Going Mad – Welcome to the Rodeo

October 6, 2015 Derek Madlem 2 Comments

By: Derek Madlem

The Battle for Zendikar is under way, those of you who’ve peaked the fat pack insert already know the outcome, but for the rest of us…we have other concerns.

Expeditions

In case you missed all the Magic financiers jumping from buildings doing their best impression of a 1929 stock broker, Expeditions prices are basically in free fall. We all thought for sure these would be the coolest thing since sliced bread, and they still might be, but there are a lot of snakes that bit off too much and had to regurgitate. What the hell am I talking about?

So picture a snake. This snake normally goes around eating mice and other small vermin. One day this snake comes across your Aunt Marigold’s pet chihuahua “Chuckles” and just can’t help himself. Chuckles is quickly choked out and the snake dislocates it’s jaw to fit that boney little head into its mouth. The snake quickly realizes that it is left in a vulnerable state so it has to just regurgitate it and go back to eating mice and chipmunks.

So what the hell am I talking about? I’m talking about the army of armchair vendors that all decided to cash in on Battle for Zendikar. These guys (and presumably some gals too) preordered BFZ by the case with the prospect of opening infinite moneys and realized once they had a $600-2000 hole in their savings account, they had to recoup some of that money IMMEDIATELY.

So began the race to the bottom. These snakes had a big meal and they just can’t sit around waiting for it to digest to get the most out of Expeditions, so they’re firesaling these cards to recoup as much of their “investment” as they can. Some people just don’t have the nerve to ride it out. Here’s where we’re at now:

Cinder Glade – $40
Smoldering Marsh – $44
Canopy Vista – $47
Sunken Hollow – $50
Prairie Stream – $55
Temple Garden – $65
Blood Crypt – $75
Godless Shrine – $78
Overgrown Tomb – $80
Sacred Foundry – $80
Watery Grave – $85
Stomping Ground – $85
Breeding Pool – $90
Hallowed Fountain – $100
Marsh Flats – $110
Wooded Foothills – $115
Windswept Heath – $120
Steam Vents – $130
Bloodstained Mire – $130
Arid Mesa – $135
Verdant Catacombs – $160
Flooded Strand – $240
Polluted Delta – $270
Misty Rainforest – $270
Scalding Tarn – $285

Average: $117.56

In just one short week, Expeditions lands have shed 30% of their value, and in all likelihood this number is probably even lower by the time this article is published. So what about the rest of the set? Are those cards tanking as well?

Results

Obviously the format is still in flux, but the first SCG Open is in the books and the initial posturing has begun. In what appears to be some kind of cosmic irony, Burn took down the tournament despite losing Lightning Strike and Stoke the Flames. What hot BFZ rares and mythics made the cut? A paltry two copies of Cinder Glade.

Now’s the part where I eat crow. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar showed up big this weekend with 24 copies in the top 16. Gideon appears to be the real deal. So – I was wrong. Does this mean that I now think Gideon has a chance of retaining his $40 price tag? Not in the slightest. If you aren’t intending to use Gideon in the comings weeks, it’s probably a good idea to ship ’em.

In other Planeswalker news, there were 0 main deck copies of Ob Nixilis or Kiora in the top 16 this weekend. Which either means these are not cards that anybody is excited about, or they’re all saving them for their super secret Pro Tour brews. I know where I’d place my bets.

The big story of the weekend is manabases. The bulk of the BFZ cards showing up among the top finishers are dual lands of some sort and this little gem. As it turns out, there only thing better than four copies of Siege Rhino is eight copies of Siege Rhino. The exceptional mana available to deck builders in this format allowed some pretty sweet four and five color builds of traditional archetypes. Not only did we get a sweet five color Abzan toolbox deck courtesy of Gerry Thompson, we also get hot tech splashes:

Jeskai splashing black for Crackling Doom and Kolghan’s Command? Sure, why not! Why not throw a Butcher of Malakir in the mix? Going forward, this opens the dance floor to basically any powerful card, regardless of whether or not it’s in the “right” colors.

Other cards that made modest appearances this weekend include:
Drana, Liberator of Malakir
Dragonmaster Outcast
Ruinous Path
Brutal Expulsion
Fathom Feeder
Radiant Flames

None of these seem like great investment targets.

Khans of Tarkir – Fate Reforged

Hey guys, where’s the big spikes? I know we’re not to the Pro Tour yet so it might be too early to declare victory but there’s a distinct lack of $5 Rattleclaw Mystics, $10 Siege Rhinos, $25 Sarkhan Dragonspeakers, and $15 Wingmate Rocs. While it may be more meta related than rotation related, I’m significantly less worried about that guy printing out my terrible article and putting it on every table at the next Grand Prix so that everyone knows what a ****ing idiot I am.

If you check out the daily and weekly movers you’ll see a spattering of Khans/Fate cards on the winners lists. Obviously fetch lands are sweeter than ever with the tango lands, but there is one sweet Mythic showing up in force that’s seeing some growth:

Anafenza has long been one of my favorite picks in Khans of Tarkir; admittedly, I was a much bigger fan when Birthing Pod mirrors were still a thing. Anafenza shuts off a lot of the delve shenanigans we’ve grown accustomed to seeing, stops Deathmist Raptors or Den Protector loops, and even enables Eldrazi processors…if that ever becomes a thing. So far Anafenza is not a universal inclusion in the Abzan aggro decks, but as the meta shakes out, there’s a pretty good chance she finds a place.

The other big winner from Khans of Tarkir appears to be Hardened Scales…wut? Expect this card to go full Obelisk of Urd, fluctuating back and forth between $1 and $5 independent of reason.

Alternate Timelines

In case you didn’t get the memo: Atarka’s Command is not a $4 card. The ability to crank out four landfall triggers in a single turn is more than enough to make this the center piece in a few glass cannon aggro decks. Combine Atarka’s Command with Scythe Leopard, Makindi Sliderunner, and Monastery Swiftspear and you’re looking at massive amounts of damage. Worst case scenario, this becomes the premiere burn spell of the format, typically adding 5+ damage every time it’s cast.

This card has already been showing up in Modern Burn decks, the cat should be fully out of the bag on this one.

If there was any doubt, it should be long gone by now. Den Protector is a format defining staple. Looping Den Protectors is often going to be more than enough to wear down control decks and the ability to walk past Thopter tokens or Gideon’s sidekicks is going to prove extremely valuable in the coming year. Den Protector is currently hovering around $10 and I can easily see this doing a Courser of Kruphix impression, especially during the next six months as we continue to have access to fetch lands – this will be easily splashable in any color deck.

The $80 Gorilla

There’s an $80 Gorilla in the format and his name is Jace. It turns out that the “next Jace” is…well…Jace again. A number of people asked me this weekend whether or not this price is real and whether or not it can stick and I’m still a little amazed that the answer is: yes.

With Battle for Zendikar hitting the streets people are just done with Magic Origins. Normally an $80 card would be enough to entice people to go back and play the lottery game but there’s bigger fish to catch in the form of Expeditions – and they’re a lot shinier as well.

Jace has a lot going for him financially, he’s universally played as a four-of and he’s a Mythic rare from a summer core set that was sandwiched between two of the biggest releases in years: Modern Masters 2015 and Battle for Zendikar. Magic Origins was a pretty solid core set all in all, but just didn’t stand much of a chance to sell that well with people’s wallets hurting after MM2 and people squirreling away money for BFZ.

Beyond the paltry amount of this product opened, there is the reality that Jace is showing up in every format – even Vintage. While it might feel like it’s too late to buy in on Jace at this point, it felt the same way at $20, $30, and $40…yet here we are, staring down the $80 Gorilla in the room. With the likelihood of Magic Origins packs being ripped open in mass quantities now, Jace is likely to climb higher still.

Every plateau in Jace’s price has felt like it couldn’t go higher, but at this point I’m not seeing any compelling reasons for it to go lower outside of a clash pack or event deck reprint, which is unlikely due to him being a double faced card.

Fat Stacks & Fat Packs

There’s a gold rush at your local big box retailer: people are scouring the wilds for BFZ Fat Packs like they’re going out of style. The big two retailers were offering these at a $60 preorder price and we all scoffed, then we found out that Fat Packs are, and have always been, a limited print run; this is just the first time that limit has mattered. Fat Packs are generally part of the “package” the distributors jam down local game stores’ throats along with all those intro packs you see on clearance two weeks after release.

This might be the first time in a long time that snatching up a pile of Fat Packs is a solid investment. Legends of double Expeditions Fat Packs coupled with a stack of full art lands in every box will make these a sought after item for years to come. So grab them if you still can, while it might seem like you missed your chance, there are numerous cases where these things are sitting in the back room waiting for Magic Origins Fat Packs to sell through on the shelf.

Holding Pattern

The Pro Tour is just a few weeks away and most of the rare and Mythic prices will stay relatively inflated until then, but we’re quickly realizing that none of the new duals are four-ofs thanks to fetch lands and there’s not a lot else (yet) to get excited about in the set so prices are going to fall.

Danny Brown, ProTrader

PROTRADER: Looking Back While Others Look Forward

October 6, 2015 Danny Brown 2 Comments

The release has happened. Battle for Zendikar is legal in Standard. We’ll be seeing the earliest results for the new format this weekend, which will increase the prices on a few cards. Then the Pro Tour will cause some major swings, and Khans of Tarkir will be at its highest price index since its release—the perfect time to sell.

It’s not too late to pick up cards from Khans block if you haven’t fully stocked your speculation coffers yet. The last several months here at MTGPrice, however, have seen a plethora of articles dedicated to Khans of Tarkir block. Check out the blog archives for a ton of opinions and thousands of words.

I want to look even further back today. Nobody cares at all about Theros block right now, or M15 for that matter, and that’s exactly why those sets are perfect places to look for cards to scoop.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – This Week in Magic: The Gathering

October 5, 2015 Jim Casale 6 Comments

It’s the week before the Pro Tour and all through the Internet, not a pro player was stirring, not even Tomoharu Saito. After a grueling tournament, two decks that only feature two colors battled it out in the finals of the Star City Games open in Indianapolis. This week we won’t be teaching any lessons. I’m going to go through the news with you.

The Great Fatpack Gouging of 2015

People are up in arms and truly enraged that stores would charge more than MSRP for anything. The Professor (content producer under the Tolarian Community College youtube channel), had some especially fierce criticism for stores that chose to raise their prices to above MSRP.

I respect him a great deal for his huge contributions to the community (seriously if you haven’t checked out his videos I highly recommend them), but I don’t think he, like many people, have considered all of the options. Most stores sell almost every Magic sealed product for under MSRP. The exception is usually with limited print run stuff like From the Vault products and Modern Masters. The only reason to raise prices is because you will sell out of all your product. Large online stores can’t afford to be out of anything. If a customer comes to your website expecting to be able to buy a product and you can’t provide that product, they will buy from competitors. If that competitor has products in stock that you do not multiple times, you will lose that customer. What this means is that prices have to rise to curb demand. Stores are still in the business of selling product but the reality is they need to keep something in stock. You have the option of going to Walmart or Target and trying your luck at picking up a Fat pack but that’s not an option for everyone and the convenience of an online order is worth the $10 to some people.

The other unfortunate problem with selling them at MSRP when in high demand is that people will buy them solely for the purpose of reselling them on auction sites like EBay. At this point the card store doesn’t get the extra money and it’s pocketed by people who don’t help grow the game. I’d rather a store get the money if people are going to pay that much.

100 jace — Source: http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/creativity/artwork/340434-in-jace-we-trust

The $100 Man

Saturday afternoon I looked at TCGPlayer and noticed there were only 29 total listings for Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy. Granted there is not usually much supply added on the weekends (stores generally don’t ship/list on weekends because they’re off), it was still unusual to see such low stock. Ten hours later there were three non-foil copies listed. While I don’t think this was a targeted buyout (because there weren’t a ton of copies listed by a single seller), it is indicative of future growth.

He’s pretty much been on a steady rise since he came out. The small divets in his price are mostly due to small supply gluts.

Compared to Liliana, Heretical Healer (the early frontrunner for best walker), Jace seems invincible. Liliana has seen some minor success and continues to fall. Even Nissa — who sees almost as much play as Jace in Standard — has been flat. Why is this?

Well, Jace is a multi-format all-star blue spell that costs two mana. While being a good blue spell in Standard doesn’t always equate into a hit, it almost certainly does in Modern and Legacy (more blue-friendly formats). Jace passes early tests for mana cost and raw card power and continues to over perform in those formats. This card will likely mimic Liliana of the Veil’s pricing for the near future as it will be the most popular Planeswalker in Modern.

Where does he go from here? There’s pretty much nowhere to go but up. Even though we have now seen Mythic rares in Event Decks, it is extremely unlikely we will see this Jace in the near future. The fact that Jace is a flip card makes him cost so much more money to produce so his chance of being in a sealed product are very low.

Starcity Games Open in Indianapolis

I’ll assumed you’ve seen who won but, if not, congratulations to Brian Demars for his win including several turn 4 blow outs. People really like to underestimate the power of the red deck in week 1 and they paid the price. No, not the Ultimate Price, which would have been spectacular versus Demars.

Ultimately it looks like the price will be paid to play these super multi-colored decks. I don’t know if Standard will be as expensive as the all Mythic rare decks from the Doran deck days, but it’s showing here how much the price of Khans of Tarkir fetch lands is having on deck prices. As you can see here, the mostly mono-red deck still plays 10 fetch lands in it’s 21 land mana base. With the rotation of temples, people have to resort more to fetch / battle mana bases which will put more strain on already expensive Khans fetch lands.

Trading Up

Pucatrade continues to be my #1 way to move cards. If you haven’t signed up already, you can use my referral link here. It has some useful tools for pruning your collection and predicting the future.

As of my writing, these are the top traded cards in the last 7 days. It’s pretty clear people want to finish their mana bases asap and I don’t blame them. But does that mean that these are the most popular cards?

With some searching and filter magic you can see the most requested cards are actually basic lands. Unfortunately these filters are only available to Uncommon tier of support. From this we can see there is a large discrepancy in the number of “wants” vs the number of “haves.” Generally when the “Wants” exceed the “Haves” it means that people value the card more than the currently listed Pucatrade price. From this we can determine either the card is over valued by players or it is poised to go up. While I don’t believe this will last long with these basic lands, it is an easy avenue to move large numbers of lands that will be worth a lot less in the coming months.

The Final Act

In closing, this week has been hectic and we will see more shifts as the ebb and flow of the Pro Tour. Will another red aggressive deck win it? Will a Dragonlord spread it’s wings over the Pro Tour? Will See the Unwritten break Ulamog out of his shell?

Rhinosinspace — Credit to this goes to Ty Hill

Or will Siege Rhino win another one? We’ll find out soon and hopefully have some great things to talk about.

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: A Cautious Reaction to SCG Indy

October 5, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 13 Comments

I began my Sunday morning the same way I always embrace the day – well, at least from an MTG finance standpoint. I suppose technically Monday is fairly unique in absolute, as I have the day off and I need to come up with an article topic.

This week I figured there’d be some interesting movers and shakers from the SCG Indianapolis Open worth diving into. It’s a brand new Standard format, and cards are bound to break out right? Surely there will be some key speculation targets based on Saturday’s results?

Honestly, I’m not so sure. While I’ll be first to admit I watched virtually zero coverage of the event yesterday (it was my wedding anniversary and so MTG time was understandably scarce) I did manage to catch up with what happened fairly quickly. And with this limited information, I don’t see anything to get very excited about. That, combined with the fact that Battle for Zendikar cards still remain one of the worst investments for anything behind a 2 week time horizon, and I am faced with some fairly limited options.

Allow me to explain a bit further, and then hopefully provide some constructive ideas that are worth considering.

Saturday Movers – Non Battle for Zendikar

Expecting to read up on the hottest strategies of the weekend, I started off at Star City’s website to read Saturday’s recap. Unfortunately, the site didn’t have much to offer in terms of what strategies were most successful.

“Day 1 of the #SCGINDY Standard Open is in the books and one thing is clear: you can play anything you want in Battle for Zendikar Standard!”

No leads here – and in fact, the more diverse the format is going to be, the less likely certain cards will be able to stand out. Take Saturday’s top winner (according to mtgstocks.com/interests) for example: Atarka’s Command.

Chart from mtgstocks.com due to recency of data.

The green/red instant is pretty much sold out across the internet thanks to a strong showing on camera during day one of the open. I can certainly get behind this card’s strength and utility in new Standard. But $17 guys? For a multi-colored rare? How often do we have a multi-colored rare sustain a $17 price tag in Standard? Not many come to mind from the past couple years, and I don’t think this card necessarily merits the price either.

I can’t get behind the magnitude of this move, and I can only advise to sell immediately into this spike. I checked top vendors and none have moved their buy prices just yet – I suspect a small bump, but not a 2x increase. In other words, I don’t think vendors going to chase this card this high and I recommend you don’t either. I missed this train and I’m not going to try and chase it down. Let’s move to the next one.

Things only become more perplexing when I look at the next top Standard “interest” on mtgstocks.com.

A $64 Planeswalker in Standard is not brand new, but it sure is rare. I believe Liliana of the Veil notched that honor only briefly while in Standard, and of course everyone knows the story of Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

So is Vryn’s Prodigy the next Jace 2.0? It certainly has some commonalities to the iconic Planeswalker. Most obviously, it’s Jace. It’s Jace that costs two mana, can flip easily, starts with five loyalty, can protect itself, can give you card advantage, and can help you win the game rapidly with his ultimate ability. Additionally, Vryn’s Prodigy was printed in what probably amounted to an under-appreciated and under-opened set. Fewer copies of this mythic exist than mythics from, say Dragons of Tarkir or possibly even Fate Reforged.

Net, the story matches up fairly well and naysayers (including myself up until recently) need to respect this card. Does that mean we go after copies in the $60 price range? Honestly, this is a difficult call. If he does have the appeal of Jace 2.0, we know his price ceiling is in the $100 range. But even if the card does retail for $100, you’re looking at selling copies for $90 on TCG Player, netting you closer to $80 after fees and shipping. Risking $60+ to make $80 at most is not the most attractive risk/reward equation. And if Vryn’s Prodigy comes short of my ceiling and stops around $75, you’ll be lucky to profit on copies you buy today. I’m going to sit on the sidelines for now – I may regret this decision later, but I would rather put my speculation funds to work in an asset with better risk/reward prospects. But as events unfold, it would appear the time to buy copies for use in Standard may be “right now”.

Beyond these top movers, I hear Hangarback Walker is still relevant, various Dragonlords saw play, and we haven’t seen the last of Siege Rhinos or Mantis Riders. All of these creatures are thus far still relevant in Standard post-rotation, and therefore they all remain attractive cards to keep an eye on. I would prefer cards from Origins or Dragons of Tarkir since they were opened up less and don’t have Fetch Lands to compete with for value. That being said Hangarback Walker has likely already peaked, while Mantis Rider remains attractive at a buck and change. Though the Dragonlords may be the most exciting targets – they’re mythic rares from Dragons of Tarkir selling at reasonable prices. If they have a large impact in new Standard, they are well-positioned to double in value.

If the Standard format truly is slowing down as many expect with Battle for Zendikar, then these are bound to see increased play.

What About Battle for Zendikar Movers?

Nope. Don’t do it. People chasing Bring to Light last weekend are not going to make much on the card unless it makes a huge splash at the Pro Tour – and even then, they have to sell the card immediately. Don’t get me wrong, the card is powerful and cool. I really hope it does well in Standard. But it’s already up over $6, and as a rare in Battle for Zendikar I just can’t see this card maintaining this price tag. Again I look to Siege Rhino for comparison – if Siege Rhino can only be worth $3 there’s no way Bring to Light is a $6 card in one month unless it is the go-to strategy for Standard. Can money be made on the card in the short term? Perhaps, if it breaks out at the Pro Tour and you sell right away. But understand that this has to be your strategy if you hope to profit on Bring to Light.

It’s encouraging to see Oblivion Sower stabilize in price after making waves last weekend, but being in the Duel Deck sure puts a damper on the card’s value. Radiant Flames also saw play and an ensuing bounce, though I’m not sure what upside remains. Often these type of cards sell for in the $3-$5 price range, and applying the Expedition tax yields a target price in line with where the card is currently trading.

In short, I couldn’t get particularly excited about any Battle for Zendikar cards heading into this weekend and that hasn’t changed. It’s refreshing to see the newest set on camera, but there’s just so much risk from excess supply going forward. If you hope to profit on cards from the latest set, make sure you have an exit strategy related to any possible Pro Tour hype spike. That will be your best bet.

One Last Caution

We’ve been here many times before – certain cards make a splash during the first Star City Games open a new set is Standard legal. Certain cards appear to be the break-outs, only to remain absent in all subsequent events. Being such a young format, we cannot place all of our bets based on this weekend’s results. They’re better than nothing, perhaps, and we can glean certain ideas from them. But the Pro Tour is where the real movement takes place.

With this in mind, I’m going to keep most of my funds on the sideline. For one, I’m not a huge Standard speculator as it is. But more significantly, I didn’t see enough compelling data on Saturday to indicate that a given strategy is definitely here for the long haul. Rotation brings major change, and large format diversity only tells me things haven’t settled in place yet.

If I had to place bets, I would consider Dragonlords as prime targets. They are mythic rares from a less opened set with real potential in a slower format. If you want to make money on Battle for Zendikar, these next two weeks will be your window to do so. But such an endeavor comes with sizable risk, as you need to place correct bets on which cards break out at the Pro Tour. I may dabble here and there, but most likely I’ll watch this rodeo from the sidelines – it doesn’t fit my risk/reward equation well enough.

I wish everyone the best of luck as they place their bets these next couple weeks. I’ll be sure to weigh in on various ideas in the forums where I can, but understand that I remain largely risk-averse when it comes to Standard. I still maintain there are much safer plays out there with comparable upside, albeit over a longer time period. Modern Masters 2015 cards, for example, continue to reach all-time lows – eventually these will be attractive pick-ups, and moving hot Standard cards into staples like Cryptic Command or Mox Opal could be a very sound strategy.

Also don’t forget to pick up the Theros block cards you’re after these next couple months as they tank on their rotation (interestingly, Keranos, God of Storms has already bounced off its lows from a couple months ago).

With Standard on the forefront of everyone’s minds, just don’t lose sight of other worthy pickups. Some of the most ignored cards now could become some of the most desirable six months from now. I’d rather remain ahead of the curve, and if I couldn’t do so with something like Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy then I will remain forward-looking and identify the next opportunity. It may be some Pro Tour breakout in the near term, but always think one step ahead and you’ll always have ample opportunities for profit.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

It’s worth noting that eternal all-star Thoughtseize has sold off a little bit on its departure from Standard. Granted it’s still $21.15 at Star City Games, but they have plenty of stock and I believe we’ll see a dip below $20 before the card finds price support going forward.
Here’s a card I don’t hear about all that often: Nirkana Revenant. According to mtgstocks.com, the black creature just hit a new all-time high. Star City Games has just 2 near mint copies in stock at $16.79. With no reprint on the horizon, she’s only going to continue her gradual climb upward.
If I had to make my guess, there’s some Old School driven interest in Stasis. Even if I’m wrong, the card is surprisingly quite low in stock at Star City Games despite its many printings. They are completely sold out of copies from Revised and Fourth Edition. Beyond those sets they have just a couple across Fifth Edition, Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited. And Unlimited copies are hitting all time highs recently, selling at $11.99 at SCG. That’s quite high for a rare that sees no play in most other formats!

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