By: Cliff Daigle

It’s here! It’s here! The whole spoiler is likely released today but most of it is known and it’s time to examine what these cards will do for our beloved casual formats.

Some points to keep in mind:

#1: If these see a lot of Standard/Modern/Legacy play, they will cost more. A given piece of information at this point, but I don’t play those formats heavily enough to predict those prices. I do play lots of Commander and Cube and random casual decks, and that’s what today will focus on.

#2: Expeditions may cause a glut. It’s been discussed ad nauseum at this point but just so we are clear: If people and stores crack lots of product in the search for Expeditions cards (so ugly, yet so profitable!) then everything else will be more available.

#3: Casual eldrazi/colorless decks are much more popular than you think they are. This is a key factor in why older eldrazi like It that Betrays had a higher price than you would have thought. At least, before it was reprinted. The hand-in-hand mechanics of ingest and processors will encourage these types of decks and will have a small effect on prices.

Let’s get to the cards!

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar – Zendikar was printed right as Commander was becoming an acknowledged format, but it wasn’t designed with the same awareness that cards have these days. Allies, like werewolves, are crying out for legendary support, but even more than that, they are looking for a repeatable way to trigger rally in old cards or new ones. Gideon is that way. I can see Gideon keeping a price of no less than $15 while in Standard but the token allies and the potentially repeatable emblem will make sure it never goes less than $10, even after he rotates.

 

Kiora, Master of the Depths – Her plus ability is neat and such a win in my Experiment Kraj deck, but the glory is really had in her -2 ability. Being able to draw one card is handy but in a significant number of activations that will be a -2 to draw two cards. The octo-fight ultimate is just amazing too. I think she won’t crack $15 during her life in Standard though.

 

Ob Nixilis Reignited – I love the simplicity of this card. Draw, kill, and eventually win. The inevitability of the ultimate, especially in multiplayer games, is just phenomenal. This is likely one of the most played cards in the set in any casual or constructed format, and a card that is just fine to draw multiples of. I’d be surprised if it went much below $20.

 

Sire of Stagnation – The parallels with Consecrated Sphinx are deserved, even if it’s a touch more conditional. No one has to play a land, but if they do, you get all the benefit. I’m not sure if this is worth the effort in a Sultai deck, playing cards like Collective Voyage and such, but it sure intrigues me. Since other players can simply not play lands for a turn or two, and this has no protection at all, I don’t think it will have a huge price, likely staying under $5.

 

Dragonmaster Outcast – This will be the nail in the coffin. The nigh price was entirely due to the age of the card and the low supply. The drop has begun and it won’t stop until it’s at $3 or less.

 

Greenwarden of Murasa – I think that this is a fixed Eternal Witness, not just in mana cost, but in the exile ability. I played in drafts where someone would have two and just loop them endlessly, like Gravediggers or Myr Retrievers. Ugh. Travis mentioned on Twitter this week that the Greenwarden is the perfect card to pair with See the Unwritten, and I would enjoy that interaction every time I thought I could get away with it. I don’t see this as a replacement for the Witness, and not every deck needs two or eight pieces of recursion like this. I want this to keep a price but I believe it will be available for under $2 pretty quickly.

 

Quarantine Field – There’s enough of this effect that I don’t see this seeing huge play. Oblivion Ring offers permanent exile shenanigans if you can bounce it at instant speed, that’s the sort of effect that gets a Commander player going. More casual decks will like how this scales…sort of. Four mana for the first, six for two targets, and eight mana for three. That works in Limited, but I would hesitate in Commander, since it’s pretty easy to kill the enchantment and get it back. Likely a bulk mythic.

 

Felidar Sovereign – Another card doomed for the bulk bin after being a quite expensive card, this was a mythic and is now a rare. Alternate win conditions are lots of fun, but this will not hold any sort of value.

 

Drana, Liberator of Malakir – First and foremost: she grows herself with every hit. That’s useful, but because of the timing, she has the chance to grow your army before regular damage is dealt. It does require an all-in sort of attack, where if Drana is killed before she hits then you’re going to take it on the chin, but it’ll upgrade creatures trading into a win for you under most circumstances. She’s a good vampire but not amazing, and will be a bulk mythic.

 

Part the Waterveil – There is always going to be a small market for extra-turn cards, but the new ones are never going to be as good as the old ones. This will be bulk but will take an extra week or two to get there. It’s notable that you do get a turn and a creature in one spell, which is pretty unusual but not worth it at nine mana.

 

Akoum Firebird – This is an okay variation on phoenixes, but six mana to bring back a 3/3 flying haste probably isn’t what most aggressive decks want to do. This, sadly, is going to be another bulk mythic.

 

Undergrowth Champion – I think this has potential in Standard. Not sure if it’s good enough in serious ramp decks, because this has to be in play first. I don’t think I would play it in an Omnath deck, as I’d prefer things to play with all that mana. It will see some play but not enough at kitchen tables to keep it above $2-$3.

 

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger – Ulamog’s first incarnation could be stopped by chump blocks and tokens. Annihilator 4 is a lot of sacrificing but I’ve seen people hold up well. Exiling twenty cards per attack is rather outstanding, though, and a very nice alternate win condition. This can be cheated into play, unlike the original, which is probably an upgrade for players. I think Ulamog will stay between $15-20 for the foreseeable future.

 

Void Winnower – Let’s just concede to the ‘can’t even’ jokes and acknowledge that this is awesome. We’ve never had an effect like this, outside of some of the red cards like Chaos Moon. I think that foils on this will have a real premium, and if a companion card is printed that affects evens, that will be even more expensive.

 

Oblivion Sower – As the promo foil in the duel deck, this card has no chance to hold a high price. Its effect is amazing and worth planning on, since it can be a big burst of mana if everything lines up right. Still, it’s going to be at $2 or less.

 

Omnath, Locus of Rage – This probably looks great in foil, and as a Commander, it will do a lot of damage. I’m not sold that this is better as its own Commander or if it fits beautifully into a Horde of Notions deck in order to give wrath insurance. By itself, though, it’s going to be a bulk mythic.

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By: Cliff Daigle

So the spoilers are rolling in this week and there’s a lot of excitement. I personally can’t wait to trigger the new Kiora’s ultimate, which Aaron Forsythe described on Twitter as ‘Octo-Fight’ and that is the best name for anything ever!

What I’m most intrigued by, though, is how the Eldrazi have the ingest mechanic and then have processor effects that make use of the exiled cards. So far, Oblivion Sower is the only one that can provide mega-value, since it can get back lots of lands at once.

This got me thinking, though. Since the Eldrazi want to see exiled cards and not just ones exiled with ingest, I want to look for the casual cards that can exile things and might see a spike if people start adding lots of Eldrazi to their Commander decks and the like.

Put another way: Two years ago, Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks became all the rage and some cards saw significant gains. I want to get ahead of those spikes this time, only instead of drawing and discarding as the key abilities, exiling is now the keyword I’m looking for.

One caveat: We don’t have the full spoiler so it’s possible that some of these are reprinted. If that’s the case, I’m totally wrong on the value.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver – As a rotating Planeswalker, I like picking him up now at a pretty low cost. He hasn’t seen much eternal play, but the ability to exile from the library, and then use those cards, is pretty sweet. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was $10 by Christmas.

Deathrite Shaman – This is a card that is too good for Modern, so you can imagine I’m a big fan in casual formats. You want some graveyard interactions for the long games or to stop things from looping, and this gives you a bonus every time you do. People should be playing this already, and so I think gains are unlikely.

Gravestorm – Exactly the type of card I’m looking for. It’s a rare from an older set, it’s got a low buy-in, and the effect is awesome. You get the exiling you want or you get to draw a card. Winners all around! I think this has a great chance to go up in value.

Nezumi Graverobber – If you haven’t played this before, consider doing so soon. I know the card is visually difficult, being a flip card, but a creature that says “4B: Zombify a creature” is worth the effort and the reading. It’s from Champions of Kamigawa and a reprint in the original Commander set, so while it might double to $1.50 it’ll be tough to see much cash profit.

Angel of Finality – I think this is an easy card to add to any white deck and more people should play her. A bump is unlikely, though.

Bitter Ordeal – While I’d like to see this cast for less than infinity, it pretty much only gets cast after some endless loop. Processors and the like will not affect this value.

Bojuka Bog – This would be a great pick to go up in price if it hadn’t been in three of the four Commander sets.

Cemetery Reaper – Even the foils of this are low, and while the ability is useful and relevant, there’s too many copies to make an impact.

Circu, Dimir Lobotomist – I sort of like this one, though the new Eldrazi are all explicitly colorless. There’s a surprisingly small number of ways to just exile the top of their deck. I would expect this to climb a dollar or two in the near future.

Creakwood Ghoul – It’s a way to gain some life but you have to spend a lot of mana. It’s not terrible, and there is lifegain, but the financial impact will be low.

Crypt Incursion – A useful effect, but it’s only creatures. I keep that in mind when I think about amazing Oblivion Sower plays.

Grimoire Thief – This has a lot of potential, but attacking more than once or twice might require too much work to make it worthwhile. Still, it fits my criteria of being an older rare and has a surprisingly useful effect. Just think how many lands Oblivion Sower gets if you’ve tapped the Thief a couple of times.

Honor the Fallen – A mass-effect version of Crypt Incursion. Find which you like best.

Identity Crisis – I love this card but it’s such a late-game play that it might not be worth it. Still, at less than fifty cents, it would be a low-risk speculation.

Jund Charm – One of the modes is relevant for the processors, and the other two modes are just handy to have. This has appeared in Modern sideboards, and might be worth keeping some foils around on.

Karn Liberated – He does exactly what the Eldrazi need, but the mana cost and the financial cost are just too high for our purposes.

Knacksaw Clique – I play this in my Experiment Kraj Commander deck, and it’s a great combo. Eldrazi will appreciate the ability and again, it’s a low-cost rare with the potential to go up.

Merrow Bonegnawer – Costs no mana, can be done more than once a turn, might be everything you want it to be.

Moratorium Stone – Choosing which card to exile is a good ability to have in Commander games, but I doubt there will be a run on this card.

Morningtide – It’s half of Rest in Peace at the same speed.

Necrogenesis – If only there had been a single printing of this! Or even only one foil! It’s what we want but the value will never be there.

Night Soil – There was a chance but no.

Oona, Queen of the Fae – Now we are talking. This is what Eldrazi of all sorts will feast upon: Scalable exile, and you get a benefit for doing so. There’s a lot of copies out there, though, so there might be only a modest increase in value due to her three versions. None is less than two years old, though.

Ornate Kanzashi – It’s five mana, yes, but if exile effects take off this is one of the ones that had a lot of power. It’s close to ‘draw a card’ and it fits all of our criteria for this speculative line of thought, since it’s a rare from Betrayers of Kamigawa.

Perilous Vault – It’s about to rotate and that means the price is up for grabs. I doubt it’ll be much lower, and it’s a worthy thing to buy a playset of and then set aside for a while. This is highly reprintable, though, just as a warning.

Pharika, God of Affliction – Mostly, I hate that your opponent gets the snake tokens, but when an Eldrazi comes along that can return exiled creatures to play (it’ll happen!) then this will get a lot better.

Phyrexian Furnace – Again, it does what we need, and it comes down early.

Planar Void – This or Leyline of the Void accomplish the same task, though they aren’t good if drawn late.

Psychic Surgery – If you’ve ever wanted to annoy people in Commander, cast this on turn two when people are still searching and fetching and such. If you can exile for value, this gets significantly better.

Rakdos Charm – I love having this in Commander, because so often you meet people going infinite shenanigans. It’s a shame that Twin players are ready for instants.

Rats’ Feast – It’s one shot and hits one graveyard. Not ideal but might be passable, and it’s a bulk rare. Not much can be lost if you bought twenty at ten cents each.

Relic of Progenitus – Just like Phyrexian Furnace, though I’m not sure how many of this effect a single deck wants.

Rest in Peace – A card I went deep on in the block and it hasn’t paid off yet. Maybe the Eldrazi are the ones that I’ve been waiting for? This sees a little sideboard play in Modern and Legacy, though, so there’s a chance.

Samurai of the Pale Curtain – Just like Anafenza, the Foremost, this prevents creature loops but doesn’t affect other card types.

Scavenging Ooze – Heck yes. There’s a lot of copies out there and while it does see light play in the older formats, there’s enough of them so that a big jump in price is pretty unlikely. Maybe just the promo, if you’re into that.

Scrabbling Claws – Third artifact with this set of abilities, even if it’s a minor set it’s nice to have redundancy..

Stonecloaker – For 2W, you can exile a card at instant speed in response to something, and then be ready to do it again if you so desire. That seems decent, but few of us keep the mana up before the hijinks start. It’s also had three printings, so if you want to have a chance at returns, go for the foils at $5 each. At the least, they won’t go down.

Suffer the Past – This is more of a game-ender, but at least it’s an X spell with X effect.

Tormod’s Crypt – A perfect card for our purposes, except that it’s been printed way too many times.

Villainous Wealth – Whatever you didn’t cast (lands!) you can return to the graveyard. You ought to be playing this anyway.

Void Maw – It’ll only have an effect after you’ve played this six-drop and the C13 cards aren’t that hard to find. I like it for a very modest gain.

Withered Wretch – This is so utility you should have it in your Cube already. The downside is that it’s got several printings and even multiple foils to choose from. Picking them up won’t break your bank but you are going to have a hard time moving these in quantity, unless there’s a severe and unexpected surge.

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By: Cliff Daigle

So the Battle for Zendikar preview event at PAX was last weekend, and there were some cards spoiled, and everyone went and lost their minds over the Expeditions, special foil-only, full-art lands that will show up a little more often than a foil mythic in booster packs.

My current understanding is that Battle for Zendikar will have 25 of these.  

I’ve seen a lot of people on Twitter and other articles decrying this super-mega-mythic chase rarity. I’ve added a little to those fires, I admit, trying to call these new lands “crappy duals” or “electrocution lands” (since they are worse than shock lands).

Allow me to say this clearly and rationally: Calm down about these new lands.

When foils were introduced, it was a nod to collectors. Mythics were introduced to improve Limited play but not having Planeswalkers as regular rares.

These Expedition lands are there for the same crowd as the Comic-Con black Planeswalkers: collectors. If you care about having one of these new lands, you’re in the same boat as people paying for the judge foil Terese Nielsen lands, or the promo Force of Will, or having the old-frame Swords of X and Y.

Two years ago, I asked, “Are you a Collector?” and I hope you know the answer to that question in yourself. If you have had the thought about these lands “I can’t wait to snag an Expeditions Steam Vents! But oh my goodness, what are four of them going to cost me?!” then you’re a collector.

Let me reiterate: These super-duper-mega-mythic cards are not new. These are reprints! This supply will be rather small and not affect current paper prices all that much.

I’m also of the opinion that these are UGLY. These aren’t full-art. These aren’t Player Rewards full art, or Game Day full art, with or without the bars across the text that they started doing recently. These are three-quarters art, with a weird hedron frame, and semi-see-through as Planeswalkers are.

If I open one of these, I’m going to move it out. I’m going to ask for the moon in trade and I’m going to get it from someone with more cards than sense. I know it could fit into almost any Commander deck of mine, and I don’t care. If I need fetches, they are already in decks. If I need filters or shocks, I’ll take care of that, likely on the cheap. 

To me, the play on these lands is to get rid of them. Looking at the judge foil fetches, they didn’t see a spike or a loss when it was announced that they would be in Khans of Tarkir, and so whatever the initial price is, that’s what they will stay at for the duration. Go ahead and hold it till the end of the block if you want, but I would be more than stoked to open these and then trade them for a big stack of regular shock lands, or anything else that you wanted to have.

How much would I ask for? Everything. Collectors want these things bad, and you should give it to them. Don’t be afraid to say “Well, this Expeditions Polluted Delta closed an eBay auction at $200, so I’d want $250 to $300 in retail value of cards.” These cards are going to be hard to find and even harder to dig up in trade, especially at the beginning.

I’m also going to refer you to two ProTrader articles earlier this week, explaining in more detail about what these lands are and how they affect the other cards around them.

As for the speculation about why Wizards did this, I think it’s to give an echo of what they did in Zendikar with the Treasures campaign, only this time, they are being upfront about it. There was never any official data revealed about how many of which card was opened, and while there were Power cards opened, there was also Cyclopean Tomb.

This time, we will know exactly what’s out there and about how many of them there are. Is this better or worse than what happened in 2009? Does having the information make the quest easier or harder?

I would object to super-mega-rarity if it was for new cards. Mythics aren’t that hard to find, but a fifth rarity is a concern. Since these are reprints, though, it’s not a big deal. Imagine if these Expeditions were given out as judge foils or a special event or something or other.

One thing seems like a given: Battle for Zendikar will be the most opened set in Magic history. Don’t expect anything from this set to have legs, financially.

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By: Cliff Daigle

I can admit it: I have four Hero’s Downfall left in my binder

They are still with me despite doing all I could to get rid of them in the months leading up to today. They sit there, tormenting me with their fallen value, their reminder of how they were over $10 at one point.

It’s a great card, don’t get me wrong, but since it’s rotating in a little more than a month there’s almost no one who needs them and zero people who will buy them. It sees almost no Modern or Legacy play, and while it’s a great card in Commander or Cube, it’s not a staple and it’s very common.

So I’m going to slide these four cards out of my binder and put them into a box of cards I’d like to make money on, but I likely won’t see an increase in value for some time. Call it a spec box, call it binder chaff, whatever label you want. I’m not going to to carry them around any more.

I like to look for cards that do something unique, and have a few of them set aside for the time when someone builds a deck that does something bananas, and sell into that spike. Think Lantern of Insight and the like.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx ($6/$31)

This is a tricky one to evaluate. Nykthos has showed up a little in Modern lists, but the foil split indicates that there’s a very strong demand in singleton formats like Commander and Cube. To be fair, the card is absolutely a win-more enabler, making gobs of mana when you already have a lot of permanents out there. Gaea’s Cradle is worse than a basic forest when you have no creatures in play.

I’m going to advocate holding your copies of Nykthos. Being in Magic 2015’s Clash Pack put some extra copies out there but it has good appeal and in a year or two I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s gone up by 50% or more.

 

Sylvan Caryatid ($2/$5/$5 promo)

This is also making a small dent in Modern, popping up in four-color Gifts Ungiven decks that are trying to combo off at maximum speed. It’s okay in kitchen table formats, and as a creature that has hexproof and taps for mana, it’ll often find a home in combo decks or the like.

This was a buy-a-box promo and that does chip away at the price for the foils and for people who need only one. At rotation, I’ll be looking for copies under $1 to sock away for a while.

 

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion ($6/$14/$6 Duel Deck foil)

Having a duel deck version doesn’t faze me on picking up more than a few of the latest (and last?) Elspeth. Her abilities play together exceptionally well, and the only thing she can’t hold off is a swarm of tiny fliers. Her earlier incarnations have held up well, financially, and Knight-Errant is so good that it took several printings to bring her under $20, to her current $14.

I think that Elspeth won’t ever see a big spike, but she will see steady upward growth in the next couple of years. That’s one of the easiest ways to increase the value in my binder: Just be patient.

 

Master of Waves ($4/$10)

I wouldn’t mind having a spare playset of these to just tuck away and wait. They aren’t going to go any lower, as they fit well in token decks and Merfolk decks alike.

 

Garruk, Apex Predator ($8/$21)

This Garruk and Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker share a unique characteristic: They are able to kill other Planeswalkers for profit. That makes them wonderful to have in Commander games.

The rule has often been to pick up any planeswalker at $5 or less, but I don’t think Garruk will come down that far. I’m still happy to acquire copies at less than $10 and simply wait. He’s got a promo from San Diego Comic-Con that I wouldn’t chase very hard, but incremental growth over time will serve this one well.

 

Perilous Vault ($4/$13)

Another unique effect, and one that fits very well into colorless sweepers. It lacks the one-sided effect of Nevinyrral’s Disk plus Darksteel Forge, but it is an awesome answer to that same combo. I love having options for exiling permanents in Commander games, but this is easily reprintable. I wouldn’t keep more than two playsets for the long term for that reason.

 

Searing Blood ($.80/$5)

This is mostly a pass for me. Standard burn decks are packing this card, and while Legacy and Modern have Searing Blaze, which is both better and worse, depending on what your thought process is. Searing Blaze does give us a reference point, as it’s a touch more expensive than Searing Blood, but it’s not crazy-high. I’m not convinced that it’ll make huge inroads, as it’s mostly found in small sideboard quantities.

 

Nyx-Fleece Ram ($1/$4)

I think that this is in a tight race with Wall of Omens for a crucial spot that Wall of Denial used to occupy: The go-to place to stay safe from aggressive decks. At rotation, this should fall a little further and I would be happy to grab a few.

There are a lot of other cards that will likely go up, so tell me in the comments what you think is good value for a year or two from now.