Pro Tour Fate Reforged: Day 1 Coverage

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Stay tuned for round by round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour: Fate Reforged!

[Day Ended]

A Wild Defiance foils buyout is going down as a result of the card appearing in Infect decks from Team Pantheon. Card may settle in the $6+ range, but the deck needs to Top 8 to maintain the price mid-term.

7:03pm An Infect deck piloted by Austin Bursavich just went to 8-0. Manfield also takes his Burn build to 8-0.

7:01pm: Jon Finkel  (Infect) vs. Martin Muller (Abzan)

Lingering Souls being called out as a good speed bump against Infect.

6:50pm: Frank Karsten (Affinity) vs.  Osman Ozguney (Faeries)

Karsten goes to 7-1 with a traditional Affinity Build.

Each of Infect, Affinity and Burn have a player at 7-0.

6:30pm: Alexander Haybe breaking down the Jeskai Control Archtype on camera

6:10pm: Rnd 7: Marco Lombardi (Merfolk) vs. Seth Manfield (Burn)

5:44: Rnd 7: Lee Shi Tian (Burn) vs. Makihito Mihara (Grixis Twin)

Whoa! Mihara is running one of my top underated cards of Fate Reforge, with multiple copies of Humble Defector in his innovative deck list.

Marco Lombardi is 6-0 with Merfolk.

4:55: Rnd 6: Andrew Cuneo (Infect) vs Ken Yukihiro (Abzan)

Yukihiro takes the match.

Tasigur on camera yet again. Thoughtseize featuring in game after game. Noble Hierarch’s demise after Pod banning widely exaggerated.

4:43pm: Rnd 6: Kentaro Yamamato (Abzan) vs. Shuhei Nakamura (Jeskai Control)

Yamamato takes the match, finishing Shuhei off with Siege Rhino, a card that continues to earn it’s keep in the format.

Lingering Souls has seen multiple release at uncommon, but the only mainstream foil release was the original, and those have been sitting at half their peak value for a while without a home in modern. Today, the card is all over the place, and should easily regain $10+.

3:56pm Frank Karsten and Affinity build being featured in the metagame overview with BDM.

3:45pm: Rnd 5 Jelger Wiegersma (Twin) vs. Justin Maguire (Jeskai Control)

Restoration Angel and Blade Splicer getting some camera time in the Maguire deck. A wild top Splinter Twin top deck gets spoiled by Wear/Tear.

3:09: Rnd 5 Patrick Chapin just played a Gurmag Angler and protected it with a Stubborn Denial…in Modern!!! (bowing respectfully to the master despite his losing to Affinity.)

3:04pm: Rnd 5: Paul Cheon (Abzan) vs. Stanislav Cifka (W/B Tokens)

Cifka deck noteable for running Bitterblossom & Intangible Virtue (keep an eye on foils, but remember the card has been reprinted multiple times). Sorin, Solemn Visitor in the Cifka deck, over the older version.

2:52pm: Eidolon of the Great Revel being discussed in the burn deck tech. This card is still too low around $6 and should break $10 this year for sure, especially if Burn does well this weekend.

Just snapped up some copies of Chord of Calling around $3, promo Tasigurs around $20 and whatever Ghostways I could find overseas under $10, which wasn’t many. M15 foils currently have a 4x foil multiplier so I’m staying away for now.

Sam Black showed off a very sexy Naya Ghostway based deck earlier this week on StarCityGames.com. See it here. Rumor has it that a few pros are actually running the deck, and Ghostway has already been bought out into the $16+ range, with minimal copies remaining online. This was a sub-$8 card last week.

Team Channel Fireball has several members on WGB Junk with Noble Hierarch and Gavony Township.

2:39pm Jon Stern (Abzan) vs Kenji Tsumura (Abzan)

2:15pm: Jelger Wiergersma (Twin) vs. Milos Stajic (Elves!)

  • Chord of Calling features prominently in the Elf deck and is noteable as being undervalued since it’s part of the Ghostway deck as well. I’ve noted well over 100 copies disappear in a short time period.
  • Elves went down in 3

2:07pm: Owen Turtenwald (Infect) vs. Ben Stark (Scapeshift)

  • Team Pantheon reportedly all on UG Infect

2:01pm: 1st on camera Modern match, Round 4: Shehar Shenhar (Burn) vs. Seth Manfield (Burn)

  •  Shenhar has the black splash for Bump in the Night vs. Mansfield’s white splash for Boros Charm
  • Games are tight involving a high degree of basic math strategy

1:59pm: The guys predict the following archtypes as defining the metagame:

  • Scapeshift, Abzan, UWR Mid-Range, Aggro

1:49pm: Rich Hagon and Randy Beuhler counting down the 10 most important cards in Modern:

Notable that Siege Rhino has gone from being “unplayable” in Modern a few months back to a #2 ranked staple based on it’s role in Junk decks!

———————

And so begins our only Modern format Pro Tour of 2015, and a defining signal for Modern hype leading up to the release of Modern Masters (2015 Edition) at the end of May via Grand Prix Las Vegas and two other mirrored tournaments in Europe and Asia.

Far from abandoning the format, WOTC seems as committed as ever to ensuring we all have a powerful, yet diverse evergreen format to cling to, with many rewards for deck builders who find innovative ways to address the metagame.

Love ’em or hate ’em, the recent banning of Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time and Birthing Pod has put the usual meta on tilt. MTGO lists have been awash with creative deck lists since the new rules took effect last week and while there may still be a very good chance that stalwarts like Junk, Jeskai/Geist or U/R Storm will be hanging out in the top 16, all signs point to a rogue deck or two storming the castle this weekend in Washington, D.C.

As per usual, the Pro Tour weekends now feature a mix of booster draft (FRF-KTK-KTK) and constructed (Modern) formats with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Modern starting around Noon EST.

The big teams such as ChannelFireball, SCG, and the various Japanese powerhouse squads have been relatively quiet all week, as their best deck ideas hide out in stealth mode, waiting to be unleashed on a hopefully unsuspecting field and scoop up the $40,000 top prize.

For we MTGFinance speculators, the weekend will be an especially important proving grounds for many of the most hyped cards of the format. Here are some early stories worth paying attention to:

Siege Rhino (Foil): Skies the Limit?

At first, many doubted whether this Standard stalwart could make the jump into a format as powerful as Modern. Then they said he couldn’t survive the banning of Birthing Pod. And yet, just a few weeks later, a quick look at the MTGO results shows that Junk lists running the full 4 copies of this swingy beast are all over the place. Whether some version of GBx can take down the tourney is anyone’s guess, but foil Siege Rhino’s are still looking like a buy to me anywhere under $20, perhaps with a target to out around $30 within the year on continued strong results. Given how quickly Abrupt Decay foils broke $80, there seems to be upside on Rhino despite the lack of Legacy play.

Dark Confidant: Heading Down?

It’s hard to believe, but the metagame may still be too unfriendly for this powerhouse card drawing engine to regain lost ground in the Modern meta. With a clear shift from Jund to Junk heading into the tournament, many lists that could run Bob, simply are not. If he doesn’t see play in the Top 16, we should be ready for a shave of $5-10 off his price at least, though the price memory is definitely strong with this sith lord of value.

Geist of Saint Traft: Where’s the Top?

We were picking up copies around $12.50 not so many months ago, but this highly aggressive legend has no staged a comeback just above $20 and could be poised to head back towards the $30+ range if a Jeskai Aggro or Control build finds a seat at the top tables this weekend. The card’s power is hardly in debate, but matchup luck will almost certainly play a role here as the card doesn’t like facing down blockers.

Snapcaster Mage: Free at Last!

In a world with Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time dominating graveyard resources, Snappy had to take a back seat last season, but with the competition taking a dirt nap, there is a very good chance that a strong showing by Esper or Jeskai Control/Mid-Range builds could start a climb into the $50 range by summer. Free from a possible MM2 reprinting due to the exclusion of Innistrad block from the set, Tiago should be good to run the chart until MM3 roles around in 2017 or so.

Paul Cheon: What a story!

Was anyone not on the edge of their seats last weekend watching Paul Cheon face Paul Reitzel at the finals of the team event at Grand Prix San Jose? Paul, the perennial kid brother of the Channel Fireball crew, has been busting his ass at the pro magic game all year, but desperately needed no less than a win at the GP to qualify for the Pro Tour. Demonstrating poise, focus and determination, Empty the Cheons played one of the best matches of the year on camera to earn his shot at the big show. Good luck Paul!

Travis has some great additional ideas on cards to watch over here, so take a look!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

The Vendor’s Views

By: Cliff Daigle

At GP San Jose last weekend, I took some time away from going 3-3 and talked to some of the vendors present. This being the beginning of the new set, I was curious what they were experiencing. I asked everyone the same set of questions, and while some vendors didn’t have much to say, I found them to be very helpful and incredibly well-informed.

I tried my best to approach when business was at its slowest, usually mid-round. I did notice that if you go in to do some major selling, you want to do that when everyone else is playing. More than one vendor had serious haggling going on because they had no other customers at that moment.

So let’s dive into the vendor’s-eye-view!

What was selling well?

There were two categories that were selling well: Modern staple cards like Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, Thoughtseize, Liliana of the Veil, etc. and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon’s alternate art. The vendors I talked to consistently reported that since this was a Limited Grand Prix, they weren’t expecting to do as much business in the staples of Constructed. One vendor reported selling more than 40 Drown in Sorrow at $2 each just before GP Denver. That’s never going to happen at a Limited event. 

What does happen, though, is that vendors are able to target artists’ cards for the events that are coming up. Having a section for each artist (and then going and getting the card signed) was said to increase sales of such cards in a real way.

In talking with vendors, there’s a lot of varying opinion on reprints in Modern Masters 2015. If Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf are there again, those values will take a hit, but not too big. If they aren’t reprinted, the prices will go very high…which is what Modern Masters is trying to keep in check.

Everyone understands that reprints are coming, and it’s rare to have a big stock of anything just sitting and waiting. Keep in mind that vendors are people too, and not above the occasional speculative buying spree.

What were vendors buying a lot of?

There was one card on everyone’s mind: Tasigur, the Golden Fang. Even though we were at a Limited Grand Prix, word filtered around quickly that Mr. Banana was putting up results across formats, and vendors were picking him up for $8 cash. No one had offered more by the end of Saturday.

This is important to note: Please don’t think that vendors aren’t up-to-speed on prices and trends. Often, you’ll see buy prices written on a dry-erase board, simply because those prices change over the course of a weekend or even a day. Even if a vendor isn’t on Twitter for every hour of every day, all it takes is two people in a row asking for the same things to get the antennae up and investigate.

Snapcaster Mage was a card cited as due for growth, and buy prices were creeping upward. Since he’s not going to be in MM2015, you might have room to make a profit now if you buy in at his current tag of about $35, he seems a good bet to hit $50 before next summer.

Several other merchants mentioned that things were in line with their expectations, especially at a Limited GP. For people who make a living buying and selling, it’s nice to have things go the way you believed they would.

What prices were most in flux?

Tasigur started Thursday being bought at $4, and as mentioned, was being bought for $8 by Saturday night.

Liliana of the Veil was creeping upward, and even Steve Argyle was said to be buying them for $65, just so he could alter them. She’s too new to be in MM2015, and the foil versions being given out at Regional PTQs is not scaring people away.

The alternate art of Ugin, the Spirit Dragon kept getting increased, on the buylist and on the retail, and it didn’t stop people from buying this up. There’s a level of perceived scarcity at work, and even though it’s not foil, it’s still gorgeous. The other cards from the Ugin packs are worth nearly nothing, so don’t expect a premium to be attached there.

These promo editions are having semi-predictable effects. Liliana’s promo version isn’t budging her price, but Griselbrand’s GP foil has kept that card under $20. It’ll be interesting to compare where these all end up.

One vendor reported that Omniscience was getting bought up at $12, and that’s a card which is overdue for a spike, considering its power level in Legacy and casual formats.

What other surprises were present?

The vendors I talked to were pleasantly surprised at the demand for the oldest cards. Not just duals or Power, but there were several who mentioned that they had moved a lot of Alpha/Beta/Unlimited cards which had been in stock forever.

You may have heard about Tiny Leaders, and its effect on some prices, but there’s a lesser-known format called 93/94 that requires you to have cards from only the original expansions up to Fallen Empires. These niche formats will never have to be too big to affect prices, because Alpha cards are getting more and more scarce due to collectors anyway, but this format offers a unique combination of rarity and fun. If it gets big, expect the oldest cards to get even more valuable.

There were more than a few Europeans selling Power in order to take advantage of the exchange rate right now. It’s not clear how much Power has gone overseas over the years, but the allure to cash out is a powerful one.

What effect did the recent Banned/Restricted list have on these vendors?

None of the vendors I talked to had a big position on the cards which got banned, no one had a stack of Russian Foil Treasure Cruise or anything. Mostly, they saw it coming, even though some felt that the format had not yet been given time to adapt. It seemed to be a banning due to the number of people playing it, not necessarily the card’s power. Why fight it with Rest in Peace when you can cast the Cruise?

All of them were happy to be picking up Birthing Pod at a low price, due to its power in Commander. Lots of Pod foils have also been injected into the market as a result of the banning, since Pod was a deck people had been playing for years there were lots of players who foiled it out. Multiple vendors pointed to Linvala, Keeper of Silence foils as one that was declining in price.

For the individual, if you’ve wanted that foil Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker, the time may be now. Twin decks might have a great chance to come back and crank those prices up.

Has Legacy grown, compared to a year ago?

Interestingly, even vendors who aren’t based in an area with a big Legacy scene have increased their Legacy business online. More than one vendor had players selling out of Modern and switching to Legacy, simply from faith in a more stable environment. You may hate the Reserved List, but it’s respected as a promise to players.

Commander and other casual formats are unlikely to see such major shifts. Movement on that front is often murky, not many saw the Trade Secrets ban coming.

Vendors are happy to pick up the non-blue dual lands, simply in anticipation. It doesn’t matter that Plateau isn’t big yet, because it’s extremely unlikely to go lower in price. Nowhere to go but up!

Cards that they can’t keep in stock

This was alternate-art Ugin’s party. As mentioned, the buy and sell prices just kept climbing through the weekend and they are going higher still this week. At this point, I’m not sure if it’s from actual demand or from speculative purchases.

Berserk was also in high demand this weekend, as befits one of the best spells in Tiny Leaders. It’s a high cost to get in on this card, but if you’ve thought about getting one, now is the time as demand starts to drive the price higher and higher.

Other Interesting Tidbits

The future of foil Treasue Cruise was predicted to mirror foil Mental Misstep by one vendor. I’m not sure I agree with the scarcity, since it’s third-set uncommon vs. big-set common, but vendors were still buying foil Cruise at around $3, just on value. Drawing three cards for a single mana, Delve or not, is always going to be good. 

Mindslaver was mentioned as a ‘vendor spec’ in that one vendor was buying the stock of other vendors. It’s a candidate for MM2015, it’s been in two sets already, and it’s barely $4. I don’t see how it’ll take off, unless a new supply of Academy Ruins soon makes that combo more of a presence.

Vendors are waiting to see if Tron decks replace Ugin with Karn. It’s not clear if the extra mana is going to be a huge difference, because the ability to play Ugin and then exile just about everything is awfully appealing. If Ugin becomes the new card to rap towards, expect his price to gain significantly.

While Valorous Stance has been pointed out as a card with an amazing set of modes, note that point removal (outside Standard) is much, much better. Path to Exile is one less and ignores the protection mode of Stance. Keep this in mind when you’re considering buying a foil for $10 each.

One last warning: This set isn’t a new Dragon’s Maze, but it’s getting close. There’s only three cards worth more than ten dollars, and to buy a box is to chase the ten cards worth more than the cost of a pack at retail.

I’d like to thank Damyan Brunson of Tier 1 Games, Dustin Ochoa of Amazing MTG, Ben Huang of Gray Ogre Games, Michael Lim of Battle City Games, Jordan Woo of Magic Stronghold, Kyle Lopez of Aether Games, and Jameson Reeves of MTG Card Market. All of these vendors were kind enough to take a little time and talk to me while other players clamored to buy and sell.


 

Modern Pro Tour Watch 2015

By: Travis Allen

This was originally shaping up to be a rather bland Pro Tour. With Treasure Cruise having completely overtaken Modern, resulting in massive shifts in the metagame, it was looking like we were going to get an answer to a question nobody really wanted to ask: “what’s the best Cruise deck?” Thankfully Wizards saved us from this outcome, and in fact gave us more than we could have hoped for.

I’m sure at this point you’re probably sick of reading about the ban list changes, and that’s fair. Sell Grave-Trolls and Worldgorgers, buy everything, blah blah. You’d think it was the only thing that happened in Magic that week. Yet it would be foolish to ignore the fact that we haven’t yet fully felt their implication. Since the announcement there’s been a paucity of Modern events. We’ve seen a handful of dailies, two SCG Modern Premier IQs, and a lot of untested lists posted on Reddit. With very little in the way of results, and some of the world’s best brewers keeping quiet until after the Pro Tour, there’s no way to truly know what is possible in a post-Cruise, post-Pod world. For three glorious weeks we get to pretend Seance is playable and anyone can win any event with any seventy-five, so long as there’s a megathread about it somewhere.

Seven days from now reality will rear it’s uninvited head once again, reminding people that Cranial Plating is still legal, Thoughtseize is still the fun police, and Snapcaster Mage targeting Cryptic Command is why you quit this bullshit format the last time.

Since Khans of Tarkir released card prices have been out of whack, and they’re just now starting to re-align with what we would expect. While Liliana isn’t $40 anymore, plenty of cards still have room to grow, and the Pro Tour results this weekend are going to be a big part of it. Let’s run through some of the cards to watch this weekend.

Liliana of the Veil
Now: $75
Post-Tour Potential: $90-$100

Liliana was a card I pointed to a few days after the B&R update as a definite gainer. She’s at her best when she’s grinding your resources into dust, which is damn near impossible in a Cruise-infested meta. Now that the fear of your opponent top-decking Ancestral Recall is gone she’s back in a big way. Before the update there were copies as low as $45 on TCG. As of Tuesday afternoon, you’re looking at $75 each on TCG. Clearly people were not waiting for the results of the PT to roll in; they knew she was going to be good again and they didn’t want to wait.

For just under two months she was $90 on MTGPrice, and for about eight months she was at least $80. We’re close to those numbers again, so there’s not too much room for her to grow, but I think we could definitely see a higher ceiling than last time. If Abzan decks featuring Thoughtseize, Tarmogoyf, Liliana, and Siege Rhino make as strong a showing as is to be expected, that will at least account for a $5-$10 bump in price.

Where she stands to really gain is during the Modern Masters II boom. We know that Innistrad doesn’t fall within the range of MM2 sets, so she’s safe from a reprint there. We also know there are going to be promos distributed at regional PTQs, but those are going to be in very limited numbers relative to the Modern-playing population. With that RPTQ printing on the horizon, I highly doubt we see more copies this year. Between the possibility that Abzan takes over Modern, a near-zero likelihood of more copies entering the market this year, and another explosion in Modern interest thanks to the upcoming MM2 release, I’d say $100 is well within reach.

Vengevine
Now: $20
Post-Tour Potential: $30-$40

Now that Golgari Grave-Troll is on the loose there’s renewed interest in funneling a stream of creatures into your graveyard again. If this strategy is successful, it’s almost definitely going to include Vengevine. He’s been relatively quiet in Modern for the last few years, but that’s been more of a result of the metagame than a lack of power. Deathrite Shaman meant that any Vengevine strategy was DOA for quite some time, and if it wasn’t DRS suppressing the thing from little shop of horrors, it was decks like Birthing Pod flat out being a better choice. Pent up demand for Vengevine to be relevant has already driven his price from $15 to $20 in the last two weeks since the update. There’s more to this than just fevered dreams of madmen, too: this past weekend two Dredge decks placed in tenth and twelfth at the SCG IQ, each running a full set.

If anyone shows up on camera at the Pro Tour and puts a Vengevine into their graveyard, he gains $5. If it actually wins a few games, we could easily see this break $30, and $40 isn’t out of the question in the short-term. Original copies are now several years old, and with the only other printing a limited-run WMCQ promo, there will be a real constraint on copies if there’s a spike in demand. Remember, though, that Zendikar is on the table for MM2. It’s hard to predict whether a card like this will be reprinted or not, but if there’s a large spike due to PT fervor, ship hard and ship fast. Take the guaranteed money instead of being unnecessarily greedy.

Bloodghast
Now: $10
Post-Tour Potential: $20

As goes Vengevine, so goes Bloodghast. It’s hard to imagine one showing up without the other. Bloodghast has been treading water around $8-$10 for awhile now, and it feels like it’s juuust on the edge of spiking. Any camera time at the PT could cause a buy-out. Like Vengevine though, Bloodghast is liable to be reprinted in MM2, and he seems much more reprintable than Vengevine is. Regardless of what happens this weekend, I’d sell all my excess copies after the Pro Tour.

Snapcaster Mage
Now: $30
Post-Tour Potential: $50

Remember this guy? He sort of disappeared a few months ago. Don’t worry though, he may have been forgotten, but he’s not gone. Unlike Liliana though, Snapcaster didn’t suffer as much after Khans, nor has he rebounded after the update. One may think that this means he wasn’t impacted by Cruise, and therefore his price won’t budge much. One may be wrong.

Even if Snap didn’t take a price hit, the decks he performed well in certainly did. UWR lists were beaten into submission by the brutal efficiency of Cruise. Now that that’s all behind us, I expect UWR decks to come back in a meaningful capacity, just as they were prior to Khans. With them will come a surge in the number of Snapcasters played, which will only help his price. The fact that his price didn’t drop over the last three months mostly indicated that players were unwilling to accept the fact that he was irrelevant, which kept his price shored up. A meaningful return to the metagame would simply increase the strength of people’s beliefs.

What really stands to serve Snap well this time around is that like Liliana, he too is out of contention for MM2. With no reprint visible on the horizon, his price may spiral out of control. That isn’t to say we won’t see him again at all this year, but we know that it at least won’t be there. He’s been $40 in the past, and there’s no real reason he couldn’t be again. PT excitement could well push him towards a $50 price tag in the near future, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that price be relatively sticky for a format staple.

Primeval Titan
Now: $12
Post-Tour Potential: $20-$30

Amulet Combo is most likely to drive Titan towards $30, although there could be other vehicles that get him there as well. In Amulet decks he’s a consistent four-of, and central to the strategy. If only Amulet wants him in Modern, maybe he’s in the $20 range. If it turns out some other deck is in the market for that effect as well, he could clear $25 without a reprint.

Amulet Combo is no joke, by the way. It won this past weekend’s SCG IQ, and recently put up three 4-0 results in a Modern daily. Matthias Hunt had a good run with it a few Pro Tours ago as well, which caused the initial run on Amulet of Vigor. If the pilots can find a reliable way to beat the metagame, this deck is very capable of winning the whole shebang. On that note,

 

Amulet of Vigor
Now: $3
Post-Tour Potential: $5-$8

Hive Mind
Now: $2
Post-Tour Potential: $5-$10

One is the card the deck is named after, and the other has become the de-facto irreplaceable alternate win condition. Amulet already had its day in the sun and spiked to $10 after the deck’s previous performance, but there’s no reason it couldn’t double in value from here. Hive Mind never saw much of a price bump, but if the deck performs well again, I’d be surprised if this didn’t hit at least $7 or $8. Hive Mind is a very unique card that is just begging to destroy any format with Pacts. It’s currently a solid win condition in a format where you have to pay six for it. Imagine some sort of enabler that sneaks it into play on turn three or four? Pfft. Rocketship.

Abrupt Decay
Now: $10
Post-Tour Potential: $15-$20

Abrupt Decay has been a solid investment for over a year at this point. Possibly the best removal/utility spell in both Modern and Legacy, it’s a wonder this is still only $10. It’s been creeping up for months, little by little, and with Abzan poised to dominate the PT metagame, the time for a true price correction may be due. Even better is that Return to Ravnica falls well outside of the realm of MM2.

I don’t know if this will be the event that pushes Decay up towards $20 where it probably belongs, but it’s certainly possible. If it does break $15, I’ll be considering selling my extra copies. I can’t shake the feeling that Wizards wants to reprint Decay this year but maybe that’s an unwarranted fear.

Restoration Angel
Now: $7-$10
Post-Tour Potential: $15-$20

I don’t need to sing the praises of Restoration Angel; you’re all well aware. Instead, let me point out the newcomer in the room, Siege Rhino. Boy that would be one hell of a card to blink in response to a Path, wouldn’t it?

Knight of the Reliquary
Now: $5-$6
Post-Tour Potential: $10+

We’re now two years past the third printing of Knight of the Reliquary. She’s lost some of her former $20 glory, but there’s no reason she couldn’t reclaim some of it. I’m not exactly sure what shell will be best suited to take advantage of her abilities. A list with Dredge elements would certainly supercharge her stats. Perhaps it will be a more traditional Zoo list. I don’t know where we’ll see her, but I know that she’s only got one direction go head from here.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
Now: $4
Post-Tour Potential: $10+

Prime Poobah Jackass of the H8BEARZ clan in both Modern and Legacy. You’re legally allowed to hit anyone that casts this turn two on the play. Any deck with real camera time featuring Thalia should be a catalyst for an overdue price correction. Remember the entire Innistrad block is outside of the MM2 range, which means there is no event on the horizon that would keep her in check.

Geist of Saint Traft
Now: $20
Post-Tour Potential: $30+

As UWR lists are back in vogue with the departure of cruise, so too is Geist. He’s already up from a low of $12 or $13, so there’s less gravy on this train at this point than there was before. Still, a strong performance in a deck like Tribal Zoo or a UWR tempo deck would send him above $30. He’s the WMCQ promo this year, but I don’t see that doing too much to dampen a spike should he perform well at the PT. What seems more likely to be a drain on his success is the growth of Liliana and Thoughtseize decks that have been absent the last several months. Nothing is as debilitating as your turn three Geist being met with a turn three Liliana.

Grove of the Burnwillows
Now: $35-$40
Post-Tour Potential: $45-$50

GR Tron plays both Karn and Oblivion Stone in Modern. Guess which card is both of those, and is already making an impact in Standard and Legacy? Everyone’s favorite ancient dragon Ugin, of course. Tron is the most immediately obvious home for Ugin in Modern, and the work he does there is no joke. Tron always picked on Jund in the past, and the ability to slam Ugin on turn four to clear out Tarmogoyfs and Lilianas in a way that the deck couldn’t before is just savage.

Most of the other pieces of the deck already seem to be value-saturated. Karn and Oblivion Stone are already at basically lifetime highs, Wurmcoil was just reprinted, and Emrakul is on the horizon in MM2. Grove was over $50 this past fall, and a top eight performance could very well get it there again.

 

Goryo’s Vengeance and Through the Breach

Will a better Dredge enabler finally break one of these two cards? Turn one Thought Scour flipping a GGT, turn two dredge GGT into Griselbrand, cast Vengeance, alt-cast Fury of the Horde is a potential two turn win. Is this the year???


 

Pro Tour Fate Reforged Financial Gauntlet & Tiny Leaders Tournament Report

By Guo Heng Chin

I initially planned to write solely about cards to watch during Pro Tour Fate Reforged. However, I’ve had the chance to participate in the first ever Tiny Leaders tournament  in Malaysia over the weekend and friend and fellow Magic player @rezaaba convinced me that I should probably do a report on the event. So today’s article is going to be a two-in-one (talk about value for your time): the first portion discusses the cards which I am keeping an eye on as we count down towards the Pro Tour this weekend and throughout the Pro Tour. The second segment would be a round-by-round report of the Tiny Leaders tournament I attended.

Throwing My Hat into the Ring

The following are cards are possibly undervalued at the moment in terms of their price in relation to the amount of play they currently see and could potentially see. These are cards that could experience a spike if decks they running them performs at the Pro Tour.

Data on the post-ban metagame is sparse, with only five Modern Daily Events (the bans were enforced on Magic Online from 28 January onwards) and two StarCityGames Premier IQs. Going through the data, there is one deck that stood out, Amulet Bloom. It took down last weekend’s StarCityGames Premier IQ and is the most successful combo deck in the Modern Daily Events, comprising of 4.6% of the field. The deck is not exactly dominant, but it seems that reports of the death of Amulet Bloom have been greatly exaggerated. The deck is of interest financially because the namesake card of the deck could spike in price if Amulet Bloom spikes Pro Tour Fate Reforged.

Ain't nobody got time for coming into play tapped.
Ain’t nobody got time for coming into play tapped.

Amulet of Vigor is at $3.05 even though the strategy of the archetype hinges on Amulet. If you are looking to invest in Amulet of Vigor, do keep in mind that it would be a short-term investment as Amulet of Vigor is at risk of being reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, although it escapes my mind what sort of limited archetype in Modern Masters would Amulet fit in.

Thalia may be 2/1 but she is a force not to be reckoned with, as her foes soon found out.
Thalia may be 2/1 but she is a force not to be reckoned with, as her foes soon found out.

I often wonder why Thalia, Guardian of Thraben remains so cheap despite the amount of play she is currently seeing in Modern and Legacy. Thalia is present in Modern Hatebears, Modern Death and Taxes and the occasional Modern Zoo. You can also find her in Maverick and Death and Taxes in Legacy. And decks running Thalia want to run three to four copies of her. Most importantly, Thalia is not going to be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, and by the virtue of being the Guardian of Thraben, we are unlikely to find her anywhere else but on the plane of Innistrad.

Seeing that I have been raving about Tiny Leaders lately, it is worth noting that Thalia is also solid leader in the format. Thalia is reputedly a favorite of Bramwell Tackaberry, the progenitor of the Tiny Leaders, and has been topping of the Winnipeg Tiny Leaders scene.

Thalia is a card that would eventually bump up in price as her current price of $4.38 is out of sync with the amount of eternal play she has been seeing. Unfortunately the chance that her price would be bumped by Pro Tour Fate Reforged looks to be slim, for the fact that the Pro Tour metagame is historically skewed towards midrange or blue-based decks. Thalia is a card I consider a good great long-term investment, at least until the following Modern Masters is announced, which we probably would not see until 2017.

I wrote about the next two cards in my article a short while ago. I am revisiting them today as there were new developments during the two weeks that have passed.

Sphinx's RevelationThundermaw Hellkite

Since the announcement of the bans on 19 January, Sphinx’s Revelation spiked on Magic Online from the 9.8 tickets it was hovering at before settling at 16.8 tickets, but remained at $6.18 on paper, which was pretty much the same price it was at when I wrote my previous article. Modern staples are generally cheaper online due to the larger quantity of boosters being drafted online; when a key component of one of the potential new overlords of Modern is nearly three times more expensive online than its paper counterpart, a price correction is inbound. I think it is paper Sphinx’s Revelation that is due for correction, rather than the digital one.

I mentioned in my previous article – before we got any data on the post-ban metagame – that Thundermaw Hellkite would soar once more if Lingering Souls becomes prevalent again. Lingering Souls was ran in 19.8% of all the decks that moneyed the five Modern Daily Events since the bans were implemented on Magic Online and 18.6% of the top 16 decks (3 out of 16) in the StarCityGames IQ in Washington two weeks back (but none in last week’s IQ in Indianapolis as no Abzan Midrange decks made top 16). Lingering Souls has got its staple status reinstated in Abzan Midrange, one of the most popular decks in the post-ban Modern landscape.

Thundermaw Hellkite could very well be a level one tech at the Pro Tour designed to trump Abzan Midrange, which is predicted to be one of the most played tier one decks at the Pro Tour.  Thundermaw Hellkite plays the role as a curve-topper in Jeskai Geist and Big Zoo. If Thundermaw sees a decent amount of play at the Pro Tour, I doubt Thundermaw’s price would remain under $10 as it is now ($9.25 as of writing). If you are looking to invest in Thundermaw Hellkite, it might be best to consider it a short-term investment due to the possibility of reprint in Magic 2016, as I have explained in my previous article.

Chord in a Post-Pod World

The card struck a chord with deck brewers.
The card struck a chord with deck brewers.

As someone who has lived through the era of $40 Chords, I’ve mentioned on multiple occasions that Chord of Calling is unbelievably cheap at the $3.40 it is at right now. While Chord of Calling was discarded by Birthing Pod decks in the final chapter of the archetype’s evolution in favor of a less combo-reliant build, Chord is now a potential saviour of the archetype.

Jay Lansdaal wrote about a few different Pod shells that could be given a breath of new life with Chord of Calling. The lists harked back to the days of yore when Pod decks were combo decks with a beatdown backup plan. Chord of Calling replaced Birthing Pod in helping you assemble the combo pieces, whose tutoring capabilities also imbued the deck with toolbox capabilities.

Chord of Calling was also seen as a playset in Elves, which finished 9th at the recent StarCityGames IQ in Indianapolis. It could be a fluke performance of that archetype, but we are traversing uncharted territory in Modern, a landscape free from the subtly oppressive dominion of Pod decks, and for all we know Elves might actually be viable now.

Domri's stature is misleading in terms of the amount of value he provides.
Domri’s stature is misleading in terms of the amount of value he provides.

Speaking of Birthing Pod replacements,  Domri Rade is another value engine option as featured in Jay Lansdaal’s Kiki Pod Chord shell and Redditor /u/OctilleryLOL‘s iteration of Kiki Chord. Together with Courser of Kruphix, Domri Rade is a beast of an advantage engine. At $6.86, Domri has a lot of room to grow if decks running Domri performs, especially if Kibleresque Zoo decks becomes viable.

Moonshot Card

This new tech has been floating around for a while, but I’ve only stumbled upon it courtesy of Travis Allen‘s tweet.

Seance for value.
Séance for value.

Redditor /u/hp94 did pretty well with the list which possessed favorable matchups against BGx decks and Affinity. Magic Online user RaptureReady went 3 – 1 in a Modern Daily with a slightly modified list after reading the Reddit post.  Like Pod, the deck is chock-full of value creatures, and  to put it in Travis’ word, it is pretty much a Pod deck that runs Séance instead of Birthing Pod. And from what I’ve read, Séancing a Siege Rhino or Mulldrifter is quite a lot of value.

There has yet to be more results since then, though it has only been a little more than a week ago. Séance looks like a legitimate successor to Birthing Pod and at the bulk price of $0.29, it is a card worth keeping an eye  on for the Pro Tour. It does not take much for a relatively old card like Séance to jump.

Tiny Leaders Tournament Report

The first ever Tiny Leaders tournament in Malaysia was held last week. Shout-out to the tournament organiser Kelvin Seow at HQ Sri Petaling for the initiative and the wonderful players who gave their support to the event. The turnout for the event surpassed our expectations: 15 players for a new format in the local Magic scene.

I ran the Anafenza, the Foremost list which I posted at the end of my article last week. The deck drew its inspiration from Modern Pod decks: it attacks from two angles with a beatdown plan A and Melira combo plan B.

Round 1 – Athreos, God of Passage

A few of the players participating in the tournament built their Tiny Leaders the night before just to play in the tournament. Unfortunately, my first round opponent was one of them and I felt bad jamming a refined Abzan list against him. Kudos to him though, for building the deck the night before (if I recall correctly, he heard of the tournament the night before) and coming to support the LGS in their first ever Tiny Leaders tournament.

1-0

Notes from the round: Tiny Leaders is as competitive as non-rotating formats like Modern and Legacy and tuned decks would walk over untuned lists. This should not be viewed as a downside as it applies to Modern and Legacy, and to some extend, Standard as well. Budget options are available for Tiny Leaders, and a good tier one is Anex and Cymede, which I would be writing about in my next article.

Round 2 – Geist of Saint Traft

My second round opponent, Kean ran a well-tuned Geist of Saint Traft list and the power level and fun of Tiny Leaders manifested itself in this match. Game one was a close grind as we exchanged removals for each other’s haymakers. It felt a bit like Legacy: Kean resolved a Stoneforge Mystic searching for his Sword of Feast and Famine, I ripped a Thoughtseize the next turn and got rid of it.

After bashing at me with Geist of Saint Traft and other pesky evasive creatures and building a board position for the kill the next turn, he tapped out and I managed to resolve a Chord of Calling to assemble the Melira combo.

Sideboard: + Wrench Mind, +Council’s Judgement, +Sin Collector, +Cruel Edict, –Scavenging Ooze, –Dismember -Llanowar Elves, -Sword of Feast and Famine

In game two Kean fell on the wrong side of variance as he mulliganed to five and I proceeded to draw Wrench Mind (my Hymn to Tourach) and Thoughtseize.

2-0

Notes from the round: Kean pointed out a poignant observation about how Tiny Leaders differ from Legacy and Modern. Certain color combinations have access to less removals than they usually do due to the singleton nature of Tiny Leaders. My Dark Confidant survived longer than he should have in game one as Kean did not draw into one of his two answers: Swords to Plowshares or Path to Exile. The amount of card I drew off Dark Confidant allowed me to assemble the Melira combo pieces in the nick of time before he could swing for lethal.

Round 3 – Ezuri, Renegade Leader

Ah, the dreaded Elfball deck. Besides Geist of Saint Traft, Ezuri Elfball was the other deck I dedicated the most sideboard slots to. In game one, I was overruned by  elves as I attempted to develop my board position from a slow opening hand.

Sideboard: +Zealous Persecution, +Drown in Sorrow, +Golgari Charm, -Sword of Fire and Ice, -Thoughtseize, -Lingering Souls

In game two I assumed the control role and sandbagged my removals for key creatures like his Elvish lords, Ezuri and any elf that could generate more than one mana. It is difficult to outsize his board position as he is a swarm deck after all. It was a close back-and-forth battle: I thought my chances were good when I managed to connect with a Sword of Feast and Famine-wielding Anafenza, but he has a Reclamation Sage to remove it before shoring up his board position with elves that grew in to outsize my creatures in power and toughness. I took game two one turn away from a whooping 30 damage Elvish alpha strike on the back of the Melira combo.

I got greedy in game three, keeping a hand with Zealous Persecution and Golgari Charm but only one land which was a Wooded Foothills. Most of my opponent’s elves were 1/1 prior to any lords and I reasoned that if I drew one more of my 18 remaining lands, or one of my four mana dorks, I would be able to reset his board twice. Alas, I saw no lands nor mana dorks until he has an Elvish Champion in play and I was quickly dispatched. Thankfully my opponent, Keith ended up taking down the whole tournament and propping up my tiebreakers.

2-1

Notes from the round: Elfball was slower I imagined it to be. The deck still has one of the fastest board-building speed in the format, but it does not go critical until it could untap with either Priest of Titania or Elvish Archdruid. It is imperative to keep those two off the board or answer them as soon as possible. Allowing your Elfball opponent to untap with either of those in play means facing an exponential growth in the number of elves and a quick trip to the next game.

It is also important to keep Ezuri off the board due to his ability to regenerate other elves. Dismember was MVP here as it gets around Ezuri’s regeneration shield (for other elves, if you could not afford to remove Ezuri first). I would prioritise removing Elfball’s Priest and Archdruid, followed by the lords and Ezuri.

Round 4: Vendilion Clique

Vendilion Clique turned out to be one of the most popular leaders in the tournament as a lot of the participants were Duel Commander players and they ported over their Duel Commander decks. My final round opponent was local alterist extraordinaire, Patterson and he sported some of the most gorgeous-looking basic islands I have seen.

Game one was a drawn-out grind for me to amass a board position amid his flurry of counterspells and bounces. He flooded out in the mid-game as he ripped one too many islands in succession (perils of having beautiful islands), which allowed me to sneak in a Midnight Haunting and bolster my tokens with Gavony Township. An Ancestral Visions did not draw him into the Cyclonic Rift he was looking for and it was game two.

Sideboard: +Reclamation Sage, +Phyrexian Arena, +Wrench Mind, + Sin Collector, +Golgari Charm, -Dismember, -Smother, -Scavenging Ooze, -Swords to Plowshare, -Llanowar Elves.

I took out all my creature removals as there were no targets beyond Vendilion Clique and I have flying spirit tokens to handle that. The excessive number of artifact and enchantment removal stemmed from my fear of Back to Basics and getting Vedalken Shackled out of the game. Rightfully so,  game two would have been lost had I not have a Reclamation Sage in hand when he resolved his Vedalken Shackles.

Notes from the round: Playing against blue was not as dreadful as I initially thought. The lack of board wipes meant that the fight was to resolve a few threats through his counterspells and bounces, and bounces were net negative in terms of card advantage. However, blue does have a lot of deadly enchantments and artifacts post-board that could wreck a tricolor creature-based deck  if left unanswered.

3-1 (finished second)

Overall, the tournament was a hell of an experience. The complexity of Tiny Leaders and the decision trees available definitely felt like playing Legacy, or at the very least competitive Duel Commander. The singleton restriction was one of the factor as it promoted diversity in answers and threats. I have yet to amass enough Tiny Leaders experience to point out its flaws (and I am certain there are some), and from what little experience I’ve had, Tiny Leaders filled a gap for me by providing a format where I can experience the thrills of Legacy at a fraction of its cost and the fun of Commander without the long-drawn out games.


 

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