Inventions: Time to Buy

Time to speak some truth: I’ve been buying Inventions and Expeditions whenever I can.

Part of it is that I have a magpie’s eye for shiny and unique things. I have written before that I think foiling out a deck is a worthy quest and a good financial plan at the same time. The Masterpiece series has grown on me and I think it’s worth acquiring.

Especially right now.

The market has set the price on these relatively quickly, and while the prices all started super high on the Expeditions, they settled to a more reasonable level within a few weeks. To be fair, we didn’t know exactly how many would be printed and how many people would want them. Some of the preorder prices turned out to be comically high, but that’s the nature of things showing up for the first time.

Let’s look at Polluted Delta.

 

What I love most about that graph is the dip at the end of 2016, when the Standard Showdown packs were announced and started being opened. Given the frequency of having an Expedition or Invention in those, the amount of supply added was probably not 20% more, but that’s how far it has fallen at that news.

To buy low and sell high is a prime tenent of Magic finance, and the slight falling of values means that I want to get in on some lands. I’m a bit more optimistic on the enemy fetches, but I’m also aware that the player base is clamoring for a reprint of those.

Intellectually, I know that the pack foil of Twilight Mire is more expensive than the Expedition version. I know that the pack foil versions of cards are almost always the most expensive foils, depending on reprints and arts.

It doesn’t take away from my enjoyment of owning these cards with the unique frame and appearance, which is why I pick up as many of them as I can.

The most important detail about the Masterpieces is this: They do not circulate a lot. People get them and put them in decks and leave them there. High-end foils are like that, and while the supply might be large, the number in circulation isn’t. Cubes and Commander decks soak up Masterpieces that get opened, and I don’t think they have a chance to lose that freshly-opened-pack smell before being double-sleeved and given a place of pride.

Normally, this is a good time to buy cards, at the tail end of a season. I wrote last week about some pickups I really like from Kaladesh. What makes this a good time for Inventions especially is that it’s going to take truly special circumstances for more of them to get into circulation.

I’m not ruling out a future edition that Wizards does, I think it’s super unlikely for them to release a significant amount of these again. It would be analogous to releasing a new batch of SDCC black planeswalkers, to my mind.

We are about to start spoilers for Modern Masters 2017, and I have a strong suspicion that it’s going to lower the amount of drafts done at local stores for AER-AER-KLD. We don’t know enough about the set or what’s in it, but players are fickle. We like new things, especially the chance to open something super expensive. Cutting back on the drafts done means that the supply isn’t going to go up very much, and so there’s a few Inventions with strong casual appeal that I really want in on:

Solemn Simulacrum – $66 – Universally good and has been reprinted a ton, yet still holding some value. The pack foils are not visually striking, while this is, and I like this to grow nicely over time.

Rings of Brighthearth – $55 – The card in regular nonfoil has apready risen recently, at at about $10 more than the pack foil, I’ve gotten two of these for different decks. There are not a lot of decks that want this effect, but it’s amazing when it’s good.

Chromatic Lantern – $55 – The gold standard of mana fixing, a card very popular in casual formats, and something that ought to go up over time.

Cloudstone Curio – $30 – Have you seen an Animar deck go off with this? Or an Elf deck? It’s a combo enabler, and those are the things that can really spike when a new card makes them good.

Gauntlet of Power – $31 – I’m not ruling out weird Infinity War crossovers or stuff like that, but with the nonfoil at $15, this is a great price for an auto-include in single-color decks.

Paradox Engine – $45 – Again, this is just a silly card that does silly things and is breakable even now. It’s also gorgeous, which is important.

Planar Bridge – $36 – It can’t go find the sorcery or instant you need to win the game, but it does tutor up a ridiculous number of broken things and that’s at the heart of Commander games. I love having these in long-term storage, because it’s got excellent potential.

Something that hasn’t happened yet to the Inventions or Expeditions is a spike in those prices. They have dipped a little and recovered to within a few percent, but they represent at least steady long-term growth, and the potential for a huge payoff should they ever spike. It might even be a Reserved List buyout, which we saw a few times this past summer, as some people attempted to clear out the market.

Torrential Gearhulk has seen a bump already, in all versions including the Masterpiece:

 

The bump from Pro Tour play affected all versions of this card, and that’s helpful to know if someone breaks Paradox Engine during Hour of Devastation.

Any chance you get to trade for a Masterpiece, you should at least consider. Depends on the trade and the percentage that someone is asking for, but they are fantastic trade bait, a sweet target for people to aim for and a financially stable card that you should seek to add to your portfolio.

The 10 Most Expensive EDH Staples

I would apologize for the clickbait title but it clearly worked, didn’t it? You clicked after all and now you’re reading the article. Besides, is there any clickbait title that can rival the irresistability of the phrase “Written by Jason Alt”? I maintain that, no, there is not. The reason for the title and for the departure from my typical format is that I was pitched this idea from management and I liked it enough to write it. I don’t know if we’re going to uncover any hidden gems here, but I do feel like there is value in looking at an albeit subjective list of must-have EDH cards that are getting up there in price (or which are already there, in a few cases).

To determine what I feel are considered “must-have” cards, I’m using a combination of EDHREC analytics and personal experience. I’m trying to make this as objective as possible but there maybe choices you don’t agree with or which you feel have been omitted in error. Feel free to make the case for your picks in the comments.

Some interesting things happened when I tried two different approaches and tried to reconcile them. The first thing I did was search for all of the most expensive cards that see EDH play at all and look at the number of decks they were played in (per EDHREC). EDHREC isn’t a perfect model for adoption but I use it because it’s as good a model as we have, it’s comprehensive and it’s a collection of lists from people who are registering both decks they have and decks they’d like to have. It seems like there would be danger in using a model like that because anyone can just register a $4,000 deck they’ll never afford and never build on TappedOut like a lunatic and if enough people do that, it will throw off the model. However, it’s not like those cards are expensive because a lot of people are pretending they’re in decks they’re not in – the cards are expensive because they’re old, rare and/or people are buying them and playing with them. You might expect the “money is no object!” fake deck crowd to juice the stats on expensive Legends, Arabian Nights and Antiquities cards but the opposite is happening. Players who can’t afford to drop $150 on a Forcefield don’t even seem to be aware it exists, or at least they aren’t making a decklist that EDHREC scrapes that claims they run Forcefield – its $150 price tag might make it a good candidate for this article but it’s in fewer than 250 decks.

Going the other way and looking at cards that were in a ton of decks yielded equally disappointing but less surprising results. Obviously we’re not paying Mana Drain money for Sol Ring because it’s been printed more times than basic Mountain at this point. The trick is finding cards that tick both boxes – they’re expensive but they also get played in a decent number of decks.

First, a few notable cards excluded from the list.

At a whopping 17,563 inclusions, this was included in a ton of decks. However, it was excluded because while it was the most expensive card in more than 10,000 decks, it pales in comparison price-wise to the other cards in the list. It’s surely a must-play card but it’s hardly the most expensive and thus didn’t make the cut.

This is a card with a lot of potential and with no reprint last year when it would have done a lot of good, the card surged, gaining 50% of its value in a year. This isn’t in enough decks to crack the list, but it’s in quite a few and it’s going to be expensive enough to be a contender, soon. I really liked this as a pickup around $20 when it wasn’t reprinted in Commander 2015 but I think there is still money to be made here, given their apparent reluctance to give this a reprint. This didn’t make the list but bore mentioning.

Included in about 20,000 decks, this is the definition of “must-play” but with so many cards worth much more in the $100+ range, I had to cut cards worth less than $40. If I balanced the list to favor inclusion rather than price, this likely would have made the cut.

Without further equivocation, here is the list.

#10 – Mana Drain

At 2,873 inclusions, this is the lowest-played card on the list and basically established the cut-off for “must-play” cards. If you look at inclusion, you have cards like Sol Ring in 88,000 decks and see a big drop-off right after with cards like Demonic Tutor, Counterspell, Brainstorm, Rhystic Study, Sylvan Library, Swords to Plowshares and Solemn Simulacrum all hovering between 40,000 and 10,000 inclusions. After that there is an even bigger drop-off and if you insist the cards in this list be worth at least $20, you have to include some cards that aren’t in quite as many decks. I think the amount Mana Drain gets played is adequate for our purposes and the price justifies its inclusion, here.

#9 Wheel of Fortune

at 4,581 inclusions, and likely growing the more people build Nekusar and Yidris decks, this is an old card with a lot of printings but a lot of demand that has soaked up all of the copies under $50 in most places. Wheel effects are strong and this is the alpha wheel, the one that got us all started.  This is a Reserved List card with a lot of applications and it’s only going to get less and less affordable as more people play EDH and build decks.

#8 Survival of the Fittest

At 3,635 inclusions, this card is no slouch and has a lot of utility in a lot of decks. Legacy gave this price a lot of help and its Reserved List status helped keep the price high as well as its applicability in EDH. A Legacy unbanning would do ridiculous things to this price, but it’s pretty good right where it is, frankly. This card is going to hold its value quite well and is a mainstay in toolbox decks.

#7 Grim Monolith

In 3,719 decks and counting, this is an allstar in decks that are greedy and want artifact mana early and don’t care about the consequences later. This is a mana rock that doesn’t deal you any damage (not that we care that much about a point or two of pain in a 40 life format, making Mana Vault much better) and while older formats give the price a boost, EDH still loves to use this card and it shows.

#6 Cavern of Souls

7,984 people jam this tribal favorite in EDH and that has helped the price ascend. If we’re very lucky, we’ll see a Modern Masters 2017 reprinting of this card to get a few more copies into the sweaty mitts of a few more tribal players (Legacy players can fend for themselves). This card might even get jammed more if it were more affordable. I still remember being laughed at for buying these at retail when Avacyn Restored came out because I thought Legacy and EDH could push them to $50. In general, if you bet on tribal cards, you get the last laugh often.

#5 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

At 4,967 copies, this exceeded my expectations for how much play it would see in EDH. People love the idea of having a card like this in play and straight decking someone out of the game or just smoothing out every draw with the option of bouncing a troublesome creature. Even the Brainstorm function is useful, putting lots of counters on Lorescale Coatl or making Thought Reflection really good. Jace is this expensive with a Modern banning, so imagine what an unbanning could do to his price. The result is likely that it prices Jace out of a lot of EDH decks, which would be too bad.

#4 – Force of Will

There sure are a lot of blue cards on this list. 4,696 players agree with the assessment that blue is one of the best or the best color in EDH by jamming this clunky, 5 mana spell that is card disadvantage. At least the art is cool, I guess. In all seriousness, some decks can’t sit back and watch their opponent play a turn 3 Kozilek and they have to have something to say about it because that’s what blue players do. This card is one of the most iconic Magic cards ever and it’s not going to go away. Be prepared to be blown out by this card that, despite its high price, is still an EDH windmill auto-include for a lot of people.

#3 Mana Crypt

I can’t say I consider this card 100% necessary, but 8,896 deck builders disagree, opting to jam this in their list. And why not? This is better than Sol Ring on turn 1 and competitive players are all about good turn 1 plays and they’re also fine spending the money to win. You can’t say they aren’t real EDH players and if they’re voting with their wallets to play with this card, we should pay attention. Eternal Masters and Masterpieces  got more copies in more players’ hands and that is a good thing. If we see this printed some more, I think the price can withstand the extra supply because the demand is quite high. There’s a reason this was so close to the top spot.

#2 Doubling Season

This used to be a bulk rare, as hard as that is to believe. EDH is the bulk rare format and the only problem with that is that players don’t tend to let things stay a bulk rare if they really want them. This is perhaps the card that best encapsulates what EDH is all about. It’s expensive, powerful, a good build-around and it was a stupid green bulk rare before this format came along. Casual players took notice before EDH was even official and the price began to creep up. This shook off a Modern Masters reprinting and really got nutty when Atraxa came along and captured the imagination of every EDH player on earth, though I’d argue if you build Atraxa you probably didn’t have much of one to begin with. This is good in nearly every deck that runs green because it’s bound to help you do something you’re doing twice as well. This card IS EDH as far as I’m concerned.

#1 Gaea’s Cradle

I was hesitant to rank the cards but even when I didn’t want to, I knew I wanted this card to be #1. This is pure EDH – rewarding you for filling up the board. While this is useful in Legacy to the extent that its largest price increase was predicated on the Legend rule change (and justified cum eo by its Reserved List status) this is still an EDH staple and gets jammed in lots of decks that go wide. It creates a feedback loop with cards that let you pay mana to put out creature tokens and casual players and competitive players alike have sworn by this card for over a decade.

I’m looking forward to all the comments on reddit saying “This lst iz trash he didnt even enclude ne white cardz this site sucks anywayz” and some more constructive comments in the comments section below. I really wrestled with these rankings and even with the 10 cards I included. How do you really objectively decide something like that? Do you weight it in favor or how expensive they are or how much they’re played? Is it fair to leave off cards in 10 times as many decks as some on this list just because they’re under $20? It’s hard to know. I’m happy with how this turned out and I got a few surprises looking through all of the data. I hope you found this valuable and if not, I’ll be back to my old tricks next week. We might even have some Modern Masters spoilers to look at. Until next time!

 

UNLOCKED: The Watchtower 2/13/17

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.


First thing’s first: Congratulations to Ryan Hare, the winner of GP Pittsburgh. Ryan is a local from our group here in Buffalo that also includes a recent GP Pittsburgh winner, Alex Bianchi. Pittsburgh is a good city for Buffalo, it would seem. Ryan is one of the hardest working Magic players I know, and he deserved the success.

I have to say, Ryan’s victory isn’t the only thing that I enjoyed here. Last week I said that I didn’t expect Mardu to continue its rampage across Standard, and that Saheeli and GB decks would rise to the top again. I’ve especially liked GB for awhile, with Rishkar, Peema Renegade on my list last week, Glint-Sleeve Siphoner two weeks ago, and other staples in weeks past. In fact, I started my list this week with Rishkar at the top, until I checked last week’s article and realized I had already written about it. At this point I’m not sure what card in GB to point to. There’s room for all of the staples to grow 10 to 30 percent, like Walking Ballista, but I can hardly tell you that it’s wise to buy copies. Personal copies, perhaps. There aren’t any GB cards in my things I’m keeping an eye on this week, since I’ve covered the best ones, but keep in mind that everything in the deck is ripe for growth.

There’s no Standard cards this week because it’s not clear where to go from here. GB had an excellent weekend after a solid second-place finish at the Pro Tour, Mardu Vehicles fell dramatically in popularity, so there’s nothing there I’m comfortable pushing, and Saheeli prices are still high enough on the few rares and mythics it does run that there’s no incentive to invest. Instead, we’ll be thinking about Modern, since Modern Masters 2017 is just over four weeks away, which means spoilers are coming soon.

Inkmoth Nexus

Price Today: $20
Possible Price: $45

Inkmoth Nexus is a major player in Modern, functioning as a key component of both Infect and Affinity. It’s also popular in the considerably-less important Legacy landscape, and pops up in off-the-radar brews and casual decks as well. Inkmoth has been a constructed staple for years now, and the price has risen to $20 to reflect that. As recognition of such, there’s an Inkmoth Nexus RPTQ promo coming later this year, though that news comes by way of a leaked photo, not an official announcement.

Let me be perfectly clear: I have no idea if Inkmoth Nexus is in MM3. It may or may not be. Betting money against Wizards’ actions is a great way to hose yourself unnecessarily. As such, I’m not advocating Inkmoth Nexus as an investment today, rather, if it isn’t included in the set, I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices move as a reaction.

Move in what capacity? Well I’d say $40+ is a reasonable price tag if this doesn’t show up in Modern. That may sound high, but we’re talking about a critical 4x in two top Modern decks, with no shortage of additional demand, that only had a single full-scale printing in Mirrodin Besieged. It was in an event deck at the time, supply which is fully baked into the price today, and an upcoming RPTQ promo, which will do almost nothing to the global inventory. Grove of the Burnwillows is $40, far below its previous peak. Horizon Canopy is $60. Cavern of Souls is $50. Lands that are important in Modern can be quite expensive.

Supply on TCGPlayer is highish, with more than a page’s worth of available copies, but take note that there’s only a handful of playsets before you’re at $25, and then $30 isn’t too far off. It won’t take many people finally deciding to buy in since it seems safe to drive numbers wild.


Ad Nauseam

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $15

Like Inkmoth Nexus, Ad Nauseam is a “if it doesn’t show up” pick. Both will get slaughtered if they’re reprinted in MM3; that goes without saying. We’re interested in figuring out what will react if it isn’t in MM3, and Ad Nauseam is a good one to keep an eye on.

The eponymous card of a long standing combo deck in Modern, Ad Nauseam has less overall demand than Inkmoth Nexus. It’s really only played in one Modern deck, but it’s a good one, and shows up in top eights fairly regularly. It does also show up in Legacy, but uh, who cares.

As for the deck itself, it’s a solid turn 3.5 strategy. The last few months it has seen a decrease in play as the format sped up, with Infect and Dredge putting intense clocks on the format, though the recent banning of Gitaxian Probe is slowing things down. Modern has been more forgiving to a wider range of strategies as a result.

Supply is on the lower side for Ad Nauseam, with less than a page of NM copies available. Without a reprint in MM3, it wouldn’t take long at all for supply to empty. Living End used to cost $15, and that’s a card without any more application potential than Ad Naus, so I see no reason why it couldn’t climb to the same point.

Worth keeping in mind as well that Lotus Bloom is in a similar situation with regards to current playability. The inventory on that guy is higher, with both its original TSP printing and also MMA, but at the same time it has wider-reaching applications with Reshape floating around, as well as the new Chord of Calling for artifacts, which would allow you to go from three mana to six or seven the following turn.


MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 54 (Feb 9/17)

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Feb 9, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

Sigil of Distinction

Sigil of Distinction (SOA, Rare)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $3.50
Gain: +$3.00 (+600%)

Esper Charm (SOA, Foil Uncommon)
Start: $7.00
Finish: $30.00
Gain: +$12.00 (+325%)

Sleight of Hand (9th, Common Foil)
Start: $30.00
Finish: $95.00
Gain: +$65.00 (+215%)

Scrapheap Scrounger (KLD, Rare)
Start: $2.00
Finish: $4.50
Gain: +$2.50 (+125%)

Sinbad (ARN,UNC )
Start: $3.25
Finish: $7.00
Gain: +$3.75 (+115%)

Memory Jar (Urza’s Legacy, Foil Rare)
Start: $30.00
Finish: $60.00
Gain: +$30.00 (+100%)

Heart of Kiran (AER, Mythic)
Start: $15.00
Finish: $25.00
Gain: +$10.00 (+67%)
Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James’ Picks:

Aetherworks Marvel

  1. Aetherworks Marvel (KLD, Mythic)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $4.00 to $10.00 (+6.00/150%) 0-12+ months)

2. Kari Zev’s Expertise (AER, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $3.00 to $10.00 (+7.00/+233%, 12+ months)

3. Baral, Chief of Compliance (AER, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $8.00 (Target) to $20.00 (+12.00/+150%, 0-12+ months)

Travis’ Picks:

  1. Astral Cornucopia (BNG, Foil Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $2.00 to $10.00 (+8.00/+400%, 0-12+ months)

2. Crystalline Crawler (C16, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 6: $2.50 to $8.00 (+6.50/+220%, 0-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

James & Travis reviewed the results of Pro Tour Aether Revolt and the cards to watch in the aftermath.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

The guys touched on selling out of MTGO, recent successes with EU arbitrage and the cards they least want to be holding heading into Modern Masters 2017 previews in a few weeks.

CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY