Jumping the Start

Look, I get it. We have Core 2021 leaks/previews going on now, we’re about to start preview season in earnest. 

We also have Double Masters coming up soon, and what feels like tons of Mystery Boosters on their way to retailers.

We might even get our local stores open soon! We know we aren’t getting any MagicFests in 2020, but today I want to focus on a product called Jumpstart that is going to be released in about six weeks. 

Let’s dive in with what we know and what value is to be gained.

First, the basics. We’re looking at the official Jumpstart page and the Draftsim aggregation. We’re getting more than 500 cards in this set, a number that would have seemed ludicrous before Mystery Booster showed up and blew us away.

There are exactly 37 new cards in this set, legal only in Commander, Vintage, and Legacy. This is where the value is likely going to be concentrated, but we’ll come back to that in a moment. We’re also getting about 120 reprints from Core 2021, leaving us 350 reprints of existing cards. We don’t know yet if there’s going to be foils, or Box Toppers, or Showcase cards of some kind. 

We did get told that there’s no foils, but I’d be surprised if there were no special versions, and special can mean a lot of things. 

The set is designed to be played like this: Grab two packs (20 cards to a pack) and combine them together. Each booster has a theme that won’t be apparent from the outside, and this is designed to be this sort of mix-and-play experience. If you dig randomness (which I truly do!) then this promises to be fun.

What I want to think about is that with 350 reprints and a short list of known themes, there’s some higher risk-of-reprints out there that I want to get out of. 

Here’s the list of themes alluded to so far, and keep in mind that some of the themes are ‘Mythic Rare’, meaning that they will have only one set of 20, whereas other themes can have a random selection of themed cards. For each of these, I’m going to list a likely reprint and a dream reprint. We don’t have pricing for this yet either. This is only part of the 46 themes, too. The cards in this set are going to be Historic-legal too, and that will inform the picks I’m making.

“Above the Clouds” (Quite likely flying as a theme)
Should be: Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Will be: Sephara, Sky’s Blade
Flying is UW territory, and Linvala hasn’t been printed in a couple of years. Sephara is a payoff for playing a bunch of small flyers, and bringing her back in sequential Core Sets is not a huge deal. 
Cats 
Should be: Brimaz, King of Oreskos
Will be: Brimaz, King of Oreskos
This is a pretty easy call, as Brimaz hasn’t been printed in forever and has a good price tag. That price will drop, though, so you should move out on the extra copies you have in your binder.
Doctor
Should be: Yawgmoth, Thran Physician
Will be: Liliana, Heretical Healer
I don’t think they are going to go Cleric here, and these two line up nicely in terms of characters and abilities. 
Eldrazi
Should be: It that Betrays
Will be: Void Winnower
I don’t think they are going to add any other legendary Eldrazi to Historic, and It That Betrays would be too awesome given all the sacrifice triggers running around. Void Winnower fits with the recent even/odd cards they’ve printed.
Elf
Should be: Norwood Priestess
Will be: Beast Whisperer
Too many people have never played with a more fair Timmy, Power Gamer, and this would make me super happy. Oracle of Mul Daya is another juicy target, but I think in the end we’re going to get a boring, efficient, and inexpensive card.
Garruk
Should be: Garruk, Apex Predator
Will be: Garruk Wildspeaker
I don’t think they’ll do two colors in these packs, so we’ll get the OG version who has never been able to get expensive or cheap, because of strong demand and regular reprints. I’d expect his Packleader, Horde, and Companion to come along as well.
Goblins
Should be: Dockside Extortionist
Will be: Goblin Wizard
This is a pipe dream of mine. The Wizard is impressively efficient if allowed to live, and breaks the mirror right in half. Extortionist needs a reprint badly, even though Limited isn’t the best spot for this ability the price is too high and will fall abruptly when it’s reprinted.
Hounds
Should be: Isamaru, Hound of Konda
Will be: Isamaru, Hound of Konda
I’m surprised to find that this goodboye hasn’t had a reprint since the original appearance in Champions of Kamigawa. He is a Mystery Booster foil, but given that we aren’t ever going to get to open much of the Retail Edition, I don’t think that has a huge bearing. I understand, those of you who are mad at the wide range of Cats, but Hounds are a tiny subtribe.
Phyrexians
Should be: Phyrexian Altar
Will be: Phyrexian Crusader
I want the big value here, from a card that just blew by being reprinted in Ultimate Masters. Another reprint wouldn’t keep it down for long. Instead, we will get middling value and a wrecking ball of a Limited card. 
Pirates
Should be: Dockside Extortionist
Will be: Hostage Taker
I know I said they’d avoid two colors, but there’s nothing more ‘what’s yours is mine’ than the UB pirate, but this would be a stunning place to get the Extortionist too.
Spooky
Should be: Kokusho, the Evening Star
Will be: Ghostway
This is just a guess, but Lingering Souls at rare would be understandable too. That card is far too busted at uncommon.
Unicorns
Should be: Feast of the Unicorn
Will be: ????They are going to print some new Unicorn here that will be worth money.
Vampires
Should be: Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
Will be: Vampire Nocturnus
Vampires sorely need a lord, a payoff, and this is it. Historic Vamps will totally be a thing, and a fun one if you like a touch of chaos. I’m quite certain that in M10 they never figured White as the secondary color for the Vampire tribe.
Walls
Should be: Tree of Perdition
Will be: Tree of Perdition
Sure, Bant gets stuff like Arcades to animate walls, but I’m eager to see this killer wall come back into vogue.
Wizard
Should be: Thrasios, Triton Hero
Will be: Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
I won’t be shocked if all the Origins flip-walkers are in this set. They are neat to play with and quite fair. Thrasios isn’t, and I shudder to think of a Historic format where this and Kinnan are both payoffs for big mana decks.

Even if my picks are wrong, Jumpstart is going to offer us money. It’s meant to be a fun summer diversion, something that will perfectly fill downtime at a MagicFest or other events. Instead, it’s going to be crammed between other releases: Core 2021, the flagship of summer, and Double Masters, the high-value reprint festival. There will be a very short window to buy this and play this, and that means you should stock up on the reprints (not a lot of copies going into circulation) and the new cards (ditto) when we’re all going gaga for the cards in Double Masters.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Unlocked Pro Trader: The Re-Forgotten Set

Readers!

Last week I wrote about something I called a “forgotten set” and I promptly forgot about it because I had to click on the article I wrote last week and re-read it to refresh my memory. I forgot about the forgotten set and I bet you did, too, so check out last week’s article and then immediately click on this one and keep reading as if it was one, long, continuous article so I don’t have to rehash all of the things I said about the set but you probably didn’t need to read this paragraph again why did you read this paragraph again?

One thing I didn’t cover last week was the new foils. When they had Mystery Booster, convention edition, they had those wacky playtest cards in the packs. They were fun, Gavin had a good time designing them, they broke the game in a “who gives a damn, this is a side event at a GP and the point of buying in was to get the boosters and drop so congrats for staying, here’s a busted card for funsies” sort of way. I don’t want to bust that at home, though, so they (correctly) replaced those silly playtest cards with foils to make the Mystery Booster home game even more fun. Those foils are nuts and they’re worth a look.

I’m no foil expert, but even with this being very, very scarce (only printed in a core set no one was excited about) it cutting in half overnight means there is a lot of room to grow considering this is a 1:120 pull in a set no one really bought. Its rarity doesn’t matter, all foils have a 1:120 chance of being pulled. That is a small increase in supply. If people are right about the sudden resurgence in cEDH as a major finance player and aren’t merely justifying their lazy targeting of Reserved List cards, surely a cEDH card like this which is being printed for the second time ever in foil is in play? I think this is a solid pickup and due to the low supply trickling through shuttered Local Game Stores, the price is ticking up already. You won’t get out at $35, but you won’t lose money after fees, either.

This card was EXTREMELY scarce and I wouldn’t recommend it if I didn’t think the amount of additional supply was small enough to be outstripped and if the price wasn’t already beginning to equilibrate. Don’t catch a falling knife and all that, but I think Jimminy Cricket said to hitch your wagon to a rising star. Or something, I don’t know, I just like this card at its current price.

I realize that New Phyrexia doesn’t grow on trees, but we are talking about a formerly $25 card gettable for $4 on ABU. There is just no literal way you don’t make money here. I don’t like foils and I think EDH foil demand is overstated and I just can’t fathom you not making money on a card that was buylisting for $20 a couple of months ago. I should move this to the end of the article. Actually, forget the rest of the article, this is the end, buy this and just mint money.

This is ONE dollar. It’s a foil of a ridiculous card and I realize no one knows what this is and what it does until I play it and they get mad at me. I realize I don’t make YouTube videos where I’m right 20% of the time and therefore don’t have the power to move a card on my own. I realize all that and yet, I see a card that flirted with $30 available for $1 as a foil and I think “How could I resist?” I wanted a bunch of nonfoils for a deck and they were $7 each so I held off. I’m glad I did because now the foil is cheaper than the non-foil. That happens sometimes. I still want the non-foils to play with and I’ll pay the $2, I guess, but come on. I don’t think you can go wrong buying a former $7 nonfoil card in foil for $1.

This former $13 foil is now gettable for $1. The non-foil is $2. I think you just look at the list of all of the foils in this set and if it costs half as much as the non-foil version and it’s played in EDH, you take a risk. I realize the price was high due to scarcity, but this wasn’t a $1 foil in 2013. This card is absurd and to be able to pay $1 for a playable copy is great, let alone a copy some would value above the non-foils. You’ll see what I mean about EDH demand for foils being overstated if these climb more slowly than the non-foil, which I think will happen, but I also think you literally can’t miss buying this for $1.

I think the foils are a lot more scarce than people might think, stores will have a very hard time restocking with nowhere to buy in person meaning the prices will recover faster than ever before and we have foil versions of EDH staples that are significantly cheaper than the non-foil counterparts. Either the foils stabilize higher or this competition brings down the price of the non-foil, giving you a cheaper buy-in opportunity on those cards. Either way, pay attention to what happens to a lot of these $1 and $2 foils from this set that aren’t dumb cards like Greater Mossdog and Hornet Sting. Real EDH demand will raise one of both prices, both of which are deflated right now.

That does it for me this week. Stay safe out there and think about buying more than normal right now. Until next time!

The Watchtower 06/01/20 – Miscellaneous

I knew that I wanted to talk about a particular product (wonder what that could be?) in this week’s article and so decided that today would have to be a mixed bag of odds and ends – but don’t take that to mean that these aren’t good specs! I think there are some excellent opportunities here, so read on for some bits and pieces of miscellaneous value.


Secret Lair: Heart of Steel

Price today: $40
Possible price: $70

This is a bit of a different pick to normal for me, but I think it could well be a good one. There are five news Secret Lair Drops going live very shortly after I’ll be posting this article, and the catchily named “Can You Feel With a Heart of Steel?” looks like it could be the best value set to be had. There are only three cards here – Walking Ballista, Darksteel Colossus and Arcbound Ravager – but they’re all full art foils with some great looking new artwork, and we all know how popular a card Walking Ballista is.

In case you didn’t know how popular Walking Ballista is, it’s been a Modern staple for years and a Pioneer staple since the format was invented, and on top of that is listed in over 12k decks on EDHREC. I think that this promo might appeal to EDH players in particular, seeing as they’ll only need one (per deck) rather than the full playset. Darksteel Colossus isn’t quite as much of an EDH staple but still shows up in decent numbers, and although Affinity has fallen by the wayside in Modern since the banning of Mox Opal, Arcbound Ravager still has some impressive chops in Hardened Scales decks.

Even if we set that aside, the raw numbers just look great here. Regular Walking Ballista foils start at $45 on TCGPlayer – that’s already more than the cost of this whole Secret Lair. But on top of that, you’ve got the Darksteel Colossus (foils starting at $15) and Arcbound Ravager (current promo version sitting at around $9). That’s $60 right there, and I think that these Ballista promos will easily be the most desirable foil for anyone looking to upgrade their deck. I could see the Ballista alone selling for $50 in a few months, and then the other two cards are just icing on the cake, to resell or use in decks as you please.

Arbitrage Opportunity: Golos, Tireless Pilgrim (Foil)

Price on MKM: €8
Price on TCGPlayer: $40

I wanted to do this as a regular pick, but the price on TCGPlayer is already sky high, and there are only ten (10) copies available across five sellers. It’s a similar story with both the prerelease foils and promo pack foils, both of which are in even shorter supply still. Over on MagicCardmarket (MKM), however, it’s quite different. Supply still isn’t hugely deep but prices across the three different versions start at just €7, with a fair few available under €10.

Obviously this isn’t a pick available to everyone, but for readers in the EU or for readers in the US with an EU trade partner, foil Golos, Tireless Pilgrims are ripe for the taking. As well as being the most popular commander from M20, Golos is also a high pick for a place in the 99 of other five colour EDH decks. He’s also seen a smattering of Modern play in Tron decks, but the main draw here is EDH, and the supply is low.

What’s also enticing about this pick is that it doesn’t need to be a quick flip, so there’s not too much rush to ship it over to the US from the EU. If you’re looking to get started with some arbitrage opportunities like this then check out my Guide to Arbitrage article I wrote a couple of months ago, and feel free to shoot me any questions on Twitter or Discord.

Mystic Sanctuary (Foil)

Price today: $5
Possible price: $10

Well, I wrote my last section for today’s article in relation to a companion deck, but now that Wizards have nerfed them into the sun I guess I’d better write about something else instead.

Mystic Sanctuary has completely changed the face of Modern. That might sound a tad melodramatic, but I honestly think it’s true. You just can’t play a blue deck (outside of tribal decks like Merfolk and Spirits) any more without playing this card. The top blue decks: Bant Snowblade, Scapeshift and Uroza (all of which are currently Yorion decks, but it’ll be interesting to see if that changes with the new tax on Companions) play 2-4 Mystic Sanctuary; it’s too powerful not to. Rebuying Cryptic Commands and Archmage’s Charms is great, but the fact that this is an Island that you can fetch makes it kinda ridiculous.

On top of the Modern play, this is the most popular card from Throne of Eldraine for EDH play. Over 12k decks are listed playing it on EDHREC, a good 2000 more than the next most popular card. Yes, this is a foil common from a recent set that I’m picking here, which is normally not something I’d consider – but this is a card that’s going to go in every spell-based blue EDH deck and Modern deck for the foreseeable future, and so I think that foils are an entirely reasonable pickup at $5 to double in 12 months or so.

There’s a pretty decent supply of these around the $5 mark, so it’ll take a little while for those to drain – but the demand is definitely there. I’d be happy to stash a couple of playsets away for 6-12 months and see where we’re at after that.


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK and a new writer for MTGPrice in 2020, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

Remastered

Wizards said that Ultimate Masters would be the last Masters set for a while. 

That was November 2018, and now we’re finding out that in August, they are back. Understandably, some people are upset and trying to avoid holding things that are about to be reprinted. We know a couple of cards already, and Double Masters has a bit of a theme they say, so if you’re picking up Twincast right now you might be unhappy when we get the full list.

But take a breath. We need to talk about what previous Masters sets have done to prices and what to do if some of your favorite specs get caught in the reprint vortex.

Let’s start with two iconic creatures of Modern: Noble Hierarch and Tarmogoyf, both of whom have had multiple printings. 

I put a purple dot on the timeline for the approximate time the card was reprinted, both of these have had that multiple times and finally in Ultimate Masters again.

What I want you to see is that the price recovered each time, until this most recent time. Noble was nearly $100 at one point, and the Goyf was famously a $200 card even in the reprint version. (For a laugh, go back and read Pascal Maynard’s article after picking foil ‘Goyf over the perfect Burst Lightning in pack 3 of his top 8 draft, I would have taken the shiny one too!)

So for these staples to lose value and stay down, two things had to happen: several targeted reprints and a big format shift.

Both of these cards were reprinted in multiple sets, and the two-drop was even mythic for most of those. The bigger news is that in late 2019, Pioneer was launched, and that’s caused a drop in a lot of Modern prices as people played less of that format and more of the new one. 

That’s what it will take for cards to go low and stay low…and that might not even be enough.

What you have to figure out is why a card is expensive, and that will tell you if the reprint will damage the price long-term, or if it’ll rebound in a year. A whole lot of the Modern Masters sets have that rebound, simply because people need the cards, and in a lot of cases, playsets of the card. Hierarch is not something you add one or two of to a deck; it’s a card you’re really hoping is in the opening hand and you wouldn’t mind drawing two.

Those two cards are staples of Modern. Let’s look at a more niche card that was expensive not because of play, but from pure scarcity: Daybreak Coronet.

Easy to forget that this was a $30 card until it was printed in Modern Masters 2015, when only one deck wanted four copies. As a rare in Future Sight, there weren’t that many copies to go around, but once there was a new supply, the price dropped and stayed dropped. Being in Ultimate Masters was the nail in the coffin, and this’ll never break $10 again.

This is what’s going to happen with Mana Crypt. You can’t reprint a card over and over again and have it maintain its price. Yes, it’ll be pricey, but the Eternal Masters version is at $175, Mystery Booster is $140, and the Double Masters will be cheaper yet. There’s a lot of other versions to chase, but these will all have the same art and the other prices will come down.

Constructed formats aren’t the only drivers though: Commander moves prices too, arguably more than any format besides Standard. Commander prices are a bit more real to me, because you’re not buying a playset, you’re buying one copy per deck. You have to have four times as many people wanting a card. For me, the example of this cycle is Doubling Season:

I’m convinced they could print this yearly at Mythic and it would be a $30 card. So many copies of this don’t get into circulation, because when you open one, you either put it in a deck that needs it or you trade it to someone else who needs it.

However, the rules of demand work the other way as well in Commander, as evidenced by Collective Voyage:

This was $15 in the summer of 2016 but only because it hadn’t been printed since 2011. A reprint in Commander 2016 destroyed the value because not enough players needed a copy for their deck. This is what’s going to happen to some specific cards that haven’t gotten many reprints, like Kaalia of the Vast. She was in the first Commander set in 2011, then the Commander’s Arsenal, and finally the first Commander Anthology. She’s never been in booster packs, and it looks like we’re going to devour Double Masters. I would be surprised if new copies went for more than $10.

Let’s look at a couple of cards that might be in Double Masters:

Time Stretch ($17-$70, 10th edition and Odyssey)

Sure, we could get something like Time Warp for one extra turn, but I think the prices are right to give this a reprint. This doesn’t have the exile clause that newer cards tend to have, and cheaper spells exist. I’d love to try casting this in Limited! A reprint here would end up at about $7 or less though, as the supply is the problem currently, not the demand. 

Kalonian Hydra ($20-$30, M14 and C16)

This would fall to $5 and start recovering not long after, because the doubling effect fits into a wide range of decks. It’s displayed this pattern before, and has had just enough reprint via the second Anthology to keep the price from skyrocketing. Also, this would be a nice treat for all the Zaxara the Exemplary decks that just got built!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY