Watchtower

PROTRADER: The Watchtower 7/24/17

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.

We didn’t pick up too much this weekend to get excited about. With the Pro Tour this coming weekend, the two Grand Prix were limited. SCG ran a team event, which is nifty, but I’m underwhelmed by most of the decklists I’m seeing over there. I’m also still exhausted from my excursion into Toronto on Saturday.

One of the more interesting cards on our radar for the Pro Tour, Champion of Wits, has already moved the needle enough that it’s too late to look at buying in. Nothing else has drummed up enough conversation to get me excited yet, and given that it’s the last PT before rotation, I don’t think we’ll see nearly as much action out of this as we may other events. I think I’ll be watching this weekend strictly as a fan of Magic and nothing more.

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Brainstorm Brewery

Brainstorm Brewery #248 – We Really Tried

http://traffic.libsyn.com/brainstormbrewery/Brainstorm_Brewery_248.mp3

This week the cast discusses the current state of standard, including deck diversity, cheap deck option, and sneaking Gideon into sideboards.  The power of suggestion drives Corbin to custard, and Jason briefly disappears from the cast.   Listener emails cover Pucatrade and consumer confidence.  DJ reviews some coming changes to the patreon, including chances to frost Jason’s  hair.  Strangely, breaking bulk features as many rares as pick up the week.

Contact Us!

Brainstorm Brewery – Website – E-mail – Twitter – Facebook – RSS – iTunes – Stitcher

Corbin Hosler – E-mail – Twitter – Facebook – TCGPlayer

Jason E Alt – E-mail – Twitter – Facebook – MTGPrice

Douglas Johnson is and will forever be merely a guest.

Casual Fridays

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Week One of HOU

We’ve had one weekend of Hour of Devastation being legal for Standard, and there are some cards at surprising prices. I want to go over a few with you today and see what these trajectories tell us.

Something to note that’s a bit different about this set, as opposed to most other sets that have come out in the past few years: This set was regarded to be a little clunky when it was first revealed to the world, a bit underpowered as compared to what was already legal for us to play in Standard.

This led to some impressively low pre-order prices, and starting out that low has put more cards than usual on an upward trajectory.

On to the biggest gainer of the set so far, a card no one predicted would be selling for $4-$5 on eBay a week after release…

Fraying Sanity (up to $5 now, from a low of about $1 in prerelease season): So far, I’m super wrong about this card. People can’t get enough of it right now! It’s astounding, even though I know full well how popular mill cards are with the casual set. Yes, it’s an auto-win with Traumatize.  I was heavily dismissive of the card, I sold one for fifty cents on Cardsphere on prerelease weekend, and I told you to dump it at $2 a week ago after it had gone up from $1.

I cannot find records of a mill deck getting there in an event or even on a stream so far. I can see no shortage of people posting decks that might be good with it, and Startled Awake is riding a big bump because people want to mill 26 cards, but the card hasn’t gotten there yet. This level of interest is pretty unique, and I don’t know who is buying this at $4. Every other card with a similar focus got cheap and stayed there for a while, though I honestly don’t recall how cheap Glimpse the Unthinkable got to. It was 2005, so it couldn’t have been too pricey?

There are going to be lots and lots and lots of this card out there. It’s not going to keep this price. I reserve the right to be shocked, but buylists are taking this at $3 right now and I don’t even know what to say.

Are we witnessing mass speculation at work? Are we seeing what happens when literally every FNM player decides to play the same wonky deck? I don’t know. I was comfortable getting my fifty cents, and I’d be comfortable getting $3 on a buylist right now.

Champion of Wits (up to $3 from about $0.75): This is what an on-camera spike looks like. The card fits very well into Emerge, and is showing a healthy bump due to helping two different players make the top 8 last weekend. So far it’s only shown up in this one style of deck, but it might keep this price. If there’s anything going on with graveyards in the next couple sets, this could spike again, though likely not above $5 or $6, even in a year.

Crested Sunmare (now at $5, up from $3.50): Yes, it’s fun to do silly things with this card, and there will always be people trying to make something like this work, but I’m going to blame this bump on the streaming effect and move on.

Solemnity (Still about $5): I’m actually very impressed at the price stability of this card. We haven’t had a Modern event where it makes waves yet, but it’s another combo piece that’s hard to deal with. The preorder price has proven sticky, and that’s a relatively rare feat.

Hour of Devastation (up to $8.50 now): I think that not only does this keep Crested Sunmare decks in check, it’s going to define the Standard format quite well. There are very few decks that can take this hit and act like nothing happened, though Vehicles are the card type that can keep on chugging. I still like this to be a $10 card at the release of Ixalan, and tick up from there.

Finally, I want to call your attention to the uncommons that are making a financial splash and are worth snagging for the next few weeks at low prices or from draft chaff.

Supreme Will ($1): UR Control is going to be a good deck for a while, and this is exactly the sort of card that a permission deck loves to have. Normally, if someone leaves up three mana, you’re careful to play around this (or Metallic Rebuke or Cancel) but if you don’t make a play, their counter is now a card selection spell, getting what they need most out of the top four.

Abrade ($1.50): Flexibility is always something a card benefits from, and the heavy foil multiplier on this card indicates that it’s got some legs in the casual community. It was in a lot of the best-performing decks this past weekend, and while it’s going to be the participation promo for Game Day on the first weekend of August, I like this to be one of the most played cards from the set while it’s Standard legal. (Kaladesh and its Vehicles will rotate out along with Hour of Devastation in September 2018.)

Claim // Fame ($2): This is the one that I’m a little less enthused by. Yes, it’s amazing next to Snapcaster Mage, and Death’s Shadow, and on and on, but it’s not going to be a four-of. I’d be surprised if it was more popular than Kolaghan’s Command, a card with even more flexibility. I want to let this one cool off a little bit, let the foils get to the $7 range. Right now people are too eager and that doesn’t appeal to me.

Cliff has been writing about Magic in some format or another for six years now, a terrifying length of time. He has two kids, a full-time job, and an endless sense of humor about the fact that these pieces of cardboard keep being worth money! His goal is always to buy low and sell high, and is an avid user of Cardsphere. Follow him on Twitter @wordofcommander or tune in every Friday here on MTGPrice.

Rachel Agnes, The Collector

Pro Tour Announcements and Modern Finance

4 Comments

Have you seen the big announcements regarding the Magic Pro Tour? If not, now is a good time to take a look!

http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/organized-play/2018s-pro-tours-and-2017s-worlds-2017-07-19

My personal excitement aside, this is a great time to discuss some financial ramifications regarding the changes. Here are a few takeaways that I will discuss from this.

  1. Bigger prizes + Bronze level will lead to a slight increase in players grinding for the Pro Tour
  2. Modern being offered as both a Pro Tour format and qualifying events leading up to it will lead to more players playing high level Modern.
  3. With more interest in Modern, prices will go up due to demand.

More money!!!

My view:

So as a collector/investor what do increased prize payouts mean for you? Even if you aren’t someone interested in getting onto the Pro Tour, there will absolutely be more players willing and eager to do so. The Pro Tour prize money is increasing, including the 25th Anniversary Pro Tour which will award $1,000,000 total in prizes. Financially speaking, the EV of playing in Pro Tours just went up. With this payout increase we will see at least a small increase in the number of players trying to qualify. Thus, we may see a small increase in the price of tournament staples.

Opposing view:

Prize payouts for Grand Prix increased a few years ago and the numbers at Grand Prix didn’t spike in any meaningful way. So isn’t it possible that increasing prizes isn’t an effective way to increase tournament participation?

Discussion:

Yes and no. Healthy formats, well-run events, coverage, and EV combined are effective ways to increase tournament participation. Recently, Grand Prix have spiked their entry fee by roughly double and are not increasing payout accordingly. Additionally, the lack of coverage over the last few years was abysmal and certainly led to less hype and notoriety of the events. These easily overshadowed what could have been a slight boom of players entering Grand Prix.

With Pro Tour slots being more coveted than ever I predict larger turnouts for PPTQs, RPTQs, and Magic Online events. These could lead to an increase in the price of many tournament staples, but those will primarily be tied to the health of the format and game in general. It is still something to keep in mind.

Bronze and what it means

My view:

Along with the increased prize payouts, the addition of the Bronze tier in the Pro Player’s Club means that there will be more players qualified for RPTQs. This will lead to more players aiming to hit the 10 Pro Point threshold. Not many will get there, but the increase in players attempting it should be noticed.

Opposing view:

A few more players at RPTQs won’t affect my card prices, because it isn’t a large enough scale to matter.

Discussion:

I think the variation in attendance will be slight. Attendance numbers only slightly contribute to card prices. So in the end, yes, I think the prices of tournament staples will only slightly increase. Combined with the removal of the Masterpiece Series from most sets, we could see mythic rares in particular be pricey after the coming Pro Tours.

Modern is back!

My View:

Don’t be fooled, Modern is a Pro Tour format and I am more excited than ever to see its return to the big stage. With big name pros playing optimized, tested, and tuned decks we will see top tier staples go up in price. Modern cards are extremely susceptible to big spikes in price, usually only quelled by reprints or bannings. Even when a deck falls out of favor, the price hardly moves much, as has been the case with cards like Goryo’s Vengeance and Scapeshift.

Opposing View:

People who have been into Modern already have the cards and aren’t going to be reinvigorated by the Pro Tour.

Discussion:

Having a few Grand Prix scattered around and having a showcase at the Pro Tour are two entirely different beasts. Exposing more people to the format, especially with the contrast to the awful Standard environments of the last few years, will grow Modern further. More growth, means higher prices.

What about qualifying events?

My view:

According to the article, there will be Modern PPTQs for a three month span in mid-late 2018. This means that Modern staples should see a significant uptick in price. After all, these cards will now be usable to get you onto the Pro Tour. You know, the one with 4x the prize pool.

Opposing View:

There is too small a window to qualify for the Pro Tour via Modern. Additionally, there will be Sealed qualifiers at the same time, so less events for Modern overall.

Discussion:

These points are valid, but if history is any indicator, when PPTQ season (formerly PTQ season) rolls around, the formats that feed that Pro Tour see their tournament staples increased in price. If you want to sell some Modern cards I would do so in that time span. If you are looking to pick up Modern cards, I would get a feel for a deck you like and save up for it long before that time frame.

Which cards should you invest in?

As an investor, there is huge opportunity when it comes to Modern. The format has a large player base and regular events at both the Grand Prix and LGS levels. With it being displayed annually on the Pro Tour, and the reintroduction of the “Modern season” of qualifying events, there will be productive time frames to buy and sell modern staples.

Personally, I stick to the staples when it comes time to invest, and the more universal playability the better. I stay far away from casual cards and fringe spikes from Modern decks that are showcased on Twitch or in articles. I want the professional results and the pro player backing behind cards I suggest picking up.

Kind of cards I avoid:

Rite of Passage 

Intruder Alarm 

Phyrexian Soulgorger  

Allosaurus Rider 

Geralf’s Messenger  

I avoid cards like these because they are often novelty or “flavor of the week” combos that will never go anywhere in Modern, and for good reason.  Can you do well getting in cheap around $0.25-$0.50 and selling for $4.00 on cards like this? Sure! It’s just not the grind I enjoy myself.

Kind of cards I would consider:

Karn Liberated

Fulminator Mage

Rest in Peace

Fatal Push

Collective Brutality

I am not saying I would invest in any of these particular cards at the moment. I am just trying to illustrate the type of cards and the juxtaposition between the “do’s and don’ts” I have for investing. Because what is powerful in Modern and the state of reprints are always unpredictable, there is rarely a definitive individual investment to be made.

Is Modern a Pro Tour Format?

My View:

Yes, Modern is a Pro Tour format. It belongs on the Pro Tour because it is another fun way to play Magic and is promoted at many levels including at Grand Prix.

Opposing View:

Modern is not a Pro Tour format because it doesn’t sell packs and they have to ban/unban cards to spice it up.

Discussion:

As a once-per-year event, Modern doesn’t need shaking up. Will WotC ban or unban cards right before a Modern Pro Tour to “make things more interesting?” It’s possible. However, they do not need to do so. There will be plenty of powerful brains at work trying to solve the format. With Modern being as open and large a format as it is, there is little chance everyone will decide on the same unanimous deck unless something is truly broken. In fact, Standard has a way better chance of being broken for a Pro Tour and leading to stagnant matchups and games.

These announcements have me super excited! I just had to get writing and discussing as soon as possible. What are your thoughts on the announcements? What do you think of the future of Modern and Legacy with their appearance at the Pro Tour? Time will tell, but I know it’s going to be a wild ride.

Rachel Agnes is a VSL Competitor, Phyrexian Princess, Collector of all things shiny and a Cube, Vintage, Legacy, and EDH enthusiast. 
Catch on Twitch and Twitter via Baetog_.

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