PROTRADER: Battle for the Future of Zendikar

I’m not 100-percent convinced that time is actually linear. Take, for example, today: October 1. Today is quite possibly going to be one of the longest days of our lives, and that’s because tomorrow is the release of Battle for Zendikar1. I want to open packs so badly!

I know a lot of the finance community likes to say that opening packs is a sucker’s game and that it’s better to wait and snipe cheap singles (and everyone who says that is right), but there is an electricity in the air on set release day and I absolutely love it.

Also, I’ve noticed that it rains on almost every release day that I can remember for the past several years (not that rain in Florida is that uncommon), but it’s still something that I always notice.

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expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Awesome! Expedition! Now What?

By: Cliff Daigle

My second opponent at the prerelease last weekend (we both lost in the first round) said to me, “It doesn’t matter if I win a few packs, because I already won!” and then he showed me the Steam Vents he’d opened.

After the match, he asked me if I wanted to buy the Expeditions land off of him. I declined, and I said to him, “I think the price is going to come down in a few weeks.”

He said, “Maybe, but I don’t know what to do with it.”

Perhaps this is you. You opened an Expeditions land and now you’re asking, “Now what?”

Well, I’m here to walk you through your choices. I am not a professional seller, I am not affiliated with any store, and my views reflect only my experiences.

Option #1: Keep it!

This is the most straightforward of your choices. Pick a deck, or choose a binder, and leave it there. Maybe you keep it in the back page of your binder just to show off, maybe you add it to a Commander deck, but whatever your preference is, the card is in your possession.

This is also the choice that will probably give you the best return on the value. If you leave it in there for a year, it’s going to be worth more than it is now.

Would I do it: Maybe. I have one all-foil Commander deck, and it doesn’t have a Scalding Tarn or Polluted Delta…but those are among the most expensive cards from Expeditions. If I opened one of those…yeah, I’d keep it.

 

Option #2: Trade it!

This sounds like an appealing idea to a lot of people, to give up this one single card and get so much in return! I could easily see someone emptying out their binder in order to get their hands on the Expeditions land they want so very badly, not least because you don’t often find people with high-end cards for trade.

It’s worth saying that if you’re going to trade this, be aggressive in what you’re asking for, especially if you’re trading a fetch land or shock land. While it seems these aren’t as super-rare as originally anticipated, they are still pretty hard to find and you shouldn’t be shy if you’re going to part with yours. Grab everything of theirs you want, negotiate a little, and if they don’t want to trade the things you want, start to walk away. Most of the time, they will come around.

If there’s no trading partner available at your store, there’s always online trading. Deckbox is my preferred method, but if you are just starting you’ll be asked to send your cards first and I know that can be intimidating at the beginning, especially if you’re trying to start with a card worth more than $100.

Trading the card on PucaTrade is a strong option. This is the way to get all the points you’ll need for a while, or jump you up to the big cards you desire. Think of it as getting 100% of the card’s value in store credit.

Would I do it: Yes. I have never been a heavy PucaTrade user, mainly because I don’t have a lot of time to watch and jump in when someone wants a card I have. I would be content to gain a stack of PucaPoints or spend a couple of days haggling on Deckbox until I got exactly what I wanted.

 

Option #3: Sell it!

There’s a simplicity in selling your Expeditions land to whichever online card shop you like, because you’ll get the cash or credit right away. No haggling, no discussion, just click, pack, send. If you want cash this may or may not be the best option, since right now lots of stores have lots of prices set up. I would expect that the prices will stabilize this week as stores begin opening their product.

As ever, though, doing the simple thing is going to cost you some. Typically, stores will give you about half the retail price of a card in cash. Most big stores will then add a percentage to it and give you more in store credit, to avoid paying cash.

If you’re not used to dealing with expensive cards or selling things yourself, there’s an ease and a comfort in dealing with the store of your choice. Just understand that there’s a real cost.

Selling the card via Facebook, Twitter, or other social media is an option, but carries its own set of risks.

eBay might be the best option if you want to convert your card to cash. There will be fees from eBay and from PayPal, and so you should expect to pay 10-20% of the final sale value. If you’ve sold things on eBay before, you don’t need me to tell you about it. If you haven’t, understand that eBay almost always sides with the buyer in disputes, so there’s always the chance you could get burned as the seller if you’re unfamiliar with the process. Other buyers will shy away from someone with low feedback.

It’s my understanding that TCGPlayer isn’t that much better than eBay when it comes to small amounts of cards, but I’ve never sold there and I’ll let people share their experiences in the comments.

Would I do it: Probably not. Turning a card into cash usually means that I’ll spend it on other things that my family needs. Plus, I don’t like losing the percentages of a sale, so I’d stick with trading.

Let’s use an example: Arid Mesa.

Here at MTGPrice, it’s listed at $150, because that’s about what it’s going for on eBay. Card shops aren’t allowed to sell them until today and so there’s a lot of volatility.

Looking at the sold items, that seems like a good average. There’s been some lower offers accepted, some bids aren’t too much above or below that number. Remember, though, that you’d be looking at about $20-$25 in fees.

TCGPlayer has these in that same range, about $165. Notable that their data shows these as pre-selling for more than $200 earlier this week! As of this writing, though, the lowest price on a NM copy is $145, and with the downward trend, you could probably undersell that too.

Selling to stores appears to be an even worse play, with buylists not even breaking $100, and most between $80-$90. Even with store credit, you’d be hard-pressed to break $120 at a store.

PucaTrade is by far the most profitable option. You’d get 17150 points, the equivalent of $171.50 worth of cards. Puca is a surprisingly good place to get high-end cards, and you’d be well on your way.

I’m putting this up for people that aren’t sure what to do with their one Expeditions card, especially if you have no interest in trying to get a full playset. I welcome discussion about the best way to move one of these, along with your experiences.


 

Specsire of Ulamog

Yawn.

Man, I haven’t been this apathetic about Magic in a while. Don’t get me wrong, I still love it. Magic: The Gathering is my life, and I don’t think I could ever quit the game barring some unforeseen life circumstances that force my hand.

But man, I’m just so bored of this set already. I eventually need foil copies of Retreat to Hagra and Omnath, Locus of Rage for Child of Alara, and a foil Smothering Abomination for Savra, but that’s basically it. I don’t get as excited for EDH as Jason does, and I don’t have a brewing bug like everyone else. I’m stuck in this weird limbo that’s not quite backpack-finance-grinder and not quite full-time MTG retailer, so I have to sit and wait patiently for everyone else to crack their boxes and then sell all of their unwanted stuff to me at buylist prices.

Playing It Safe

Anyway, enough about my first-world problems. Most of you know that I don’t speculate much, especially on the new stuff. There’s nothing in Battle for Zendikar that strikes me as a “buy this now before the Pro Tour so you can make hundreds of dollars before it’s too late!” and I wouldn’t follow my advice even if I was confident in one particular card.

When I do tend to pick out a card that I think is going to go up, I (obviously) want to be as sure as possible that the card will see the price changes that I predict, and I want to minimize risk to the point where I basically can’t lose out if my decision ends up being incorrect. These factors are why I continue to slowly stockpile up on cards like Necrotic Ooze, Heartless Summoning, and Glistener Elf. Barring the erratic multiplayer product reprint, all of these cards are safe to sit in my speculation storage, while I patiently wait for the right combo piece to be printed, or the right Top 8 configuration to make me a bunch of money.

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(Sooooon…..)

Speculating for Fun

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Every once in a while, though, I like to get in on the fun of speculating on shake-ups in the Standard metagame, or the effects of the casual market. In a previous article of mine, I pointed out how much I liked Spawnsire of Ulamog as a pickup. While the card obviously has zero competitive appeal (except for this one Travis Woo decklist, and the accompanying article that never fails to make me laugh), it’s a casual double whammy for both Timmy and Johnny, and is a budget version of “I win the game” for players that can’t afford Emrakul and friends.

I predict that as these non-competitive players buy packs from Wal-Mart, Target, their LGS, etc., they’ll start to build their own Eldrazi-based decks, and look to utilize some of the older Eldrazi from ROE into their new lists. Spawnsire is cheap, but more importantly, flashy. Remember how there were several dragons that increased in price after the Dragons of Tarkir set release, because these invisible players wanted to complete dragon decks? It’s basically the same principle.

I started by picking up a dozen or so copies off of PucaTrade at an average of 329 points (a point is basically a penny in trade value, so I paid $3.29 in trade). After I checked and noticed that there were a dwindling number of copies available on TCGplayer, SCG, and eBay, I became more confident in my speculation choice and bought out the remainder of SCG’s copies (on September 9, 2015; they’ve since been restocked at a slightly higher price). There are a couple of benefits that ordering from SCG will give you, even if their prices are usually a little bit above the market value. Thankfully, these Spawnsires were the cheapest available on the internet at the time, so that problem was negated. But otherwise, buying from SCG means that my order is guaranteed to come, and I don’t have to worry about the store cancelling. In addition to that, SCG employs extremely strict graders, and several of the SP copies that I bought turned out to be NM by my own standards.

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Right now, the cheapest single copy of Spawnsire I can find is on TCGplayer as an LP one for $3.69, and NM ones are upwards of $4.50 on TCGplayer and eBay. I’m not writing this part of the article to try and convince everyone else to buy in with me so I can flip my copies. I’d actually advise against buying in right now if you’re solely trying to make a profit, because for every dollar extra you pay, you have to hope that the card increases by twice that much more to cover the costs of what you bought in at. I bought in at $3.25, so I’m hoping and expecting that Spawnsire reaches at least $6 to $7 retail before I cash out through TCGplayer or trade outlets. If you buy in at $4 to $5, you’re hoping that it reaches $8 to $10 before your profits become noticeable and worthwhile. I still think the card is a fine trade target at $4, if for some reason you happen to still find these in trade binders.

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Now, the price isn’t the only thing that I’ve kept my finger on the pulse of over the past few weeks. There’s another number above the store listings that has been slowly and steadily dropping, and it’s a lot less visible to someone who’s just looking up the TCGplayer mid price every few days.

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As the number of stores that have the card in stock decreases, the closer we can expect there to be to a sudden price jump. When I bought my copies from SCG, the total number of English sellers on TCGplayer was above 70, and we’re down to 55 as of September 30, 15. While Spawnsire isn’t exactly the kind of card you usually want to own a playset of, it’s worth mentioning that only eight of the sellers on TCGplayer have four or more copies in stock at the moment. It’s very easy to decrease the number of sellers one at a time, as each non-competitive player picks up the one or two copies they need for their ramp deck over the next few weeks.

My last point about Spawnsire goes all the way back to an article I wrote in March, and it was one of the first pieces of content that I ever produced for MTGPrice. If you haven’t read it yet, I personally think it’s one of my better and more original pieces of writing. If you’d rather not go through and read another 2,000 words in addition to your weekly dose of DJ Johnson, the TL;DR of the article was that it’s important to keep track of the cards at the bottom of the MTGstocks interests page, whose prices have only ticked up by a small percentage day after day. These small bumps can forecast a larger, more sudden spike that everyone will later claim “came out of nowhere,” even though it was fairly predictable to those who paid attention.

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As we can see here, Spawnsire received a small five-percent bump since yesterday, and he’s been on this page multiple times every week. Even though these price changes aren’t nearly as drastic as the newly unbanned Black Vise, they’ll certainly be more relevant and longer-lasting months down the road when non-competitive players continue to seek out Spawnsires with no additional supply and nobody cares about Black Vise anymore.

End Step

Huh. I did not think I could write an entire article about a single card, focusing on my strategy and tactics of speculating on it. Was this helpful to you? I figured everyone wanted a break from the past two weeks of Q&A-style articles.

In other news, Hardened Scales continues to reward me for my laziness. Every time I see that thing jump up another dollar, I think, “Man, I should really sell all of those copies I have. There’s no way that this hype can be sustained for this long without a proven winning decklist.” Then it goes up again. This time I’m going to remember to sell out at $4. I mean it.

Sneak Peak into the MTGPrice Trading App

It started with a simple goal: build the best MTG trading app possible. It’s a goal we believe can revolutionize the way we share our hobby with each other, and we were lucky enough that the community agreed with us. Thanks to your support, we’ve been working behind the scenes for months, conceptualizing, designing, re-designing, improving, and squashing hundreds of bugs along the way.

Now, we’re finally ready to show off the fruits of our labors.

The Beta release of the MTGPrice trading app is coming, and today I want to give you a glimpse into what’s on the way.

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There are a ton of awesome things this app can do. We’ve designed it with speed in mind: it should take you no longer than a few moments to search for and find the price of a card. The app will sync flawlessly with your collection on MTGPrice.com, and any trade you make using it will update your collection in all places.

There’s a lot of cool things the app does: it allows you to track the live value of your collection, shows how much the value of your collection grows over time, and even lets you keep up with the latest pricing trends across the board, from your collection and wishlist to Standard or Modern!

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It’s the trading system where things really shine. We set out to create the best trading app available, and that’s what we believe we’ve done—we hope you’ll agree. Accomplishing that goal meant attempting something that’s never been done before: automatic trade suggestions based on location. Looking for a particular card on Friday afternoon of a Grand Prix? Simply put it on your wishlist and have the app find someone across the room who has the card and is interested in something you have for trade. This kind of automatic, GPS-specific evolution can completely change the way we acquire cards, making trading easier and more painless than ever before.

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We expect the Beta release to be made within the next week, and we can’t wait to put it in your hands. Thank you for your time, and we’re looking forward to launching this and building the next evolution in trading with you!

–The MTGPrice team

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY