Danny Brown

Understanding the Changes to MTGO Payouts

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Once again, major changes are afoot in the Wonderful World of Magic Online™, this time targeting Constructed events and their prize structures. This announcement is bigger than just some minor restructuring, though: the quick summary is that Wizards is introducing a new currency, doubling entry fees for Daily Events (without a corresponding prize increase), and stifling player-to-player trading, including player-to-bot trading. This is a big deal, and whether or not it goes well, the MTGO economy will be seeing the fallout from this for the foreseeable future. If you play Magic Online or are concerned about its economy, you should definitely check out the official post with full details.

However, because that article is written with a whole lot of coded language and corporate doublespeak, I’ll be FJM‘ing it below. Without further ado, here’s Magic Online Digital Product Manager Lee Sharpe:

Magic Online is an awesome place to play Magic. We think it could be better with some changes, particularly focused on Constructed events. Recent player feedback supports this as an area where we can improve, especially when alternative Limited events such as the Tempest Remastered or Cube Drafting are available. In this spirit, today we are announcing some changes to Magic Online events.

This is a promising start. Wizards is listening to player feedback and instituting the Constructed-equivalent of Tempest Remastered and MTGO Cube. Could this be the long-promised return of leagues?!

WHAT ARE YOUR GOALS WITH MAKING THESE CHANGES?

We focused on what Constructed players want to do with their prizes and made sure our prize offerings reflected those goals:

  1. Provide a prize that allows a Constructed player to immediately jump in another event.
  2. At least some events provide players with prizes that allow for better deck customization as preferences and sets change.

Okay, okay. You might think this is getting good. I assumed that what Sharpe was saying with point number one above is that events will now pay out once you finish your final round, as they currently make you wait for every match to finish before handing out prizes. (Spoiler: this is not what Sharpe is saying.)

What Sharpe is really saying with point number two is, “At least some events provide players with prizes that have actual value.” This, in fact, is not good.

WHAT ARE THOSE CHANGES?

Play Points will now be used as prizes for Constructed queues and Daily Events. Eight-Player Queues and Daily Events will award prizes that are a combination of Play Points and boosters, while two player queues will award prizes that are entirely in Play Points. Additionally, all three of these plus many other Magic Online events will have an additional entry option that consists entirely of Play Points.

I wonder why they don’t just pay out in event tickets, the already-established currency on Magic Online?

We believe Play Points will do a great job of achieving the first goal, which is to allow players to play events more easily. To make sure the second goal is also met, we are still awarding some prizes as booster packs. Players can trade or open these boosters to help them get new cards for their decks.

Again, why not just award event tickets rather than introduce a new currency? There has to be a catch.

In the future, we plan to look at other ways to use prizes to promote deck customization besides booster packs (mainly because they are mostly used currently to join Limited events). However, for now we want to focus on the changes that we’re announcing today.

This is a completely unnecessary paragraph. I imagine that Sharpe is hinting at prizes of singles for Constructed events in the future, but Wizards doesn’t have much of a track record of delivering on promises related to Magic Online, so don’t count on this paragraph ever meaning anything. It exists solely to say, “This isn’t the only thing we’re doing, guys! We know this isn’t good enough or even good at all but we’re super seriously working on something better! Pinkie promise!” If it’s not actively being instituted, assume it will never happen.

DETAILS OF THE NEW CONSTRUCTED EVENTS

Before we talk about additional ways to use Play Points, here are the details of the events where you can win them!

Constructed Two-Player Queue

Start Times: Fire on demand
Location: Constructed Queues
Entry Options:

  • Option 1: 2 Event Tickets
  • Option 2: 20 Play Points

Size: 2 players
Play Style: Single Elimination
Duration: One round, lasting up to 50 minutes.

Sharpe is starting with one of MTGO’s biggest weaknesses: two-player queues. For the uninitiated, two-player queues cost two event tickets to enter for each player. The MSRP for a booster pack is four tickets, so ostensibly, the winner gets the full value for the four total tickets of entry fee.

However, ever since the 2013 increase of redemption fees from $5 to $25—the impact of which would take an entire article to fully describe—pack prices have plummeted. Generally, a player should be able to get between two and three tickets each for booster packs, with occasional jumps above three or dips below two. With pack prices consistently lower than MSRP, there have been times during the last two years where you could have a 90-percent win percentage in two-player queues and still be losing money. The problem is that many competitive players see these queues as the most time-efficient way to play meaningful games to test their decks.

So how do the Play Points prizes look?

Place
1st
Prizes 30 Play Points
QPs 0
2nd
Prizes 5 Play Points
QPs 0

Before, Wizards could pretend like it was not taking a cut off of two-player queues when essentially selling a booster pack for four tickets. Now, the players know upfront that 12.5 percent of their combined entry fee is going to the house. I bet Sharpe tries to spin this positively:

The Two-Player Queue is available for Standard, Modern, Legacy, Vintage, Pauper, and Momir Basic. If you win, you get enough Play Points to play in another one, plus you’re halfway to the one after that. If you lose, you’re a quarter of the way to a free one. Keep earning more points!

Told you.

Ultimately, not much changes economically for players of these queues. This essentially stabilizes the winner’s prize at the equivalent of three tickets, with a pity half-ticket going to the loser. I’m not a math scientist, but that still seems to be unfavorable to the average player, who wins about 50 percent of his or her matches. If Wizards actually gave the full amount of Play Points back to the players, it might be a different story.

Constructed Eight-Player Queue

Start Times: Fire on demand
Location: Constructed Queues
Entry Options:

  • Option 1: 6 Event Tickets
  • Option 2: 60 Play Points

Size: 8 players
Play Style: Single Elimination
Duration: Three rounds, each round up to 50 minutes.
Prizes:

Place
1st
Prizes 2 Magic Origins booster packs and
140 Play Points
QPs 2
2nd
Prizes 1 Magic Origins booster pack and
60 Play Points
QPs 1
3rd-4th
Prizes 60 Play Points
QPs 0

The Eight-Player Queue is available for Standard and Modern. Winning the first match gets you enough Play Points to play in another eight-player queue. Winning the second match gets you enough Play Points to play in another eight-player queue, plus a booster. Finally, if you can win all three matches, you’ll receive more than enough Play Points to enter two more eight-player queues, on top of two boosters!

I’m sure there will be players unhappy about these only being available for Standard and Modern, but the eight-man queues don’t seem so egregious to me. The old prize payout was five packs for first place, three packs for second place, and two packs for third and fourth places. If we’re assuming that ten Play Points are worth roughly about the price of a ticket and that packs are worth about three tickets each, this seems like about the same payout for everybody except slightly better for first place. Whether you like a top-heavy payout is purely a matter of personal preference.

Constructed Daily Event

Start Times: See Schedule
Location: Constructed Scheduled
Entry Options:

  • Option 1: 12 Event Tickets
  • Option 2: 120 Play Points

Size: 8 players
Play Style: Swiss
Duration: Four rounds, each round up to 50 minutes.
Prizes:

Match Wins
4 Wins
Prizes 6 Magic Origins booster packs and
360 Play Points
QPs 3
3 Wins
Prizes 3 Magic Origins booster packs and
180 Play Points
QPs 1

SOUND THE OUTRAGE ALARM.

Sharpe really buried the lede here, as now we’ve gotten to the part where Wizards is doubling of the price to enter Daily Events, one of the defining tournament series on Magic Online.

Most recently, Daily Events cost six event tickets to enter and consisted of four rounds of Swiss play. If you went 4-0, you got 11 packs, whereas 3-1 got you six packs. Even when packs are as low as two tickets, this is more than a triple-up for going undefeated and a nice double-up for going 3-1.

I should really note how important Daily Events are to Magic Online players who want to “go infinite.” These aren’t the best value in history (Daily Events used to give 13 packs for 4-0, for example), but they’re good enough value that players can dream about stringing together enough 3-1 and 4-0 finishes that they don’t have to put money into Magic Online anymore, with the best players even turning a profit.

From WOTC’s perspective, players turning a profit or playing for free appears bad, but there’s a bigger picture here. How many players have dumped a ton of money into Magic Online hoping to go infinite but never really get there? My guess would be many, many more than those that do actually reach the goal of playing for free. However, with this move, Wizards has shattered the dream of going infinite for a whole lot of players, as the prizes have not increased as sharply as entry fees.

For illustration’s sake, let’s assume a three-ticket booster pack price, even though that’s not very realistic recently. Old Daily Event 4-0s would pay out 33 tickets after an entry fee of six, an increase of 550 percent. Now a 4-0 record pays about 54 tickets of value compared to a 12-ticket entry fee, an increase of only 450 percent.

Does a 3-1 payout improve? With a three-ticket booster, the old system’s 3-1 record would result in a triple-up from six tickets to 18. Now players get roughly 27 tickets for their 12-ticket entry fees, nine tickets short of that triple up we used to see.

There’s no doubt about it: Wizards is significantly lowering the payout for Daily Events.

Constructed Daily Events are available for Standard, Modern, Legacy, Vintage, and Pauper. They reflect the highest level of regularly available competition on Magic Online. As such, we are increasing the number of event tickets used to join to reflect this and help distance it from the eight-player queues. Since the quality of play in Constructed Daily Events can be quite intense, we expect some players will stick to the queues. Choose the level of event that is right for you.

“We determined that Daily Events were decidedly better value than everything else we offer, and rather than consider the fact that these being scheduled events is a reasonable enough downside to justify that better value, we decided to double the entry fee instead.”

You’ll also see the prize structure provides some very good rewards for those who do well under this system: Three wins gets you three boosters as well as enough Play Points for another Constructed Daily Event entry and halfway to one after that. Four wins is six boosters, plus enough Play Points for three more Constructed Daily Event entries. We hope these events are exciting—and the prize structures different enough from each other—that no matter what kind of player you are, you will be able to find the event offerings that are right for you.

No mention of the fact that the Daily Event payout has been neutered. Sharpe has failed to convince me that these are “very good rewards.”

WHAT ELSE CAN I DO WITH PLAY POINTS?

We want players to have the options to select a variety of ways to use their Play Points. You can see above how you can use them in Constructed Queues and Daily Events. Play Points, like Phantom Points before them, are untradeable…

Let me cut you off right there, Lee. He’s trying to skip over the most important part, but the fact that these are untradeable is a crucial point.

As someone who plays on MTGO primarily for Cube, I can appreciate Phantom Points, but they are terrible value for anything other than that one format. I’ve avoided phantom Draft and Sealed events like the plague, but now Magic Online is instituting a terrible system for all of its Constructed queues. Got that? Let’s move on.

…and we’re excited to be able to use them creatively in new and exciting ways because of that. Also like Phantom Points, Play Points will be available as an entry option for Phantom Queues, and we are expanding their use as entry options in the following other events:

Event Type
Booster Drafts
Current Entry Options Option 1: 14 Event Tickets
Option 2: 3 Boosters and 2 Event Tickets
New Additional Entry Option Option 3: 140 Play Points
Four-Booster Sealed Events
Current Entry Options Option 1: 18 Event Tickets
Option 2: 4 Boosters and 2 Event Tickets
New Additional Entry Option Option 3: 180 Play Points
Sealed Daily Events
Current Entry Options Option 1: 26 Event Tickets
Option 2: 6 Boosters and 2 Event Tickets
New Additional Entry Option Option 3: 260 Play Points
PTQ Preliminaries
(Constructed and Sealed)
Current Entry Options Option 1: 30 Event Tickets
New Additional Entry Option Option 2: 300 Play Points

The prize structures of these event types are unchanged. They will not award any additional Play Points. But we believe this new structure will provide players Constructed players with the opportunity to use Play Points beyond events that award them as prizes.

Admittedly, it would be pretty annoying to not get to enter Limited events with these, and at least they’re not trying to pay out in only Play Points, so this part is basically fine.

WHEN ARE THE EVENTS CHANGING?

The new structures will begin after the August 12 downtime, when release events for Magic Origins end.

Just enough time to sell your account! (And MTGO Traders owner Heath Newton confirmed that many players are.)

CAN I USE PLAY POINTS ALREADY IN MY ACCOUNT FOR THESE EVENTS?

Yes! As I stated in the June Events article, Play Points will be introduced and Phantom Points will be retired during this Wednesday’s downtime. However, each account will receive 6 Play Points for every Phantom Point they have in their account at that time.

Thanks, I guess?

CAN I BUY PLAY POINTS IN THE MAGIC ONLINE STORE?

No. The only way to get Play Points is through events (although sometimes they also may be available through special promotions). Most events that support a Play Point entry option will also support an event ticket entry option, and those tickets are available in the Magic Online Store.

Yep, these are totally the replacement for phantom points.

WHERE SHOULD I SEND MY FEEDBACK?

You can send detailed feedback to magiconlinefeedback@wizards.com. This email goes directly to Worth Wollpert, Mike Turian, Chris Kiritz, and me—the team making the day-to-day business decisions about Magic Online. I generally read everything the same day it comes in.

We also read Magic articles published online and the Magicsubreddit. You can also reach us via Twitter through the official @MagicOnline Twitter account or directly at my account, @mtg_lee.

Lee Sharpe
Digital Product Manager—Magic Online Events

Such a large section devoted to soliciting feedback indicates that Wizards knows this is a player-unfriendly move. The Magic community has been able to get Wizards to backtrack on bad decisions before. If you feel this impacts you negatively, let Wizards know.

The Future of the MTGO Economy

Nobody really knows what will happen to Magic Online’s economy as a result of these changes, but we can make some educated guesses.

First, let’s discuss booster pack prices. It stands to reason that if fewer boosters are being put into the hands of players, the price of individual boosters will increase. As prizes for events, this is good, but keep in mind that most events now pay out in Play Points, so this ultimately ends up being a minimal payoff for Constructed players. Limited players, however, will be paying higher pack prices, meaning that drafting on Magic Online will be more expensive. This doesn’t appear to benefit Constructed or Limited players. I wonder who does benefit, then? (Wizards).

Second, players will have less need to sell boosters or singles for tickets, so player-to-player trades will decrease. This includes player-to-bot trades, as bots are owned by individual Magic Online players. This move should decrease secondary market commerce significantly.

Third, players will have less ability to liquidate their collections. Since Play Points can’t be traded, they can’t be sold on the secondary market, either. A player looking for some quick cash used to be able to sell prize packs and singles for tickets and sell tickets for cash. While that is still technically true, Constructed players will have fewer packs to work with and will be accumulating Play Points that can’t be liquidated quickly or efficiently.

The community at large seems to be quite upset with these changes. The fallout may not be as bad as many are predicting, but I would hardly call these changes a good thing for the player base. Still, this Reddit post outlines much of the expected value of events moving forward, and yeah, the world will probably go on. I’d still love to see WOTC’s internal numbers after this change.

Magic Online has long justified its high prices despite its low costs by stating that the paper and digital games should have as much in common as possible. Now it appears that Wizards is taking steps toward making Magic Online a self-contained economy where one is not able to liquidate cards or currency, like what we see in Hearthstone and SolForge. The problem is that the prices remain comparatively high to those games.

There’s so much more to be said about Magic Online, but this should be a good overview of why there is controversy regarding Monday’s announcement. If you’re unhappy with these changes, let Wizards know. And hey, post your thoughts in the comment section below. Remember, Wizards has backed off due to community backlash before. Do you think these changes benefit anyone but the company’s shareholders?

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Week One and Capitalizing on Hype

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Last week in Chicago we got our first taste of Standard with Magic Origins, and there were 3 G/R Devotion decks in the top 8.  To be perfectly honest, 7 of the top 8 decks were just slight rehashes of existing decks.  In an extreme example of this, Logan Mize decided to cut a whole color from his deck and avoid playing any cards from the last two sets.  It’s unlikely any real metagame shifting changes will happen before the Pro Tour in a few weeks but that doesn’t stop people from going crazy.  What did I spend my weekend doing? Getting rid of cards!

puca

 

My go-to for getting rid of cards I don’t need is Pucatrade.  It’s a bit of investment to get started but clearly shows it’s advantages upon new set releases.  A lot of the cards from this set are at the highest prices they will ever be and it’s a quick and easy way to earn some value for them.  For those that are uninitiated, Pucatrade is an online trading program that matches users want lists with other user’s have lists.  For the price of a few stamps, envelopes, and toploaders you can send off your unwanted or hard to trade cards for “Puca Points” which are essentially worth 1 penny.  Although they have no cash value, the value of a card is based on an aggregate fair trade price that is displayed in Puca Points that works out to about 100 Puca Points is $1.

That being said, how many of you thought you could get 65 cents in trade for an Outland Colossus?  While most of the cards listed might end up being bulked to a vendor, release week is a great chance to trade them away for non-bulk values.  But there are also some non-bulk cards that are worth selling into the hype.  I’m not a fan of holding onto Goblin Piledrivers right now.  There is too high of a chance that this price is based mostly on nostalgia and not enough on actual power.  The worst case scenario is that I have to pick up a playset in a month for about the same price.  Most standard legal rares have a very hard time staying above $10 even when they’re as ubiquitous as Siege Rhino.  Goblin Rabblemaster is one of the most recent exceptions to the rule because of how flexible it was in many different deck types.  Unfortunately for Piledriver, he requires a bunch of goblin buddies to be good.

Goblin-Piledriver-Magic-Origins-Spoiler

What else should we do besides selling off cards we aren’t planning on using for the next two months? Digging out important commons from your pre-release pools is a big deal.  For every playset of impressively expensive Shaman of the Pack you find, you could also save yourself a few bucks by picking out Clash of Wills and Sphinx’s Tutelage too.  There’s a number of powerful uncommons that I would recommend just setting aside for later use.

In no particular order, these commons and uncommons strike me as useful:

  • Bounding Krasis
  • Blood-Cursed Knight
  • Shaman of the Pack
  • Foundry of the Consuls
  • Mage-Ring Network
  • Leaf Gilder
  • Gather the Pack
  • Elvish Visionary
  • Dwynen’s Elite
  • Aerial Volley
  • Sylvan Messenger
  • Nissa’s  Pilgrimage
  • Magmatic Insight
  • Goblin Glory Chaser
  • Fiery Impulse
  • Subterranean Scout
  • Smash to Smithereens
  • Dragon Fodder
  • Enlightened Ascetic
  • Consul’s Lieutenant
  • Celestial Flare
  • Swift Reckoning
  • Chief of the Foundry
  • Artificer’s Epiphany
  • Negate
  • Clash of Wills
  • Sphinx’s Tutelage
  • Eyeblight Massacre
  • Fleshbag Maurader
  • Gnarlroot Trapper
  • Nantuko Husk
  • Read the Bones
  • Thornbow Archer

While some of these you may have from older sets, it’s important to note you can glean $10-20 from picking through your “draft trash” that would otherwise have been spent at a vendor the day of a tournament.  It’s important to note it’s hard to keep a small collection and not lose money by having to rebuy cards you sold earlier.  Ideally we keep an equilibrium of selling cards when they’re high and buying when they’re low but if we can avoid buying cards all together then it’s just a win more.

Investment Hour:

There are a few cards I think that are pretty good to pick up now but you shouldn’t rush out to buy them right this second.  I would keep them on my radar for trades this weekend.

ugin

 

If we ever get to a point in standard where people ask the question “What is the most powerful planeswalker in Standard?” and the answer is not Ugin then we will have a problem.  This guy is at a low point in his life cycle and despite being only a single copy in most decks he still commands a price point over $25.  Fate Reforged is notably better than the last middle set (Born of the Gods) but still suffers from middle set syndrome that makes it scarcely opened product.  Ugin’s life cycle is further increased by his tag teaming with Karn in Tron in Modern.  When you top if off with the casual appeal, it’s hard to ever see him dropping below $20 without a Duel Deck printing.  I think now is a fine time to pick up this dragon Planeswalker in preparation for a new Standard rotation in the fall.

127 143160

 

Mono-red decks have always been popular with casual players because of their low price point.  Recently with the emergence of Atarka Red as a truly powerful force, aggressive red decks have been able to sustain some weird prices.  Goblin Rabblemaster and Stoke the Flames are poster children for aggressive red cards that are worth a ton more than they probably should be.  I believe Exquisite Firecraft is an easy Five Dollar bill for the next year and a half.  Abbot of Keral Keep and Scab-Clan Berserker can tag team some control heavy metagames while also being very reasonably priced aggressive threats.  I’m especially bullish on the fact that Scab-Clan Berserker can often get in 4 damage before paying the Ultimate Price which is significantly better than the very popular Eidolon of the Great Revel.  If red aggressive decks are not your thing then you may want to pass on these but I would get well acquainted with their power level.

 

 

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin, Uncategorized

Tarkir Block Spread Analysis

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This week I’m going to take a look at the spreads on top cards from Tarkir block to see if there are any interesting trends that should be noted, especially since Magic Origins has been released.

 

Some background on spreads for the unfamiliar (reposted from an older article of mine):

 

Getting the Spread – To calculate the spread, you calculate the percentage difference between a store’s buylist price and the fair trade price of that same card. The smaller the spread value the more demand a store, or several stores, is driving for a particular card. Examples to demonstrate my point (prices out of date in calc):

 

Flooded StrandFair Trade Price – $19.99Best Buylist Price – $14.25Spread = 1-($14.25/$19.99)28.71% Sarkhan, the DragonspeakerFair Trade Price – $13.29Best Buylist Price – $7.40Spread = 1-($7.40/$13.29)44.32%

 

Negative Spread – There are two types of negative spread, Natural Arbitrage and Market Force Arbitrage. Natural arbitrage is the difference between one store’s demand of a card compared to another store’s demand. Market force arbitrage is when the market value of a card’s price is lower than a specific store’s buylist. Market force arbitrage lasts shortly but can be more profitable. Natural arbitrage is something I’m more inclined to analyze because this gives us enough time to pick up as many copies as we’re willing to invest in a card before the market corrects itself on the price. Market force arbitrage might make great sound bites on Twitter, but natural arbitrage is going to give you the most value over time.

Khans of Tarkir

 

Mythic Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Sorin, Solemn Visitor M $8.09 $5.99 $3.50 $4.30 $5.30 56.74% 46.85% 34.49%
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker M $4.85 $4.25 $1.50 $1.70 $2.62 69.07% 64.95% 45.98%
Anafenza, the Foremost M $3.91 $3.00 $1.00 $1.56 $0.00 74.42% 60.10% 100.00%
See the Unwritten M $3.00 $3.10 $1.00 $1.07 $1.35 66.67% 64.33% 55.00%
Wingmate Roc M $2.85 $3.00 $0.50 $1.07 $0.00 82.46% 62.46% 100.00%
Clever Impersonator M $2.48 $2.29 $0.50 $1.13 $1.10 79.84% 54.44% 55.65%
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant M $1.92 $1.22 $0.25 $0.54 $0.00 86.98% 71.88% 100.00%
Ashcloud Phoenix M $1.36 $1.29 $0.25 $0.40 $0.00 81.62% 70.59% 100.00%
Surrak Dragonclaw M $1.36 $0.99 $0.25 $0.48 $0.56 81.62% 64.71% 58.82%
Hooded Hydra M $1.30 $1.49 $0.25 $0.63 $0.60 80.77% 51.54% 53.85%
Narset, Enlightened Master M $1.00 $1.06 $0.25 $0.28 $0.47 75.00% 72.00% 53.00%
Pearl Lake Ancient M $0.98 $0.99 $0.00 $0.26 $0.00 100.00% 73.47% 100.00%
Zurgo Helmsmasher M $0.93 $0.79 $0.00 $0.21 — 100.00% 77.42% —
Empty the Pits M $0.85 $0.79 $0.00 $0.23 $0.00 100.00% 72.94% 100.00%
Ugin’s Nexus M $0.84 $1.00 $0.00 $0.19 $0.26 100.00% 77.38% 69.05%

Chart (click to view higher res)

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.13.52 PM

Rare Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Polluted Delta R $18.84 $14.99 $12.00 — $10.00 36.31% — 46.92%
Flooded Strand R $16.19 $12.50 $10.00 $9.77 $9.00 38.23% 39.65% 44.41%
Wooded Foothills R $15.11 $11.75 $8.00 — $8.00 47.05% — 47.05%
Windswept Heath R $14.02 $11.00 $7.00 $8.79 $8.00 50.07% 37.30% 42.94%
Bloodstained Mire R $11.86 $8.50 $7.00 — $6.50 40.98% — 45.19%
Dig Through Time R $5.83 $3.49 $3.00 $3.15 $0.00 48.54% 45.97% 100.00%
Siege Rhino R $4.27 $3.00 $1.00 $2.16 $0.00 76.58% 49.41% 100.00%
Rattleclaw Mystic R $1.87 $1.79 $0.25 $0.69 $0.50 86.63% 63.10% 73.26%
Bloodsoaked Champion R $1.75 $0.99 $0.25 $0.60 $0.79 85.71% 65.71% 54.86%
Hardened Scales R $1.14 $0.99 $0.10 $0.50 $0.31 91.23% 56.14% 72.81%
End Hostilities R $1.01 $0.99 $0.10 $0.15 $0.43 90.10% 85.15% 57.43%
Utter End R $0.96 $0.99 $0.10 $0.34 $0.52 89.58% 64.58% 45.83%
Jeskai Ascendancy R $0.88 $0.99 $0.10 $0.26 $0.00 88.64% 70.45% 100.00%
Rakshasa Deathdealer R $0.86 $0.99 $0.10 $0.24 $0.00 88.37% 72.09% 100.00%
Crackling Doom R $0.81 $0.99 $0.10 $0.22 $0.27 87.65% 72.84% 66.67%
Mantis Rider R $0.80 $0.99 $0.10 $0.23 $0.27 87.50% 71.25% 66.25%
Crater’s Claws R $0.66 $0.99 $0.00 $0.18 $0.25 100.00% 72.73% 62.12%
Altar of the Brood R $0.61 $1.00 $0.00 $0.06 $0.18 100.00% 90.16% 70.49%
Deflecting Palm R $0.59 $0.99 $0.10 $0.17 $0.00 83.05% 71.19% 100.00%
Savage Knuckleblade R $0.53 $0.99 $0.00 $0.10 $0.28 100.00% 81.13% 47.17%

Chart

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.30.24 PM

 

 

Notes

 

When looking at the mythics, I am shocked at the amount that are $2 or less retail. When looking at buylist prices the highest buylist offering on any of the mythics from Khans is Sorin, Solemn Visitor at $5. This tells me that there is definitely potential in the mythics from Khans to spike once Theros rotates from Standard. The cheaper mythics are starting to get fairly close to buylist, which is is a good time to speculate.

 

The mythics have a fairly linear decline in buylist prices the cheaper they get in retail, which means that right now the retail price of the mythics reflects their actual demand in Standard. Many of the mythics have power but just haven’t found a home in a deck yet. Cards like Wingmate Roc have previously shown that they can be excellent in Standard however the spread is still rather high. Many financiers, including myself, believe in the power of See the Unwritten due to the announcement of Battle of Zendikar and the expected spike in price once massive Eldrazi are revealed and players want to start brewing with the card.

 

When looking at the rares the spreads become much more obvious for deciding which cards are going to be in demand in the next Standard. All of the fetchlands have the lowest spreads, which is expected considering their eternal applications in addition to being in heavy demand in Standard. I think we can say based on these numbers that besides Windswept Heath (which just received a clash pack printing) that the fetchlands aren’t going down in price anymore. Pick up your copies now if you want them at their cheapest.

 

The next five rares that have the lowest spreads in general are Dig Through Time, Siege Rhino, Rattleclaw Mystic, Bloodsoaked Champion, and Hardened Scales. The first three cards are going to be great in post-Theros Standard however Bloodsoaked Champion and Hardened Scales is an interesting to see in the top five lowest spreads. Both cards must have significant casual demand. Hardened Scales is a sleeper favorite among many in the mtgfinance community for being a great long term pickup. Unfortunately, Bloodsoaked Champion had an event deck printing so the price cap is going to low on that guy moving forward.

 

Fate Reforged

 

Mythic Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon M $27.09 $24.49 $15.00 $15.55 $0.00 44.63% 42.60% 100.00%
Monastery Mentor M $14.98 $11.79 $8.00 $8.82 — 46.60% 41.12% —
Soulfire Grand Master M $9.07 $7.06 $5.00 $3.58 $5.85 44.87% 60.53% 35.50%
Whisperwood Elemental M $6.98 $5.00 $2.50 $2.37 $0.00 64.18% 66.05% 100.00%
Warden of the First Tree M $3.77 $3.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.18 73.47% 60.21% 42.18%
Brutal Hordechief M $2.77 $1.99 $0.50 $1.05 $0.00 81.95% 62.09% 100.00%
Shaman of the Great Hunt M $2.05 $1.89 $0.25 $0.77 $0.00 87.80% 62.44% 100.00%
Temporal Trespass M $1.45 $1.45 $0.25 $0.34 $0.00 82.76% 76.55% 100.00%
Torrent Elemental M $1.19 $1.19 $0.25 $0.32 $0.76 78.99% 73.11% 36.13%
Ghastly Conscription M $0.82 $0.99 $0.00 $0.19 $0.21 100.00% 76.83% 74.39%

 

Chart (click to view higher res)

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.13.32 PM

 

 

Rare Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Tasigur, the Golden Fang R $8.50 $6.99 $5.00 $4.78 $4.61 41.18% 43.76% 45.76%
Crux of Fate R $2.49 $1.99 $0.50 $0.69 $0.00 79.92% 72.29% 100.00%
Mardu Strike Leader R $1.37 $0.99 $0.10 $0.31 $0.49 92.70% 77.37% 64.23%
Outpost Siege R $1.00 $0.99 $0.10 $0.26 $0.00 90.00% 74.00% 100.00%
Silumgar, the Drifting Death R $0.93 $1.37 $0.10 $0.27 $0.00 89.25% 70.97% 100.00%
Mastery of the Unseen R $0.75 $0.99 $0.10 $0.09 $0.00 86.67% 88.00% 100.00%
Citadel Siege R $0.65 $0.99 $0.10 $0.19 $0.25 84.62% 70.77% 61.54%
Flamewake Phoenix R $0.64 $1.00 $0.10 $0.10 $0.00 84.38% 84.38% 100.00%
Crucible of the Spirit Dragon R $0.58 $1.00 $0.00 $0.17 $0.17 100.00% 70.69% 70.69%
Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury R $0.58 $1.00 $0.10 $0.10 $0.21 82.76% 82.76% 63.79%
Atarka, World Render R $0.55 $1.00 $0.10 $0.10 $0.28 81.82% 81.82% 49.09%
Frontier Siege R $0.54 $0.99 $0.00 $0.08 $0.00 100.00% 85.19% 100.00%
Soulflayer R $0.49 $0.99 $0.00 $0.10 $0.00 100.00% 79.59% 100.00%
Dromoka, the Eternal R $0.47 $1.00 $0.00 — $0.00 100.00% — 100.00%
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death R $0.45 $0.99 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 77.78% 88.89% 100.00%
Monastery Siege R $0.45 $1.00 $0.00 $0.24 $0.16 100.00% 46.67% 64.44%

 

Chart

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.30.46 PM

 

 

Notes

 

While Khans had a more defined linear decline in rare prices, Fate Reforged has a much more drastic decline in mythic prices with Ugin leading the pack as one of the most expensive mythics in Standard. Fate Reforged mythic prices more accurately represent what I expect when looking at mythics since more than half of them have a fair trade price above $2. Spreads on Ugin, Monastery Mentor, and Soulfire Grand Master are all favorable right now across large retailers. Whisperwood Elemental has a higher spread however it could still be a great card moving into the post-Theros Standard. Cards with higher spreads that could still see a reasonable amount of play include Warden of the First Tree, Brutal Hordechief, and Shaman of the Great Hunt though depending on how Standard shakes out these could also be misses based on current store demand.

 

Besides Tasigur, all of the rares in Fate Reforged have insanely high spreads right now. Tasigur is starting to climb up in price so like Khans fetches now is the time to get in on cheap Tasigurs. Many rares are super cheap though like Mastery of the Unseen. Like Khans mythics, there seems to be potential in the rares of Fate Reforged since so many of them are below $1.

 

Dragons of Tarkir

 

Mythic Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Deathmist Raptor M $23.57 $0.00 $12.00 $13.83 $0.00 49.09% 41.32% 100.00%
Dragonlord Ojutai M $18.45 $0.00 $10.00 $7.04 $12.13 45.80% 61.84% 34.25%
Dragonlord Atarka M $10.41 $0.00 $5.00 $5.71 $6.07 51.97% 45.15% 41.69%
Narset Transcendent M $10.02 $0.00 $4.00 $4.43 $0.00 60.08% 55.79% 100.00%
Dragonlord Dromoka M $7.99 $0.00 $3.50 $4.62 $5.76 56.20% 42.18% 27.91%
Sarkhan Unbroken M $7.59 $7.99 $3.50 $4.71 $4.15 53.89% 37.94% 45.32%
Dragonlord Silumgar M $7.19 $0.00 $2.00 $3.57 $0.00 72.18% 50.35% 100.00%
Dragonlord Kolaghan M $3.80 $0.00 — $2.26 $0.00 — 40.53% 100.00%
Shaman of Forgotten Ways M $2.46 $0.00 $0.50 $1.22 $1.08 79.67% 50.41% 56.10%
Dragon Whisperer M $2.44 $0.00 $0.50 $1.09 $0.00 79.51% 55.33% 100.00%
Shorecrasher Elemental M $2.44 $0.00 $0.50 $0.62 $0.00 79.51% 74.59% 100.00%
Ojutai Exemplars M $2.25 $0.00 $0.25 $0.61 $0.00 88.89% 72.89% 100.00%
Risen Executioner M $2.19 $0.00 $0.25 $0.93 $0.92 88.58% 57.53% 57.99%
Descent of the Dragons M $1.64 $0.00 $0.25 $0.84 $0.89 84.76% 48.78% 45.73%
Clone Legion M $0.87 $0.00 $0.00 $0.28 $0.31 100.00% 67.82% 64.37%

 

Chart (click to view higher res)

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.16.13 PM

Rare Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Collected Company R $18.31 $0.00 $10.00 — $8.18 45.39% — 55.32%
Kolaghan’s Command R $9.31 $0.00 $6.00 — $5.49 35.55% — 41.03%
Den Protector R $6.80 $0.00 $3.50 $3.50 $0.00 48.53% 48.53% 100.00%
Atarka’s Command R $6.51 $0.00 $3.50 $3.61 $4.15 46.24% 44.55% 36.25%
Thunderbreak Regent R $6.05 $0.00 $2.00 $2.97 $0.00 66.94% 50.91% 100.00%
Dromoka’s Command R $5.98 $0.00 $3.00 $3.20 $0.00 49.83% 46.49% 100.00%
Haven of the Spirit Dragon R $4.34 $0.00 $1.50 $2.12 $2.37 65.44% 51.15% 45.39%
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit R $2.45 $0.00 $0.50 — $1.10 79.59% — 55.10%
Secure the Wastes R $2.45 $0.00 $0.50 $1.09 $1.17 79.59% 55.51% 52.24%
Zurgo Bellstriker R $2.28 $0.00 $0.50 $0.82 $0.00 78.07% 64.04% 100.00%
Avatar of the Resolute R $1.75 $0.00 $0.50 $0.95 $0.85 71.43% 45.71% 51.43%
Icefall Regent R $1.63 $0.00 $0.25 $0.57 $0.00 84.66% 65.03% 100.00%
Sidisi, Undead Vizier R $1.37 $0.00 $0.25 $0.57 $0.00 81.75% 58.39% 100.00%
Stratus Dancer R $1.23 $0.00 $0.25 $0.46 $0.31 79.67% 62.60% 74.80%
Ojutai’s Command R $1.22 $0.00 $0.25 $0.35 $0.37 79.51% 71.31% 69.67%
Surrak, the Hunt Caller R $1.02 $0.00 $0.10 $0.26 $0.00 90.20% 74.51% 100.00%
Hidden Dragonslayer R $0.86 $0.00 $0.10 $0.24 $0.00 88.37% 72.09% 100.00%
Myth Realized R $0.76 $0.00 $0.00 $0.19 $0.42 100.00% 75.00% 44.74%
Arashin Foremost R $0.67 $0.00 $0.10 $0.19 $0.00 85.07% 71.64% 100.00%
Assault Formation R $0.67 $0.00 $0.10 $0.25 $0.31 85.07% 62.69% 53.73%
Dragon Tempest R $0.64 $0.00 $0.10 $0.18 $0.36 84.38% 71.88% 43.75%
Silumgar’s Command R $0.53 $0.00 $0.10 $0.08 $0.26 81.13% 84.91% 50.94%
Dragonlord’s Prerogative R $0.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.08 $0.00 100.00% 84.31% 100.00%
Sunscorch Regent R $0.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.19 $0.26 100.00% 62.75% 49.02%
Radiant Purge R $0.48 $0.00 $0.00 $0.06 $0.23 100.00% 87.50% 52.08%

 

Chart

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.30.57 PM

 

 

 

Notes

 

Finally, looking at Dragons of Tarkir we see that prices are still rather high across the board for the various mythics within the set. The mythics are in this set are much more in demand than Khans or Fate Reforged at this point. Deathmist Raptor and Dragonlord Ojutai are leading the pack, and even the five most expensive mythics are all $7-$10 retail. The dragonlords are all really popular too, which is to be expected since their Standard demand on top of causal demand will help buoy their price. Even MTGO redemption hasn’t moved prices that much yet. However, as more and more people continue to redeem throughout the year the prices should continue to drop. No spreads really pop out to me as something that needs to be watched closely.

 

Top rares have more room to drop than mythics. Again, the event deck has capped Collected Company and Dromoka’s Command, while cards like Kolaghan’s Command and Den Protector have a tiny more room to drop as the summer goes on and Dragons continues to saturate the market. Again, like the mythics, nothing really pops up here yet as a cheaper card with a low spread, so the best way to get in on Dragons rares moving forward is going to be watching results closely to see where Magic Origins is taking Tarkir block cards.

 

Wrapping Up

 

That’s my analysis so far of Tarkir Block spreads. Where do you all see Tarkir block cards going based the data, or even your own observations? Magic Origins was released last weekend and the results are already shaking up the format. Plenty of Origins cards are moving one way or the other so which cards are you picking up outside Origins that reflect the new Standard format? As always, I love hearing from you guys in the comments.

 

Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: Origins Makes a Splash at SCG Chicago

2 Comments

Magic Origins is upon us, and last weekend we had the opportunity to watch the new cards in action. The first weekend of any new set’s legality in Standard is always an exciting one and Origins was no exception. On center stage we could watch players battle with updated decks at the Chicago Star City Games Open.

Watching the first large Standard tournament after a new set’s release can cause a lot of early hype for cards getting camera time. It always seems like a handful of cards get all the attention, inevitably leading to sudden price spikes. After all, Origins has only been available for a week now and supply of any singles from the set are dangerously thin. This can lead to some pretty crazy price movements.

I had the pleasure of watching a couple games on camera throughout Saturday, and I look forward to watching more later today (being Sunday). With this context in mind, I want to touch on a few observations I’ve made so far along with my recommendations and cautions.

Hoogland’s U/W Control

Jeff Hoogland’s innovative U/W Control deck received decent camera time on Saturday. He was even called upon to do a well-deserved deck tech.

Control

What sparked the most interest to me in this deck were the Origins cards that played a significant role in its strategy. Consider the only creature in the deck, for starters: Hangarback Walker.

Hangarback

When this rare began trading on TCG Player, it was immediately condemned to near-bulk status preselling in the $1.50 range. But it didn’t take long for the artifact creature to move higher. After yesterday’s appearance throughout SCG Chicago live coverage, Hangarback Walker bumped up a tad more, solidifying its status as non-bulk…at least for now.

My take? Initially I wasn’t a believer. Artifacts with XX in their casting cost haven’t been good since Chalice of the Void. But after watching Hoogland’s deck tech, I slowly warmed up to the card. Putting little at stake, I grabbed a playset to have on hand in case this card really breaks out.

I really like Jeff’s comment that this card can be a relevant 2-drop. It also has versatility in late-game. Hangarback Walker also fits into numerous builds because of its colorless casting cost – potential breakout Standard cards are often the cards that work in multiple archetypes. With these qualities, I’m certainly going to be keeping a close watch on this card. If it gets even more successful camera time today, I could easily see this hitting $10 for a day, then settling in the $5-$7 range in the short term. Being from Origins, if this card shows any mainstay then it’ll have a shot at maintaining that $10 price tag in a couple months.

Hangarback Walker wasn’t the only Origins card that made Hoogland’s deck new and exciting. He also included two copies of Thopter Spy Network to work in cooperation along with Hangarback Walker.

Spy

Again we have a card that was deemed as virtual bulk when it began its life at a buck. But over the last couple days we saw the price tag jump from $1 to over $3. Jeff Hoogland’s creative use of the blue enchantment is likely a significant catalyst to this movement. The card enables card draw – something control decks thrive on – and it even combos well with Darksteel Citadel (useful artifact land in the deck) and Hangarback Walker, which leaves behind even more flying thopter dudes when it dies.

I’m extremely hesitant on this card. I was one click away before pulling the trigger on buying a set when I decided to consult with a trustworthy source, MTG Price’s own Jim Casale. Not only did he set me straight on Thopter Spy Network, he also expressed overlapping sentiment on Hangarback Walker.

Tweet

Hoogland’s deck ran a few other Origins cards, but only Commons and Uncommons in the main deck. He did include two copies of Displacement Wave in the sideboard, which I will definitely be keeping my eye on going forward. The blue sorcery could be devastating to token-based strategies, but if it remains only in sideboards then its price potential isn’t too great.

Moving forward, I definitely prefer Hangarback Walker over Thopter Spy Network. Hangarback Walker gives so much more value and doesn’t depend on artifacts to work. The fact Hangarback is the cheaper of the two rares makes little sense to me – this is my favorite target coming out of the new U/W Control deck. Even if the deck itself does not remain relevant post-Pro Tour, the artifact creature still has a chance at squeezing into an array of other builds.

5-Color Rally

One other player received a deck tech on Saturday of the Chicago SCG Open: Matthew Tickal’s 5-Color Rally.

5 color

Talk about innovative! Any deck that runs Chord of Calling naturally gets my attention. But Chord is far less interesting in this build when you compare it to the white instant deck namesake Rally the Ancestors.

Rally

This rare from Fate Reforged was purely bulk, never even showing up on most vendor buy lists until very recently. The card has been trading between $0.25 and $0.50 since forever. But Tickal just may have changed that.

His strategy is incredibly explosive, gaining endless value off Grim Haruspex, Deathmist Raptor, Den Protector, Satyr Wayfinder, and Origins common Nantuko Husk. The deck manages endless triggers from all the creature dying and returning. Handling all of these mechanics has to be very complicated. Complexity may be a barrier to becoming ubiquitous in Standard, but I have to be honest here – the deck looks really sweet. If anything, it showcases the potential power level of Rally the Ancestors, a card I bought a few sets of last weekend for very cheap. Even if sets hit $5 on eBay, I’ll still eek out a modest profit. And there is certainly potential for greater upside.

As for Origins cards in the deck, look no further than Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Liliana, Heretical Healer. The former is played as a 4-of while the latter is a singleton. I’m beginning to believe that Jace may be the most played new Planeswalker from the set, but it’s probably premature to make such a bold claim. I am fairly certain that at least one of the flip Planeswalkers will remain relevant and maintain a $30 price tag throughout Standard, but I am not prepared to predict which one. My suggestion on these is to watch their utility closely in the coming weeks, but hold off from buying in with cash on these already-expensive cards. Let’s wait for the supply to commoditize these cards first before we start looking at prices seriously.

Words of Caution

These two decks received a great deal of attention throughout the weekend, and for good reason. Star City Games likes to showcase innovative, successful strategies because it brings viewers. It’s a billion times more interesting to watch $0.15 rares like Rally the Ancestors take over matches than it is watching the Abzan mirror. I give Star City a lot of credit for their approach to live broadcasting their tournaments.

However this approach brings along with it a potential risk – emotional speculation. Seeing how awesome Thopter Spy Network is in one match, for example, can provide very misleading data on how the card may perform at the Pro Tour. It’s highly possible the blue enchantment gets no notice at any event ever again. Whenever new sets come out, there seem to be strategies that can dominate an ill-prepared metagame but then struggle for the rest of Standard.

Take it from someone who lost money on Contested War Zone – you do not want to speculate on a card that is in only strong in one archetype, which can also be hated out very easily.

War Zone

Contested War Zone traded at $6 the first weekend it was Standard legal. It’s been a bulk rare ever since. I’m not saying Thopter Spy Network will definitely be a bulk rare. I’m just expressing extreme caution when buying into new rares that are successful in a young metagame. The Pro Tour will reveal much more.

For now, I’m content with my playset of Hangarback Walkers and a handful of Rally the Ancestors. The former is an artifact creature with utility in early and late game – a true versatile card that could work in numerous archetypes. The latter is a penny stock, worth grabbing at a quarter just to tell a story and ride the wave. And in both cases, I’m committing very little money because I recognize these strategies can be as evanescent as fog on a summer morning.

Wrapping It Up

This was the most exciting Standard tournament I’ve seen in months. I just got so sick of watching endless Abzan mirrors. Standard always tends to get stale this time of year. But that’s all about to change as rotation approaches.

In the meantime, we need to be extremely careful with our Origins speculation. Strategies that make a splash this weekend may never make waves again. The safest play is to find versatile cards that could fit into varying decks, and acquire cautiously. There will be a time to buy in aggressively, but not until the Pro Tour. The Pro Tour is when the real buying opportunities surface, as players scramble to acquire cards to play the decks wielded by successful pros.

And who knows? Maybe Sphinx’s Tutelage – which also received some camera time last weekend – will continue to be a thing in Standard. Turbo-Fog received some camera time last Saturday and the deck looked pretty sweet. I don’t know if Wizards wants this deck to be good or not. Some casual players are excited by mill strategies, but watching one player sit there and cast fog while another sits there with a ton of harmless creatures hardly makes for exciting Magic.

Either way, we’re in for some exciting times ahead in Standard. This shift in focus will be reflected in card prices, and we’ll likely see a drift downward in Modern values and new weekly buyouts of Standard targets. We can remain in front of the curve by watching how the metagame unfolds. Come rotation we’ll see a brand new Standard. And if there’s room for a Tier 1 Rally the Ancestors strategy, I just may have to try my hand at the format.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

  • I’ve noticed that Star City Games will suddenly sell out of cards that make new appearances in live coverage. On Saturday I noticed they were out of stock of Rally the Ancestors with a $0.49 price tag. Sunday morning, just 12 hours later, I’m seeing the card still out of stock but with a $1.99 price tag. I suspect we’ll be seeing this card on camera again before the weekend is over, and I look forward to seeing where the price spikes to on Monday.
  • Hangarback Walker is also completely sold out at Star City Games, with a $2.99 price tag. Seeing as that is the eBay price, I suspect SCG will restock in the $3.99 to $4.99 range, but time will tell.
  • Here’s why I prefer Rally the Ancestors and Hangarback Walker over the Origins Planeswalkers when it comes to speculation. For one, the two rares are far cheaper than the new Planeswalkers. In addition, Star City Games has 15 copies of Jace in stock at $19.99 and 30 Liliana in stock at $27.99. I’m much less confident that these receive a sizable price bump in the near future. Meanwhile if SCG is truly sold out of Rally the Ancestors, they will have to establish a reasonable buy price in order to restock sufficient copies.

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