The Watchtower 4/8/19 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


With a full week’s worth of spoilers behind us, everyone is sufficiently excited for War of the Spark. Static abilities are a big hit, with plenty of players eager to see that become a more permanent part of planeswalker design space. At the same time, there’s been a lot of chatter about formally making planeswalkers a legal commander, which while available as a casual option at friendly kitchen tables, isn’t something you can technically do at FNM, GP side events, and what have you. This change would be meaningful for our interests of course, as that would mean a massive influx of new commander decks centered around old walkers, and there would be a newfound reason to play counter support, proliferate, and the like in virtually all of those strategies. Something to keep in mind at least.

Kiora, Behemoth Beckoner (Foil)

Price Today: $2?
Possible Price: $8

One of the first cards that jumped off the page at me when browsing through the spoilers earlier last week was Kiora, Behemoth Beckoner. Longtime players will recognize the rules text here as a faint nod to Mayael the Anima, one of the very first mythic cards ever printed, and a popular early commander. Mayael wasn’t the originating point of this effect though, as that distinction belongs to Kavu Lair. Since then it has been repeated in form several times. Garruk’s Packleader, Elemental Bond, Temur Ascendancy, and now, Kiora. Kiora will perhaps stand as the strongest iteration of this effect for quite some time.

While the power cost has been turned up 33%, one imagines that is for the most part addressable during deck creation. Shift your mana curve up a hair to accommodate more four power creatures, keep the three or lesses you absolutely need, and accept you’ll draw an average of one less card per game than you would have with Packleader. (Packleader is certainly easier to kill though, which is good for Kiora.) Landing Kiora and turn three and then churning out a sizable creature every turn is going to pay off in spades, keeping your hand full and your board dense. Of course, this is before we even take note of her -1 ability, which lets her untap a permanent. An ability she can use seven entire times before finally heading home. Seven is a lot of turns in EDH, assuming no pressure and no counter manipulation. And what permanent would you be untapping? Probably not Avenger of Zendikar for psuedo-vigilance. How about Vannifar for a second activation? Or, uh Gaea’s Cradle? Is that one good to tap twice in a turn?

I haven’t found any foil preorders for Kiora yet. Most vendors wait until the full set is revealed, I believe. Once they start, look for any especially cheap foil sources, maybe $1.50 or less. Garruk’s Packleader is in 7700 decks, and Kiora is going to be a tempting upgrade for virtually any list that can use it, and then some. Foil Kioras could quietly sneak towards the upper end of single digit prices within a few months of release.

Butcher of Malakir (Foil)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $10

First thing’s first: I’ve got about ten copies of these. That said, I don’t think that inhibits this as a card to watch. Have you gandered at that supply? While Butcher has been printed something like seven times, the original Worldwake copies remain the only foils. And at the moment, there are eight total foil English NM copies available on TCGPlayer. And, if you’ll gander at the EDHREC page for Butcher, she’s found in over 17,000 decks. I feel like I could probably stop writing, but I’ve got a soft word count to hit, so let’s see.

Butcher is a Grave Pact on a body. Grave Pact is actually only in just under 17,000 decks, attributable to the price difference between the cards, I imagine. As a creature rather than an enchantment, Butcher isn’t quite as resilient, but she’s much easier to apply cost reductions to, easier to cheat into play, easier to reanimate, easier to tutor for, easier to copy, and is capable of getting in for damage on her own occasionally.

I’m not sure why Butcher hasn’t hopped up into the $10+ region already honestly, but it really couldn’t look any better. It will happen eventually, and when it does, you’ll be happy you own some.

Gonti, Lord of Luxury (Foil)

Price Today: $4
Possible Price: $9

Gonti snuck in with Kaladesh, and while we were all excited about the Inventions and vehicles and Smuggler’s Copter, he quietly set up shop in EDH as a powerful option for stealing other people’s resources. Whether you’re just grabbing their Sol Ring, or you got lucky and hit some card whose effect would be excellent in your deck but you just aren’t allowed the colors, he always seems to have an application.

If you find Gonti to be a touch underwhelming, well, don’t take my word for it.  He’s clocking on on EDHREC at over 7k, which is solid for a card that’s fairly fresh. Panharmonicon, the EDHest card since Doubling Season, is around 17k for reference. Holding not quite half as many decks as Panharmonicon is no mean feat.

What really drives Gonti home is the supply. Aside from the now-familiar CFB wall of 50 copies, there’s few remaining. 17 vendors, 1 of which is CFB, and 8 of whom are selling for $5 or more. And if you’re hoping to score cheap prerelease foils, you’re out of luck. There isn’t a single NM copy left on TCG.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.


Week 1 of WAR Previews

War of the Spark preview season is here!

Cards are getting released in specific order, each day showing a new facet of the overall story, such as Sorin and Nahiri taking time in the middle of a huge war to have their own private battle.

Previews will be done by the time of the pre-prerelease on April 19, and the rest of us get to play a week after that, including the either brilliant or awful idea of a Grand Prix prerelease.

This first week has caused some big waves in cards, and there’s two classes of spikes: Ones that are due to new interactions in old cards and you should sell sell sell and ones that have larger appeal and are not ‘get them out of your hands now’ level of hype.

Let’s dive in!

Before we go too far, I want to take a look at what preview-season spikes have done to prices over time. Let’s go back to this past summer, and the hype around Arcades Sabboth. Did the defenders hold their prices?

Stalwart Shield-Bearers, a common from 2010, jumped up dramatically, with a couple of eBay sales above $4, but settled back down about $2 after being consistent at $3. This sort of graph is consistent with most sudden spikes: the ones buying too late will pay the most, and a little patience will reward you in the majority of cases.

Not all spikes are the same, though.

Doubling Season

Doubling Season has gone up about $20 in the past week, entirely due to people buying up copies because of 37 new planeswalkers in this set. The price increase is correct, but now because of new planeswalkers, but because the price had reached a low after being in Battlebond this past summer.

This price isn’t likely to go back down. It’s one of the most popular casual cards around, an effect that anyone who ever played Magic can look at and say, “Oh my goodness, this card is bonkers with <insert any of 10,000 cards> and I want to durdle with it in Commander!”

We’ve seen what happens over time to this card. It gets expensive, gets reprinted, but a large number of copies never get into circulation because we want to play with a silly card like this, instead of dumping it to a buylist.

If I have extras of Doubling Season around, I might let one or two go at this new price and cover what I paid, and hold on with the rest. This is, in many respects, THE Commander card and iconic of what that format loves to do.

Some cards, though, live in a magical Christmasland of silliness.

Proteus Staff is not going to hold its new price. I had to zoom in on the weeks of pricing because for years upon years upon years it’s been a $3 card, and now it’s $15 because Fibblepits can get you two cards over and over again. Yippee? I respect anyone who wants to work this hard to draw two over and over again, especially in a deck that can’t play other creatures.

Sell your Staff as quickly as you can. There’s ten on eBay right now, buylists aren’t taking much, go sort your bulk rares.

Liliana, Untouched by Death (up to $12 from $5): We’re seeing the return of the Eternals of Amonkhet finally, in the new Amass mechanics that brings along Zombie Army token for fun and profit. The hope here is that she interacts favorably with the new Zombies in Standard, but this is a high buy-in for a card that will have no value when rotation happens in six months. I’d be selling every copy I could.

Mycosynth Lattice (up to $35 from $10):

Reprinted in Battlebond as a mythic, an older card whose price was due to rarity and not demand, this has been almost its own meme in terms of what it could theoretically do, since it made everything into an artifact. The new Karn works with Lattice to literally shut off every card’s activated abilities, including their lands. Good times!

I would be selling quite confidently. If you bought one even at $20, you can get your money back. If you got in at $10, it’s a lot of profit.

Thought Lash (up to $10 from $3): Keep in mind that this was already a combo with Laboratory Maniac (a card which just got reprinted in UMA as an uncommon, else it’d be hitting $10 too) and the new Jace gives you a second ‘I win for having no cards in my library’ effect. This is a Reserved List card, so there’s that pressure in addition to having some super-weird art and being from a set released more than twenty years ago. I would happily sell all my copies, and here’s why:

It’s possible that the card grows again to $15 at some point. It’s on the RL but it can’t be a Modern combo, so people have to do this in Legacy or Commander. I don’t know how long it’ll take to grow that extra $5, and I’d rather take the $5 I made from this and put that into something that could grow more quickly. Taking the profit and moving on is a key part of this hobby, especially if it trickles back down to $6 or $7.

Knowledge Pool (up to $2.50 from fifty cents): New Teferi doesn’t allow people to play things except as sorceries, which is defined as ‘either main phase when nothing is on the stack.’ This means that they literally can’t cast anything from the Pool, it’s a hard lock. This one is indeed Modern legal, it was on an MTGGoldfish video about a year ago, and having an extra piece to this lock is very intriguing. So far, the profits are quite small, even if you have this in your bulk box, and so I’m going to say to be conservative and wait. It’s such a small profit that I would advocate patience, you’ll want to get more than $1 buylist for this.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice for five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Unlocked Pro Trader: Sparking Creativity

Readers,

I don’t want to do a deep dive on all the implications of a specific commander this early, mostly because we can wait a bit, but there are a few two-card combos emerging and it’s best to be apprised of them so you’re not left in the dust when cards start selling from your TCG Player store or someone else swipes the cheap copies from your LGS. The ship may have sailed on some of these questionable beauties but you can snag some others so let’s get to it.

The New Card


The Old Card(s)

Lashy boy went up before, notably when they printed Laboratory Maniac and also when people thought you could donate it to opponents with Zedruu. I don’t think it’s any better here than it was with Laboratory Maniac, but what do I know? The card’s going up regardless. In fact, “the card’s going up regardless” shall be my catchphrase for the rest of this article.

Speaking of which, I have another spicy pick for you AND as an added bonus, the voice in my head now has a stereotypical Italian accent. Badda BING.

Eyy, why are you out heah buying Leveluh when $0.50 per copy can buy you some nice gabbagool? OK, I’m done with that bit, writing it out phonetically is a pain and I’m not sure which Italian slang is OK to write. Look, this is a pretty dumb spec and this is not a good combo, nor a new combo. But, hey…

And even though I think that may be the end of the Jace shenanigans I have taken note of, there are other cards poised to make things happen.

The New Card

Activated abilities of artifacts your opponents control can’t be activated. 

[+1]: Until your next turn, up to one target noncreature artifact becomes an artifact creature with power and toughness each equal to its converted mana cost. 

[-2]: You may choose an artifact card you own from outside the game or in exile, reveal that card and add it to your hand. 

This is a pretty formidable card. I expect its price to be $1 for every pixel in the picture on Mythic Spoiler.

The New Card

This was going to shake off its Battlebond printing anyway, but the combo with Karn is irresistable. They can’t use activated abilities of… their cards. It’s pretty boss. If you hate your opponents playing Magic, you’ll love this.

The card has mostly popped already but there are still a few reasonable copies out there, especially with the Battlebond printing tanking the price for a bit. Even if you don’t think people want to be about this Chinese Fingertrap life,

New Card

Fblthp is totally lost and while he might appear to be a Blue Norin the Wary, I think he has some utility people latched onto right away that Norin players don’t get to experiment with.

The Old Card

Jeleva players immediately latched onto this combo which is strange because I didn’t think anyone playing Jeleva in 2019 wanted to innovate anymore. However, just in a deck with Flippleblips as your commander, you can order your entire library and draw two cards provided you don’t have any other creatures. Quelle Combo. Staff went up on the basis of Narset hype and it’s still a nutso card with a decent foil multiplier and you should put copies of it into your life. Even if you don’t think there are enough Jeleva players to move the needle or lunatics who will build around fibblips, guess what?

One more, nerds.

The New Card



This is a card, huh? I nicknamed it “Bad Nauseam” but it will probably have an impact on a few formats. People are talking about cards that gain life and draw cards as a way to go infinite off the top without having to play a bunch of bad, 0-mana cards in a 100 card deck. I think there’s another combo worth looking at.

If you weren’t buying $5 Tops when Eternal Masters was at its peak, I feel bad for you, son. I got 99 missed specs but Top ain’t one. Recovering nicely, the only real question was whether it would go up on its own or whether some event would happen to give it a nudge. I guess we have our answer.

That does it for me this week! Next week I hope to have a few commanders in the set to write about because if I have to write about Atraxa, I’ll probably need a beer or three to get through the article. Until then, keep your eye on two-card combos and remember to buy double. Until next time!

The Watchtower 4/1/19 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


Wizards’ Mythic Invitational was their biggest swing for the furthest fences so far, and the flagship event for the new OP structure to which they’ve spent the last six months pivoting. All reports are in, and it was a…well, maybe not exactly rousing, but still a motivating success. It wouldn’t be a WotC event without a series of technical glitches that felt even more embarrassing given the money at play, and the Twitch viewership numbers are highly dubious in thanks to embedding the stream in a variety of Curse websites (I was “watching” the Invitational because it was embedded in a Path of Exile wiki page I pulled up), but players overall enjoyed the higher production values, the spectacle, and the general excitement of the event. Of course, most germane are the fifteen or so spoilers we also got to enjoy.

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