Last week I wrote about the odds of putting the most sought-after cards from Collector Boosters, and had to update it with the presence of Foil Extended Art Commander cards. I’ve had a lot of requests for information about Set Boosters, and I’m glad to share that with you as well.
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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
This is how I feel every time Wizards announces a new product. The ink isn’t even dry on New Capenna and already we have 5 EDH decks and they have started spoiling Baldur’s Gate cards. It’s a real grind even though sometimes if there is too much time between sets I don’t know what to write about. No chance of that happening here – we have a bunch of Commanders coming out at the exact same time as a bunch of other commanders. I used to do the “quick hits” article just to get the obvious stuff out of the way while we waited for the new cards, but the new cards are here, literally the same week, and quick hits are all we have time for. It sucks that I feel a bit like I am being waterboarded and can’t quite devote the same granularity to my analysis that I’d like, but Hasbro has decided that we need to give them money twice every month so I guess we do what Hasbro says or I have to get a real job. I don’t want to get a real job, I want to talk about New Capenna EDH precon cards.
There is a clear winner, and while the EDHREC scraper is busy picking up more decks and will display them tomorrow, today we have enough to call a clear winner, and it’s the Jund Blitz commander. Blitz is cool as a mechanic since it’s basically unique but it can make a bunch of cards that weren’t all that important before suddenly way cooler.
I don’t know if this card is bound for $20 or not, but if Henzie is this year’s Prosper, it’s a safe bet that this at least triples. We have precedent.
You gotta get in and get out quick, but the potential is there. Myth Unbound is a card that never really saw the play some people expected it to and while Stolen Strategy is a better card, we don’t need Myth to hit $20, we just need it to move, and it will. It won’t even take that much of a push.
This wall is pretty low, I think we’re in for some movement here for sure.
While we’re at it, other Delver is on the move and we could see that crest the $5 mark soon as well. I think there are a lot of copies but I also think it’s never been better than it is in this deck, which might end up being a significant player in EDH moving forward.
This card has basically plateaued and if paper Standard picks up because everyone is bored of Covid (they are where I live) then getting a mythic dargon that makes token for $4 is going to be a story you tell your grandkids about. It’s also perfect in this deck, which is currently the second-most-popular, if that means anything to you. It does to me.
The rest of the deck is mostly goodstuff and while it might be the Chain of Smog, Professor Onyx deck we’ve been waiting for, who even cares anymore?
Hit counters? Where have I seen those before?
Blue pip. Dammit. Etrata would be great in a Mari deck but Mari would be bad in an Etrata deck and also, an Etrata deck would be very, very bad. If there are more hit counters in the future, which is a soft maybe, both of these cards could matter?
Out of all of the Royal Assassin type cards, Kiku is the worst card and the best spec. Everything else is basically a bulk rare and liable to stay that way, but Kiku is from a set where we’ve see bulk rares hit $20 because of EDH if only in the near term. I don’t think this hits $20, but if enough people build Mari decks, Kiku is a player.
The wall seems lower than most but since Kiku isn’t a High Synergy or Top card, it’s going to see less play than most other assassins and it could really struggle to get there.
This is seriously a good commander to play just because everyone makes so much treasure that you could… well, die to decking, probably. If anyone can generate enough treasure to deck you, though, they’re going to win anyway, so it seems like this just draws a ton of cards whether you give them treasures or not.
The data is telling me that the showcase is the better spec, but I would not be caught dead with an AFR showcase card in my deck. I own multiple D&D PHBs from the 2nd edition/AD&D era, I’m not a snob. I understand the reference but this is just too ugly for me to jam in a deck. Card Kingdom wants $5 for this garbage, and with treasure being hot now, I bet they get it.
My gut tells me the better-looking version is the play, maybe even the foil.
The graph of the foil version is very similar. I think if you can get foils for $2, you’ll be happy later. Even the non-foils, which don’t turn into hyperbolic parabaloid potato crisps (they’re not allowed to call them chips for some reason but they can call them crisps? I read the headline and skimmed the article, what do you want from me, it was about Pringles).
There is a lot to like here, honestly. I’ll go more into detail on some of these commanders soon, but for now, I think this set, while super unwelcome, has some unique abilities? I don’t know, I literally haven’t even finished constructing my Prosper deck and they hit us with this BS? It’s too much, too soon. I advise you to do what I don’t do and focus on one thing you feel strongly about and go deep. I try to find a ton of hits because I have to, but you don’t, so don’t or you’ll be miserable. On that cheerful note, Magic is supposed to be fun so go play the stock market already you rascals. Until next time!
You’ll be thankful to hear that I’m taking a week off from talking about Pioneer today – now that we’ve seen the full preview for Streets of New Capenna, I want to do what I usually do right before a new set comes out and have a look at what I think should be decent pickups when we hit peak supply in a few weeks.
New Triomes (All Versions, Probably)
I’m not going to spend too long talking about these, because it’s pretty clear from looking at the original Triomes that these are going to be a success on pretty much any timeline. With the original set of five printed in Ikoria, we just had regular versions and Showcase variants – now we’re getting both of those plus Borderless versions too. Just to make things confusing, it looks like the new Borderless versions are the same style as the old Showcase versions, and the new Showcase versions are a totally different style (and the regular versions are thankfully just normal). Keeping up? Good.
The regular versions of the Ikoria Triomes got down to around $4-5 after release, and the foil Showcases hit a low of around $15-$25, depending on which one you’re looking at (Savai lower, Ketria higher etc.). I’m hoping to see similar (or lower) prices from these ones as well a few weeks after release – you might think that prices will stay higher because people already know how good these lands are, but I’m pretty sure people knew that the Ikoria Triomes were very strong and they were available at fairly reasonable prices for a while anyway.
Regular Ikoria Triomes are now sitting at around $15, with foil Showcases up at $40 or so – I think that given a reasonable amount of time we should see those prices from the new ones as well (if you swap out old Showcases for new Borderless foils – the Borderless are more expensive than the new Showcases and I think they’re likely to stay that way).
Void Rend (Showcase & Gilded Foil)
Void Rend has caught my eye as possibly one of the best spot removal spells that you can put into an Esper+ EDH deck (i.e. anything that’s white, blue, black plus any other colours). Unconditional permanent destruction that can’t be countered is huge for three mana, and I think that this will (or at least should) be going into every EDH deck that can play it for the foreseeable future. It’s almost a shame this doesn’t hit lands too, but I think that it might be a little too good/oppressive if it didn’t have the “non-land” clause on it.
As well as being a future EDH powerhouse (I don’t think I can quite call it a staple because it’s three colours), I think that this card could have potential in more competitive formats as well. Pioneer control decks will definitely be trying this out, and Modern will more than likely give it a shot as well – if they’re playing Vindicate (which they are) then I think they’ll be happy with a little upgrade.
I’m looking for non-foils to get pretty low on this – I don’t think it’ll hit bulk, but $1-2 seems realistic. For the Showcase foils preorders are currently sitting around $12, and I think this should come down a bit in the coming weeks – I’m hoping that we’ll see something like $5-7 but this will be one to keep an eye on and watch out for the low. The Gilded foils are going to be even more difficult to predict, with no preorders on TCGPlayer but a few up on CardMarket for €22+. I think we could definitely see it come lower than that, but by how much I’m not sure – it’ll be a bit of a wait-and-see.
Professional Face-Breaker
Aside from the fact that I absolutely love the name of this card, I think it’s going to be a big player in EDH. EDHREC is already showing it as one of the top cards from New Capenna, and with Treasures now being evergreen in Magic there’s always going to be more support for the mechanic and new things to do with Treasure-related cards. It’ll be easy enough to amass a pile of treasures with Face-Breaker (and other cards), and then churn through your deck using your extra Treasures for mana to cast the cards you’re exiling to Face-Breaker’s ability.
This is a card that I’m going to look to be buying bricks of either in the US or Europe, hopefully at around $1-2 (or even lower if we’re lucky). It should be a great buylist target a year or two out, so be ready to sit back on this one and wait it out.
David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern and EDH. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.
Update 4/29/2022: I’ve edited this to include the drops of New Capenna Commander cards in the last slot of Collector Boosters. Everything should be in multiples of 82 now.
Every set, Wizards is obligated to release a certain amount of information about the drop rate in the different booster products. They don’t want to be specific about things, though, so every new set, I have to look at the changes they’ve announced and figure out the odds of getting the cards we want in a Collector Booster.
It hasn’t been the same formula twice, and we keep getting variations. This time, the big news is the confirmation of a two-step process when determining how rare specific versions are. All versions of a card are combined to be as numerous as the total copies of another card at the same rarity.
So the total number of Extended Art Foil Luxior, Giada’s Gift (a mythic) is equal to the combined total number of Art Deco Foil, Phyrexian Foil, and Art Deco Etched Foil Urabrask, Heretic Praetor. As a result, each of those versions is three times rarer than the FEA Topiary Stomper.
The shorthand version is that first you roll your odds of getting any version of a card, and then you have to figure how many versions are possible for that card. I’ve done it all for you!
The slightly longer version, ignoring individual variations: If you want any card in any foil, looking at the last slot of a Collector Booster, you’ve got a 1/82 chance of getting it in a CB if it’s rare and 1/164 if it’s a mythic. Traditionally speaking, there’s twice as many of a given rare as there is for a mythic, so with 60 rares and 20 mythics from the main set, plus six rares and twelve mythics from New Capenna Commander, the pool is 2/164 or 1/82 for a rare and 1/164 for a mythic.
The annoying hurdle to this set is that you have to figure out how many options there are for a special frame. For some cards, there is only an EA version for you to pull. For others, you might have a chance at Borderless Foil, Art Deco Foil, or Etched Foil Art Deco.
I’m a completionist by nature, a trait which helps and hinders me, so I’m going to lay out your options by number of variants, then card name, then rarity.
First of all, the cards that are available at rare with one variant frame, so you have a 1/82 chance to get these exact cards/versions when you open a Collector Booster:
Extended Art Foil (35) Frequency: 1/82
Main Set: Aven Heartstabber Black Market Tycoon Cemetery Tampering Corpse Explosion Cut of the Profits Cut Your Losses Depopulate Devilish Valet Evolving Door Extraction Specialist Fight Rigging Getaway Car Hoard Hauler Jaxis, the Troublemaker Ledger Shredder Mysterious Limousine Park Heights Pegasus Professional Face-Breaker Rabble Rousing Reservoir Kraken Sanguine Spy Shakedown Heavy Structural Assault Undercover Operative Unlicensed Hearse Widespread Thieving Wiretapping Workshop Warchief
New Capenna Commander: Boxing Ring Mari, the Killing Quill Spiteful Repossession Swindler’s Scheme Tenuous Truce Vazi, Keen Negotiator
Borderless Foil (2) Frequency: 1/82
Shadow of Mortality Topiary Stomper
For reference, Jaxis, the Troublemaker also has a Buy-a-Box and Mysterious Limousine also has a Promo version from the Bundle, but those versions won’t pop up in the Collector Boosters.
Now, the list of mythics that have only one variation.
Extended Art Foil (18) Frequency: 1/164
Main Set: Angel of Suffering Arcane Bombardment Body Launderer Even the Score Luxior, Giada’s Gift Meeting of the Five
New Capenna Commander: Bennie Bracks, Zoologist Threefold Signal Anhelo, the Painter Henzie “Toolbox” Torre Kamiz, Obscura Oculus Kitt Kanto, Mayhem Diva Kros, Defense Contractor Parnesse, the Subtle Brush Perrie, the Pulverizer Phabine, Boss’s Confidante The Beamtown Bullies Tivit, Seller of Secrets
Borderless Foil (4) Frequency: 1/164
All-Seeing Arbiter Bootleggers’ Stash Halo Fountain Titan of Industry
Just to be clear, there’s a Game Day Promo version of All-Seeing Arbiter, but we won’t see that in the Collector Boosters.
Now things get trickier. I’ve tried to break these rares into their combinations. I think I’ve got it right, but if you catch errors, please hop into our discord and let me know.
The frequency here is referring to any particular version. You still have a 1/82 chance to get any version of Brokers Ascendancy, but a 1/164 chance to get the Gilded Age foil.
Gilded Age Foil and Gilded Age Gilded Foil (20) Frequency: 1/164
Brokers Ascendancy Cabaretti Ascendancy Endless Detour Evelyn, the Covetous Fleetfoot Dancer Hostile Takeover Incandescent Aria Jinnie Fay, Jetmir’s Second Maestros Ascendancy Maestros Diabolist Obscura Ascendancy Obscura Interceptor Ognis, the Dragon’s Lash Rigo, Streetwise Mentor Riveteers Ascendancy Soul of Emancipation Toluz, Clever Conductor Unleash the Inferno Void Rend Ziatora’s Envoy
Art Deco Foil and Etched Foil Art Deco (4) Frequency: 1/164
Errant, Street Artist Giada, Font of Hope Scheming Fence Tenacious Underdog
Skyscraper Foil and Borderless Foil (5) Frequency: 1/164
Next, the list of mythics with two special frames.
Art Deco Foil and Art Deco Etched Foil (1) Frequency: 1/328
Sanctuary Warden
Golden Age Foil and Golden Age Gilded Foil (5) Frequency: 1/328
Falco Spara, Pactweaver Jetmir, Nexus of Revels Lord Xander, the Collector Raffine, Scheming Seer Ziatora, the Incinerator
Finally, the mythics that have three special frames. There’s no rares with this many, they max out at two.
Borderless Foil, Art Deco Foil, Art Deco Etched Foil (3) Frequency: 1/492
Elspeth Resplendent Ob Nixilis, the Adversary Vivien on the Hunt
Art Deco Foil, Art Deco Etched Foil, Phyrexian Foil (1) Frequency: 1/492
Urabrask, Heretic Praetor
We can compare this set’s rarest cards to the rarest cards of previous sets, because I get to do this every couple months:
set
Odds of a specific foil rare
Odds of a specific foil mythic
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
1/136
1/272 up to 1/544
Innistrad: Crimson Vow
1/74
1/171
Innistrad: Midnight Hunt
1/75.5
1/151
Forgotten Realms
1/63
1/126
Strixhaven
1/154.5
1/309
Kaldheim
1/64
1/128
Modern Horizons 2
1/126.5
1/253
Commander Legends EA Foils
1/204
1/400
Streets of New Capenna
1/82 to 1/164
1/164 to 1/492
That’s the general gist, but let’s talk about some card-to-card comparisons.
Card/Treatment
Set
Odds of pulling it from a Collector Booster (approx.)
Phyrexian Foil Vorinclex
Kaldheim
1/256
Japanese-Language Alternate Art Time Warp Foil
Strixhaven (Mystical Archive)
1/309
Foil Extended Art The Meathook Massacre
Innistrad: Midnight Hunt
1/151
Foil Fang Frame Sorin, the Mirthless by Ayami Kojima
Innistrad: Crimson Vow
1/171
Extended Art Foil Jeweled Lotus
Commander Legends
1/400
Phyrexian foil (or foil-etched) Jin-Gitaxias
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
1/544
Blue Soft Glow Hidetsugu
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
1/219
Green Soft Glow Hidetsugu
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
1/444
Red Soft Glow Hidetsugu
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
1/1828
Phyrexian Foil Urabrask, Heretic Praetor
Streets of New Capenna
1/492
Your eyes do not deceive you: The rarest mythics in SNC are more than twice as rare as a blue Hidetsugu, and slightly rarer than the green version. Additionally, they are slightly more rare than the FEA Jeweled Lotus, and the rarest cards from modern sets have that 1/400 target in mind for chase versions.
I hope that this breakdown of the math helps inform your buying, and if you have questions or caught errors, please let me know on Twitter or in the ProTrader Discord! I’m happy to discuss methods and results there.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
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