Revisiting Original Commander Legends

July 4, 2022 Oko Assassin

The abject failure of Commander Legends: Bauldur’s Gate has been a stark contrast to the Original Commander Legends (CMR) set, which was an absolute hit through producing powerful new cards combined with a few impressive reprints. I’ve been a proponent of buying into CMR cards for a long time, yet the singles market for this set have not yet been able to overcome the significant supply of this set so far. I believe this has been due to several restock waves of CMR being available throughout it’s time in print combined with the high price point of several signature cards, making it profitable to mass open for a profit. But since boxes went out-of-print earlier this year, the averaged sealed price has started to climb, from under $100 (when I strongly recommended them), to $120 each. As boxes dry up and sealed prices climb, it seems inevitable that singles that are not on track for a reprint (Jeska’s Will, Training Center, War Room, and Commander’s Plate) will begin to climb in price now that reprint threats of Double Masters 2022 and Bauldur’s Gate are out of the way. This is especially true for those cards that look safe from a reprint due to their power level, price point, or based on history. Below are a few cards that exemplify this opportunity.

Jeweled Lotus – Non-Foil, Foil, and Extended Art

Price today: $82 regular; $126 foil; $160 Extended Art
Possible price: 50% increase in 12 months
Confidence: 8/10
Disclosure: Own a few regular copies

Jeweled Lotus isn’t a casual card. But despite this, Jeweled Lotus has been included in 91,000 decks, making it the 19^thmost played colorless card currently in EDH. To put this in perspective, here’s how it compared to other expensive colorless ramp cards:

1,000,000: Sol Ring
177,000: Mana Crypt
105,000: Chrome Mox
93,000: Mana Vault
63,000: Mox Diamond
44,000: Phyrexian Altar
31,000: Grim Monolith

Needlessly to say, this card is played a lot! It provides a unique affect that is a must-have for certain decks. We all know this – and I’m positive WOTC knew this when creating the card. They wanted a financial anchor for CMR – and they certainly got it with Jeweled Lotus. For this reason, the price for the most basic version has held firm since CMR’s release at $70+, at one point approaching $100.

While the Foil Extended Art (FEA) price of this cards is very expensive, its recent price history was what made me evaluate it for this article. When Jeweled Lotus crushed out of Double Masters 2022, the price for FEA copies jumped to $1,000, although this hasn’t been backed up yet by a sale. Regular copies haven’t seen a similar boost yet, but I think they will over time. I believe all the other version, non-foil, foil, and extended art, are on track to post 50% gains over the next year as supply drains from the market pressuring this card to new heights. Currently the extended art and foil versions have much lower supply, but they also come at a higher price point. Overall, I think they all will do well.

A solid comparison for pricing can be found I think in Mana Crypt after it’s Double Masters reprint. While the CMR Jeweled Lotus has a much higher supply than Double Masters Mana Crypt specifically, and is played less, it is also the first printing of the card, offsetting these factors. Mana Crypt doubled quickly after its Double Masters reprint and I think Jeweled Lotus can at least grow 50% in the next 12 months due to their similarities.

Opposition Agent – Non-Foil

Price today: $10.50
Possible price: $20 in 12 months
Confidence: 9/10
Disclosure: Own a dozen copies

Opposition Agent was as cheap as $7.50 at one point but it has slowly grown to over $10 once again. This isn’t too surprising considering 52 near mint copies sold in the first 4 days of July on TCGPlayer.com, and 531 copies in the last 30 days. That’s a lot of pressure, especially if the assumption is that mass box openings will become a thing of the past soon for CMR. Given enough time, this card seemed destined to double up to $20 with potential for more.

One of the reasons I’m bullish on Opposition Agent is due to its similarities to Hullbreacher, which was an incredible card that rightfully got banned. Opposition Agent is a similar card design, but isn’t quite as oppressive, making it relatively safe from bannings for now. Yet I think the taint of Hullbreacher being a mistake will make WOTC reluctant to reprint Opposition Agent because doing so would bring up old feelings of resentment about the card design that led to both. Additionally, Opposition Agent doesn’t fit well into a preconstructed deck. It causes too many bad feelings and requires an opponent’s deck too be at too high of a power level to activate Opposition Agent’s ability. These factors make me much more willing to dump money into copies of Opposition Agent – knowing that it’s probably safe from reprints in the short term.

Commander Legend Lands – Non-Foil

Price today: ~$7/each
Possible price: $15-$20 in 18 months
Confidence: 8/10
Disclosure: Own around 100 copies of each

We’ve all known that the CMR lands were going to be profitable, it was only a matter of time. I bought in about a year after release, based on the price history of the Battlebond lands. I was early. It was surprising to me how long they stayed cheap and how the price continued to sink until recently. In April you could get many of these CMR lands for around $5/each, which was well below my buy-in. Today copies will set you back around $7 each, which is still fairly reasonable all things considered. These lands are heavily played and should post strong gains as supply begins to drain.

The main caveat is that WOTC showed a willingness to reprint these lands earlier than I would have expected when they included Training Center in the upcoming premium Secret Lair Commander Deck: Heads I Win, Tales You Lose. There are a lot of unknowns about this reprint – both in terms of whether it will have a significant impact on the price of Training Center and whether WOTC will continue to put these lands in future Secret Lair Commander Decks. I assume these $100 Commander decks will continue, but how much equity they are willing to burn on lands within them is an open question.

Casual Fridays

Are We There Yet?

July 1, 2022 Cliff Daigle

No, I’m not talking about Double Masters 2022, which isn’t officially releasing until next week. Nor am I discussing Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur’s Gate. What I’m thinking about is Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty, and if we’ve hit bottom.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Unlocked Pro Trader: The Still-Shifting Landscape

June 28, 2022 Jason Alt

Readers!

Last week I wrote about how the landscape has shifted a bit and as people actually got Baldur’s Gate cards in their hands, and I feel like I should admit that the landscape continues to shift and every article is merely a snapshot into a fluid situation, further compacted by the fact that Dominaria United previews will start any day, now. Fortunately, we still have some time to figure out some cards that have some velocity because they’re in decks that aren’t tearing up the charts but are still getting built quite a bit. Let’s look at the lesser known decks in Baldur’s Gate (I don’t remember the name of the set, go with it).

The obvious ones are still doing really well, but what about the ones that are not obvious are are not doing as well? Not exactly the dregs, but certainly not the decks ending up in the top-built decks from the last week. Compare Raggadragga’s 716 decks to some of the others.

The 347 Kadira decks aren’t exactly pulling the same weight, are they? That said, they are still pulling weight and we have ignored them for a few weeks. Let’s not do that anymore, shall we?

All precon cards. We talked about this last week – A ton of the high synergy cards are directly from the precon and I don’t know what to do about that. We could filter them out but then you’re getting some fairly low synergy scores and you might as well just look at top cards, which are likely Orzhov staples.

There aren’t enough Party-based decks in the world not to make Coveted Prize a perennial stinker, and going down below the “Top Cards” cutoff seems… fraught I guess is the word. Still, we should soldier on and see if we can find anything here.

This could take a minute, but every time I swing with this and activate it, someone asks “wait, does it really tutor when it swings?” Yes, this card is slept-on because Kaldheim is slept-on. This card, however, has solid fundamentals imo.

I don’t love looking at the raw number of inclusions as a substitute for analysis, but if this card is in this many decks and no one told the price, it’s a matter of time until this butts up against reality and becomes the price it’s supposed to be. Yeah, they’re printing everything into Bolivian right now but that doesn’t mean even the supply we got can keep up with this demand. A new card making this obsolete seems more likely than a reprint. Unfortunately, it seems more likely than a lot of things.

You can basically copy everything I said about Varragoth and apply it here. In fact,

This could take a minute, but every time I swing with [another creature] and activate it, someone asks “wait, does it really tutor when it swings?” and I say “no, you’re thinking of Varragoth.” Yes, this card is slept-on because Kaldheim is slept-on. This card, however, has solid fundamentals imo.

Casual Fridays

The Math of Double Masters 2022

June 24, 2022 Cliff Daigle

Welcome, let’s get down to the numbers of Double Masters 2022. We’ve got only 24 Draft Boosters per box and a mere 4 Collector Boosters per box, effectively upping the price for each pack.

We are also getting double the rares and mythics, along with some incredibly expensive reprints. Quite the assortment of value here, and with the numbers doubled, we’ve got some really amazing things and some real bulk mixed together.

So let’s dive in and see how rare these cards are, especially compared to rarities of sets past, as try to figure out what’s worth it and what isn’t.

The basics: 120 rares and 40 mythics means twice the odds in Draft Boosters (more on that in a minute) but the last two slots in a Collector Booster are split unevenly.

We know which rares and mythics have a Borderless version and a Textured version. All rares and mythics have a foil-etched version. This list is going to be updated as previews get finished off.

Borderless Rare (30)	Borderless Mythic (20)	Textured Foil Borderless Mythic (5)
Aether Vial Anger of the Gods Assassin’s Trophy Bloodforged Battle-Axe Bloom Tender Chaos Warp City of Brass Damnation Forbidden Orchard Force of Negation Gifts Ungiven Glimpse the Unthinkable Grand Arbiter Augustin IV Grim Flayer Hardened Scales Kolaghan’s Command Marchesa, the Black Rose Oracle of Mul Daya Panharmonicon Phyrexian Altar Pithing Needle Sensei’s Divining Top Smothering Tithe Supreme Verdict Surgical Extraction Teferi’s Protection The Mimeoplasm Thousand-Year Storm Vedalken Orrery	Allosaurus Shepherd Cavern of Souls Concordant Crossroads Consecrated Sphinx Crucible of Worlds Dockside Extortionist Dragonlord Dromoka Elenda, the Dusk Rose Emrakul, the Aeons Torn Imperial Seal Kozilek, Butcher of Truth Mana Drain Mana Vault Muldrotha, the Gravetide Seasoned Pyromancer Sedris, the Traitor King Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre	Emrakul, the Aeons Torn Kozilek, Butcher of Truth Liliana, the Last Hope Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre Wrenn and Six

Let’s deal with the Borderless slot first. With 30 rares and 20 mythics, this is almost very straightforward in this slot of the Collector Booster. The rares are in the pool twice, then add the mythics. As a result, to get a specific Borderless rare, you’ve got a 1/40 chance.

For the mythics, it’s a touch more complicated. The fifteen mythics that do NOT have a Textured version are a straight 1/80 to show up in that slot, but for the five that do, you need to flip a coin and see whether you get a Textured or not.

To put in more specific terms, I’m 1/80 to get a Borderless Wrenn and Six of any type, but I’m 1/160 to get either a Textured foil or a Borderless.

The foil-etched slot has a lot more options. The set has 120 rares and 40 mythics, and that means the potential pulls are from 280 cards. Any foil-etched rare is 1/140 and any mythic is 1/280.

Have a table, to help summarize these things.

Because Wizards has a slot for the etched, and a slot for the Borderless, we’ve got an interesting situation. The rarest special versions this set will not be borderless, or even the textured foils. It’ll be the foil-etched mythics that do not have a borderless version.

Have another table:

Rares in foil-etched WITHOUT a Borderless version (1/140 packs)

Mythics in foil-etched WITHOUT a Borderless Version (1/280 packs)

Abbot of Keral Keep
Abzan Ascendancy
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death
Anguished Unmaking
Arjun, the Shifting Flame
Ashenmoor Liege
Ashen Rider
Atarka’s Command
Atla Palani, Nest Tender
Backdraft Hellkite
Balefire Liege
Bedlam Reveler
Boartusk Liege
Bring to Light
Child of Alara
Conqueror’s Flail
Creakwood Liege
Dack’s Duplicate
Darksteel Plate
Dauntless Escort
Deathbringer Liege
Disciple of the Ring
Doran, the Siege Tower
Drogskol Reaver
Dromoka’s Command
Elsha of the Infinite
Empyrial Archangel
Fiery Justice
Figure of Destiny
Firesong and Sunspeaker
Glen Elendra Liege
Gravecrawler
Greater Gargadon
Green Sun’s Zenith
Guided Passage
Hostage Taker
Hydroid Krasis
Impervious Greatwurm
Intet, the Dreamer
Jeskai Ascendancy
Jodah, Archmage Eternal
Judith, the Scourge Diva
Kaervek the Merciless
Kambal, Consul of Allocation
Kederekt Leviathan
Lavalanche
Legion’s Initiative
Leonin Arbiter
Magister Sphinx
Master Biomancer
Mathas, Fiend Seeker
Mikaeus, the Lunarch
Mindwrack Liege
Murkfiend Liege
Necrotic Ooze
Nim Deathmantle
Ob Nixilis, Unshackled
Oona’s Prowler
Phyrexian Tyranny
Pillar of the Paruns
Planar Bridge
Prized Amalgam
Pull from Tomorrow
Rafiq of the Many
Restoration Angel
Reveillark
Rishkar, Peema Renegade
Roon of the Hidden Realm
Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
Shattergang Brothers
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant
Skullbriar, the Walking Grave
Splinterfright
Talrand, Sky Summoner
Tariel, Reckoner of Souls
Teneb, the Harvester
Thistledown Liege
Thraximundar
Thrumming Stone
Twinflame
Ulasht, the Hate Seed
Varina, Lich Queen
Venser, Shaper Savant
Villainous Wealth
Wasitora, Nekoru Queen
Weathered Wayfarer
Wilt-Leaf Liege
Yahenni, Undying Partisan
Zur the Enchanter

Aminatou, the Fateshifter
Animar, Soul of Elements
As Foretold
Aurelia, the Warleader
Bitterblossom
Divine Visitation
Dragonlord Silumgar
Emiel the Blessed
Ezuri, Claw of Progress
Food Chain
Ghave, Guru of Spores
Hellkite Overlord
Kaalia of the Vast
Karador, Ghost Chieftain
Lord of Extinction
Master of Cruelties
Mizzix of the Izmagnus
Monastery Mentor
Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh
Uril, the Miststalker
Warrior’s Oath

As is the tradition, let’s have a comparison of cards at different rarities and finishes, to give another perspective:

Card	Rarity	Frame	Approx. # of packs to open one	Value of packs opened ($70/pack)
Teferi’s Protection	Rare	Borderless	40	$2,800
Imperial Seal	Mythic	Borderless	80	$5,600
Wrenn and Six	Mythic	Textured	160	$11,200
Green Sun’s Zenith	Rare	Foil-Etched	140	$9,800
Food Chain	Mythic	Foil-Etched	280	$19,600

And to finish off talk of Collector Boosters, let’s review where these packs and these cards rate as compared to sets from the last couple of years. Do note that these tables do NOT account for the different prices of packs, a problem which I will rectify soon.

Set Name	Odds of a specific foil treatment rare	Odds of a specific foil treatment mythic
Double Masters 2022	1/40 to 1/140	1/80 to 1/280
CL: Battle for Baldur’s Gate	1/88	1/176 to 1/352
Streets of New Capenna	1/82 to 1/164	1/164 to 1/492
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty	1/136	1/272 up to 1/544
Innistrad: Crimson Vow	1/74	1/171
Innistrad: Midnight Hunt	1/75.5	1/151
Forgotten Realms	1/63	1/126
Strixhaven	1/154.5	1/309
Kaldheim	1/64	1/128
Modern Horizons 2	1/126.5	1/253
Commander Legends EA Foils	1/204	1/400

Now the cards:

Card/Treatment	Set	Odds of pulling it from a Collector Booster (approx.)
Extended Art Foil Jeweled Lotus	Commander Legends	1/400
Phyrexian Foil Vorinclex	Kaldheim	1/256
Japanese-Language Alternate Art Time Warp Foil	Strixhaven (Mystical Archive)	1/309
Foil Extended Art The Meathook Massacre	Innistrad: Midnight Hunt	1/151
Foil Fang Frame Sorin, the Mirthless by Ayami Kojima	Innistrad: Crimson Vow	1/171
Phyrexian foil (or foil-etched) Jin-Gitaxias	Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty	1/544
Blue Soft Glow Hidetsugu	Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty	1/219
Green Soft Glow Hidetsugu	Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty	1/444
Red Soft Glow Hidetsugu	Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty	1/1828
Phyrexian Foil Urabrask, Heretic Praetor	Streets of New Capenna	1/492
Borderless Foil Ancient Brass Dragon	Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur’s Gate	1/352
Foil Etched Food Chain	Double Masters 2022	1/280
Textured Borderless Foil Emrakul, the Aeons Torn	Double Masters 2022	1/160

The way that Wizards changed the number of packs in a box, and therefore the cost per pack, outweighs the progress they made when increasing the drop rate for these cards. It’s also worth noting that a lot of Double Masters 2022 will end up at very low prices because of low demand for a lot of these cards. These slots will be very swingy indeed!

Draft Boosters are also relatively straightforward. There are no foil-etched cards, and there are no textured foils. Just foil Borderless and regular frame foil.

There’s two slots dedicated to rares or mythics. Same deal as the foil-etched slot applies, twice the rares means that any rare is 2/280 or 1/140, and any mythic is 1/280. Those are nonfoils, though, and represent how we’re going to get prices on regular copies so very low.

Trickier is that Borderless foils can show up in the third and fourth slots, along with foils in the regular frame. We’re explicitly told that your chances of a borderless foil rare or mythic in those slots is 1.25%, which comes out to 1/80 per slot for a borderless foil of either rarity. Since rares are twice as common as mythics, there’s a 1/240 chance of any borderless foil mythic in that slot and 1/120 for any borderless rare. Then we have to multiply by the number of cards (30 for rares, 20 for mythics) to get the chances of a specific foil borderless card.

One more step. I’ve calculated all of these on a per-slot basis, so then this table has those odds x2, due to the pair of potential slots.

Any Traditional Foil Rare, regular frame	Any Traditional Foil Mythic Rare, regular frame	Any Borderless Foil Rare	Any Borderless Foil Mythic Rare
1 in 4.25 packs	1 in 8.5 packs	1 in 60 packs	1 in 120 packs
Specific Borderless Foil Rare	1 in 1800 packs
Specific Borderless Foil Mythic Rare	1 in 2400 packs

I’m happy to talk about the math and my methods in the comments here, on Twitter, but especially in the ProTrader Discord. Please feel free to stop by and discuss your experiences and your pulls!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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