Double The Floor, Double the Value!

Yes, we are neck-deep in Zendikar Rising (The Age of Omnath?) and we’re getting Commander Legends previews starting soon.

It’s crazy that we’re getting those previews even though the set itself is delayed a bit. It’s going to be a super frantic period, as all the legends cause all sorts of spikes and drops. Be prepared for that.

However, there’s a different set of opportunities available to us right now: Double Masters is probably near its bottom, now that we are two months past the release. A lot of the value is in the VIP boosters, the Box Toppers in foil and nonfoil. A lot of the future value is yet to be gained, though, and that’s because these are reprints of staples that will go back up.

It’s time to buy low, before we sell high.

Remember that this set has double the rares, two per pack, and two foils per regular pack. I’m going to focus on the nonfoils for a specific reason: I hate storing large quantities of foils due to curling. The prices of foils and nonfoils have become very close, thanks to the increased foil drop rate and the high-end focus on Extended Art and Box Toppers. If you’d prefer to focus on foils, I don’t think that’s wrong, I just have my preference. 

One more caveat that applies to all of these: Commander Legends is likely to have some of these as well. Since these are staples, there’s a chance to buy in when the price is even lower! The other case is, if it’s not printed, then it’s going to go up quickly as people build new decks.

Cyclonic Rift ($17) – This was $40 earlier in the year, and might hit $10 if it’s reprinted again this year. I hope it does, because that’s super easy money. This is as staple as staple gets, being in 40% of decks that can run it, 82,000 decks registered online. I don’t think I need to tell you how good it is. The card was $5ish for the longest time, thanks to regular reprints: Commander 2014, Modern Masters 2017, and now Double Masters. 

Cyclonic Rift is a very good Commander card that can’t be reprinted enough for the demand that exists. Just about every blue deck ought to run it, and most do. You have to decide what you’re going to do, though, before we find out about if it’s in Commander Legends or not: prepare to buy at this price, or prepare to buy in around the first of the year. Rift was never a mythic, always a rare, with regular supply injections. It’ll hit $40 again eventually.

Mana Reflection ($10) – First of all, there’s about a $10 gap between the Shadowmoor version and the 2XM version. It’s not the old frame, so that’s purely price memory. Secondly, there’s a big gap between cards that do the same thing when it comes to EDHREC: 

I’ll give you that the card draw is a big game when is comes to Zendikar Resurgent, and yes, Wake is one mana less, but for the longest time Mana Reflection just wasn’t available for under $30, and that put a damper in the number of people who added it to decks. Wake and Resurgent were very good and loads cheaper. Mana Reflection is a very good card, and one that people will start adding to decks now that it’s cheaper, but it won’t stay there for long. Remember that this doubles the output of all your permanents, where the other two enchantments are just one extra mana for lands only. A card that was this limited in supply is expected to take a dive, but once it’s featured someplace, it’ll at least climb to $20 and match the original printing.

Doubling Season ($40) – Let’s look at a graph, which shows how resilient this card is to reprints: 

Every time this has been printed, it’s made a comeback. I’d understand if you didn’t want to spec on the card, given that it’s a $40 buy-in, but what you should do, at the very least, is get the copies you’ll personally be using. Now is a good time to get in on the Box Topper in foil or nonfoil, if that’s an art/style you prefer. I like the regulars because it’s still a mythic and it’s the cheapest copy of an effect you can’t get anywhere else. Grab the ones you need, plus one or two, so that when you build a new deck you don’t feel dumb paying an extra $20.

Walking Ballista ($8) – Let’s see, I wonder if a Secret Lair printing and the 2XM printing at once affected the price:

Oh look, it’s a glorious buying opportunity for all of us. It’s up to you if you prefer the Secret Lair art (I gloriously do, but to each their own) but you can snag this for $8 when it was $25 at the beginning of the year. It’s an easy way to deal infinite damage off of infinite mana, but it’s also good with a lot of other synergies. Being in 14k Commander decks online helps a lot with that.

Again, I like picking up the cheapest versions, but you can raid TCG for the Secret Lair versions that are under $25. That seems quite solid to me as well, considering that the initial rush had these as high as $60. Patience, as always, pays off in Magic finance.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Unlocked Pro Trader: You Down With DFC?

Readers!

After playing some games of Magic: the Gathering with the cards from Return to Return to Zendikar, I have to say, the DFCs are much better than I had anticipated. I liked a few of them – namely cards that were just fine as cards and where the ability to flip them over and play them as the card on the back was gravy. Valakut Awakening needn’t be a DFC to get play, for example.

Valakut Awakening

A personal Wheel that gets played at Instant speed, doesn’t require you to Discard cards, doesn’t require you to wheel your entire hand and which doesn’t net you -1 card is frankly pretty absurd. Do you NEED the ability on the back? Certainly not, not. However, it’s there should you need it, mitigating mana screw, ensuring you ramp up, and saving you from discard effects if you’re playing a card like Meloku that lets you pick a land up and put it back in your hand to be played as a Wheel later. It was obvious to a lot of people that this was good, and it’s currently the #5 played DFC per EDHREC, the first that doesn’t have a land on both sides.

It’s becoming clear the more I play that the DFCs are much better than just “good spell plus gravy” and players are playing the DFC lands a lot more than we’d anticipated. I want to look at each one and talk about whether or not it could get more play and, given how there is basically a 0% chance they’re ever reprinted outside of a very specific supplemental set, which ones could potentially be worth more later than they are right now. Let’s make a boring chart, first.

I sorted by Percentage of decks the way EDHREC does, but either way, the cards that are overperforming relative to their rarity will be obvious so how you sort doesn’t matter a ton. You notice what I notice right off the bat?

Recovery is performing better than a lot of rares and all of the Mythics. The 1 mana more than Regrowth is trivial in EDH and being able to play a land on the back is just gravy. This is exactly the card Recollect with upside.

Recollect sees a non-zero amount of play. Granted, quite a bit of that has to do with players just having a bulk uncommon lying around and Regrowth costing more until recently. There’s no real reason other than “I grabbed what I had on my desk” for not playing Bala Ged Recovery if you think Recollect is fine (it is. It’s fine). I don’t know if non-foils are a great investment, but I do think foils have some upside.

Under $3, I think foils of this are just fine. I don’t like foils, personally, but these are hard to reprint and I like that. Recovery is a good card and I think people are going to realize that more and more.

Basically anything we can say about Bala Ged Recovery, we can say about this except that there really isn’t an analogous card to this getting play. A novel spell with upside is very tempting. Black doesn’t get a ton of flicker effects and this takes some work but it saves a creature in a pinch. I am adding this to my Gonti deck, for one.

This is even cheaper but its future is a little less certain. However, despite a lack of an analogous card to compare it to, this is seeing quite a bit of play, it’s performing better than half of the mythics and a third of the rares and whenever you get an uncommon doing that well, it doesn’t hurt to look at foils. Under $2 this seems like a strong pickup and I could see this hitting $5 if it continues to see play. I think Bala Ged Recovery is much better but I think I can still recommend this as well.

I mentioned this at the top, but this card is very, very good. It’s not a strict replacement for a wheel all the time – it’s not good in Nekusar, for example. However, lots of Red players swear by Wheel of Fortune as a way to reload their hand even if it benefits opponents and this doesn’t do that. There are plenty of other wheels already in Nekusar, so why not give The Locust God a new toy that Boros decks can use to turn dead land drops late in the game into gas? This doesn’t play the same as Wheel but it doesn’t have to, it does quite a bit of work and people are on board, it seems. If Card Kingdom is getting $5 for this, you can confidently pay $3 on TCG Player imo, and when Card Kingdom is getting $8 for this, they’ll be paying $5.25 in store credit, but I would try to get out for cash. I think this is a good card and it’s going to get more play when people test it, not less.

Trade Routes is a card I have liked in landfall decks for some time, but it was always so cheap it didn’t seem worth mentioning. It spiked precipitously with the printing of Omnath, Locus of the Roil and is beginning to sell out at its “old Omnath” price because it’s also good in new Omnath but also it’s great at picking up a DFC land and letting you replay it as a spell if you want, or flip the mana it produces. If you can get these under $4 still, do so because this is on its way to $10 despite the large number of printings.

Meolku is another excellent way to pick up lands and give them another chance to be something different and it gives you some dorks, to boot. It had a Masters set printing, which hurts the insane foil multiplier, but setting this back to $1 so it could climb back up was a blessing. I wish I had snagged more when it bottomed out, but I had other fish to fry back then and I would have been sitting on them a long time. There’s still money to be made here, I guess, but I mostly included this to remind you to play it.

That does it for me, everyone. Next week we’ll have some more data to parse and soon we’ll get Commander Legends spoilers trickling in. Can’t stop, won’t stop! Join me next time for more hard-hitting analysis. Leave a comment in the comments section if you’d like to see the article I wrote about the Captain format and had to scrap 5 hours later. Until next time!

The Watchtower 10/05/20 – Oops, All Spells!

Between the rather lacklustre banning of Uro in Standard and the new Walking Dead Secret Lair, nobody seems to be particularly happy with anything Wizards are doing at the moment. Standard is still a mess, but other formats seem to be a lot healthier (except for Captain, which lasted all of a day, lol).

But people are doing absurd things with Omnath in Modern and Pioneer, and EDH keeps on EDHing regardless of Secret Lair cards, so let’s forget about the bad stuff for a second and focus on some really good spells.

Hour of Promise (Foil)

Price today: $5
Possible price: $15

The appropriately named “Uro Piles” decks in Modern have started playing the new Omnath, Locus of Creation that’s been ruining the Standard metagame since before Zendikar Rising’s release, and are really stretching the limit of what’s possible with their manabases. Even with Arcum’s Astrolabe banned from the format, we’re still seeing Omnath right next to Cryptic Command and Supreme Verdict…and all the while playing Field of the Dead and Field of Ruin in the deck.

To help with these (admittedly self-imposed) problems, people have started playing Hour of Promise – both to fix colours and power out an early Field of the Dead to start dropping Zombies into play. On top of that, the card is a moderately popular EDH card, currently in around 6k lists recorded on EDHREC – but the important thing to notice is that it’s being playing in 77% of Omnath, Locus of Creation decks as well as being a high pick for landfall strategies in general. This recent uptick in popularity in both casual and competitive formats has meant that foils have been draining out, and only a few remain now.

Foils start at $5 on TCGPlayer, but with only 12 NM listings (and only one of those with more than one copy), it won’t take much for those to disappear and a new floor to be set at $10 or $15. Major vendors are almost all out (go check CoolStuffInc though) except for a few LP copies, and supply isn’t too deep on MKM either. If you think you’ll ever want a foil one of these then I’d grab it now, because this is going to be $15+ in a few months.

Valakut Awakening (EA Foil)

Price today: $8
Possible price: $20

Despite others’ excitement about it, I wasn’t fully convinced by Valakut Awakening when we first saw the card previewed. Everyone was saying it was a great one-sided Wheel effect, but I couldn’t help but imagine how many times you’re only going to draw a couple of cards with it. I’m happy to say I’ve come around since then though. I don’t think that comparing it to Wheel is very helpful, but if you take this as its own card it can be some pretty powerful card selection.

Anyway, the stats speak for themselves, and this is already one of the top EDH cards from ZNR. Red is generally lacking in card selection, and so being able to choose which cards you Wheel away whilst also having them back in your deck instead of in your graveyard makes the applications for this wider than Wheel of Fortune might be, especially seeing as it’s a one-sided effect. It’s far less of a combo or synergy card and more just good value. But I haven’t even talked about the fact that this is a land, too! Albeit a tapped land on the other side, this means that you can almost replace a land with this card in your EDH deck, which is many EDH players’ dreams – people hate cutting cards.

Only being found in Collector Boosters, EA foils are never going to have a glut of supply, and so especially with rares (as opposed to mythics) I prefer picking up the more premium versions here rather than the regular versions, which there are a tonne of and will move much more slowly. EA foils start around $8 on TCGPlayer, which seems pretty low for one of the most popular EDH cards from the set (7th on raw deck numbers). Give it 12 months and I can easily see this as a $20 card.

Assassin’s Trophy (Foil)

Price today: $22
Possible price: $40

Despite only having been release two years ago (to the day, in fact), Assassin’s Trophy has climbed past a multitude of other EDH staples to become one of the most popular multicoloured cards played in the format. Clocking in at almost 24k decks registered on EDHREC, it makes the top 10 lists for both multicolour cards and Instants, earning its place among the best of the best. As well as this, it’s proved itself a solid roleplayer in competitive formats too, being played in a multitude of decks in Modern, Pioneer and Legacy.

Continued popularity and competitive applications mean that Assassin’s Trophy foils are creeping up and up, and I think it’ll be an easy train to ride along with. I don’t see this being reprinted too soon – it could show up in Commander Legends but I honestly doubt we’ll see it there. Barring a reprint there, the cheaper copies of this card are going to keep draining out until it’s $40 without anyone noticing.


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK and a new writer for MTGPrice in 2020, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

The Fateful Eight

We’re pretty well set in Zendikar right now, and so far, we don’t have many updates about Commander: Legends. 

What’s coming, though, is that in about eight weeks, you can buy Commander Collection: Green, an eight-card reprint set available in foil and nonfoil. We know the cards, we know the dates. We also know that the distribution model is surprisingly clear-cut, though actually getting the cards is going to be trickier than you think.

First, the basics. Eight cards, December 8, 2020. All WPN stores can get the regular version of this, and I found it pre-ordering online for $50 pretty easily. What you can’t easily find is a preorder for the foil version, only available at Premier-level WPN stores. As a point of reference, there are 48 of those stores in the continental US.

Just as an idea, if I saw the premium version on sale for $150 or less, I’d buy it. Two of these cards have never been in foil before, there’s new art on all of them, and the super-limited quantity is very attractive to collectors.

Let’s talk about these cards and where I expect prices to go. 

Bane of Progress (nonfoils are $8) – There’s no foils of this, and it hasn’t been printed enough to bring the price down farther. It’s at that sweet spot where one printing every few years keeps the supply and demand balanced. The price has trended upwards, even given the loss of a dollar since the Collection was announced:

I’d expect this version of the card to start out at $8 and trend upwards. Preorders for the nonfoil generally bear that out, but this is one of the first-time foils. I can’t find anyone preselling individual foils, so my guess is that these start at $30, spike to $50+, and settle in at about $40. It’s entirely possible that I’m way off, though: There’s only going to be a few thousand foils in existence.

Command Tower (nonfoils are $1, foils are at $90/$150) – The nonfoil should be a buck, given that all the other versions are the same. Maybe $2, if you’re lucky. 

The foil version, that’s primed for a huge ticket. We’ve got the Judge foil for about $150, and the Commander’s Arsenal version for $90. Given that, I’d say $100 is a safe bet and maybe $200 is possible. The CA version is most likely the rarest, based on numbers and age, but the allure of this super-rare and newer version will have an effect too. Plus, people have shown that the CA foiling process is too close to the FTV process and is therefore less desired. The only thing stopping me from going further on that is that Commander Legends is going to have foil Extended Art versions of the Tower. That’s going to soak up some of the demand and some of the money.

Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury ($13 foil, same for nonfoil) – So the original version in C14 was nonfoil, but the Commander Anthology gave us regular-size foil versions. We can compare apples to apples here, and I wouldn’t expect the prices to be high on this. Somewhere around $8-$10 for the nonfoil, and something reasonable like $20 or less for the nonfoil. I’m not expecting people to pay a huge bonus for something still in the same frame. The original isn’t a huge card in Commander but it is listed in 5000 decks online.

Omnath, Locus of Mana ($30 nonfoil, $45 FTV, $120 pack foil) – This price is reflective of a tiny supply: original Worldwake (January 2010), and FTV: Legends (August 2011). That’s nine years, and it was a mythic in the original! The Commander demand isn’t high enough for this price. I’m expecting a pretty severe correction here, and if you have spare Omnaths, I’d be a seller. It’s going to be hard for the nonfoil to hold a price of $20, as people buy their set and sell off what they aren’t using. The foil should be somewhere in the $60-$80 range, I think, even with new art and the appeal of being in this set, the demand just won’t be there. 

Seedborn Muse (nonfoils $10-$17, foils $25-$200) – There’s a lot of outliers here because the original printing was waaaay back in Legions, that’s 2003 and older than a lot of current players. This is one of the iconic Commander cards, being in 29,000 decks and causing endless eyerolls. It’s also quite the rollercoaster when it comes to reprints, see if you can spot the reprint timing:

Each time it was printed, it recovered. Seedborn is a card that works in so many decks, I imagine a lot of copies that get opened don’t make it to the market. Price-wise, I expect the nonfoil to be around $7 but then climb upwards again until its next reprint. For the foils, we have a lower boundary of $25 from Battlebond and the $200 from Legions. I suspect the new foil will be above the 9th/10th edition prices, but not too high. Somewhere around $75 sounds right after the dust has settled.

Sol Ring (nonfoils about $2-$3, foils from $40-$500) – The nonfoil should land in the area of all the other nonfoil Commander printings, maybe a little higher. They are just everywhere! The foils, though, there’s some competition going on. The FTV is $45 or so, with the Magicfest version right there, but the only other foil versions are the Judge foil at $400+ and the Masterpiece at $500+.

I don’t think this is a $100 version, especially if we get an EA foil version in Commander Legends. Somewhere around $60 feels right for this.

Sylvan Library ($40 for nonfoils, $110 foils) – I’m not counting the Legends version yet, because it’s so old and so rare, it warps data. The Library is in a whopping 40k Commander decks online, about 1 in 5 decks that can run it do so. This $40 price makes you feel real good if you bought in during EMA:

A solid riser and a Commander staple, with foils from EMA and Commander’s Arsenal. I suspect this version will be the most expensive foil, both because not many are going to be printed and because lots of people who buy this set are going to slot the card into a deck. I’m hoping the Library falls in price back down to the $20 range, so I can make a ton off of it again.

Worldly Tutor ($30 for nonfoil) – This is no slouch in the Commander world, being in 26k decks, pretty impressive for a card that was only in Mirage and then an uncommon in 6th edition. The current price feels like it has room to drop, given that it puts the card on top of your deck instead of in your hand. Tutoring effects have gotten better, but there’s a lot of combo potential with Worldly Tutor. 

I am pretty sure that the nonfoil will drop to $15, give or take, but the foils are another matter. I won’t be shocked if those crack $100 in the initial frenzy, and die down into the $80 range.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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