The Title Isn’t Important, Izzet?

It’s getting increasingly difficult, but I still feel like it’s necessary to preface these articles by letting you all know that you’ve stumbled midway into an ongoing series. Most of you know that, I’m sure, but wouldn’t I be remiss if I didn’t do this? I might not, I don’t actually know.

The point is, this is happening and you’re just going to have to sit there and take it. Part one was Orzhov and I introduced the series and its goals. Read it if you’re not sure why I keep talking about Wurmcoil Engine. Part two was Golgari, and while a few readers and I differ on whether we think Abrupt Decay is a likely reprint, we can agree that Eternal Witness will be in the deck because it’s already spoiled.  Part three was Simic, and while I love to play Simic decks, I acknowledge that the only two types of cards Simic gets are 1) cards you don’t want to play because they suck and 2) cards you don’t want to play because everyone wants to murder you in the face.

And Then There Was Blue-Red

Izzet is a bit of a different animal altogether. Izzet does a lot of things well, but it’s hard to know how the commander will be designed and built around. First, we should talk about the commander in case you didn’t catch the update to the spoiler I wrote. We have a card besides Eternal Witness spoiled, after all.

kalemnediscipleofiroas

Will every commander give experience counters? It’s hard to say. In the Simic article, as well as an older Simic article linked in that Simic article because I love my shotcalls nested like Matryoshka dolls, I said I liked Contagion Engine as a pickup. So did a lot of people, it would seem. Since the foil won’t be reprinted in one of these decks, the foil went insane. Previously a $5 card, foil Contagion Engines are up to $90 on TCGplayer and moving it would seem. Who’s paying more than $25 for a Foil Contagion Engine? Not me. Let things calm down and hold off on the foil until it comes back to reality. I wouldn’t touch the non-foil, since Golgari could run it to give -1/-1 counters and kill creatures and Simic could run it just for removal of any kind on top of a counter proliferation theme. Heck, any of the decks could conceivably have the Engine to proliferate experience counters. I’m not bullish like I was given the feeding frenzy, and if you got your copies weeks ago when I suggested it, sell into the hype most assuredly.

With that out of the way, let’s talk a bit about what Izzet is used to doing well and try and see if we can’t puzzle out what’s in store in the blue-red Commander 2015 deck.

Instants and Sorceries

There aren’t a ton of rare cards that aren’t total bulk rares that fit with this theme. There’s not a ton to really discuss here, but let’s rule a few things out.

First of all, Snapcaster Mage would be a nice pipe dream and would certainly make the deck sell, but there’s not much chance of it getting reprinted in a Commander 2015 deck. I only mention it because while there was like a five-percent chance before, that has slid closer to zero percent with this announcement:

pUt2J40

We are getting a (small) number of Snapcaster Mages into the hands of players, but with such a limited printing, it’s hard to imagine this will affect the price one iota, and it may even backfire by pushing the price up, since a reprinting makes it less likely another reprinting method will go into effect any time soon.

One card I could see would nip its price in the bud.

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This seems like a reasonable card to print in the deck. It would bring the price down, would fit well with an instants and sorceries theme, and it does some of what Snapcaster does but not as well, meaning it is a good power level for a preconstructed deck. Dualcaster Mage was a very poor attempt at a card like this, and Abbot is playable in more formats, giving its price a little more upside.

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Despite a few obvious “buy this promo out on TCGplayer because there are seven copies listed and post mine at $100 to see what happens” attempts, this card could be a $10 promo someday. A reprint in the deck wouldn’t do much to the foil, and a few cards to build around it could make this deck choice more popular. I don’t expect this to be a commander, but I could see it in the 99, since Wizards tends to put a few other cards that could be a commander inside each deck. This is certainly on-theme with instants and sorceries.

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This is another card that could be a commander and could be wedged into the 99 if it’s sufficiently on-theme for how the deck is built. This is a bit of a complete build-around, but it rewards you for playing a lot of spells, and at instant speed to boot. I looked at a few Tibor and Lumia decklists to see if there were any slick cards to consider in them commonly.

If you’re not using EDHrec as a resource because you’re not interested in building EDH decks, you’re missing out on one of the best resources possible for an EDH financier. There is so much data here it’s breathtaking. Sure a given card could be good in a particular deck, but how many people are playing that card?

Here’s the data for Tibor and Lumia, and it’s worth analyzing along with me. There are quite a few goodies in here, and while I don’t expect a card like Basilisk Collar in a deck where Tibor and Lumia are not the commander, or even in one where they are, it’s one card that needs a reprint or it will continue to grow. Basilisk Collar is a very useful card in all kinds of decks and while more mana-intensive alternatives like Gorgon’s Flail and Quietus Spike exist, they’re not quite the same (though I would argue I prefer Quietus Spike in a lot of decks, especially if you plan to do any attacking).

All in all, there aren’t too terribly many cards that would be good candidates for the “Wurmcoil” slot built around the theme of instants and sorceries. Cards like Arcane Melee are shoo-in bulk rares, but so what? If this is the deck’s theme or one of them, expect a lot of the value to be tied up in a new card—and realize that Legacy could be significantly shaken up by this card, potentially.

The other Izzet-specific ability the wiki article references is “looting,” which is barely worth mentioning. Jace isn’t likely in here and that’s basically the only valuable looter, unless I’m missing something (which I’m almost certain to be).

The only other thing I could see blue and red teaming up to do could have to do with artifacts, and there isn’t much there, either.

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Hi guys! Reprint me!

Without a ton to go on, I think I will use the rest of my word count to talk about good blue and red cards that could fit the theme of some of the things these colors both do well separately, and cards that need a second look before the lists are spoiled.

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Cube has made this a $400 foil and made the non-foil worth having and Conspiracy packs well worth cracking. I was lucky this summer to be in Las Vegas for the Grand Prix and be the beneficiary of a lot of players dusting off boxes of Conspiracy and running drafts. Some drafts I paid into, some I drafted for free and gave back the cards, and all of them I had a blast.

Fayden’s future is pretty uncertain given how tricky he would be to reprint without making him legal in Standard, and while this deck would be a good venue, it doesn’t seem super likely unless every deck is getting a non-commander planeswalker. Kiora, Dack Fayden, Ajani Vengeant, Vraska, and Sorin? It’s possible, but not super likely. Besides, Dack Fayden is only one possibility, and Ral Zarek is quite another and might be a better fit for the deck.

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A lack of urgency on this price makes a reprinting not super likely and bound to be a little bit confusing. I don’t think Dack is a good inclusion and I don’t think Ral Zarek, while more reasonable on the basis of price, is a good fit, either. All in all, I wouldn’t hold my breath for a planeswalker.

While we’re spitballing, what would a new blue-red commander look like? If I had to guess, I would say you get an experience counter for casting three or more spells in a single turn and then for every experience counter you have, your spells cost one colorless mana less to cast. That’s boring, but Izzet tends to be a bit one-dimensional. Popular Commanders in Izzet are Nin, the Pain Artist, Melek, Izzet Paragon, and Tibor and Lumia, or not building Izzet decks when you can just add black and play Nekusar or something.

A lot of people seem to be clamoring for something artifact-related, since blue and red are the two biggest colors for artifacts and there hasn’t been a good artifact commander in those colors. Conceivably, you could accumulate experience counters by casting an artifact that costs five or more and then get a reduction on the casting cost of artifacts, but that seems a little boring, also. I personally would like a commander that got an experience counter if you cast a certain number of instants or sorceries then let you scry every one of your upkeeps equal to the number of experience counters you have, but that seems a little unlikely.

There just isn’t a lot to go on, here. Izzet is a tough color and almost always has help, so this will either be the weakest deck or it will be a cool, synergistic deck with a lot of clutch spells and bulk rares like Arcane Melee and Jace’s Sanctum that will make up the value of the deck with an expensive card sure to impact Legacy.

As far as a few cards I could see occupying the Wurmcoil slot, I don’t actually see any. I feel like the value will be in a new card, so instead, I want to talk about cheaper cards that nonetheless could use a reprinting and would be decent inclusions.

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A year ago, this would have been a totally reasonable inclusion. Could Wizards have slotted this in a long time ago, watched the price grow with trepidation, and thought “Welp, this is going to sell a shitload of copies”? Maybe, but I tend to doubt it. Should this be included in the deck, it would be a weird deck, indeed. Instead, I think there is a card in the same vein that’s more likely in the deck, though an alternative to it exists.

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Huh? Maybe?

It feels like I am grasping at straws. Izzet decks are very cheap to build on the whole, so even if I correctly guess the deck will contain Cloven Casting, so what? A bulk rare stayed a bulk rare and no one made money. The problem with Izzet is that Wizards will either have to reprint a very expensive card to justify the cost of the deck or will have to put something in that’s way off-theme. Some off-theme cards I’d like to see reprinted could be interesting.

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Given the proper outlet, the mana from this card can be a huge advantage. This is a $10 card from a terrible set, will be very hard to reprint in most products given its unique keyword ability, and it does something that’s unfair given the removal of the mana burn rule. This reminds me a lot of Black Market, and I’d like to see both cards reprinted.

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While a lot of the abilities on red and blue creatures are triggered (think Gelectrode or Guttersnipe) or simple tap abilities (Goblin Welder or also Gelectrode), some of them, like Nin, the Pain, Artist could benefit from a reduction in cost.

Izzet Difficult?

This was a frustrating article for me. While I encountered a few cards in the $7 to $12 range, all of them were even easier to rule out than the cards in this article, which all have a pretty tenuous rationale for their inclusion. Imagine which cards I cut!

I really feel like the Wizards team has their work cut out for them with this deck. Could Keranos be included, and would that force them to reprint half of the gods and not the other half? Could Scroll Rack or Omniscience or another ridiculous card be included rather than hoping a Legacy game-changer can take up the value? Why aren’t there any good creatures in Izzet decks?

The alternative explanation is that Izzet is a huge blind spot for me, and I missed something huge, significant, and obvious. I’ll admit to doing twice as much online research as other weeks and feeling like I have half the advice. I don’t know what to do beyond say, “Hey, I imagine a big new card in this deck,” because good Izzet decks are built with cantrips, cost-reducers, and spell-doublers, and all of those cards are super cheap. A commander that does all three will certainly be popular, and a card on Snapcaster Mage’s power level in Legacy will certainly move product. With the popularity of Commander, there is less pressure on Wizards to do this, but I think in order to justify MSRP on an Izzet deck, they’ll need to do something drastic. What will it be? My money’s on a new card rather than a reprinting of something above $15.

In case I did miss something obvious, school me in the comments. Which existing cards do you want to see in an Izzet deck? What did I miss? What would you like to see printed new? How could Izzet use experience counters? Leave it in the comments section. We’ll polish off Boros next week and hopefully be forewarned as spoilers trickle in.

As always, I will be handling spoiler coverage, and with my EDH experience, you can be sure you’ll get analysis from someone who cares about the format. Until next week!

PROTRADER: PT Khans of Tarkir Block Constructed

By: Travis Allen

I’ve never been one for professional sports. I don’t know if it’s the toxic masculinity that I’ve never felt beholden to that is woven into the fabric of the pastimes, or if it’s instead my distaste for the veiled sycophantic jingoism that manifests as obsessive support, emotional and financial, for a team that owes allegiance to nothing more than your tax dollars. Whatever it is, I have a natural aversion to that particular brand of entertainment. I don’t watch ESPN. I don’t check scores. I don’t keep track of who is injured or what trades may happen. I didn’t even understand people’s exhaustion with Draft Kings and FanDuel until I saw ten minutes of a football game at my girlfriend’s parent’s house and was exposed to just how significant their advertising presence was.

LAS VEGAS - MARCH 19: In this handout provided by the Las Vegas News Bureau, the Mirage Resort Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas is shown crowded with basketball fans during NCAA March Madness Tournament March 19, 2010. in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Glenn Pinkerton/Las Vegas News Bureau via Getty Images)

Along with all the other things that I don’t experience related to professional sports is gambling. Of course, none of you reading this have ever gambled on sports games, because unless you live in Nevada or overseas, it would be illegal, so bear with me and just imagine it’s something you’ve done. Not having bet on games before, I’m unfamiliar with the emotional rollercoaster involved in the activity. Of course, I experience it in some capacity. After all, I bought $60 worth of Wingmate Rocs and Dragon Whisperers. While you could argue that speculation is gambling in its own right, it’s not quite the same. My hopes and dreams for Roc don’t live and die on one play of the game; there is no singular pointed moment in time that holds within it financial victory or ruin.

So when we did a fantasy Pro Tour draft this time around and I found myself sweating the outcome of Finkel versus PVDDR, a match that would determine whether I got second place or fifth, it was a novel experience. I found myself unwilling to watch them play, a behavior I know for a fact I’ve wondered aloud at when I’ve seen others not watch an event they’re financially invested in. I just kept working on the newsletter in silence, peeking at Twitter every thirty seconds for updates. When Finkel was finally victorious and I was locked for second place, a thrilling sensation washed over me unlike anything I get when a spec target quintuples overnight. All in all, it was an exciting experience, and it will be made all the more sweeter when I only need to pay four percent of a $400 dinner bill, rather than 14 percent.

Oh, also, Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar happened this weekend. Right. That’s probably what you would prefer to read about.

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Going Mad – Winners and Losers at Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar

By: Derek Madlem

You placed your bets and now the results are in. Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar has come and gone and while we were robbed of the champion we deserved (Finkel), we did at least find out what we already knew: Jeskai and Abzan are STILL good decks, IMAGINE THAT. Let’s take a look at the big winners and losers in this latest iteration of Standard:

WINNER:

Wingmate Roc

Everyone that had the common sense to buy $2.50 Wingmate Rocs, $1 Crackling Dooms, and $1 Mantis Riders. All of these cards were obviously good and the bulk of us just sat around ignoring them at bulk prices. While we were all excited about the “sure thing” Rattleclaw Mystic, many of us skimmed over proven staples.

This is a great lesson in going with your gut, a good card is a good card…most of the time.

LOSER:

Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Sorry Sorin, Solemn Visitor, nobody loves you. Sorin is one of my picks for this spring’s Duel Deck and put up disappointing results at the Pro Tour, with only six copies total appearing in all of the decks that went 7-3 or better in constructed, Sorin just isn’t the powerhouse we hoped for; filling much the same role (and casting cost) as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, Sorin just couldn’t compete in that same space.

LOSER:

Narset

Narset Transcendent appeared as a single copy in a single sideboard of a single deck. If there was any doubt about this “do nothing” planeswalker being hot garbage, that doubt should be squashed now. While most of us had the sense to stay away from this one, I’ve witnessed hopeful speculators ask vendors how many Narsets they had followed by the words, “I’ll take them.” Sorry guys, this one’s not paying off any time soon.

LOSER:

Sarkhan

While we’re on the topic of planeswalkers that people went ham on, we’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker. This is another card I witnessed people buying by the stack, at the promise of future wealth. As it turns out, Sarkhan did see actually see some play in the Jeskai decks. But the reality of this is that Sarkhan showing up as a one-of is not going to be enough to push this guy up in price enough. There’s already the reality that Sarkhan has less than six months to live looming on the horizon and he showed up in one of the most opened sets of all time.

WINNER:

Ojutai's Command

Ojutai’s Command has been on a steady march to major contender since the printing of Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy. While Jace was a great reason to run Ojutai’s Command, the real push came in the form of Brian Kibler Outcast. The ability to “flash in” this 1/1 at the end of your opponent’s turn really pushed the envelope on Ojutai’s Command, making it a staple in pretty much every iteration of Jeskai that we saw this past weekend.

There’s a small army of players that bet big on these guys at $1 or less and now they’re looking like prodigies themselves. The lesson we should learn here is that if a spell is one number off from being really good, something is likely going to be printed to make that number work.

LOSER:

BTL

Bring to Light was fun, but it’s time to move on. Remember those sweet four color Siege Rhino decks? Yeah, real cute guys. As it turns out, in long tournaments stacked with skilled players, you don’t really want to be stretching your mana base too thin trying to be cute. This card is already in a downward spiral, shedding 20% in the last week. Soon enough we should be seeing this in the “premium bulk” pile on the buy mats of the world.

WINNER:

Zurgo

Zurgo Bellstriker is basically at an all-time high now, surpassing his initial sell price of $4. This is another card that savvy buyers picked up on in the $1-2 range and now get to dump. The lesson we should be taking away from this is that people like dumb red decks and dumb red cards, unless you’re…

LOSER:

Dragon Whisperer

Dragon Whisperer is a mythic rare that we’ve all eyed coming into rotation as the heir to the throne of key 2-drop in every red deck, but it’s not. While Dragon Whisperer did show up twice as much as Narset, that number still only totals two. We can all let this one go quietly into the dark at this point, there’s not much hope left.

WINNER:

Abbot of keral keep

Abbot of Keral Keep continues to show up in more and more decks. As it turns out, this card is still really awesome (I told you so) and I expect to see it continue to see action across Standard and Modern for the foreseeable future. Abbot has remained relatively stable around $7 for quite some time now, but we’re not going to see too much more Magic Origins being opened / redeemed in the near future so the supply for this guy is probably a lot smaller than most of us realize. This is a great card to pick up as you can as it’s only a matter of time before the price tag starts to quietly tick upwards 1% at a time.

LOSER:

oblivion sower

Saito bought all of these! OMG! While some people smell conspiracy or market manipulation, the reality here is that people in Japan were buying these cards at a much higher rate than we were. Saito was in town and saw that he could buy piles of these for what amounted to his buylist price, so he did. This is how the global Magic economy works folks.

As far as the Pro Tour went, there isn’t much to be said about Oblivion Sower other than it did show up as a single copy in a few sideboards and as a four-of in a single big dumb ramp deck. While I’m not completely counting this guy out yet as I still have to unlock the Crumble to Dust / Oblivion Sower achievement, this card was not the cornerstone of a top secret Japanese ramp deck for the Pro Tour.

LOSER:

ulamog

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger is in pretty much the same boat as Oblivion Sower except he (she? it?) didn’t show up in any sideboards. While this is good news for the people that want to own Ulamogs, it’s not exciting news for anyone that expected this to be a breakout card or a sweet target to put into play on the cheap with…

LOSER:

See the unwritten

See the Unwritten is a casual card guys, you’re going to have to accept that. Summoning Trap was only played in it’s heyday because you could cast it for free if your opponent countered your Primeval Titan. There was no feeling greater than getting your Titan countered with three Summoning Traps in your hand and just dropping them onto the table with a twisted grin on your face.

If See the Unwritten had been an instant, we’d be having a different conversation all together, but it’s not. See the Unwritten showed up in approximately 0% of the 7-3 or better constructed decks.

WINNER:

dromoka's

In case you missed the memo, Dromoka’s Command was criminally under priced when it bottomed out at $2. We’ve since learned that event decks and clash packs not enough to keep a good card down. With the exception of Silumgar’s Command, this entire cycle has now seen serious constructed play and the flexibility of these cards warrants their inclusion in pretty much any deck that can support the mana requirements. Dromoka’s Command appeared mostly as four-ofs and is going to be vitally useful going forward in the Abzan and Megamorph decks.

WINNER:

Warden of the First

Warden of the First Tree is probably a solid pickup at this point despite being printed in the latest event deck. This small set mythic rare is repping the four-of status and is vital for players looking to apply early pressure. We probably would have seen more of this guy before if Fleecemane Lion didn’t exist, but now that the golden-locked cat is out of the picture, this guy is the premiere badass in the aggressive Abzan builds.

WINNER:

Anafenza

Anafenza, the Foremost is another Abzan all star that put in some work at PTBFZ. Anafenza’s is most powerful against decks featuring Deathmist Raptor or Hangarback Walker because her cursory ability to keep creatures out of your opponents’ graveyards basically shuts off these threats. And if that wasn’t enough, the ability to slow down Dig Through Time and Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is not irrelevant. Combine all of this with a solid body that seems even stronger in a format with weak removal and the ability to pump other creatures on attack and you have yourself a mythic rare powerhouse poised for takeover.

Winner:

Gideon

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar had a big big weekend. Gideon showed up as a four-of in a variety of archetypes ranging from Jeskai Tokens to Abzan to Esper. Gideon is the man of the hour thanks mostly to the lack of reasonable answers to deal with him, Stasis Snare is not an Oblivion Ring and Ruinous Path is not Hero’s Downfall.

Gideon has carved out a niche as the apex predator of this format and that’s not going to change until we get more cards into the format. If any card is poised to hold it’s price in spite of the massive amounts of downward pressure we’re seeing on BFZ cards, it’s Gideon. We can learn a lot about contextual value from Gideon because it’s likely this card would make a much smaller impact in past formats than it has in this environment, he’s better because so much else is just worse.

LOSER:

Snapcaster Mage

My condolences to anyone that’s forced to play with this hideous iteration of Snapcaster Mage. This is the promo you get for attending the RPTQs this year and it reeks of leftover art from another commission.

Some of you have said that you actually like this art, and I’m here to tell you that you’re wrong. This art is garbage.

But art is subjective.

No, it’s not. Here’s a little experiment you can try at home. Take any red or blue instant and put this art on the card and see if makes sense. SPOILER ALERT: it does. You know why? Because this is generic card art, it wasn’t commissioned to be a Snapcaster Mage…it was commissioned to be whatever random spell they hadn’t made yet.


 

Grinder Finance – The Price of Standard is Too Damn High

price of std

I’ve seen more than one person make this exclamation (not necessarily in those words, but the same sentiment).  Standard prices are out of control!  The price of 7 of the decks in the top 8 of the Pro Tour are between $675 and $800.  The one outlier is the “cheaper” atarka red deck played by Hall of Famer, Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa,  which still has a price tag of $375.  What changed?  Why is everything so expensive?

Mana

Most of the price of standard decks right now is the mana.  The deck that won Pro Tour Magic Origins had a simple mana base, 21 mountains.  When calculating the cost of a deck you can usually leave the basic lands off since they’re essentially free.  What does PV’s deck play? Only 9 of his 21 lands are basic lands.  The other 12 are rare lands, 10 of which are fetch lands.  With the 10 fetchlands being about $20 each on average and 2 battle lands at $7 each, we add $214 to the total cost of the deck before there are any spells in it!  This is obviously a pretty large barrier to entry but there is some icing on the cake.  You will be owning 10 of the best lands ever printed.  There is some value in knowing the fact that your Standard mana base won’t become worth a handful of nickels in the coming months.  Temples from Theros block are worth between $1 and $4 each now, a far cry from the $7-13 they had at their peak of popularity.  What does this mean for the future of fetch lands? It’s hard to predict.  Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged are scheduled to rotate out in April with the entrance of the unannounced block code named “Tears”.  Normally I would say that bodes well as their rotation will help ease some of the demand but that is only a few months before the start of Modern PPTQ season.  According to the 2016 PPTQ announcement, Modern PPTQ season starts July 16th (in conjuction with the release of the 2nd set of “Tears” block).  Will people sell their fetch lands only to have to rebuy them in 3 months?  If they do, does the price even budge or are vendors happy to hold them for 10-12 weeks?  There are too many questions that won’t be answered in this first rotation.

Mythics + Rares

Here’s a break down of Paulo’s deck by rarity:

  • Mythics: 3
  • Rares: 24 (12 lands)
  • Uncommons: 23
  • Commons: 16
  • Basic Land: 9

36% of this deck is Rare or Mythics and the other 64% is commons and uncommons.  Let’s compare that to Pro Tour Magic Origins winning list by Joel Larsson.

  • Mythics: 2
  • Rares: 21 ( 0 lands)
  • Uncommons: 26
  • Commons: 5
  • Basic Land: 21

This list is made up of 31% Rares and Mythics and 69% is commons and uncommons.  Even with less commons in this deck, at the time of the Pro Tour it was over $100 less.  What changed?  Rares that are eternal playable hold much higher values.  A lot of the creatures overlap in these lists (Zurgo, Swiftspear, Abbot of Keral Keep, and Lightning Berserker are in both lists), but the inclusion of eternal playable cards pushes it over the edge.  Atarka’s Command is a massive $16 now and Non-blue fetch lands average $15-20 each. That’s eternally playable rares!

Want to see what exacerbates this problem? Let’s break down Ryoichi Tamada’s deck from the Top 8.

 

  • Mythics: 10
  • Rares:  27 ( 17 lands)
  • Uncommons: 21
  • Commons: 12
  • Basic Land: 5

 

His deck is made up of 49% rares and 51% non-rares.  The increased prevalence of Mythic rares that are played as 4-ofs increases demand and cost.  So despite Tamada not taking advantage of some more ambitious Jeskai Black mana bases his deck is just blowing away pre-rotation standard decks.  But it can’t be the rare and mythic count that is the entire reason that decks are so expensive, right?

Planeswalkers

gideon

I so solemnly swear that the Champion of Justice was a mistake.  Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is the real deal.  With 5 decks playing 4 copies it seems his price tag will only continue to climb as the week goes on.  He bears a striking resemblance to another white walker from a year ago.

elspeth suns champion

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion was a dominant force during her stay in Standard and continues to define how good a 6 mana Planeswalker can be.  At the height of her popularity she was over $45 and I don’t expect Gideon to stay any lower.  She saw a decline with the dip ended at the end of December (remember this article: Grinder Finance – Winter is Coming ) and I expect Gideon to bottom out then as well.  What luckily kept Elspeth’s price in check toward the end of her life was the Elspeth vs Kiora Duel Deck.  Gideon probably won’t be in the next one (as it will likely feature 2 Planeswalkers from Khans of Tarkir block), I expect to see him in the following year’s deck.  What can we do now?  Not really a whole lot.  Hopefully people really like more cards from Battle for Zendikar and a second wave of box opening happens.  Unfortunately it seems like most of the innovation started in the SCG circuit and there’s not much innovation left for Standard at the moment.

 

jace

While Gideon looks like he’s giving a heartfelt apology, Jace’s smirk implies something else.  Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy is the product of a whirlwind of beat beats to leave him the most expensive card in Standard in years!

Problems:

  • He’s from a Core set which are traditionally under purchased
  • He’s played as 4 copies
  • He’s played in eternal formats
  • Modern Masters 2015 was released a few months before his set

The end result is not enough people had money to buy Magic Origins product and Jace and Hangarback Walker continue to prop up the set from the bulk bins.  Given the fact that Mark Rosewater has stated the extra costs associated with printing double-faced cards means they are unlikely in supplementary products, I doubt Jace sees any real reprieve from this price point.  I expect Jace to be $100 at Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch unless something odd like a Standard banning happens.

nissa ww

This is not the first time a core set Planeswalker has held an unreasonably high price.  Nissa, despite being mostly a sideboard card that is played 1-2 copies was a solid $20-40 card for most of her time in Standard.  Jace being playable outside of Standard means we will likely not see any price drops.

Where do we go from here?

Well, you can play Atarka Red on a budget but it’s unlikely we will see any significant decreases in the price of Standard decks while 8-12 fetch land mana bases are popular.  The icing on the cake is a lot of this money is going toward cards that don’t immediately plummet in value after rotation.

Closing Thoughts

regionalptq_promo_2016

Snapcaster Mage was announced as a the RPTQ promo which means basically nothing will happen to it’s price.  It’s new art (which has been receiving mostly negative feedback) was expected. They have not reprinted any Invitational cards without new art except for time shifted cards (Avalanche Riders and Shadowmage Infiltrator). I expect non-foil copies to only quiver for a moment and foil copies to not budge.  Your Snapcaster Mages will be safe for another year.

li53_questionMark

Speaking of promos, why do we still not know the GP promo for next year?   I want to remain optimistic but  I feel like there is some weird reason we don’t know it yet.  Maybe there won’t be one?  I don’t know for sure.

PTKhans

Don’t have your Khans of Tarkir fetch lands yet?  What are you waiting for?  I don’t expect to see any drop in price when they rotate in April.

Currently played KTK cards are on the rise.  I would look to move anything you’re not planning to use in the next few months now.  Notable increases to the price of Wingmate Roc, Crackling Doom, and Mantis Rider.

Next week I’m planning an article to maximize your Pucatrading.  If you have any questions or concerns please leave them in the comments below or tweet at me @Phrost_ !

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