By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when and why our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such running this weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought for personal use without hope of profit. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we we’ve been up to this week:

Buying Period: July 24th – Aug 1st, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

This week I’m mostly working on my deal to sell the Super Collection, but I’ve also started in on some select singles that I see as good opportunities.

BOUGHT

• 10x Evolutionary Leap (Foil) @ $10.25/per
• 10x Return to the Ranks (Foil) @ $2/per
• 13x Return to the Ranks (Jap Foil) @ $1.50/per
• 16x Rally the Ancestors @ $2/per
• 4x Demonic Pact @ $5.45

This set of buys is mostly about cards I think have a future in Modern with a dash of hot Standard action. I’m convinced that both Leap and Return to the Ranks have what it takes to assemble compelling combo scenarios in Modern. Not only are decks already floating to the surface of the metagame, but these are precisely the kinds of cards that get better as more combo pieces get printed to align with their build around benefits. Frank Karsten posted a fairly compelling set of videos with a Ranks deck last week but I think this is just the tip of the iceberg vs. what’s possible down the road. Likewise, Evolutionary Leap is being underestimated in a world where you can set up shop with Bitterblossom or Lingering Souls and then dig for whatever limited set of value creatures you need to run your game. Siege Rhino? A 187 creature? Somebody will figure it out and it will be beautiful.

Rally the Ancestors didn’t make the Top 8 in Standard at Pro Tour Origins this weekend, but the deck may still find itself in a good position later this season, so I was willing to snap up a few sets at the low end of the spectrum, aiming to unload them around $4-5 in trade at a future peak. If it doesn’t get anywhere in Standard it’s just as likely to cause trouble in Modern as Return to the Ranks. See the Sam Black Rally in Modern video if you don’t believe me.  Demonic Pact was on my Digging For Dollars: MTG Origins list and as predicted, it showed up in a few different builds that ran deep into Day 2 at the Pro Tour. The deck may need some work to stay in the metagame, but the Sultai version that Toronto local Daniel Fournier was running looked fun as hell so I picked up a set to fool around with.

 

SOLD (PucaTrade)

• 2x Chord of Calling @ $8.02 ($3.50 cost)
• 1x Academy Ruins @ $12.39 (pack opened)
• 1x Mikokoro, Center of the Sea @ $10.44 (pack opened)
• 1x Minamo, School at Water’s Edge @ $19.80 ($8 cost)
• 1x Horizon Canopy @ $57.32 ($22 cost)
• 3x Flooded Grove @ $23.56 ($10 cost/per)
• 1x Grove of the Burnwillows @ $57.12 (pack opened)
• 1x Chalice of the Void @ $16.42 (pack opened)
• 1x Ghostly Prison @ $6.97 ($2 cost)
• 1x Sword of Feast and Famine @ $17.44 ($6 cost)
• 1x Liliana of the Veil @ $101.75 ($55 cost)

Having recently acquired a Mishra’s Workshop through Pucatrade, I am now emboldened to seek out additional opportunities to trade up into big ticket cards. As such I’m rebuilding the account quickly to about $1400 worth of Pucapoints, with a focus on unloading specs that are peaking or pack opened cards that I had laying around in my collection without purpose in my decks. If you’ve got something special worth more than $500 that you’d like to turn into Pucapoints, look me up ’cause I’m on the hunt.

Houston Whitehead (@TNSGingerAle)

BOUGHT

• 12x Surrak, the Hunter @$1 per,
• 12x Eidolon of Blossoms @ .50 per
• 12x Stratus Dancers @.50 per

Jim Casale (@Phrost_)

BOUGHT (PucaTrade_

• 5x Abbot of Keral Keep
• 4x Demonic Pact
• 3x Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
• 1x Flooded Strand (foil)
• 2x Pyromancer’s Goggles

Jim says:

“I feel like any mythic rare under $5 in MTG Origins could possibly spike and I wanted to insulate myself if I needed to play the cards next weekend.”

Jason Alt (@jasonealt)

BOUGHT

• 7x Night of Souls’ Betrayal @ 4.85
• 3x Night of Soul’s Betrayal (SP) @ 4.05

 

Guo Heng Chin (@theguoheng)

BOUGHT

• 4x Starfield of Nyx @ $5.75/per (from LGS)
• 4x Herald of the Pantheon @ $1.67/per (from LGS)
• 4x Sigil of the Empty Throne @ $1/per (from LGS)
• 3x Disciple of the Ring @ $1.83/per (from LGS)
• 2x Foil Starfield of Nyx @ $15.70/per (from LGS)

Guo says:

“I tested John Taylor’s Abzan Constellation list which top 8ed SCG Richmond last weekend and I was super impressed with it. Starfield of Nyx was a lot better than I expected. I grabbed a playset of the key components from Magic Origins the next day to make sure I can play the deck if it breaks out at the Pro Tour. And with the WMCQ season coming (and Game Day next weekend. Foil full art Languish!), I thought it prudent to have access to at least a few archetypes.

Right after making the purchase, I received a text from the other LGS I frequent that they’ve now got Starfield and Demonic Pact (yay!) in stock after new stock of Magic Origins arrived in the middle of the week. Oh wait, the Starfield is foil. Fine I’ll take it. Tyler Jacobsen’s rendition of Nyx’s starfield looks like one of those art that would look gorgeous in foil. Plus a foil copy would be nice for EDH purposes.

When I arrived at the LGS for FNM yesterday, it turns out that they have not one but two foil Starfields. Fine, I’ll take both. Savings are overrated anyway.

It turned out that the foil isolation on the art wasn’t as good as I expected. Whoever did the foil isolation for Starfield of Nyx should be ashamed of him or herself. It was one of those lazily done foil isolation (let’s foil the whole artwork! Re: Dragonlord Ojutai foil) that ruined an artwork that could otherwise be gorgeously rendered in foil. Oh well, I’m sure financially it wouldn’t matter at all, and they are for personal keeps anyway (I’ll be selling my non-foils now). Now could someone please break Starfield of Nyx in Modern so my shiny Starfields are worth $60? Hint: Omniscience. Hint, hint: Gifts for Starfield, Obzedat’s Aid, Snapcaster, and Omniscience? Regardless, I do think Starfield of Nyx foils have good long-term potential due to its uniqueness. That card is begging to be broken in EDH.”
Note: The rest of the guys were quiet this week.

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

After an exciting weekend that featured a fantastic mix of old and new decks and some high drama around the Player of the Year race, we have crowned Mono-Red Aggro at the top of yet another major 2015 Magic tournament, this time in the hands of the cool and collected Joel Larsson.

Despite finishing 2nd, Owen Turtenwald’s “best player in the world” Mike Sigrist rockets to the top of the Player of the Year race on the back of his GP win earlier in the season and his excellent finish this weekend. The last minute shift represented a bittersweet end of season for Eric Froelich, aka EFro, who has hoped to punctuate his election to the Magic Hall of Fame with a Player of the Year title he held the lead on for weeks.

To recap, our Top 8 included the following decks:

1. Abzan Control (Kentaro Yamamato)
2. Red w/ Chandra (Steven Neal)
3. Red Aggro (Pat Cox)
4. U/R Thopters (Stephan Barrios)
5. G/R Devotion (Paul Jackson)
6. Abzan Control (Matt Sperling)
7. Red Aggro (Joel Larsson)
8. U/R Thopters (Mike Sigrist)

In the quarters, Sigirst took out the Yamamato piloted Abzan Control deck that has been showing up at top tables for months, amply demonstrating that Thopters are pushing hard into Tier 1. Australian Paul Jackson was able to take out one of the other U/R Thopter decks with his familiar G/R Devotion deck. Pat Cox was eliminated from the brackets by Matt Sperling, with Abzan Control surviving a commonly close call against Red Aggro. Joel Larsson also triumphed in a mirror match against Stephen Neal.

In the semis, Sigrist took out G/R Devotion, while Larsson dispatched the last of the Abzan decks, knocking out Sperling.

Finally, Larsson’s Red Aggro build took down the U/R Thopters deck after an anti-climatic 5-game set, when Sigrist was forced to mulligan down to 3 in the final game.

With the final Pro Tour stop in the bag, we now look ahead to a couple of months of full power Standard before the big shakeup of Battle for Zendikar knocking the entire Theros block out of Standard in early October.

With our eyes on the metagame for the rest of the summer, let’s take a look at the notable cards of the weekend:

If last week was the coming out party for the self-multiplying robot crew, this week has cemented its’ position in the metagame. Found as a 4-of in both of the U/R Thopter decks that made Top 8, including the Sigrist deck that finished 2nd, the only question left is whether this card could also find a home in Modern Affinity or some other sweeper resistant value build. For now it’s enough that the card has peaked around $15, a level that will only be sustainable if the home archetypes continue to do well. If you picked them up under $10, I think you can safely get out now with pride, but there is still a chance that this is our new Rabblemaster with a potential $25 price tag.

 

Abbot showed up as a 4-of in many of the red decks that made up one of the largest archetype contingents of the weekend. It also easily demonstrated that a 2-power 2-drop with Prowess and additional upside is still as good now as when Seeker of the Way was cutting up opponents earlier this season. The card has peaked over 250% on the weekend to around $8, up from $3. Typically it’s tough for a rare from a summer set to hold over $5, so you can likely feel relatively safe trading on hype early this week if you have extras lying around. On the other hand, if the card manages to make an appearance in Modern later this year, then foils under $25 will start to look pretty attractive. I’ve certainly got a few foil sets stashed away on this premise, but conquering the power curve of Modern may prove too ambitious for this little beater.

The other red rare from Origins to get played as a 4-of this weekend, was this versatile answer to everything from creatures to life totals to counterspells. It’s the kind of card that’s rarely exciting, but usually good and likely to hold at least $3-4 so long as Red Aggro stays Tier 1. That being said, this card has few applications out of Standard and that makes me happy to be trading these out at the current $5-6 value heading towards FNM this week.

Having appeared in a ton of GR decks this weekend, with 5 copies appearing  in the Top 8, and another 3 being played in Brian Kibler’s 8-1 G/W Mid-Range deck, Nissa has managed to gain $5, from $25 to $30 on the weekend. Like Jace, this latest incarnation of the Zendikarian mage has strong potential to push $40 if she can help win a major tournament in the coming weeks, but most of benefit from having pre-ordered her under $20 is likely already baked in. If you’re holding extras you can feel free to unload into profitable trades, perhaps by targeting some underpriced modern staples from MM2. Otherwise, hold onto your playset as Nissa is likely to be a viable staple for most of her time in Standard.

Despite zero copies appearing in the Top 8, Demonic Pact decks pushed very deep into the tournament and spent a lot of time on camera. Perhaps even more exciting is the fact that multiple color combinations, from Abzan, to Sultai and G/B, all seem to be viable builds, alluding to the possibility of deeper demand for this dangerous mythic rare. With all that going on, the card has spiked (pushed at least partially by one or more targeted buyouts) from $5 up to $13 and back down to $8-9 after it failed to Top 8. Though I’m not super excited to pick these up at this level, I am more interested in the MTGO versions around 2.50 this evening. I’ll also be keeping an eye out to get back in around $5-6 if post-tourney deflation opens back up the door on solid future profits should the card manage to take down a big event later this season.

He didn’t Top 8, but he was solid all weekend and you better believe the naysayers are going to be quieter moving forward. Fitting into decks from Jeskai Tempo to Demonic Pact and UB Control, this multi-faceted planeswalker continues to defy expectations via explosive turns where it provides multiple plays. The price being over $30 means it’s an almost certain sell position for extra copies, but continued success at high levels should keep it in the top tier of Standard card prices.

After a dominant spring as a driving force behind the Esper Dragons decks, the U/W Dragonlord with the bulletproof behind was largely off the radar this weekend. At $15 or so, I’m looking for the card to drop a bit further towards $10 before picking some up on the hopes of renewed success sometime during the ’15-16 Standard seasons. Our own Guo Heng Chin however thinks the card is a solid pickup even at the current prices. Reinforcing this position is the fact that an Esper Dragons deck actually went 8-1-1 in the hands of Robin Dolar. Had Dolar done better in his drafts, perhaps we would have seen Ojutai in the Top 8 again so best not count him out quite yet.

Thanks so much for following along with us this weekend. We’ll see you next time for Pro Tour: BFZ in October!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Day 2 Set-Up

Pro Tour Origins has thus far been just as compelling as we had hoped, with an array of interesting new decks on display alongside some updated staples and some very, very clever high level play. Here’s our coverage of Day 1 so you can get caught up.

The metagame on Day 1 in Standard has advanced the possibilities for new and renewed strategies including Red/Green Devotion, Red/Blue Thopters, Abzan, Sultai and Blue/Black Control and various flavors of decks built around Rally the Ancestors.  And though the field has been diverse, with no one deck making up more than 15% of the metagame, the deck to beat all weekend has looked like Red Aggro, which has defined the durdle clock across the board and punished many a player getting too fancy.

So far in paper, the card spikes have been relatively mellow, with Hangarback Walker jumping another $2 from $10 to $12 overnight on speculation that it could become the rare rare card that breaks out above the $10 ceiling and heads for $20. Demonic Pact has also gained $1 or so, from $5 to $6, but will likely need some serious camera time today or an eventual Top 8 to get into the $10+ mythic rare club. Abbot of Keral Keep has also show some growth and could hit $5-6 from $3 if one of the decks running it does well on camera today. Thopter Spy Network and Exquisite Firecraft have also shown a bit of movement but are unlikely to pop without a demonstration of dominance heading into our Top 8.

Now after an additional 3 rounds of ORI-ORI-ORI draft, the stage is set for 5 more rounds of Standard to figure out our Top 8 players and decks.

4:28: Randy Beuhler calls out the UR decks as the best deck of the weekend.

4:32: Herald of the Pantheon and Sphinx’s Tutelage called out as Honorable Mentions for card of the weekend.

Round 12 (6th Rnd of Std)

Antonio Del Moral Leon (GB Demonic Pact) vs Raphael Levy (RG Devotion)

4:40pm: Demonic Pact back on camera with the G/B Leon deck.

5:02pm: King of the hill Gottleib has Rally Decks back in the spotlight along with Lilianna, Heretical Healer.

5:17pm: Levy puts See the Unwritten on the map in Standard. Could Battle for Zendikar give it more gas?

5:36pm: GW Constellation on Deck Tech with Kyle Boggemes.

5:50pm: Sam Black runs out Abbot of Keral  Keep facing Green-Red Devotion but Gerry T manages to put it away in 3.

7:34pm: Deck Tech: Blue/Red Tutelage

• 4x Magmatic Insight
• 4x Tormenting Voice
• 4x Jace, Vrynn’s Prodigy
• 1x Alhammarret’s Archive
• 4x Sphinx’s Tutelage
• 2x Dictate of Kruphix
• 1x Dig Through Time
• 4x Treasure Cruise
• 2x Send to Sleep
• 4x Anger of the Gods
• 1x Roast
• 2x Whelming Wave

7:42pm: Some notable increases and decreases on MTGO overnight include:

• Eidolon of the Great Revel +16% to 16.07
• Woodland Bellower +30% to 4.16
• Zurgo Bellstriker +54% to 2.07
• Yavimaya Coast +100% to .92

Eidolon and Zurgo are up on the fact that Red Aggro has been showing up at top tables all weekend and looks well positioned to hold Tier 1 status in this latest phase of Theros/KTK/Origins Standard heading into the fall. A big win this weekend could push the relevant cards even higher, if mostly online.

Woodland Bellower is climbing on the appearance of the G/B Demonic Pact deck.

• Nissa, Vastwood Seer -17% to 14.39
• Hangarback Walker -25% to 9.04
• Thopter Spy Network -35% to 3.49
• Pyromancer’s Goggles -37% to 2.52
• Pia and Kiran Nalaar -50% to 1.10

Nissa hasn’t shown up as an important 4-of anywhere, and her price has fallen as a result. Hangarback Walker/Thopter Spy Network decks haven’t pushed deep into Day 2 for the most part, allowing these cards to slide back a chunk. The Goggles decks that were kicking around also haven’t driven home, and the key card is also sliding as a result.

8:10pm: Round 15 (9th Round of Standard)

Rich Hoaen (Red Aggro) vs. Matt Sperling (Abzan Control)

Sperling takes Game 1 having stabilized at 16 life, and tries to fend off the red advance in Game 2 only to go down to a top decked Stoke the Flames when sitting at 3. Sperling pulls out the third game to make Top 8.

Pat Cox makes Top 8 off-camera. One of the U/R Artifacts players also just made Top 8, which could bode well for Hangarback Walker.

Takehiro Fujimoto is playing Paul Jackson in the feature area, with Fujimoto on a more goblin-centric version of red against the Jackson GR Devotion build. Jackson knocks Goblins out of Top 8 contention.

Local boy Daniel Fournier on the last Deck Tech of the day. Toronto Hype!

Deck Tech: Sultai Pact (Daniel Fournier)

• 4x Jace, Vrynn’s Prodigy
• 3x Languish
• 4x Demonic Pact
• 1x Nissa, Vastwood Seer
• 3x Satyr Wayfinder
• 2x Tasigur, The Golden Fang
• 3x Den Protector
• 1x Dig Through Time
• 1x Ugin, The Spirit Dragon
• 1x Murderous Cut
• 2x Silumgar’s Command
• 3x Thoughtseize
• 2x Sultai Charm
• 3x Hero’s Downfall
• 3x Disperse

Note: Demonic Pact has now jumped over $10 on constant coverage exposure and at least one deck in the Top 16.

Round 16 (Last Round of Standard)

Bryan Gottlieb (Abzan Rally) vs. Mike Sigrist (Blue/Red Thopters)

Game 1: Sigrist leverages early flying attacks over top of Deathmist Raptor and finishes up the game with a Shrapnel Blast.

Game 2:  Gottlieb ties it up after some solid value plays.

Valentin Mackl (Jeskai Tempo) vs. Joel Larsson (Red Aggro)

Game 1: Larsson takes the first game after a flurry of moves and countermoves.

Our Top 8 is confirmed to include the following decks so far:

1. Abzan Control (Kentaro Yamamato)
2. Red w/ Chandra (Steven Neal)
3. Red Aggro (Pat Cox)
4. U/R Thopters (Stephan Barrios)
5. G/R Devotion (Paul Jackson)
6. Abzan Control (Matt Sperling)
7. Red Aggro (Joel Larsson)
8. U/R Thopters (Mike Sigrist)

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.