Foiling for Fun and Profit

December 18, 2015 Cliff Daigle 6 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

I’ve mentioned my all-foil deck before, but it only recently occurred to me that a decklist isn’t a bad idea, particularly in regard to the investment that this turned out to be.

Garza Zol, Plague Queen

Creatures:
Nirkana Revenant
Falkenrath Marauders
Soul Collector (Scourge Promo)
Blood Tyrant
Rakish Heir
Anowon, the Ruin Sage
Hero’s Downfall
Bloodlord of Vaasgoth (Promo)
Mirri the Cursed
Olivia Voldaren
Falkenrath Noble
Vampire Nocturnus (Promo)
Necropolis Regent
Kalastria Highborn (Full Art Promo)
Sangromancer
Butcher of Malakir
Unscythe, Killer of Kings
Szadek, Lord of Secrets
Dark Impostor
Ascendant Evincar
Kalitas, Bloodchief of Ghet
Falkenrath Aristocrat
Captivating Vampire
Kheru Bloodsucker
Sengir Vampire (foil Italian 9th)
Vampire Hexmage
Guul Draz Assassin (Buy-a-Box)
Stromkirk Captain
Vein Drinker
Sengir Nosferatu
Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief
Bloodline Keeper
Markov Blademaster
Moroii
Vampire Nighthawk (Promo)
Vampiric Dragon
Bloodghast
Malakir Bloodwitch
Duskmantle Seer

Planeswalkers
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker

Enchantments
Oversold Cemetery
Rhystic Study (Commander’s Arsenal)
Phyrexian Arena (9th)
Bloodchief Ascension

Artifacts
Gilded Lotus (M13)
Urza’s Incubator
Mind’s Eye (CA)
Obelisk of Urd
Sol Ring (FTV)
Armillary Sphere
Gem of Becoming
Blade of the Bloodchief

Instants
Chaos Warp (Commander’s Arsenal)
Countersquall
Magmaquake (Game day)
Cryptic Command (MPR)

Sorceries
Increasing Ambition
Blood Tribute
Black Sun’s Zenith (Game Day)
In Garruk’s Wake (Promo)
Rise of the Dark Realms
Rite of Replication
Patriarch’s Bidding
Damnation (MPR)

Lands
Steam Vents (RTR)
Watery Grave (GTC)
Blood Crypt (RTR)
Drowned Catacomb (M12)
Dragonskull Summit (M12)
Graven Cairns (Shadowmoor)
Rakdos Carnarium (GPT)
Dimir Aqueduct (RAV)
Izzet Boilerworks (DIS)
Temple of Deceit
Temple of Epiphany
Temple of Malice
Bloodstained Mire (KTK)
Thespian’s Stage
Transguild Promenade
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
Temple of the False God
Crumbling Necropolis
Reliquary Tower (FNM)
Cavern of Souls
Mana Confluence
Command Tower (judge promo)
Rupture Spire
Bojuka Bog
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgnoth
5 Swamp (all signed by the EDH Rules Committee)
3 Mountain
2 Island

I finished foiling this deck out in 2013, not long before I started writing for MTGPrice. The deck has changed slightly, and for today’s purposes, it’s worth mentioning that I had the other filter lands and Sulfur Falls, but the prices on those cards went so bananas that I felt I had to sell.

Today I want to make the case to you that foiling out a deck, a cube, or a collection is more than a way to satisfy the inner magpie, it’s an investment in a lot of ways.

Philosophy #1: Foil versions are printed less often, including reprints.

This is the basic tenet for picking up foil versions of cards. Foils are currently printed when the card is in Standard, when there’s a special set that has foil versions (such as Conspiracy or Modern Masters) and short-run special printings, like Judge promos, alternate-art versions in Clash Packs, and From the Vault sets.

That’s it. The card is in Standard or it’s a special reprint to get a foil version. This includes Magic Online redemptions, as that’s only an option for a limited time.

Because there are not only less foil versions as compared to the nonfoils, and the options for reprinting foils are significantly fewer, there just won’t be many foils. This leads to the foil multiplier, an unofficial metric that I use when figuring out how hard to chase a card.

Usually, a card in foil is about two to two and a half times as valuable. This general rule works for almost any card that isn’t subject to greater Legacy/Modern/casual demand, and variations in that rule indicate one of two things: The card is in great demand because it’s ubiquitous, especially in Standard; or the demand for a special version is much higher.

Let’s look at a few examples:

Anafenza, the Foremost is 5.99 regular and $13 in foil, including the Prerelease promos. She isn’t in heavy foil demand, keeping the multiplier at a little above two.

Rending Volley is 55 cents nonfoils, and as far as foils go there’s only Amazon at 4.49 and Card Kingdom at $6. Bouncing over to TCGPlayer, we see that the lowest is about $6 before shipping. That’s a multiplier of about 12, and a sign that the card is being picked up in older formats. Sure enough, it’s a popular sideboard option in Modern and occasionally Legacy.

The Chain Veil is $1.36 in normal and about $7 in foil, entirely due to casual demand. The only decklists I can find for it are Commander decks with lots of planeswalkers and that want to repeat using their effects over and over.

Checking the foil multiplier is how I like to gauge its appeal outside of Standard, and is a good measure of its likely future value.

Philosophy #2: Foils are more resistant to losing value when reprinted.

Note that I am not saying immune, I’m saying resistant. The price will likely drop at first but it won’t drop as far and it will eventually recover. Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite is an example.

She took a hit, being a foil in Modern Masters 2015 but it was for about 30% of her value, as compared to losing more than half with the nonfoil. The judge promo also puts a limit on her upper value, as it represents a very chase target, especially being written in Phyrexian script.

Notice, though, that large period of time when the foil was in the sub-$40 range. That’s the goal and the dream. If you foil out your deck when foils are new, then the price is perfect.

When a foil is reprinted, it’s very rarely in the same art and the same frame. Even when it is, the price will often rebound over time.

Case in point: Phyrexian Arena. Even with three foil versions (Apocalypse, 8th, and 9th) the card is old enough and awesome enough that all the versions are about $60.

Philosophy #3: Foil lands are often the hardest to acquire, the most expensive, and therefore the safest long-term value.

The cards that took me the longest to acquire were the Ravnica block bounce lands. No store had them in stock, and it seemed like no one had them for trade. Ever. It was easier to find filter lands, shocks, and everything else, but those bounce lands took me six months past the rest of them to get. Only when I saw on a message board that someone was breaking up a foil Cube did I get these lands.

Interestingly, those bounce lands had started to really increase in price from a stable $4 when Modern Masters 2015 came along. The originals have kept most of their value, while the new ones are about half that price. I think scarcity is at work there, in that the original foils are in decks and not in circulation.

I’m going to be watching the foil prices of the filter lands closely now that the Expeditions lands have been spoiled. Is it going to depress prices? Hold down the upper ones? Will the originals be on the market if lots of people upgrade to the newest versions?

Philosophy #4: Foils can be in worse condition, and there will still be a market.

Trust me on this: People who want foils want the foils badly. Being in less-than-perfect condition isn’t much of a barrier to acquisition. I wouldn’t give full value, don’t get me wrong, but a SP foil of a card I need in foil is going to have me drooling hard.

Selling the SP/MP/HP foil is not easy, but when you find the person who wants to have it, they will happily take it off of your hands.

Philosophy #5: Nonfoil reprints can increase the price of your foil.

Let’s look at Black Market, the foil from Mercadian Masques.

Being a $4 card in the newest Commander set hasn’t budged this price yet. But what it has done is increase the number of people who know about this card. From there, it’s only a matter of time before the larger number of decks it’s in translates to a greater demand for the foil.

Another example from two years ago: Forced Fruition. This was one of many cards to see a spike because lots of Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks. The nonfoil spiked, as did the foil. If this had been Standard, then the foils wouldn’t be much more than the regular version. Instead, we have a foil multiplier of a little more than two.

If you want to share other tips, tricks, or reasons to go foil, please feel free to comment. I try not to have this be a humblebrag about how I got in before things got expensive, but that’s what happened. It can also happen to you, if you start foiling now.

Corbin Hosler, ProTrader

PROTRADER: Selling the Massive Collection

December 17, 2015 Corbin Hosler

Hey, guys, today I’ll wrap up my three-part series on collection buying and selling. If you haven’t read them yet, I highly suggest checking out part one (buying) and part two (sorting/picking), as that will lead you up into this week’s piece. After wrapping up this series (thanks for the great feedback, by the way!), I’ll be back next week as we dig into Oath of the Gatewatch. Until then, you can find our full spoiler coverage by Douglas Johnson and Jason Alt here.

When we left off last time, you were picking and sorting your collection into the things you were going to sell. Today, it’s time to take these big stacks of cards and turn them into money.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

P.S. If anyone’s interested in some strategy content, it turns out I do a little bit of that from time to time as well. This week I wrote a detailed primer, complete with videos, on the Mono-Blue Extra Turns deck in Modern over at Brainstorm Brewery. Feel free to check it out and subscribe to the YouTube channel if you enjoy the content.

Conjured Currency, Douglas Johnson

Foil Modern Commons

December 17, 2015 Douglas Johnson 7 Comments

Because I was sitting in my bedroom at a loss for something to write about this week, I reached out to the Twitterverse as an attempt to stir an idea. Thankfully, @PhillyB322 had a great suggestion for a starting point to kick things off.

Literally

At this point, you’re probably thinking; “Really? Literally no store has foil Blighted Agents? Pshhhh.. Hyperbole at its’ fin-”

Wow. Huh. I literally cannot find a single foil Blighted Agent on the U.S. market. No beat up copies, nothing on eBay, ABU, CK… Wow. After some further research, I managed to find the European market stocked with a few copies, if you A) really need them for your own Infect deck or B) are convinced that these can jump to $25 or $30.

So what’s the reasoning behind the vanishing act? It doesn’t look like someone bought out the entire internet recently with the intent to make a profit. If they did, I think we would have seen players and store owners coming out of the woodwork: digging their copies out of bulk, swapping them from decks, and listing them online to start a race to the bottom. If we check the MTG Stocks foil graph, the only recent movement that the foil has shown is a slight bump from $14 to $18 in the past month or so.

So What’s the Takeaway?

So what’s our battle plan with this information? Do we go narrow within the deck Blighted Agent sees play in, and pick up other foil Infect stuff? I can’t really think of anything else in the deck that has a similar multiplier that’s ready to jump. We missed the boat on Groundswell foils (well, I did; I sold mine on TCGplayer for around $4 if I remember correctly. You might have made a bunch of money buying my copies, and would be laughing at me right now), while the non-foil continued to be pressured into the ground by the reprint that it received in Duel Decks: Zendikar vs. Eldrazi.

Some of you know that I’ve been on the Glistener Elf train for a while; I still firmly believe that holding non-foils of Elf and Agent are the correct play (buylisting them at $.10 and $.25 seems criminal while Deceiver Exarch is chillin’ like a villain at $3.50, even with the aid of a reprint in the Commander 2013 set. If you have the privilege of picking NPH bulk, I’d hesitate on shipping those Modern common/uncommon pieces, at least until the end of winter.

Foils of Glistener Elf might also be a play at $4 to $5. I’ve been holding onto these for almost a year now (I think), but I keep holding off on selling them because I think it’s absurd that such a hard-to-reprint card that sees play as a four-of in a Modern combo deck could hang out at $4 to $5. I know that it got an FNM promo a few years back, but still…

Going Wide

Alternatively, we could jump over to other Modern decks with commons and uncommons with foil multipliers that appear to be criminally low. You’d be surprised at how little Modern play a card needs to see to be worth money: my friend Izzet Staticaster from back in my Kiki-Pod days is now a $10 to $12 foil, even though it basically only sees play as a one-of in the Grixis Control and Grixis Twin lists. Is this also a common Cube card that I’m not aware of? It’s from a more recent set than the Infect twins, sees less play, and yet the foil has still been holding its own at the post-spike price for about a month now.

Hmm…. So what’s an example of a highly played, foil, Modern common that hasn’t already spiked? Well, maybe this little guy here:

While he does have a Gateway promo from back in the yonder days, I’m definitely surprised to see this little flier so cheap. Is this the next Izzet Staticaster? It certainly sees enough play as a consistent four-of in Affinity, ruining the lives of mono-red players everywhere. It’s hard to reprint again with that good, ol’ Phyrexian mana, and you can pick up a playset of either version for around $10. While I’m not one to normally speculate on cards at full retail, I definitely like Vault Skirge foils going forward into Modern season.

Is there anything else from Affinity that we can look to in the relatively under-appreciated commons and uncommons? While most of them have been reprinted into dust, the pack foil of Signal Pest has been lagging behind its promo version. Whether that’s simply due to an art preference is open to debate, but if you’re looking to foil out an Affinity deck, I would start with these two aggressive and cheap (in both senses of the word) one-drops.

End Step

SCG gets a bad reputation sometimes for having overpriced cards. That’s literally the only complaint you can honestly make about the store, and it’s not even their fault for charging prices that people are willing to pay. However, their holiday sales are definitely worth checking out. Here’s what I just recently picked up from the $1 sale:
Unfortunately, a lot of the cards that I was originally going to buy didn’t make it to the end of the checkout process. I was going to get away with 43 SP copies of Boundless Realms at $1 each, but someone else sniped them before I could finish my purchase. The same goes for those other 10 copies of Heartless Summoning, and about 15 more Mimic Vats.
The Seize the Day are for an arbitrage attempt, so we’ll see how that goes. My experience with SCG’s grading has been extremely positive, and most of the SP cards that I’ve ordered from them have been NM by my and my customers’ standards. I’m hoping that MP will basically be my SP, so that I can still make a few dollars by just shipping out most of those Seizes to another store, even after the dust is settled with grading.
As a closing statement, I’d like to remind you to check out as soon as possible when you find a great deal like those Boundless Realms that I missed out on. I got greedy by putting them in my cart, and scanning through the rest of the $1 sale to see if I wanted to add anything else to my cart beforehand. If I had locked in that order of 43 Boundless Realms first, it would have been well worth paying the shipping costs for separate orders by making sure nobody else could snipe them out from under me. Misplays were made, and lessons learned!

Brainstorm Brewery

Brainstorm Brewery #175 – Instances of Sorceries

December 17, 2015 Jason Alt

Corbin starts us off by regaling all of us with a tale of his pocket getting “picketed” and we’re off to the races with a great episode where clearly we know there isn’t a lot to talk about Magic-wise until we start discussing it and, holy crap there’s actually a lot to talk about. The episode goes a little long. These things happen. The important thing to remember is that we’re your favorite Magic podcast and Corbin getting robbed is hilarious. There’s time to discuss spoilers, why it’s terrible that we have so many spoilers, and why this set is going to be a real financial curveball.

Corbin’s picket-pocket story
SPERLERS! Sperlers galore!
Expeditions are discussed at length
Potential new fair dual lands?
Support our Patreon! DO IT. You know this cast makes you more than $1 a week
We’re serious about the Patreon. Expect new perks.
Need to contact us? Hit up BrainstormBrew@gmail.com

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