started showing up relatively frequently in Pioneer too. Mono-black aggro is still one of the best decks in the meta, and Leyline is good both in and against the deck. It’s generally seen with 2-4 copies in the sideboard, for the mirror match as well as against other graveyard-based decks like Dredgeless Dredge, Breach Lotus Storm and Golgari Soulflayer.

For a card that used to be well over $50, the reprint in M20 (along with Hogaak getting banned) tanked the price quite a bit, and now they’re sitting at around $9. I think this is most likely the floor for this card, and it’s going to creep up steadily until it’s doubled before you know it. Particularly for Modern and to a lesser extent Pioneer, it’s a card that is mostly played as a 4-of, which means that supply will dry up much faster than an EDH-only card, for example. If you think you’re going to play with this card at some point in the future, pick your copies up now. If you’re not, pick some up anyway!

Paradise Druid (FNM)

Price today: $1.50
Possible price: $3

I’ll round today’s article off with a small-ball pick: Paradise Druid. Yes, it’s an uncommon, but this is a card that’s seeing quite a lot of play in multiple formats. It’s a Standard staple (although that won’t be moving the price much), but it’s also become a key card in a couple of Pioneer decks too. Niv to Light and Ascendancy Combo decks both use it in the same role as Sylvan Caryatid – a hexproof dork that makes any colour of mana. Without Birds of Paradise in the format, Druid is the next best thing after Caryatid, and having Hexproof means that it can reliably survive to produce the mana you need in these four and five-colour decks.

We’re also seeing a small amount of play from this card in a new Standard deck – a Bogles type shell with Setessan Champion. This plus inclusion in around 3000 decks on EDHREC means that a fair few players need copies of this.

As FNM promos go, this is one that a lot of players will slots into one or more of their EDH decks, or complete a set to play with in Standard or Pioneer. This means that there are lots of copies being played with and fewer copies in the hands of vendors, making for a shallower supply. If you grab some of these at $1.50 and give it 12 months, I could see buylists heading towards the $3 range for a nice double up.

That’s all from me this week, and I promise I’ll have some non-Pioneer specs for you next Monday.

David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK and a new writer for MTGPrice in 2020, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Uncategorized

This Week In Theros

I’m really not a fan of the huge lag between the reveal of cards and the time when they can begin shipping. I also don’t enjoy that I can’t do paper drafts during prerelease weekend, or the time after prerelease. Making me wait a whole week for updates to my Commander decks, my Cube, and anything else I have going on is just plain cruel.

And now that I’m done yelling at clouds, let’s look at the things that jumped up in price this week!

Before we get too deep, there’s some caveats to make about these prices. Since it’s only allowed to ship these starting today, the TCG prices and the other vendors aren’t in alignment. Also, some prices have changed since I reviewed them Thursday evening. Please, be kind.

Ashiok, Nightmare Muse (up to $17 from about $11)

I liked Elspeth last week at $7 but I should have seen Ashiok as the finisher in UB control or some Esper build. I’ve had the privilege of losing to this card in Limited, and I love any planeswalker who gets a card from the plus or the minus ability. It’s not difficult to get them into the ultimate range, and while I don’t think it’ll hold at $17, this is a nice bump and a sign that the format isn’t too aggro yet.

Dream Trawler (Up to $4 from about $1)

Speaking of finishers, can I interest you in a Time Wipe or bust? I’ve won Limited games with this, and I won’t be shocked if it’s the finisher du jour in formats besides Standard. You’re gaining five on the attack, plus the extra card. It’s very difficult to beat in combat, it’s extremely difficult to race, and that mana requirement is the only thing stopping this from being $10. Decks aren’t playing a full playset of this (yet) and that’s to be expected on a six-drop. I think this price is going to recede to $3 or so, but more likely is that everyone starts playing the heck out of this card and it pops to $7 this first weekend. It’s very difficult to make money on a short term jump like that, I don’t recommend you try.

Thassa’s Oracle (Up to $4 from about $2)

Look, you can name your own combo with this card. It’s not difficult to figure out the game state that ends up with you victorious after a certain amount of silliness. Commander players eat this up, and let’s not overlook that we’ve not got this bad boy and Jace, Wielder of Mysteries in the same Standard. I’m exceedingly leery of trying to make that work when Murderous Rider and Mystical Dispute are everywhere, but I appreciate the optimism that people are showing.

I do not think the Oracle can hold $4 long-term, but what I’m going to be watching is the price of the EA foils. Right now those are in the $80 range on TCG, and supply is appropriately tiny. “I win the game” cards always have a certain cache to them, it’s a challenge that a large number of people can’t ignore.

Setessan Champion (up to $3 from $1)

There’s a Bogles deck in Standard! Thankfully, there’s only one real hexproof creature in the deck, not two, but this deck will wreck your face if you’re not prepared. Season of Growth plus this card is a card advantage nightmare if you don’t have the right tools, not to mention the Alseid making everyone hate the little 1/1 for 1. All that Glitters is a superstar here, you’ve got a Rancor replacement in Setessan Training, and really, be thankful that there’s nothing else in this environment with Hexproof under five mana. Be very aware of this card, because if there’s anything with hexproof in the next four sets, this is an automatic four-of and will jump in price accordingly. I’m not buying now, but when it settles back down, I’ll be considering buying a brick of them for later buylisting.

Underworld Breach (Up to $5 from $3.50)

It seems inevitable that someone will break this card. Yes, it’s infinite milling with Brain Freeze and Lion’s Eye Diamond as long as you mill yourself a little. You’ll buzzsaw their deck first. There’s three Extended Art foils under $60 on TCG and I think that’s good value, especially with the ramp up to the $80 range. I also think this is easier to abuse than Thassa’s Oracle, so we will see where the relative values land.

Going up to $5 is no big deal at the moment, but when word breaks of someone who crushed a PTQ using this in some weird combo, it’ll jump again, hard. Happily, as a key combo piece, it’ll always be a four-of and you’ll be selling these by the playset instead of just the singles.

I also like the flipside of the card’s potential: If it does nothing for the next three months, then it’ll be dirt cheap when Ikoria comes out and I can vacuum up lots and lots of copies.

Nightmare Shepherd (Up to $4 from $1.50)

Finally, the mayor of valuetown. I don’t know if I have the courage to play this in a Commander deck, but I would certainly love the feeling of knowing I’m going to get all my triggers all over again. Your combo choices are many and plentiful, in Standard and elsewhere. The favored thing to do will be to curve Ayara into this and then Gary the Grey Merchant, which should end the game relatively easily. Don’t forget that it’s a 4/4 flier for four, with no drawbacks at all. No random discards, no “you can’t win the game,” or other such problems. Just a steady and delicious stream of unending recycled creatures for maximum value. Korvold’s new best friend.

One more thing about Theros: I’m not picking up the foil lands yet, because I want to see what the supply will be like. Right now, they are going for $6-7 on eBay in foil, and that’s kind of absurd. The early box openings are showing that there’s just one or two foil lands per box, and if enough people dump copies down into the $3 range, I’ll be listening. It doesn’t matter if you like the art personally, don’t let that get in the way of the profits to be made.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.