Looking Behind to Look Ahead

January 4, 2016 Jared Yost 3 Comments

It’s that time of year again. The time to look at the past to see where we might be headed into the future. I’m going to list all the articles I’ve written over the past year below that have generated a good discussion, so that we can review them one more time to know where we might be headed in the future. My hope by doing this is to see what predictions have gone wrong for me, which have gone better, and which we can learn from to see how we can approach Magic finance.

Battle for Fatpacks

This article takes the top spot for most comments of the articles I’ve authored in 2015. I’m not surprised that it generated so many comments – after all, we thought items like fatpacks were immutable to market pressure because Wizards could just print more of them… but we learned very quickly that wasn’t the case.

Looking at it again, the article was meant to highlight that this was a highly unusual case for fatpacks because they usually just sit on the shelves at your local game store, gathering dust until someone wants another box for their collection and also decides that they should get a few packs at the same time. Unfortunately, until we get more of the same type of fatpacks in Oath of the Gatewatch we’re still going to see $60+ prices on these guys. Even after more land packs are introduced, I’m not sure if the fatpacks from BFZ block will ever fall below retail due to the huge demand for full art lands.

Modern Masters 2015 Controversy

My next most commented article, this piece highlighted the extreme divergence from a value-centered Modern Masters 2013 set to a… let’s be generous and say limited centric experience for those opening Modern Masters 2015 boosters. Specifically, the rares of Modern Masters 2015 were a total trainwreck in terms of value. It had more than double the amount of bulk rares that Modern Masters 2013 included. Thus, many players were frustrated with the fact that pack prices increased while the value of opening single packs over boxes (basically, drafting the set) decreased.

Out takeaway here is that Modern Masters sets will keep giving us stuff like Tarmogoyf and Cryptic Command but otherwise will start focusing on limited more than the value of the rares included.

In Modern Masters’ Wake

This blurb was a catch-all of the comments I had concerning prices after the release of Modern Masters 2015 and leading into the Grand Prix that followed the release weekend. I noted that cards like Primeval Titan didn’t shift much in price after the release, while others were on their way up and up hard. As we all remember, Snapcaster Mage experienced a humungous spike because of the omission of Innistrad from the set. Other random cards, like foil Omniscience, also spiked at the time since they too managed a reprint dodge.

Of course, since then many of these cards have settled down from their post-release spikes but could yet again see another resurgence in price as the next Modern season approaches. Modern is quite an unpredictable beast, so it will be hard to tell which cards will spike the hardest but we’ll definitely be seeing higher prices on many Modern staples as the season approaches more closely.

Modern Masters 2015 – Release Weekend Update

This article highlighted all the issues I researched concerning the release of Modern Masters 2015. I think this article, along with my one about the general value of rares you can expect to pull out of a pack, are quite telling in terms of the quality control of the set.

You can check out the article for specifics, but there were a ton of issues with the green packs that Wizards created for this Modern Masters release. Collation issues, in pack damage (something also seen with foil Expeditions *sigh*), and other mishaps like order allocation scares were enough to get people like myself to notice and comment. Hopefully this year we’ll experience less issues with premium set releases, though based on Expedition damage issues I’m not sure if the quality control measures have been fully implemented at this point.

Goodbye to Theros, Hello to Holds

Here I commented on which cards from Theros block were the best targets to hold moving forward. I still maintain that Thoughtseize is the strongest target since it is the best discard spell in the Modern format at rare. Foils are still a great pickup, since they haven’t moved in price since I commented and I believe that they have nowhere to go but up until the next reprinting.

Check out the article for more thoughts on where I think certain Theros staples are heading in the future.

Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

My most exciting clash pack review to date, this review generated buzz since it contained Windswept Heath! Now that we know that precon products like clash packs will contain in-demand Standard staples, as well as event decks containing mythic rares, I think it is a wake up call to us all that Standard staples are not great speculation targets anymore – not unless you pick them up in preorders before the set is released, and it is always a difficult thing to predict the metagame.

We all have our stories of failed speculation targets, and mine are also included among those. What this clash pack has taught me is that I need to be even more careful when picking up Standard cards for future gains, and I think instead I will need to think about their appeal in Modern and beyond (as well as foil pros and cons) before acquiring any Standard legal cards moving forward.

The Spread on Fate Reforged

Though I looked at Fate Reforged as a whole in this article, I’ve more highlighted the fact that Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is an unusually popular casual card – so much so that it continued to demand a $30 and higher retail tag even after the set had saturated the market. I’m not one to say I told you so but… Ugin is now a $50, and won’t go down until Fate Reforged rotates from Standard.

Foil Ugins, on the other hand, have dropped in price considerably since I wrote that article. Since Standard players rarely have need of foils, the initial Commander got-to-have-it-now hype has died down and you will be able to get a great deal on a foil Ugin over the coming months as Fate Reforged rotates from Standard.

The Timeless Adventures of Monastery Mentor

The other incredible mythic rare from Fate Reforged, Monastery Mentor, also deserved his own article from your’s truly since I believe that he has great eternal appeal based on early results from tournaments after Fate Reforged was released.

A nice win for me, my own copies that I procured back in April after I wrote the article have appreciated well. According to the price history, that was the low point for foil mentors and they’ve gone past $70 each retail since then. I hope you all were also able to pick up foil Mentors throughout the early stages of last year before they crossed $50 or even $60.

Jace, the $40 Origins Mythic

Here, I spent a great deal of time considering Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and why his price history was mirroring that of most broken planeswalker of all time, Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

Even now, I fear that I underestimate the power of little Jace in eternal formats. He seems to keep exceeding all of my expectations for what a Standard legal card can become value-wise. Now, I’m thinking that his price will never go below $30 since the demand he sees in Modern (along with a short print run of Origins) will forever keep him in the low $30 range until the inevitable reprint happens.

Tradewind Rider – Riding the Tides of the Trade

Finally, the last article I want to talk about it has a more personal touch to it than many articles I release for MTGPrice. The article poses the question “Is it worth it to trade anymore?” based on several premises such as the time to trade, more cutthroat approach to trading, and condition-based trading that seems to be happening these days.

The piece probably strikes most of you as something that an old curmudgeon harpening back on the glory days of Magic trading would spew, and there certainly is quite a bit of complaining to back that up. Maybe I’ve been neglecting to fully utilize and learn the new tools of the trade that have been given to the player community. After looking at this article again I want to make it one of Magic related news years resolutions to finally not be frustrated with the way trading happens for me these days, and instead to embrace technology for the additional opportunities it grants me rather than the slow-down it seems to have become. Puca banning users from selling points hurts trading on that exchange somewhat, but even then I still think it is a great way to pick up Commander and Cube staples that I have a hard time finding locally.

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Modern Season Is Upon Us

January 4, 2016 Sigmund Ausfresser 4 Comments

The Modern hype is here and it’s very much for real. I am embarrassed for even momentarily suggesting Modern may be hitting a plateau as far as interest is concerned. Last week I went as far as to use wishy washy language surrounding my prediction for how Modern cards would perform come 2016. Clearly, Modern season is going to offer up significant opportunity. And with record breaking Star City Open attendance in Cincinnati this weekend (1,022 participants) it’s clear there’s more growth ahead.

All that said, it’s really interesting to see which cards have already began ascent and which have remained stagnant. Even with some metagame evolution, a large portion of the mainstays of Modern should still be relevant – Affinity, Tron, Splinter Twin, Infect, etc. Yet when I review the top movers so far in 2016, I’m seeing almost all the growth thus far occurring with Eldrazi cards, presumably due to the current block.

Despite being narrow in scope, I believe the data out there is strong enough to conclude Modern will once again be a lucrative format to speculate on. But the train is already leaving the station – in fact, it’s already nearing its final destination on stuff like Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple. With that in mind, I’m going to look to a couple ideas that are still worth pursuing as the Modern hype rapidly approaches its peak for the first half of 2016.

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Casual Fridays

Resolutions Revisited

January 1, 2016 Cliff Daigle 2 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Almost a year ago, I made a set of resolutions, which can be found here.

Today, 51 weeks later, I want to go over how I’ve done and make some new ones. In case you haven’t noticed, I’m big on self-reflection.

2015

#1: Play More Magic

I have played more and I’m on track to do even better this year. My kids are a year older and a GP is coming to my area this month!

It’s also been a lot of fun to try out a lot of different card shops. Different events, different people, but the same great goal.

#2: Don’t Cash Out

I did not live up to this, as I sold off my Kaalia deck and a few other pieces to get a security deposit. It happens, but I’ll try not to have it happen again. Plus, it gave me an excuse to build Surrak Dragonclaw.

Some of the prices are just wow. As I’ve noted, Cavern of Souls is a ridiculous card and you should move your spare copies before the inevitable reprint.

#3: Reorg Binders

I failed at this too, and I have a fifth binder now: PucaTrade. Argh. I definitely need to stop carrying them all with me, too.

#4: Introduce a New Player to Magic

I’ve gotten several of my students interested. Big hit this year. Maybe a Magic club next year.

It’s easiest when they already play Hearthstone or other CCGs but Magic is the best of them all.

#5: Watch More Magic!

I would say I have been successful at this, especially if you ask my wife. The replays and archives on YouTube are easy and accessible and my only beef is that it’s hard to see all the cards in a MTGO pack.

Perhaps that’s why I find I enjoy watching the real life drafts more than I do the online ones, but there’s just not as many.

And like many others, I’m going to miss Patrick Sullivan on coverage.

#6: Continue not Playing Online

I have to admit, the various incarnations of Cube have been tempting. The legendary cube especially, that is something designed to get me out of my usual space. Powered cubes aren’t as interesting to me, especially when I’m paying for the privilege of losing on turn three.

It has not yet been worth the actual money and the investment of time.

#7: Get That Foil Foreign Akroma, and Foreign White Border Scrublands & Badlands

I ended up selling this deck not long after the year started so this became moot. Alas.

#8: Use eBay More

I have done this more but not as much as I likely should. I did more selling on eBay than buying, that always feels nice.

The simple truth remains that I don’t have the high levels of disposable income to be an eBay wizard, and I’m okay with that.

With that review in mind, let me make a few new ones for this year:

2016

#1: Use PucaTrade to Acquire a Gaea’s Cradle.

I wrote about my misgivings for Puca a few weeks ago and I’ve had more than a few good conversations about it. I’m still wary of the purchasing power but I’m going to give it a shot. Getting the points won’t be hard (Cavern of Souls is 4000!) and Cradle is a card that I desperately want.

I haven’t yet signed up for the paid tiers of Puca, but I want foils badly and so I just might start that soon.

#2: Have a Regular Magic scene

I’ve moved four times in the past five years. It’s been hard to have a regular thing but this is a goal, a very attainable one.

My goal this year is to be part of a regular Commander group. I’ve been sporadically attending and I want to build that community again. I don’t think I want to have to tune all my decks for a local meta, but I would love to have a regular group without a lot of infinite combos or resource denial decks.

#3: Trust my reads more

Sometimes when I write an article and highlight a card, I pick up a few copies. Kolaghan’s Command is the first time I had the impulse to go super deep and I ended up being shallow.

Granted, I have big stacks of other cards that haven’t panned out at all (Aurelia the Warleader, Thespian’s Stage, Prophet of Kruphix, etc.) but I KNEW it was underpriced and I didn’t move very much.

#4: Get and stay organized

I have multiple binders still. I have rows of I sorted cards. I have a paper box marked Puca. I have packed away my old decks filled with random treasure, like TurboThallid holding a set of Earthcraft.

I need to get everything sorted and accessible.

That’s my breakdown for this year. What are some of your goals?

Conjured Currency

The Finance Article With Almost No Finance

December 31, 2015 Douglas Johnson 3 Comments

The Last MTG Finance Article of 2015

Welcome back. It’s the end of 2015, so let’s get that hooplah out of the way. It seems like just yesterday I was still writing for Brainstorm Brewery and regularly attending FNM like an actual player. I would not have predicted that this position (in writing and Magic) was where I would be one year ago, and I hope that I can continue to provide and improve on my content through 2016.

I’m not the only one that’s changed in a year though; I’m sure you have too, and Magic itself is quite different. Our subculture of MTG finance has certainly come a long way in the past 365 days: we’re moving into uncharted territory with a new rotation schedule and block structure, WOTC’s reports suggest that the playerbase hasn’t increased as steadily in 2015 as in past years, and we have more tools than ever before to keep our finger on the pulse of the game that we love.

To be perfectly honest, the amount of content that is produced on a daily or weekly basis concerning MTG finance is staggering.We at MTGPrice have a staff of over a dozen writers, with at least two articles being released every weekday in addition to a running spoiler coverage of each upcoming set, as well as a number of other tools. We have MTG Stocks giving us daily and weekly interests so you can check what the most recent movers and shakers are and avoid getting ripped off while trading at FNM. Sites like MTGGoldfish also provide a ton of information to help you aggregate data about the metagame, frequency of specific cards appearing in decks, and showing you affordable lists that you can put together on a budget. Even /r/mtgfinance has grown to over 10,000 subscribers in the short couple of years it’s existed, and you can (usually) find a healthy discussion on whatever question or topic you want.

Too Much Information?

In reality, you can only consume so much of it all before you start to get diminishing returns. If you try to read every single MTG finance article that comes out on every single website daily, you’ll end up losing a large percentage of the information and not using the rest of it because it was irrelevant to you in particular. Don’t get the wrong idea; I do think that there’s value in a Modern player reading some of Jason’s articles about Commander, because you don’t want to miss out on Exsanguinates while picking your first collection. However, there’s a balance between ignoring the content available to you and trying to become the omniscient MTG finance guru just by spending three hours each day scouring articles and listening to podcasts.

The goal of this article is not to teach you something about bulk rares or the new Standard rotation. I’m not going to mention any specific cards to pick up or stay away from, nor pull a “review of 2015” out of thin air.

Instead, I want to start a discussion on how you can go about consuming Magic content more efficiently, and cutting out the content that you won’t use or need. This was something I wanted to write about because of something I read recently on /r/mtgfinance, where a Redditor was complaining that content concerning the finance aspect of our game was reaching a tipping point of quantity over quality. To an extent, I think there’s some truth to that. The existence of deadlines will inherently push for content to be created, even when there’s unfortunately not a lot to talk about.

That’s where you come in. There are a few articles that follow this basic structure: “Here’s this thing I’m really good at. This is how you do that thing. These are the basics of doing that thing, and the rest of my articles will go into depth on it,” kind of like what I do with bulk rares. On the other side of the coin, there are so many more that are more of a “I think that thing Y might happen this way next year. There are a few reasons why that might be the case, and there are a couple of other reasons why that might not be true at all.” I’ve written my share of those as well, and it doesn’t feel great. It’s unfortunate, because these articles can make the reader feel like they wasted their time (hopefully this article hasn’t made you feel that way yet).

“So where do I come in to this equation?” –Some reader

Oh, right. I, for one, write articles to be treated as a starting point of discussion for whatever topic or question that I’m writing about. Even if you disagree with a point or idea that a writer has made, posting that can still contribute to the topic that we’re trying to unravel. When it comes to unexplored territory like the Expeditions lands, we don’t have anymore information than you do. If you want to absorb more information from each piece of content that you dedicate some amount of time to, it’s well worth it to type out your thoughts or responses in the comments section (if there is one), or start a discussion on Reddit or some other forum where like-minded individuals can politely bring up points and counterpoints.

With the MTG finance subreddit floodgates being opened back up, I’m crossing my fingers and hoping to see a lot of quality content being produced and posted there. The subreddit has gotten a lot of accusations of being “just a place for writers to dump their articles,” and I’m hoping that will change as the more experienced members of the community join together to downvote the random garbage that gets posted. Dedicated readers will gain a lot more from the forum through active participation and eventually creation of their own articles, like Jeremy did months ago.

Not Every Card/Article is Designed for You

Wizards gets a lot of hate for printing cards that “don’t do anything,” or cards that don’t appear to generate excitement for any player in the vocal market. If you’re following along on Jason’s and my spoiler coverage for Oath of the Gatewatch, you know that I’ve been very, uh, disappointed at the power level of several revealed rares so far. A card like Durdle Dragon #76 really grind my gears because I already know its financial future, there’s nothing exciting to read on the card itself, and it makes the set that much less exciting. However, that doesn’t mean that nobody cares about that card at all. There’s a reason Wizards continues to print durdle dragon after durdle angel: they continue to get new players hooked and excited when they open booster packs, similar to how those exact players complain about opening the same fetch lands and battle lands that get competitive players excited.

The same holds true for MTG finance content. I would honestly be shocked if you told me that you read every single article that comes out on MTGPrice, every day of the week. I’d be flattered, but still surprised. If you’re a Standard-only player who has no interest in grinding collections, then you might not need to read every single one of my articles (unless you’re looking for boyish charm and beautifully articulated word salad). I mostly write about how to grow your own individual collection into a store-esque situation where you turn into “that guy” at your LGS who has everything and is willing to part with everything. My articles aren’t designed for that Standard grinder in particular, unless he or she is looking to dive into the world of collection buying. Thankfully, we have Jim Casale on staff, a Standard grinder himself.

In short, there are better ways to learn about MTG finance than just reading every MTG finance article that pops up on your Twitter feed. I think questioning authors and creating your own content are steps in the right direction. Did I spend a week’s worth of writing telling you to post in the comments section, skim through some articles, and go join r/mtgfinance? Damn right I did. I relish in the irony of it all, and I’ll be back next week with a sequel to the best article ever written in the history of articles written.

End Step

Happy New Year!

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