All posts by Travis Allen

Travis Allen has been playing Magic on and off since 1994, and got sucked into the financial side of the game after he started playing competitively during Zendikar. You can find his daily Magic chat on Twitter at @wizardbumpin. He currently resides in upstate NY, where he is a graduate student in applied ontology.

PROTRADER: Lost in Translation

By: Travis Allen

Financially oriented websites are an odd duck in the ocean of content production that is the internet. Those whose business models are to make you money exist in this tenuous balance of profitability; on the one hand is yours, on the other, theirs.

Production Values

StarCityGames.com makes sense as a content producer. Articles are written regarding competitive strategy, mulligan decisions, and deck-building tips. You pay money to learn how to be better at the game. Similar arrangements exist for nearly any topic under the sun. One can read about scrap booking or crocheting or bee husbandry or south Asian cricket teams or whatever it is that one fancies.

Content about making money is where things become murky. Articles on SCG designed to make you a better player aren’t directly disadvantageous for the writers. Few people that wouldn’t have beaten Tom Ross before reading his articles will beat him now. It’s in his best interest that there be a wealth of robust players anyways, as a healthy competitive scene will ensure that there’s plenty of fish out there. Websites whose content is about making you a better player, rather than about making you money, have more obfuscatory processes between a writer creating content and ultimately being less successful because of it.

If I teach you how to mulligan better, it’s extremely unlikely that it will come back to bite me in the ass in a meaningful setting. If I teach you to buy piles of Obelisk of Urd, there’s going to be a lot fewer cheap copies available on TCGplayer for me, which means I can quite easily see how my advice is actively costing me money.

Content creators for websites that teach you how to make money, whether it’s Magic cards or Monsanto stock, deal with this issue. The more information I give you about how to succeed in the same market I’m in, the less overall money there is for me. A true #mtgfinance warrior wants to write nothing and tweet nothing. Knowledge is power, and power is money, so transitively, knowledge is money. Why would you want to share knowledge if it means someone else is buying your 25-cent copies of Hangarback Walker?

It’s a question of how we each assign value. Teaching you all how to spot cards that are worth scooping up may mean that there are fewer copies available when I decide to do it, and consequently I make less money because of what I wrote, but it provides value in a different vein. Rather than operate in the shadows, making 10 percent more than I would have otherwise, I get to be a public face in this niche field of a niche hobby. I have 1,300 Twitter followers, strangers occasionally approach me at Grands Prix, and thousands of people read my articles. All of that makes me feel like I’m doing something that at least a few people out there enjoy. 

“You’re just doing this to feed your ego!” you may say, and you’d be quite correct. We all need our own ways of making ourselves feel better about being us, and if my way of doing that is sacrificing some amount of personal financial gain for a shred of visibility, then so be it. Any writer who shares information that they could otherwise be using to profit themselves is doing the same thing.

Of course, each of us has to find our own personal threshold between money and fame. I can talk about slumming the ban list as a means of finding undervalued cards that will skyrocket in value because I don’t expect there to be enough of a drain on that particular inventory set that it will prevent me from doing the same. Maybe I’m only able to pick up four sets of Bloodbraid Elf instead of six. On the other hand, I made sure not to talk about Chord of Calling or See the Unwritten before I purchased stacks for myself, and I didn’t tweet about Rally the Ancestors until I had grabbed several sets of that either. All of us writers are willing to share our processes about making money, even if it costs us in the long run—up to a point.

A Well-Kept Secret

If you had a personal relationship with certain writers or dealers two or three months back, you may have noticed a hole in the overall coverage landscape of Magic finance. A lot of us had, in our own ways, stumbled upon a fairly lucrative process. We were all keeping quiet about it, willing to share it with friends and insiders, but we weren’t ready to broadcast it to the masses. This was still a little too good to share; not yet would the personal validation be enough to out-value the money.

Of course, one kid in class has to point out to the teacher that the multiplication table on the wall is still visible during the math quiz. A few weeks ago, for the first time since I started writing about Magic finance, I found myself slightly agitated with an article a peer had written. Being tipped off by a comment on Twitter, I looked up Sigmund’s article that was set to be published in twelve hours. I told him there was a reason none of us had written that article already. We weren’t quite ready to let more people into this specific treehouse yet, and here he was kicking down the ladder.

You can sheer a sheep many times, but you can only skin it once.

Gone Shoppin’

Rather than attempt to recap Sig’s article, just go read it if you haven’t already. I’m instead going to pivot to discuss some of my own experiences with this topic, eventually getting to some actual useful piece of information. You’re going to have to earn it this week.

I was fortunate enough to have an opportunity to visit Japan early this year, and I didn’t miss the chance to stock on up Magic product. About $3,000 worth of cards came back with me. When I wrote about it, I attempted to create something with even just a modicum more depth than my usual fare. I’m not sure I succeeded. That’s for you to decide.

Covered in my article about the trip was how much smaller margins were on competitive staples relative to casual ones. Cards like Force of Will and Tarmogoyf and Snapcaster Mage were more expensive in Japan, while casual staples were practically free for the taking. This was completely fine by me: profit margins are profit margins, and between TCGplayer and eBay, outing casual staples isn’t too hard. 

The only caveat is that English copies were far less common than Japanese ones. Chalking that up to the region was easy. After all, it was Japan. Why wouldn’t most of the cards be in Japanese?

Literature uses foreshadowing to tip off the reader as to events to come. Life does, too, though identifying the passages is considerably more challenging.

On my return I had, among other things,  27 JP* Mana Reflections, each acquired at $7.25, and 37 JP Black Markets, at under $3 each. How could you not love those prices? Over on TCGplayer, Mana Reflections were $17 or more at the time, and Black Markets were easily $10. When I found a store with 37 Black Markets in stock at that price, I think I actually made the cash register sound in my head. I snagged a few English copies of both of those as well, though far fewer.

*Use ‘JP’ when shorthanding Japanese, not ‘Jap.’ The latter developed into a slur in the era of World War II.

At the time of my return, TCGplayer hadn’t yet installed the infrastructure for selling foreign cards. I sold one or two JP casual/EDH cards through a private board, and listed a few on eBay that didn’t see any action. I mostly waited, knowing that the foreign card sales on TCGplayer were coming in the near future. While sales at the start were slow, that was mostly an issue of being unable to reach my target market. Once I was able to connect with that huge casual segment, I was going to plow through this huge stack of sweet Japanese EDH and casual cards, perhaps even at better-than-English prices. After all, Japanese is more desirable than English.

This time, I’m the one doing the foreshadowing.

When foreign functionality was added to TCGplayer a month or two later, everything I had went up at 10 to 20 percent more than their English counterparts. In fact, I was one of the first to add foreign versions of many cards. Now I just had to wait for the money to start rolling in. Each morning I awoke eagerly to check the Gmail notification on my phone, anticipating a deluge of orders.

Alright, so it wasn’t moving that fast. In fact, in the first month, I didn’t sell a single copy of either Reflection or Market. I kept lowering prices on the Japanese copies closer and closer to the English low, without success. Eventually I had Japanese copies cheaper than English ones. You know what happened?

My English copies, which cost more than the Japanese copies, sold first. Welp.

Language Barrier

We’ve been fed this idea that foreign language cards are preferable. We enjoy tossing around price tags for foil Russian Emrakul and its ilk. There’s a stated knowledge that Korean, Japanese, and Russian cards are worth more than any of the other languages. Foils particularly so, but even the non-foils are generally worth some percentage more.

It turns out that isn’t exactly true. First of all, in all my Magic dealings over the last several years, the only time foreign cards spark interest is when they’re foil. Yes, foil JP stuff people are interested in. Non-foil JP product, though, even format staples, typically elicit a, “You don’t have any English copies, do you?” from people.They’ll take the Japanese or Russian Spellskite, but it’s not their first choice. And these are competitive staples: cards players need any legal copy of for competitive play.

Here’s the issue. A guy trading for a Spellskite is using it in a tournament setting. Everyone in that room knows what Spellskite does. The owner of the card doesn’t care what it looks like. He’s not going to be reading it, and neither is his playgroup. Casual players, though? They actually read the cards.

This is a rather alien concept to most of us. How often do you need to actually read a card outside of a new Limited environment? Maybe occasionally you’ll pick up Norin the Wary just to ensure you understand it, or double check the wording on Cryptic Command, but for the most part, you’ve memorized nearly all the cards you regularly come in contact with.

Casual players, on the other hand, don’t have an encyclopedic knowledge of most Magic. Hence, “casual.” And even if they know what Mana Reflection does, it doesn’t mean everyone at their table will. Mana Reflection is fairly simple, too. Black Market is far more wordy. “At the beginning of your precombat main phase” is going to require some real parsing for guys with Consuming Aberration in their decks. Cards in foreign languages make it difficult for players to understand both their own cards and each other’s cards.

Being able to read one’s own cards is important to casual types. You know what they don’t care about much? Visual flair. Many casual players not only don’t find foils more appealing, they actively dislike them. Check out Consuming Aberration. There’s only a 60-cent gap between non-foils and foils, or roughly a 20-percent markup. That’s an obscenely low markup, simply because the interested market for Aberration doesn’t care for foils. Casually oriented players play Magic to have fun. Excitement comes from finding a new card for a deck they never knew existed, not from finally replacing a FTV Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre with a pack foil Rise of the Eldrazi copy.

And so my non-foil Japanese casual cards sat. And sit. I’ve managed to get rid of a few so far. I’ve sold four JP Reflections on TCGplayer since January, all within the last month. Two JP Markets. There’s still plenty to go.

I’ve looked for elsewhere to out them, as I’m deathly afraid of reprints. Cards like Tarmogoyf do just fine with second and third copies. Casual cards, not so much. I did manage to sell a handful of each at GP Vegas. I carried around a copy of Reflection and Market from booth to booth. I’d ask dealers how much they were paying for each. Most told me they didn’t want either, and more still would offer numbers that had me taking deep losses. There were at least a few that bit, thankfully. They’d offer $13 on the JP Reflection, and I’d ask how many playsets they wanted. I’d get looks.

Buylists are an option, too. SCG is paying $7 on JP Reflections and $5 on Markets. That’s a loss on the Reflections, and a fairly minimal profit on the Markets. I still need to do more homework on buylists that want foreign cards. I’ve heard ABU is good for it, though I haven’t checked myself. I’m dragging my feet on this and I’m quite literally going to pay for it if I don’t hurry up.

There are two pages in my trade binder: one at the front of the green section, the other at the front of black. A sheet of nine Reflections and Markets respectively. The only times I’ve managed to trade out of either page, it was for the English copy I had in the middle so players would know what the card does.

Leftovers

Here I sit, with piles of JP Mana Reflection and Black Market still in hand, fearing a reprint, with no good place to sell them. I’ve got others, too, though nothing I’m so deep on. Some Darksteel Plates, some Akroma’s Memorials. They’re cards intended for casual and EDH markets, except that casual and EDH players don’t want them. Remember that foreshadowing I mentioned earlier about how the stores had very few English copies of this stuff, but plenty of Japanese? Well, this is why. Even the market that supposedly wants them doesn’t want them.

The lesson here, which I’ve taken an incredibly long path to get to, is to stay the hell away from non-foil foreign cards unless you know damn well what you’re going to do with them. “Put them on TCGplayer” isn’t an option, either. Don’t buy this stuff unless you can plainly see a buylist that makes flipping the cards worth it, or someone has already promised to take copies off your hands. When you’re browsing foreign sites, prices on these can be awfully alluring—trust me, I get it—but at the end of the day, you may find yourself with plenty of profit on paper yet a wallet that remains oddly light.


 

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Magic for the Rest of Us—One for Me, One for TCGP

By: Travis Allen

Hello, and welcome to my first unlocked article! Today we’ll touch briefly on the banned and restricted list update from 7/13. Then we’ll move on to the meat of today’s article, a speculation technique designed for those that aren’t looking to become cardboard stock traders, but rather simply want to make Magic a little cheaper to play.

Checking in on the B&R List

 

No changes to the banned and restricted list, eh? In the cycle of B&R updates, we were in the “something is going to change” phase, as evidenced by the fact that plenty of people were taking to Twitter to voice their (often terrible) opinions.

I’m a bit surprised Wizards hasn’t seen fit to remove some part of Amulet Bloom from the format. While it dodged removal once again, I still am not confident it’s here to stay. Part of the reason that deck hasn’t taken over Modern yet is that it’s incredibly difficult to play well, requiring months of practice to pilot optimally. Even Justin Cohen, who made top eight of a Pro Tour with the deck, was making mistakes on camera that could have won him games multiple turns earlier. Due to the challenging nature of the deck, most players can’t just sleeve up 75 and head to the local PreTQ. Right now, we’re only seeing highly skilled and dedicated players achieving. If  Amulet Bloom were more simple to play, akin to the now-banned Blazing Shoal infect deck, it would be gone. Perhaps its resistance to being piloted properly will save it from the banned list altogether. It’s hard to say. The power level is certainly there, though.

Goryo’s Vengeance is the other card a handful of people were hoping to see exit the format this week, which would have been premature. I have thought for years that the card will eventually be banned, and I still expect that to come true at some point. The card is capable of killing an opponent on turn two, or even turn one in conjunction with perennially questionably legal Simian Spirit Guide.

While Grishoalbrand may prove to be the list that finally forces Wizards’s hand, we aren’t there yet. This Modern season will likely provide the data it needs to decide whether Goryo has had enough vengeance for awhile.

Oh, and people think Sensei’s Divining Top should go in Legacy. I’m sympathetic to this cause, if only on the issue that the card is miserable for tournament logistics. It’s banned in Modern because of how much time it eats off the clock, and Legacy’s card pool only exacerbates that issue. It would be nice if we had infinite time in which to play, but sadly, that is not the case. I wouldn’t want to be holding on to spare Tops and Counterbalances by the time Battle for Zendikar rolls around.

One for Me

Early in Origins spoilers, we got a handful of uncommon elves. Among them were Gnarlroot Trapper and Shaman of the Pack, two high-power elves that require black mana. I immediately dove in on Gilt-Leaf Palaces, the spike of Wanderwine Hub still fresh in my memory. (I was ultimately rewarded, initially buying in at $2 a copy, and as of Monday, seeing a NM low on TCG around $12. Auntie’s Hovel reacted similarly at the reveal of Goblin Piledriver, but has since sunk to $5.)

My behavior is not noteworthy here. I’m not the only finance-oriented individual to have done this, and I won’t be next time, either. That’s not what’s interesting.

The reason I bring this up is that as I was buying copies of Palace, a friend in our local MTG Facebook chat of about seven people said that he too was buying copies. This surprised me, as this particular individual is entirely a player, not a finance hobbyist. I’ve never once seen him speculate on anything. He doesn’t like foils, as they add nothing to the gameplay experience, and hey, any foil copy could instead be two nonfoil copies. I’ve seen him hand over 30 dollars of cold hard cash to someone for an Elspeth, Sun’s Champion when they were available on TCGplayer for under 25 bucks. His interest in the game is exactly that: as a game.

So when he said that he bought copies of Gilt-Leaf Palace as a result of the reveal, I was quite curious. Had he finally come over to the dark side of Magic? Was he going to give in and subscribe to ProTrader so that he could read all my articles? (None of my real life friends read my articles when they were free, so this was an unlikely outcome. They’re jerks.)

As it turns out, he purchased exactly four copies. A single playset. While he saw that the likelihood of the card rising in value was great enough that it warranted buying in immediately, without waiting for results, he still chose not to buy any extra copies. He now has his $10 set of Gilt-Leaf Palaces, with no copies to spare.

I was a bit struck by this decision, as if you’re confident enough the card is going to rise, why wouldn’t you pick up some number of extra copies in an attempt to profit? It’s not terribly difficult, and you don’t need to be heavily invested in the sales process to to make it worth your while.

One for TCGP

A technique that many players use, myself included, is a “one for me, one spare” technique in speculating. Or “one for me and one for TCGP,” which rhymes if you pronounce it “T-C-G-P.” A handy little mnemonic for you there.

While you won’t make much money doing this, the two-set purchase has several benefits.

  • Partially subsidized or even free playsets of cards
  • Low effort
  • Low risk

The process is simple. If you see a card that you want a playset of, in part because you expect the price is going to rise soon, buy two. Keep one, and sell the other one. It’s simple enough. The idea is that the second set will rise in value enough that your profits will at least partially cover the cost of your own personal set, and at best will completely cover your price of entry. Here are two examples: one real, one theoretical.

Theoretical Example, Scenario A

Alex predicts that Gilt-Leaf Palace is almost definitely going to rise in price, with at least enough confidence that he knows he should buy a set now in case he wants to use them. Rather than buy a single set, though, he buys one extra, for a total of eight cards. After the price jumps to over $10 per NM copy, he sells the spare set on eBay for a competitive $35 in order to ensure he actually puts money in his pocket. He ends up with roughly $30 after fees, and with a buy-in of maybe $10 for the set of Palaces, he’s made $20. His own personal set cost $10, so not only has he covered his personal set, he’s made $10 in the process.

Theoretical Example, Scenario B

Alex buys the same number of copies, but Gilt-Leaf Palace never spikes. He’s now spent about $10 he wouldn’t have otherwise. He puts the extra playset of Palaces in his binder and trades them to someone else that’s looking to play GB elves at some point, netting himself a Bloodstained Mire, a card he still needs for Standard. Now he spent $10 for a Mire, which is retail cost. The end result is that he paid $10 for his Palaces, which he would have done anyways, and $10 for a Mire.

Real Example

Stormbreath Dragon was pre-ordering on ABU for $15 a copy. I wanted a personal set to play with, and at the same time, I thought that $15 a copy was too low for what I expected would become a banner mythic. We were coming off Thundermaw Hellkite, a similar card that had at one point been $50, and even if Stormbreath ended up being bad (which it wouldn’t), it would experience at least enough popularity to rise above $20, if only temporarily. I picked up three playsets at $60 a set. Stormbreath ended up hitting the street around $25 per copy, and according to my PayPal sales history, I sold sets for around $95 each. At $30 profit per set, the first two meant that the third was free.

Simple Strategy

What sets the “one for me, one for TCGP” rule of thumb apart from general speculation is mostly twofold: A) it’s a strategy that doesn’t seek to make as much money as possible, but rather, there’s a clear profit goal, and B) it minimizes risk.

When engaging in true speculation, you buy as many copies as you can at whatever price you feel falls below the threshold of risk. Your goal is to make as much money as possible. With the two-for strategy, however, you have a clear number in mind: exactly the cost you paid for a single set. This matters because it is not an infinitely scaling ambition, but rather, it is limited in its scope. Why do we want to limit our scope, rather than shoot for the moon?

The reason for that leads us directly to B, which is that you minimize your exposure. When Alex buys only a single extra set of Palaces, he isn’t putting himself in a position where he may lose a large sum of money. He’s not going to be out $100 because whoops, Palaces are in Origins. If he’s locked himself into buying at least a single set, the extra set only opens his exposure up to a single set’s value. Compare that to speculating in earnest, in which case you may buy hundreds of copies of a card, with your risk profile now tens or even hundreds of times greater than the cost of a single personal set.

Concerns over scale make this another great method for players, rather than economists, to play Magic for (sort of) free. If I buy 100 copies of Eidolon of Blossoms and it triples in value, that’s all well and good, but it means nothing until I have money in my pocket. I have in the past spoken about how difficult it can be to actually profit from a situation like this. When you’re only dealing with a single extra set, though, you don’t have nearly as many issues to contend with. You don’t have to deal with shipping twenty or thirty packages, nor do you need to learn what a buylist is and then ship to three different vendors to maximize your profits. Rather, since there’s only one extra set of cards, the methods available to profit are numerous and simple.

  1. Sell the card on eBay. If you’re able to purchase cards on the internet, you can sell on eBay. While eBay is not a preferred method for regularly selling large quantities of cards, selling a single playset is just fine.
  2. Sell the card locally. Whether the deal is hammered out at a kitchen-table draft or you post to your town’s Magic Facebook page, it’s a face-to-face transaction that eliminates risk and fees. You could never sell 25 playsets this way, but a single set is easy peezy.
  3. Trade the set away. As we saw in the theoretical example, trading is a perfectly reasonable way to move a single set of cards. Chances are you can find at least one person who didn’t get in early yet still wants a personal set. You can trade your spare set for Standard cards you’re in need of, or just any decent Standard or Modern staple that you can turn into something more useful at a later date. Trading one or two sets is easy; trading twenty-five is nearly impossible.

As the number of extra cards you’re looking to sell increases, certain paths begin to close themselves off to you. Trading piles of playsets locally is going to be extremely time-consuming, if not impossible. When you’re in possession of only a single extra set, though, finding avenues to rid yourself of it is not difficult.

Playing with the House’s Money

If you’re a player, not a financier/hobbyist, your goal isn’t to supplement (or outdo) your professional income by swapping cardboard. Your goal is to play Magic. Magic is an expensive game, though, and the costs can catch up to you quickly. Through the technique of “one for me, one for TCGP,” you can ameliorate the high costs of card acquisition by doubling up on your purchases before cards rise in value. It’s a simple technique that’s low risk, easy to manage, and quite profitable given the effort involved.

You may be thinking, “Okay, great, but how do I know which cards are going to rise in price?” Well, dear reader, for the answer to that, keep tuning in to my and others’ articles!


 

PROTRADER: Magic Origins Set Review, Black

By: Travis Allen

Welcome to day three of the MTGPrice ProTrader Magic Origins spoilers. I’ll be covering black, which may be the deepest on playables of any color in this set.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

PROTRADER: Finishing [Strong/Weak/Not at All]

By: Travis Allen

Does everyone remember this article? If not, read it again. It’s going to be what we’re talking about today.

Last week, Derek wrote about how Khans of Tarkir would fare leading up to rotation. This is the first set that will rotate earlier than we expect it to. Rather than rotate in the fall of 2016, two years after its release, it will rotate during the spring of 2016. Dragons of Tarkir launched in late March and Battle for Zendikar will release in early October, meaning that KTK will lose about six months of Standard legality. While he has a grim outlook on the future of Khans, I’m not as certain we’re done with this block (well, Khans and Fate Reforged) yet.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.